 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is crackling everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in Number fire calm as we are getting you set for college football week 12 and Taking an early look at some college basketball numbers for this year as well And what Ed's numbers say in general how his model works So good deep dive into college basketball to get you set for this year. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Ed Fang of the power rank calm You can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank Ed happy college basketball season to you. How are you doing today? I'm good. I'm not sure what's crackling. I feel like I need to order something from Amazon and snap some bubbles That's always my intro for the heat check podcast And for some reason I decided to do it for this one and I was like halfway through the word and I was like, wait a minute This is not a little bit. I mean with all the audio that you do. I'm not surprised that you get it mixed up once in a while Well, I've called like so JJ Zachary since my boss and I have called him the wrong title For because like I have to I do a prog to podcast week with you I do two per three people per week with Brandon Cadulla my co-worker and I do one with JJ and I said that JJ was He managing editor for number fire and he's the editor-in-chief and like Halfway through saying it. I'm like, oh, no, I'm gonna get fired. JJ's a very nice guy He would never fire me for something so stupid, but like I just like go on like autopilot and forget where I am What dimension it is what sitting I'm in and it's it's why yeah And the probability that that happens goes up with more shows that you do exactly So when I get up to your level of shows, right? I actually screwed up a bunch on my podcast this week Which is why I'm really thankful that I have My guy David that edits it all later, but I was doing it at 10 30 p.m. Last night Yeah, just not a sharp at 10 30 p.m. No, I'm not a sharp at Anytime at this point in the year because we're so far into the muck where I've said Well, what's up everyone or whatever? 15,000 times by this time I calculated in like I had a performance review last year and I had to calculate the number of Podcasts I did and it was depressing. I would say the number just because it's like oh it's I spend a lot of time talking to myself every week and it's very weird it's inspiring how much you spend talking to yourself That's not the word I would use, but I appreciate the thought process behind that But I think it's gonna be a fun one Ed because we get to talk a little bit of college basketball I have had the pleasure of talking to you about college basketball for I think the past three or four years now to preview them To preview March madness, but I haven't gotten to talk to you in season about your model So we're gonna get to dive deep on that today talk a little college football too But before we do that the new college football rankings came out last night and we're gonna take a look at what your model says about Probabilities of making the playoffs and stuff, but overall impressions for you around the college football rankings last night Yeah, you know and everyone was looking for where Minnesota was gonna end up They take a rocket ship from the low teens up to 8th Obviously pretty interesting. They're not gonna be there for long. So Right and we'll talk about Minnesota to go through last week as well We're gonna take a look at that with Rufus Peabody and the numbers we had with him And we'll dive in to week number 12 as well, but I thought it was I thought Georgia was very interesting Maybe we'll talk about them too. We talked about your numbers, but we'll do that in a little bit We'll have our NFL podcast going up tomorrow with Edward Egros Breaking down week 11 of the NFL. We'll talk some cowboys Of course if we have Edward on the show and break down his favorite bets on the board to get that Podcast right as it is posted Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and make while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well because those do help us out a ton Let's take a look back at last week on the college show and break down what went wrong What went right and then get set for week number 12 Covering the past All right on the week 11 edition of covering the spread for the college football version We had Rufus Peabody of Massey Peabody On to preview the week you can follow Rufus on Twitter at Rufus Peabody and you had Rufus had opposing sides of Minnesota versus Penn State Rufus won the Minnesota side You wanted Penn State minus seven and Minnesota won that game outright But obviously things have changed a lot after that Minnesota game where you mentioned the college football playoff Changing their ranking of Minnesota drastically after that game. What do your numbers say about this Minnesota team? Yeah, well, first of all, I like to say that you know Rufus is again the one person You don't want to be on the opposite side of a side on and yeah, that didn't go well for me, which is not surprising But yeah, so it's a Minnesota definitely went up They were 34th in the the college football rankings that I calculated for members of my site. They're up to 25th Still still not great, but but they're in the top 25. The rating went up almost by two points So definitely a great performance by Minnesota and I think from my perspective. It's simultaneously thinking yes Minnesota so showed me something in that game. But also no, they're they're not a legit Playoff contender and I think that that could allow us to be interested in betting against them If the numbers are still down in Minnesota, they've got momentum or they've got this buzz now They you know, they start in the field or up to eighth in the playoff rankings And maybe that would push us to buy against them that against them The problem is that they're actually underdogs this week they're on the road and facing Iowa as a three-point dog there and I Feel like the market is being kind of smart with Minnesota So they're not really overreacting. I guess I would say what is your impression of what the market has done with Minnesota based in that game? Yeah, I mean the markets are pretty good. You know, my number is is I will buy 4.7 Yeah, so still suggest value with Iowa at home Look, you got I mean think let's think back to that game, right? Yeah, Tanner Morgan Essentially went Phil Sims in the Super Bowl in that game I mean he had a terrific game and partially that was his brilliance partially was the inability of Tariq Castro fields to cover In the in the Penn State secondary So and Penn State definitely did not play their best game. Still a chance to win at the end couldn't get it done That's gonna happen so Yeah, I mean I'm Like I said, I've upgraded Minnesota in my mind, but still not too much And I think like we said last week there were a lot of reasons to be skeptical of Minnesota I Was skeptical that their big playability would continue on offense and it did so That's not always gonna be the case, but I I definitely understand the thought process there But kudos to Rufus for nailing that one too Rufus also mentioned that he was leaning LSU plus six and a half And they won that game outright. That's another good call there by Rufus He said that he bet Oklahoma minus 13, but he was wary of that number because it was at 14 when we talked Oklahoma got out to a pretty big lead in that game, but Brock Purdy our guys coming back He led the comeback train to make it close and cover there Rufus had Hawaii minus seven and a half kind of a tough loss here because Hawaii was up nine with under five minutes left San Jose State scored to make it a two-point game And then Hawaii at the ball back with 151 left. They got a first down They were able to ice that game So bit of a tough loss tough luck loss there a little bit of backdoor cover by San Jose State in that one and finally Rufus mentioned Virginia Tech as a home dog of plus or of two and a half points and they won that game pretty easily 36 or 17 so Rufus was on two or three underdogs who won the game outright So a really good week by Rufus there. Are you watching the end of that Hawaii game? I was not go. No What? No, I'm just so impressed Jim 232 2 30 a.m. Or whatever that must have ended. No, I was up at seven the next morning So I was very much not awake. We like my ability to stay awake is so limited now and we had been up We were at a show at a casino here in near Syracuse On Friday night which meant that my one night where I go to bed after 10 30 had already been expended So there was zero chance But I looked at the box score the next day and saw there was a pretty tough draw there for Rufus But still really good week for Rufus so follow him on Twitter at Rufus Peabody I had the over on Clemson versus NC State at 53 points did follow that one partly because I thought Clemson Could go over by themselves and they did they won that one 55 to 10 It's gonna talk more about Clemson again in covering the future again today because that offense is pretty interesting We'll probably talk about them with regards to the college football playoff too in just one second But first if you want to get in on the action check out the fan dual sportsbook and place your first bet today If you lose fan dual will give you a refund of up to $500 in site credit visit sportsbook.fandall.com more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia or Indiana gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER Let's move forward to week number 12 now of college football But before we do that we want to dive in on Ed's numbers for college basketball how your different models work What all goes into them? We're gonna get a deep dive in college basketball So people can start to bet on that and then we'll talk some week 12 college football as well So let's do that right now with covering the present Covering the present All right, we are now about a week into the college basketball season things got underway last week We've got a couple of games under the belt for each team so far So felt like it was a good time to talk with Ed about his numbers on the power rank and how they work when it comes to college Basketball because Ed has helped me win my brackets I think two or three straight years now over at the number fire staff league So thank you Ed for that so I trust your college basketball numbers a lot personally Which means that I am excited for everyone else to get to hear about them So I want to hear about college basketball and your process behind building your models And I say models plural because you have two So what are the two separate models and what goes into them? Yeah, so I mean a lot of things are pretty much similar to what I do in football One big component is the markets So I take closing point spreads and then I adjust for who you played with the ranking algorithms that I have and Those are called my market rankings. I mean I I have them for college football I have them for the NFL and I do them as well for for for college basketball And it's essentially you know, I mean the market is a good predictor So let's take all that data and let's use it to project forward now obviously things are going to change things are going to shift but that's definitely one component and Then the other thing I do is I have like a game-based estimate of of how good a team is So you take points per possession you adjust first drink the schedule on offense and defense And you get a set of rankings and this is analogous to what Ken Palmer does on his site My algorithm is a little bit different, but the results are usually You know, roughly the same there'll probably be some more differences earlier in the season but you know with what I do in college basketball and What I do with football as well is always a combination of some kind of preseason prior the market rankings and then data from the current season and At what point in the year? Do you start to feel really good about that model and what it says like how much data do you need? Before you start to feel really good about the strength in that model. Yeah, so for college basketball. I have no idea And I tell you that because like I've actually been You know just the evolution of my business like you know It was it was a no-brainer to kind of focus mostly on football as my business There's there's the most betting interest in that and you know Ken Pomeroy was already around as the college basketball guy and and there's just not a Big enough market for college basketball to kind of have more than one player there So my college basketball interest is always focused on March Madness. It's something that There is obviously a lot of interest a lot of public interest and it actually serves It's really good for my business heading into the next football season if you can kind of play that as well Actually, you guys in over fire. I've known that for years so So yes, so so most of the time. I'm usually really busy about With with football right now I end up getting my college basketball numbers rolling like late December early January because I need them for March and You know, the numbers are one component of what I do for college basketball and winning your March Madness pool But a whole another segment of that is is contrarian approach and how to kind of fade the other people in your bracket This is what you you you have used Jim to win the number fire bracket Which which is I definitely count as one of my best accomplishments in life There's that's that should not be an easy pool to win. Oh So and a lot of sharks. Well, and it just warms my heart that you actually listen to me. So oh, yeah, absolutely It's great. I mean like I have no knowledge myself. So I've got to listen to you So so for college basketball like I actually have all my data running right now. We're collecting things I tried to get some rankings for this show and my computer said barf Do this for you in any kind of reasonable bond of time. So I was like, okay, that's fine But you know kind of my approaches And and this goes for football as well Like what I look for is how good each of these models are doing compared to the game results Okay, so I use like a root mean squared estimator So for any one game you look at like how the game actually finished in terms of margin victory and you see how close that was to your actual prediction, right and that's your RMS air and So what I'll do is I'll look at the three components like the preseason prior the market and then the database on this year You track how those things evolve over time because you know I haven't had a chance to go back and look at that historically, but it probably means most to look at it this season You so I found RMS to be like it's it's kind of a pretty smooth predictor in the sense Like if you looked at how the model did against the spread That's going to tend to jump around quite a bit and that doesn't give you as good as smooth a predictor Is is when you look at the root mean squared air So for example when I was talking about success rate and I introduced that into my model I only did that after I knew how good it performed the previous six or seven weeks in college football And it performed really well Which is why I was pretty confident that I could put that in my model Same thing with the with with college basketball as I go forward the next couple of weeks We'll figure out like week by week. How are these each of these predictors changing? Not only does that give a sense of like how well your model is working but it gives you a sense for how much you should wait each one as the season progresses and Yeah, just go go forward from there And I think that right now obviously a lot of this is going to be based on the preseason You know your prior and you know what you thought of a team going into the year What are some of the components there? Is it looking back at what they did the previous year? Is it preseason rankings? You know what goes into your your prior there? Yeah, I don't do it So I like to spend more time on college basketball than I do do that part Yeah, and I trust them to do a good job Okay, but you know, I mean you can also get data from like the preseason polls Yeah, so I've actually done some work to show that you know The preseason polls are a better predictor of tournament performance than the RPI that the committee used to use. Yeah So yeah, you get some data there And you know, I think there's a ton of interest in college basketball these first two months because it's it's beatable Right, the books are focused on football They got a lot of other things going the NBA and betters for a long time have known that College basketball is particularly beatable these first two months of the season, you know just for example, like right angle sports has been has been doing really well in college basketball, especially these first two months and It's it's just hard work, right? Like they know more about these teams than the books do They know about every transfer coming into these these smaller programs and Yeah, so so that's that's I think that's why a lot of people are rightfully interested in college basketball right now That is what's motivating me to get my numbers together earlier for members on my site And yeah, we'll go from there and see how it goes One of the things we talk about a lot with college football is Looking at predictive numbers and numbers we can look at that will tell us what we can expect going forward If you were trying to pinpoint like for a person trying to get into college basketball betting What are some numbers you would look at that can either say? The strength of the team or can spot teams that may be due for positive or negative aggression Yeah, again, you know the first thing you want to understand is points per possession So it's something that adjusts for pace, you know some teams like a North Carolina are gonna play a lot faster than team like Virginia When you look at points per session it accounts for that So that's the first baseline thing and like I mentioned before you know what what I do on my side What can Palmer does takes points per possession adjust for schedule based on offense and defense and goes from there You know the next thing is you look for sources of randomness and One big source of randomness in college but in basketball in general is the three-point shot So can Pomeroy's done a lot of really interesting work to show that you know How a team defends the three in the early part of the season has almost zero ability to predict how they're gonna defend the three Later in the season, right? So we essentially say randomness plays a big role in the three-pointer So one thing you can look for early in the season like let's say you have a team that you like you think they're gonna be strong In their conference, but they're they're doing poorly early in the season But that's because they've given up 50% Field goal percentage from three-point range. You're obviously gonna lose a lot of games if you do that Well, the analytics says that's gonna regress towards the mean and that team is probably a lot better than even their efficiency numbers say And is three points Attempt rate against something that we can is that more sticky like they allow a lot of attempted three-pointers That's what we can look at. Yep, or is that also a bit more random? No, so that's actually pretty sticky way more sticky than you think so the you it is In somewhat predictive for a defense to not allow other teams to shoot three-pointers This was an evolution in Michigan basketball John B line about two or three years ago decided nope We're not we're not gonna mess with a three-point shot We're gonna we're gonna run guys off the line and we're gonna make that a priority and you can see a big evolution in the fraction of field goal attempts they allowed from three But it's also interesting like Virginia has been a great defensive team over the last However many years under Tony Bennett, they'll let you shoot the three Yeah, they've still been great defensively in terms of their efficiency But you know when they have a bad year, it's usually because it just happened to be that teams are shooting better from behind the arc Right interesting and I think that it's it's a fun field to get into as I said I know nothing about it, which is why I'm asking you instead But it's interesting interesting market for sure anything else you'd want to point out As far as early season college basketball stuff anything else that's interesting from your numbers or anything Yeah, I mean I think that basically covers it I mean yeah again like I said, you know, this is a point of year where The more work you do the the more it's gonna pay off, right, right? There's a lot of college basketball teams that they're setting lines for and if you know something about These small schools that are not a lot of other people are studying It could potentially give you a pretty big edge And in general that's a good way to play things because you want to go into markets They're less saturated and less sharp which is why I look a lot at NASCAR because there aren't a ton of people betting NASCAR Because in I think that trying to find things you know the things about sports whether it be a sport a team Etc that the market and the bookmakers may not know as much about it's a really advantageous way to play things And I think that's a definitely something to keep in mind as a better try to find your strengths And if it's different than where the books are strong, that's a good way to play it as well We'll talk plenty more college basketball as the year goes along as we get closer to March and stuff So we'll definitely revisit Ed's numbers then but I also want to talk to you about college football because you actually put a post Up on the power rank. I believe today about last night's college football playoff rankings and some takeaways from that I think the big one that stands out to me yet is Clemson because Clemson was fifth in the first power the first rankings and we basically said it's irrelevant for them because They were someone who's gonna lose LSU Alabama Clemson would probably get their way back into the top four and Clemson's probably not gonna lose before the college football playoff How certain are your numbers that Clemson is going to be a member of that for team playoff? Yeah, they're the most certain about Clemson over any other team is that 88% right now I mean basically they're they're they have Wake Forest They traveled to South Carolina who's playing a freshman at quarterback Who was not supposed to be the starter this year and then they most likely give Virginia in the ACC championship game My numbers would make them an 18-point favorite in that game right now So, you know, you can kind of pencil them in right now I also did a little bit more of a deep dive into their offense and and you know Whether anything's wrong with Trevor Lawrence, you know when I look at their success rate for on passing plays You know, they're and after adjusting for schedule there They're only 45th in the nation which suggests a little bit of a problem, but from up from a lot of other metrics I think things are gonna be fun on that side of the ball for Clemson And you're gonna see them make the playoff and not only that just contend for another national championship, right? So they're benefited from a plus schedule here for sure And it's probably not gonna be a softener schedule to really ding them to the point where they don't make the playoff But they should be pretty pretty firm ground here Minnesota because they did move up to number eight. They were I believe 18 last week But that big win against Penn State obviously a lot more validity toward them from the committee Do you think that Minnesota has a chance to make a run here? Obviously? They don't have the easiest schedule again. They're rode underdogs this week They have to play the very tough Northwestern Wildcats not that far down the line But what do you see with this Minnesota team after what we saw last night? Yeah, I mean it's incredibly unlikely that they make the playoff my numbers put it at 1 in 40 Wow that they make the playoff So yeah, it's gonna be rare and I mean just look at their road, right? They're at Iowa this week I give them a 37% chance to win that game They host Wisconsin and their win probability is gonna be 28% in that game Okay, so I mean if they just win one of those two games, they're gonna win the Big Ten West Which would be a huge accomplishment for that program But then as a one-loss team you're gonna be facing Ohio State right in Big Ten championship game and that's not gonna go well So, I mean, there's just so many hurdles for this team You know, my numbers are a little bit lower in Minnesota than than what Bill Connelly and Rufus Peabody do I'd be interested to see what what Rufus has this week on it But I mean, it's it's not it's not likely that the Golden Gophers are going to the playoff I think Rufus mentioned he had them 13 or somewhere in there last week Yeah, I remember what he said I can look up bills Bill Connelly's but I know I think Rufus that he would they around 13 last week I know that SP plus Bill Connelly's number DSPN is pretty high on their offense specifically I think they were like a 12th somewhere 8th to 12th somewhere in there. So they're pretty high on them But again, I also understand and it's also different discussion We're talking about the playoff because a one-loss Minnesota team Heading into the Big Ten championship game is not gonna finish as a one-loss team most likely. So I think that It makes sense that your numbers are so low on them Another big takeaway that I thought was pretty interesting and you mentioned this in your post too is that the Pac-12 is Actually a pretty good spot. We've got yeah, they've got Oregon at six and Utah at seven both those are one-loss teams and One of them is going to probably be the Pac-12 champion So what do you see about those two teams right now because it looks like at least just based on these rankings They're in a really good spot Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think there's a really good basically if you have a one-loss Pac-12 champion They're in the conversation for the playoff that doesn't mean they're absolutely going to make the playoff Right, but they're certainly in the conversation, right? So they're they're gonna be I mean, who knows what the probability is but I Make assumptions in my model The other thing you have to remember is that you know, Georgia loses They're gonna fall below both those below the Pac-12 champion And then the other thing that we've seen from the committee is that after championship week a team that has Just won a conference championship tends to get a bump over a team that was idle that week So you could see like say Utah beats Oregon, which my numbers would have by you know a point and a half on a neutral site Utah would probably jump over an idle Alabama team And so that's how you're gonna get the Pac-12 champ and a one-loss Pac-12 champ Into the top four and making that and there's about a 75% chance that that the Pac-12 gets a team in Right, I think the the one loser here is Oklahoma They had a tight game with Iowa State this past week. They moved down in the ranking to number 10 I understand why they went down But they have to you know Minnesota's probably gonna fall Penn State will probably fall because they would not be in that in their championship game in the big 10 One of Utah and Oregon will probably fall out of there But Oklahoma has to jump a lot of teams and right they do play Baylor this week and Baylor is a very good football team They are 9-0 they're number 13 in the college football playoff rankings But it looks like a tough road ahead for Oklahoma. What do your numbers say about Oklahoma's odds to make it to the playoff? Yeah, I mean there are 35% so they're kind of in the same boat as kind of Utah and in Oregon You know can they get that bump from the from the conference championship? I mean they may be in a tough situation, but they're in a better situation than Alabama Who is almost certainly not going to the SEC championship game now? Gonna be sitting there idle obviously that that hasn't stopped them from sneaking in the playoff before and winning a national title but They certainly don't control their destiny Oklahoma in some sense does They serve I mean Oklahoma Utah, Oregon They control their destiny to be in the conversation, right? And then who knows yeah No, I mean that's about that's about the only thing that you really can do And I want to say one other thing like I have LSU at 62 percent. That's an underestimate We've often seen the committee take the top team and if they lose a close game only bump them down to fourth Yeah, you know if Georgia, you know kicks a late field goal to beat LSU in the SEC championship game I can see Georgia getting in LSU dropping to fourth having two SEC teams in there So that's a little bit of an underestimate my model could be a little bit better there But I do think LSU is a pretty strong team to make it right now Well, let's stick with Georgia because you mentioned them Let's talk about their game because they are facing Auburn this weekend Georgia a three-point favorite here. The total is 44 and this is Georgia's last chance before the SEC championship game to prove it's worth the their to their work to the committee and It's a tough spot, but they are so also are now up to four if they lose Things are gonna look a whole lot different at the top end of these rankings So how do you see this game playing out between Georgia and Auburn in Alabama? Yeah, I mean my numbers do favor Georgia, but it's it's only seven tenths of a point in their favor so really sees a toss-up game remember Georgia's on the road at Auburn and The the advantage that Auburn has is really in the data from this year So you have to remember that they beat Oregon to open the season that win looks better with every passing week of the season Auburn also has the best defense in the nation by my adjusted success rate and so they're really excelling on on that side of the ball and You know Georgia and Auburn are really tight when you only consider data from the current season. So by points Auburn's a little bit ahead of Georgia when you look at adjusted success rate as a team Georgia's a little bit ahead of Auburn But if you take that estimate It suggests that that are like they're very equal and that the home field should push them Pushed this game in turn in favor of Auburn now Obviously with I also include a little bit of the preseason and a big component from the markets That's what pushes it back towards Georgia and actually makes them a favorite in this game But it should be a really tight game and and we'll we'll see how it goes Is that discrepancy between your numbers and the spread enough for you would have confidence in betting Auburn plus three Or do you think that there is enough Ambiguity here where you'd rather just stay away at this number I mean I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but it's definitely something that I'm I'm interested in I think I think Auburn is a good football team Georgia's Georgia's a great program We always thought of them as kind of the third best program in the nation At least coming into this year. We thought them as a third best program Behind Clemson and Alabama obviously things have shifted around with the emergence of lsu But you know and I think they're a top five program But they're they're also facing a very good team on the road in Auburn I think the biggest advantage Georgia has over Auburn is a quarterback But the problem is that Georgia handcuffs its quarterback basically by I don't I get it's hard to tell it's hard to separate player from system. You know like is Georgia Forcing Jake from to trial these these, you know bunny passes or is it just Jake from Himself doing that right from eight yards per attempt this year. It's down from nine Both as a freshman and as a sophomore His adjust yards per attempt despite throwing only three picks is down to 8.5 It was 10.1 last year And I I wish that they would let him open it up because I feel like this offense could be a lot better if they would But it's hard to assume a deviation in coaching when you have such a large sample on that not happening And it really does mitigate at least in my eyes the one big advantage Georgia has here Yeah, absolutely. Um, this has been talked about a lot and You know, I mean the thing is like this doesn't really seem like the best week to open it up I mean Auburn's defense is excellent So We'll see what they come out with their game plan. You know, I mean, especially being on the road You can see them potentially being a little conservative Right again Sticking with the status quo there. Let's move now to Oklahoma at Baylor and again This one also pretty big from the college football playoff perspective because Baylor, you know still sitting 13th Despite being undefeated, uh, and if they were to beat Oklahoma that obviously be a pretty big boost to their resume But Oklahoma trying to make the playoff too after that loss to k state Oklahoma right now 10 point favorite It is a 67 and a half point total this game is in Baylor And Baylor's won a bunch of tight games this year, but they've remained undefeated Oklahoma gotta flex some muscle So do you think that Oklahoma is good enough to cover a pretty big spread on the road against an undefeated team? Yeah, I mean my numbers think this line is pretty efficient. Uh, they make the number 10.2 points so He certainly wouldn't bet Oklahoma based on my number Uh, what what I see in this Oklahoma team is is that they look good by adjusted success rate They're 18th in the nation that is very high for for this program Obviously didn't really show that last week against Iowa state Um, and they were 16th before that game But you know, my numbers do see a lot of strength on that Oklahoma defense Rufus talked last week about how the markets are undervaluing Oklahoma And I'm sure that's a big component of what his numbers see as well. I know he's he uses success rate So and then on the other side of the ball, you know, Baylor hasn't looked great their last two outings Really should have lost Against could have lost against tcu ended up winning it over time Uh, and didn't look good against probably not a very good west Virginia team So, you know numbers wise, uh, an adjusted success rate. They look pretty good Like 23rd on offense 33rd on defense. So a very strong team Probably not a team that should be undefeated at this point in the season, right? And I talked about charlie brewer as a quarterback going into the west Virginia game and he was part of why I wanted Uh, Baylor minus the points there. I was laying the points and I said, you know, charlie brewer's playing really well And then against tcu a good defense mind you. I don't want to, you know, over blow that He really struggled. Uh, he had 41 pass attempts 195 passing yards and That's not ideal. I guess is the way to phrase that and now he's facing an oklahoma defense that your numbers view is being Pretty legit. Um, any read on the total here? It's a 67 and a half We like the oklahoma defense Baylor's defense has played pretty well too But oklahoma's offense has been awesome. So That total is interesting. I think, uh, what do you what do your numbers say about that one? Yeah, I mean my numbers have been, um On every oklahoma under essentially sorry over what yeah, I can't believe I miss said that Um, they have been on every oklahoma over. I mean, it makes it about 79 points I'm starting to realize like that might be a little bit of an exaggeration. Uh, it's probably shooting a little bit high on that Doesn't I mean they they may still go over. Um, sure But but part of it is is is that you know, when I when I look at that It's looking at my yards for play numbers and oklahoma is really excelling in that statistical category Just because they're breaking so many big plays Um, but obviously Baylor can stop them there It's a whole nother story in terms of where the total in this game is going to end up for sure. So interesting game here I think that it'll tell us a lot a big implications for the playoff as well the georgia opera game So it should be a pretty fun week We're going to talk about a couple more games here in just one second with covering the future But first if you uh want to find the best value in each game You're trying to bet make sure you check out odds fire because Ed and I always preach Searching for the best value in betting on games. Look no further than the new odds comparison Our engineers have cooked up over at numberfire.com odds fire is the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers In the regulated us market compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place Never settle always get the best odds. Check out the experience for free now on number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler. Let's pause for a second year and then come back and take a look at what the numbers say for this week Covering the future All right, Ed. Let's stick with college football here for week number 12 as we shift to covering the future What do you have on your mind for week 12? What's standing out when you look at your numbers for this week's slated games? So it's been it's pretty interesting to look at the spread in michigan state games the the last couple weeks They were 20 point favorite at home against illinois Which they looked like they were going to cover in the first they did cover in the first half until everything Went to crap in in the second half and Illinois came back and somehow won that game And now it has kind of shifted to So before I always kind of thought even without looking at my numbers that that michigan should be about a seven to 10 point favorite in this game So they they started they started out based on that illinois loss They started out as a 14 point michigan started out as a 14 point favorite, which i which i think is crazy My number puts it closer to seven. Yeah, um, I think it's going to be a tough game But then when you look over and look at the total, I think that is where there's Potentially even more value the totals at 44 right now And you're really looking at two programs that have had elite defenses Michigan's defense has still been strong. They're 12th in my adjusted success rates The they've seen a lot of improvement on the defensive line since beginning of the season And this unit is really playing well Michigan states defense is is is an elite unit. They've kind of fallen off a little bit since last year They're they're 13th when I look at adjusted success rate But still a program. Um, that's going to bring it on on the defensive side of the ball and you know, we we we're seeing kind of Offenses for both these teams that are evolving Uh, michigan's state is actually significantly better than they were last year. Uh, brian lawark. He's actually healthy He's making throws like he did two years ago when his shoulder was was healthy. He's a good runner Um, and michigan's offense has gotten a lot better since the beginning of the year too But still 44 points. Um, my number suggests lower and I think that's where the value is in this game Yeah, and I think that it's it's pretty interesting. Um to Look at this game. It sounds like brian lawark. He's probably gonna play Um, despite the concussion against Illinois. So I think that that Ambiguity would also lead towards the under there. Uh, but it does seem like he is probably going to play for this week And you said you like you had it at like a seven point spread right in favor of michigan Yeah, okay But I want to hear your thoughts on the michigan offense because obviously you watch more michigan games and probably most of our listeners I would guess uh in me as well What have been your thoughts on the offense recently because we've had a lot of discussions about them Do you think that what we've seen recently is what we should expect going forward? Yeah, I I think the offense is a work in progress. I mean they had so many high expectations coming into the year And then they were just really terrible at the beginning of the season. Um, they couldn't do anything right Just got smashed by Wisconsin And then you saw improvement, uh, they they threw the ball really well against ruckers I know it's ruckers, but that was progress For for the unit, but you could still see that the run game was really struggling kind of through those middle games Now the run game has really come along in the last couple games. They are they're running the ball Uh, really well and they were able to continue that against maryland But then the passing game was was I mean literally terrible against maryland. Um, they They were only able they were successful successful on about 30 of their plays It didn't look as bad because they they had a couple of uh deep shots That they were able to convert so it didn't look at quite as bad from yards for pass attempt perspective But that was not a good game for michigan's pass offense. So I would say it's still a work in progress Uh, and and I mean it just gets so much tougher against the michigan state defense That's going to bring one of the best defensive lines in the country into this game And like I said, they haven't played as well as they did last year But I still expect a lot from from the michigan state defense And if you expect michigan to run the football more and run the ball effectively that does also lend itself towards an under So I think that makes sense with the under there as 34 points But I don't know if they're going to be able to run the ball That's true. I mean so You know, like, I mean their best bet is probably to air out with patterson and and he can sort of do that Um, but you know the the passing game is is a work in progress I mean, I think after the maryland game a lot of people in an arbor are more optimistic about the run game Which was literally like dreadful three games ago, right? So so it's a work in progress. We'll see it's it's been a it's been a great soap opera this year It's been fun to have you like on this show though because like I can't understand them You understand them better than I do. I think that we're both a little confused about them But like you still have a better grasp on them than I do. I would be very confused if I didn't get to talk to you each week Sounds good. I'm glad I can help. Yeah, absolutely One offense that I don't find quite as confusing is Clemson I want to talk about them for my cover in the future because last week I like the over on Clemson and I want it over again. I there it's a 59 and a half right now against wake forest and wake forest is a team that Tends to play well towards overs because they're a pretty up tempo Team here they average the second most plays per game across college football And they do operate a bit more slowly on the road, which makes sense You know you want to increase the variance decrease the sample size When you are on the road, but it's still 73 plays per game when they're on the road I think it's like 90 when they're at home Which is just kind of nuts and this game is on the road in Clemson and they did just lose their stud receiver sage sarat Which is down great for the offense down great for the over here, but Their quarterback Jamie Newman has been pretty good this year. He is healthy once again He has average 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt He is a dynamic runner as well, which is a plus and I don't think this is a spot where wake forest offense gets totally blanked Even while respecting this Clemson defense law, I respect them a lot But I still think Clemson should score, you know a couple touchdowns or so here Which bodes well because I think Clemson's offense is going to do a lot of work here once again We're up to a five game sample now since Clemson had their buy in early october and the reason that I want to focus on that Is because they had the injuries To Justin Ross They had a couple more injuries earlier in the year as well I think Amari Rogers was hurt Trevor Lawrence apparently had a shoulder injury too But since that buy they've had five games and they've averaged 52.6 points per game in that time And their games have averaged 63.6 points per game Trevor Lawrence individually his adjusted yards per attempt is up to 11.5 in that five game sample And number of fire projects Clemson to score 49.3 points here Which means we need 11 out of wake forest for the over to hits and the number of fire algorithms have it hitting the over 71 percent of the time so I think that's a pretty good number for me Again, it's a 59 and a half right now as they face wake forest forest It's not A ton of faith in the wake forest offense for me. It's more so I think that they will score something and then Clemson can do the rest themselves Uh and hit the over here on 59 and a half points, but ed we've talked about this Clemson offense and I understand the Concerns that success rate has But I guess for me I want to focus more on the recent sample I also understand that that's dangerous though. So what do your numbers say about Clemson as a whole offensively? Yeah, I mean, I'm going to focus less on my numbers and what uh, Eric Eager was able to give me at pff so Trevor Lawrence actually grades out better this year than he did last year in terms of the passing grade And I I think that's interesting. I mean that suggests that there there shouldn't really be much of a drop off This is the same guy that came in and and really revitalized that offense after four games last year Took him all the way to the national title Um, and those pff grades suggest that that he should be capable of doing that again this year and leading a very dynamic offense Yeah, for sure. And I think we've seen Some of that start to come together recently, uh, which I think is interesting here I think that this Clemson team is just better than they were playing earlier in the year. So I I to my detriment sometimes enjoy looking at small samples when I believe there is a reason to believe the full sample is tainted And I think that may be the case here with Clemson Given the fact that they You know, like as you've mentioned Dabo likes to get his guys in there early in the year and there were some injuries too So I think there is value in small samples when I think the small sample is more relevant I think that's the case here with Clemson. So I do want the over here on 59 and a half against wake forest That's all we have for college football today yet. Anything else you want to to pump out there anything Going on outside of sports right now that you want to talk about or anything Yeah, I mean definitely check out the football analytics show this week. Uh, there's both an audio and written version of My results from the the college football playoff. We did talk about a lot of that on this show Um, but if you want to have if you want to listen to the whole thing, it's out there Uh, and then uh, I don't know. It's been a busy week. There hasn't been much time for Too much stuff outside of a football. So Tuesdays towards the weekend Tuesdays are my one night of the week where I don't have a lot going So I actually watched two television shows last night. Um, Have you read his dark materials the philip pulman novels? They might they were probably out like they're they were very much young adult novels when I was a young adult So they probably didn't hit your demographic. Uh, but do you ever hear those or read those? Okay, they're pretty interesting, uh, but it's an hbo show now um, and It's not bad. Uh, I would say it might be pretty confusing if you did not read the books, but It's pretty fun. We've also been watching watchmen, uh, which is now a show on hbo. That's been pretty good too. So I my Tuesdays are cherished is what I would say. Did you read watchmen as a? I should have I didn't I had a friend who was super into it. So like we saw the movie Uh, when it came out the movie Lacked in a lot of areas. Uh, I guess it's the generous way to put that But I've actually never read a graphic novel ever interesting. I would be interested in them, but I just I just haven't so yeah, watchmen's it's fascinating to me because uh So we really got into the marvel movies last year Uh, watched all of them and then I read a book called slugfest Which was about the rivalry between marvel and and dc And and essentially dc was kind of kicking their butt and then in the 60s Like marvel really took off with spider man and the fantastic four And that that uh persisted for a lot of years and washman was kind of dc's response to that They're like, oh wait, maybe we should actually write good stories So I think in the 80s. That's what happened with watchmen. I mean, I personally never read it But I thought the the the battle between the two comic book was pretty interesting and it was also when um You know, they started to do these money grabs with these like big launches of graphic novels, which inherently is not a bad idea But you know instead of doing Episode a week or or comic book a week. They started doing I think bigger launches And I think watchmen was part of that if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, the show is pretty good I've enjoyed it a lot. I like it more than the movie. So if you could board check that out It's uh, it's an HBO show, but it's it's pretty fun. Um, I think I'll probably be binging the marvel movies At some point again soon. Like I know that they're not nice. What's that? I've seen most of them I think um, but disney plus just came out and we have that so I know about all of them. Yeah You want pandalorian? No, I haven't uh, so confession. I have not seen all the star wars movies. What? Um, it's the prequels though. I've seen I've seen only one of the prequels I have not seen the other two and I think I've been told that's okay No, I don't need to see that. Okay. Well, this is this is this is my hot take that's going to make 90% of the people listening to this hate me. Um episode three is my favorite star wars movie Interesting it ties everything together. Okay. Um revenge of the sith This is a very very unpopular opinion I don't think episode one is particularly good, but two and three are Those are the two I haven't seen so I've enjoyed the like the newer ones. I thought I think those have been fun. Um, they're like I just never got that into any of them. Um, so I probably I don't even know if I'll watch the mandalorian I think my fiance wants to watch them but like Yeah, there's no more great British bakeoff for her to watch Maybe she can watch that instead of that and I'll just kind of like that ended Yeah, so she can sit and watch the mandalorian and I'll like do work or something and like hang out but Um, as opposed to not paying attention to great British bakeoff, which is a fun show too But um, yeah, I can't yeah, I don't know if I'm getting this disney plus Yeah, no, I'm not ready to commit to that It I will say it's nice to be able to just like pop on iron man whenever I feel like it. So oh, that is a good movie Yeah, so like that's been enjoyable, but I don't know it's I'm getting stretched pretty thin With paying all the for these things So, uh, we'll see how much further I can go but I did I did splurge here So I guess I'll be doing that later today as well That is all we have for today. Again, don't forget to subscribe to Ed's newsletter Go to the powerank.com to sign up for that and find Ed on twitter at the power rank I am at Jim Sonnis j i m s a n n e s we have a dfs podcast for nfl week 11 Coming out tomorrow morning on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed And also our week 11 nfl preview from a betting perspective with edward egros will be up here On the covering the spread podcast feed find that wherever you can get your podcast and while you're there Please leave a rating and review as well big Thank you to calvin thea ball for one of the videos side of things for today as always and chopping up these clips for The at fandral twitter account. Thank you cal and thank you everyone For tuning in for today for this episode of covering the spread Good luck with your college football bets and those college basketball ones as well And we'll talk to you again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network