 Welcome to Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 24th of February with me, Patrick Munlow. Unless we see a sizable repricing of China related risk, the situation appears some nightly to change much next week. The economic calendar and the developed markets is pretty unexciting and in the US only durable goods orders, consumer confidence and the second reading of 4th quarter GDP are up next week or with limited market moving implications. Main attention reading next week will be on Fed speakers with Richard Clareder, Charles Evans and James Bullard all set to make remarks. Except for some possible comments on the virus impacts, the reiterated easiness of the Federal Reserve with the current policy stance suggests a scope for surprises. On the political side, keeping an eye on the Nevada caucuses which are due Saturday, given that Michael Bloomberg is not running in Nevada, the spotlight will be on whether Bernie Sanders will be able to consolidate his lead if Joe Biden continues to lose ground. From a technical perspective, the dollar index has stalled out at a retest of the prior cycle highs at the 99-60, we tested through that level this week but failed to close above it, so there is the potential here now for a double top to occur. However, as 99 level now acts as support, I'll be looking for one more high here to test the monthly descending trend line towards the 130 to 150 level. From this area, we could see a much more meaningful top but in place, close above there or two-day close above there would suggest that we will see trend acceleration to the upside. But for now, looking for a correction early in the week to find support in the 98-50 to 99 level to set a base for another challenge above this 100 level. Really only a move back through the 98 handle would suggest that this double top pattern is more meaningful and we could likely see a sustained correction. While we're talking about the dollar, let's check in with gold. Gold has accelerated higher as the pattern that I've highlighted over the past few weeks is playing out. I'm now looking for a move up to test the 1670 level, perhaps some consolidation but ultimately look for a test of the 1700 level before we could see a more meaningful high put in. Really this week, only a move back through 1600 would suggest that we're likely to see a deeper pullback to retest the base towards 50. The economic side in the Eurozone hasn't really, the picture solid hasn't really improved. The ZEW sentiment indicator provided signals of mounting coronavirus related concerns and the PMIs released last week were only good on the surface as they signaled a degree of supply chain disruption. Looking at next week's calendar, the German EFO will be one of the key challenges for the Euro. Consensus according to the Bloomberg survey is centered at 95.2. The business climate gauge reading should be down from January's 95.9. Markets are looking for an even weaker reading suggesting a print below 95. Similar to what we saw earlier last week when the German survey data may have the potential to ignite or reinstate the downtrend that we're seeing in Euro. More general terms, the Euro still appears in an unpleasant position. The economic outlook for Eurozone keeps worsening and its funding characteristics still prevent it from taking full advantage of a rebound in risk sentiment. From a technical perspective, we did see a recovery on Friday but whilst we hold symmetry swing resistance at the 10870 to 109 level, I'll be looking for a further challenge down to the monthly ascending trend line which comes in around 107.50. From this level, we can see a more meaningful base print in place. However, if we do take out the 109 from the current low, then I'll be looking for a move to descending trend line resistance up towards the 110 handle. Next week is going to be a quietly weak in terms of data for up the UK which leaves really the balance of risk somewhat tilted to the downside with respect to sterling, mostly because markets expect potential comments by both EU and UK officials about trade negotiations to be increasingly hawkish and hardly conciliatory. The budget due to be released on the 11th of March is unlikely to match the expectations of this exceptional aggressive fiscal stimulus that the market has been anticipating. From a technical perspective, sterling is a major recovery on Friday and is potentially putting in a descending wedge pattern here which could see prices move up through the 131 handle to retest range highs up towards 133. Any failure early in the week below 12840 will be a bearish development suggesting move down to test support 2127. The Japanese yen has really been the underperformer last week and we're now trading just below that 112 handle versus the dollar. This fall in the yen has really been a combination of markets shifting from short-term fears, i.e. the global pandemic with respect to coronavirus, to pricing in the long-term impact of the slowdown in China. Japan is highly exposed in this sense, rising fears of recession in Japan after the fourth quarter growth data and finally speculation about sustained outflows from Japan as Japanese investors look for more attractive yields abroad as the financial year comes to an end. This week the market is expecting data to once again show that industrial production has slumped further and this will likely add negatives in terms of the economic outlook for the country. The rest of the week really the coronavirus story will remain the key driver as investors are looking for more evidence that the pace of which the virus is spreading is gradually slowing. From a technical perspective, the dolly yen traded up to to test offers above the 112 handle and we did see a close below there on Friday as this level now acts as resistance. I'll be looking for a move back down to test the breakout point at the the 110-50 handle. From there we may set a base to make a more meaningful challenge on the 112-50 in terms of Australian data next week. It really is very quiet so the attention will be on the coronavirus developments. Markets feel that positive news keeps dissipating the fears of pandemic. That should be somewhat supportive of the Australian dollar. However, markets continue to position really for an impact on Australian data in the coming weeks once we see the feedback loop from the coronavirus concerns. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar tested bids down below the 66 handle and we closed back towards the highs of the day on Friday up towards 66-30. As the 66 handle continues to act to support look for a close above the descending trend line resistance at the 67 handle to suggest the potential for a more meaningful base and a challenge of the offers above the 68 level. In Canada, the Canadian dollar continues to outpace the Australian dollar as the Canadian economy is more protected from the Chinese slowdown. However, towards the end of the year GDP data for fourth quarter may hit the loomy as quarter over growth should come in almost flat. This may revamp some Bank of Canada easing speculation and this could be negative for the cap this week. From a technical perspective, as the Canadian dollar continues to find support at the 132 handle, I've been looking for a test of this major descending trend line up towards the 134 area. However, if we take out the 132 on a closing basis, then I'll be looking for a move down to test support back down towards the 135th big handle. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 24th of February.