 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now David white Yeah Welcome to another excellent edition of the power trading hour and as always it doesn't matter where you're at as long as you're here at the appointed time the following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. so what do we have going on today let's do this yeah okay hopefully everything sounds good everything's doing well or working out are all the bugs and kinks and our new technology this week and so far it's going fairly good but as they say no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy you've had to dance around it this week thanks for hanging in there as far as the market we've had a very good and successful test in the S&Ps we needed a 42 20 yeah 42 20 to 50 to hold I re-entered our long positions in the newsletter today and again this is very fast trading it's not any guy had somebody asked this morning why I wouldn't go long in the newsletter for investing and that is if it's just going to be temporary maybe a week or something that's not investing that's trading so we continue to be bullish over kind of the next week maybe into the Fed meeting but that's about it we've got a lot of stuff going on in the market nothing's changed on my any of that stuff not exactly sure where anything else has gone on it not on my end it sounds perfect through the headphones but what do we have microphones all set correctly nothing's changed on this side but I do digress that turn up that a little bit so we can see that's it oh you want to go to things in the I got slightly distracted that's easy for me we'll take these out of order because I kind of added to them through the day we continue to consolidate quite a bit in the market and we were looking for that for a little bit no I've got stuff all over the place out here right now crude of course continues its consolidation off the blow off top 106 76 is back there there's a yeah actually kind of to the bottom of my list out here we had the Biden administration coming to their let them eat cake moment that is now getting a huge amount of backlash as to them doing zero about the prices of fuel or next to nothing on the prices of fuel and the least the people inside are thinking that inside politics are thinking that at this point if we're going to have a party left they're after him to go ahead and at least start doing some more to relieve gas prices with more domestic drilling and of course we've got even the very nice folks to the north of us scratching their heads asking them why they can't import or at least export more oil to the United States to lower prices but I think if there's a little bit going on here it is that the administration just who wants higher prices to drive their global warming agenda and thinking that they'll get people off crude which I think it's probably a pipe cream there just isn't enough lithium and batteries and all the other stuff to go on we've talked about that before but wishing doesn't make it happen but I think that there's a bit of that and at least the rumor around Washington is that's going to change quite a bit we've got some ECB backlash from this morning they were a bit more hawkish in their tone and that really set up the lower open we also have a TLT that just fell through the floor kind of on that amazingly we've had an incredibly good 30 year bond auction but that didn't help right now so much in the TLT we were a bit lower and kind of come off that basically I think on that better bond auction we're down to 133 72 for the lower 134 37 but as I've said for a while we're headed to 128 and probably sooner rather than later the Fed Congress Treasury everybody and their dog wants to manipulate this for a little bit but it's not going to go that far and see what else we have we got that we got that volumes are low in the pullback I kind of addressed on that yesterday where we saw a lot of stocks came down those stocks as I said was a basis of trying to set some kind of low today we had a pullback on what's going to be lighter volume most likely by the end of the day so could we get and continue a rally all the way in maybe to the Fed meeting next Wednesday maybe they're a little less or more dovish a little less hawkish on this generally the reasons why the market starts going up are somewhat vague and murky before it in a lot of times I guess wrong you know it could be anything from the rumors of a ceasefire in the Ukraine to a lot of other the other things but as we just look at at what's going on in the market it is telling you something that is that we did have a blow off top on pretty much gold and crude golds 2002 trying to hold 2000 for the day but I think we could see at least seven more days of winter the gold and the crude must not a muskrat what is he not a hamster groundhog groundhog come out a little bit more winter out here as consolidation goes on and that's probably going to apply to the equity markets to but very good test out here for most everything in you know what could just have a few days of sunshine before what everybody believes is the end of the world comes maybe 877-927-6648 email me at tfn.com and of course you can put a message in are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade by understanding these trading ranges David White is able to find a path of least resistance David White's trading newsletter the path of least resistance is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an 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educating investors at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 is that better and it's better for me anyway let's go ahead and do I have any history today now we did it yesterday I don't think I had time to get it done I had a bunch of other stuff going on before the show so we're gonna go right into questions which we have a few out here as we take a look at them to okay hey David I appreciate your call on the market turnaround played it a bit different than you did well Brent okay good enough what else we have even if oil comes down to sixty eighty dollars a barrel big oil companies still gonna rake it in aren't they well not not like they were in the last couple of days remember these guys bought tankers and it takes 20 days to get across the the ocean and if they bought it 80 and sold yesterday or the day before 130 gonna be hard to duplicate that ever again are they gonna make more money than they did a year ago the answer is yes but not as much money as they were when crewed was 130 bucks I think it can still go higher I'm not saying that it's over I'm just saying there's enough rumors out there yet a blow-off top at best you're looking for consolidation and for everything to calm down and everybody quit talking about it every two three minutes generally almost all these giant blow-off tops are have a similar way of moving higher later and that is they bore everybody to death they make everybody think that it's not going up and it just goes sideways for a while and then it starts its move higher yet again so it are there still possible ones yes there's a blow-off top pretty much tell you that it's not going to happen instantly or in the next week probably in the next week in the next month a lot of things can happen out there again a river a really rumor driven market out here but today a handful of things kind of pushing down on that again I don't spend a lot of time watching CNBC I do get some emails and one of the things I do look for is Santoli's call on or Santelli call on bond auctions he says it's the best it's ever been for the retail investor going to bonds and foreign folks doing it and that generally is a good indication that they're throwing the baby out with the bathwater at the lows at least in the short term like I said you can have some fairly strong moves in a bear market that are back up and higher a lot higher than you ever thought only to see them dashed once again but so far today as we went through the stocks yesterday maybe we'll go through the tail end of that's a bunch of stocks that we went through the volume has been kind of considerably low let's take a look at it in the previous days about this time about halfway through 230 we've been doing about 10 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated tape if not 11 billion shares into going into 18 billion well we're at about 8.1 so is it infinitesimally low the answer is no but it's there anyway okay so what do we oh we got a couple more questions out here so who is this a Hector yeah are they going back to to the lows it from $40 probably not any time soon but you know we had a huge ramp and those huge ramps seldom if ever end up holding you need a a pace of consolidation just like the pop yesterday in the S&P you're gonna get pullbacks and they're gonna especially in bear markets are going to be brutal to hold and almost impossible for you to think about buying and I did buy before the show start to okay what else XLF extremely bullish well you got to think that the move in bonds is probably barely good for the financial sector you did get down with the rest of the markets but volume is fairly low what you're probably going to take to get financials moving I've got a three by three displaced moving average up here which I like it's fairly close to a nine-day moving average if you're a home gamer that does not have access to displaced moving averages and see what I want here I want the traditional moving average out here there's not a whole lot of difference it's just I like the displaced moving average as it gives you the numbers up front a lot more anyway we're seeing this move what you want it to do what you want is a couple more days of probably consolidation and the next pop above that line is probably the bi-signal on it in the meantime you probably have a lot of sideways action and I'm wondering if it won't be something that the Fed says next week the one thing I'm hard to put a number on if we're handicapping the market is what would if we had a real ceasefire what would that do to the S&P 100 points 150 points 200 points 50 points depends on what you have you have an opinion give me a call today 8779276648 okay and he says I ended my stream didn't want to do that I don't know why it did that again we're getting used to this hopefully you know streams back up and running for you folks in the engineering room to two okay anyway yeah no real clear buy signal out here yet in the financials but I got to think that if there's one that's probably going to do good over the next year with four rate hikes probably baked in to the year it's going to be financials to two okay so that apple is being taken to the wood shed I think the biggest problem here is they did release a new product options are still rather bullish for next week with a high indication that this goes to 165 so you're not going to retire on any movement that apple has but it's held pretty much straight through the day the problem with apple is they delivered a lot of stuff that no one cared about and they're making a lot of hay in the tech sector for their new high-powered video production I'm going to call it video production machine which is in reality going to cost somebody 10 or 12 grand so you're probably not going to sell a lot of those to more for people that have big YouTube channels maybe you see it in or I think putting a lot of content and eat it up very quickly on a system so cool but man who cares having fun 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and we're back we'll continue talking about what we have here in apple and it yeah so you know why is it doing poorly everybody was hoping that they'd come up with some kind of new iPhone that someone would pay 1500 bucks a piece for coming up with a ten thousand dollar computer that may be very impressive he has a very narrow market and yeah they they're right now addressing more memory than anybody else and doing all this other stuff but at that point you start looking at going to the cloud and an individual PC like that that's high and expensive compared to a server that can do the same thing people would probably or generally like to have the server more so a very interesting product very brown groundbreaking and a very narrow market compared to all the other stuff the new inexpensive phones and stuff they're not happy about that they think that'll bring overall margins down so kind of a the dog and pony was a disappointment to them so we have that we have the Jeepster out here says when would you think about buying a long position in micron the semis as we said yesterday still hadn't gotten a really good signal and one of the things with micron along with some of the others is that they did have more volume than the previous low on January 28th you had to see am I still okay stream is still running you had what do you have you had 26 million shares on the 7th and you bounced a little today you got well you know what it is not so bad you probably want to close what do you have now 75 39 you need to close over 75 52 which is not that far away depends on how the volume comes in I'm just thinking maybe some of these need more time to consolidate if there's a word that could be underused right now is probably consolidation in the markets after all these big moves everybody just thinks that it's gonna big swings are gonna continue infinitum I'm not one of those folks I think we could find narrowing trading ranges for a while but on the S&P I do think that it's gonna resolve itself higher and that's probably only for a very short amount of time as we do that so I don't see anything out here let's take a look at the SMH's and see if there's anything else out there everybody's still worried fairly strongly about an invasion by China and again you had too much volume on March 8th in the SMH's you had 13 million shares that's got to get retested again so I'm thinking the S&P's spies are probably going to be the first really to start moving higher through the next week and it may take Monday or Tuesday maybe even Wednesday of next week for the SMH's to bottom out and some of the other tech sector so still way too much risk on the thought that China may invade I think that is what the market is thinking but at least the charts are telling us the same thing maybe there's a different reason that I've missed but still a little week out there as I said the XLF probably a better bet right now I suspect as you know interest rates are going higher let's take a look at the TLT kind of looked at that before but if there's something you really should be watching out here is that the one bright spot on the TLT is lighter volume so you may have a temporary rest spot out here on the test of February 16th 134.51 43 million shares with just 20 million shares you really need to close above 341.51 and you're underneath that maybe you get back up there energy was really too much on the way down so I'm not expecting this thing to run back up to the top maybe you could get up 136 137 and then start moving down but I suspect by the end of March we're back down into the 128 area again they'll move this and could jigger it and do everything they can but you know it's as we say the Otis indicator from Mayberry RFD Otis knew where the keys were to the drunk tank he may be all over town but eventually he's gonna find his self in his way into the cell and lock himself up by midnight and certainly and what we have here is kind of the drunkards walk Otis's my tank on that thought but that's it we're gonna go to somebody here as soon as they tell me we're gonna go to John and Philly how you doing today John David I'm doing very well thanks for taking the call go ahead oh for a report yes no I am calling in specific about Taiwan semiconductor TSM okay I've done so because I was listening to your program and you were just speaking of the semiconductor business before I ask Sam I just make an observation on highly valued stocks I'm thinking I'm thinking a stock that I've known very well going back to late 2018 frankly thanks to you that's doc you sign you were the one in the fourth quarter of 18 who went through a fairly extensive business description of two that I recall interestingly enough doc you sign in Avalara and interestingly enough since I was fully prepared with knowledge of the business and have seen the IPO share sale digested in 18 of course I was totally asleep at the switch and failed to buy those December 18 January 19 doc you sign rallied you know we're more than a double and a triple and then kept going and I did do some trading six weeks intervals before the the actual top came in place and the observation is now the stock is down what 70% or what have you and you hear the what people failed to doc you sign Pete price wise had no bearing on you know any reality looking on the big picture longer term and doc you sign is a great company and it's growing like a weed that's all true but from those highs because of the high valuation you know the stocks down whatever it is 70% thinking of highly valued stocks just thinking of doc you sign as just an example I wonder is Taiwan semiconductor could that go down another 50% and end up being a pattern that looks very much like Ali Baba we'll be back in just a minute with the answer to that hold on through the break John are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property Tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating Tiger real estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market for you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future called Tiger real estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at Tiger at tfnn.com that's 727-329-8322 call us today the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter the 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consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV as we return is John still on the line I am David looking for your answers sir thank you good enough here's the quite a here's a couple of things I was gonna talk about it earlier and I didn't do much with it that's a xenon gas for the lasers that etched the chips at Taiwan semi a lot of people been talking that up probably not as big an issue as a lot of people think everybody else is just scared to death that China will follow them but I don't know how do you price monopoly because they certainly have it they can charge whatever they want the only thing is maybe they get a little bit more business to some of the other competitors or would be competitors but everybody's five years behind them so what is a company like that worth yeah it's the hand in the hands of the traders who work for yeah I don't know how you handicapped an invasion right the only thing that holds them back is that you know there are there's some gaps in in in the pipeline for production a few of them but for the most part they've done very well on that the xenon gas is probably the biggest thing they face right now that went from three dollars a liter to about nine dollars a liter and adds about two cents to every chip that they make on the high end so is it a bit the bigger thing is just getting it they used to just after it would have been used for two weeks they would just they would just let it evacuate into the air because it's a noble gas no big deal now they're actually recycling it there's machines that do and some places actually did recycle it and had underneath the production floor had a recycling center for the xenon gas in the lasers but these trying to remember eczema lasers that used see used a variety of gases but the one that's tough is xenon because that all came from a giant plant or two in the Ukraine that's why everybody's wigged out about that but you know three dollars a liter to nine dollars a liter for something that you change every two weeks is not I think the story out here so I've got to put it chalk it up to thoughts of invasion business hasn't changed they're running at 100% capacity so you know it's it's that they've got a high volume 145 high at with 52 million chairs if we can get to the point where we think that the Chinese have learned that the whole world would turn against them like the Russians did or turned against the Russians maybe that changes something but I think that's going to take some time I still think it's a monopoly and monopolies can charge whatever they want thanks so much for all those those thoughts do appreciate that I just yeah I don't know how you handicap invasion so I I struggle with that as well in in parting I wanted to just pose a question certainly not something I'd expect any response to write this minutes but food for thought to think about I'm struggling with what I think's an important issue and a question here it is and when you talked about that the the price decline the abrupt price decline the past though five trading days in TLT it raised this issue in my mind David I make this observation starting back last summer as inflation as inflation pressures were proving not to be transitory the yield on the short-term dated US treasuries specifically like the one year the two-year types you know increased just forget about Russia Ukraine and what have you that issue those rates have moved up dramatically in spite or what 18 months 24 whatever still hold close to two trillion or something the albeit positive interest rate participants banks and funds and all that jazz who use the reverse repo facility two-year treasuries because you could get you know 1% 1.5 whatever the number something huge relative to the isn't persuading that move why what's this all about help but think it's massively important if you ever come up with an idea on that I just be dying to hear it so thanks for thanks very much for your time David you bet as we wrap up this segment which pretty much takes us into the last two minute warning before the end of the show after the next commercial break you just have a look at it but you know and I see everybody buying bonds as they did today the 30 years and stuff it reminds me of a movie that is turning 50 years old here next week and I'll celebrate it but of course it's the godfather a lot of wisdom in the movie not generally is stuff you find but I do find that you know I refer to a lot of stuff from that movie and to me the bond moves and some of the stuff that we've seen over the last couple of days is going to the mattresses when they all had to have a war and sort everything out we've got kind of that now but generally I'm a big fan of buying when everybody's saying the end of the world is nigh I think says there's at least some areas that are pretty good I'm more on the S&P side first maybe the Nasdaq starts picking up sooner rather than later but I'm thinking maybe it's going to follow a day or two or three into next week I don't know what's going to happen maybe it is a ceasefire maybe it's 20 other things that could get better in the market for just a short period of time make everybody still think the market go higher I'm not incredibly bullish but I think in the very short term we could see higher prices we'll be back after this and wrap up the show sharpening North skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8 30 a.m. to 4 p.m. Eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day first-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com educating investors are you looking for secured investment which pays 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Petersburg Florida your investment can be anywhere from 100,000 to 500,000 you want to make 1000 per year on 100,000 dollars invested or 7,000 per year on a secured Tiger first mortgage the Tiger first mortgage program may be just the program for you the Tiger first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN yes a lot of comments in the emails about God the Godfather movie and you have 50 years old they're making a making of the Godfather that's gonna be I think some series I didn't catch where but I always love this part that I think is from the Godfather to Michael we've bigger than US steel no for some reason that one always stuck with me out there but I love it anyway what else do we have out here okay let's do this let me get a few of these things out of the way here so I can start talking dollar index is pretty close to the highs 98 dollars and let's call it 9850 it's within two one thousandths of a of the high out here kind of bouncing around when we go and start looking at some of the other ones like gold it's kind of fighting to hold 2000 here today again the consolidation maybe 1975 maybe 1950 I'd love to see everybody say that it's the end of the thing and it was a false breakout and be despondent maybe I don't get that but generally if I get just the absolute worst is a good time to buy after a bounce in gold it's a real heartbreaker of a trade generally and lastly when we look at crude out here of course up at 130 now down to 106 28 and you know if you just look at it for a little while out here it's back through the lows of to the what about yesterday evening so yeah I think you could get 100 bucks pretty easy I think there's that in it over the next couple of days just give it some time if you want to be long some of these things they just need to consolidate out and I think we've got kind of a week where maybe maybe the equities are back in play so when you can not when you have to we'll be back here tomorrow like Arthur and the Philippines will be back