 Hey everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sussman joined today by Jim Sottis of FanDuel Well, we got some long shot bets for you NFL awards season. It's about a year away It doesn't mean we can't make some money on it right now. What's up, Jim? Yeah, it's all good Greg I think they're thinking here for me at least is that if you're gonna lock up money for this long You better take some long shots and see what happens because I'm been Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson There aren't odds probably not gonna move too much before week one So let's take some long shots guys who may have shorter odds once season arrives And then if they do pan out like Lamar Jackson did last year, we can benefit quite a bit So shooting for some longer ones here. How are you doing? I'm good man? I'm excited I'm just waiting for sports to kind of get back in there with the NFL It's like they're going full steam ahead. Obviously NASCAR is coming back golf is coming back Hopefully the other sports aren't far behind Let's talk about some of these longer shot bets that we want to place and we're gonna go with your boy To start this off in Denver We talked a lot about how that Denver offense improved that they knew what they had to do in order to keep up Pace with the Chiefs they bring in Melvin Gordon They draft Jerry Judy and that means you're buying drew lock at plus 8,000 to be the NFL at VP Yeah I think that the reason that we want to buy into drew lock is just because situation matters a lot for a quarterback And we can get a quarterback with 80 to one odds who has pieces around him as good as what drew lock has right now It's at least intriguing and we can question drew locks talent all we want Which we should because our sample on him in the NFL is very small He faced a lot of really poor competition and he was a second-round pick Those are all things that are working against him But now he's throwing to Cortland sudden Jerry Judy KJ. Hamler Noah fans Albert Oka Wabanam There are so many guys in this offense who bring you can help make up for mistakes The quarterback may make and I think that's a good thing for drew lock But there's also some good volatility in what drew lock does He is willing to throw the ball down field He can do so well because he has a big arm and he can kind of run a bit He's pretty athletic about similar to Justin Herbert from an athleticism perspective and could add some from that perspective as well The issue with drew lock is that you need an MVP bet to have the potential to at least go to the playoffs And I think the good thing here with drew lock is that not only did the Broncos beef up their past catchers But they also added some really big pieces via trade prior to the NFL draft as well So looking at drew lock the odds that he does win MVP probably aren't that big But I think they're better than the implied odds 80 to 1 Especially when you consider how good the talent is around him, you know again our sample is small on him But the past catchers he has now are so much better than what he did last year And he's at least shown flashes at times of having really high upside So I think we're gonna swing with the fences here give drew lock and try and see if the Broncos can't surprise in 2020 Pieces around drew lock. They look really really good And as you mentioned the MVP, especially the quarterback spot relies on so many of those other offense of weapons They're building it in Denver They compete keep up pace and surprise people in the AFC West Eight one. Well, that's too big of a number for us to let go. We like that with drew lock right now But he's not the only quarterback That's a long shot that Jim is betting on because when you have to bet on a jet to win the MVP Yeah, have to according to his honest. It's his team. It's Sam Darnold 101 why not Jim? Yeah, I think that's kind of where I'm at here, too Is why not and I think that between these two quarterbacks we discussed I like the value on Sam Darnold more than like the value on drew lock because Darnold was a top three pick in the NFL draft He is very young and those are things that you like as far as making progression and going to the next level This is also Sam Darnold's third year in the NFL Which should give him better acclimation to this league This is his second year that in case and we can question Adam Gase all you want But the continuity around having a second year in that same offense should be a benefit for Sam Darnold now with drew lock We talked a lot about the situation I think that's sneakily Sam Darnold situation has gotten a lot better too Specifically because of the offensive line They've kind of taken a similar approach to what the Buffalo Bills did last year where they threw a lot at it and free agency Creating a lot of competition, especially along the interior So the interior is gonna be better But there's also a chance to get better at left tackle with Mackay beckton being there Maybe George fans or Chuma adoga can step up and play right tackle So the offense line will be a lot better, but even with a bad offensive line in the past We had seen sparks from Sam Darnold We've already forgotten about what he did over the final four games in 2018 He also had some good stretches at times last year as well This is for a guy who's entering, you know, he's still very young and entering his third year in the league So he's seen flashes and Sam Darnold the talent around him is better They've added for shot pyramid and Denzel Minster a place Robbie Anderson a wide receiver He gets Chris Herndon and Ryan Griffin for a full year and he gets a second year in a system I think that all bodes well for Sam Darnold He's in a big market Which should get him a lot of name value This division is pretty wide open where anyone could win it that can help the Jets out as well So I think that between Locke and Darnold I prefer Sam Darnold at 101 Just because both these guys are in situations that are better than they were last year And their odds don't necessarily reflect that The situation on offense is definitely better for Sam Darnold The second year in a system usually better for a quarterback What I like best about his chances is the fact that New England doesn't have Tom Brady anymore And you have the bills that are looking good Acquiring to find digs Josh Allen hopefully taking another step But if things go right for the Jets they can make some noise In the AFC East that offensive line as you mentioned Jim very much improved here And as long as you make a little bit of noise In the MVP conversation Well it starts in earnest If Sam Darnold could have a big time year in Adam Gaze's offense 101 is way too big of a long shot for him I like that bet a lot I like it more than drew a lot But perhaps my favorite long shot bet that you're on today Is the defensive player of the year award And Miles Garrett is that at 33 to 1 Miles Garrett had a fantastic year last year before it ended Well terribly of course in Pittsburgh Now he's back, he's reinstated He's gonna start the year and hopefully get his head on straight But he certainly has the talent to be the defensive player of the year And at 33 to 1, like I said It's my favorite bet here on today's show Yeah I think that you look back to last year Like you said, Miles Garrett was in contention to win this award then Before the suspension came down He had 10 sacks already before that suspension began That's a year after he had 13 and a half sacks the year before Miles Garrett, a former first overall pick Has shown to be a majorly effective player in the NFL The thing I like about Miles Garrett too If we're talking about awards betting Is that voters do tend to value team success And the Cleveland Browns offensively Have made a lot of gains this year So the odds that they do well enough For players on their team to get consideration For awards betting goes up The better that they get on offense And I think that they have done exactly that Which benefits Miles Garrett Who is 33 to 1 to win defensive player of the year He is entering his fourth year He has shown sack productivity The ability to put up flashy stats in the past And it's going to be a team that gets a lot of buzz Because of the Browns And they always get a lot of buzz as well So the best player on a potentially improving team Who has the ability to post a lot of really good stats That's all really good for Miles Garrett Now if he were a bit shorter than this I might be hesitant because maybe voters shy away Based on the incident last year Maybe they don't want to back someone Given the negativity around Miles Garrett's name But I think at 33 to 1 That's long enough to account for those concerns on my end For a player who is just so gosh darn talented On what could be a really fun team We've been calling the Browns A potentially really fun team for a good decade round And as you mentioned the hype surrounding them It usually is bigger than the actual team's success But if this team is successful And Kevin Zafanski's run-based attack Allows for close games And Miles Garrett to be a force on defense Well, it's well worth putting it down at 33 to 1 Yeah, there's bad juju there See what I did Bad vibes as well But Miles Garrett has the talent As a former first overall pick To certainly become the defensive player of the year At 33 to 1 You don't want to miss it Now let's move to the comeback player of the year Where this list not as big or as lengthy As some of these other categories You like Matt Stafford here Only 9 to 1 plus 900 to get a map And Stafford again has a talent In a good year last year Especially from a fantasy perspective Playing for Matt Patricia Who are the other players that are involved In this mix along with Matt Stafford That allows you to like him here and 9 to 1 Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of this award in general Because it is pretty ambiguous There are a lot of ways you could go with it And it's just it's kind of amorphic And so I generally don't want to enter this market However, I think that the odds of Matthew Stafford Being as long as they are Are kind of what draws me here And it kind of harkens back to what we discussed With Drew Lock and Sam Darnall At least with Sam Darnall Where the division is a little bit open for grabs Because the Packers made some weird offseason moves The Vikings traded away Stefan Diggs And lost a lot of talent defensively The Bears are the Bears So there is some room for the Lions To outperform expectations Which is good for Matthew Stafford There's also the thing that Matthew Stafford Before he got hurt last year Was really good He was the fourth most efficient pastor On a per-drop-back basis Based on number of fires metrics Before he went down with that injury That Darrell Bevel scheme of play action And let it rip Was working out really well for Matthew Stafford He also plays it Doors, which I like Because it does help inflate his stats And he has some good talent around him So I think that there is some mobility here For the Lions to outperform expectations That bodes well for him And Stafford has shown He can put up good individual stats I kind of think that's what I want In order to enter into this market Now again, it depends on the number If you can't get Matthew Stafford at 9-1 Which is what you can get at Fandil Sportsbook I'd probably just avoid this award entirely But if you can get someone like Stafford at this number Then I'm willing to bite Just because we've seen the ability To put up really good numbers He should qualify for the award Because he missed so much time last year And I think that there is a lot of Pads for Stafford to be in contention here So Stafford, the one guy You can really get me to bite In what is a largely pretty unattractive award The players that qualify Are relatively arbitrary, right? Like you don't know who's going to step up Who really comes back from something Stafford comes back from the major back injury last year And as a quarterback If he could perform, like you said At the same level as he did last season He would probably be a favorite here At 9-1, it's worth taking a shot on It's a tough award to predict None of these other ones aren't But this one, we don't even know the The categories essentially, right? We don't know all the players That will be involved, at least for some of these Other ones that are going up After the next couple of offensive Defensive rookie of the year We know who the rookies are We don't necessarily know the players That are coming back from anything quite yet Matthew Stafford, 9-1 though A good bit of venting Especially being a quarterback Let's move on to offensive rookie of the year We talked a lot about the winners and losers And the players that stood out And stocked up, stocked down Coming out of the draft And one player that we both liked a lot Was Cam Acres In a position to really be successful In his rookie season You can get him to be the offensive Rookie of the year at 20-1 right now Which is really good odds Because he's going to be a really good offense With a team that has already shown success Running the football In fact, they had a potential MVP at that spot So maybe Cam Acres could be the rookie of the year Yeah, I definitely think so Especially at 20-1 Because of a lot of the reasons you mentioned And I think that when you look at The Rams decision making That tells you a lot about what they think About Cam Acres as a running back Because they let Todd Gurley go for contract issues But you look back to last year Malcolm Brown Never really got a ton of work Despite the fact they were trying to conserve Todd Gurley Daryl Henderson was inactive Down the stretch last year Even in week 17 Where they had literally nothing to play for Daryl Henderson did not play For that entire game effectively So that kind of tells you Where they're at with him That means that Cam Acres can come in And be the starter on day one He can be the starter on day one For a team that I think Has a better offensive line And a better offensive scheme than perception Because they really performed poorly last year But part of that was injuries They got better as a year went along They got new talent in there And I think that adding back those guys who were hurt Should give them a good competition level For the coming year So I think the situation for Cam Acres Not all that bad We saw at Florida State He was able to catch passes He was able to be pretty effective Despite a bad offensive line there as well He should go to the Rams here And be pretty heavily involved In this offense The thing that I like about the Rams too is They're gonna have to score some points this year Which bodes well for Cam Acres Because that defense They ignored it For the second round They went with Cam Acres and Van Jefferson And they lost a lot of talent defensively Yeah, I mean Jalen Ramsey And Aaron Donnell are awesome But they got a lot of holes still defensively I think the Rams offense Is gonna have to put up a lot of points That could benefit Cam Acres From a numbers and a statistics perspective So he is a high profile position On a team that should get a lot of notoriety For better or for worse And on a team that's gonna have to score points And I expect his role To be pretty good from day one A lot of things line up really well for Cam Acres And I think that at 20-1 A really good number to get For a running back who has a lot of talent Is in a better situation Than I think the perception would allow The Rams ignored the defense They ignored the offensive line Instead they went with weapons Cam Acres is certainly qualifying As a weapon about a team that as you mentioned Ignored Darrell Henderson Ignoring our boy Malcolm Brown And allowing Cam Acres to hopefully step up Step into a starting role Or at least a major role in this Rams offense And be successful This is the first pick that the Rams had all week And they used it on a guy That is going to play immediately This couple of years ago Todd Gurley was certainly in the conversation With the NFL MVP And those knee issues began Why can't Cam Acres At least be in the conversation With Rookie of the Year? He can And he will One last award we want to get to And that is the defensive Rookie of the year This one's always a little bit tougher So let's go with the name we know And that is Trevon Diggs The younger brother of Trevon Diggs Who spurred Maryland that bastard But nevertheless, Trevon Diggs In a spot in his rookie season To at least have some success initially Yeah, when you can go to Bama It's hard for me to fault someone For skipping out on Maryland So Trevon Diggs And obviously worked out pretty well for him But there's also a couple of big pluses here For Trevon Diggs When it comes to award betting The first one is that he plays For the Dallas Cowboys That means he is going to get National attention from day one The Cowboys, as we talked about before Are a good team Which should inflate voters' willingness To vote for this guy And that's a good thing for Trevon Diggs Also, he's projected to start right away With Byron Jones being gone The Cowboys had a pretty major need at corner And now Trevon Diggs can step in on day one Start for that team Gets the numbers Gets notoriety and rackups and stats That's all really good Like you said, we've got Name value Trevon Diggs because of Stefan He played at Alabama Which means he was on a national stage A lot during college So, name recognition High profile team A good team that should win a lot of games In an automatic starting role When you're getting all that for 26-1 I'm pretty intrigued about buying it Look back at past Defensive rookie of the year War of Winners who've seen A good number of corners get there In the Nazi distant past It's a pretty wide open award As far as which position Does wind up winning it As opposed to things like MVP So, I'm willing to go with A guy like Trevon Diggs here Talented player Interesting situation Given the team he's playing for And the fact that they'll start on day one I think that all adds up To be a really intriguing bet For 26-1 The fact that he plays to Dallas Cowboys Is going to have that national spotlight It's going to have a major role To start off the season That's a lot of reasons to like Trevon Diggs All he needs is a couple of big games In prime time And everyone's going to know his name And it helps that his older brother Is already a successful NFL player A lot to like about Trevon Diggs And it's what? There's a number 26-1 It's worth taking a shot on here At least right now When it's still early That's going to do it for us Here on the fan you'll hurry up Jim, I appreciate the time Good luck with these bets I appreciate it Greg, looking forward to talking With some NASCAR next week with you It should be a whole lot of fun And you're going to get to know A lot about that sport In the not so distant future First League legends Now NASCAR I'm ready, man I'm excited to get into it For Jim Zanis I am Greg Salsman Thanks so much for watching We'll see you next time And stay safe, everybody