 Teddy kegs that what's going on with the note and bond market man Wow, we got some good stuff to talk about today, and I'll tell you what the people who've been reading the fight that's well The tiger forex report must be happy with the numbers as for sure Calls man, so even from the conversation we had on Monday in terms of notes and bonds with the letter So congrats man, and yeah, let's get into it. So where do we go man? We got oil. We got notes and bonds We got the market. Where do you kick it off? Let's let my let's talk about the interest rates first So the bonds spiked high they rejected our upside target zone We they pierced it by a few ticks and now they're three handles lower So I think you really have to key off of what happened yesterday as far as the interest rates and also with the dollar index Either we put in the short either this correction is over right now for the short term And we're gonna start getting back to the regular trend at hand or we're gonna take it out And we're gonna extend this correction, you know And I think right now we put in a short-term top in the bond market a short-term bottom in the dollar market You know and that's gonna definitely be what we're gonna have to follow over the next couple days Is we head into unemployment and the question is will unemployment be the accelerator and put us back onto these trends meaning dollar Bulls and a dinner on the interest rate bear or is unemployment gonna shake up the market and all of a sudden We have a lift in bonds Meaning lower rates and also a dollar that gets under pressure again And I think that's the inflection point we'll see but right now I think I'm right now Embarrassed on bonds and I'm bullish on the dollar So would that be looking for you know you wait for Friday's number? I mean in theory you already have some Fed speak out here today, right saying 2.5 percent 2.6 Was probably not where we should be in terms of what the market was reading from chairman Powell or maybe expecting We're back to 2.8 percent on the 10 year real quick So that would maybe lean towards we get some of that data And I know you're saying the data is gonna drive it But really looking towards the Fed probably still needing to hike and inflation persisting if that if that scenario might play out with us Hiking interest rates given the dollar more strength and continue with that trend with that. Correct. Correct. Nice Crew crude oil this morning. So OPEC with the smallest of margins increase of a hundred thousand barrels a day Crude pops and then we get a little bit of a give back We've held kind of that critical area of of whether it's 93 94 95 bucks on the lower side of there What's your take on on that crude acceleration today? I think it's just a peparelli Moment from the news to be quite honest with you. I think that's all the selling and pressure is right now I would be very cautious with it I think that the numbers of you when you really see what actually gets delivered and how things come to market I think it's gonna be bullish on oil still I think this is just a news driven or just a little bit of Puffery, you know to kind of help how to keep the prices down, but it's not the reality is they're capped out They're not gonna be able to produce to any there's no way they can increase production to meet demand Especially moving forward moving and especially going into winter time Yeah, and it seems like and you make a great point because I was reading an article this morning Bloomberg said, you know of the Increases they've had really it's only the Saudis in the UAE They really hit that number and you have all the other members that don't And then you put those numbers in terms of where they end up on a hundred thousand barrels And yet the president just going over to the kingdom He can't be a happy camper this morning So it seems like the slightest of what they could do as opposed to doing nothing, right? Maybe with him being over there so you take that for what it's worth man Not exactly a price acceleration to the downside. How about the dollar yen Teddy We've had some action in pretty decent in both directions right now for the dollar yen. We're back to one thirty three sixty six We made it to one thirty and change yesterday What's your take on the dollar yen? I'm bullish right now. Like I said at least moving into unemployment I am bullish to dollar especially in markets like the US dollar yen and the US dollar Swiss They're the ones that had the most extreme correction. Okay, so I think that they just let me look at how markets go out And they come in just on a volatility basis. I'm very bullish on the yen in the Swiss right now So and where would you look forward to the upside? Can it really challenge almost 140 again? It's remarkable. It was there July 14th after sure Okay, well, let's say let's say that I'm right on the correction being over if that's the case then yeah We're gonna take out the high in the US dollar yen I would look for I would look for parody in US dollar Swiss and I will look for every bit of Testing 140 I think we could challenge that and that would be in a short amount of time too Remember we have two months to a Fed meeting and if we if then if we can get through Friday and keep this trend intact Then that means we'll confirm that the correction is over in those in the broader markets Yeah, it's gonna be interesting man Friday's number, which is crazy It's less than 48 hours from right now and then we get CPI next week it seems like those two big numbers alone might really shed some light on what's going on here and And and if the trends make it through there, man What else is stepping in the way? At least for the foreseeable future with those two numbers pretty important right now with what's coming down the line And if CPI is higher, you know that the Fed's gonna have to raise raise If CPI is higher, watch out like seriously Because it is remarkable that for all the talk we got out of the chairman's last press conference The last data point we have is nine point one percent for CPI But it's so dated that it gives all of this room, you know, it's June data even the number we're gonna get to July They're not meeting again until next month September So much data coming at us What else anything else in terms of waiting for Friday's action that you're watching I mean as a forex trader Do you just kind of keep those trends that you talked about in place and then we wait for Friday and you take a Look at what happens after the jobs number. Yeah right now I'm use I'm playing just a pure technical thing because the way I'm looking at it is if the if the markets reverse and all Suddenly for instance the dollar index the low that they hit yesterday was it was a key level You know just like the bonds the high in the bonds yesterday was a fifty percent move from the March high down to the recent swing Low of a month and a half ago. So that's a really really big pivot point So like I said, either we've hit the end of the correction or whatever puts the propels us through that is gonna Surges to extend that leg higher in a big way, which is technically driven because remember We've been talking about we have a divergence in the interest rate market versus the Fed, you know rates are going up Bond prices are going up. How is that possible? You know, so there's a there's a rubber band of fact that eventually One of them has to give either the Fed stops raising rates and goes with the market or the market has to snap back You can only be a premium or a discount net spread between you know And also you look at the interest rate spreads in themselves Look between the euro-dollar the interest rate versus the you know the live or all these things are now at like inflection points That are crazy. You haven't seen the differentials like this in a long time Yesterday the tenure was almost tick for tick with the 30 year at the beginning of the day That's a big deal. Most people don't look at the different You know usually that the bonds are like, you know, three to two ticks or maybe sometimes two to one You know, but you don't have them one to one That's I mean we're literally the bonds are up 20 and the and the notes are up 20 ticks That just does not happen, you know And when you do somehow those spreads someone the money is going to move and there was no blow-ups at any of any brokerage houses Usually the only time you have those occurrences is when you have someone where they have a big margin call And they have to dump one month or something or was something like that gets a little distorted from one action Yeah, you know if you take a look at that 30 years well, man You put it on a monthly go back to 1999 the trend line that it is bouncing off, right? It bashes through that trend line and all it's done folks This is come back and just tested that line and maybe that's where it goes lower Our man bud Ross the channel master an old technician at TF and egg day It say you break the trend, right? Then you wait for it to come back and test that trend, right? Boy, if that's what it did watch out folks on the third year, right? Teddy we appreciate it as always man You have a great one and we'll talk to you next Wednesday. Take care. Thanks. You too