 RBA handing down its first interest rate decision of 2017, the first since U.S. President Donald Trump has taken office. So plenty for the board to be digesting as we speak. Let's go to the RBA headquarters. Carson Scott, Mark Bailey from FIG, to walk us through what to expect. Carson. Nadine, you say finishing touches. I'm probably of the mind to say they were quaffing their lunch in the last few moments, not putting the finishing touches. Mark Bailey, that decision has been done and dusted as of earlier this morning. So the niceties of it will be known very, very soon. 230 will be live on it. You had a veritable shopping list though of reasons why they should go, but why are they hanging back and cutting? Look, I don't think they're going to cut, but I think the bias is certainly towards easing. I mean, if we deal with facts rather than the alternative facts that Trump loves to deal with, you see the GDP print was weaker than expected. CPI was weaker than expected. Retail sales both November and December were weaker than expected. You've got the higher currency as well, obviously on the back of higher commodities. And also you've got banks increasing mainly fixed, but investor loans out of cycle as well. So that is all kind of adding up to the bank may introduce an easing bias over the next few months. Probably not today, but I still think the next move is down rather than up from the RBA. And when are we having to brace for that? I mean, realistically, they'll downgrade probably their growth forecast because of that CPI weakness in the September quarter you flagged. It's a Friday flagging option for them in the statement of monetary policy. So when do they prepare the way for easing? Look, I think you're looking into the second quarter of this year, maybe third quarter. So June and August, maybe or May, maybe even May. But I think you're right. In terms of the sum that we'll get on Friday, I think there will be a downgrade in terms of some of the forecast. It'd be also interesting to see if there's a comment on inflation today. It has been talking about that inflation has been low of recent, but we're still expecting to get back the trend and that may may actually change. What about the trade weighted basket on the Australian dollar? Now, looking at that and particularly against currencies like the Yuan, you know, when you see those specific moves outside of the greenback, do you get a sense that we are not importing inflation, even care of China? That's not seemingly occurring. I don't think we're importing inflation, especially where the currency is at the moment. There's no real chance of that. And so, you know, in terms of the cost pressures, you're not seeing anything coming through in the wages side of things. That is very, very weak as well. So there's no pressure on that side. And I don't think where the exchange rate is at the moment, you're going to see any pressure coming through for me. A lot of those measures, things even like the retail sales print without getting kind of panicky. But, you know, the new normal would be we're not going through the department store turnstiles like we used to. A lot of it's online. It's not captured by the data. We're kind of scrambling for our signposts for signals that frankly, aren't being picked up by the conventional data analytics. Yeah, I mean, that's always a possibility now as the economy has changed, changed and moved to more digital and online. Are we capturing all that? But at the end of the day, we have to deal with the facts that are presented with us very similar to China. And, you know, the best indicators that we do have in terms of retail sales and CPI. And we can always debate whether it is capturing everything it should do. Statement of monetary policy is one thing, but also where the settings are from a macroprudential view, they could be set for review what in about a month's time or run about that time frame in terms of APRA's 2017 outlook. Will they be instructed on discussion with the Reserve Bank to maybe move lower on investor loans, so say a 7% line in the sand for a bank lending book to investors? Yeah, I'm not sure whether they're going to be instructed, but obviously there should be some conversation between the two institutions. In terms of, you know, their guidelines going forward, I think they're going to want to keep it very conservative as it's more global regulatory background in terms of Bail 3 and then Bail 4. So I think, you know, there's going to be a bit of caution there. And in terms of the investor loans, we've seen that across the curbing, whichever area you want to look at, whether it's foreign investors or whether it's domestic investor only loans, everything has been tightened up in that side. The example of Vancouver is arguably instructive. Here we have an economy that's pegged to commodities, much like Carone. There you have a foreign investor tax on housing or 15% that's really taking the wind out of the sails. Can you foresee that that type of an additional impost comes into play here? Would that be perhaps another cushion, another insurance policy against overheating? It would be, but can I see that happening in Australia? Probably not. You know, I think the macro potential regulations that they put in place in terms of trying to keep the heat down on the investor side of things is working. And you've seen that in terms of the house price figures that are coming through in terms of the growth bond markets pricing in, you know, what scenario for Australia? You talked about the banks moving out of cycle. Is that essentially the trajectory that they are keying off locally? And what does that spell more broadly for equities in that search for yield the growth? Yeah, I mean, if you look at the bond market, what's actually being priced in there, it is slightly lower in the next six months, but not not a fully full priced in and then towards the back end of this year in 2018, they're expecting rate hikes to come through in terms of the equity market, what you're seeing as you continually is at the moment, it's kind of very uncertain, unsure, you know, Trump's policies and what's happening in there and that's flowing through in some US equity volatility. And again, you know, making sure that people's asset classes are set and their portfolio mixes are set, maybe a bit more defensively than they have been historically because of that uncertainty and extra volatility is likely to come through this year. And it's interesting that Macquarie, in light of all of that is neutral on banks, the best it says West back in the NAB, if you want some upside, but you know, as you've seen from even yesterday, at the end of that bad, the bottom of the bad debt cycle is probably of the impaired loans rather as probably past us now, is it not? Yeah, look, I mean, the NAB results were fairly soft, I think, in terms of overall, but it's specifically, I always look at the bad debts and bad loans, they actually fell by 23%. So I think it was around about 164 million. So that was actually a pretty good figure in terms of the overall health of the economy as the bank to see it in terms of, you know, potential defaults and arrears on mortgages and also on their corporate loan book as well. So maybe we haven't quite seen, we're getting close to the bottom, absolutely, but I don't maybe maybe we still got a few more quarters of good times ahead of us. And the fact that the banks haven't held on to gains today, they haven't used that as some kind of a springboard to the next level, is telling us it not just in terms of a broader wealth effect view on where Australian investors are going to derive their profits from. Yeah, I mean, the banking sector has had a good run of late and obviously it's pulled back, you know, there's probably a bit of understanding what's going to happen in the states with the Dodd-Frank and how that's going to impact more broadly globally. But, you know, in terms of investors chasing yield, it's a very difficult dilemma because there's a lot of volatility out there. And, you know, not talking my own book, but I would say that bonds should be a bigger part of their portfolio. Mark, we will reconvene in a month's time for how many thanks for sure. Then we have the decision is pending. The rain is falling. We are for now relatively dry. We're joining the homeless undercover today. It's a telling kind of juxtaposition to Dean with that building there, the austerity and the relative warmth and sucker that they find upstairs in their subsidised tea rooms. And down here where you've got the waves, the strays and the unmentionables, essentially, trying to find some warmth in this important day for markets. Talk to you soon.