 When they see a reversal they automatically think this is the bottom right and the one thing we've always talked about is nobody knows what a bottom is until major levels get tested. Welcome to Access a Trader the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com Monday Update Show. Hope everybody is doing well. Again, hopefully everybody had a great weekend. So let's talk about the day. Pretty quiet session today. I think everybody could pretty much attest to that. Majority of the day index is down. The Dow was down 200-300 points all day. The Nasdaq was going from positive to negative. In figure after last week's almost 4% decline in the Nasdaq you kind of wanted to see what happens next. And today was basically a session. It felt like an inside day all day and the way it ended it wound up being an inside day all day. And one of the clues, well one of the things I think a lot of new traders when they see a reversal they automatically think this is the bottom, right? And the one thing we've always talked about is nobody knows what a bottom is until major levels get tested. And obviously this is a level we talked about during the weekend update and this is the level that until, in my opinion, I think they need to test at least successfully once again to be able to go higher. But the most important part is the difference between stocks moving up and stocks moving higher. The most basic clue of technical analysis is stocks need to take out the previous day's highs. The ETFs need to take out the previous day's highs. And if you look at all the major indexes, for example, the QQQs, right? Friday's high was 335, today's high was 329. As much as nice little reversal today into the close, keep this in mind, this reversal happened after three o'clock, right? I already logged off. I think a lot of people logged off. The market was pretty much dead for the first four hours a day. There was like three natural pivots. We'll talk about that in a second. But it feels like, again, it feels like the complete structure of what a trending market is. And again, since we closed below the 50 day moving average, this is again week, let's see, the day 10, right? Day 10, day 11 of all that's going on. Besides, look, is it possible, like we talked about in the video on the weekend, is it possible to get a, you know, a couple of dead cab bounces? Absolutely. Again, if you reference everything since that initial tear down of that support on January the 4th, we had a bunch, right? We had a bunch of moves to the upside. And like I said, no matter how bad or good the market is, you're always going to have moves in the opposite direction. So I don't think anything got resolved today. For the majority of day, you had a very big disconnect. Some stocks were weak. Some stocks were strong. I think for an active market to be structurally, organically good, everything needs to trade on one side of the market. You can't have Microsoft strong Facebook weak. You can't have Apple strong Tesla weak. You know what I mean? They all have to trade as a tribe. And the biggest clue when you see a big disconnect, that means it's like a drowning victim. This is kind of where we are. We're underneath the water. And it's like a drowning victim being able to get a little bit of air before they're putting back down. And again, the reason why the market turned around today, and you can see is why all these lines, I think a lot of new traders starting to realize how important these lines are, that all the cues did today was hold right above the Bollinger ban. And that's a very, very important part of it. And again, is it possible we get a dead cab bounce back into the five day moving average? Yeah, I think we can. You know, I think we can. Personally, again, I have some longs I'm watching. You know, I have maybe some dead cab bounces like an Amazon, on NVIDIA, Tesla is kind of trapped still in the middle of the range. And obviously the big story today was the announcement that Elon Musk is taking Twitter public for $44 billion. I think it works out to that initial number of 5420 they talked about. So Twitter is going private. Again, I don't know what Elon has in store for store for Twitter. But again, we'll see, right? We're all on it. We'll see. We'll see what positive changes that could possibly be done to it. But more important is the dynamics of the market and the stocks that are weak to continue to be weak. Netflix, for example, is seeing a lot of $200 $200 puts for the week for the weeklies coming in. We saw some 190s coming in. We saw some July 165s coming in. A name like for example, like an ISRG today, again, little dead cab bounce after this atrocious move on earnings Friday. You know, I'm still watching this thing. This thing is just again, when you go down, you know, when you go down 60 points and you rally three, not exactly screaming bull markets. I'm still definitely watching this thing in the next couple of days. Maybe he finally confirms his bottom channel here and has his next 15, 20 point move down as well. But the most important part is again, when you're looking at charts today, you'll see even the stocks that reversed. There's just no room, right? Look at all these stocks. You know, you have Apple, right? You had a nice hammer here. Listen, again, like I said, is it possible to get a dead cat bounce back to the five day moving average? Yeah, why not? You know, why not? We'll obviously be watching for these names, but the point is look how much supply there is. And the only way Apple is going to get above supply is when it comes out with earnings and tomorrow starts up again, right? We have technology earnings starting up again tomorrow. Let me just give you guys kind of a, let's see what tomorrow is. We got, we got Microsoft, Google. We saw some pretty, pretty aggressive bets on Microsoft with the downside today as well. But Microsoft, Google tomorrow, GE, Visa, Chipotle, you got JetBlue, TripleM, UPS, Pepsi, Texas Instruments. But Wednesday, you got Boeing, Facebook, PayPal, Ford, Qualcomm, TDOC, Pinterest, Spotify, Potato, Patato. And then Thursday is obviously going to be the big ones. You got Amazon, you got Apple, you got Roku, you got Intel, you got Gilead, Robinhood, right? Market leaders. So yeah, we're set up this week. And obviously, again, like I said on the video, over the weekend, I think we'll get a lot more cloudy. Again, for the bull case, they need these stocks to beat their numbers. They need these stocks to blow away these numbers because again, there is a lot of supply. And for the bulls to make any type of really aggressive noise that's more sustainable than like a last hour turnaround is again, they have to slowly but surely get above the five day reclaim the 10, reclaim the 20. And again, like we talked about in the video, the 347 supply needs to be, needs to be reclaimed. If that happens, then yes, you can start swing trading again, you can start putting on risk. But the 50 day what was the support now a supply needs to get back on. So pretty quiet day again, pretty quiet day, like I said, three natural, maybe it was four, four natural pivots today. Again, it felt like just to put it in layman's terms. On Friday, when you saw 1000 point decline on the Dow, right, and like a 350 point decline, it almost felt like you guys know what a volatility halt is, you know how like when a stock has news or something like that, it just like it's like they halted for, you know, for it's the kind of curb the aggression. That's what it felt like today for the first like four, five hours a day. It's like they almost stopped the market from going lower at one point that that was down 300. So, you know, 500 point turnaround is nothing to sneeze at. But I think a lot of people were uninterested in this. And that's the most important part. Remember, it's all about perception. It's all about how you handle news and how you handle the technical landscape. But right now it's all it is right now we still haven't taken out the previous days high. Obviously, if we if we are going to dead cat bounce tomorrow, and that's a very, very big if, but if we are going to dead cat bounce tomorrow, we have to at least take out and start building above the 330 level on the cues for a possible move to this 335, 336 level on the five day supply. Like I think that would be a big victory for the bulls. If the bulls can't reclaim today's highs, then again, this will start another series of lower highs and just start resuming the sell off below this 322 area, which I believe then you will see this 317 test, which is the double bottom from January, excuse me, March, the 14th. So that's it. That's pretty, you know, pretty basic stuff. When you look at the spies, when you look at the spies, you know, again, same thing, you had this kind of like, you had this bounce. I just don't even even know what area this was. But again, you had this bounce after a pretty, you know, pretty ugly decline from this 450 level. Again, can the can the spies get back to this 435 area in the next couple of days? Yeah, sure. Why not? Right? But just always remember, bounces in a sell market environment, those are the hardest days, because a bounce can happen for two points, a bounce can happen for 20 cents, or a bounce can happen for 15 seconds and then start turning around. Again, when you don't have a safety net, and your safety net is the previous day's low, the hardest days that any trader is going to experience is a green day in a sell market environment. And that's kind of what we are. But again, beggars can't be choosers. Again, life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. So let's talk about today's, today's action. Like I said, pretty slow day today. Amazon, you know, look, Amazon, you know, went down 20, 30 points, 28, 72, if it builds below can flush. I mean, there wasn't a lot of aggression today. There really wasn't, you know, Amazon went down to what 2840s. Again, it's saved on the Bollinger Band, which kind of got it back up here. And to it, it was impossible, at least for me to trade, it just went down like 10, literally at the open 442.75, if it builds below can flush, you can see pretty big move. If you got it somehow, God bless, I wasn't, I mean, look at this move here, just like right from, you know, right from the word go 10 right up from the word go. So if you got some God bless, way, way too thin, TTD never got there. eBay just sat there all day. Amat only went down like less than a dollar. Netflix got hit, right? Netflix definitely got hit. They took out the earnings lows. He started seeing the 200 weekly puts come in. Netflix was like, oh, nice move. Nothing, nothing crazy, but nice move here. So you had this, here's the 210 level, right? Here's the 210 level. And it took out this whole area and went all the way down to 204 and change. I have to assume if the market resumes any weakness, this will be the first one to get hit. Nice little move there. NVIDIA 19650, this is to the upside. This was, there was actually a couple of upside pivots. 19650 needs to build for cash flow. NVIDIA ran up a couple of points. Amazon 28, 97, 2900 could give some cash flow and initially ran up about 12 to 15 points. And then later in the day put up a $40 candle. And I said, look, nice pop, take your money, right? Take your money. Again, when you're trading to the upside and the sell bias market, you don't have a lot of time to kind of sit there and react. You have to just take your money on the way up. 207 on debt, punch a shot of 200 went down to 204. So that's it. You had a debt cap bounce, nice little reversal. The scoreboard is the scoreboard. Personally, I thought this was a very quiet day as a possible. The market buys sometime for the next couple of days and just kind of goes sideways. Yeah, it's possible. But again, you never know. And that's the greatest part about it is and the most important thing you have to remember, especially as a new trader, again, you're not trading because the market is open. You're trading because you're getting value. Value doesn't mean you're trying to squeeze out 50 cents out of Netflix. Value means you have a big measure potential at the stock confirms that level. It has a high probability of getting there. Trading for the sake of trading, all you're doing is burning mental equity and all you're doing is burning money for absolutely no reason. It's like for you poker players, imagine holding a 27 offsuit. All you do is playing 27 offsuit and you're putting your money in the middle of the table. While you know, eventually, you're going to wind up getting kings, queens and aces. Why not wait, right? Why not wait for those queens, kings and aces? It's not a race. It's not a popularity contest. You're not doing it for the likes. You're doing it because you're trying to grow your capital on a nice organic move. And again, at the end of the day, it's all about longevity. Guys, have a great night. God bless and I will see you all tomorrow.