 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody and welcome to another edition of the AccessTrader.com weekend update. Hope everybody is having a great start to the weekend. Hope everybody had a great trading week. If you have been watching and following the channel, thank you very much for your viewership. For all you guys who are brand new to the channel, like, share, subscribe, come aboard. We do these video updates Monday through Wednesday and again on the weekend. So hopefully you guys will get and continue to get great value. So thank you very much for spending a few moments with us. So let's talk about it. If you've been watching the weekend updates or just watching the updates in the last week, we knew a couple of big numbers that the bulls needed to reclaim and the bears needed to reclaim. So if you've been watching this update, you know the importance of that 363 level. We talked about it several times. Matter of fact, I recorded a video on Thursday because I didn't have a video on Wednesday talking about there was a couple of areas to watch on the queues. Depending obviously on the jobs number, we'll get to that in a second. There was that 361 level that needed to reclaim and it needed to reclaim back the top of the channel here, the latest interval above 363. The bulls did that. But let's back up. So going into Friday, the market was not in good shape. Just wasn't in good shape. We've been talking about the consumer cyclical names for weeks now, how they've just been getting completely beaten up and you see the Dow just not doing well, the S&P just not doing well, the tech heavy Nasdaq all over the place. Some stocks are strong, most stocks are weak. And the question is what was going to happen with the jobs number. And that was going to be the catalyst for Friday's session. And we knew one way or another we were going to come out of this channel. We talked about the bottom of the range here on the queues. Obviously we talked about the top of the range. The question was, are you going to be prepared for both sides? And this is why we always encourage traders to, yes, set a game plan. Let's have an opinion, have a bias that leads going into the day. But if that bias plays out completely different from your game plan, that's why you need to be prepared on both sides, not just a trivial exercise. And the jobs number came in stronger than expected. We all know the economy still sucks. Remember little Johnny, right? Little Johnny couldn't afford his little cereal, couldn't afford his breakfast, right? So the economy still sucks. The consumer is not spending money, but the jobs number came in hot. Initially, if you look at the, we'll use the queues as a case study here. Initially, right? When you look at the five minute view, the first move on the jobs number, everything got hammered. The queues, the NASDAQ and the S&P went down a little less than 1%. The Dow went down roughly 300 points. And we're like, here we go again. We're going to test the bottom of the range here. And as Chris Berman of ESPN so famously says, this is why we play the game. So the market got slammed. The first rule we always talk about, and this is something we've been equalling for years, you never shorten the hole, which basically means you never short the pre-market or at the open when prices are below the previous days range. Because there's a lot of emotional people saying, just take my stock at any price. Again, I haven't done a personal case study, but if you have time to back test the next two, three, four months, see what the initial reaction to a gap down is, especially in a cycle that is bearish, right? You'll notice, even despite the narrative that's still sell signals, sell driven, there's going to be a time maturity chances or not. Anybody who's shorting pre-market into the hole, anybody shorting the market at the open will at least get their lunch handed to them, at least for a very short interval. Nobody knows what's going to happen towards the end of the day. And that's what happened initially, right? That's what happened initially. All the major indexes started reversing down. Remember that Dow was down nearly 272 points and the Nasdaq was down 1%. And slowly but surely, things started getting better, little by little, right? Not all at once, little by little. And ultimately what happened, if you follow along, ultimately what happened on Friday in case you didn't trade, this was a hell of a turnaround. The Dow went from down 300 to being up 300. The Nasdaq went down from 1% to being up 1.6%. And that was a hell of a rally. And not only that it was a great reversal, the bulls did their job, right? The bulls reclaimed at 363 level. We've been talking about endosium, right? And this is at least the highest close in this formation, still below the 50-day moving average. And we'll talk about that in a second, right? But this is definitely the highest close in this whole formation and they got rejected somewhere around the 50-day EMA, right? Now, the question is, what's more important? The 50-day EMA and 50-day SMA, for me at least, right? For me at least, it's always the SMA because the SMA is above, right? It's above that channel. It's an extra supply zone that the bulls need to reclaim. But they did a great job. They did an initial great job here. And now you can see, you can just see, even if you don't know anything about technical analysis, but at least you can see with your eyeballs that we're very, very close. If the bulls can start compounding their effort Monday and Tuesday, right, and start reclaiming back this 50-day moving average and start building it, then we can have a measure move to the 50-day SMA. And that's where the bulls need to close, right? The bulls now going into next week need to reclaim and confirm 366 on the queues for a potential measure move to 368. That's the 50-day SMA. And now the bulls need to close above this 368. If we can close above 368, then Christmas is back on. Santa Claus is back on. Little Johnny will get his special case serial, right? Everything will be good in the world, at least on the surface. So that's what the bulls need to do. The bulls need to reclaim 366, build over that level, get to 368, or probably get rejected initially, but any close above 368 potentially could start moving back into upper channels all the way up to 378 potentially going strong into the fourth quarter. The bear's job, right? The bear's job is obviously have them reject all Friday's channels and make sure it starts pushing and getting a close below 363 so we could fall back into this channel. But honestly, I'm rooting for the upside because while there's some really good moves, we'll talk about them on Friday. So where's the big key issues, right? Again, strong jobs report, we know that. Tesla, for the third time, for the third time in the last two weeks, price got a price cut on their vehicles again. The initial reaction was down, right? Tesla was actually getting beaten up. And you guys, if you've been following Tesla, it's been a great, great trader, right? They finally reclaimed the 50. The bulls did a good job handling yesterday's headline and they closed the stock green, right? So this is three times in a row, three separate instances in a row that Tesla had some negative news come out in the stock. It deflected the negative news and closed higher and continues to build above the 50-day moving average. That's a very, very bullish thing, right? It's an incredibly bullish thing. The second stock we talked about on Thursday's video was Na Video, right? I said, guys, look, you've got to have a two-sided game plan. But if Na Video reclaims the 50-day moving average, it can go, right? It can go. And hopefully if you guys, and a lot of you guys, reach out to me via social media, Twitter, whatever the case may be. Great job. I'm very happy for you guys who are not on the webinar. I'm very happy that you guys took advantage of it. Again, we're trying to give you as many actionable ideas as possible if you're not in the webinar. Obviously, the webinar, there's everything on the display, too much to even talk about. But Na Video was awesome. After the close, Microsoft came out with some news that they're going to be trying to develop their own AI chip. The initial reaction, as you can imagine, was they hit down Na Video and then they're springing it back up. I think it was only a dollar and change after the close and the ECN close. But I think Na Video is going to shake off that news. What's the big deal? There's so many companies that are coming out with their own chips. If that was the headline for every single company out there, all these chip makers would be at zero right now. But I think based on how it closed above the 50-day moving average, I still have a runner in this thing. But if there's a shake off, and I think there will be, maybe it gets a little morning weakness on the initial headline, it'll probably trap some shorts. And if it does go back to red to green and starts taking out Friday's channels, I think we could still see 64, 65 measure potential. But this move was absolutely awesome. We'll talk about that in a second as well. So going into this week, again, let's look where the SPX is. SPX is not anywhere close to being out of the woods. I think the NASDAQ is in a better shape. Because number one, the SPX has a lot of retailers. They've been doing crap. They have a lot of energy names. They've been doing crap. They have a lot of consumer cyclical names. They've been doing crap. What's saving the SPX is there's a lot of technology names. You've got Microsoft that have monster move. We'll get to the pivots in a second. Apple waking up. You have NVIDIA waking up. You have a lot of names in the S&P 500 that actually did very, very well. And that's kind of masking a lot of the weakness that there is. But again, you can see here, we're still way below supply on the SPX. The IWM, again, just cannot get out of its own way. I understand it reversed on Friday. But look at the IWM. It looks like a three-legged dog. It just doesn't work anymore. It's just this speculation money is coming out of smaller cap names, mid-cap names, and it's all going into the momentum mega cap stock for the day. It's just the reality. What we have to do is look at your charts. It can't be in denial. If you're trading, especially the small and mid-cap market, you kind of know the lackluster actions there. A couple of the swings that I've been holding. GT finally cracked. We talked about this potentially getting to the 1130s level on Thursday's video. I got down to basically 10% of my short, which is great, which is absolutely great. Hopefully it'll come back in. What else do I have here? Cargill. Cargill, I'm still holding 75% of my position. I still have some gains on it, but not that much. MG and I, it just, it'll never crack. I think I'm coming to the, I think I'm down like 5, 6 cents on it. It just, it just, the damn thing will never, will never crack. CLVT, I'm still holding 2 thirds of my position. I'm up about, you know, 15 cents on it. Nothing crazy, but hopefully it'll crack as well. So let me give you guys some ideas going into, first of all, let's go through the pivots. Let's go through the pivots, and I'll give you guys some ideas to watch. So this is, this is on, on the previous days watch list. On the video, again, the two big numbers. Again, we were really salivating over this thing for the last couple of days. We talked about it on Thursday's video. Full 49 and 452 confirms the 50 day. And that's what the video did. It took out full 49. It took out 452. And the damn thing went absolutely nuts. I went up about 10 on the day. Great, great move. Again, I'm still holding a runner. Congratulations for all you guys who caught that. Amazon, we were watching, again, we were trying to get a two-sided trade, a two-sided trade in case of the jobs. Reaction was one way or another. Obviously, it held 24 and a quarter and never, and never went lower. Tesla never, never confirmed. Apple 7550 and needs to build. So here was Apple, right? Here's Apple. It took out the 7550, this whole daily channel here and traded all the way up to 78. Big, big move on Apple. It's only a little bit, it's only a couple of points away from the 50-day moving average. So that should be really good as well. Microsoft absolutely exploded. Microsoft 322 needs to build. So here is Microsoft, right? It took out this whole supply zone and Microsoft traded all the way up to almost 230. Again, we like Microsoft. We like all these stocks of continuation if the bulls can start building above-backed at 365 level, heading into the 50-day moving average. And I believe that's in Rivian, opened like at 1730s. We never had an opportunity for the Rivian 18 short. So again, let's see if the bulls can win prosperity, right? They won Friday. If you look at the end of the week, despite Friday's really big rally, the S&P only gained half of a percent for the week. And this is despite Friday's rally. You had the NASDAQ up 1.6 percent. Basically, it headed into Friday's session flat and market NASDAQ went up 1.6 percent. So that was a close of the end. Dow Jones, surprisingly, right? Was actually red for the week. So again, we're not out of the woods just yet. But again, Rome wasn't built in a day here. We had to take little steps, 61, 63. Now we've got to get above 65, 68, above 68. I think there's a shot at a year and round. But now the question is, can the bulls actually do it? Again, to be determined. So folks, have a great, great weekend. Hope everybody does well. You know what? Let me give you guys a couple of names to watch. Let me give you guys a couple of names to watch. I forgot to do that in the suck I go. Let me give you guys some names to watch here that I like. All right. So yeah, so let's keep an eye on Tesla. So Tesla broke out this week. We already know this. It's consolidating here for the last couple of days here. Watch this top of the channel here. If Tesla starts getting aggressive, maybe you're going to move this week to 270. Nvidia, I think, again, like I said, I think the stock is going to shake off that Microsoft chip news. And if it does, it starts confirming the channels. I still think the stock sees 64, 65. AMD had a great, great breakout here. A great breakout reclaimed the 50-day moving average. Watch this thing. If it starts confirming this channel here, you could see a push to 109, 110, 50s. And look at a name like, I mean, look at Microsoft. I mean, look at Microsoft. Microsoft got above the 50-day, got rejected, got rejected at the linear regression line. All this thing needs to do, man. All Microsoft needs to do is get above this linear regression line. This potentially could get to 35, maybe even 40 if the market starts rallying there as well. So that's it, folks. That's it. Thanks for planning to join us in the live webinar to kind of see all this stuff and all the moving parts and how cool pivots are. I look forward to welcoming you. I look forward to meeting all our new friends. And hopefully I can see you guys soon and see your career develop. Guys, God bless everybody. Again, thank you very much for spending a few minutes with us. Have a great weekend. Well, God's help. We'll see you all next week. Take care.