 Welcome to today's webinar. It's the CMC weekly charting analysis with Jasper Lawler. Just going to have a quick skim through these risk warnings here. Obviously giving you plenty of time to read through them in depth. Any questions at any point, we've got a Q&A box or a chat box. You can text through there and I'm happy to answer any questions. You can send it through to the group or just send it to me individually and stay a bit more anonymous. Right, well, we're at the start of a fresh new week. We had a bit of a selloff in equities last week. Bit of a rebound in the dollar. A slight bit of instability in oil. And a good late rally in gold which is petering out somewhat today. The big event this week is going to be the Bank of England. And we've got US retail sales at the end of the week. Proceeding the Bank of England on Thursday we have UK industrial production. We had Chinese trade data over the weekend. It wasn't great but we've managed to digest it OK in markets for the time being. Helped a little bit by the higher oil price driven by those Canadian fires. Which has obviously cut production over in Canada. Also talk of a new Saudi oil minister could perhaps, even though he said he's going to keep policy the same, perhaps it could assure in a new era in which maybe they get a bit more aggressive on production cuts. So a few things supporting the oil price, that's supporting equities. I suppose the other thing would just be at the end of the week we had this. We've got CPI tomorrow morning from China and then next weekend there's something more to consider for the following week. We've got some Chinese retail sales and industrial production data. But a bit of a theme going on that some of the economic data has been slowing in April. So we actually had some decent data from Germany today. New factory orders but that was from March. So things were actually picking up in March that were the same in China but things seem to roll over a bit in April. So that's kind of damper in global growth concerns. And I think it goes some way to explain why we've seen a bit of a dip in equities. Nonetheless the show is not over yet I think. Because you can see here that we had this trend line set up in last week's webinar. And we were basically saying this is one of the risk factors for weather. Once this trend line breaks we've got to watch out for markets rolling over. Now it did break. We've got a couple of closes below the trend line but then we've got a solid rebound on Friday. And that's put us back in business. We basically can see that we had several opens and closes in around that 1750 area which is a good round number. We've got a good bounce off there. So we've kind of broken the trend line but we've held the range. So if you drop down to a sort of four hour looking chart you can see in a bit more detail that we've kind of that trend line did come into play quite nicely. We've bounced off it in the last few hours today. And so to my mind that suggests that we need another run back towards these peaks in order to determine whether we've really topped out in the markets. And I think that that makes sense because this has been such a strong rally it's due a big pullback but obviously everyone's still in by the dip mode. To me this looks like a bigger dip. You know it is a bigger dip than we've experienced since the lows in February and it's suggestive that we could come up and roll over again. But you know we haven't quite met that point in which we're rolling over yet. We're seeing some similar things in some of the other equity markets. So to me this where we kind of this would have been the logical place for the markets to bounce and push through into new highs. Here we didn't. We saw that sharp break down there and we sort of hovered around eventually broke down and a similar thing happening in this area. So this will be one layer barrier to overcome. I suspect we will. Because this kind of to my mind puts us more into kind of range trading short term range trading. So this is the prior low. We come right down to test it. So to my mind that should tell me that we're going back up to test 18000 is obviously a big barrier. But then the previous peak around the sort of 18170. So I suspect this could cause a little bit of a pullback. The 17850 but I suspect we get through to 18000 again as momentum picks up from this fall from this failed failed breakdown. Because obviously anyone who is short down here at these lows they're going to be scrambling and covering. And anyone who's short in any way in these kind of bounce as soon as we get up to here people are going to start scrambling out of these shorts. And that should be enough I think to push us back up to the highs again. As I mentioned looks kind of similar in some of the other markets. The FTSE 100 the UK 100 as we call it has bounced off the bottom of its previous trading range. So you can see quite kind of crisp price action in a way. We broke out of this tight range here. We came up. We previously discussed how we bounced off the 200 week moving average. And then we've come down. We tested the top of the range. We weren't able to galvanize enough demand off there. And so we've broken down and we've come back to the bottom of the range here. And these two lines I've had in since that range developed a few weeks ago. And they're holding up pretty well. And I think even though last week was a pretty big sell off as you can see from that weekly chart. Friday again bit of a turning point. You know you can see a pattern here across the global equities. And to my mind that suggests that again first layer of support that old resistance again. You know you never know we could suddenly start rolling over rapidly. In my sense that's probably not going to happen. Again I think we get probably back about 6300. And then again the risk rolling over. So that first layer of support to watch out for 6 to 20 resistance. Sorry 6 to 20 up through there. Then I think we're looking into just the round numbers around 6300. And up to 6400 again. I assume the sound is working alright. I'm not having any complaints. We can go in for a few minutes now. Maybe I should type. Maybe that would be the thing to do. Sound okay everyone. Okay yeah I think we're good. Okay let's have a look in Europe. Obviously we've got Boris Johnson chatting at the moment. For those watching this live. Talking about the Brexit campaign. It does seem to have hit sterling a bit today. We'll have a look at that in a minute. But talking about Europe. One of the most popular indices that we trade the Germany 30. The proxy for the DAX. You can see that we've basically fallen into a bit of a channel now. So if you remember previously. For those who attended before. What we were looking at was a potential. Inverse hidden shoulders. This was the neckline here. Which is kind of why the lines been broken several times. But I kept it in just for kind of historical reference. At this 10. 130 sort of area. Was the neckline pushed up. Didn't really get much beyond what became. A test of the rising channel. Got only just above the. It was also quite a key pivot point here. So benefit hindsight the rising channel. The pivot point. The round number of 10 500. Proved enough to be. The trigger for quite a big sell off. But we've found support at the bottom of the channel. Also was a gap. From last week. We've got quite a bullish push open on Wednesday. We gapped open higher. Just about held that gap. At least it acted some form of support. And now we're pushing higher again. So it's similar situation. In that we've got this. 10 120. With the we're just approaching as a possible resistance. But it doesn't look like. That's going to get in the way too much. And it sort of looks like. We're going to try and get to the top of the channel again. But obviously before we get there. We've got that old peak. So that you know these these. Apart from the last couple of days. Where we picked up a bit of selling momentum. It was a fairly steady decline. And to me still looks like. There's more interest. The longer candlesticks on the. On the upside. So even though I think. Longer bigger picture. I think I'd. You know I think we're going to struggle as we get to the record peaks again. Especially in the Germany 30. But also the US 30. For now you know just. Based on you know the trading. Time frame of the next week or so. I think we look quite constructive. Flipping over to. Currencies now. Maybe I'll just look at sterling first. Because I had mentioned that. That's looking. A bit soft though. Actually recovered in the last. Last few hours or so. So. Pull this out a bit to the. So. We basically. Need to get rid of this. We had what some people were calling. An inverse head and shoulders here. We've got a good breakout higher from it. But we didn't quite get to the 200 day. May. We basically had a false breakthrough 147. Basically. A sort of false breakthrough this whole peak over here. We've got well above it. I think that was. That was something like the ECB. Or the Fed. We've got a big push higher. And then we just rolled over the same day. Pretty dramatically. Maybe the Fed I think. And. Since we've come down since then. And we've seen a bit of dollar strength. As we've seen pound weakness in Euro weakness. We've even seen the. The. Lose a bit of value. So. From here it looks like. It's fairly prominent. So it looks like we're coming down for a retest. As of today we're getting a rebound. So it could actually be that we. We hold through. What's been a vaguely decent layer of support around the sort of. 144 area. But you've got to. I think you've got to say that while above this. This April low. We're still. Pretty much in an uptrend. It's just that we're below the 200 day moving average. Is why we're kind of prone to these kinds of sell-offs. We're going to. It's going to be tricky getting back through this. This bearish engulfing candle. But. I think it would have been worse if we got a bounce. And then another sell-off. We never quite got that bounce. We just drifted lower after it. So now I think. You know would you. Some sort of attempt back into the bearish engulfing candle. And. Then it's at that point. That would be the test moment as to whether we can. Actually push us above the 200 day. Moving average. Bit of RSI trend line support as well. Worth noting. Obviously we're curling up now. Just because the candle is rising. But if we roll over in the candle. Obviously the RSI rolls over with it. So bear in mind you can't judge too much. From a candle that isn't closed. If we do drop down through this. This declining trend line. Then I think logically would come down to. Test the rising one which would take us quite close. To the bottom of the previous range. Down at this 104. 140. 50 type area. Big picture here. My take is that. It would be quite surprising if. The UK voted to leave the UK. I think. I just tend to think people are going to vote for the. The safety of more of the same. Rather than risk rocking the boat. People are going to vote for the status quo. And so I suspect. Ultimately. That should be. Supportive of sterling. And so. The ultimate direction of. A pound dollar will just be determined by. What the Fed does. At the moment the assumption is that. They're not doing too much and June doesn't look too likely. For a further rate hike. Markets pricing at 8%. Seems incredibly unlikely. But federal officials are still saying that they expect. With inflation to pick up. And the job market looks solid. And international concerns are coming off. So. They still seem confident. In hiking rates. Two to three times this year. Even though there's a US election. Taking place. The fed seem confident. They would be able to raise rates. In and around that election. Seems unlikely. But still you've got to consider that it's not. Going to be a. Fed keep a sort of vaguely. Obviously they're not hiking rates. And you know. We've seen a bit of a drop off in the dollar from the start of the year. But they still. Are maintaining that they're normalizing policy. So here you can see the similar sort of thing taking place in the Euro. I did reference these. These couple of charts actually in a. Snapshot video they did on Euro sterling. And we'll have a little look at your sterling. See how that's holding up. The confluence of resistance I mentioned. But here you can see on the weekly chart. Fairly telling evening star. Formation on the weekly chart. At this line. Which you know from the previous webinars. That's been drawn in based on this. This peak here. Kind of like an average of all these these breaks. And obviously it's held here. And it's held again in terms of the weekly. Weekly open. And we've closed below it. So try to push all the way up. Failed. A fairly bearish candle stick on the face of it. So. If you're trading off that off the off the longer term range. And if you're trading off that bearish weekly candle. Really what you want is a little bout of strength. To take you up towards one fifteen. For opportunities on the downside. But. Got to consider the fact that still for the time being. We're actually putting in higher high. And and still even if we come down a bit further. It's still above this low. One twelve. So we've still got room to put in a higher low. And and push higher again. So that's that's a risk factor there. So it's not going to be a straight line. Straight line down never is obviously. But we need. We need really to kind of be taken out. The one twelve area. To surely pick up the momentum. And then obviously get back below the 200 day moving average. To have any real hope of a sustained downtrend. So I mentioned Euro sterling. I've done a whole video on it. So I'm not going to linger on this. There's basically a confluence of resistance areas. In around this one. 0.7930 to 50. So I think it's one of those where it's. You know it's not. It's not rolled over massively yet. Which is to be honest not a great sign. It's. You know you kind of wanted the momentum. Pick up straight away to show that everyone's on your side. But. For the time being it's respecting that resistance. You can see it on the short term chart here. This peak here. You know that's where we've rolled away from now. With a bearish and golfing on the four hour chart. So. The market's going to try and get back through 0.79. If it fails. Then maybe we can see this pick up. And break these lows. And then that would be a lower high. And then a lower low on the shorter time frames. Suggesting maybe that this. Longer term patterns going to start picking up some momentum. But it is one of those at the 0.79. 50 gives way. If you see a close above there. Then obviously that negates. The kind of area that we're looking at. And would actually quite be quite a bullish sign. Because we do have this rising trend line. A 50% retracement. We have a 200 week moving average in that area. And a potential neckline of a. Head and shoulders pattern. If we come down to here. You know the neckline is going to be something. That's going to be something. Down here. The neckline is going to be somewhere down here. And that would point. I would say back. You know back towards the 200 day moving average again. Quick look at Dolly Yen. We've been crawling higher. In Dolly Yen. Picking up a bit of steam today. We're through these prior lows. And given that there isn't really much in the way. You know just looking at this Bailey chart here. It isn't much in the way of resistance. Would suggest that we probably back into range conditions. I'm going to go up and try and test that. 21 day moving average again. Sorry the 50 day. Moving average again. And we also got a kind of trend line through these. Through these peaks. Which looks like the markets can try and retest. Because we had mentioned. Back again. Another snapshot video I did on. On Dolly Yen. We mentioned 105. And this is the. This is the kind of longer term support that we had there. Which we've just bounced off. So that. That longer term objective. It's kind of been hit. In Dolly Yen you can see here. And so I think you can. You know when you pull back to this longer term weekly chart. You can see. Some couple of pretty big levels. Just above 105. We're getting a rebound. As well as this 200 week moving average. So big bearish engulfing. Weekly pattern there. So still chance to roll over again. You can see why based on these. Areas that we're getting some pushback before we. Eventually could roll over. We look at crude. It's coming off the ties of it today. Particularly Brent. We basically got a kind of rising. Channel here. Unsurprisingly. Given how reliant they are. Looks a bit like the. The DAX. We've got a more obvious channel. Coming off the top of it. This was a kind of minor low. The marks have been holding pretty well. We're in an uptrend. You don't really want to be. Looking for shorts. But this 44. 40 type area. Has become quite prominent. Look how many days we've been holding above that. So if we do close below there. That would suggest. Some momentum has been lost. And the. The balls have lost that battle. And we could get a retest of that. That rising trend line again. Which would probably come somewhere in close to the. The 200 day moving average kind of makes sense. Going to break out and push back to test it. Test the. Resolution of the balls and then try and push higher again. Is a possible scenario here. Obviously given the strength of the market. We could have put in the low. We could be gunning for 50. Even just from these levels. So gold now. Looks like it's in this sort of channel. There's. Only a couple of tests really on the top and the bottom but. They are. You know we are seeing some symmetry here. From this low to this low. Is perfectly in sync with this peak to this peak in gold. And. Given that we had a nice bullish engulfing candlestick. On Friday. Because of that. That weak jobs number. We saw a bit of a chop around in. In the euro dollar on twitter. I kind of joked. That we're going to get a 50 pit bounce. And then a 50 pit drop. It turned into like a 50 pit bounce. Almost perfectly. But then more like a 10 or 20 pit drop. Not much really reaction in forex. But gold was strong. Just because the headline number missed expectations. Again reduces a chance of a US rate hike in June. But today. A really weak follow through. On what is quite a strong candle. On what is quite a strong candle from Friday. So. Looking like actually these two layers of support. We've been highlighting for a while. This one works beautifully. The 1,2,7c. We've got the nice bounce. But we haven't been able to. We've got basically a false break through those closing levels. And we've rolled over quickly. And 1,2,6,3, 50. Is the other big one and could hold. Given the unlikely hood of a US rate hike. That certainly could hold. But it's looking increasingly likely. That they might give way. And take us right back down to the bottom of the channel again. Which would fit I think probably quite nicely. With 1,2,2,7 those lows. Sort of like an average of those two lows. From April. And how we doing for time. Actually we're doing alright. So just quickly lastly. I'll have a look at copper. Just because that's a real sell off last week. You read my morning note. This morning I touched on briefly. That copper and iron ore have been weak. May have read separately that China have been clamping down on industrial metal speculation. That got a little bit crazy. Went some way to explain why metals have done so well in the last few months. Because there was a lot of speculation in China. That's been clamped down on. And metals have fallen off quite sharply. We don't trade iron ores mostly in forwards. But copper is a more liquid market. And you can see that was a big old sell off. And it was the fourth attempt to break 2,2,3. That is proving a really massive resistance. You can see here. And difficult to call that a double top. Just because we didn't really have a proceeding trend. You know just this little rise off the January lows. But nonetheless. Pretty solid resistance. Pretty solid resistance. And so I think the assumption now is that we're in a sort of range. So the possible bottom of that range is 20650. I've got highlighted on the chart here. Just that low. We put in here. Or we could come back down to test that broken trend line down again. Which may by the time we get there may be closer to that multi year low around one sort of 90 odd. And then obviously worth mentioning for now. We've got a kind of unconfirmed just two touch possible trend line that we're kind of stalling out for the time being. So that's it. I hope that was helpful. Do you remember we've got the Bank of England later. Almost definitely they're not going to vote for rate hike obviously. They're pretty much all going to vote to keep rates low at 9 to 0. But the thing to watch out for is that we've got the inflation report. Pretty much the Bank of England are using every opportunity to highlight the risks of the Brexit vote. I wouldn't be surprised to see them downgrade forecasts again for inflation and growth. To be honest we have had some softer data. Like I mentioned at the start of the webinar during April. I think reason enough there to probably downgrade both forecasts which is a bit of a risk to sterling but obviously we've got to consider the dollar factor as well. So that's all to be that's all to be considered. US retail sales on Friday the big one again and UK industrial production on Wednesday and then otherwise we've just got corporate results to push equity markets around. If you're trading any US stocks the busy ones this week might be the retailers we've started to hit US retail stocks report and obviously as I mentioned we've got the US retail sales on Friday too. Thank you very much all for attending good luck with trading this week that's Jasper signing off cheers