 The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see with Larry as a bento Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, you're looking good Billy Ray feeling good Louis So we're going to have as our guest at the half hour Jeff huge of Alpha Insights He said this market pretty much pegged we've got the Federal Reserve today and tomorrow going to be quite active But we have some patterns that are lining up that should hold up I think rather well you can see the first one here is the German Dax That's been selling off quite a bit if we take a look at the footsie You're going to be seeing pretty much the same thing in the footsie And all I got to do is to find it I just saw it where was it come on Here it is just one second there we go Get this up here these are still in downtrends but not nearly as bad as we're seeing here in our market But this is the footsie as you can see it's holding up relatively well Folks even though the Federal Reserve is out there today that's not the important thing that's happening in the world It's a European Union had an emergency meeting this week yesterday And today to talk about what's happening with the Italian bond market and the German bond market They are exploding to the upside folks and interest rates are going very very high making the bonds You know total wipe out I mean it's just debacle what's going on They're worse than what we're seeing here This is what they're trying to do is to figure out the problem is all the bullets are gone folks They have very little they can do because it's out of control We have inflation that is not only a cause push inflation it's also a demand pull inflation So we have both of those working against us at this time And that's why we're seeing these things you know going absolutely crazy Now I wanted to talk to you just about how I look at some of these markets so that when we see them That we can give a rough idea of where we think they're where we think they're going to go Now if you notice here I'm going to put up the chart here of the E-mini S&P that we've been watching here for quite some time Get this up here and we'll get up here just let you see it You'll notice here since Sunday night we've had these 382 retracements And so of course what we're looking at today is nothing more that same type of a 382 retracement That's what we're that's what we're basically looking for And if we take a look at this we'll get this up here so you'll be able to see it Okay I know this is repetition for a lot of you but by golly we've got a repetition is the mother of knowledge And the father of invention hold on one second here You'll see here there's the 382 we hit it almost hit it exactly again this morning just missed it by a little bit The Dow Jones industrials hit it exactly so that's a very important number and the fact that it's about bottoming like this The other thing that is really important and we talk about this when we do the floor traders handbook When there's really key times like we are right now we always watch the standard deviation So I'm going to bring this up and you'll see standard deviation as you can see on the Dow Jones was right there Now the reason why this is important I've talked about this a couple times one of the questions was posed to me today Why am I looking for a potential 2000 point drop in the Dow Jones in this next leg down And the reason is the largest drop we've had in the Dow so far has been 1200 points If you multiply that times 1.618 that gets you out to just a tad over 1900 so I roughed it off to 2000 That's what happened in 1987 and happened again when we were in the COVID part because if you take the biggest swing down And then when you get the last swing down which are going to be the one that's going to hurt a lot of people That's the one that you want to be watching because we get that 1.618 when that's when you'll get the really quick Snapback rally where the market goes back a lot more than anybody think that it can So I know a lot of the folks have been watching the S&P today and they took it but it wasn't just the S&P folks Let's just go back for a second here and take a look at the I want to get the gold up so we can take a look at it This is the gold here now remember gold was trading we had three major signals here and gold over the last few days But I just want to just review folks because nothing nothing really changes in these markets they go up down sideways They repeat and you can see here we had the 382 retracement here we had another 382 retracement here And so when we were on the air on the on the air yesterday I was talking about another one that was probably going to be coming up and I'll bring this up to you right here And you'll get up here to take a quick look at it we were watching the gold to come down Brought Valley up to the 382 at 1718 38 that was what we were expecting it to do Now you notice last night we were quite a bit lower we started to roll over and so what you do when you see something like that What you have to do is you've got to go in and adjust your 382 retracement to get a hold of what you think it's going to do And then you'll see this is what we did and we'll bring this up here I sent this out real early in the evening last night saying to sort of expect this 382 to come in here on the gold at 1838 And the high was we missed it it was 1838 50 and now we're trading at 1821 Now the same thing occurred in the crude oil market and the reason why we were watching crude oil boys and girls Is because it had a beautiful retracement here and we'll get this up here all three of them were pretty much spot on Let's get this last one here I think I'll give you my two cents worth on this you probably if you pay more than two cents you overpaid But here's what I think the only way they can help us help the people out there and they don't really give a rat's patootie on what we do or anything yet No way they don't care but the market will tell us now we had that big high up here You see that was a 78% retracement on the daily from the 130 we got to 123 we broke down we made the 382 retracement right there at 1931 The high was 1951 we're now trading at 1754 so it's got a $2,000 profit in it we had 2000 it's 1800 in gold 2000 in the in the crude oil and then we haven't the S&P were just short I mean we're going to stay short because it's going a lot lower I did nothing to do there we're just waiting to see the rally so we've got the gold the crude oil and what was the third one Larry son of a gun I can't remember but I'll figure it out in just a minute I'll get this up here to let you folks see I wanted to point it out to you This one was very important because here is the same thing in the Dow Jones industrial average There is the you'll see the 382 retracement coming in exactly so those are the ones that were all the third one was I got it right here boys and girls Stay with me and we will have it up here for just a second and with a little bit of luck anyway Maybe we need more than luck I'll cover that here Well I want to try to get this last one in so we can get it here it is right here just one second here is the third one which was the natural gas If you remember yesterday we talked about the natural gas I'll I said I did this in a video but I did not all I did was I posted it but it came out so late But here's the 382 retracement coming in here at 770 a high was 769 80 it is now $1700 to the good so sometimes the 382s work sometimes they don't We'll be right back boys and girls stay with us please At a time of booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded there's no better place to protect your hard earned money than ain't gold This the golds flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold project in the northern territory of Australia This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project we are talking world class gold project in a tier one mining district This is a large scale low cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction This the gold just completed the Mount Todd feasibility study which resulted in a 7 million ounce gold reserve in a 16 year mine life All of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits This this thing which is Mount Todd is an attractive, dearest partner, ready development stage gold project This the gold trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol VGZ You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball After all it's impossible to predict the future right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave The Chapman Wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns Finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com Educating investors And barely miss that mark again in 2019 Finishing at number two for the year An amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter, Mastering Probability Is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon Steve's Market Newsletter, Mastering Probability And you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free At TFNN all our newsletters come with a 30 day money back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today TFNN Educating Investors Okay folks, this net charts from our good friend JC Parrots of All-Star charts And he's showing you how difficult it is for stocks to rally when you have a really, really super strong dollar And that's causing gold to take a hiatus to the downside And then also you'll see what it does to the E-mini S&P So let's just pay close attention to that because these are big breakouts that we're having If you remember folks yesterday we talked about the weakness that we were seeing in the Euro And if you remember I mentioned on here I said try to sell the first 382 retracement Or sell the first ABCD pattern that you see in the Euro And if you was watching it today we just missed the 382 by about 20 pips But as you can see here we had an absolutely beautiful ABCD going right up to the high there And it's broken well over $1,200 with virtually no heat at all So you can't do all of these trades of course but all four of the ones that we're looking at today We're working pretty nicely and basically all it was folks is just a little bit of ABCD And then we do a little bit of razzle dazzle with the 382 The greatest number ever invented by Mr. Leonardo da Pisa da Fibonacci I'll tell you folks it's really amazing. By the way we have a new member of the Tiger family folks We have a good little boy was born two days ago up in Vancouver and his name is Leonardo And he is a TFNN listener at the age of three days His mother and son are doing quite well and the father is doing extremely well And he actually named him after Leonardo da Pisa da Fibonacci And I thought that was pretty cool. There's been a bunch of those through the years And I think it's really great, you know, to a point, a way to look at things anyway A little bit differently. Now here's something we need to talk about folks I wanted to show you this pattern here because this is really important One of the reasons why I enjoy doing this show is we have so many smart people out there That send me ideas that are just absolutely off the wall I said where in the heck did you get this? And I go back and test it And I say shut the front door and raise the rent Been looking at these for years and I still miss it But take a look at this folks If you'll notice here, up here at the top here when we were at the 78% level at 123 We had the breakdown in one day. We dropped $7,000 We rallied back three, which is at the 382 retracement right there, you can see it And then last night you'll notice that the market came down and touched the 382 retracement again At 118.50 and we rallied up all the way up to 1955 or something like that And then when we took this out folks, when we took this out That's when hell hath no fury like a crude market in descent Because once it broke, it broke all the way down here to the 116 and change level Folks, this is a good part about these patterns is when they work, they work extremely well And when they're wrong, you get out of the way Figure you're going to be right about two out of three times And you're going to make two and a half to three times your money on each one of these Sometimes you'll do better, sometimes you'll do worse But you'll have the odds in your favor and therein lies the rub You've got to have that because that gives you the real advantage of what you want to be looking at Now let's get back to the gold market here because this is what we're watching here in the gold And I think this is what we're going to be... It could reverse here with the Federal Reserve just like anything And the markets are very oversold Look at this, we had a 3-8 true retracement here in the gold up here at this 1873 The number was 1878, the high was 1883, Sunday night And we've broken almost 80 handles to the downside, we got to 1805 But we're looking below 1700 as a potential In other words, taking the low out of a year ago There's nothing more than a giant ABCs back here where we had this high up here at this double top And then down into this level right here right around 1700 That's what our goal happens to be in this Now the only thing that will change this is if we get above 1870 We get above 1870, you know, it's 60 handles from where we are right now But by golly, it could happen, we saw it on Friday The market moved 100 handles On Sunday night, what did it do? It was up $2 And then rolled over and went all the way back down, taking out the lows So there's a lot of things going on The Federal Reserve is between a rock and a hard place, boys and girls There's not much they can do And the reason why, the difference is, folks We are closer to a low in the treasury bonds than we are in a high We've almost made the objectives that we've been watching here Let me get this up here so we can see it Because I had it all printed out ready to go Come on, don't do this to me That's not the one, that's natural gas Give me a second, folks, I think it's this one Nope, it isn't that one It might be this one There it is, this is the one I want to show you Here we go This is why we've been very sponsor for a very, very long time Remember, we just don't look at fundamentals at all folks Up here, of course, was the greatest scam This was worse than the crypto market, folks When they told us about negative interest rates At least crypto, you had some type of a chance to make some money Whereas with this one here, they said, you give us the money We're not going to guarantee that we can give it back to you And it's going to cost you money for us to hold you the money Hello, operator Here was the big move here, folks This is the weekly a perfect one-three-five pattern When the bonds are at one-sixty, folks They've dropped 30 handles We're only a couple handles away from the big A-B-C-D pattern down in here at one-twenty-eight Now, I imagine you're going to see some really wild stuff happen here Over this next day or two Because they're going to be throwing all kinds of things at the markets in Europe Through the European Union and also our folks here at the Federal Reserve They're going to do some job-owning They're going to do everything they can My opinion is the only way that they can really acquiesce to people And they don't really care whether they help us or not But if they would just open up the vaults there where we have all that excess oil And let the minors, let the oil drillers come back I know this green piece and stuff But folks, if you can't eat and you can't eat your house like many people can't It don't make any difference where the gas is coming from or where it's going You're going to die anywhere So we do need that oil to get going right now I know it's wonderful to have cars that you can't hear coming down the road But by golly, we're just not right ready for that yet We're energy-independent folks We don't need to get oil from anybody Hey look, just a few weeks ago, we were two dollars and a half cheaper than we are now So let's think about that Maybe the boys will do something about that That's what I'm seeing when I look at the chart of the crude oil, gasoline And the gasoline, which has been the leader, only made a 382 retracement Also, guess what heating oil did, duh, 382 All three of them made 382 retracements and they're coming off a bit That might be the first sign, it might be the last time But we'll have to wait and see Just to show you, we'll get back to the goal for just a second here We've got Jeff coming up here in just a minute If you'll take a look at this, this is the chart of that gold again Also coming from one of the folks that belongs with JC's group, the All-Star charts We're sitting right here folks at 1805 I mean anything, we had a 382 today at 1838 Below that, it's bad news We'll be right back folks, Jeff Fuge, Alpha Insights If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metals sector As well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose Every Monday morning I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds The XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended 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We have Jeff Hughes of Alpha Insights as our guest today. Jeff, how are you doing today? I am well, Larry. How are you today? I am good. Well, today is the day that the referees make their decision. What do you think is going to happen with the Federal Reserve today, my friend? Well, with about 95% probability, I think we're going to see a 75 basis point hype. Do you think that will affect the markets very much? You know, it's really tough to say. I think that we're going to see a lot of volatility But, you know, I don't think it's so much what we're really going to do today I think it's what's going to happen going forward And I think it's going to have a lot to do with what their guidance is around July and September And, you know, we're already seeing a lot of indications that we could see follow-through 75 basis point moves next month and then to September meeting as well Okay, now your first chart is about inflation may not be peaking well With demand pull and cost push, it's going to be pretty tough for inflation to back off a little bit What are you feeling here, Jeff? You know, this is the Atlanta Fed's dashboard on inflation And they look at nine different studies where they calculate core inflation, not headline inflation So if we just back out the cost of food and energy prices moving up We're actually continuing to see an uptick in core inflation It moved up from about 287 basis points to 337 basis points based on the last report And that tells me that we're going to have more persistent inflation And that the Fed is going to need to be much more aggressive Yeah, how are they going to be aggressive? They're just going to have to keep printing money is all I can figure Because no one wants to buy bonds I mean, there's a absolute debacle going over in Germany and also in Italy this last two days And that's why they've had a special EU meeting going on Because the bond markets have collapsed over there Even worse than what we've had here So it's just a worldwide problem with bonds it looks like Well, you're guaranteed to lose money, that's the problem Yeah, that's no good How about the monetary policy, Jeff? You've got a neat graph here on monetary policy So we're really looking at the CME Group's FedWatch tool here And I took a look out to July and September Just to get a sense of what the Fed funds futures curve is pricing in right now And while I think it's a lock that we're going to get a 75 basis point move today The Fed funds are already locking in 75 basis points at the next meeting So I think 150 is pretty much guaranteed And that gets it to 2.5% by the middle of next month on the Fed funds rate And that to me is something to be concerned about Because that's going to suck the life out of the economy basically And September is already, you know, we're looking at a 39% probability Of another 75 basis point hike in September That could get us up to around 325 basis points total on the Fed funds And Fed funds over 3, we haven't seen that in a decade So that's a real change economically All I saw that mortgage rates for a 30 year jumbo has doubled in price in the last 6 weeks So that certainly puts a cabash on your payments if you're buying a new house And I don't know if you follow the price of lumber, Jeff You know, lumber has gone from 1,400 to 565 here in the last 6 and a half weeks So evidently demand for lumber is, of course it's a small commodity But it's used in all building, so that must mean something also But to see the prices drop like that, that's a pretty substantial drop That means people are not building as much, that's for sure No, I think there's a link here clearly This rise in inflation is going to bring on a rise in rates We're going to bring on a demand reaction And that demand reaction in housing is clearly going to be fewer housing starts And it's showing up in lumber futures as you're pointing out The next chart that you've got up here is the 10 year treasury yield This is the most amazing chart because there's where the problem lies If this thing really takes off, there's going to be really, really problems over there at the Fed We've shown you before our target for 6% on the 10 year treasury yield Looking out the next 12 to 18 months We actually brought it in, we were looking at 18 to 24 months We now think 12 to 18 months to get there And it was predicated on a breakout above the December 2018 high of 3 and a quarter Well that occurred on Monday, so we broke out And that breakout to me immediately counts to 362 And so we should see 362 on the 10 year in the very not too distant future I mean it could happen this week even and I think certainly within the next few weeks We'll see 362 on the 10 year And a lot of people are thinking well we've got this inverted yield curve That means the Fed's going to have to cut No, the Fed isn't going to cut, okay This is a real conundrum because we're raising rates into an economic slowdown And you know in my view we're going to see a parallel yield curve shift Where we've got 3% at the Fed funds rate and 6% at the 10 year rate And a steepness of 300 basis points which is typical right That's historically been the spread so that banks can borrow and lend and make a profit So if you change that dramatically you're going to have a major problem in the banking industry Yeah, that's for sure We have a question for one of our listeners Jeff Do you see a black swan event that nobody's looking at that could be out there That would trigger these markets to run into a chaotic mode? Well by definition if I could see it it wouldn't be a black swan event But let me put it this way Something out there the markets are pricing in, okay It might not be obvious to everybody at this point but there's no question in my mind That something is happening here and I think the real answer lies in earnings And you know we could talk about that But I think what will happen is first of all we've re-rated equities based on the change in interest rates So that put a lot of pressure on PE ratios But we haven't re-rated equities based on earnings Earnings estimates are still 228 this year and 251 next year I don't think we're going to come anywhere close to either of those numbers By the way that question came from an unknown listener in Tucson, Arizona It was me Jeff, I just discussed it I tried to think out what could possibly happen To me a swan event would be something, we had that with COVID That was certainly a black swan event, nobody saw that coming But something else could be Taiwan and China could be escalation Nuclear stuff, I don't know what it would be But the way these markets are acting, well we'll go into cryptos a little later We've got a break coming up here in a minute We could talk about the economy already being in a recession And we're seeing that in Tucson, Arizona I can tell you that right now Well wait till rates back up to 3.25% then you'll see a real recession Yeah, I think so, go ahead my friend Yeah, so I think we're sucking the life out of the economy by raising rates And that's the real issue here And as we continue to do so, then I think we'll see GDP growth continue to edge lower And so it's required, the Fed has to do this Otherwise this runaway inflation will, you know, crush GDP growth Eventually at the nominal level But real GDP growth is trending some 1% And we're going to get a series of data points later this week But I think we'll bring it down to sub zero That would be, you know, two quarters of negative GDP consecutively And that's basically a rule of thumb recession right there So we may already be in a recession Okay, we'll be right back with Jeff, huge alpha insides We'll be right back, just give us two more minutes Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area Including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area Whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value Or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay Area To help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas To the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future Call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 Or email us at tiger at TFNN.com That's 727-329-8322 Call us today The technology around us is changing every day With so much happening, it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter, The Technology Insider Is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology That shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks As well as entry prices, target prices, and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday With updates throughout the week You can get The Technology Insider at TFNN.com for only $37.50 Sign up for Dave's newsletter, The Technology Insider And get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer Try it risk-free today with our 30-day money-back guarantee TFNN, Educating Investors Are China A shares hot or not? If you trade China A shares now may be time to take a closer look Trade CHAU or CHAD Directions daily CSI 300 China A share bull and bear ETFs China A shares in either direction Visit DirectionInvestments.com today An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses Of the Direction shares carefully before investing The Perspectus and Summary Perspectus contain this and other information about Direction shares To obtain a Perspectus or Summary Perspectus Please contact Direction shares at 866-476-7523 The Perspectus or Summary Perspectus should be read carefully before investing An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC This program is brought to you by Vista Gold Traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ Here we're back folks with Jeff Hughes of Alpha Insights One of the premier technical newsletter writers that I've been able to fortunate to meet And of course we have some great ones in here with Tim Boss and Shane Smolian But Gali, you're right at the top in my book buddy You cover stuff that way beyond my pay grade that people really need to look at You want to talk to us about what you're seeing in earnings? Yeah, you know the revisions so far have been trending lower for about the last year Larry And what I mean by that is that revisions when analysts look at companies forecast And they're predicting the earnings for next year They've been cutting earnings pretty regularly on a net basis So we're looking at a chart here of earnings breadth And that's the difference between upside earnings revisions and downside earnings revisions And you can see that the upside earnings revisions are de minimis at this point They're being overwhelmed by downside earnings revisions When this goes negative, that is a sign of trouble for the market And like I said a minute ago, you know we're looking The market is pricing in 228 in S&P operating earnings for this year I mean there's no way we're going to hit that We came at 47 bucks in the first quarter, okay Earnings aren't getting better going forward, I think they're going to get worse So I'd be very surprised if we come in above If we come in above $200 this year And for 2023, I think the number will be lower Because again, we are sucking the life out of the economy when we're raising interest rates like this This is going to put the kibosh on economic growth both nominally and in a real set Okay, the next slide we have is a slide with investor sentiment You want to tell the folks what you're looking at here? Yeah, so our friend Callum Thomas at Topdown Charts put together this slide And he came up with this great aggregated survey data So he's looking at surveys from individual investors, professional investors, futures traders And the blue line is really looking at all of that aggregated survey data And what we're looking at is the attitudes among traders of every ilk Have rarely been lower than they are today But if you look at the black line which is the combined portfolio allocations of all of these traders They've rarely been higher So even though people's attitudes are bearish Their actions have not followed through yet And so they continue to sit with this kind of hope and prayer That the market's going to come back and the Fed's going to bail us out But the Fed is doing exactly the opposite Raising rates into an economic slowdown Forcing recession, pulling the air out of the economy That'll result in massive earnings revisions for the downside And eventually fundamental investors will have to re-rate equities based on these lower earnings And I think that will cause the black line to converge with the blue line at much lower levels Okay, that's really interesting Jeff, I have a question We have a couple more slides to go But are you going to cover the cryptos at all? Yeah Oh good, good Let's go ahead And you would talk about this major top formation You've been telling us since the middle of January That even a third grader can sort of see it now But what are you looking at here, my friend? Yeah, I mean the major top is this We've got a classic pattern top formation Of the head and shoulders variety There's a weak right shoulder which suggests a much lower downside target To around 3500 on the S&P We've broken both trend and chart support We've broken moving average support We've broken the 38.2% retracement And now we're on track to hit the 50% retracement Which coincides with the 200 week moving average And prior chart support at about 3500 on the S&P Today we're sitting at about 3775 or so So there's substantial downside And my biggest fear, Larry, is that this level doesn't hold Everyone who's looking at it thinks it's going to hold And when you've got a lot of people thinking one thing Usually something else happens And my suspicion is that we're going to cut through that level Like a hot knife through butter And the next support level would then be around 3200 Which is the 61.8% retracement Okay, now we'll get on to the cryptos I guess the scale down buying programs these people have been using Is not coming to the preceded effect, I guess Well, we downgraded yesterday afternoon at about 2 o'clock Central time and sent this note similar to this Out to all of our subscribers Letting them know that we have seen some substantial damage Actually, on June 1st when we published our monthly review And outlook, we were very close to downgrading Bitcoin and Ethereum We've been neutral on them for many, many months All year long as a matter of fact Which means we have no position But we now think that we can short these and make a lot of money And the reason we think so is because they've broken structural trend support As well as key chart supports as well And I think a breakthrough this 21-20,000 level Counts down to around 12,500 And possibly as low as 7,500 And if we go about it from that perspective You can make a lot of money If you're short at 21,000 And it goes to 10,000 You're going to double your money With Ethereum, the situation is not that much different But the numbers are different We're at about 1100 today Again, we think this can go down to 400 at least And possibly as low as 275 And so our view is You want to be out of these things And that's been our view for the last six months But we think you can now short these things And make a good deal of money And so we would be looking for opportunities Selling the rallies Any sort of a rally we see in crypto names Like Ethereum and Bitcoin And we choose to use the futures contracts Because they're very liquid and reliable As opposed to the exchanges And the reason for that is We've seen some real concerning action In the lending and exchange functions Related to all of these cryptos That suggest there are some deep-seated structural issues Of the systemic nature in this market That may make the entire thing to break down And to your point about a black swan earlier That might very well be it This market went from 3 trillion in size to 1 trillion And you suck that last trillion dollars out of the market And you're going to have a big problem I know it was really amazing to see how these things Had broken people Oh, we've got a caller on the line Is that correct Al? I guess not Anyway, I understand that some of these exchanges Have even shut down And that they're not even allowing people To withdraw their money And that's not a good sign And not only that They don't even allow to take orders On some of these things So it's pretty nasty There's a run on the bank basically in crypto Yeah How about the long value versus the short growth scenarios Jeff I think this is the only place to hide in this market I mean, there is a real nice relationship That's developed over many, many years And that is the black line here Is the ratio of value stocks to growth stocks And they were in a downtrend for 15 years And the red line represents the 10-year treasury yield Which was also in a downtrend But as the 10-year treasury yield started to recover And break out So did value stocks relative to growth stocks And there's about a 90% correlation coefficient Right here So I think as long as rates remain elevated And continue to go higher We could see value continue to outperform growth And being long value and short growth Could be an absolute return strategy That pays off Hey Jeff, can you stay with us to the very end So we can tell the folks how they can reach you Absolutely We'll be right back folks We'll be right back TFNN Educating Investors The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman Creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns Finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know And you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com Educating Investors Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything From the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of Sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pesavento on stocks you need to pay attention to And you can trust Larry's analysis After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time First time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know And you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today TFNN.com Educating Investors Okay, we're back folks with Jeff Hughes Jeff, you want to tell the folks how they can reach you? Absolutely, you can always follow me on Twitter at Alfa underscore insight But one way you can find out more about me is to go to my website at www.jwhinvestment.com And on the website you'll see that we have a free newsletter The most recent one was published on June 1st where I laid out detail Basically everything I told you today, but with a lot more detail and charts and narrative And you can subscribe to that newsletter so it's delivered to your email inbox Every month when we publish And actually there's some perks for members If you become a member, you'll actually get our top trade idea each week We publish every Wednesday afternoon, so we're going to put one out this afternoon About two o'clock central time And if you become a member it costs like ten bucks a month You can't cancel any time But basically you get our best idea for about the cost of a cup of coffee each week And we've done well, we've made people a lot of money with this service So it might be something your listeners can benefit from Well you've done a great job, Jeff, I can attest to that So thanks for joining us, my friend And we'll have you on again soon and keep up the great work And stay on the green side of the grass and be happy Thanks Larry, you too I really appreciate you having me on the show today It's a real pleasure, thank you very much Jeff, huge awful insights folks By the way I want to make a correction On the part about the 1200 point move and the dial The question was could it be 1200 points to the upside The answer to that is no Because the overall trend is down That's the answer to that So I certainly hope that that helps answer that question So we'll watch that very closely Now we only got a couple of minutes or one minute left to go Tomorrow our guest will be Shane Smollion on Friday We are going to have Tim Bost So hopefully these and I didn't realize this folks I must not be a very good American But when I didn't know anything about Juneteenth I didn't know there was a holiday for Juneteenth And happens to be my dad's birthday But for heaven's sakes, surprise the heck out of me I must be missing something We'll be right back folks, tomorrow