 Hello and welcome to the CMC Markets Monday market update webinar with myself David Madden market analyst here at CMC Markets Today's date is Monday the 8th of January At least it is Monday the 8th of January This is our Monday weekly webinar What we will be going through as usual is the risk warnings a little risk warnings here on screen for you guys to read It essentially states that any topics that are covered here on the webinar are My comments on my views not to be These are my own personal comments views not to be construed as any explicit investment or trading advice It's very standard practice for our webinars here So have a quick read through of those of those those slides and what we then proceed with the webinar itself So the usual format for the webinar is I'll go to the risk warnings I'll talk about what's been going on the news I'll have a quick look at the economic calendar to see what lies ahead and in the bulk of the webinar where we spend looking at the major markets Indices couple of big indices a few of the big commodity a few of the big currency pairs and any any recommendations that you guys might have Mark the wise of a look at those and then we wrap the webinar itself So what's been going on the news over the weekend? Essentially equity markets are so are still in the kind of global equity markets I said in a very positive run that they have been in We've seen a strong obviously seen in America. We've seen quite a decent run in US equity markets It seemed like Dave Javu to be honest between record highs and the Dow S&P and the Dow Jones. We had a reasonably good. Okay, fairly good non-compare support last Friday The headline figure was a considerable miss We're expecting 190,000 jobs to have been added in December only 148,000 jobs are added, but guess what the November number was raised higher from 228,000 to 252,000 so that nice enough Move higher on the revision all the plans remained unchanged a couple of 1% meeting expectations Average earnings, which is it kind of a key detail On a monthly basis rose by 0.3% Inline with expectations and the increase and the previous reading of 0.2% and on an annual basis average earnings Remained unchanged and came in line in line with expectations of 2.5% So positive sentiment in global equities has seen the FTSE here in London The FTSE 100 and the FTSE 200 both ratchet up record highs today, even though we have come back a bit On the London market, we still managed to on the FTSE 100 We still managed to eke out a fresh record high France and Germany both posted Both posted multi-month highs so sentiment in the Eurozone is quite strong as well We did see at the back in the last week CPI in the Eurozone ticked down ever so slightly and Which is if at all considering a lot of the economic indicators of the Eurozone having quite positive Particularly I said France and Germany three in powerhouses of the Eurozone, but the tickdown in inflation and the cost of living That's something that's going to worry Mario Draghi the head of the ECB He's often got complained about low inflation or sluggish inflation in the region Which is just weak demand and bitter Draghi feels that the man is in high He's more likely to keep the bond buying scheme in place now now that we're in 2018 the multi bond buying scheme by the ECB Has got to be reduced down to only 30 billion euros a month and that's going to run off in September this year But with the dragon is constantly consistently left the door open to add an extension of the easing program or perhaps even a Beefing up of the multi bond buying size should he feel it's required and I think inflation Is it is it is a pretty important indicator that Mr. Draghi keeps an eye on for? So we've also seen a fairly decent start at least in the morning time At least at 8 in the morning for the euros of equity market. So let's have a quick look at what's what is on the week ahead in terms of economic indicators For those of you who are familiar with the trading platform under market pulse scroll down fourth option down Market calendar and it gives you the breakdown of the very different economic indicators that we've had out So first off the bat we know this morning Manufacturing orders in Germany and a month a month basis declined by 0.4 percent the forecast was for a rise of 0.5 percent and the previous reading was a rise of 0.5 percent How is price in the UK and a month a month basis according to highly facts dipped by 0.6 percent They're expecting a reading an increase of 0.2 and the previous Reading was an increase of 0.5. So this is the format It'll be the actual once it's out and show you the forecast the expected and the shots to show show you what was previously What was the previous report was? To be honest with you, it's a relatively quiet week There's a whole lot going on but the same in terms of an issue of economic announcements That doesn't necessarily mean that the issue of economic index that the markets won't be interesting So take a look to tomorrow. We're building approvals of Australia We're trading the Aussie Donner. Please keep an eye on that. We have German industrial production early doors tomorrow morning 7 a.m We also have German trade data at the same time later on in morning. We have French trade figures coming out And then we have a Eurozone auto-employment rate, which is tip to fall to 8.7 percent down from 8.8 percent Looking ahead to Wednesday We have this is the first kind of big day of Chinese news on Wednesday The early hours of Wednesday morning. We have Chinese CPI and Chinese PPI We're expecting that the inflation rate to take up to 1 by 9 percent from 1 by 7 which is fairly size of the move but At the same time we're expecting PPI which can measure measures the more the producer price index Which measures more in relation to cost of materials and inputs for the factory side I think that's the industrial side of the economy actually to fall to 4.8 percent Any indications about the Chinese economy is growing or slowing Broadly speaking it's been slowing for the last number of years, but it's slowing if it continues to cool down a gear Without actually folding up the clevering. I don't think traders are going to be too worried Later on Wednesday morning. We have manufacturing output and industrial output from the UK And then as always as always every Wednesday We have the oil and energy figures coming out so I'm trying to train the energy markets The old markets needs to keep an eye out for the old figures Looking ahead to Thursday Okay, it's a relatively quiet session on Thursday I suppose the biggest one to keep an eye out for is going to be industrial production from the Eurozone Then followed by jobless claims in the United States And then we also have Japanese trade figures out very late on Thursday night and on Friday We've numbers coming out from China again Trade figures out in China so anyone trading the mining companies or high-grade companies to keep an eye on these because even though we're talking about the actual percentage terms of imports and exports and the value of the trade Traders like to break that down into the imports and the exports component if they're importing a lot of Imports are quite strong. You could see a push higher in mining companies like Rio Tinto or beachy peloton and so on So it's a good parameter of how kind of mineral hungry China is Scrolling down for the rest of the day. We have CPI numbers coming out of Spain Later on in the trading session we've industrial production numbers coming out of Italy And then also we have retail sales and CPI coming out of the United States around lunchtime on Friday So that that's sort of the kind of the major highlights of the week ahead of us as you can tell It isn't really going to be the basis week ahead of us, but nonetheless, let's have a look at the markets now So I'll run through the major indices a few commodities and a few currency pairs at the daily markets that I haven't covered But you want me to cover feel free to enter into the chat into the chat box What you like me to like me to have a look at So the thoughts you will under has been in a fairly solid upper trend since late November We can see here is the market so since early December rather last month. So we've managed to push higher Made a quite a decisive break north of the of the previous all-time high here and it's been pushing higher ever since So the trend is clearly to the upside and the sentiment is clearly bullish. What is ever so slightly concerning though? Prices is the most important indicator out there. Everything else comes secondary. So the price is hitting hitting all-time high That's kind of is that's probably the one to keep an eye out for rather than anything else But I will say this as the market is pushing higher and they're fairly steady and what a an aggressive upper trend We're notice how the markets creating all-time highs here But if you look at the MACD indicator the MACD histogram, we can see the rate of positive momentum is actually in decline It's a positive momentum is falling. So while the bulls are driving the price higher and higher fresh all-time highs We're not seeing higher highs on the MACD indicator So you have a divergence between the two it would suggest a buying pressure is running out of steam to the bulls and the buyers are Running out of steam. So we could see a bit of a pullback in the 2100 and Over the last few few months of the last five or six weeks The market has been pushing higher buying on the dip has been a popular strategy So if we do see any moves into the south in the FT100 We could expect to find support coming to play in around last Thursday's low in around 7,670 or perhaps even down to 7,640 these areas we potentially see that the FT100 pullback to But the overall trend for the past month has been at the upside So it's more than likely that the upward trend is going to continue and if that is that if that does continue We could see a head up towards 7,800 7,900 and then of course the big 8,000 would then be on the radar As I mentioned at the top of the webinar, we have seen multi-month highs on the Germany 30 the DAX So not as a late burst In in the late stage late December early January Reckon has moved consistently higher here. It's broadly speaking been trading at a range bound For about five or six weeks now again in mid-November up until New Year itself It's been largely can a trap within this range of say 13,300 down to around 12,800 so what a five hundred point range now that we find it kind of broken out of that We could be in could be a sign that we're actually gonna snap down that and we're looking to test the all-time highs Which were achieved in November? as the market was pushing higher here, you can notice how on the MacD indicator we can see how the Momentum swung from in the red from being in from being a negative territory to positive territory So as the markets moving higher, we're seeing again a positive momentum So the the momentum momentum the direction of the change the momentum confirms the price We can be more confident that this upward move is going to last So if you continue to push on higher, we keep looking at the target the all-time high of thirteen thousand five hundred and thirty four And then beyond that pictures you're looking towards thirteen thousand six hundred seven hundred eight hundred so on and so forth If you do manage to kind of dip dip again on the DAX We could look to kind of find support in around the thirteen thousand two hundred price in around here or maybe even down at this price action here of of thirteen thousand four hundred and thirty which is a fifty-day moving average and Notice how fifty moving average previously acted as a bit of resistance here in late December as record was pushing higher So and it has quite a bit of form Trading in or around that the fifty moving average from November and December as well So the more kind of format has in the past more likely it is to act again To be a crucial crucial price point in the future But if the market does make a decisive break south of the fifty moving average we could be looking at heading back down towards the January low Which comes into play down around the twelve thousand seven hundred and fifty region Take a look now. What's going on in France with the CAC 40 similar deal similar move here where the CAC was range bound from around say four thousand sorry five thousand four hundred and thirty down to around say Five thousand two hundred and sixty it was trapped in that range for a number of weeks Now we've managed to make a fairly decent kind of decisive move out of it Notice how when I pushed higher it really smashed above It really it really accelerated beyond the uh the mid-december highs of this price here five thousand four hundred and thirteen ish It's made a decisive break north of that We've got the all-time highs of say five thousand five hundred thirty seven just in sight So we it's it's likely to continue on it's more than likely to continue on in this upward trend The market's pushing higher positive momentum is quickly increasing So we could be looking at testing five thousand five hundred thirty seven In the coming days and then if you go beyond that Traders because it's all in charge of territory traders we're looking out for Big psychological numbers five thousand six hundred seven hundred eight or so on and so forth So but if you do manage to pull back on the the cac on cac 40 that the france 40 We could see support coming to play in around this price area here Of brown five thousand four hundred and thirty five notice on a few occasions It did act as resistance on the way up and when I finally broke north of it that that area now that resistance area May now access support on the way down Similarly enough you could see support coming to play in around the five thousand four hundred region Which right with roughly coincides with the fifth the day moving average and notice how we did see a lot of price consolidation In around that price action Previously and as I said, it was kind of it ran out of steam on a few occasions just at the pros with the moving average So we could see a bit of price action We could see some consolidation in round out that metric again, but if you do break south of that Next step is to watch out for to the downside will be the two-day moving average at five thousand two hundred sixty one notice on the mark of bounce off the fence at the two-day moving average Which was a considerable turn around because it effectively printed a fresh multi month low here bounce straight off the two-day moving average and then Reckish it on to create a multi month high So you get an indication of how much buying force came into into effect when I hit the two-day moving average I would turn our attention now to what's going on and the u.s. Indices and it is just Quite impressive what the american markets have been notching up over the last few weeks and months It's been a non-stop string of of um A non-stop string Of uh record highs, so it's been a very clear This is kind of a classic example of an upper trend market moves to a higher high higher low higher high Higher low higher high bit of consolidation here higher higher high yet again created. We could be looking at setting a A fresh auto up by today after things have been going I would be surprised if you do But seeing as we've been in a fairly obvious and consistent upper trend buying on the dip has been the popular strategies I do see a move lower in the the dow Jones. We may find some Sport in around here in around the 25,120 level Maybe even down as far as the 25,000 big big psychological number In around there It's so and even if you move south again We could find support in around the lows of late december in around the 24,700 region or even down here 24,535 price here Um, I'm moving to the upside seeing as we're a few things were Uh well north of 25,000 we could be looking ahead towards 25,300 400 500 so on and so forth Now the smp 500 it's very similar similar situation where it's a very string of uh of higher highs and higher lows and silent upward trend It's even quite it's even more more aggressive to move higher in the smp So as you can see classic example of markets going to do a higher high higher low higher high higher high Bit of sideways trading and only only to go out and create a fresh all-time high So the markets in a fairly solid very very strong upward trend If any can it move to the downside we may find some support down around here at 2715 2700 itself or perhaps even down to the late december low Of 2667 all these price areas could potentially act as support should the market turn over on itself Seeing as we're in a fairly up solid upward trend the market's pushing higher here We can see a swing to positive momentum. It's actually increasing. So you get so the momentum the increase in momentum confirms the increase in price So we could be looking at heading up towards north of this to 2000 2750 760 7777 17 so on and so forth On the flip side of the equation what we've got is what's going on in the price of gold Gold has it's a bit in the red today, but not too long ago. We were at three and a half month highs So I suspect we could be looking at a bit of consolidation period of gold or a pullback in gold before we potentially move to the next level next level higher If you look at the price of gold over the last 12 months from said From the lows of December last year broadly speaking the price has been pushing higher And if you look at the price action since mid to late december This Wednesday the 13th this this chart is this bar here It's when the federal reserve high rates and the left their their outlook for the 2018 on change that of course Is going to be it might outlook may not have a fairly long timeline Seeing as the the individuals that make up the federal reserve are going to change And we want you one of a better clue what the federal reserve are thinking until all those fed members are announced In the meantime the market has been in a fairly solid upper trend since mid november You can see here that the market started consisting with pushing higher as the start to push higher Negative meant to start to decline. It swung at a positive momentum territory which has been pushing higher and higher We have seen a bit of a pullback in the price. We've also seen a bit of a cooling off in the rate of a positive momentum So what we could see from gold is seeing as I made a fairly decisive break north of the october high Without to create a multi-month high a three and a half month high only last thursday We've pulled back ever so slightly from it since then what we could see in gold is we could see a bit of a drift lower Or a bit of a consolidate consolidation sideways move We could drift lower down towards 13 306 which coincides with the october high or perhaps even down towards 1300 Big psychological number and also coincides with the late november high Before we potentially look to move higher again And if we do continue this upper trend that we've been in since mid mid december We could be looking at heading up towards 13 34 Which is which is a lot of a large consolidation area from uh from september And if we go north of 30 34 both would then be looking towards the september high of 13 58 If we do manage to have a fairly decent breaks out of 1300 We may even find support in around the water day moving average at 12 89 or even down at the 50 moving average at 12 79 Notice how both the 50 moving average and the Water day moving average and the 50 moving average manage actors both support and resistance in late december And when they have that kind of previous contract record of doing that it makes it the more likely that they'll do it again in the future It's only if we have a kind of a decent break south of the eternity moving average Which comes into play around 12 72 Could then we when we get worried that we could be looking that this that this upward move is turning over on itself And then we could be heading back down towards 12 36 the uh the december low and if you go south of 12 36 We could be heading back down towards the 20 17 low Which which was created in july of 12 04 So the oil market now has a look quite strong recently. It's been up crude and w2 brain crude and w2 i Have been a fairly solid upward trends over over the last number of months over the last say six months We have seen a small bit of um price consolidation in the last two sessions the fine large the market is quite strong So the trend gone from july last from june last year has been very very consistently to the upside The pullbacks that we have seen have been quite aggressive, but that's the energy market for you But the direction of the price has been very much to the upside As I said, uh upward trends buying the dip has been a popular strategy and seeing as we just it would appear that we've Given back a few cents or the guts of a dollar in this move here We are seeing in terms of positive momentum cooling air itself slightly so we could see a bit of a period where The market ages a bit lower before potentially moving on to create another higher high because we are at We did create fresh two and a half year highs only last week So if we do end up kind of pushing a bit lower in the price of Of a bread crude in the next few sessions We could be looking at getting support in around the 67 62 area here Or maybe down even at 66 dollars a barrel or perhaps even down towards 65 dollars a barrel These are all areas you could potentially find buying by additional buyers coming to the fold should the market move lower But it's a bit in a very consistent upward trend over the last six months So the next big psychological order to look out for the upside will of course be 70 dollars per barrel WTI West Texas Intermediate has had a fairly similar looking chart in that's been gaining ground for the past six months But no and we've had recently hit a fresh two and a half year high not only last week But at the same time we've also had a period of consolidation and The market having it's ever so slight pullback So a very similar price here solid that up for a trend series of higher highs and higher lows Mark we don't create a fresh two and a half year high here on thursday We traded a bit lower as you can see the positive momentum was steadily increasing Confirming the positive moving the price and now we're seeing a slight decline in the positive momentum Just as we're seeing a slight decline in price. So the two are moving in tandem So what you could potentially see here is maybe a drift back down towards 61 or perhaps 60 dollars a barrel Or perhaps even that's low as 58 85 But as I was saying the the trend for the past six months has been to the upside Uh, it's uh, that saw us more like seeing as the trend has been going for six months It's more than likely that that that it will continue And if you manage to keep pushing higher on the price of wt on the price of wti The next big psychological Will of course be 63 dollars a barrel and 64 and 65 to the upside So we're coming up with a couple of currency a few currency pairs before we wrap things up Uh, any markets that I haven't covered and you would like me to cover Please feel free to stick it in the chat box now because we'll be wrapping up the webinar in the next five or ten minutes After I get a few major currency pairs out of the way So the big picture for the euro dollar, especially from the last from the last Come back from 2017 has been very much to the upside euros. I said a very impressive 2017 If you look at what it what it did after it hit the price level I got to in september Was the price of the hash in september and actually also for the recently as well We're not seeing since late 2014. So talking about basically three year highs for the euro versus the u.s. dollar After quite a positive run through the summons it gave back quite a bit of ground here But then ever since uh november it has probably been pushing higher and notice how the market here Ever so slightly didn't quite get there But on thursday last week it just nearly got to the september high and if you go north of that september high We'll be looking at fresh three year highs for the euro dollar. So That tells you kind of all you need to know about how bullish the market is about the euro versus the u.s. dollar So as you saw here in november, we did see alert from september to november we did see a bit of a pullback from the wider Seven months of gains previously and now we're seeing a bit of a pullback here So we could see it potentially a drift lower perhaps down as low down towards One 1961 the late november high or perhaps even down towards 119 because Psychological number and also you have quite a bit of price consolidation in around the 119 area And even if you go south of 119 we may even find support from the even the move from the 150 moving averages In around the 118 27 or probably even the 118 mark itself because notice how the market did manage to Act as a bit of support and resistance in around In the last number of months of all those metrics It's only if if you if you take off at the december low of 117 17 Then you might get worried then you might be thinking that the positive trend as Is turning over on itself and it moves south of 117 17 could take us back down to the november low of 15 54 The pound versus the u.s. Dollar the pounds been in a solid upward trend for the last nine months If you draw a low from if you draw a line from the from the low of march last year through the lows of october this year You'll see that there's been a fairly solid upward trend This low here draw a line through it to the october low not to be fair to it. It did manage to Break through the line on a few occasions in in the first few weeks of november, but it never managed to have a very decisive break So while it holds above this trend line here It's likely that the upward trend in the pound versus the dollar is going to continue and notice how here On wednesday last week, we didn't manage to get a fresh three and a half on high on the pound versus the u.s. dollar So gives an indication of what what what what market sentiment is like So the mark has been an upward trend for nine months. We hit a three and a half month high only last month So if we do see any kind of pullbacks, we could see some fresh buyers enter the fold So if you do see any any pullbacks in the price of the pound versus the u.s. dollar We may find some support in around 135 mark or even head down towards going to 134 And it's only in around the support line will potentially come into play in around the 133 60 or 70 mark While we remain north of this trend line here is this likely we could seek a continuation of the upward trend in cable It's only if you can have it have a decisive break of that trend line here If you have a decent move south of the water they move the average So if you get down to around 132 or so or a break 132 Then we could be looking ahead back down towards the kind of the 130 130 50 region which is in around a 100 200 day moving average Taking a look now at what's going on with the euro versus the british pound euro sterling So broadly speaking if you look at depends which kind of time frame you want to look at But since august euro sterling has broadly been kind of pushing lower estimate as it is your textbook example of lower of lower lows and lower high It isn't your typical example of lower lows and lower highs, but that's exactly what we've seen So we have the august high here You had the new low Lower high lower low lower high lower low And this this could potentially Be a lower high that we're seeing before we continue on and have a move south again This potentially what we could see So as it ran into resistance at the water day moving average and notice how we did see some trade north We did trade north of it at one or two occasions, but nothing managed to really stick We're not pushing south here for the time being it's getting support from the fifth day moving average because the fifth day moving average acts as support in late december If we do have a decisive break south of the fifth day moving average Which comes into play in around 88 55 Because then we had looking looking towards the maturity moving average which comes into play at zero spot 88 20 And if you go south of zero spot 88 to zero zero Then we could be looking heading back down towards the december now of zero spot 89 So 86 89 this this this price area here And notice how as the market was pushing higher here. We saw An increase in positive momentum And now as the market is looking like it's going to potentially turn over on itself What are we seeing here? We're seeing the positive momentum slide. So this is what i'm talking about for buy The market was moving higher But but at the same time it was moving higher and kind of lower momentum lower energy The the kind of the fury that the bulls had was kind of running out of steam So we could be looking at moving south and if you do move south we could be looking heading down towards 88 89 and if you do Take out that level that will be the creation of a new lower low And then we could be heading looking at heading back down towards 86 the figure Notice how we saw a better price consolidation in late may from that area So seeing as yet, you've know the suggestions about what markets we're going to look at I'm going to cover dollar yen and then show you a few things on the platform and then look to wrap up the webinar So if you take a look at the dollar yen if you look at the uh the lows in September on look at the price actually never since then it's been broadly been pushing higher It's been a bit erratic. I know but broadly speaking since the lows of september higher high higher low higher high higher low It did have a The lows in november did managed to take off the lows in october But since then the market has been pushing higher. It does appear to be very much range bound because It's fighting it's struggling to get to kind of say north to say 113 60 But at the same time we're getting quite decent support from the 112 area and Now now actually that actually kind of coincides with the water day moving average So while we remain north of 112 It's likely we could see And the the wider trend that's been in place since the lows of september The positive trend to remain in place and if you do keep pushing higher on the dollar yen The big level to watch out for to the upside will of course will be the December high, uh, which comes to play at 113 75s Beyond that 114 and then beyond that look towards 114 1773 and then if you go a bit north of that up towards 115 62 But if you do but if we if we do manage To uh to pretend that I decided to break south of 112 We could be looking heading back towards just south of 111 Which comes to play at the late at late november and if you take out 111 The next big level to keep an eye out for to the downside will be 110 and then south of that from the mid september low Of 109 55 So I'll show you a few quick things to keep an eye out for on our training platform Um under the market post tab you we have the Market calendar. That's where the economic calendar is but we also have We also have the insights section. Uh, that's the second tab down. I have a displayed here Insights is where we post economic economic updates. We talk about we advertise about very different webinars And seminars that we have going on We also some of the some of the articles to myself and the other round That's right to get posted to the insights sections if you want to keep an eye on what's going on news wise you can find it there under the chart forum Which chart for can be found under market pulse, which is the third option down What we're doing on chart forum is we take a quick snapshot of a particular chart and write a few words about what's going on On a particular chart talk about the direction of the uh price action and also comment on some key What could potentially be key prices Also to make us aware in terms of news analysis Some of the news analysis we do get posted to inside whereas some of it gets posted to our website Um, there's some crossover, but not a whole but not necessarily not not exclusively And if you go here the news analysis, give you a breakdown of the various different most recent articles Myself and other colleagues here at cmc post from around the globe And that's been out laced. Uh, just want to bring your attention to other webinars that we do have on Uh, so this is obviously today's one that you that you signed up for and this one here Is a the foundations of technical analysis. Uh, let's start tonight Um, monday the 8th of january at 1900 gmt 7 p.m. UK time I was starting to recommend having a listen to that because as a person who's gotten into technical analysis the last two years Uh, I can tell you that technical analysis is actually really worth paying attention to Especially to trade markets on a short-term basis Well, I do want to thank you for your time and your patience and for tuning in this week Please tune into our future webinars And uh, if we're not speaking simply before then have a good training week and good luck. Thank you for your time