 Okay, very good morning folks. It is Wednesday the 21st of July So I hope you're doing well and good to be back in the hot seat again Looks like I've missed quite an interesting two days in the markets and yeah last night We finished up 1.5% in the S&P around 1.62% in the Dow and 1.23% in Nasdaq 100 and so reversing in large part a number of the or the losses that were observed on Monday as people started to freak out a little bit about the Global impact on the recovery given the emphasis on the Delta spread of COVID-19 So things stabilized Yesterday and this is looking at a chart of the S&P 500 and with particular emphasis Bloomberg were putting on last night on the 50 day moving average Which you can see on the bottom chart on the pink line, which the markets responded too well Really going all the way back through year-to-date and in fact taking us back to really January February March May and June as well as then earlier this week having tested at that key level before some dip buyers have Come back in now in terms of where we're trading at the moment I mean we were looking at the S&P chart I think it was yesterday morning in the briefing and on the daily obviously a nice respect of that rising trend line With that 50 DMA just helping technically find a bit of a footing on the downside I did find the narrative of COVID a little bit difficult to comprehend of being such a weighted impact And I think yesterday in beginning of the week really goes to show just how behavioral the market is Because the Delta variant as we know is highly transmissible more so than any other Permitation of the virus so far and it was always going to become the most dominant strain of COVID-19 and subsequently then likely to impede Economy's ability to reopen perhaps on the predefined schedules that they they were putting out And so I don't think it's really wholly surprising But certainly and it's it's caused the market to question What the next six months of this year looks like and so I think the Monday dip was a little bit like calendar and then the kind of trigger points all fell in place and the market started Just trade with the momentum. So coming in yesterday, you know, the most important Mechanism of course is that you know from a policy setting point of view Which ultimately is is key for the medium term direction If anything this just plays into the hands of the Fed to keep a Commodative policy for as long as possible really to ensure a smooth Recovery and this Delta kind of spook if you like in the beginning of the week is a key component, of course of which is Going to find the pace and time of Tapering so I think a respect of the bounce technical indicators I think fundamentally I think perhaps Monday a little bit overdone on the behavioral side People just chasing that move downward and so then seeing a nice bounce from yesterday's session Elsewhere otherwise from this morning The other thing is looking at the dollar the dollar despite what I've just mentioned about the Fed and the dollar Continues to remain a little bit firmer. It's just popped up a little bit as UK and European participants have come into the market. We're training up about one tenth of a percent in the Dixie But on the daily chart, this is looking at the Dixie and we were looking about a week ago on that trend line going back from I guess this was September of last year and the retest that we had at the end of March beginning of April And that was shackling some of the dollars appreciation Earlier in the month, but a bit of a breakout of that does now technically mean I think the Dixie's got a little bit of room still to go on the upside And that's going to be quite telling of course for these major pairs I thought cable was particularly interesting Because we were talking about this key level of testing that double bottom of the March April low It's on the daily chart and cable and you can see then yesterday a breakdown of that Saw us have a quick run down to that level that was last printed going to the early February the 4th of February of which we respected pretty much to the tick before finding a bit of a flaw Still trading at the moment around a 136 handle and so within a 25 people so proximity to that low So it's still warrants watching that at the moment as I said with some technical space in the Dixie for upside and With that as well then means that the euro dollar pair is also a little bit susceptible to a retest down At the lower bound of its recent price movement Yesterday session low does coincide with around the s1 on the daily pivots in the futures It's a worth keeping an eye on that as well But looking a little bit heavy here with some space on the technicals for a bit of a deeper move And to materialize at least for the time being in those major currency pairs the other one of course, you know Wrapping in the COVID situation This is looking at Aussie dollar on a on a daily chart and Australia's really been battling They're on the COVID front in New South New South Wales We've had Sydney on repeated rollover lockdowns because of the spread of the Delta variant and then also Melbourne as well So two of the most populous areas of Australia and despite the economic Improvements through is seeing you know really spectacular jobs Market return that we've had that's consequently led to Some more of the hawkish tone of late from the central bank the idea being that the second half of the year It's probably going to look materially different from a growth perspective and all of this getting baked into price And so again from a technical perspective We've still got a little way to run until we get down to really the late November lows in Aussie dollar Which would be around seventy two sixty six. We're trading a seventy three handle at the moment So that the similarities across these major dollar-based pairs is that there's there's some room here Perhaps for an extension of some of the directional trend that's been materialising materializing of late At least until the dollar index starts to find a bit of a resistance point a bit further up We're training ninety three twelve at the moment ninety three kind of fifties the key area Which would which marked that late March early April top in the Dixie Interesting from a correlation point of view is something to be aware of despite the dollar strength at the moment And I'm focusing much more on where we are at 7 a.m. This morning in London and precious metals are actually picked up and so gold and Silver which would typically move in an inverse relationship to the dollar. That's not happening this morning So worth keeping that in mind and updating that in terms of the way that you're looking at correlations in the very short term Gold's just popped up to have a bit of resistance met at its pivot But just eradicating overnight losses and back to pretty much flat on the session and a pretty similar drill for silver Which actually silver had a nice technical move through Let me just quickly mark this up. So just take off my marker so silver's just kind of broke out of that range that was relatively holding through the Later part of yesterday's session just pop through there and the pivot when the pivot level was also pretty strategic point Technically of resistance and that just helps us extend the the gains up to the nearest clearest point Which was the R1 And the previous top of that range that was seen before the downward move that came when the US entered a session yesterday So nice technical breaks there of moves Helping in the pressure space again that move there the break of the secondary level with the pivot and then a momentum chasing exit At the first point the R1 with those previous highs. So Worth bearing that in mind for for silver other asset classes, how are they looking this morning you've got WTI crude obviously got got hit quite badly over the last couple of sessions With the whole COVID demand implications and had a bit of a recovery yesterday, but we're still Trading generally lower. So we're locked in a bit of a range at the moment between pivot 66 34 and the upside late US high Coinciding with the R1 on the futures market today the daily pivots and around 67 63 or so. So just looking at that as the near-term price activity at the moment You can see quite a prevalent Candle here of a negative fashion that was printed at half nine and the rationale for that of course was that we had the crude oil Infantries from the API last night. We saw a build of 806,000 unless we're anticipating a drawdown around five and a half million So a very surprised build there is what jolted prices lower Cushing was a drawdown though of three point five seven million That's pretty deep and gasoline a build of three point three one million build. So quite conflicting signals down the data Quite a knee jerk reaction lower overnight and the reference point now is set for the DOEs this afternoon In the infantry data, but not too much in a way of a lasting reaction there But certainly did bump prices a little bit in the overnight late session All right, well, let's get stuck into a couple of headlines and talk about a few different things and gonna kick things off first with Netflix Netflix had their earnings last night and we did see some quite large Girations in their share price in extended trade. They added one point five four million customers in Q2 That was actually above and less expectations of one point one two million And their own April estimate that they issued of one billion So they exceeded as far as Q2 was concerned But their outlook was what caused the initial fall of in excess of six percent in aftermarket trade And that's because they expect to sign up three point five million new customers in the period ahead Trailing the five point eight six million the analysts were projecting so significantly lower amount for the force coming quarter Their shares did initially drop about six point six percent, but actually if you look at them There after they recovered quite quickly The intrigue generally over their plans to delve in the video game market Somewhat helping offset the weakness in its core business and their shares actually pretty flat in the end in fact so actually If you think about it, I think it was pretty astute timing really and they put out that news on the gaming side last week They would have known for well what their subscriber numbers were going to look like and so why not put in this tantalizing prospects of tapping into this humongous market of gaming To offset then quite a negative period ahead in terms of your core business. So Some could argue fairly well managed there from Netflix But they've obviously got a deliver on the goods and I think it was into the end of the year When they're anticipating and getting this video game started their business up and running Something to be mindful of on the infrastructure side This kind of drags on again Where are we with this so senator majority leader Chuck Schumer's attempt to begin Senate debate today? It's still unfinished by parts and infrastructure bill is on track to fail the Republicans saying that there's no way a deal can be reached by then and that they won't vote to open debate without text spelling out the deal Schumer on Monday scheduled a Wednesday test vote to begin debate It would need 60 votes including 10 Republicans if all Democrats and independents voted yes So I'd say the likelihood of this is that they're not going to kick off those discussions those deliberations just yet again from a Politics point of view in the US. It's kind of they have a vote to have a vote and then that leads to initial Opening conversations before they then start to get into the nuts and bolts of the actual voting on the deal and so a lot of the Democrats looking at this as a potential opportunity to just push things forward And so that then they can start discussing and fleshing out the deal the Republicans want something more definitive on the table So this isn't really I would say cause for concern and markets clearly aren't reflecting that at the moment And I think that remains the case This is kind of just dragging its heels a little bit But we'll monitor it as we go further forward, but I don't think it's likely to begin that debate today Updates pending Another thing that I thought was particularly interesting was this the Biden administration officials said yesterday that they're starting to see Signs of relief for the global semiconductor supply shortage And this is particularly important of course because it is that supply shortage Which has been the chief reason that's really elevated Used car and truck prices, which as you'll know has made up the proportional impact of the underlying CPI price pressures in North America But also globally experiencing the same thing here with used cars in the likes of the UK as well so The thing that they're talking about now is commitments for Manufacturers in the US to make more automotive grade ships for carmakers that have had to idle their production and and thus leading to those price squeezes that we've been seeing Chairs of Ford GM crisis parent company extended gains on the back of that news during US trading hours and they all touched intraday highs at the point of when that hit, but I'm looking at more from looking to Just address a pressure point at the moment that's leading to a lot of these inflation pressures these kind of Pandemic idiosyncrasies as we were discussing last week On the Brexit side as I showed you the pounds Technically on a daily chart is looking a little bit bearish at the moment So worth keeping that in mind for any price recovery that we see short-term intraday Because we've now got a pretty decent roof to price that was a strong floor year to date So things are kind of stacking up a little bit against the pound You've got COVID cases which continues ahead north, but this is largely as expected But some of the modeling now suggesting that things might well start heading in the direction that was probably worse than What many had Precalculated so definitely we wait for those numbers to really ratify that and the other thing is the amount of people who are getting pinged To then self-isolate. I mean, I don't know how many of you guys Watching this talking to people just generally in your life friends and family But it seems to me like everyone's got pinged And I know a lot of parents having a young child Who are at school and things like that seems like most of school years They're also at home and obviously that impacts parents ability to be able to go go to work and so on And so I do think that that comes as I was discussing early in the week with economic impact in that respect because The number of self-isolated people is expected to to grow substantially over the period ahead particularly now that we've Gone through the latest unlocking if you like of of restrictions So that and now Brexit making a comeback and it's like to hit the headlines again today And the reason for that is the UK is to put itself on collision course with Brussels by unveiling a new set of demands That would radically overhaul post-Brexit trading arrangements between Britain and Northern Ireland so again that contentious issue of how to deal with the Trade and with the Irish Sea and and Northern Ireland land border with with the Republic In a move that officials called a wholesale change of approach Lord David Frost Cabinet Office Minister while outlawing the strategy that seeks to eliminate most of the checks on the Irish Sea trade border That came into force in January and they're using I think it's clause 16 of the actual Document that they had signed on this initial agreement, which is you know without going into details It's kind of like well if this condition isn't met Then it means that that this clause can be actioned and hence the overhaul can be made And so that's obviously going to be a highly contested point from the Europeans point of view for what? David Frost is going to try to enforce. So it's just the latest really. I don't think in itself is particularly Surprising so therefore I don't think it's particularly that impactful But it's the cumulative impact that we're seeing at the moment for sterling Just stacking up with then the space technically I think for the dollar to see perhaps a little bit further upside and short term which when looking at those major currency dollar-based pairs Does show that there's a little bit of room there? For continuation of the the current trends as they exist barring anything unexpected at this point So let's have a look at the calendar for today It's pretty quiet. In fact, and we've known this throughout the whole week and tomorrow you get these be interest rate meeting Which is always going to be quite interesting And then we've got the flash PMI datas on Friday. So this week from a calendar perspective Has definitely been quiet, but that doesn't mean obviously the markets not being without some substantial price movement Which is typically being led by these more top-level Macro themes of course, but now we've had the kind of the negative scare move The risk off and then the risk on return yesterday things have kind of leveled out a little bit So be interested to see how today plays out and whether or not we just kind of going cruise control a little bit and wait for the ECB Then tomorrow and that data on Friday Today's calendar equally so is pretty dull There's really nothing going on today from a data perspective. You've got the DOE all inventories as per normal at hub us 3 London time this afternoon from a fixed income perspective You've got a German auction with a US $24 billion 20-year bond auction at 6 p.m. This evening from a US point of view on the earnings from a couple of interesting Dow companies Verizon Johnson Johnson Coca-Cola So collectively they would account I did the numbers this morning for 5.3% of the entire Dow Jones industrial average index just between those three companies alone So they're all reporting. I believe pre-market So definitely worth keeping an eye out for those yep coke J&J Verizon Few others as well as a more mid cap size as well reporting today But keep an eye out for those pre-market collectively for an ability perhaps depending on the outcome to move to Dow future And that's it. So gonna leave it there. Let you guys get on with a day I hope you've had a good one so far this week. Glad to be back Normal service coming resumes and I will catch you guys in the amplifier live chat room. All right. Take care