 أسعد الله ومساقكم شكرا لكم على نظمامكم إلينا في هذا المؤتمر الصحفي الثاني الذي يحتث في اليوم الأول من هذه القمة أرجو أن تكونوا أكثر Welcome to Mr. Ilvez C presidents of the European Commission 2014 and a member of the global agenda council to talk about the european perspective on the outlook هو here by pulling over 1,700 people from our community that the global agenda is much more shaped by global geopolitical situation which is really strained this year. We've seen it in events in East Asia, in Ukraine, in Russia of course, and the Middle East as well. And what is really new here is a much more complexity and volatility in the situation. والأشياء الأخرى التي يقوم بها على الأجنب والذين يقوم بها على أجنب المساعدة من أجنبنا are inequality and the risk of jobless growth. These are the two major trends and risks that our community sees on the agenda for the next 12 to 18 months. What is really interesting here is that these socio-economic trends are creating a danger cycle. The lack of employment and stagnant wages are contributing to rising inequality as well as holding back consumer spending and ultimately growth, which creates more problems on the road for many of the countries that are faced with this. It's really a truly global phenomenon which is so interconnected and while we're seeing maybe a better economic integration across the world, there's much more fragmentation on a political level, which in turn creates also a very, very vicious cycle and much more independence across the world, but also much bigger risks because no one's in charge and there's no leadership, which leads me to the third most important trend this year, which is the lack of global leadership. This was again a major, major issue and was actually the fastest rising issue in this year's report. It's jumped from number 7 last year to number 3 this year. So a significant jump in terms of what matters to people in our community and what they see as the major issues going forward. It's also one of the issues that I think connects so many of the other trends from inequality, all the economic trends, but also geopolitical ones, but also health as we've seen with the recent Ebola crisis. This lack of leadership and global leadership is a real problem. So another interesting dimension maybe in the top 10 is the list related to the environmental issues. We have a large number of issues actually or trends that we think matter on the environmental agenda. One is the increased water stress, particularly for this region, obviously a key issue. The other ones relate to the increasing occurrence of severe weather events, an issue that's much more prominent now around the world, but particularly in Asia. And also the rising pollution in the developing world, again something very prominent in Asia particularly. And what is also new this year is the feature of health. We've never had health featured in our top 10 trends and this is the first year we have mentions of the growing importance of health in the economy. And with some of the pandemics that we've seen recently from the Ebola crisis to others rising on the agenda is clearly very timely to have that feature in the report. And this brings me also to today in this event that we're here. These are all going to be the basis for discussions amongst our 1,000 participants who will join us to really try and understand some of the dimensions and complexities of these issues, but also to try to come up with innovative ideas and solutions which can move the dial on some of these issues as we've seen in the past this network has already done. Thank you. It's a dark prognosis, but let's hear about some of the solutions. President Ilves, you're the head of one of the most tech-savvy countries in the world. Give us your views on how technology can be leveraged to address some of the challenges we're looking at here. Okay. Before I talk about the solutions, I think one of the paradoxes we're in is that we're actually dealing once again with 19th-century problems with, say, the rise of China with the metastasization of al-Qaeda into ISIS. I mean, these are all really 19th-century problems. And then, of course, the other way we're looking, which is I hope forward, is that at the rate of technological growth today is so great that there's a whole wealth of possibilities. I mean, what I think we are seeing, to put it in a nutshell, is that those of you who know what Moore's Law is, that every one-and-a-half years the power of computing per unit price doubles. And if you recall the old story about how chess was created and the Shah asked the creator of chess how much do you want, and he said, oh, a grain on the first square, two grains on the second and four on the third, and the Shah thought, oh, it's no problem. Except by the time they got to the 32nd, would have gotten to the 32nd square, that would have included all of the rice in the world. Now, the same thing is happening in technology. I spoke recently before the European Parliament, a small committee, and I said, by the time you people are running for election again in four-and-a-half years, computers will be eight times faster for the same price. Think about that. So what we can see now, this enormous explosion of the power of computing in ways that no one could have predicted before. The positive side of this, in terms of say even healthcare, being able to track the genome, being able to track major medical issues. We've already seen Google be a better predictor of the flu than any other source, any medical source. The power of data and data processing, more importantly, is going to allow us to do things we have never been able to do to make life better than ever before. But even this has a downside, because 20 years ago, Jeremy Rifkin wrote a book called The End of Work in which he predicted that people will be losing their jobs because of computers and automatization. But I think he wrote the book 20 years too early because at that time computers were not that powerful. This year, Andrew McAfee, who was actually featured in this global agenda book himself, published a new book basically saying the same thing. And this time it's looking like it's true, which is that the way technology, especially with underwater laws advancing in 10 years, maybe we won't need taxi drivers anymore. And Mercedes or Mercedes is already producing a driverless truck that will completely revolutionize the way we drive. Now, if you think about what that means, that there will be a huge hollowing out of jobs. There will be high-tech jobs and then there will be people who work figuratively in McDonald's because no computer can produce a big Mac. But in between, more and more jobs with this dramatic increase in computing power will be better performed often than by human beings. And so this will lead to an even greater degree of income inequality, which then I guess leads me to say that what we need to do is to really rethink our approach to education. There will be no jobs in the future that will not be impacted by the latest in high technology, especially in computing. If we do not really think more about what is in the US is called the STEM subject, Science, Technology, Engineering and Math and making that a greater part of our curricula, we will find life in the future really very, very binary. Either you know something about technology and can deal with it or you do not, in which case you will be left out or you will have only low-paying jobs. I mean, that's a bleak vision but I think that's something we can avoid if we start paying attention now to the right kind of education which is in many ways quite different from what we have been used to in the past. Mr. Barosa, I can think of few people better qualified for a perspective from Europe on the trends and challenges outlined in the outlook on the global agenda. Thank you. First of all, let me say it's great to be here in Dubai and have this opportunity to have three days to think to think and to interact with very, very bright people. In fact, when you look at the trends that have been presented some of them very worrying, we see that this is happening in Europe but indeed, some of those problems are common to the rest of the world namely the two trends that have been signaled so deepening income inequality and persistent jobless growth and of course this is having today a very negative impact in Europe. Why? Because it has been in fact one of the causes for what is perceived as the weakening of representative democracy, the intensifying nationalism including sometimes xenophobic movements and this is of course a matter of concern. So my first point is the following. While in Europe the economy is probably going to improve the politics may become more difficult. We have basically solved I think the issue of stability so we are much better now than during the financial crisis but because of the relatively low growth and because of perception of inequality it will not be a surprise if while economic problems get smaller the political problems get bigger it can appear as a paradox but it is not a paradox. So we are in a situation of transition where in fact the perception of lack of leadership is increasing why? Because governments are seen no longer able to solve the problems the so-called man of the street the common citizen feel but while the regional or the international organizations are not yet ready to do it and this is in fact one of the concerns we have also globally because indeed some of those global problems we are facing from international terrorism to climate change it is quite obvious that a national government on its own cannot solve them but we are not yet in a situation where the global community has the instruments to solve those problems so we are to some extent I believe in a transitional phase with a lot of anxiety and this is increasing problems of legitimacy because the problems of legitimacy are linked to the perception of lack of effectiveness a citizen in the streets looks to the situation and says they are not delivering I mean those who have power be it in the governments be it sometimes in the supernatural institutions they are not able to deliver and that's why for instance we are seeing increasing nationalist attitudes xenophobic and immigration movements in fact I contributed to this outlook with an article on migration that does not appear as one of the ten most important trends I will say probably because those who are responding have no problems with freedom of movement but I can tell you many people have problems 5700 people have died in the training recently and we are seeing even in traditionally very open countries like Britain now resistance not only to migration but even to freedom of movement inside the European Union and this is linked with the rise of nationalistic or at least xenophobic or sometimes even let's say parochial forces so this is a matter I think for all those concerned for all those of us that care a sense of fairness and we believe that these basic freedoms including the freedom of movement is important in today's world and this is why I believe the report this outlook in fact gives us a lot of food for thought and I really hope that these three days of reflection will come with some solutions for me the solution is leadership leadership so first of all political choices that are well-informed but also leaders that have the courage to take decisions that sometimes are not popular in the short term before we go to our last panelist I'd just like to mention that we do have a hard finish at half-past we all have to get ready for the opening plenary so start thinking about your questions now I'm just going to turn very briefly now to our final panelist before that Q&A session I was a head of a successful business organization based here in the Gulf what kind of impact are you seeing of these trends outlined in the report sure well I think first of all what is interesting despite the fact that the media headlines tend to be dominated by conflict and geopolitical tensions the 1,000 plus experts across the councils clearly have prioritized socioeconomic issues and deepening income inequality and persistent jobless growth being the top two and turning to the Middle East region and again despite conflict in the region the number one issue highlighted is the persistent youth unemployment it's close to 30% it's been a chronic problem in the region for some decades now but actually combined with the political upheavals and the world economic crisis it's become an acute problem and it's worsening and fundamentally the economic progress is required for the political stability the causes are the same as everywhere including Europe or Africa or other regions that are affected by this issue which are insufficient economic growth the skills and education mismatch and rigid labor markets and I think looking at this problem and the trends overall it's clear why not only such a report but this sort of multi-stakeholder approach is required these are problems that you can't tackle only in government or only in the private sector or only in the academic sphere and that's what is special about the summit on the global agenda and the idea behind the councils is that over a thousand thought leaders will be meeting here in Dubai in 3 days in over 80 different councils and from a broad variety of backgrounds I mean my own council on the Middle East, North Africa region has a former prime minister former minister senior officials from international financial institutions, academics business leaders who get together in an intense environment for 3 days once a year and we also have monthly meetings but this is really the annual meeting to try and come up with innovative ways to not only analyze these challenges but come up with concrete solutions for tackling these challenges speaking from the UAE point of view we're of course honored that to welcome the summit again here and the UAE and particularly here in Dubai you see how openness globalism and economic dynamism is an important solution to many of these challenges particularly looking at the Middle East, North Africa region and of course the UAE has always been proud to be that bridge between the east and the west so from a private sector perspective from here and the region we're very honored to play a part so it's a sort of corporate responsibility a moral responsibility to have the private sector's voice actively heard and helping shape some of the solutions and it's interesting to see from the report also the different confidence level in different institutions and clearly as Mr. Barossa has said there is a challenge a crisis of confidence in leadership and particularly the governments in many parts of the world let's have a quick show of hands before we do Q&A let's try to do two in the remaining seven minutes this gentleman here first can you please give us your name and your affiliation and also make sure that your question is relevant to the outlook if you have specific questions to any speaker they are available throughout the summit thank you my name is Peter Vanham and I'm the director of the summit which are the organizations that you think in the future are best suited to provide that leadership what is the road to get there and when will we get to leadership of those organizations according to the survey it's interesting to see that naturally most popular are non profit that is not should not be a surprise فالإنسانية الحديثة يتحدث فيه الأ quarto شراء والإنسانية يتحدث فيه الأ seventh شراء. حينما في العالم التصريحي في إلسانية أوراق أما يوجد العالم الأوراق أن بإمكانها نؤمن إلسانية أوراق يجب أن نرى مشاكل يضب معدل مشاكل يقوم بكالدان يقوم ب إلساني when it comes to national politicians than to supranational ones. So I believe that we need stronger mechanisms of global governance. And I believe that to reach that level, the regional level is very important. For instance, what we can do at the European level through the European Union or Southeast Asia can do it through ASEAN, African Union, the Gulf Cooperation Council, for instance, Mercosool, and in fact I'm chairing one of the Global Council on these matters now. I think we should do more there because we are not yet ready at least in the global community to let's say a mechanism of global governance even if you have of course the United Nations, this is the base of legitimacy كما رأيتنا, عندما كان هناك فرصة حقيقة، يجب أن يكون لدينا جي 20 لأن جي 8 كانت تعتقدت بشكل كبير، ولكن الناس كانت بشكل كبير، لذلك سنذهب إلى الجي 20 ولكن الأجهزة الارجانية يمكن أن تكون بسيطة لأسفل الأجهزة بشكل كبير وإذن يمكننا أن نفعل أكثر هذه الأسفل مع العمل والأجهزة الأسفل لأنه يجب أن يكون لدينا جيدا أن يكون لدينا أجهزة الأسفل بشكل كبير ونحن نحتاج إلى أكثر مع أجهزة الأسفل والأجهزة الأسفل وإذا كانت هذه المشكلة لدينا today ونحن نتحدث عن هذه الأسفل، أجهزة الأسفل سيكون لدينا أكثر لذا، إمكانت الأجهزة الأسفل بشكل كبير، ولكن في أوروبا أعتقد أنه مهمة ولكن نحتاج إلى تجمع أجهزة الأسفل بشكل كبير، مع أخر أسفل مع أجهزة الأسفل والأجهزة الأسفل ونحن نتفعل سواءنا في أجهزة الأسفل وإمكانت هذه المشكلة وإمكانت أجهزة أسفل وانتما يجب أن يكون لدينا أجهزة أخر أسفل شكرا لك، سأخبركم أكثر من الأسفل يدي هذا الأجهزة الأسفل here شكرا لك، أعطيك أسفل أجهزة أسفل شكرا لك، إفتاعت أسفل كيف أodar أوروبا هل هذه المستخدمة بالنسبة to these infrastructures, is this enough, the right step, and question to Mr. Excellency Mr. Barroso, how is Europe's response to the rise of East Asia as an economic powerhouse, as the report also states. By the way, my name is Shira Al-Feeel from Shinohua News Agency Dubai. Great, thank you. When we talk about Asia more generally, so it's not related to just China, it's really all Asian nations, and we're seeing this as a major issue because they're obviously coming out of many of the developing countries, and they're starting now their growth path, so there is a natural link to their growing middle class and what this means now to the larger growth of their economies. Clearly infrastructure investments are going to be very much needed and they're going to be key to putting them on the right path, but when you look at the responses also when we look at what are the solutions that are needed for bridging this gap in terms of inequality, education is the number one aspect of this, and while education isn't mentioned as one of the top trends, if we look at the responses in terms of solutions, it's almost featured in every single trend that we need much better education and much more substantial investments and funding into education that's fit for the new century, not just from the past, and I think we have a very outdated education system that needs real reform and a new look at not only how technology plays into it, but also how it can really be adapted to the skills that are required on the job and labor market and what this means for how we educate our people. That will be my take on this. Regarding the rise of Asia and how Europe is reacting to it, I think it was your question. We have been reacting to it. In fact, Europe remains the biggest economy in the world, biggest even in the United States and much bigger than China, but of course, the trend is different. The trend is China being the biggest winner of globalization, and that explains why the European Union last year has been investing so much in trade with Asia. In fact, the first agreement of new generation on trade was made with South Korea, and we have now negotiated, we are now given a very big impulse to Japan. We are very close to conclude with Vietnam. We are negotiating our investment agreement with China, so certainly we are perfectly aware of the rise of Asia, which by the way is good for Asia, because many people were able to get out of poverty, in some cases extreme poverty. For instance, what happened in China, it's really inspiring, I think also for other parts of the world, from that point of view, but we believe, at least I believe, that it can be and should be an agreement for the global economy. But that's something that is to be honest controversial. There are people in the developed economies, not only in Europe but in the United States that look at the rise of China and the rise of Asia as a threat. And let's be honest about this. So can we make it a win-win? Can we make it of course good for the countries themselves, but also for global economy, for sustainable growth? I believe we should do everything to make that a very important contribution for sustainable growth. And so far, I think it has been a very important contribution for growth globally. I get the feeling we could go on for hours, but we can't. We have an opening plenary when you need to get your seats and our panel here need to get their seats too. So I'm going to close now. Just to remind you, our panelists are here for the coming three days and will be available for an interview. Just come and see us in the media center if you want to put a request in. Thanks very much for joining us and thank you as well for joining us here today.