 Hello and welcome to Mapping Fortlines. We have with us today Ambassador Bhadrakumar and we will discuss what is the ramifications of the fallout, if you will, of the Xi Jinping visit to Russia and what did Putin and Xi Jinping discuss. Why is it that a lot of people in the West are deeply worried about it and thinking that this could be a historical moment in which certain different alignments will emerge in the world. Thank you Praveer, you've come straight to the point. This is the crux of the matter that to go back a little back, that the American reading of the Russian situation has been deeply flawed for quite some time and the best evidence of it is the kind of calculations they made about what will happen in Ukraine and what didn't happen and what will happen due to the Western sanctions from hell and what didn't happen finally and it's backlash on Europe. Russians had mentioned all these things as likelihood but the Americans never accepted it. Their intelligence today is deeply flawed. But you know this question I must interject for a second, it's also the Europeans. Yeah but Europeans are inconsequential in this, you know, Europeans are subaltern rule, you know, so you see the damage they can do either way and they ultimately they have, there's a hurt mentality, you know, whatever the Americans are on most major issues and on all major issues and most minor issues, you know, they just go by the American dictate. So that's okay. What I'm trying to say is that, you know, on Xi Jinping's visit, they were viewing this visit through the wrong prism and therefore they're shell shocked as a result of that. They were looking at it in terms of, you know, a kind of a tunnel vision in terms of whether Xi Jinping is going to tell Putin that they will now give arms to Russia, which is never on the cards. The Chinese don't behave like that. And that is a theme that the Americans played up because it also fitted into their narrative that the Russians are facing defeat in Ukraine. And one of the ways that they're facing defeat in Ukraine is because their arms stockpiles draining out and they don't have the capacity to replace them. So they have to be there back against the wall. Whereas those of us who were not tapping into the Western narrative, propaganda narrative, where could see quite clearly Russians made certain mistakes, but they were political mistakes in terms of their assumption that with their shock and awe, the regime in Kiev would run to the negotiating table and they would settle this. This was the Russian calculation. A long drawn out thing they were not prepared for, they were not ready for, they hadn't anticipated. So this is a very serious mistake they made, but Russians have adjusted very quickly to that. But the point is the trajectory of the war clearly shows that, you know, that they have not committed any substance, any significant portion of their military prowess in Ukraine, neither in weaponry nor in terms of manpower. And the mobilization showed that, you know, that they realized that they were not even having a proper infantry to fight a war in Ukraine. So you see, the same thing took place. So therefore, you know, this narrative was that, you know, the Russians desperately wanted Chinese infusion of Chinese weaponry. That's the only way. But I think my assessment is that Russians might do probably well to have drawn technology from China, because Russians had made a very strategic error over the last 10 years in underestimating the significance of drawn technology in warfare, you know, and they are lagging behind for that reason, but they're catching up very fast. So Chinese are ahead, ahead of even the Iranians. So that might help. But you know, when the Americans said this, that is actually for a political reason, for a propagandistic reason, and to pressure China and to humiliate China, that China is, you know, but there's no question of that. In the process, you know, what they failed to recognize is what exactly are the Chinese intentions behind Xi Jinping's visit. Now, you know, I read this morning, in fact, you know, the assessment, the official assessment given by the Foreign Minister and the State Councilor Qi, Qi Gang on the visit. Chinese. Chinese. Now, he says that, you know, that this actually visit is not something which is an impromptu decision. This was a decision taken by the Central Committee of the Communist Party, that, you know, that highest priority should be given. And after this legislative business and all is over, immediately a visit to Russia must be undertaken. And Russia, and this is all part of, you know, the new Chinese approach to diplomacy, global diplomacy and their willingness to come to the center stage and play a role in the shaping up of the world order. And that earlier, Deng Xiaoping's thing of, you know, keeping their head under the parapet, beneath the parapet, that is gone. It's a new China that you're seeing. And that was evident in the Party Congress also. And Xi Jinping's leadership itself is, you know, showing that this is not aberrations or sporadic incidents, sporadic behavior. But there is a pattern behind this, that China is stepping up, you know, that kind of thing. So you see, it is from that point of view that the Americans should have viewed this thing, like the Foreign Minister said. How do you view the Chinese intervention, which is different from Deng Xiaoping, you were saying. So what does the stepping up really mean? So the Chinese behavior basically is this, that, you know, that the outcome of the visit, when you are asking me about the outcome of the visit, the outcome of the visit therefore cannot be analyzed in terms of this, that are they going to give weapons? Is there going to be a military alliance between the two countries? Certainly no. It's not going to happen. Neither side is wanting that, actually. That is not the issue. They are actually thinking, they are having a big picture, which is thinking beyond it, which is why the Russians say that this is not an alliance, but this is bigger than an alliance. When the Russians say this, there is a meaning behind it. That this is almost like, you know, that, almost like, you know, that they are shoulder to shoulder. There are no hierarchical order like in an alliance thing. The second mistake Americans committed is this propagating this, that Russia is becoming a junior partner. It was never China's intention to have any junior partner in their friendships. And nor is it in the Russian DNA to be a new junior partner ever. Their history shows it. You know, they have been a loner, actually, when it comes to, China is also a loner. So, you know, that question never arose, you know. So, you see, we were looking at the visit in that direction, but now what we are getting in the final analysis out of the visit, this three-day visit, and intense talks took place. Several hours they clocked in, they must have clocked, Putin and Xi Jinping must have clocked together something like about eight to nine hours, which you can imagine is a tremendous amount of ground they covered without eight percent, one on one, you know. So, you see, they have worked out a what can you call a big picture on which these two big powers will move. And quintessentially, this will involve pushing back in a way that the Americans could never have imagined their attempts to impose their dictate. In different regions of the world as well. Globally. Globally. Second, a determination that the global strategic balance shall never be allowed to tilt in favor of the Americans. Number two. Number three, a very extensive program to deepen the economic relationship between the two countries so that this sanctions will, China is also preparing for a sanctions regime, I'm sure. It already has sanctions on different areas. Yes, but it can be, you know, stepped up. And, you know, nobody expected this kind of things about freezing reserves and all this kind of thing that the Americans did to Russians. So, you see, the third thing what I was saying is this that, you know, that the life without the West. Life without Western hegemony, particularly American hegemony. Not only hegemony, life without the West in the sense, even if it comes to that, like, you know, China will probably face the same thing that the Russians are facing, which is that without that market and without trade, investment ties and so on. Already, you can see that, you know, that the German foreign minister hurried to Tokyo twice in the past one year and with the with the determination to line up new supply chains. So, they are anticipating the inevitability of decoupling from China. You know, as you know, Germans have their number one partner is China, you know, and they have tremendous thousands of enterprises working in China. And all the entire automobile industry, which is the locomotive of German economy, is there in a big way. Roaring successes there, you know, and now they are already pulling back on that. The Chinese understand this. So, you see, the components here, which are very interesting is that in a kind of extreme stress, the things which are important for the Chinese is number one energy supplies. And if there is a blockade coming in the Malacca Street, and if supplies cannot come from the Middle East, their economy can come to a halt. That is the most important thing. And therefore, a huge build up of the energy ties with Russia. Yes, Siberia, power pipeline one, power of Siberia one, two and also the Mongolia line. And the Mongolia's power of Siberia two. No, there is another Mongolia line also. Yeah, but other thing is the Sakhalin oil fields also being coupled to the power of Siberia. So, you see the strategy there is that, you know, that these pipelines will not be running through territories which are under the control or under the influence of the Americans in any way. And so, they strengthen the relationship with Mongolia, Russia and China, both, you know. And the Mongolians have agreed to play ball on this. So, these are the variables in the situation. They have done that. So, energy thing, if the crunch time comes, the Chinese can access. I have the statistics with me, I do not waste time on that. But, you know, I can show it that, you know, that they can pull on with the Russian thing. As far as the Russians are concerned, these huge supplies which are going to Europe, which are money spinning, the Chinese, they are switching now very rapidly towards the Asian region. So, they can turn their back on the Europeans also. Also getting from Central Asia also. Now, the second one, Praveer, which is, you know, even more striking, we know very well that, you know, like, you know, Burnat Shah has said that an army doesn't, you know, fight on its stomach, you know. So, you see, the thing is, the food security is a very important aspect. Army fights on its stomach. Sorry, army fights. Yeah. So, the food security thing is very important for the Chinese, because they are net importers of food. They are also exporting. They are also exporting vegetables, fruits, fish, etc. But, you know, they need soya. For instance, you know, this visit of Lula is primarily for that. China is already preparing for these eventualities. So, if soya bean doesn't come from the United States, they use soya cakes for animal feed. And that is very important. Now, with this rising income, you know, over $12,000 per capita income in China, like in all societies, they become more meat eating. Meat consumption is gone. Yeah, in the dietary habits. And in China, the arable land is very little. Relatively, yeah. And optimally, they have already exploited the arable land. So, an appreciable increase in the production is not possible. Of course, the other part is there that the population has become, has stabilized. It's not increasing. So, they can plan a little with a greater amount of certainty, their food situation. But look at Russia. The Russia's thing is that, you know, with this thermofrost, you know, melting with the climate change and so on. We cannot imagine if you ever travel to Vladivostok from Moscow in the Trans-Siberian train, you will understand this, that, you know, it's a granary of the world. Russian production is galloping. And it is now already the number one exporter of food grains in the world. Also fertilizers. Yes, fertilizers. But, you know, in the Russia, in the Chinese context, what is important is actually this food grains coming from Russia. So, in energy security, food security. These are two absolutely critical things. Then from the Chinese side, you know, that they have actually the Russians have already put together a framework for investment projects, which are totally worth about $165 billion investment by China possible, you know. Now, you see, what this implies is that, you know, that for China, if there is a problem with West Europe, if there is a problem with the United States as it is already happening, you know, that there is a vacation taking place from there. There is a kind of retracement taking place from there. So, Russia can absorb. And Russia can also absorb in a different way in the sense that, you know, not many people in India, we don't understand it, that, thank the one of the Soviet legacies is the scientific culture there, you know. Not only the absorption capacity, but even in innovation. And it's a kind of thing like, you know, if you open up the restrictions even more, it can be a very creative thing. You know, that's an interesting, I'll just add a little details on this. What you said is that the number of engineers Russia produces with a much smaller population to the United States is the same as the United States, if not more. So, effectively, they have the same science technology output from the institutions that the US does. Of course, the US imports a lot from outside as well, which Russia does not at the moment. You see the, so one of the things, let me come to the point, one of the things, one of the third thing that was discussed in great detail from what I see reading the documents carefully between the lines is to improve the logistics for Chinese investments in Russia. And the Chinese came with specific points. You can call them complaints, you can call them grievances, you can call them, you know, highlighting the deficiencies, what are the next, yeah, but it is not accusations or anything. It is for a kind of a transparent exchange between the two countries to clear up, you know, all kinds of to remove cobwebs from the past and to have a kind of an openness between the two sides that they can work together openly. So logistics, you know, for instance, you know, is a very major thing for China. And they have mentioned a number of things also, which I find that in the writings in the Chinese writings also, like customs clearances, Russian side are very bureaucratic. And Chinese side, you know, which is globalized much more, they do it very, very fast, you know, the number of ships which come to a port and are cleared is absolutely incredible, the rate at which they're doing. But the Russians are very paranoid about it, between these containers is there going to be some spy, you know, this kind of thing. So you see the streamlining of all logistics, border controls, removal, easing the border controls and all that kind of thing. There is a third thing that is expected to hasten Chinese investments. Because you see, you must see that the Chinese will only put money where the mouth is. And therefore, you know, it's very important. Now, certain industries have, they have already come in a big way, like automobile industry, like even the Mercedes plant is being retooled in Russia, you know, for bringing the Chinese cars, you know, so this kind of thing. So this is the third thing. And one major thing that is that has happened on this front, a related front, is that China has seems to have assured the Russians promised that they will take part in the development of the northern sea route. Now, the northern sea route is on the map, if you look at it, northern sea route, again, climate change can make it better and better. Much more navigable if the ice melts as it is partially needed. Presently, they need to make icebreakers. And icebreakers is a very expensive thing. Russians have made, if I remember correctly, they have made some six icebreakers so far. But Chinese are willing to put their money into it now. And the China wants it also because again, this Malacca dilemma is avoided because this northern sea route is completely Russian land, Russian territory. Yes, entirely. Entirely Russian territory. And completely the western part. When it comes to the western part, the western part also the thing is under international law, they have a right of passage. But the point is that, you know, others will be watching you. That's all. They are determined that the Ukraine experience has shown that the majority of countries have refused to line up with the west. That is correct. And I have written this also just yesterday, the thing is, the one cardinal difference with the bipolar world of the Cold War era is that compared with that, the one major difference today is the majority, this majority of countries will play a very key role in world politics in the period to come. Once unipolarity is dismantled completely, numbers will matter. And therefore, that is the reason why the Americans are panicking and are trying to replace the United Nations system with NATO on the security side. So, you see, the big... This is the so-called rule-based order. Yes. Where they decide the rules. They decide the rules. They cannot any more decide the rules. So, they are peeling off and putting up an alternate platform. So, you see, the Russia and China are determined to align with the rest of the world. And this is what I keep on telling here also in India that India must pay heed here because this is the right side of history, you know, that we can expect. And we should not miss it. It's very important because this will also include countries like Saudi Arabia, ranging from Saudi Arabia to Brazil to South Africa to Turkey. You know, this is the whole range of countries. Very, very varied countries with varied political systems, varied national concerns, varied national priorities, varied developmental plans, but all united in this that, you know, that they are heaving a sigh of relief, that there is no one controlling them, dictating to them, interfering in their internal affairs, this and that. So, you see, the political part that the visit has conveyed is this, that it is a kind of a, you have heard about national liberation moments. It's a kind of a, that kind of an accelerating thing, you know, which is what they are working on to liberate and completely. So, if it is, they are willing to work with the United Nations system, but it must be that big and small countries all must be equal in that system, that you cannot do this kind of thing. No, the system is being manipulated by the Americans to serve its limited purposes and it has come to this that the international criminal court has issued a warrant without even a referral from the United Nations, which is mandatory, you know. Not really. ICC is a separate body than the International Court of Justice. No. I see J requires a referral, not ICC. No, no. The prosecutor, this is a, this is a completely the doing of a prosecutor. Exactly. Yeah. The prosecutor of the ICC. Now, that prosecutor has not got any referral from anybody. That is right. Has not got any referral from anybody. And if you go back to Afghanistan, that African lady who was the prosecutor, that is why they had removed and put a Europe in there, you know, that lady wanted to, in fact, you know, hold a preliminary investigation and she was threatened by the Americans. The American war crimes in Afghanistan. That was what she was, she had started investigation. Anyway, it's a digression. So, you see, this is the kind of world order that they have decided on. My assessment is that I am optimistic because if you take China today, it exceeds the combined manufacturing capacity of United States and Europe. And if you take Russia, it is by far the number one nuclear power today, larger than the United States. Not only in terms of the quantity, but also in terms of the quality of weaponry, thermonuclear age, you know, these things matter, hypersonic missiles and so on. And now I am saying that it is not, that relationship is not devoid of the military part, which is evident from the fact that the Chinese Defense Minister accompanied Xi Jinping and the Russian Defense Minister was part of the delegation. We really don't even know whether they met separately. And, you know, in fact, the Russian-Chinese transactions, the final point, is now beyond the purview of the Americans. Their payment mechanism is in local currencies and there is no way that what happening between the two big powers can be monitored by the Americans in any way within their available instrumentalities at their disposal. Those are very important points. And of course, we will have to spend some more days discussing the different implications of all that you have said. But I think the takeaway for our audience, our viewers, is that there is a, this is a significant moment in history when the correlation of forces have changed and changed very rapidly. What it is opening up the world to is from the days of the Cold War, which had two sides fighting also about decolonization. That was our big battle. So non-alignment was not just non-alignment, it was also decolonization. But today those decolonized powers are also players in the world. And therefore, when you talk about Africa, when you talk about Southeast Asia, when you talk, of course, South Asia, but also about Latin America. In fact, in news click, when we discuss international issues, we bring that out that what you see as the G7 essentially are settler colonial and ex-colonial powers. This is what the G7 really is. And this is the era which is ending. And that's why I also expect that Africa will be much more important in the future. Let's not forget, it is a very large continent. It is a huge amount of mineral and other resources. And they have yet to play their part in world history as an equal. And I think all those things are likely to change, may not be in our lifetime, but certainly in this century, all these are going to change. And I think this therefore marks a very important point in history, just as let's face it, the fall of Soviet Union did. So this is a similar point where the American hegemony is now seems to be weakening and there is a shift in global politics. Of course, this is not going to happen without blood, tears and violence. But nevertheless, it seems that this path is such that it is difficult to stop this, this changes from taking place. With this, we have to wind up our show. Thank you for being with us. And we hope to have you again. Because where we stop today, we can continue and also take this much further afield. Thank you.