 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We can't put a bow on week number one in the NFL until we get to see Aaron Rogers Making his New York Jets debut and that is coming up tonight. We have got the Jets taking on of the Buffalo Bills out in New York We are here to break down all things Bills add Jets by talking Monday night football with Ryan Williams picking his brain on tonight's game Talking about the traditional markets player props and so much more to get you ready for the capper on week number one This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Ryan Williams checking out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan week one is pretty much in the books. I gotta ask how things gone for you so far Yeah, they've been bittersweet Jim to say the least I mean, we started off with the Thursday night game and you know We talked about that and how much I love Travis Kelsey and that kind of drove a lot of a lot of the numbers that I was getting in on KC as far as the over in the game and the chiefs total over and Etc. Etc. But you know, this is this is why we do it Jim I mean just to be able to kind of see things, you know kind of come to fruition And play out there. You know, I was very high on the Steelers. They get boat raced. I was high on the Bears They get boat raced But you know to think about Chargers dolphins we talked about that being one of the best games on the slate and that coming to fruition You know, this is this is the life that we live And so, you know, I think that the more that we start to get data You know the better we kind of feel about things But in overall sense, you know regardless of the week you like to see how things play out How your takes go and we go on to the we go on a Monday night and then week two Yeah, our synergy pick of the week when we talked back on Tuesday was Steelers I plus three and you had a plus two and a half and I think the the company think Ryan is that at least We knew it was toast right away. So we didn't have to worry about that game You know, you cross that game off and you start focusing on okay Are my DFS lot, it's doing better. They were not are my dynasty teams doing okay They were not so at least we could focus on other happier things Which also might not have been going all that great But we do have this pretty fun game on tap for tonight between the bills and the jets We're gonna talk about that game talk about what my model says about that game talk about Ryan and where he's seeing Some value in the player profit and will sportsbook and much more But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast because tomorrow We got Ryan on once again We're gonna have him on here to talk with the futures market talk about teams He is shifting up or down his power rankings based on what he saw here in week number one And we'll take a look at week number two as well involved with that We of course have Ed Fang with us on Wednesday and Thursday JJ's at Creason and Rob Freeman on Friday all right here on the fan dual podcast network Just search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find us on the fan to YouTube page and fan dual TV plus by going to Amazon fire Apple TV Oroku or checking out fan dual comm slash watch and don't forget as well our Thursday night preview Which I'm Becky I will be up later on this week with prime time Tom getting you set for the Thursday night game Later on get ready for the NFL season with incredible offers from Fan dual America's number one sportsbook right now All customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets guarantee plus all customers who bet $5 We'll get $100 off NFL Sunday ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV now is the best time to join fan dual The app is easy to use and you can bet on everything from spreads to player props and more Fan dual official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states fan dual is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement With Kansas star casino LLC first online real money wager only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is non-litrable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat We're shifting the policy terms at sportsbook. 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Hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1 800 1 8 7 7 8 Hope and wire text open why in New York NFL Sunday ticket offer ends 9 18 23 no refunds Terms and embargo supply hundred dollars up NFL Sunday ticket not YouTube TV YouTube TV base plan required to watch YouTube TV Redemption requires a Google account a current form of payments commercial use is excluded Let's dive in now to this bills at Jets game as mentioned before the bills are two point favorites of the total at 45 and a half We'll dig into those specific markets here in a second Ryan first I want to start on a more broad perspective and talk about this Jets team because it's a major difference to have The Jets led by Aaron Rodgers versus being led by Zach Wilson. So I want to know for you entering this year I know we talked about this a bit in a free agency when the Rogers trade First became official, but when you look at this Jets team with Rodgers, what are overall expectations for them entering this year? Huh, I think that my overall expectations Jim kind of start with this You know it comes down to Rogers and how he's playing and I mean the last time that Rogers was doubted And I was one of those people, you know in 2019 of thinking like this guy might be towards the end He goes but he goes out there and wins back-to-back MVP's You know, I think this is a Jets team where you're looking at kind of the state of the NFL You know and like, you know darlings are losing all over the place right like the Chiefs, you know They lose the Lions even though Travis Kelsey's out who understand that situation with the Chargers have been one of somebody's favorites You know and you know, I think for for Aaron Rodgers You're coming into this division here, you know on the AFC East that has been you know Pretty styled and controlled by Buffalo for a long time And so, you know, he's kind of had a little bit of a reprieve being in the NFC you know of just being able to coast through the NFC North and You know into the NFC playoffs and then we've seen that kind of Peter off But I think he has a chance to kind of rewrite his legacy for whatever that's worth I mean the guy's a hull of famer But you know talking about one of the best quarterbacks of all time If he's able to take this Jets team who has a stout defense and has had that and the question was only the quarterback position I think you know, he's he's going to elevate himself You know when we talk about the conversations of you know, the greatest to play after Tom Brady And so you're looking at this, you know first game here against Buffalo and on prime time Monday night football And like if you come out the gates and are able to you know, take care of business I think that you know is going to do wonders For for this team and I think a lot of it for Rodgers comes down to how much you think the thumb injury last year was the Driver for his poor play and for me personally given the the amount of respect I have from as a football player I'm willing to put a lot of weight on that thumb injury because I mean if you think about like from a logical perspective It's pretty tough to throw a football when your thumb's broken. That's just like how I'm trying to view it here right now So I still feel like he's got it and when you put a guy who has that in an offense that has Okay pieces. I know the Cory Davis retirement hurts That hurts the past catches a bit and then the offensive line is question mark Especially for tonight with both Dwayne Brown and Mackay Bechton questionable They're gonna play because they both got in full practices on a Saturday. So it'll be good to go but Bechton's had this knee injury for a long time Brown coming off an injury at training camps didn't play a whole lot So there is some uncertainty specifically at tackle for this offense But I do feel like they're well positioned to make a pretty solid one Which is why actually my numbers of the Jets favorite in this game So let's talk about the way things break down here in the traditional markets We do have the bills favored by two at Vanduul sportsbook the minus two is minus one ten on both sides and The bill is money line minus 130 the Jets money line plus 110 total is 45 and a half and Ryan We've seen the money line bounce around a lot this week because yeah I think I took the Jets at 108 or so somewhere around there They then lengthened which feels awful to 116 now they're back down to 110 So I want to know what's your overall read on the traditional markets in this game Yeah, the Jets getting you know, it was two and a half now. It's down to two So you like you said that it's been moving all over the place and had been you know, even when these lines first opened up Which was you know around that magic number of three and You know for me Jim it comes down to the Jets kind of getting two points here And being a little bit healthier on defense, you know, I think Buffalo for us has to go out and prove it and I'm willing to you know say that they they they can because I think if I'm Buffalo and I'm coaching if I'm coaching that team You know, which I'm adjournment. I'm looking at this and saying okay The chiefs lost bangles lost like these teams are getting exposed We have a chance to you know kind of rewrite the narrative and what people think is the criminal crop of the AFC And last year this was a team that a lot of people had going you know going far And so you got to be able to do that on prime time on the road In a tough matchup, but I do think the Jets, you know with just those outside corners that they have I think they make you know life a little bit miserable for Josh Allen to be able to find some weapons there You know the backfields kind of changed up a little bit there And we'll see you know adding Delvin cook kind of gives another Asset to the Jets as well too and so just because of the teams I feel like are so evenly matched up I'm gonna take the team who's getting the points here and has the home-builder damage Yeah, the plus two again is minus 110 preference for you where I am between the plus two at minus 110 or the Jets money line at plus At plus 110 I feel like you could probably go either way I think that your logic here is take the points in a close matchup So I think you're probably leaning towards the plus two, but I don't want to speak for you there No, I think yeah, you know, that's the always the thing I think people you're getting into the betting market You're like, oh man, I could you know double up my money or you know Lay a little bit of the juice, but I do think taking the points here is is the right bet You kind of get into you know some type of weird things where you know We're already seeing missed make missed extra points and things that nature And you know, you don't want it you want to give your chance to have that buffer And it's not you know too close. We're not talking about like you know minus 110 compared to a plus 180 You know where it's it's that much more Intriguing to be able to take the money line. So I would just take the points in this scenario Yeah, so we are both in the jets what could possibly go wrong there I talked before about how my numbers had the jets as very slight favorites and that's not an anti bills thing So there's been a lot of like weird anti bill sentiment on the betting market But like in the I guess like the media hot takes fear There's been a lot of anti bills stuff the bills are third my power rankings entering the year just behind the chees and bangles Like they're a very good team that my model likes a lot It happens to also like the jets given the sustainability their defense given the fact they have Aaron Rodgers now So it's a pro jets thought and not an anti bills thought I'm excited to be on the bills probably in the very near future. Just not for me for tonight Let's dive into some player props here Ryan the jets you mentioned Dalvin cook They also added Al Mazar so a lot of new faces on this team Which means there's a lot of ambiguity with regards to target shares with these skill position players Look at the jet side of things in the player prop department. Where is he in value right now? Yeah, I think for me right now. I'm looking at Alan Lazard His over his receiving yards over 38 and a half You know, you kind of like that number especially with all the talk that had happened You know in preseason kind of leading into training training camp leading in the hard knocks over Aaron Rodgers not being able to Trust his receivers and Randall Cobb, you know former packer as well Talking about if you're not gonna go out there and run the particular route and he can't trust you He's not gonna throw you the ball And so I don't think we have to worry about that with the likes of Garrett Wilson But I'm thinking about the guys outside of him. And so, you know, there's a reason why Alan Lazard is on this team It's 38 and a half Alan Lazard hit this number last year of Devonte Adams with the Green Bay Packers 11 times last season So I think it's a pretty favorable number under the 40 there And I'd be willing to take a chance on that at minus 113 and Lazard to last year at least did get a Okay number of downfield shots That was always my concern with him last year with with props with DFS was that does he actually get downfield works? He's cannot like the most explosive player But he did get some downfield work and I feel like they'll be willing to push the ball here a bit So a Lazard at 38 and a half definitely does make sense. And I also think Ryan It sounds like you're avoiding the Jets backfield and personally I want to do the exact same thing. I have no interest in betting props here. This could be a nightmare So I'm on board of that one as well in just ignoring the Jets backfield I don't feel the same way about the bills backfield though But I want to ask you first about the bills the bills overall because there's more stability here with their props So when you look at the bill side of things, which props stand out to you there Yeah, I'm thinking You know, we didn't talk about this at the top Jim But I really I really am inclined to take the under in this game, you know, even without von Miller on the Buffalo side I feel like, you know, 45 and a half 46 is kind of where it was creeping around for a long time But you know, that's it's a lot of points and you know, we're we're even seeing, you know A lot of sloppy play to start week one Unders hitting added a crazy clip again in week one I think 10 they went 10 and 4 on Sunday Yesterday and so because of all that I do think that we are looking at maybe the main pieces To go along, you know with with these teams and for me for Buffalo I just think it kind of relies on Josh Allen, you know I know they brought in Damian Harris and he could maybe take away some of that goal on work I still kind of like, you know, Josh Allen at any time touchdown prop to be able to find the end zone there When you're getting plus 160 just from how much of a propensity we've seen him to be able to carry the rock It I'm not probably as bullish on you in the backfield But I do think James cook when if we get a rushing and receiving line From this guy, it's going to have some interest in merit for me Not from the rushing ability but just catching passes out of the backfield which we know Damian Harris has not been inclined to do I hate to say he's never done it because we know how that is with guys like Nick Chubb yesterday Who's all of a sudden getting receiving work like I'll just say but maybe maybe they do dump it off to him But James Cook is by far the better receiver there And so I like thinking about him getting his line and then I will talk about somebody else At the tight end position as well, but I see you chomping at the bit to get in here No, I agree with you across the board on James Cook I think that what you said about like waiting for the rushing plus receiving prop is the way I'd want to play Things because I just prefer that market because I want multiple paths to that bed caching and especially for a guy like James Cook where He has that ability to get rushing and receiving work. It's very attractive. So his rushing prop right now is 43 and a half. I think that's like decently fair And I think that the concern around Damian Harris the concern around Josh Allen things like that are enough where I Think that one's probably about proper and I'd rather not go there. However, he's receiving prop Is at 17 and a half the yardage number with the over at minus 113 Now you look at like how often Josh Allen targets running backs and you'll see like, oh, he never throws them And which makes sense you think about this anecdotally you can talk yourself into it like he's a cannonball He is a reckless boy who is out there doing crazy stuff And he doesn't like why would Josh Allen waste his cannon Dumping it off to a running back But like if you look at their numbers in the preseason James Cook was always out there on the passing downs and He was getting Targets I think that the issue before was that he had Devon Singletary who didn't really have a lot of juice in the passing game Um, they'd try to add naïve hinds They've been trying to find this pass catching back forever It feels like and I think they think they've got their guy now in James Cook So I'd agree with you Ryan where the best market for James Cook is rushing plus receiving if we can get a number I would say 70 and a half if I know that that's probably going to sound a little bit high giving his rushing number is 43 and a half But the in the receiving one is 17 and a half But like I think if we get a number around there, that's going to be pretty enticing because I think that he does have Two paths to potentially paying that off his anytime touchdown number is plus 180 I kind of again, I agree that you were this I didn't bet the under here But I feel like I want to be a bit cautious with anytime touchdown products because I'm worried that it might not be super high Scoring and Josh Allen is always the threat towards the goal line which takes away work from James Cook so to me of the props currently posted best one for me is the James Cook over 17 and a half receiving yards at minus 113 but I agree that you where I do want to check on the rushing plus receiving later on to see what that number looks like Yeah, and I'd I'd be really shocked just seeing the receiving line if they were you know Able to kind of get us into the 70 number. I would imagine it comes in at like 68 67 and a half Yeah, which would which would be great. I think yeah any number in the 60 I feel like I'm definitely going to be pulling the trigger When it gets like that 70 range, I probably would have to think about it But again, you know, I think if we're you know, you're taking the Jets points You're kind of thinking about this being a low scoring game with defense is kind of getting to the quarterbacks Like maybe maybe he maybe James Cook does have the you know more opportunities to Get the ball in the backfield both rushing And the thoughts you mentioned about the Jets outside corners do play into that too because if they're locking down Not they're not going to lock down Stefan Diggs But if they are doing a better job covering Stefan Diggs than your average NFL team That'll also shovel a bit more targets a couple more targets to the running back as well Any other props you want to mention for tonight's game Ryan talked about the Josh Allen anytime touchdown to plus 160 anything else you like as of right now Yeah, let's talk about uh number 88 for Buffalo. Mr. Dawson knocks here and although it is on the road, you know, this is a Jets team that Traditionally, I guess if we look historically over the past couple of seasons They've they've been had by tight ends and you know, I think especially, you know When you're talking about last year and getting that secondary, you know firmed up to where it was, you know, they're Maybe giving up a little bit more over the middle of the field and and you know to these security blankets for the quarterback and Dawson knocks has been that guy for Josh Allen for quite some time here And I think, you know, the numbers are a little bit skewed because we do have the rookie Dalton Kincaid Being in the mix But what have we been hearing all off season jim like this guy's not a tight end He's a receiver and so that does not make me think that there's going to be less Dawson Knox, maybe there's a little bit more 12 personnel where we see both of them on the field at the same time But when we talk about, you know, getting into the red zone and needing that, you know, trusted guy The red zone numbers weren't really there. Um all too much for Dawson knocks I think he had six targets two touchdowns But I do feel like just getting, you know, three to one on the number Over three to one at plus 350 for him anytime touchdown Seems seems pretty great. I think he's plus 2020 to one to be the first touchdown scorer, which I find very intriguing. Um And so, you know, for me, it's just and this is the same thing like with the chargers yesterday jim And that's it, you know, go on to sunday too much But it's just like we've seen Buffalo have the propensity to be able to target multiple guys in this offense You know, I think a lot of the times we think oh, it's got to be Stefan Diggs Oh, it's got to be Gabe Davis. It's got to be Kenan Allen It's got to be Williams. No, like he's got like there's a reason why we have Reggie Gilliam props, you know for Buffalo like the Josh Allen just is looking for the open guy and you know I think Dawson Knox has been able to score in his career 20 touchdowns because he's been that forgotten guy and Usually can that can get open when it gets to pay dirt So, uh, like taking a chance on Dawson Knox tonight I think Donald Parham though is the primary target on the chargers for being serious here though, right? Unbelievable. Yep. Yep. He's the one a Keenan Allen and Mike wins. We won B and one C With Dawson Knox. So like you said, I think they're gonna run a lot of you know, two tight end personnel I think they've been calling it 11 and a half personnel because 11 11 personnel or means three wide receivers But they have kind of like and one tight end But they've got like one and a half tight ends in their formation if they have Knox out there with Kincaid So they've been calling 11 and a half and like that to me says that they have like their own like terminology for it It probably implies that they're both going to be out there quite a bit And like you think about their third receiver situation Sounds like Khalil Shakira hasn't really stepped up as of yet. They haven't really gotten the guy to fill that void behind Stefan Diggs and Gabriel Davis So I actually think the logic is pretty enticing there Also, I would say Dalton Kincaid is plus 450. So like you could go at either of them. Honestly, I would say Um, I think that that would make sense as well But Dawson Knox despite the addition of Of Dalton Kincaid still firmly in play as far as being a legit factor in this offense That is all that we have here for today for this Monday night football preview But as mentioned Ryan is back with us tomorrow talk about some futures markets Talk about some power rankings coming off of week one and probably recapping some of this game So I'm sure that the these routines will be Important pieces we'll talk about futures and talking about how we view the rest of the league to get that as it is posted Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts also Check us out on the Fandall YouTube page and over on Fandall TV plus Ryan It was a delight as always to talk to you. Good luck with your bets and your single game liners tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow Sounds good, Jim. Looking forward to it. Best of luck Same to you. You can find Ryan on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w i on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow fandal research at fandal research. Have a blast watching monday night tonight back with you once again tomorrow This is done covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network