 Okay, traders, that's one PM Greenwich meantime. If you can hear me and you can see the Tick Mail welcome screen if you could type a Y in the chat box. Good stuff. Okay, we will get going here. Before we do, as always, we want to adhere to our risk disclaimer. As we know, trading any financial instrument carries an inherent amount of risk, and you could end up losing more capital than you necessarily have on deposit. More importantly for today's session, the views expressed by me here today are solely mine. They are not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Before we get into the charts, a brief introduction with respect to me for those who are joining us for the first time. My name is Patrick Munley. After graduating from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm after a couple of years of learning the ropes I left and some colleagues. I also found a successfully exit a consulting startup post-emerge late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time in my hands I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling. The S&P 500 and after some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, the beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions. I pretty quickly gave back all my gains and ultimately experienced a six figure hit on my personal capital. So that was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. So at this point, I decided I had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor who had an excellent track record in trading the markets. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months or two years, it was a period during which I up not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing a strategy that suited my personality extensively back and forward testing and underpinning that with a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably the most important watershed shift that I experienced was moving from being a goal orientated individual focused on financial gains to being purely process oriented. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and I had to start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Oftentimes in the face of no negative feedback from the markets in the in the form of losing trades. You make that shift and you become process oriented and you have that professional trading mindset, understanding the true nature of trading being a numbers game, in which you're simply playing the probabilities. You lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even strings of trade my focus on the next hundred trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my actual demonstrates itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual return since 2008. Since 2013 the results trading performance you can see on the screen. I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio from 2010 I've also personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental re-consistent returns from the markets. I've consulted numerous brokers and trading education firms contributing written content, webinars and live presentations on a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and mentoring. I'm also a resident market expert for Tick Mill providing trade analysis on a daily basis and and also providing setups technical setups that I'm watching in the markets you can subscribe to these through the Tick Mill blog and you can receive email alerts for those if you're interested. My other real passion project is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand called fxcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talent at fxcareerswap we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structure program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis for those that are interested. You can email the link there on the screen info at fxcareerswap and someone will get back to you with more information or you can give them a call there in London. The number is on the screen so that gives you a flavor of my background and now let's move into today's discussion. So we are heading into a particularly interesting period in markets. Obviously we have the US elections coming up next week, and that should offer some significant volatility and with that volatility, we can anticipate opportunities to develop. And that's always because we're coming to the end of October. What to check in with the seasonality. This is a seasonal performance of specific instruments over the past 20 years. And one thing that jumps out to me is that the S&P November is actually its best on a seasonal basis delivers its best month of the year, with and somewhat counterintuitively the dollar index has its second best month of the year. So, as we head into these elections, what we can anticipate or or certainly from a seasonal perspective you can see that equity markets generally have a good period during November, but we'll see in a minute how this can be slightly skewed with the elections because this seasonal heat maps don't specifically focus on election years, but we've got studies that do focus on election years for getting into those charts or revisiting those charts. As always want to check in with positioning and positioning still suggests that that we're stretched in terms of the euro and I'm pretty neutral in terms of the dollar hedge funds. As of last week started selling or sorry as of this week started selling into the euro after being on the bid for the past few weeks and we've seen we've seen a bit of a pullback in the euro at the moment but we'll take a look at the charts in a minute. One options trade that's certainly worth paying attention to this was a couple of weeks ago now big options position was put into the market. A 11550 euro puts on on a 500 million dollar 500 million euro position was was taken out in the market and so that's something to keep in mind as we as we go through this election period. And this is these are some snippets of information that I've shared with the guys on the trading floor. This is important because this piece of information here is provided by city, city effects that quantity. And they look at month end rebalancing and what signals we may get with respect to rebalancing of portfolios and how that impacts the effects markets. And notably at the start of the week because markets were elevated. The signal was to sell the US dollar, but as we've seen this pullback in markets the signal is now actually to buy the US dollar. The strongest signal comes against the Aussie which has a cell signal. And so this, this, this, this dynamic could impact the markets as we head into tomorrow afternoon, which is, which is the month end. We also here have a overlay, as we're thinking about having is these elections obviously thinking about in terms of how the markets are likely to trade. This is the US dollar in 2016. So the red line here is the 2016 price action. And this orange line is our current price action in terms of where we're at at the moment. And you can see that a decent bit came into the dollar through the elections. Down here we've also got the positioning data for the dollar which has been very stretched to the downside and we're seeing a little bit of a downtick in terms of in terms of positioning now. And this is also reflected in gold here. This is the gold chart of 2016 versus the current gold price action this triangle we're going to take a look at when we review the charts in a minute. But you can see that we certainly got a decent sell off in terms of gold heading into the elections in the in 2016 versus now and you can see the similarities in terms of price action. Also, this is the NASDAQ performance during the 2016 election, and we can see that we certainly got a sell off before a recovery to a place in terms of the NASDAQ. So just thinking in terms of these equity markets and some of the big instruments in terms of the dollar, as we head and gold as we as we head into next week, we want to be cognizant of some of these potential. If certainly history may not repeat it exactly but certainly the market always has a tendency or certainly displays a tendency for history to rhyme in terms of these pivotal events. Also share this with the guys on my team. This is a bunch of charts here we have a quarterly chart of the NASDAQ, and you can see here if we close at current levels all below. Then, and this chart is certainly starting to display some bearish qualities of potential tweezer top here. This is the S&P 500 down here, versus the 2016 election versus the price action we've seen here in the past, we started a bit of a sell off in the S&P. Obviously the S&P bottom the night of the election in 2016 so we'll see we this is this is the decline was 10 days into the election, and obviously we've seen a bit of a pullback in the S&P and we're going to look at the chart in a minute. This is the this chart here shows the price action in the S&P this is the year 2000s here, and this is the negative divergence we saw into that top in 2000. You can certainly see similarities into into the high that we've seen in in recent days in terms of the S&P. This chart down here is the Dow Jones versus the decline that we saw in between the periods of 1932. And you can again you can see similarities so again, certainly I wouldn't be trading off these overlays but I've always got I'm always cognizant of the potential for these overlays to come into effect. And also later we're going to look at here. This is current price action versus 1987. We know we had a significant crash in 87. And, and you don't need to be any type of pattern geek to see similarities in terms of the current setup. When I see these patterns or when you, you know, looking at these type of charts, I think, you know, you think to say what could drive a replication of the price action while a shot next week in terms of the election and or a contested election could put some real risk into the market. And that's the type of thing that could or the type of dynamic that could drive drive this potential price action. We'll just quickly get run through dollar tends to strengthen 100 days after a presidential election so this is just something to bear in mind. Yes, most of you all know who joined me here. I'm, I'm, I'm long term, or should I say structurally bearish the dollar but I can certainly make some making the case in the near term for some for some dollar strength here. This is an overlay versus what would happen or what has happened historically, if there's been a contested election. I think that Trump has talked about the potential for a contested election in the US. And so we, if we do get a contested election, what we tend to see is a period of dollar weakness before some dollar strength kicks in. And that's about those 100 days post an election. So, again, if we if, if Biden wins or the result is so close next week, and Trump starts to talk about, you know, a legal challenge, then we could expect a little bit of weight in terms of the seasonal charts that we looked at last week in terms of thinking about a low in the dollar into the election. They seem to be playing out at the moment we were looking for a high in the euro into the election. And we certainly we've seen a peak currently in terms of the euro in terms of cable we were looking, we were thinking about a mid November peak on that by the room or sell the fact type set up in cable as we inch closer and closer to the potential for a for a for the Brexit deal to be announced and agreed. Certainly market participants and kind of the view now that the there is, there's more downside likely in terms of a deal not being agreed, then there is upside likely if a deal is agreed so I want to bear that in mind as well that mid November potential peak there from the seasonal perspective. This is, again, this is sterling going back, going back 20 years in terms of us elections. So this is a this is an aggregate of the price action so we could look for a mid November peak in terms of sterling. And then we look for the dollar yet to make a low. And that's potentially this is on this chart obviously it's a high but we talked I talked last week about the idea of inversions in terms of these cycles. And, and again we can certainly see that the dollar potentially puts in a low, and that would obviously drive the dollar yet to make a low. This is gold. And again, thinking in terms of inversion, the idea that gold would make a high prior to the election and then trade weaker. And, and that's obviously backed up in terms of that other chart that I shared with you here. 2016 we saw that pullback in terms of gold. Last but not least copper to make a high prior to the election. And now what we're going to do is move into the actual charts the trading charts, and we'll see how this type of sentiments and seasonality and cyclical information is starting to play out in in the market so first of all as well just want to check back with these these these fractals that I'd shared or have been tracking. So, we were looking for a another high in terms of the dollar index before a consider a reemergence of supply in the market and an extension to the downside. The pattern that appears to be holding at the moment obviously it's, it will require a secondary low and a high then to occur before we could see another leg to the downside so the pattern is still is still in play it's not tracking as well as it had been previously. Okay, and that's the nature of these of these patterns and these fractal overlays they, like I say they rhyme as opposed to necessarily repeat but certainly as we hold current lows we could expect another leg upside in the dollar index, the euro, looking for a leg lower to challenge that 115 similarities here to the price action from September through to November in terms of the euro. The Aussie is another one I'm tracking here, looking for the Aussie to break lower now and and get a move to the downside similar to what we saw again, same time scale in terms of in terms of a low here into December with the with the Aussie. So those are the, those are those fractal patterns that are again just tracking, not specifically trading off, but certainly where we see them syncing up with potential setups, then we want to be cognizant of what's, what's potentially on offer so let's move into the charts I've got a bunch to go through I'm going to whip through these today, as we do have the ECB press conference coming up, just, just after half past one here, so dollar index, two key areas we've got here this is the support at the moment if we hold the support at this point at 9245, then what we've got the potential for is a, an equality objective to play out so if we can hold 9245, then we can expect this pattern to play out so an ABC correction, taking us back up into these prior lows price for to act as resistance up in there and then we see, then I'll be looking for another leg of downsides, but equally whilst we hold 9392, then there is a competing pattern to the downside, which, which would suggest that we trade down into this 9216 ahead of the elections now obviously at the time we've got a bid, we've broken out of the down channel that we've been in. So there is potential for us to challenge this 9392 but we certainly want to see a close through there to open up the potential to trade towards that equality objective. And again, even though we, you know, even once we get up here, this is the chart is still bearish in the, in the medium term, but we could see corrected upside in terms of the dollar. So that's at the broader dollar versus six currency pairs. This is the equal weighted dollar index versus the Euro, Aussie, yen and sterling. You can see we're trading right up into the resistance area here. If we can get through here, then we have the equality objective versus this structure here, which would have us up into this 12260 area. If we can't break 12095, then again we have the competing downside target at 190, sorry, 1940. So it's, we're testing pivotal resistance here in the dollar near term resistance. That's it obviously trading relatively similar to the dollar index has to get through 9167 to suggest further upside to challenge this descending trend line at the 93, 34. Whilst we hold 9167 still see the potential for us to trade down into the descending trend line support before trying to make a recovery there in terms of the swissie. So down through channel support. Now with this dollar strength we're seeing a bit of a pullback here so if we can get a close a bullish close back through 10450, then this could be a false break to the downside and open up a move to test the trend line resistance at 10662. Check in with the Euro. Currently short the euro we've got a move down. We've retested the support area here, looking, ideally looking for this to break set up a move to test that 115 equality objective. But if we hold support then I can easily see us trading back up through 118 retesting this trend line support and it's resistance before making move down to trade to that ideal objective of the 115 handles. So, we'll, we'll have to see how the press conference feeds into the euro here, we're anticipating the guard to strike a dovish tone certainly with economies across Europe shutting down again at the moment, and fears of this second wave so we'll have to see but how held support whilst we hold the support there is still an upside objective at 119. So you can see how similar to the dollar. We're really a bunch of these pairs now are all trapped in a very well defined range and my sense is they're unlikely to break out of these ranges in some sort of supplier demand shock to the market around some type of news catalyst ahead of the election. So people are market participants are less inclined to take on big positions in front of in front of this US election but we're testing pivotal support here. If we break then then we look for 116 ahead of 115 in the euro dollar. We're backing down whilst whilst we hold 125 11 as resistance. We have an equality objective at 120 46 for the euro yen. The euro Aussie I've, I've just been filled here on the long side of the euro Aussie. I'm, we tested into trend line support got this big bullish outside reversal. And, and I'm now long the euro Aussie I'm certainly looking for a test into this 170 area as as the initial upside objective watch for watch for resistance coming here 169 20 but long the euro Aussie at the moment. Kiwi also has similar setup held third test of this descending sorry descending trend line support. We broke through briefly but strong recovery yesterday so looking for follow through here to set an upside objective. Once we get through this sending trend line resistance which comes in now 179 82. And we could see the, the euro Kiwi extend up to 184, which again is an equality objective versus this structure. So that's the pattern we're looking at. Oops, let's draw back in. So, that's the pattern we are looking for in terms of the euro Kiwi if we can hold current support. Still just really trap range range trade then nothing, nothing doing was looking for a topside break when we got this big outside reversal but we are we're constricted by the range at the moment. The sterling dollar is starting to look a little weaker here. We've broken out of the ascending trend line support that we were trading in. And certainly if we get a close at or into these current lows at 129 18, then we can easily make the case for the sterling to trade down to 123 79 here. So, if we get a good retracement, see if we've got any confidence about level. So yeah, you can actually see that's the 50% retracement of this move off the lows here so if we can get a breach here of that 129 then and certainly you can reasonably start to think about a move like this in terms of the sterling for setting up again on the long side. So if you close here in sterling today, if we can close out below this 129 then I think we easily see a move down to 125. Similar story here in sterling Kiwi, whilst we hold this 137 83 we started to roll over here let's just look at the downside targets. And as this structure, we, we can look for a move to 128 25 so that's the quality objective and again, let's draw these in. So, a BCD quality objective there 128 25 so again, a breach here of the of the lows from yesterday, and that would be the downside objective obviously we can anticipate some support or initial support at the 133 test but ultimately we've got a quality objective 128 25 sterling Aussie looking at this one on the long side, we broke out retested the descending trend line support, sorry resistance of support big bullish outside reversal candle yesterday. And this could, this could set up for a move to test the top side of the trend not the trend channel here at 187 75. Aussie rolling over. I'm looking to get short the Aussie through through the 70 cents handle, and I'm looking for a move down to the quality objective at 68 38 as the as the initial downside target on on the Aussie. Aussie yen, I'm sure the Aussie yen as of as of this morning, and I'm at least looking for a test here at the 72 handle may get a bounce there but if we did if the buyers aren't at home at 72, then we've got the 161 extensions that's this structure here. This is the quality objective at the 161. And that comes in coincides with the 50% of traceman. So, so if we don't get if we don't catch a bid here at the 72 handle and then you can look to trade this down to the 69 40 area 50% of traceman and 161 extension of that structure. Aussie Swiss, also in a bearish pattern now and if we take out the overnight lows here, then we look for a test of 63 68 before moving lower and the Aussie Swiss held perfectly the symmetry swing resistance so we have this leg here. This is this pullback, and we held that on a closing basis. So that sets up sets up certainly a retest of the support here, and potentially a deeper move into the, the 63 area will be where so sorry 62 50, and that's the area of interest let's just take a look. So that would be that would bring us into I mean that's just 38.2% retracement of this of the entire advance here so perfectly reasonable to expect that test in terms of the Swiss Aussie CAD also setting up in a bearish channel. So before a move through yesterday's lows at 93 67 and certainly then look for a test of. Let's draw this in. So we'd be through the quality objectives so then what we'd be looking for is the 161 extension, which would have us down at 91 31 that will be the next downside target for the Aussie CAD. Broken down through the channel I was looking to see if that channel support would hold the potential long positions but it hasn't. And so, so now look for the Aussie Kiwi to test support at the 105 60 area could see advanced from there that to my mind will be corrective and will be another opportunity on the downside but watch for bullish reversals here because there's certainly a countertrend opportunity in terms of the Aussie Kiwi from that level. I've just got filled short this this morning as well. Looking at this potential head and shoulders scenario can certainly see the potential now versus this structure to get a test down to 64 30 obviously anticipated to be sticky here in terms of in terms of support at the these prior lows so 65 with the initial area where we might find it bit sticky but ultimately look for the equality objective now versus this structure. So 64 37 is the is the current downside target for that move in terms of the Kiwi and short the Kiwi yen and looking for it to break down now and test 68 70 through there and we can look at 68 17 and then again in terms of equality objective versus this swing here replicating itself here and we can look for 67 15 as the primary objective for this pattern. Let's just check where that comes in in terms of tracements. So yeah that sits at 38.2% retracement. So that's that's the downside objective on this Kiwi yen as we as we trade lower here. So just want to check in now with some of these risk assets so this is the S&P 500. Whilst we hold 3550 area, we can look for a test of 31 70, which is again thinking in terms purely of equality objectives. We have that pattern there. So that's what I anticipate we I can we can easily see this support tested into into the elections next week as traders look to pay a risk basically. Nasdaq has a similar pattern. Looking for your quality objective here so this swing versus this swing should put us down into support here at the 10,400 level is what we look for in terms of the Nasdaq. Gold is going to be an interesting one next week like we are kind of just saying there's the potential for some weakness here in gold in terms of the these pre-election cycle so if we take out supporting gold at the 1850 look for 1825 1802. That's the symmetry swing target versus this leg here and the equality target versus this A, B, C, D. So the equal legs there would have us into 1802 1825. If the buyers don't show up there then I'd be looking for a move down into this 1750 area as the next downside objective for gold. So gold is going to be an interesting chart come the the election evening we saw some wild price action in 2016 in gold so I'd be watching for how we trade out of the election results. And really I don't suggest or certainly would suggest trading with that flow, because that can be that can be really a significant driver for the gold price action, how we come out of the election. Last thing I'm going to check in with a few of these copper breaking down as anticipated, and if we can get through the 303 handle here, then then I'm looking for 293 in terms of copper as the next downside objective and actually drag down these commodity currencies crude oil on the back foot, looking for 3419 as the quality objective. And, and we'll see if, if we catch a bid here at 3419. If if we don't then we look for the 31 31 handle is the next downside target in terms of in terms of crude. Lastly, Bitcoin. It's been a decent ride here, since we discussed it a few weeks ago. And, and I'm looking for any pullbacks into 12,480 watch for bids to emerge there. And I think then you can target move up to 14,500 is the next upside objective. So I've rattled through a few charts there today guys want to want to try and jump onto this ECB press conference and see, see how the guards positioning this stuff. Are there any questions, anyone has a chart they want me to look at haven't covered quickly type into the chat box. Otherwise, and ending the chat box to let me know we're all on the same page and I'll wrap the webinar up here, and then we'll reconvene this time next week and should be a should be a very interesting session next week. Okay, thanks very much everyone for joining and I hope you found this useful.