 So we are at 12.15 now so I am going to start the webinar officially, so I just had a quick question at the beginning of the webinar here which was which books are good for learning some market analysis, I am a charter technician I had to read a whole number of books in order to get that designation a lot of them on specifically on technical analysis so there's a lot of books with technical analysis in the title which are specifically pertaining to how to to read the charts so yeah someone who's read a few I certainly recommend those the the sort of Godfather if you like of technical analysis there's there's really a couple Martin Pring so maybe I should just write this down into the general chat window here Martin Pring and Murphy I'm actually googling here because the other Godfather is Murphy I'm trying to remember is John Murphy these really if the funny thing about these books is that I've read multiple but I always come back to these and you learn something new every time and I just keep thinking actually you know you if you if you read and really understood all things in the books that these guys have written on technical analysis you're pretty much covered it's got all you need for the kind of simple analysis that can be used to build a trading system that you can consistently trade and hopefully profit from in terms of fundamental analysis if there's such a wide gambit there's so many different approaches to to investing and trading obviously all of different times of time horizon I would say maybe the first step would be determining whether your interest in value investing which is buying at lower depressed prices or or more like momentum trading or momentum investing growth investing where you're built you're buying something that's already going higher in the case of a stock of company that's already growing and you're just you know you're basically trading on the idea that that's going to keep going so I rather than a listing at numerous specific books I would say sort of you know which one of those kind of make some sort of intuitive sense to you the value investing one is tough particularly on a sort of trading type environment because you know we're you know the way we do the trading here is you know we use often times use some leverage and we're trading typically on shorter term moves and it's difficult to determine the long-term value of a company within the short term often you have to kind of ride out a bit of pain so someone like Warren Buffett can do that very well but you know if you've got more of kind of the shorter term trading mindset obviously just for most of us distinctly less funds available to trade than than Warren Buffett then actually sometimes that value investing approach isn't as appropriate and trading does lend itself a bit more to momentum investing what I talked about in these webinars a lot is the support and resistance which can sometimes trigger excuse me a breakout and and some some new momentum coming into the market so I'll try and touch on that a bit when we get into it so with through those terms and conditions there on so I'll bring up the trading screen the way I typically work things through here is that I mean I've got various watch lists that I have set up on my screen but the the the default here is is the indices effects and commodities I'm going to start with the indices which have been interesting of late particularly in US markets because we're we're in record highs in the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 as I'm sure you know so the question is can this break out to record highs sustain itself are we looking actually at more like a fake out so you can see just looking at this weekly candlestick chart which can be good to even if you're trading short term just to have a quick check at the start of the week of the the market you're trading to give it give yourself an idea you can see that the momentum is slow look at the massive turnaround from the Brexit lows right up to 18,000 in the Dow and we sped up in the next couple of weeks but really ran out a bit of steam last week you know still made gains but not really quite not not nearly quite as impressive but it does that mean we're just looking at more steady gains going forward are we about to roll over so looking at this chart you can see we've broken out of this trading range that we've mentioned in every webinar for for years now but we can gain a bit more detail by dropping down to the daily chart one thing that I'm looking at when you record territory obviously a bit target to a bit difficult rather to target specific numbers on the upside because we've never been there before so there's no previous price action above a record high obviously so one thing you can use is this Fibonacci extension you can find that here down in the draw tools not a retracement but an extension in this case because we're in an uptrend draw off a the second to last low to the peak to the last latest low and then it gets you up to a projection point and so this is the first one actually it's the I think actually lost the level there but it's the it's let me draw in again I've drawn it is right at this 1800 mark so if I hover over here I can edit this indicator what I can just put in is 61.8 so it's the same Fibonacci levels there you can see it's pretty much at this 187 I've got so a round number confluence and the 61.8 level here's the hundred percent so it's kind of like this move again from here would take us up to nineteen seven two two so that's a really big bull market type scenario obviously that's that's just pushing well into a nice new uptrend so if we get through 1800 you know that's obviously what the big round number of 19,000 in the way but that could be an eventual target up there at 1900 and you know just because we're in record highs don't believe we have to drop again we don't it's certainly you know every every new bull market starts with highs getting taken out it has to obviously so the moment short term we're still very much in a in a kind of bullish scenario we've broken out of the old range where prices are trending higher signs of a bit of a lost momentum but if you look at this daily RSI we're above the 60 that was resistance we're pushing up towards the 70 level so still more room to go because we're not overbought the event risk this week are I would say to mention to my mid-morning note there's sort of two things I think needed to keep this this bull run going is earnings they're expected still to drop year over year corporate earnings particularly in the US but there a lot of the results are coming in ahead of expectations so the drop is not quite as as big as somewhere expecting and so if results could keep coming ahead of expectations that's a good thing secondly we've got two central banks this week the Fed and the Bank of Japan the Fed what we want to hear is the fact that they're still sort of steady on there on their policy outlook so they're not going to make any heavy hints that they're fed that they're about to raise interest rates anytime soon they probably are just going to kind of change the language a little bit because of the last non-farm payrolls result was a big turnaround so the June non-farm payrolls was back into the 200 plus territory whereas obviously in May it was they the US economy barely grew any jobs it was a complete aberration it looks like at the moment but obviously it was a bit of a reason for concern at the June meeting at the Fed so what we probably want to hear them say is that yeah the jobs outlook has improved a bit but we're still a bit uncertain and you know we're going to try again we're going to keep monitoring things so that that probably isn't going to be you know he says much of a market event for the Fed as long as they don't as long as they're vaguely positive on the economy but don't signal too aggressively they're going to hike rates that that shouldn't be enough to stop prices going higher in my opinion the other the bigger one unusually is normally the Fed is front and center this week it's actually the Bank of Japan where early on Friday we'll find out whether they actually ramp up their stimulus for the first time in a while they cut rates and that wasn't received too well now they the government in Japan has been re-elected got a new mandate to double down on this policy of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus so it looks like they're going to pump a lot more yen into the Japanese economy via spending programs and they'll also going to potentially cut interest rates more into the negative but I think what the bigger hope here is that they're going to do more QE to buy more government bonds municipal bonds and even in in Japan actually by ETFs as well so look at the US 30 here but probably the biggest direct beneficiary would be as we've got it here the Japan 225 so keeping the kind of chart analysis in mind if you think the Bank of Japan are about to ramp up stimulus what you're basically eyeing up here is that this range that we've been in for a while is going to get broken so the top of this range is just shy of 18,000 on the Japan 225 on the on our proxy for the Nikkei about 17,000 at the way at the moment so you're basically wagering on 17 breaking 17 to 50 ish breaking which was a bit of a sort of interim level and then up to those eyes again because Japan obviously goes without saying that Japan's Japanese stocks are going to benefit if their central bank actually start directly buying stocks or alongside other risky assets or more of them I should say what's the chance of them doing that it seems high that's the general expectations that they're going to do something the other the other consideration here is helicopter money because what the Bank of Japan have done so far hasn't really worked so there's the just there's a possibility that even if they increase QE the markets could be disappointed because they haven't done helicopter money that's basically giving money directly to the public for them to go out and spend on the economy and rev up growth and inflation so helicopter money will be the other element here it's it was last week we had a few rumors to wing and throwing I'll swap around out of stock indices into currencies temporarily this is obviously the big other big one to watch is that the Japanese yen head of this policy announcement last week we had there was an interview from the BBC saying that that's corroda the Bank of Japan had ruled out helicopter money that the yen rallied on that but then it's later sort of transpired that that interview had happened before the election in Japan over a month ago so it was out of date so we're unsure where we stand so it's possible that even though just over a month ago he was against it things have changed enough that he's now for it and if you read my colleague Michael Houston's morning note you mentioned he mentioned how when negative rates were first introduced he had said three days before he was not a fan of negative rates and then introduced them so there is a slight precedent here in in Japan at the central bank of kind of trying to shock markets so the result here would be a drop in dolly end and we're at some big resistance drop in dolly end so if they actually introduced something there would be a breakout here in the double in the dollar yen yen yen going down in value and the dollar going up in value and so we have a potential double bottom pattern here of sorts where a low which is a big number 100 has been tested twice and we're just right at so this was a trend line that was in place got a false breakout and we're back here and it works kind of two-fold so this is a different level if we push through it it's one of these examples of a momentum breakout we've broken through a significant level my feeling is that they would it would pick up steam and we could be we'd be up towards the 200 day moving average in and not you know in a pretty quick amount of time if the Bank of Japan step up the stimulus if they don't likewise I think we'll be heading to these lows pretty quickly because that will be you know that was the main reason for this rebound off 100 is that the yen is going to stop going up in value because the central bank's going to intervene so I'm going to flip back attention now to that the UK obviously the further we move away from the referendum the slightly out of focus the UK is moving slightly out of focus in terms of general influence on global markets we started around I'm always good to look at the big round numbers and so you can see that we basically started around six seven hundred but to me the move on Friday suggests that we're you know we're comfortably closed above six six seven hundred and the next natural test would be you know looking at some of these previous levels before we had the big drop-off you can see that we had a big rebound off of just above six six eight hundred six eight oh nine and that worked again as a level back in July of last year's just a year ago obviously and so we're looking to push into the highest we've been in a year on the on the fifty one hundred and to me you know it looks like obviously dependent on the this week's events that we're going to do so we've broken this trading range and so you might say well the markets high here but you know benefit of hindsight we can say even if we bought on that big breakout of those highs discounting this small discount towards that previous peak here we've still made further ground because that people have bought on the momentum of the breakout of the old range and if you use the height of this range as a gauge so basically you could say conservative five eight hundred to six five hundred is a seven point seven hundred point range so you'd be looking for seven two hundred and and pretty much back at the yeah back above in above record highs if it's a one hundred if you protected this old range from where we broke out looking across to to Europe a fairly clearly defined downward sloping trend line here I think if we get a close above this trend line again that's that's a you know it's not a horizontal resistance at this point it's down sloping I think that would probably take us to ten five hundred and the highest that we've been in a year if if we can succeed in a breakthrough there again the momentum high higher lows being formed in the RSI and then moving above the previous peak just about getting into that old area so it's really about whether the resistant breaks at this point you know it's either the cell at the resistance failing or when the resistance clears it's you know to buy on the breakout so you know you can use different criteria for whether you know whether you believe that breakouts happened or is going to sustain you know see that's a matter for a specific trading system but this is certainly right where we are here is is the level to watch it looks to me given the fact that we're back about back above the 200 day moving average we this was the the gap lower after Brexit we've recovered that it looks to me like the market wants to go higher but again we have to we have to take out this trend line first so sliding over to currency markets we had to look at the end but let's have a look at the euro here because obviously last week we had the the European Central Bank and I it was notable on that day that the market was basically hovering around 110 which is obviously a big round number and that what we were watching for is you know can will the ECB disappoint with no more policy stimulus and if so if they disappoint and don't do anything to try and weaken the euro the euro should bounce it had a very modest bounce on the day and then actually you know pretty much moved into the lows and on the Friday dropped and closed below 110 for the first time in a while for the first time since you know if you look at closing obviously it's tested several times but never actually closed on Friday it did close to me that was a bit of a shift and I think RSI is drifting down we broke this rising trend of high momentum and the RSI here we dropped down on the Friday and you know of course we can have short-term bounces but to me that the trend now in the euro is lower so I think the natural area that we probably need to test if we're closing below 110 it's just above 108 where we had a strong rebound back in March looking at sterling we've got a potential inverse head and shoulders setting up here so this being the the left shoulder this being the head and then this being the right shoulder the action from Friday suggested this pattern may fail and so then really what we've you know again back to the round numbers concept is really to my mind what we're looking at here is is is 130 you know that's we tried to push lower on 130 didn't succeed and we bounce quite nicely but obviously there's still a fair bit of uncertainty about the effect of Brexit on the UK and on the Bank of England who have hinted that they're going to perhaps cut interest rates at the next meeting in August which will obviously be a negative thing for the pound and so still you know we've got that big bounce higher off the lows because 130 couldn't get taken out decisively but it was more of a sort of short-covering rally and people have sold into it so now what we want to see is this lower trend line pretty much holding perhaps with a dip down to 130 but then people buying at 130 again that's that's a round number that we're really watching if 130 gives up then obviously the next one is just the low right at 128 but if we do get some movement off these levels then the next one is then you know really logically the market needs to test the previous highs or perhaps just below them with this down sloping trend line connecting these two peaks here above there you know you're basically projecting the height of the pattern above so we could see a good old recovery in in sterling should this inverse head and shoulders take out you know happen I think back above that that low that we decisively dropped through should we get above this this declining trend line in this and this pattern actually does complete euro sterling is very much dominated by sterling at the moment and so you can sort of see that we've drifted very sideways at the moment even though it looks like we're losing momentum I'm you know would still be because we're making higher highs and higher lows I would still be biased towards going along the market because of the the general uptrend but I think if this trend line here which only has two touches on it but it's kind of the best thing we have to go by at the moment and think of that if that gets taken out to the downside then you've got to kind of change your change your outlook a little bit and expect a drop down to test the previous peak and then potentially this area down here below below 80 that was was causing a fair bit of resistance in the past so you know when you are trading maybe just one specific market maybe you even just keep trading cable pound against the dollar if you see the pound the pound dollar taking out that that neckline have a look across to euro sterling and see if it's taking out this rising trend line as well if that confirms it just adds a bit of credence to the trade it just shows that the the the pound is in fact gaining value not just against the dollar but you know it's a general sense of strength in the pound let's shift over to commodities one thing you know at the moment the oil has been pretty lackluster let me bring up the the Brent chart it's not really particularly going far but obviously we again with 50 is the big round number here and we just couldn't really gain any traction above 50 we didn't even get up to whether we got 52 and change and rolled over and so right now just as we as we stand on I believe the low on Friday was pretty much 45 45 0 1 so we've dropped right down to another big handle which is 45 so it's a round number you know we've we've tempted to jump off it before just ahead of it now we've dipped down right to it to my mind we're making lower lows momentum seems to be falling off we're holding at the moment but if this RSI drops this RSI 40 level drops in Brent and and we continue to take out and we take out this low to me it suggests that we're you know the momentum to the downside is picking up at the moment the truth on this short-term basis the trend is down and I don't think there's any signs yet that the markets about to turn around you really the best confirmation as the chart currently looks would be for a break above this downward sloping trend line would tell you that you're on the right side of the trend of course you can buy it lower and get it right but you know you kind of buying into the trend reversal before it happens if you are doing that the other big one is gold gold is a big mover around the the Fed meeting so if you're looking for something to trade on the on the Fed and I should mention that we've obviously got our Federal Reserve specific webinar as well that we're going to be holding but if you're looking for something specific on the on the day gold is a big mover and dolly and may not be as normally is a good one because we've got the Bank of Japan so soon afterwards dolly and maybe not but I would say sterling and Euro dollar would be likely big movers on this Fed meeting depending on what happens of course if it's if it's a neutral null event as I'm sort of thinking it probably will obviously the moves are going to be less than if something surprising happens but gold has been drifting off and losing momentum and I think it's you know it's it's happening it happened a bit later but it's it's happening at a similar time now as as oil the both dollar-based commodities you know there's a bit of an expectation that the Fed is just going to be slightly more hawkish at this meeting and the dollars gaining bit of strength I don't think they'll be that much more hawkish and maybe that will be the opportunity for gold to rebound we're a pretty significant level now one thirteen hundreds the big round number but if we pull up to the weekly chart you know we're obviously the the highs from January 2015 which we tested here and rolled away from broke above now you know this is this is how resistance works you know you break the resistance works once twice fails you come back to test the resistance as support and then it works as support and rebounds that's kind of the textbook theory obviously that you know doesn't always work like the textbook we can see thirteen hundred taken out if that does happen then my assumption is that we drop down to where the momentum shifts pretty dramatically here again on the old Brexit vote when gold spiked on sort of on the uncertainty of it all one thing one thing to note for me about gold is that given that it gold is all is a safe haven so when stocks are dropping and people are worried gold can go up but one of the reasons stocks would drop in the first place is that the Fed is maybe being a bit more hawkish and so that is a good thing for the dollar and so you know when when the dollars doing well gold is tending not to fair as well but also the thing you have to consider is that the gold is inflation hedge and if the Fed is looking to to raise rates they're obviously going to fend off inflation so I've covered the major markets I would typically look out here and we're coming into the half an hour mark unless there's anything extra that you want to take a look at I think we'll we'll call it a day about that thank you very much for for coming today and attending the web I'm much appreciated hope there was some useful insight in there good luck with the trading this we've got some big central bank action if you're trading into the individual shares not really looked at those obviously but a lot of earnings going on which hopefully cause some some movement in the wider indices as well thanks everyone Jasper signing out