 Welcome to another capsule on international relations for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today we discuss the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which held a meeting on the 17th of September, partly in Dushanbe and partly online. The SCO or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was set up in June 2001 in Shanghai by the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikstan and Uzbekistan. You can see that all of them, apart from China, are all republics of the former Soviet Union. So this was an initiative by China to keep a friendly attitude towards the former republics of the Soviet Union and Russia also joined. Subsequently, India and Pakistan joined in 2017 and Iran in 2021, that is this year of this conference. So what's began as a group of former republics of the Soviet Union and China became a larger group and a diverse group when India and Pakistan and Iran joined. But as it happened, the particular group now looks like all the neighboring countries of Afghanistan, which is very much in the news. So even though this meeting was just an annual meeting of the SCO, it assumed a certain importance because this was the first time that a group of neighboring countries of Afghanistan were meeting after the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban. In fact, I spoke to you the other day about BRICS. BRICS also with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa also had interest in Afghanistan. And there were some statements in BRICS which created an atmosphere of consensus among those countries. So here again, the meeting basically focused on Afghanistan. These annual meetings of the SCO normally discusses all political issues and also hold exercises, military exercises together in order to ensure certain security. Of course the contradiction is that both India and Pakistan are there and therefore these exercises are held separately, never India and Pakistan joining in. But more importantly, this has become now in the context of Afghanistan, a group of countries who are all interested in Afghanistan. China has assumed the leader of this group right from the beginning. And even earlier, soon after the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan, some meetings were held at the ministerial level where our external affairs minister also participated. The Prime Minister of India addressed the SCO meeting from Delhi while our external affairs minister traveled to Lushanbe where some of the meetings were held and he was also able to meet the foreign minister of China. So these days of the pandemic, the opportunities for bilateral meetings are very few and most of these were taking place online. But now because of a slight change in the situation, the pandemic situation, more meetings are being held in person, like the next meeting of the Quad is going to be in Washington in person. So this was an intermediate stage where it was held partly online and partly offline. So apart from the Prime Minister addressing the session, the foreign minister or external affairs minister was also there and he had the chance to talk to his counterparts. So this was probably the first time that the Prime Minister was addressing the question of Afghanistan in a public forum. Therefore, he spoke extensively on the situation in Afghanistan. Though the group is composed of countries which have different shades of opinion on Afghanistan, from the statements one could see that there was a certain agreement on some fundamental issues. All the countries were of course not on the same page on their approach to Taliban, but all of them had a major stake in the future of Afghanistan. In fact, the Taliban returned to power of US war on terror which lasted 20 years. It was a shock to all of them. Because Pakistan, China and Russia were supportive of the new dispensation in Afghanistan, but others had several conditions for recognizing the new government. We were concerned about the re-emergence of terrorism in Afghanistan and the possibility of an economic collapse, necessitating massive humanitarian assistance. So the indications of the Taliban that they would follow the same fundamentalist and medieval policies based on Sharia law was a matter of concern for all of them, except of course Pakistan. There was a concern, convergence of opinion and the differences were not so obvious. So immediate concern now is not the withdrawal of US troops and the chaos that followed, but how to deal with this new government. The recognition was of course very much there. Pakistan, China and Iran already maintained their missions in Kabul, but they have not done any recognition, but others are still waiting, even the neighboring countries. Therefore, fundamentally, there are differences within the group. But on the whole, SEO provided an opportunity for them to identify various areas in which there was convergence. Prime Minister Nareeshan Maudi was very frank and open about the situation in Afghanistan. He said that the political change in Afghanistan did not lead to an inclusive system and the process was not conducted through negotiation. He also said that the neighbors of Afghanistan would be seriously impacted by the developments in that country. He said, the first issue and quoting, the first issue is that the change of authority in Afghanistan was not inclusive. And this happened without negotiation. This raises questions on the prospects of recognition of the new system. Representation of all sections of Afghanistan, including women and the minorities is important. And that is why it is necessary that the global community should think carefully and collectively while deciding on the legitimacy of the new political system in Afghanistan. So he expressed India's support for the central role of the United Nations in the deliberation regarding the current system in Afghanistan. So it was very clear that India had several conditions before it is possible for India to think of recognition. As we have discussed earlier, the whole policy of India is now a wait and see policy in Afghanistan. The Pakistan Prime Minister, of course, who considers to have won this war, because at the end of the war, it was Pakistan which directed the operations in Panshiv. And the ISI chief was in Kabul when the composition of the new Taliban government was announced. So the first point that Imran Khan was made was that Afghanistan could not be controlled from the outside, what he means is United States or India. And that Islamabad will continue to support the war-torn neighboring country, even as he heard the Taliban to fulfill the promises they have made. So at least for the sake of form, he had to say that they have to fulfill their promises. He highlighted the need to mobilize international support for an immediate humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan, which is now ruled by the Taliban. And here again I'm quoting Imran Khan. He said, we must remember that the Afghan government is primarily dependent on foreign aid. But the Taliban must fulfill the promises they have made. Pakistan has a vital interest in peaceful and stable Afghanistan and will continue to lend its support. He spoke as the winner in Afghanistan, having helped the Taliban during the war of the US and shaped the new government with the Pakistan spy network, having key positions in the Taliban government, as we discussed earlier. The Interior Minister is the head of the Hakanee network, which is nothing but an agency of the Pakistani intelligence. Of course, the Chinese statement was also very interesting. China's President Li Jinping, who also spoke online, called on the Taliban government to adopt prudent and moderate policies, the work of us. Prudent and moderate policies, not a very severe criticism. And said its neighbors should encourage Kabul to do so. So he put the honest on the neighbors to make sure that Taliban is able to follow a moderate and prudent policy. In other words, the neighbors should not provoke Taliban into doing anything else. And Beijing has stepped up its diplomacy with countries in the region, including Russia, Pakistan, and Iran. He, as the members of the President of China, as the members of the SCO, to encourage Afghanistan to put in place a broad-based and inclusive political framework, adopt prudent and moderate domestic policies. And foreign policy, resolutely fight all forms of terrorism, live in amity with its neighbors, and truly embark on a path of peace, stability, and development. So it was a very sympathetic statement. He said the country faced many daunting challenges, and it needs the support and assistance of the international community. As he called on SCO members to step up coordination, make full use of the platforms such as the SCO Afghanistan Contact Group, and facilitate a small transition. So China's happiness over the recent events was very clear in his statement. But something more significant has happened in Dushanbe as far as Iran, as far as Chinese foreign policy is concerned. He called a separate meeting, what he called an informal meeting with Russia, Pakistan, and Iran. So assuming that these are the four countries who are going to work with Taliban, he had a meeting. And Mr. Wang Yi, the four, he said the four countries had a role to play as important neighbors of Afghanistan and influential countries in the region. So within SCO itself, he made a categorization. As these four countries are important neighbors and influential in the region, while others like India and the Central Asian Republics could not have such a necessary role. It is necessary for us four countries strengthen communication and coordination, make unanimous voices, exert positive influence, and play a constructive role in the smooth transition of the situation in Afghanistan. So they are taking on the responsibility, China, Russia, Pakistan, and Iran. And then he outlined a five point proposal for the four countries to follow, including urging the US to learn lessons from the past. Working to tackle spillover security risks and getting the new Taliban regime to make a clean break with terrorist forces and providing assistance to the war. Then he said, regional countries have three main expectations for the new Afghan government, inclusiveness, counter terrorism, and good neighborhoods. I think that China is ready to step up coordination with Russia, Pakistan, Iran, and the other countries in the region to play a constructive role in preventing chaos, maintaining stability, combating terrorism and violence, realizing peace and reconstruction of Afghanistan, and ultimately achieving lasting peace in the region. So this is a very significant statement and a significant position that China has taken. So, briefly, what happened was that certain basic points there was convergence. For example, one point that everyone remained was that the Taliban must have a break with terrorism. But that is something which even China or Pakistan cannot endorse, even though they may indirectly support terrorist activities on the floor, will not insist that they should give up terrorism altogether. It is difficult for them, some of them are United Nations recognized the terrorists who are in the cabinet. But at least verbally, they all talked about elimination of terrorism. They all talked about inclusiveness of the new government. And they all talked about the need for the international community to support Afghanistan, because a very huge humanitarian crisis is looming large in Afghanistan. And as you know, there has been a pledging conference of the United Nations, and many countries play support, regardless of the situation, regardless of the recognition. But at the same time, the Secretary General is in Andalama, because what does he do with this money? Who does he give it to? He cannot give it to the Taliban. So it has to find agencies, normally NGOs, humanitarian organizations to go into Afghanistan, and their security has to be guaranteed. So though there is money available with the United Nations being pledged by many countries, even including India, dispensation of this humanitarian assistance is a problem. And so the SEO and underlying this, that whether we like this government or not, whether we recognize the government or not, it is necessary to have humanitarian assistance for the country. But the very significant difference, very significant difference in this case was that Pakistan, China and Iran are much more supportive of the Taliban. Theirs are not conditionalities. Theirs are only requests to Taliban. While in the case of India, it's a very specific demand. And we have said clearly that, you know, a decision on recognition can be taken by the international community, only after we see change in Taliban's attitude. There is also assurance that the government will be, the cabinet will be expanded, and they will include other elements. But the situation, Kabul, a deteriorated, in fact today there was a bombing by ISK, which are the bigger bombing earlier, built about 180 people including some 19 or 20 US soldiers. There was a smaller bomb explosion outside the airport, killing some populace and people. And there are reports that women are still being harassed. The new policy has been declared that women need not go to work for the time being, and they need not go to the policy. So there is no change at all, you can see in the Taliban's attitude. And this makes it even more difficult for other countries to come to terms and to provide assistance. So now the whole situation is moving to the United Nations. And the General Assembly will start soon. And also the Quad will have a meeting phase phase. And our Prime Minister is having a bilateral meeting with President Biden. And so this week, 24, 25th etc. will be very significant. And the General Assembly on the 25th after having had a meeting with President Biden. So this is a very significant week where we have to keep a watch on what happens in the United Nations and also what happens on the ground. The reports from the ground are not at all good and therefore considerable concern. But what can the United Nations do is a big question mark. They can engage in humanitarian systems, but there is no way the United Nations Security Council can take any action, either for or against the Taliban. So the SEO meet was helpful in identifying some common elements in which all of them could agree. But the division was also very sharp. And so SEO as an organization will not be able to do much just as BRICS as an organization would not do much in the context of it. But I was just thinking if there was no Afghanistan crisis, what SEO would have done? They would have generally talked about other issues as well. So now there is a question of the utility of these groupings. Because there are so many groupings of so many countries, same in other group. And you also heard about the Hocus, the new group or alliance which have been formed between the United States, UK and Australia. Which has created considerable commotion in western countries, particularly France. So when you already have a quad, why do you go and create another alliance? This may be because India and Japan have not been so committed as an alliance for their own foreign policy objectives. And therefore United States felt that they need a pure military alliance in their Indo-Pacific region. And so they picked UK and Australia and made a group called Hocus, KU, KUS, Australia, UK, US. And France is very upset about it because one of the purposes of Hocus is to give Australia the technology from the United States for nuclear propelled submarines, not nuclear submarines. Nuclear submarines mean submarines with nuclear weapons inside it. That technology in the United States is not nuclear. Even on nuclear propelled submarines, it has been transferred only to the UK. So the specific purpose of this new group is being explained that this is to enable Australia to build nuclear propelled submarines in a big way. Because their relations with China has deteriorated and the threat in the Indian Ocean region is becoming dangerous. So Australia, which is quite friendly to China, has changed its position and formed this. But the problem with France is something different. France has a very strong connection with Australia for manufacturing usual diesel, electric submarines. A huge project, billions of dollars. And this Hocus arrangement will in fact endanger that because Australia will now be moving on to nuclear propelled submarines. So France has recorded ambassadors from UK and USA making very strong statements. And even the Quad countries like us are also concerned as to what this is. Why is it that they're creating more groups? So the stages come when people will look at all these various groups. And what some of these groups are set up for specific purposes and they become redundant and still they continue. So if you look at these many groups operating, you will find that there is so much of duplication. There is so much of differences. They are not united entirely. And whether it is worthwhile having these groups which do not have a common cause to fight off. So these questions have arisen as a result of these two meetings, BRICS and SCO, as well as the emergence of Hocus. We will deal with Quad and Hocus etc. in the next week because there will be further developments in this regard. Thank you very much.