 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We talked on yesterday's show about how good the college football slate is this week and the NFL slate not quite that good But it's still pretty dang good two huge games here this week. We have bills at cheese We got Cowboys at Eagles and we're gonna break those down Get you set from a betting perspective for NFL week number six with Tom Vecchio picking his brain awesome This week's big matchups and his favorite bets at fan dual sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio Check out Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tommy Of course is a writer in a podcaster and an editor for us here at number fire ride Williams out today and Monday as he is Unpacking after his move run back with us Possibly next week of the week after to talk more about some betting angles here But Tom excited to have you on the show. How you doing today? I'm doing good. You know, we have another week of NFL Hockey star you a day I watched five hot games last night to MLB postseason games last night It's a good time to be a sports fan and NBA regular season begins next Tuesday, right? Is it Tuesday or Wednesday next Tuesday two games? Okay? to pay attention again because I like If I like analyze like my DFS like ROI I have a better ROI and basketball than I thought I did and so I'm like optimally I should be playing more but I also like I get tired Yeah, but like I just don't want to pay attention and it's like So when I have you on Monday to talk Monday football me we can talk some NBA opening night So yeah, yeah, okay looking forward to that before that that that we got a breakdown NFL week number six as mentioned We did have our college football week seven podcast with Dr. Ed Fang and Ben Stevens of sports grid swung by to talk about We got Big Ten Ben on talk Michigan versus Penn State We talked Alabama Tennessee with Oklahoma State, TCU broke down all those games and Ben's and Ed's favorite bets of this week Find that over on the Fandal YouTube page But also you're on the covering the spread podcast feed and make sure you are subscribed on your preferred platform for consuming covering the spread twisted T and Fandal have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind Contest series gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in a site credit Introduced to twisted T's college football picks a sports betting focused contest series That's entirely free to play The contest is simple each college football game will be assigned money line spread and total markets with aside points Each market all you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct selection You may if at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of site credit had if annual comm slash twisted T picks and make your picks and remember Please drink responsibly now tom Before we talk about these games we haven't had you on for a non-prop show for NFL Just yet so want to pick your brain and kind of get a read on your style with the more traditional markets in the NFL Which non-prop markets are you typically targeting most of the NFL? And why do you think those are your best markets? Yeah, I think NFL markets are super efficient I think that we would all agree that they are probably the most efficient sport and Everything comes down super tight the spot that I would go to most often It's probably totals and it's probably unders. I've been betting A lot of unders this year. I also think that live betting offers a ton of value So I stick with unders I also think that's it's easier in theory in my mind to hedge out of depending You know if you're watching the game you can kind of just hedge out to break even So I generally start with unders and then I kind of double down triple down on That as I did most bangles ravens the other night. I was uh sunday night. I was on under 42 Live betting under 40 under 38 under 36 and a half and it ended at 36. So That's where I generally go. I find my spot and I just hammer it Not to root against you But I wish that game had gone over because I did did the bangles money line in that game They covered plus three, but I kind of wish they had scored that touchdown on that one drive I was okay with Zach Taylor Actually like going forward and forth now because like I don't really want to go to overtime I don't want to press my luck Them on the spread and the money line on the team on the same week Uh typically no, I try to go with whichever number I had the most value in for this year It's been a lot of money lines. Actually for this week. I have not bet a spread Um, I have not bet a single spread and part of that's because like My money line model is getting better closing line value and better results right now So it is based on that. So I try to like tailor it towards Where I'm having like so for for baseball this year My money line model to start the year with trash So I kind of abandoned it for a long time Retooled it entirely at the all-star break and then it started to back test a lot better So I went from doing primarily strikeout props to primarily Money line the second half of the year because it was just performing better And I was getting better movement on those numbers. So for me It really depends on where I'm getting better movement and Honestly this year even betting unders on totals You're probably getting pretty good movement because they've typically gone down as the week has gone along Right and there's just so many injuries and you know, everyone says oh beginning of the season These offenses start off a little bit slow, you know, we're a couple weeks into the season But we're still seeing some Inefficiency and just you know kind of just a lack of solid play like there's no other way to put it Like a lack of solid off consistent solid offense from a lot of teams And I think the unders leads that so yeah, you know, I don't want to say like I'm Shooting for the unders to then live bet and try and middle trying like that's not what I'm aiming for Just like I really think that we are seeing some Overall bad offense right now Well, it's weird because like we we trashed this quarterback class rightfully So the entire off season and now we got Bailey zappy potentially starting again. Scholar Thompson is starting Uh, uh, Kenny. Oh, that's a Mitchell, basically Kenny picket Is starting as well I mean sam howl might start a game at some point this year. So I mean, it's uh, you know, it's quarterback play is not great Um, but let's talk about some great quarterback play and talk about the Ravens the Giants obviously refs against st Daniel Jones, uh, not Lamar Jackson in this game Uh, but the Ravens six point favorites here total is 44 and a half And hey, I mean despite Daniel Jones having some blips some injuries The Giants have overcome some pretty tough opponents so far this year Baltimore's real tough though Lamar playing Arguably the best football of his life right now Can the Giants do it again and cover here against baltimore? This is a team I've been struggling with all year because at face value I look and say, okay, the Giants aren't good They're four and one they're covering some games Then I look at the games that they've won they've won these four games by a total of 17 points combined Four games, you know an average of just over four points per game um, and you know looking back on some of these games, it's like We're looking at these games that are literally one possession If one turnover or one thing goes the other way They're all of a sudden losing these games instead of winning by you know one two three points. They're losing these games by six or seven So in my mind, I'm waiting for the pendulum to swing back in the other direction And the Giants are four and one and the Ravens are three and two this season Yet the Ravens are on the road and they're still six point favorites Which you know was five and a half yesterday moved up to six today So the market or you know the bookmakers still don't believe the Giants are actually that good And this pendulum is going to swing back the other way The Ravens are coming off of I want to see two kind of slowish games You know last week against the bangles is divisional games lower scoring to be expected the week before that with the weather versus the bills You know, I'm expecting a big lemar game like he hasn't had like a huge huge lemar game in a couple weeks So combined that with the Giants, I want to say running a little bit lucky right now I'm on the Ravens this week. That's the spot. I would initially lean. I would say The over-under super tight both teams are two and three to the under this season or two and three to the over So three unders for them. I wouldn't go there. I would I prefer the Ravens at minus five and half of course moved to six now But yeah, I'm I'm tempted by the total over 44 and a half Because if I look at like my projected offensive efficiency for this game, it does I don't have a total market a total model. So it's not saying like, hey, it's at 46 or whatever points But like it does say this game could be decently efficient and it's not just the Raven side That it expects to have Somewhat a decent game like it's also not super super low on the Giants in part because They've been efficient because they've been like say qualm Barclay's been bananas effectively if you break off chunk gains It's not inefficient around the football. It's actually very smart So can they keep getting those chunk gains because if they're not getting the chunk gains, then it just drains clock to run the football so Do you think that's a qualm Barclay? busting off big runs is sustainable like Kinda um, it's not entirely fluky. I wouldn't say based on the way that he runs based on how good he is So I don't think it's totally outrageous. My numbers do have baltimore favor by 4.17 points here, which does It does say there is value on the Giants side. I'm not betting it. Um, there's value in the money line as well Plus 205 I can't get there. Um My 2022 only model which ignores all pre-season priors has baltimore like second in the power rankings behind just buffalo Which I think is a little bit high based on the way their defense is played but I think that's enough to talk me out of The Giants and the scheme despite the fact my numbers are showing a bit of value there I'm just a little bit worried about If seguan comes back to earth, which he might not again because he's very good That's my concern. But it's also Him independently not coming back to earth. I think we can separate from the Giants as a team Right coming back to earth and again covering all these super close games winning Four games by a total of 17 points. I think is again if they're running lucky right now and You know new coach we staff good for them and all like they're having an awesome start to the season I think day balls in the conversation for coach of the year like that's all great But in reality that's going to swing back in the other direction at some point even if seguan continues to be very efficient Yeah, uh, Mike Kafka coach of the year as well. We'll get him in there. Go cats Let's move on to the second game of the week. That is the bills at the chiefs bills Two and a half point. Actually this moved to three. It might be no, it's still two and a half. Okay It's still two and a half right now. Uh, total is 53 and a half in this game Bill is our favorite on the road in Kansas City It's a pretty big endorsement of how the market views this team as they have the entire off season This is not a new thing to have respect for the market Is that respect too much in a super difficult spot against the cheese? I don't think so and I think that you know You kind of hit on it like all off season the bills were the betting favorite for the Super Bowl They're the betting favorite for the AFC. They still are the bills are almost You know $3 favorites ahead of the chiefs when it comes to the Super Bowl So I think that this you know one one possession game two and a half points is good the The chiefs looked obviously good last week when it when everything was said and done But they didn't look great to start and the bills have been consistently good throughout the year So two and a half points if it closes it too, I'm not going to be surprised But I do think the bills should be favored very slightly And this is a game with a 53 and a half over under That I am going nowhere near the under this is one of This is one of the spots that you know, I have a lot of like I guess internal theories that are internal Policies I guess you could say that I operate on for betting and when it comes to Mahomes or Josh Allen You know cross sports with a player like Janice tend to Kupo Whoever might be for these players. It's like I take the over or simply stay away. I'm not fading Mahomes I'm not taking an under on Mahomes passing yards. I'm not taking an under when Josh Allen and Mahomes are going head to head So I would either bet the over Or simply stay away like you don't have to have action on every game a stay away is a good play Stay away is not minus cv. That's for sure. Right Yeah, I think that for me I I kind of am on board of that in terms of the total I actually kind of like the cheese in this game and by kind of I mean, I actually like them quite a bit I have the cheese favored by 1.49 points in this game Based on my traditional model the one that I actually do use So that means I like the money line a lot of plus 124 if I look at my 2022 only model which again I use just because kind of like a cross check to make sure My priors are not weighing things down too much as we get into week six now My 2022 only model like I said does to the bills first in the power rankings. It does like them It does favor them in this game, but it's by just 0.81 points. So To me directionally both those are saying I should bet the cheese So I did take their money line. I was plus 130 on tuesday. I Don't think it's going to move a whole lot from plus 124 I feel like it's probably going to stick there for the most part, but I just I think that the cheese are being a bit undervalued in this game I know the bill's defense is outrageous like they can generate pressure without blitzing which is such a key thing to have um, I know that we saw Gabe davis finally get going this past week the bills haven't had to play four quarters outside of two games For this year because they just been blowing people out for the most part But I still feel like there's value in the cheese Do you feel good enough about the bill's side to lay the two and a half or is it more so just talking yourself out of taking the Kansas City side I think it's the latter. It's just take you know talk myself out of that. I will say bring up this one point I think it is good for a larger discussion if you like the chiefs in this game I think that there's value to bet on them for the Super Bowl or the a of c because that number is not going to stay the same If they were to win this game So if you like the chiefs the chiefs are not going to be they're they're plus 650 to win the Super Bowl right now If they beat the bills As underdogs the chiefs are not going to be plus 650 to win the Super Bowl at the end of this game where you know come next Monday morning, whatever So I think that's a way to look at the the larger picture as well because we started this conversation saying The bills have been uh, you know the betting favorite the whole off season for the Super Bowl So if you're going to be on the chiefs for this game You should probably look to correlate that or be ready to correlate that whatever You know your plans are if you've been on You know futures the afc championships or whatever it is like you would agree with that It's an inflection point and an inflection point is where we'll see a big shift in the market And that will be after this game whether it be the bill shortening or the the chiefs shortening So I think that there is value in that regard chiefs right now plus 350 to win the afc championship of Baltimore plus 750 that's somewhat intriguing I would say as well the bills of plus 180. I can't find any value like that is absurd the bills plus 370 in the Super Bowl The eagle is actually the shortest team in the nfc at plus 700 I still like the bucks the decent amount plus 950 despite how weird they've looked but I think that viewing it from that perspective getting ahead of inflection points or Sometimes staying off inflection points like maybe you think the chiefs can win the afc, but might not win this game having the The patience to wait and maybe grab them after this if you think that okay the bills win But I like the cheese long term so I think that just being aware of inflection points is the key right and and this is this is uh, you know Kind of one of the theories, you know, I bring from dfs or what he used to use in dfs is when it comes to injuries It's like if then what happens like if this player is out then what is going to happen? It's like okay if the chiefs win what is going to happen to their number like their number is not going to be 650 If the bills lose that number might drop that could go to you know 430 450 something and that okay, I'll jump back in on the bull Excuse me the the bills at that point. I don't want them at plus 370 right and I think of that discussion about Shopping for futures and recognizing Inflection points is a key one for our third game this week That is the cowboys at the eagles right now eagles six and a half point favorites Total is 42 and a half and the cowboys are four and one But they're also plus 300 to win the a or the nfc east like I get it because the eagles are Six and a half point favorites here. They are 5 and 0 They've got this absurd record But like you know if you think that the the cowboys are live here that could push interest that direction Now the cowboys seem like they are likely to start cooper rush again this week They have Wildly exceeded exceeded my expectations with cooper rush so far Can they do it again and cover here against one of the league's best teams? It comes down to me for this game comes down to one thing Will the scoring be under control for the cowboys? So the cowboys are one in four to the over the season and their defense is great And I don't think there's a surprise to anyone But they're winning games based on their defense where cooper rush really doesn't have to do a whole lot You know, I don't like the term game manager. I think that's It's kind of like a knock against quarterbacks who legitimately are some of the best in the world But it's kind of what they're doing and they're winning via their defense And it's you know credit to them. They're playing to their strength. They have a back of quarter back in there who's not as good as dak But they're they're covering these games. They're winning these games because of their defense Their offense kind of just does just enough So if they can keep the the scoring under control and hit yet another under this season They can cover this game. They might lose it But if this game gets out of control and hurts and the eagles offense runs wild They're going to lose this game by a big margin They will not cover and the game will hit the over So for me, it all comes down to their defense Do I can cooper rush if this game turns into a shootout like cooper rush is not going to outdual jail in her That's what it comes down to right like if this game turns into 30 plus points from the eagles the cabboys can't keep up with them they like that that's it comes down to their defense and I would side with the eagles in this one. I think that herds has been too good. I think aj brown Has has waiting for a huge breakout game. He started off the season super high. He's been a little bit quiet the past few weeks So that's what i'm expecting from the eagles a lot of points in them I would lean towards the over which is not something i'm doing very often as I said at the top of the season I don't think cooper rush can keep up with herds Yeah, I think that that's kind of the the tough part of this because my numbers do like the cowboys They like them plus six and a half. I prefer the money line at plus 235 That has moved pretty heavily towards the eagles. So it could continue to move So if you like the cowboys money line, maybe don't take it yet Uh, see if that number keeps on going the other direction because People justifiably love the eagles. They should they've been amazing like they should love this team for sure But the cowboys have played. Well, you mentioned the defense. They've been very very good and the offense hasn't been bad enough to lose them football games The question mark is can An offensive line that I think has been pretty good of late They don't have the best personnel right now. I don't think can they duplicate that against the eagles team that has caused havoc for a lot of teams So I think that's the biggest question mark there. Now if you want to um, potentially Play into the things that tom was discussing You were talking about how if you're looking at this cowboys team and you think that they cover It's basically saying you think it is a low scoring game Right I think that's the situation where you take a look at like I don't do a lot of Same game parlays because it requires me to find two bets in the same game where I show value Which doesn't happen all that often But I think that those two actually do tie in pretty well If you were to pair those together the cowboys plus six six and a half under 42 and a half That's plus 243 if annual sports book right now I think that situation where you could you could take a look at that or the flip side like tom said You lay the six and a half of the eagles and take the over so Again, I'm not a big person in terms of same game parlays But thinking about the way things interact like that because I think that if the cowboys do cover It is what you said where it is a lower scoring game Because that defense beats out and kind of keeps things in check Right and you have to take a step back and look at it and saying what happens Like what's going to happen to cause this game to hit the under like well Okay, that would mean that the eagles offense isn't doing a whole lot and You know overs obviously and uh indicate that there's like some variable that it's unaccounted for something that that's happening out of the norm Expectations are being exceeded. Yeah, so hypothetically if cooper rush passes for 250 yards He's doing so because Hertz is also passing for 300 yards Like right cooper rush isn't passing for 250 yards because that's not their game plan with him Right, so when you take a step back and say, okay, what's the actual game flow? Or what are we expecting from this? What are the like what's the deviation? What's the the 10 up? It's like, okay Well now cooper rush has to pass the ball 35 times game because they're trailing So I'm totally on board favorites Correlate now with overs and unders taking the underdogs with the under etc etc. I'm totally on board with that Yeah cooper rush though and 35 times is the worst case in it Like something has gone terribly off the rails if that happens But I think that it should be a pretty fun game And I think that hopefully it's a competitive game not just because I have the cowboys to take it But anyway, let's talk about our favorite pets for week number six. Tom when you look at the board right now What are your favorite pets at fangirl sportsbook? One that jumps off the page me would be the bangles minus one and a half on the road taken on the saints The bangles are in need of a bounce back game. Obviously a bit of a slower start to the season for them T. Higgins is still dealing with an injury, but it really comes down to the other side for the saints and They just have so many injuries and it's gonna be james winston My thomas chrysalabi like they are super banged up and This is kind of looking like a bit of a get-right spot for the bangles after seeing their defense really get torched last week by the seahawks The same set is this is spot for the bangles to you know, kind of push their offense Downfield pick up a win against what is ultimately a very banged up saints team So that's the first spot the second spot would be the vikings on the road minus three and a half They looked good last week. I don't want to say great But going up against you know potentially third string quarterback for the dolphins kind of them to you know get on the right track with their new passing offense Kind of just you know flex their offense muscles in their passing game So those are the two road favorites are the spots that i'm initially looking Yeah, uh, the the bangles one minus one and a half against the saints James did get back to practice wednesday, but like you said no a lave no thomas no jarvis landry march on latimore is also banged up and if you're gonna have I think t higgins will play uh based on what they were saying about him on Sunday, that was annoying. I had him in uh thursday through but losing him is less of an issue than jamar chase for them and then losing marshal latimore michael thomas Yeah, just even if even if he doesn't play at all just and uh tism hill's dealing with a shoulder thing I think he's at a rib injury. Yeah, he's uh, he's a little bit banged up too Um, so it's just less of importance compared to the saints injuries Right if I have this game straight up like it before I put in Michael thomas and olave, I think thomas Shepter said he's gonna play this week adam shepter vs pn obviously I don't know why I had to clarify that jetty said that uh, michael thomas probably gonna play this week I have him in right now if he were to sit I've got this at exactly like even an efficient market right now 1.5 favoring the bangles If you take out michael thomas or chris olave, that's gonna show some value at least a little bit of value on the bangles side of things so I'd agree that one there. I have the dolphin's vikings game. It's at uh I have the vikings there by 3.39 so pretty efficient number there But that's in part because I still have a pretty high for scholar thompson just because the infrastructure is so good But tarry kills banged up, um, that's secondary as mingers. I think zagan howard will probably play this week He was out the past week, but I don't want to bet on the dolphins with scholar thompson So I think that um, I can't push back on either of those personally I would also say the the last one might be the jags plus one and a half. Oh, buddy Okay, you're talking about buying futures markets right now Jags plus 240. Oh, yeah, of course. I love the jacks jacks plus two. I'm not even hiding it anymore Uh, jags are plus 240 to win the amc south. Um, I actually think that's a pretty good bet too. Um, the titans defense is hideous Like my gosh, they're bad. Um, I have like opponent adjusted numbers and like they're bad as straight up But when you adjust for opponents, they're somehow worse Uh, so that's not great. They're on a buy this week The jags I think can win this game So I've talked about my two separate models right now. My traditional model is uh showing this as indy minus 0.81 So not a lot of value in the spread at one and a half points Uh, but in about 0.26 points in the money line if I go to my 2022 only model Which again, I don't trust as much because it has no priors in it stuff like that It says the jags should be favored by like four points. So again, that's not something you should go based off I do not trust that model relative to the other one but You know one model says sufficient the other one says go jags So plus two forward to win the division. I kind of think the jags are in play So I'm not going to push back on that. I think that one's a great I I've bet against the close of a week this year to mixed results um I haven't done it yet this week and probably won't because I've lost some value on the jags, but Tempted still what about the total they are Uh indy is 0 and 5 to the total this or to the over the season Uh, I think if you if you think there are points in this game, just bet the jags team total I don't want I don't want to have to root for matt ryan. That's that's totally fair. That's not frying I refuse to have any any money tied to that Dumpster fire of an offense. Uh jags team total pulling it up right now Uh over at fan dual sportsbook actually might not be posted yet. There we go I was like, I'm the wrong Section jags team total 20 and a half over as plus 102. So you don't get 20, which is kind of annoying but You do get 21 as being a key number there So I if I if you think there are points there, I would just go with the jags team total because I don't I'm not rooting for Matt ryan in the year of our lord 2022 That's totally it's a very fair conclusion to draw Do you want the money line or the spread for that jags game? um There are obviously I think they're both I think the jags can straight up win that game. The points are obviously safer The money line is what plus one Plus where's this one plus 112? Yeah. Yeah, I probably shoot for the money line at that point Plus 12 go jags is a pro jags podcast and I am fully in favor of that That is tom of ecchio checking out on twitter at dfs underscore tom as mentioned tom We'll be back with us on monday to talk monday night football. That is the oh boy It's chargers and broncos, which means I have to talk about russia wilson again. Thankfully. I've not bet the broncos this week I get to bet against the cardinals and ignore the broncos best case scenario I'm very happy about everything involved with that tom. I appreciate you and I'll talk to you again on monday Thanks for having me Alrighty everybody that is all that we have here for today as mentioned though our college football betting podcast is up On covering the spread and the fan of youtube page and our nfl prop betting preview with jj zachery So we have tomorrow probably around 11 or so 11 11 30 on the covering the spread podcast feed and on The fan dual youtube page get those wherever you consume your content And while you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s enjoy thursday football somehow Please let's go commanders get this money line ticket for me We'll talk to you all again tomorrow to talk about some props for week six This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network You