 The Tom O'Brien show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Let's go to Alan Homassasa. Hey Al, what's going on? It's been wonderful. This gentleman here with the gold report right before the market fell apart ended up with PAAS. We have a 98% gain in the year and I mean you weren't 99% proof like Irish whiskey, but we had good gain there. You always told us to do what we feel comfortable with. And if I lose a little bit of money on the table, I will, but I know that I just pocketed $8,000 or $9,000 for two weeks. That's a beautiful thing, man. Now, Tom O'Brien. Welcome folks. This is Tom O'Brien of TFNN. We've got five days a week. We go seven hours a day. We go 24 hours a day on the internet at TFNN.com. Always remember folks, whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on grows. Hope everyone's having a great day, safe day. Let's make it a great week, folks. Ignore the opinions of others. Don't take anything personally. Whatever people do, feel, think, or say. Don't take it personally. Others are going to have their own opinions according to their belief systems. So whatever they think about you is not about you, but it's about them. Now, that's a really strange God, man. Kind of tough to understand. Mugging wise, let's take a look at it out here. We have the Dow Industries down 40 and that's like up 107 S&Ps up 13 and a half. Gold contract trading down $6.60 at $19.87 an ounce. We have silver down 32 cents, $23.18 an ounce, light sweet crude trading down $2.29 at $85.78 a barrel, notes and bonds. A ten year note, up 13 ticks trade in 106.13. The 30 year is up a point and a half at 109.27 and King dollar. King dollar's down 588 ticks trade in 105.575. Euro is out here at a price point of 106 yen is at 149 British pound is at 122 to 1 U.S. dollar. Our phone number is 877-927-6648. Give us a call folks. We'll know what's going on in your world. In the world of the S&Ps, let's take a look at them. The S&Ps looked over the cliff. Bottom line, Friday you came down with volume. You're coming down right into the bottom of the consolidation and bottom line, you could have jumped this creek in a second, man. And you didn't. The bottom line is that the futures were down this morning. When you jumped the creek folks, the bottom line is that you'd be down 30, 40 points, so you got a gap in the deal. And that's not what we got. What we got is that the S&Ps trade down to $417.80. Your swing point there is $420.18 and rejected it. You're going to have volume in the swing point. The swing point is 103 million shares right now and only at 62. So you can see what happened. You're down there. They stopped buying the market again. Bottom line. Now we'll see what kind of bounce we're going to get. We look at the NDX100. Same type of setup in the NDX. Now you've got to remember that the NDX, the last time that the NDX came into that swing point, it was also a one-day wonder. This time here, well, it was a one-day wonder, but it stayed under the swing point for a day. This time here, it did not stay under the swing point. We got down to the 351.12, rejected it ASAP, you're at 357. Now it's going to be intriguing for the Qs. It looks like that the big tech is going to save the Qs. And the big tech will save the market because what we have out here this week, you got Amazon, you got Google, you got Microsoft, they're all coming out with numbers. But what's really going to save the market, or has saved the market, and we'll get into this, is going to be the bond market and the dollar. Let's get out a little bit further. We get onto the gold market next, okay? So the gold market, my take as a gold market, not only has already taken off, it's going to take off like a rocket ship. And the reason I'm saying that is this. So, picture, we just, the rates just kept going up, but yet gold was going up too. And, you know, depending on how long we've been in the gold market, you know, the mantra always was, oh, you get higher rates, gold's got to go down. Well, guess what? It didn't go down. Now what you've had is that you're probably setting up a very large ABC structure, you know, right now we're at the 1987, it looks to me like 2129 is your next level. And, you know, we got here pretty quick. I mean, this is what's so intriguing. So listen to this, when you look at how fast we came off the bottom, wait, wait to see this, five, 10, 15 days basically took back four and a half months. Yeah. That's normally just the other way around, folks. Like when you'd normally go down, that's what happens. But in this case, it was going up how it happened. Notes and bonds. This is the number right here, man. You heard of when I was doing that update, the news everywhere. In fact, Bloomberg's backing this up again, saying, oh, five percent's going to be back, five percent's going to be back, five percent's going to be back my eye. The bottom line is that we woke up this morning, that 10 years hitting five percent. Okay. Here, let me show you something. The 10 years hit five percent overnight when no one was trading. The high was 4.990. Okay. Right now we're 4.844. And if you take a look at it, it's the 10 year, right? Everything's predicated on the 10 year, by the way. Okay. That's your credit cards are, the mortgages are. Well, let's put it this way. Everything that, you know, us as individuals, you know, deal with. Not, you know, market participants, yeah, they can deal with the two year, they can deal with the 30 year, but market participants in general. And so look at the contraction of volume that we had. It was a monster contraction of volume on Friday. Today, bottom line, we get, well, you didn't even hit the lows today. That's what's amazing. I love the idea that we had the news, and it didn't even hit the lows. Okay. And then we go to King Dala. It's all lined up, man. King Dala has, you know, it was messing around last week, but that messing around, now it proves that that was building cause to lower price, because now you got wide price spread again. This is the third time we have wide price spread coming off the highs. Now what this sets up is going back to this 104 699. And that the reason that's the number that it took quite a while to get through. So we'll see how it deals with that number, because that number is also, or it's this, that number is also right around where the 0.382 retracement is. So the bare side of this is that it broke. It's up trend. It's coming back. We'll see how it handles that 104 699. The bull side of the dollar is that it should have pulled back anyway. Okay. Now a 0.382 retracement is nothing. Okay. So it's going to be crucial to see where this dollar lines up. My take is that it's going to go all the way to the bottom. And the reason I'm saying that we're at the perfect time frame right now, meaning you're at the, we're at the 23rd of October, you have the big tech numbers coming out this week. We have window dressing next week. This market wants higher price. And it's still just shaky enough. You know, and because we've gone down so far, you know, this has been a one-way trip for quite some time. People won't close their positions as fast as they actually should until you do see a couple really good signs of strength in the S&Ps. And then you see some conviction, more conviction in the dollar as we go to lower price. Dow industrials right now, down 69, the Nasdaq's up 92. S&Ps are up nine. Stay right there, folks. Come back when I manage to Steve Rhodes. 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You can get his newsletter for one month for $149. You get it for six months for $695, which is a savings of $199, or 22%. And you get it for a full year for $1195, which is a savings of $593, or 33%. Now they all come with a 30-day money back guarantee, okay? So the bottom line is that you can come over and say, okay, I want six months, see if it works. On the 28th day, if it doesn't work for you for some reason, just tell us you want your money back, no problem. Steve has a huge amount of archives out there, the different tools that he uses, you know, it's a nice value deal, folks. Steve Rhodes, what's going on? Well, baseball still next October 23rd. Reggie Jackson. Here we go. Mr. October, that's a long time ago, folks, but he was Mr. October. Yeah, it was. But it's still, I mean, there's gonna be a couple of great games on tonight. Yeah, I'm not a, I'm not a baseball fan big time during the year. I'll go maybe catch a game or two. But during the, you know, the Playoffs World Series. It makes a difference. That's right. It does. But it's a small marketplace this year beginning two teams in Texas. Okay, I got that local market, right? It doesn't really expand out. You know, you got that you got Philly and so it should be a good game tonight. The the the Texas games have been great. So I'm looking forward to that, but it's still hard to believe it's October 23rd. We're still playing baseball out there. I know, especially because we like hockey so much. Exactly. Exactly. So what I thought today we would do and we're gonna touch on some of the stuff that that you've already talked about, but it's one to give you and the folks that are listening and watching, you know, what I'm keeping my eye on. So the first thing is, as you say, it's all about the dollar, king dollar. So let's start here. I know you've already talked about it, but I'll give you a different, a slightly different take on it at least levels for us to watch. And that is that if we this is my US dollar index dollar chart, we can see that since the bottom bottom back here in July, and what I have on here, folks, the tools that you're looking at on this chart are just has market profiles. And what the market profiles do the bottom of a profile tells us where buyers reside. The top is where the sellers are at. And the center is where both buyers and sellers believe there's fair value with inside that range. Now in this case here, what's really cool is that each of the pullbacks and you were talking about some of the pullbacks out there. Each of the pullbacks here have found support at the bottom of their daily profile. This first one was back in the August time frame. So this is the green arrows that we're taking a look at talk about waking up and looking out over the cliff, maybe jumping over the creek out here. So we have that same situation that has occurred here in the US dollar index, but each time that prices tested where the buyers are at the bottom the profile prices held now, I do have a Rosemont Dominicator top that's in place out here. So in order for the US dollar index to really tell us that it's breaking out, we need to see a close above 10705. But right now today, a close below 10557 is going to signal to you and I a change in trend. So a little bit different methodology than what you use out here. But just another confirmation, you and I, we don't talk about this stuff beforehand. And we don't talk about so but we're both coming up with really the same conclusion. So the figure to watch today folks is 10557. Now, I've got a really faint yellow line going across where we have other prior swing points. So really, that's kind of like the last bastion of hope. We get below those, then it just confirming this change in trend signal that we're taking a look at now, as we've discussed, as you've discussed before with everybody, a change in the dollar meaning that's going to have lower should put strength. Here we're taking a look at silver. So this is a three day correlation chart. So this gives us the directional correlation. So at the top, I've got silver. The center is the US dollar index. And what's below it is the correlation I'm using here the the tightest correlation I can, which is a three day average. When the bars are at the bottom of the of the zero line below zero, folks, what that's telling us is there's an inverse relationship. So as Tom would say, the dollars going higher, metals will be going lower, the dollars going lower, metals are going higher out there. So you can see that it's a pretty darn good coral, pretty good inverse relationship between these two. If we take a look at gold, it really says about the same thing. In fact, I'd say gold's correlation. They're both about the same. I'd say gold is a little bit more more favorable, a little bit more consistent with regard to that inverse relationship. So now we've got that data to look at last Friday. The interesting thing here is last Friday, gold formed a TD nine count top. You mentioned some of the tools that come with folks that subscribe to my newsletter service or the current subscribers out there. And this is really, this is a great tool for everybody to understand and learn. So we had a confirmed TD nine count top in gold last Friday. By the way, the bottom that formed in gold back here, that was a TD nine count pattern as well. So what this tells us is that in order for gold to tell us that it's going to move up to the higher level and the higher level that I've got is 2084. We need to see a close above 2009 20. A close above that will negate that signal. And then where I'm coming up with that 2084 level, Tom, is that would be the weekly TD nine count breakdown resistance level. So how I determine where a breakout occurs or the breakdown occurs is using this TD nine count system. Yes. Now, the cool thing about gold for its weekly time frame, and you'll love this. You know this, it formed a Gartley by pattern on a weekly basis, which is not easy to do. I haven't spent the time to go back and take a look at the weekly charts on gold or silver, but there's not a ton of weekly Gartley by patterns. And that's what we've got here. It's above resistance as we speak. Resistance for gold using the TAS market profiles would be up in 1964. Now, if we take a look at silver last week on Friday just by a smidgen, silver negated its TD nine count top. All it needed to do was close above 2349, which it did on Friday. However, in order for silver to really tell you and I that it's breaking out, I need to see a close above 2392. If we get a close above that, then 2522 is into play. These green lines here, these are where I have it that the instrument broke down and we take a look at the daily time frame, the GDX. So put it all together. The GDX completed a TD nine count top last Thursday. And what price should do is it should pull back to target a Saucer and change line right around 2250. I'm sorry, right around 2854 out here. However, a close above 3007 isn't going to negate that top and is going to tell us we're going to move up to its next breakdown area, which would be 3175. So what I'm providing for folks out here are the numbers to be watching either to the upside or to the downside. The ES minis inverse relationship to the dollar, not as strong if we take a look at that bottom panel. It's there, but we can see that it's starting to wane a bit out here as of the last really since about February. So it's not as strong as that relationship between gold and silver. This is the NQ's relationship up at the top here is the NQ. Again, the bottom is the is the correlation. So a review of the Daily Equity futures contract. I've got bottoms for the ES, the NQ and the Dow, the YM out there. For the ZEP on the ES, we've got to buy the D point pattern. The only way that gets negated is a close below 423550. The NQ, it's got a TD9 count bottom. The only way that gets negated is close below 14586. The Russell to the Dow also has a buy the D point pattern. That needs a close below 33021. And even though you can't really see it out here necessarily there's wave sevens part of the Basel Chapman, Chapman wave count out there. And all this needs is a higher low in order to confirm a bottom. So what have we learned the US dollar index? If it closed below 10557 today it's going to suggest we got a change in trend. Both gold and silver have got that strong relationship. A close above 20, 2009, 20 in gold is going to negate that cell signal and suggest that we head up to the 2084th level. I like it man. Nice breakdown Steve Rhodes. No doubt about it man. Thank you. You have a great week, a safe week and of course we look forward to show tomorrow morning. You bet it. Here's my 30 year Treasurer and on Thursday last week informed a roadsman to Mindicator but on Friday it did. That's edited to 113. It's a beautiful thing. Stay right there folks on my back. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019. Finishing it number two for the year. An amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability newsletter. 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In the Tiger Zen you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach to sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com Don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV Welcome back folks to Dow. Dow Industries right now trading down 168 to get the NASDAQ up 58. S&P's are down 3. Let's go into the Dow Industries and take a look at the strength versus the weakness inside the Dow point wise. Okay, this is what we have out here. You have point wise Microsoft's putting 20 positive points American Express 16 Walmart 15 taken away from it. United Health minus 43. You get Chevron minus 40 Amgen Yeah, Amgen minus 36. So let's go to I want to go to Chevron for a second because this is when it's pretty wild to see that the oil prices have been high enough for a longer period of time that these oil companies Exxon just did the monster deal now you have Chevron doing a monster deal Chevron's buying has all stock deal I think it's 50 billion. Yeah 53 billion Chevron to buy has for let's see what they have to say Chevron's going to be Chevron agreed to buy has for 53 billion deal aimed at boosting production growth as the U.S. oil industry bets on enduring future of fossil fuels. It's an all stock transaction Chevron's going to pay a buck to FES 71 a share for has and let's go see what they haven't the thing that's interesting is that you know Exxon didn't pay up and maybe has wasn't public. No, this is has okay. So has trading 162 yeah and the bottom line is that an all stock deal you can see there was no premium paid man this is what's so intriguing in both of those deal while there was a small premium paying the Exxon deal of when they bought the Shell producer Pioneer but on this one here there's literally no premium in fact that's you know less than it was on the same it was on Friday because the lower that Chevron goes the lower the has is going to go. Yeah it didn't you know this is like it's high but hey it is what it is inside the in the Exxon 100 the strength versus the weakness inside the in the Exxon you got Walgreen boots that's up three and a half percent and video is catching a bit that's up three and a half percent you get Airbnb up three and a half percent I want to come back to that one for a second bookings.com is up 2.6 taken away from it Intel's down three and a half you got Raleigh automotive we'll come back to that one down that's free I want to see what's going on there okay so first let's go to Airbnb and then I want to do yeah I want to do Airbnb and I want to do O'Reilly because that's going to get interesting okay so let's go take a look at Airbnb and see what they're doing yeah so 181 the highs 154 they're going to be coming out with numbers on the first of November this is just like the market yeah there's not enough volume this is just like the market it's coming back to the strength from last May got a little bounce going nothing heavy though there's no conviction there yeah there's no conviction there okay so O'Reilly O-R-L-Y so O'Reilly automotive they come out with the numbers the 25th they're coming out this week the low for the last year 52 weeks is 749 the highs 975 they are going to be looking to bring in 4.1 billion to the top line 10 dollars and 39 cents to the bottom line I got some problems here look at this maybe this is if you listen to Tommy's program this morning oh they're still at highs this has been a consolidation of highs yeah it's going to be hard to break this down anyway what I was going to say if you listen to Tommy's program this morning now this is a real heads up too man the repo man okay there's more repossessions of cars that's been going on for like the last 15 20 years folks okay and what's intriguing about it it seems to me that you know like in 2007 2008 okay everyone got over their head because they could get over their head in the housing business right and what has happened you know in the last you know whether 5, 6 well in this particular case it's probably yeah it's probably 4 or 5 years everyone got over their head in the car business why because they let them I mean it's that cut and dried that if you remember you know cars used to have a loan ratio of like 3 or 4 years well about 7 years ago they extended that to 5 or 6 years I don't know if they're up to 7 years yet but it's insane amounts of numbers right and they basically let you drive off that lot for almost nothing you know so you can see I can see that whole thing cascaded the difference is that unfortunately if the other person is getting repossessed that's pretty tough going to work and the rest of that that's not going to hit the economy though you know all that's hitting that's going to hit the sub bonds that a backing that amount of cars and then I can picture what actually also happened that there's so many folks through the pandemic that overpaid in a monster way because of the supply demand deal but it's also an indication that the amount of money that is in the economy has been shrinking is shrinking and I suspect will continue to shrink because you know even if I'm right on the context of the bond market that you know these rates are going to start going lower you are still at a very high rate net rate of interest for anything that you are going to buy as a hard asset so I think the car market is going to say quite a bit I think if you're looking for a car just wait another four or five months and there's going to be so many used cars on the market it's insane now that's what gets interesting about that O'Reilly okay that's still hanging at highs up there but most times you know the O'Reilly's of the world they make money when the economy is bad when the economy is good you know so we'll see where that shakes out what we are going to have this week inside the NDX100 which is you got Microsoft that's going to be coming out with earnings on the 24th we have Amazon that believes the 24th also 26th Google is the 24th Apple probably next week Apple's November 2nd and what's going on with Apple now this is going to get really interesting because this morning what you had out here in China is that you know China is looking at the Foxconn now so there's a lot of building pieces man right now in the big tech area that one just shows that 191 that's except 45 it's a piece of seven and a half stay right there folks come right back you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is 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only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just $1 for the year there's no cash or added costs if you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of TFNN.com this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ Welcome back folks down just to say now $1.70 NAZEK is up $54 S&Ps are off $3.5 let's go look at the 30 year also folks we take a look at the 30 year I got a nice movement the 30 year you get 581,000 contracts but I want to do this I'm going to bring this back I want to see both where this actually hit on the generic chart because what you're going to have here folks is this is that let me bring this back first is that the you know is number one huge much bigger than the equity market what's also happening is that because the moves have been so large meaning on the way down there's plenty of support at these levels down here there should be where 2003 and 2004 levels for the 30 year and we're at 2023 so my point is if the if the 10 year gets follow through you are going to see a huge amount of buy in here because of the fact that I brought this up on Friday if you remember that when you know on Fridays best fit nice to do the half the show is the real estate show and you know we were talking about interest rate structure and you know a couple times we had the Bud Springs Springs on about mortgage rates right and when in fact the 2021 when we did hit zero on the 10 year the 10 year mortgage rate never went below like the 2.5 2.65 okay so what had happened then was that there was so much demand okay that the brokers themselves okay weren't going to go under that number even though the Fed was you know that actually they were at minus 5.0 minus half a percent so just the opposite effect could be taken place right now meaning that you'll have the market first commence that buy in the tens the twos the fives and if that happens and there's follow through you will see not a tsunami but you are going to see a huge amount of buying because the question is going to be then am I missing you know getting 4.75 5% on my money okay you know so we'll see where this shakes out but my take is that exactly where we're at right now because it seems like all the pieces actually fell into place the biggest piece really had to do with technically the 10 kept going down it spiked its lows when it spiked its lows it did a tremendous light of volume we still went lower on Friday we didn't go lower on Friday but bottom line it couldn't hold price and then the pricing on the cake was waking up this morning there's no doubt there that's where it was and then just as I'm speaking about this so listen to this the news media will still stay on to this for a bit so here's the new one up so that was the headlines in the journal this morning as well as the Bloomberg now the Bloomberg just put a new one up New Age for Treasuries means 6% yield isn't out of the picture you gotta picture how this gets done first first you have an editor that has to basically you know give a couple of writers you know say okay you have an assignment so I suspect what ended up happening is that when overnight that we did hit the 5% in the 10 year right they woke up and said oh my god okay you know yeah here's your writing assignment and you know this just came across what is it 3 o'clock in the afternoon right is saying that hey you know this thing could go to 6% now that's the type of action that you actually need in order to get bottoms going and you can imagine like you folks listening well we're in the marketplace so this is where the mark that when you're in the marketplace I've found that it's so cool because if you really understand notes and bonds it doesn't mean you're gonna be right all the time you're pretty close to you know being right there you're not... the note and bond market is different than the equity market folks okay it I can't really put my finger and describe what I'm talking about but I can tell you from the time I was 30 years old I always kind of had this note and bond market down it can be off but you're not gonna be off that far a lot of the times what ends up happening is that you need the end of the world scenario that rates are never gonna stop going up that the squeeze is gonna be on forever and that's not how it works the squeeze has been on for a long period of time the squeeze has been on for a good year and a half right now and it doesn't mean the Fed's gonna pull back I'm not saying that the Fed's gonna pull back what I'm saying specifically what happens themselves are gonna start buying the notes and bonds meaning the more they buy them they pull the rates back that's kind of where this shakes out and the sweet spot this is how this goes the sweet spot inside the mortgage market is 2.5 I mean 5.5 and a half that's the number so what would happen there you still need a lot of movement and I don't expect 5.5 rates overnight I do expect we're gonna be at 5.5 probably 6 to 7 months from now though which is gonna be a big number and as the dollar goes we get a question of the dollar as the dollar goes lower the dollar has been driving rates so if the dollar continues to go lower you're gonna see rates go lower because it's all predicated on what the rate is for the country for its currency that's how they get priced that's the real bottom line so it seems really bizarre that even where we are politically meaning you don't have a house of representatives we have a house of representatives that you know I mean I don't know if this is sadly not live or you know what it is and you know it's amazing too anyway they can't get a freaking thing done that's the bottom line and I don't expect that to change by the way either what blows my mind about all this whole context people think it's actually gonna change it's not gonna change because you get 8 Republicans that just don't want to do anything on a continual basis but that's all they need to stop everything and they don't care about stopping everything so that's not gonna change I suspect they'll do something to get the government not to shut down but my point is on the market it's not gonna make any difference this market wants to go up because the fact of the matter is that bonds are gonna basically continue higher on price lower in yield and if the dollar goes down it's gonna give the market a breather which really put that in front of a Harvard class or an MIT class a few years from now right? you have wars in the Middle East you have house representatives that is non-functional and markets that go up that's about as deep as you can stay right there folks come right back Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? 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