 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning market kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN 830 AM Wednesday morning 60 minutes to go until the opening bell and we got markets in positive territory S&Ps up about 13 points that's almost half a percent trading at twenty eight seventy one the dollop 104 points right now twenty three thousand eight sixty five NASDAQ up fifty one points at eighty nine seventy five you see the chart of the S&P up there quite a little drop off in the final was it hour of trading yesterday from high of about twenty eight ninety we finished the day at about twenty eight fifty five you actually dipped to a low overnight of about twenty eight forty five you then proceed to see the S&P's trade about forty points from twenty eight forty five to twenty eight eighty five and since about the last two hours you've seen that market drop off these are thirty minute bars we're looking at trading from twenty eight eighty five down right now fifteen points from that price level at twenty eight seventy start things off we'll jump over the charts and we'll start off the NASDAQ 100 there's the drop off yesterday afternoon from above nine thousand you trade down two and what are we looking at fifteen minute bars yes fifteen minute bars so basically about but by about three thirty you were down at a low of eighty eight eighty six by three forty five right now you've got that market trading at eighty nine seventy one almost made it back up to nine thousand and twenty we made it to nine thousand and eight at about six a.m. S&P's we covered the highs yesterday were about twenty eight ninety we were up there within about five S&P points twenty eight eighty five dow thirty quite the sell off yesterday as well we go from above twenty four thousand we trade down end of the day to about twenty three thousand seven twenty eight market dips to a low of twenty three thousand six forty four currently trading twenty three eight seventy two crude oil market twenty three dollars and thirty cents quite a little drop off we just had folks in the last hour and a half seven a.m. Eastern time you're trading at twenty five fifty fast forward to eight thirty and you're trading two dollars and twenty five cents lower remarkable run volatility continuing we made it all the way up to twenty six dollars yesterday right on the dot Tuesday night seven thirty p.m. twenty six point zero zero nine we're currently trading almost three dollars below that level with crude and we get EIA inventories two hours from right now ten thirty we get the numbers on that Tom and I will be on the air live for those numbers go contract seventeen oh three right now and you got the euro US dollars trading at one oh eight oh seven terms of what else we have happening in the market it is earning season GM out with their numbers eking out two hundred and ninety four million profit in the first quarter despite the pandemic crippling production and sales GM had about thirty two billion in available cash entering April including sixteen billion from its revolving credit facilities so that number two hundred ninety four million dollar profit on an adjusted basics basis GM its pretax profit for the first quarter was one point three billion down forty five percent from a year ago GM reported a net profit of two point two billion in the first quarter of twenty nineteen it's adjusted pretax earnings with two point three billion a year ago jumping over to GM it's been a tough deal to be a car company right check out that drop from twenty four even in the last few days putting some context in this from thirty five to fourteen we're gonna open today at twenty two fifty GM trading a bit higher on that news we got Disney numbers after the bell last night Disney missing on the earnings beating on the revenue there's your volatility number on Disney we were trading closing out the date about one oh one you spiked to ninety seven fifty two their numbers technically coming in at sixty cents they were looking for anywhere between about eighty three to eighty six cents they had about eighteen billion dollars in revenue since this morning though seven a.m. we've traded from ninety nine twenty one we're up two dollars from that price level plus at one oh one thirty seven for Disney getting into what they had to say sixty cents as I mentioned revenue just above eighteen billion at eighteen point zero one while Wall Street had been looking for eighty nine I heard eighty six on the thinkorswim platform it says expected eighty three so somewhere in the eighties the market was looking for and revenue of seventeen point eight so they beat by two hundred one million however it's difficult to compare reported earnings to analyst estimates for the obvious reasons of what's going on in the country right now Disney suspending its dividend payout for the first half of the fiscal year you should really have no problem with that folks if Disney's almost going to be a growth company on the media side right there are parks company on obviously the parkside but you can't have a problem with the company wanted to make sure they have the cash to survive this tough year or two especially in the spot Disney is in right now total operating income two point two excuse me two point four two billion in the quarter down from three point eight two I mean you know think about that eighteen billion dollars in revenue operating income was two point four two billion in the quarter now they had a probably a decent January and February maybe in that quarter and I wonder how this second quarter is going to shape out not to mention the next year in its entirety on the company's analyst call let's say new produce procedures Disney would put in place at its parks once they reopen including limiting guest capacity implementing density controls and health precautions like temperature checks and masks it'll be interesting to see you know we're in Florida we're in Tampa we're in st. Petersburg you have Disney of course in Orlando you have bush gardens which I'm a member right here in Tampa as well and it's tough to imagine the time when you feel super comfortable there even if there's 25 capacity they're huge parks that's a lot of people typically he said the park has 80 000 visitors per day for Shanghai Disney they're talking about Shanghai Disney here but the government has mandated they operate 30 capacity 24 000 visitors the park would initially open operating well below the capacity and ramp up to reach the 30 percent cap over several weeks they furloughed 100 000 employees so Disney a bunch of stories out there but yeah you know Disney plus now has 54.5 million subscribers but Disney's other major businesses theme parks film production media networks talking ESPN you're talking Hulu not to mention producing these movies and then getting them out into movie theaters I believe it was last year they had 10 movies that all grossed a billion dollars in their own on their own at movie theaters 10 of them and you could just see that being zero from here on out through the rest of the year very possible worldwide that they can put up that they cannot put up any numbers even close to that the goal for Disney is clear to have investors value Disney closer to Netflix that's what's going to be interesting here is and you know when they start ramping things up what are you going to look at and Netflix is very comparable when you're talking about a streaming company that's now approaching 60 million subscribers I believe netflix just had a great quarter adding something like 15 million people to bring their total to 180 something 186 maybe for their subscriber total and you get Disney at 60 and Disney just started streaming in the last was it six months maybe um Disney has a trailing 12 month PE ratio of about 20 a healthy multiple for legacy media companies it compares favorable with you know Viacom but netflix is priced to earnings right now 85 so it makes sense folks you know Disney a lot more entrenched in just uh having parks you know um Disney world Disneyland Disney Shanghai let alone the the business plan of relying on profits from movie theaters but all that's about to change and be interesting to see how these two companies begin to merge because as Disney catches up to that number what's going to be the difference by a netflix with 180 million subscribers by in disney with subscribers and uh you get the reliability in the future that disney revenue stay tuned folks we'll be right back if you're in the cd market and looking for a secure investment the tiger first mobs program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in st petersburg florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from 30 000 to 75 000 the interest 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6121 to a high of almost 65 right now trading at 6363 actually conference call starting at 8am and jumping back to the cvs numbers $1.91 a share the estimate was $1.63 revenue was above estimates as well the company kept its prior 2020 earnings per share guidance in place although it said it would withhold more detailed guidance due to uncertainty and cvs benefited from consumer stockpiling of medications amid the virus outbreak yeah there we go I wanted the number 9% increase in same-store sales during the first quarter expanding drive-through testing locations and plans to have nearly 1000 across the country by the end of May so cvs shares trading up on that news 9% pretty staggering even in light of people stocking up uh at a come at a place like cvs other companies out there with action so far today Shopify out with their numbers 19 cents a share for the latest quarter that's what the market was looking for uh no excuse me they earned 19 cents the market was looking for 19 cents loss uh revenue also topping expectation expectations Shopify you trade higher but what's going on here so there's the spike to 718 you accelerate down to a low here of 656 conference call began 14 minutes ago and we get on the air how about that 666 not sure the market's liking that news uh nonetheless Shopify pretty remarkable they turn a profit um they come in with a revenue beat as well however the company said expected ad revenue excuse me yeah revenue also top expectations yeah so they're saying something on there nonetheless Shopify trading a bit lower that's a stock with some volatility recently Papa John's 15 cents a share in the most recent quarter below the estimate of 39 revenue also missed the company said the pandemic first began to impact sales in late January when stores in China and South Korea were closed and they would drew their guidance for 2020 PZA from 7780 down to about 74 right now on Papa John's Wendy's reported earnings of nine cents a share a penny a share below estimates revenue fell short of forecast as well same-store sales were down 0.2% not bad I mean these you know fast food companies able to actually keep going but the market looking for a 2% increase there Wendy's cut its quarterly dividend there's some stories recently in the news about Wendy's having beef shortages look at that action though up to 2025 conference call just beginning when we came on the air at 2003 I'm going to jump over to a little bit of COVID action just because everywhere is opening up and this affects the markets folks as we see kind of what happens you know there's some interesting facts out there that I want to make sure everybody is aware of one thing I found most interesting maybe you've seen it around the web um numbers in terms of new cases somehow plateauing about 25 000 cases are being identified daily now that number plateauing no longer accelerating but what you should be aware of here folks is the New York metro area was hit so hard you those cases thankfully declining rapidly if you pull them just out of even the rest of the United States the numbers actually climbing you really want to be careful so you know I hope everything opens up back up well but the numbers are pretty staggering and even jumping around to a few different articles what I didn't realize myself everyone heard the numbers right especially in the beginning if you compare it to the flu if you compare it to how many in the flu well the numbers we're dealing with for deaths which is shame on me for not been knowing the exact but above 60 000 people have died probably approaching 70 000 people and that's confirmed deaths in the US and the way the flu is actually counted is that they don't count the actual number of deaths for instance um 2018 to 2019 for instance only 70 172 confirmed flu deaths were accounted for during that year in terms of being tested for it the final estimate that everyone touts at the CDC between 26 000 and 52 deaths so you have the confirmed ones that are actually for sure confirmed tested positive for the flu and then unfortunately passed away versus the total number that you're going to account for that assigns to that season of loss now you compare that to of course the number of confirmed covid deaths we know we're missing some numbers just be aware of these numbers folks you know we got a lot of people listening what is the real coronavirus toll in each state so this is a a time's piece I believe from yesterday yeah all these super super super recent news and this talks about excess deaths versus normally okay and then you get down in here further and you compare it to actually excess deaths versus what's being reported new york they have 23 000 excess deaths even contributing 18 000 there's still 4300 short of probably the number of people who have passed away florida itself 80 florida of course and and then you factor in the news yesterday that's why just be vigilant yourself you know you can be out and about respect people maybe with wearing a mask when appropriate maybe if you want to wear gloves right wash your hands do all of this stuff be very aware to social distance when possible because you have an internal trump administration report that expects about and I had to go over this left to right because I was like wait a second is this 200 000 cases what are we hitting now we're getting about 25 000 to 30 000 cases a day right now and the trump administration expects 200 000 daily cases by june that's almost eight times that's like seven to eight times the amount of daily cases that we're getting right now and I like had to go over it and that's when I started researching more articles just so you understand where and that's when I said you know I should spend just a few minutes because I don't know if everyone's seen all this I am consumed by news by being in the market and I find it's so extremely difficult to keep up with what's going on because the amount of information that are that are that is just information overload so this is a projection that is being put out there and the death toll will obviously rise you know you have that choice to open back up there there may be a sacrifice you know florida's map so here's florida's map I was looking at this as well definitely a trend declining new reported cases in florida definitely you don't like to see any type of a tick up very worrisome in light of things opening back up but these are cases up here deaths on the bottom cases hopefully seeing that decline but you know if you just open the spigot and you have people you know opening back up it's it's a tough one there folks in terms of seeing how you may see a tick back up of course and I have to tie it in because I want to hear from posse I want to hear from the information that is true and it's a bummer he's not going to be in front of the house okay and it's because of quote unquote haters I want everything that that man has to say out there and you should too okay it's scary stuff so be aware of all these statistics be aware of what this graph looks like when you take out metro area when you're out there and about and just be careful out there because these numbers these statistics may be vastly under representing and we're all getting to the point where you may actually know somebody who is affected and hopefully survives or battles it and beats it but we're approaching the point that you're going to know somebody unfortunately they may pass away especially those older communities we're hearing all the nursing homes and so forth but those numbers startled me I wanted to take a look at them real quick because you should be aware of them too be safe out there so Friday US payrolls how about it we're looking for above 20 million on terms of the drop that's going to lead to an unemployment number of about 16 percent as we look for that market jumping back to the SMPs we're down about 12 points right now trading at 2870 Nasdaq 100 plus 48 in the Dow up about 100 stay tuned folks become back to finish up the program see what else we have for earnings I'll take a look at oil as well EIA inventories at 10 30 this morning we'll be right back I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12 six and three months timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me 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morning primal edge formulated and approved by nico and page of living a primal lifestyle buy it today for just eighty nine dollars click on the primal edge banner on the front page of tfnn.com don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv for the latest market information welcome back folks s and p is positive by 13 with about 35 minutes to go until the opening bell jumping back into some of the companies with earnings since last night you had Mattel out with their numbers Mattel earning negative 56 cents a share for the latest quarter they were supposed to lose 41% excuse me 41 cents so bigger loss than the market was looking for revenue also below estimates and it predicted a sharp drop in current quarter sales due to the coronavirus lockdown you see those shares trading from about eight dollars and 60 cents down almost a dollar on the number right now trading at 790 pinterest out with their numbers quarterly loss of 10 cents a share pinterest at ad spending has been slowing and that it expense its expenses will continue to grow check out this drop on pinterest no bueno from 20 dollars and 81 cents down almost four dollars down more than four dollars to 1670 initially currently trading at 1729 act division blizzard out with their numbers and ea two gaming stocks act division at vi actually trading about five dollars higher at 73 25 ea though trading lower at 115 67 from 120 30 beyond meat out with their numbers last night earn three cents a share for the quarter compared to an estimate of a seven cent loss the market was a little bit worried with restaurants shut down but they delivered from 100 you're up about 8.7% easy one when you're at 100 to 108 80 right now and you spiked all the way to 1279 actually on the number cheesecake factory out with their numbers profit of four cents a share their stock trading basically muted so far this morning up a bit and you had planet fitness pl in nt they missed instruments by 18 cents a share it's interesting all these companies hugely fundamentally affected right gyms restaurants um a meat production production company so planet fitness fitness missed that estimates by 18 cents a share i'll get it out with quarterly earnings of 16 cents a share revenue well below estimates pl and t is their symbol and trading a bit lower but up from 52 85 last night and we'll check on the vixx as we wrap it up 32 30 down from that high of 40 32 early monday stay tuned folks larry pesavento live at nine o'clock i'll be back at 10 o'clock with tom oil inventory at 10 30 live programming all day at tfn and we'll be right back