 We've got ourselves a bit of a dilemma for today in MLB DFS And that's because I want to use all the good players and to get all the good players in my lineup I've got to pay the piper at some point There are really good pitchers for today because a lot of times it's the top end of the rotation back to the top end of These teams so we got aces. We also the game the course field that sets up pretty well for stacking So I have to decide how do I properly balance that how can I get the stud pitchers that I want well? Also, not reducing myself to you know, just the the scrubs a course field or stacking elsewhere That's a tough tough thing to balance today. We're gonna break down a way I think you can do so without limiting yourself in DFS for today So let's dive on in and get you said for Thursday's slay welcome on into the solo shop That's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down Thursday's eight game main MLB DFS slate with lots lock set for 6 35 p.m. Eastern for tonight So lock is at 6 35 p.m. Eastern if you are a procrastinator Make sure you get those things in before at that time for today in Kansas City for the Royals and the Tigers Wins are out to center at 11 miles per hour Upgrade batters for the Royals and Tigers a bit there. It is 59 degrees at course field That's not great, but it's also not terrible I would say wins are in from left at 12 miles per hour It's a bit of a downgrade for hitters from typical course field I'll still be stacking there as discussed But I would downgrade it a bit from typical expectations because of the lower temperature and the wing as far as overall temperatures for today The band of temperatures like the the the split between the top and the bottom end Not all that large the coldest temperature for today 58 degrees That is at course field the highest temperature if the roof is open is in Arlington for the Rangers and Angels And it could be 12 degrees of difference between the top and the bottom end So overall we can downplay whether a bit it will still matter for sure And we should still emphasize it but not as big of a thing as it was the first couple of games We'll dive into the pitching preview here in just one second First a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast Because it's not just the solo shot of weekday. We've got pga podcasts. We've got usc We've got nhl still cooking along as well and NASCAR as well So plenty of good stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed search for that Wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe If like would you here leave us a rating and review as well a sports fans one final reminder that there is no Better time than today to sign up for fan dual fantasy if you've been listening to this podcast considering dfs Do so right now all you got to do is deposit a minimum 10 dollars in your fan dual dfs account And you will be instantly rewarded with two free vouchers. This is a limited time offer So be sure to deposit now and play for free head over to fan dual dot com or download the fan is fan dual fantasy app today eligibility restrictions apply go to fan dual dot com or download the fan dual app for more details Pitching preview for this thursday main slate. Shohei otani is the highest salary pitcher on fan dual Checking in at 10,000 and a dollar's we've got walker buehler at 10 five Joe musgrove is 10 three kyle gibson facing the marlins is 9800 dollars kevin gaussman against the yankees at 96 sandy alcantra facing the phillis 9300 dollars and then charlie morton Rounds at the top group at 9000 dollars. Nobody else in the 8000 range So morton is the final guy before there's a pretty steep drop off Looking at the top end here I don't think we have a choice but to have walker buehler as our top ranked guy for tonight just straight up He is at home. That's great. He's facing the reds. That's even better. Which checks two massive boxes for dfs The pitch count for buehler is first time out with 78. That's not great But it's also not like super concerning. I'm projecting buehler tonight for 90 pitches Which puts me at 6.19 strikeouts for today That is not as high as some other guys on this slate But the win odds here are very high the projected runs loud are very low and those two things do matter as well Buehler in his first start this year. He was fine. He went five innings five strikeouts two walks That was against the rockies. So not in a great offense But they might be better than the reds and that game was in denver as well Whereas this one is in los angeles buehler has a 3.68 skill interactive. Yeah, right over his past 17 starts With fewer forcing fastballs His strikeout rate is 26. He has tremendous bad at ball data. So I don't think buehler is the highest upside guy on this slate There are some other guys here with more strikeout juice and stuff like that But buehler is the whole package. He is good in every area and that's great for cash games. So For tournaments, I'm open to pivoting but for cash games. I do think that walker buehler Is going to be your top guy for today But it's the second slot I'm going to give charlie morden the slight edge over shohei otani both these guys are on the road And that's why they're not in the same tier for me as walker buehler And neither has a perfect matchup I just like morden's bad at ball profile more and that will put him over otani for me in this two spot at $9,000 morden Did keep his sinker usage low in his first start at 7.7 percent I obviously love that because it leads to more strikeouts It's your sinkers it could lead to a dip in his bad at ball numbers though We've seen morden doing this over his past 10 starts now and in those 10 starts He's still letting up just a 28 percent hard hit rate That is the best mark on this slate in each guy's most relevant sample by a wide margin The fly ball rate from morden is still 35 percent. That's a good number, too So the guy is elit in these numbers Despite making changes that could hurt him there and improve his strikeout numbers gotta like that for sure He's facing the Padres here. They have just a 1 to 56 iso against righties based on their current active roster since the start of last year Their 21 strikeout rate is low Which keeps morden from being the no brainer top option for today But the rest of the profile for the Padres offense right now without tates is pretty underwhelming I would not be opposed to morden over buehler in a tournament because he's $9,000 That gives you more flexibility at hitter, which I will definitely take here So if I want to jam in as many cores baths as I can yet Charlie Morton to me is the guy who best enables me to do that without sacrificing upside at pitcher As far as the guy's below $9,000 I don't feel good about anybody honestly and it's not because of the floor. I don't honestly care too much about floor with value guys I want upside and we need strikeouts here to hang with buehler otani morton alcantra guys like that And not a lot of guys down here have that So I personally am not likely going below morden for my line of sorts nights But if you want a value guy, my favorite option would be yoan adan adan is it rookie for the nationals He made one start last year and won this year the one this year did not go Well, he walked four guys and four to third innings less than ideal Which has three strikeouts let up four earned runs He is kind of interesting though. He spent most of last year in high a He had a 12.6 percent swinging strike rate there moved up to double a made three starts there His swinging strike rate in double a was 20.5 percent interesting In his one start in the majors last year adan came up Nine as strikeouts and five into third innings. So he can get strikeouts. He has path a path to a ceiling It's a question of whether the walks will wash them all away Be it due to pitch count or whatever it may be getting chased in the game And adan is built up too. He went 86 pitches in his first start this year Which is one of the higher marks for anybody on this slate in their first start for the season The projection systems don't like him and that's why i'm lower here because I trust those a lot His swinging strike rates in that first start was legitimately bad So i'm not leaping to use adan, but he's facing the pirates They are a low power team Which means if he does walk some guys the odds that the pirates make and pay for those mistakes are lower I'm not super jazzed trying to recommend him here because I do want to recommend guys I feel okay using and I I'm not probably going to get there with adan But if you really really want to spend down adan at 6700 dollars would be my preference for doing so for today So for me, it'll mostly be the high salary guys bueller otani I think martin will likely be the highest Exposure guy for me tonight, but if you do want to spend down. Do you want to go nuts at course field? I do think that you want adan is a guy who could allow you to do so While still having at least some upside in that profile So let's move now to the stacks and talk about that game at course field where I love both sides for today They're gonna be the top stacks for me the top two stacks both in this game The preference is the rockies. So let's start there They're facing justin steele who lets up a lot of balls and play Steele changed his approach in his first start this year where he threw a lot more sliders And fewer curveballs and it did seem to help because steele had five strikeouts to one walk for five minutes That's a pretty decent start But his swinging strike rate there was just 5.2 percent Got a ton of called strikes that really swung things up for him. So i'm not convinced He'll keep that hot start going. That's especially true when he has to go to course field He has a 4.67 skill interactive yaw ray and his 10 starts with the cubs a 21 strikeout rate They 10 walk rate the one key thing for steele that he has down easy had pretty good bad at ball data But balls and play in general regardless of the quality will kill you in a park like this Steele should let up plenty of those based on that low strikeout rate the rockies Not as good as they were a year ago against last lefties. They lost trevor story I know they add chris bryant random gritchick and stuff. So like I downgrade them But with bryan gritchick there, they're still good enough to take advantage here So I do think the rockies to me the top stack of the day But looking at this offense here, uh with the with the rockies. I think the guy I'm most into is connor joe He's a guy who I would say Benefits most from facing a lefty joe has been hitting leadoff against lefties this year And he's got some power 220 iso for him against lefty since the start of last year It's a small sample for jokes. He got hurt But I think he's legit between him got cj crone brandon rogers chris bryant random gritchick You've got enough guys here who can bang even with trevor story being gone So I do like the rockies for today and also if garrett hamson plays I put him on that list as well So the rockies In my mind downgrading them. I do still like them a decent amount against lefties Especially in this matchup. The other side of this game is the cubs They are also acceptable. I would put them I would say like a half tier below the rockies for today. They're facing kyle freeland freeland is I think a good picture, but Is he good enough to overcome course field? sometimes yes, which is a testament to him, but On the baseline It's harder for me to avoid him here because most pitchers are not good enough to avoid at course field We've seen freeland working in a slot or more often recently And that's something he kept up in his first start this year if we look at the 13 start dating back to last year Where freeland has thrown that slot or more His skill interact vl reya is 4.03. That's pretty good with a 24 strikeout rate He's not quite at the spot where you don't want to stack against the guy even at course field But he's getting closer and that's especially true with his bad at ball data So he's got good bad at ball data too The issue here is how righty heavy the cubs are we talked about this yesterday against the righty how they had a lot of righties in there and That's works the other way here for today in this spot They're going to have a ton of righties out there to face freeland and last year righties Had a 487 slugging percentage against freeland the ISO for them was over 200 So if you're facing a more lefty heavy team I might be okay peddling back pulling back the reins here and not going hard at the opposing team But this isn't that spot So I think it's very much in our best interest to stack the cubs here sticking specifically to all their righty bats You're gonna have plenty of guys to choose from here So I would say stick with the righties on the cubs and feel good about that the obvious one here is say a Suzuki I Shouldn't need to talk you into him. So just use him But the guy I am most interested in here relative to the public probably is patrick wisdom He's got 125 plate appearances against lefties since start of last year But his ISO is 266 with a 49% fly ball rate. This guy is obliterating baseballs and he is $3,000 potentially batting third at Coors field Gotta like that for sure So patrick wisdom to me a focal point for this late Frank schwindel Wilson contraris the other guys would be pretty high on here And honestly even like nick madrigal has shown a bit more upside against lefties So Madrigal not my kind of guy for dfs typically I might be a bit more lenient on that today Because he has actually shown a tiny tiny tiny bit of uh extra base upside against lefties. So again, Suzuki wisdom the key the key Focal points here schwindel contraris madrigal also guys on the list for sure I would downgrade and have against lefty versus where you have him versus a righty For this third slot in the stacking section the best option in a vacuum is the Dodgers They've got a good matchup. They're a very good offense But with Coors being so heavily featured and how I want to spend up a pitcher I want to talk about a stack that can provide more value Maybe you can use them in tandem with a Coors stack in order to Get to Bueller get to otani with more than I think you can get there regardless But let's just talk about a team you could use for salary relief and to me That's the royals they're facing casey mice and mice it's still in the process of figuring things out and There's talent there. So you don't want to write things off by any means, but he's still in that process I love the talent. So I was curious about what mice would do at the in his first start this year And he did lean heavily on his forcing fastball It didn't help much though. He had just two strikeouts and five innings He allowed for and runs a lot of hard contact That was against the white socks and they are a much better offense than the royals, but the royals Do at least have some individual players you like, you don't like the hole the hole for the royals is Not great offensively, but individually they're not terrible mice Has led up a 42% fly ball rate since he started to lean more on that forcing fastball with a 38% hard hit rate And a low strikeout rate. That is a great recipe for stacking. So I think on a slate where I'm hunting for value I can be more lenient in stacking a low upside team Because they have individuals who are high upside and that's kind of I think the the space the royals live in for this year is The hole is not good, but there are some guys i'm okay with and I think that on this slate I do like that. Obviously There's bobby wit you can get upside via value there. He's not the hottest star, but he's got power. He's got speed I'm not gonna Worry too much about that part. There's also other birth of modesty at $2,800 Modesty does not have an extra base hit yet, and he's still bad in terms of plate discipline, but 195 iso against righties last year. He had better marks against lefties, but I'm still good with him Even batting lower in the order 195 iso with his speed definitely does work for me So even just against righties, I think that modesty is a guy I feel very good about some bobby wit other birth of modesty a couple of You know lower salary guys Below $2,800 who can help you fit in more core stacks? So you can go with a full royal stack if you want But if you want a high upside one off to save salary Witten modesty be the guys I would turn to there Let's go now to things to watch for tonight. I think the big Pitch count note for tonight is louis severino Severino got a lot of strikeouts in his first start this year. You look good But he went just 65 pitches his swing striker was 7.7 as well I'm projecting severino at 75 pitches for tonight I'd expect the Yankees to play things pretty slow in his build up here given how much time he has missed I'd expect that eventually will be on severino in the decently near future If he keeps getting the strikeouts that he showed in his first start But I want the pitch count to increase first So severino to me despite being a value is not a guy I want to turn to especially against this very potent lineup because I'm worried about pitch count and the matchup doesn't help Either there let's talk about the Dodgers here. I mentioned them before as being a stacking option They're facing louis sessa as a starter, but I'm guessing he will be just an opener where he will Pitching inning or two in the giveaway to reaver san martin as being the the bulk guy for tonight San martin is a lefty 4.68 skill interactive. He already in his three-queer starts Decent with that at ball suppression, but I do think the Dodgers Great out well here. I'd rank them Below the two Coors teams among the higher salary stacks But as you're differentiating as you want to mix up your lineups I think the Dodgers also do work for sure if you go Morton and you've got some some room to spare Totally okay with the Dodgers here Finally, I don't mind some one-offs in the nationals It has to be one-offs because they're like a more extreme version of the royals. We're like, yeah, they got some guys But the whole thing is bad. So I can't stack them probably but I can't get some one-offs here They're facing jt beer baker. He can struggle with his bad at ball profile And we saw that an opening day against the Cardinals So basically what I'm saying is want so toes and play like that's kind of the tlvr here So so toes and play I don't mind josh bell nelson cruise cabera wheeze Those guys could work as well if you need them, but it's mostly just you can use one so toe Maybe you can squeeze out a stack from bell cruise and ruiz, but Probably more so looking for one-offs here for the nationals because the rest of the lineup does matter as well Let's finish up with some home run calls before this late the boring one How could I not go with the chris bryant revenge game? It is chris bryant against his former team at Coors field facing a lefty I mean narratives, baby. We can't fade the narratives So chris bryant the boring Home run call for today the fun one i'm gonna go with andrew ben intendy, which is probably wildly here But ben intendy has been showing some glimpses this year of what made him such an elite prospect I loved tracking andrew ben intendy when he was at like double a and he had like more triples and strikeouts at one point It is double a career. He's not striking out. He's lost in the ball enough and like I kind of think i'm buying back into andrew ben intendy So the boring home run call is chris bryant the fun one andrew ben intendy's 3100 dollars Kind of don't hate it So as as a royal stack if it gives me an excuse to buy into a guy I used to adore from a prospecting perspective I'll do it. So the home run calls for today chris bryant and andrew ben intendy That is all that we have here for today on the solo shop But again, we got a lot of good stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed nhl USC and nascar still to come throughout their remainder of this week So search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Hit subscribe to get these podcasts as they go up each and every day to give you more time to listen to these podcasts and Get your lineups in before lock because the shelf life is obviously low So you want to get it as soon as possible search for that hit subscribe on apple podcast spotify stitcher wherever it may be If you have questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n and es you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your thursday mlb dfs lineups We'll talk to you once again on friday to close out the week This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network