 Okay, very good morning, happy Friday, happy NFP day. And just to say, if you're watching this on YouTube, don't forget to hit that subscribe button, hit the bell icon when you can, and you'll be notified because I'll be going live to cover non-farm payrolls from 1.15. So 15 minutes before the data hits, later on today, I'll do a full rundown. I'll cover the release as it happens and look to analyze it in real time. So yeah, love to have you on board. Plenty of questions, I'm sure, get them in and I look forward to seeing you guys online. But straight to it, let's have a quick review then of what to expect. I will go over it, I've seen a much more detail during that live session, but just wanted to give you a flavor of the type of things that we're looking at this morning and an overview for payrolls of what we can expect because there's a few things to be aware of. So first off, the close on Wall Street. And here we are, record highs again. So the S&P finished up six tenths. The Dow and NASDAQ 100 were up both respectively 0.78%. So as you can see here in these major US index futures, the NASDAQ 100 getting a little ramp into the close, the final half an hour of trade, just pushing us up and then into the electronic trading hours, just peaking there before finding a bit of consolidation ahead of the payroll report. Similar kind of case with the S&P. We had that trend line on from earlier this week going back to last Thursday. We failed to really break through that through most of the session yesterday, but then into that final half an hour, real strong breakout on the upside and taking us back to that retest back to the all-time high levels and in fact, just peaking its head above it last night. They've fade after that strong bid that we're seeing into the close, which is not unusual. And then we've kind of drifted back up again in close proximity to those highs going through the latter part of the Asian session. And that despite generally a little bit of a softer tone overnight in Asia, nothing too dramatic, nothing major on the Chinese front to report in regard to what we had been seeing over the course of the last two weeks or so. Usual situation now, it's kind of just sitting and waiting and being patient and waiting for the jobs report to really dictate proceedings for how the end of the week will look. Elsewhere though, T-notes, yields continue to rise. And of course, we kind of peeked out here. This was ADP on the rise and then the Claredo-Horkish comments in combination with the ISM services PMI that we had. And we've just continued that move now and we've backed off back down toward the levels we were trading last Friday. So yeah, you know, despite COVID, which we'll talk about in America is still causing a degree of issue. And at this point in time, a deteriorating situation, yield still on the front foot, just following some of those latter developments that we've had this week. But I do think, and I will talk about in a moment, this market positioning is quite key for determining the price reaction later when we do get payrolls hit. Elsewhere as well, oil. I was just having a quick look at that this morning. And I think it's quite important to look at it in context because obviously oil's seen, I think it's actually from a weekly performance, one of the worst weeks that WTI crude has had this year, in fact. And that of course coming on the back of the just continued situation on COVID and what we're seeing globally. We've been tracking Australia, Japan, US. And so there has been a recalibration of sorts on the outlook for the rest of the second half of the year, somewhat then moderated by the fact that we had that recent latest US GDP figure last week, which was showing that, you know, compared to where we were a few months ago, where we were looking at very strong growth that has been tempered somewhat by the persistency of COVID and the fact that, you know, this is very much a global issue. And there's quite a lot of disconnect between countries like the UK, for example, comparative to particularly a lot of underdeveloped countries. And that just keeps them, things like the Delta variant, kind of in full circulation at the moment. So oil though, you know, when we've seen a market sell off to this degree, and so we've gone from a 74 hand or down to really 67 over the course of the last week or so, finding a bit of some buyers coming in down at these lower levels. We've had here this morning a little bit of an extension on the move higher on the recovery through, as you can see, these previous areas on that load that we printed earlier in the week. Again, on some resistance on initial push through about back on this was Tuesday and then yesterday's price action, that same point of resistance. So yeah, a bit of a break, nice classic long entry there actually on the push up. And so we're up about 50 cents or so this morning, just moving back into around 69, 50 type area. On the upside, 70 bucks, quite interesting. Again, a previous point of technical support before the breakdown in price that we saw on Wednesday. As well, if you draw a fib retracement from last Friday's high to the low of the week, comes in at roughly around the same type of price level. So worth keeping that in mind as well. FX markets, relatively quiet, but we did see a decent dollar bid into the late US trading hours. Asia packets faded a little bit, but that does mean that both major pairs are in just moderate negative territory here, top left, Euro dollar and cable down around 11 pips each, respectively. The DAX just quick word on the DAX because technically as well, it's up about 26 points this morning, that in sympathy with the higher close on Wall Street, but on the daily chart, it is worth keeping in mind here, we are knocking on that door again as per the US indices on these record high levels. And so again, how payrolls comes out, we'll likely dictate whether or not that level's gonna hold today. So the daily close would be quite interesting to see how things finish up there for the German stock index. All right, well, let's talk about payrolls. Because as I said, there's a few, there's a top level thing I want you to be aware of, essentially, then we'll talk a little bit about market reaction. But as I said, I'm not gonna go into great depth right now. If you do want to go into and do some preparation yourself, then just check out my Twitter handle. I did share my morning notes, which cover things with a little bit more information. But essentially, what we're looking at for here is the headline expectation is for 870,000. So this would be another fairly robust figure following on from last month and what had been then as kind of an improving situation overall, which is kind of what we're anticipating going forward and further economic improvements. The unemployment rate is expected to dip. So we're looking for a 5.7% number from the previous 5.9%. Now, in terms of, well, really two things. First, how has the pre-employment reports that are used as a precursor to try and better and more accurately define our expectations for payrolls look like? Well, generally fairly positive. I mean, from an ISM point of view, these figures have been quite strong. The employment constituents in both readings have seen a decent move. And so the employment section of the US main service sector survey recovered in July back into expansionary territory after dipping through that in the prior month. The manufacturing sets of US economy is also back on positive territory at 52.9, recovering from a contraction activity in June. So those quite closely followed ones have been pretty decent. On the flip side though, the one that hasn't lived up in the same positive fashion has been ADP. We remember early in the week that came in 330,000. That was well far below analyst expectations of pretty much 700K. However, beyond these data points, there's kind of a more important thing, I think, to be aware of, which is the second point, which is the impact of technical reasons. And what I mean by that are seasonal adjustments around really two main areas that could well give an upside boost to the numbers, which if you eliminate out the seasonal rationale behind that, the number might not be as good as then a topside surprise might suggest. And that's an important factor to determine when you might get a big explosive reaction in a positive fashion in an asset price, only then to fade quite quickly when people say, well, it's only strong because of XYZ, which is not a sustainable factor or truly reflecting the underlying employment situation. Now, what these things are, are basically shifts in seasonal employment at schools caused by the pandemic, which could mask some softening and underlying labor market conditions as the boost from fiscal stimulus and the economy's reopening fades. So what they're talking about here is, and I'm just gonna bring it up. So prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, education employment normally declined by about 1 million jobs in July as schools closed, while as well, temporary plant shutdowns for the summer retooling has also typically weighed on automobile payrolls. So two key sections here, automobile employment and also schooling. But this year, of course, because of the disruptions that we've had because of the pandemic, there's a lot of summer schooling as students trying to catch up, particularly now going from a virtual to back into in-person format as well. So those teachers, if you like, being kept employed rather than kind of dropping out of the calculation in that respect. The other thing is, is chip shortages that we're fully aware of, that's been a key component, of course, that's really fueled used car prices and really added to that upside inflationary pressures we've been seeing in the US. That's because chip shortages obviously has impacted on the ability to manufacture new automobiles. Well, that has also meant those chip shortages that a number of these automakers have had to change their normal production schedules. Now, that could have an impact on the timing of temporary retooling shutdowns, which could throw off the models that the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the payroll's data. There's also some seasonal factors that are also expected to boost the leisure and hospitality jobs as well in this particular report. So with all this being said, the main thing I'm mindful of is, in short, the knee jerk reaction, particularly to an upside number to not just hit it thinking, wow, this is really strong because the move might get faded quite quickly if it's evident that a lot of the strength in that report has come from these areas. The other thing, though, means is that typically then, looking at these technical reasons, the number should be an upside surprise, if anything, on the balance. So if we get a low number, and that's even with all of these additions, well, then the underlying conditions are pretty bad. And if you think about a Fed member like Waller, who's joined the likes of Bullard and Kaplan and really been banging the hawkish drum about potentially tapering as early as October, remember he said it's conditional. It's conditional on seeing the next two consecutive strong jobs reports. And obviously a downside number kind of eradicates that being a valid statement that he would follow through with that type of hawkish commitment. So in that scenario, I mean, one thing is when I'm talking this through, I'm thinking, okay, so in that scenario, he puts off tapering and the hawks have to kind of come back a little bit. Well, perhaps that's good for equities, but then if the number's good, I don't think that really deviates too much from the schedule where we've got Jackson Hole at the end of the month, and that was always tabled and penciled in, is when they were gonna talk about tapering anyway. We're almost there. And so again, we get a good number. Is that just good for equities again? So it could well be one of those where either way, it could be a good result to that respect. But one thing I'm mindful of, of course, is that equities are sat at a stretch point of being at its record high, but that doesn't mean we can't punch higher, of course. From a yield perspective, again, I do think that that's quite interesting because of the move that I mentioned. Yields have increased over the last 24 hours or so. So teen oats have gone from really a 135, 14 price down to 134.07 or so at the low. So a downside surprise definitely gives this market a bit of room for a snapback higher at the moment because I think it's kind of positioned more for an incandescent type view. So more like an 850, 900 type million print today. Anything short of that ADP rerun, we might see some upside there. And obviously given the dollar bid that we saw late into yesterday's session, there's room for that to come under some pressure, which obviously is gonna support the major pairs as well. So yeah, that's payrolls. I mean, hopefully makes sense, but as I said, you can check out my notes and otherwise I'll cover everything again in more detail at the live event. A few other things that I wanted to share and quickly talk about and to start with gonna talk about COVID and gonna focus on the US this time and daily new COVID-19 cases have climbed to a six month high in the US with more than 100,000 infections reported nationwide, all very much driven by the Delta variant as we know. The seven day average of new reported cases has reached nearly 95,000. And to put that in a bit of context, that's a five fold increase in less than one month for the US. Florida, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi account for half of the country's new cases and hospitalizations in the last week. And a lot of those specific areas starts then going to how vaccinated people are on a state by state basis. And that obviously political evidence that shows then that a lot of these states, more Republican leaning have had a lesser take up of the vaccines and therefore the spread of the virus has been much more evident and thus hospitalizations as well. What this is resulting in is although some of the big Wall Street banks continue to kind of, those old school guys like Solomon at Goldman's or Jamie Dimon and so forth continue to kind of drag people back to the office. It's becoming a little bit problematic now at these levels, particularly in New York, obviously highly populous and there's been reports. I think it was in JP's office where people who are even, you have to be vaccinated to go to work, but even those guys are passing it on and so forth. Elsewhere Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Amazon have all announced yesterday they're delaying plans for staff to come back to the office. I think Amazon is probably the most cautious with that. I don't think, I think what I read this morning is that they're saying to people, we're not even going to have people back until January next year and then they'll revisit and see what the situation is. So yeah, definitely perhaps the return to normality as we've seen the kind of slight adjustment in markets perception about the second half of this year is becoming a little bit more true at this point in terms of the lingering effects of the fact that this Delta variant is still very much present. Otherwise, the other thing to be aware of and it's something that's been kind of dragging its heels but I think that's pretty much as you really expect is the US Senate, they were unable to finalize our $1 trillion infrastructure bill yesterday, unsurprisingly and they'll try again on Saturday when it's scheduled to hold a vote on limiting debate and moving toward passage of the Hartford legislation. The Senate is trying to wrap this up, of course, ahead of the scheduled five week summer recess which is supposed to start next week. The House has already begun its summer recess. So if you think about it, this pushes us all the way into like pretty much mid-September and of course, given now the reinitiation of the debt ceiling rules in the US, this is getting ever closer to putting your feet on the fire now toward a potential talking government shut down again and I have no doubt that now looking at this and given the summer recess, that politicians will use that as leverage to try and reshape some of the deal, I'm sure, before it comes down to the wire on the debt ceiling side and this deal gets over the line. For the moment, is this a risk to markets? No, I don't think so. There's just bigger things in focus right now, specifically today with payrolls but also the timing on tapering, the COVID situation, this infrastructure bill I think is just a bit of a side point for now, at least. And that is pretty much all I wanted to cover at the moment. So this morning, as is always the case, it's a pretty light calendar for the UK European mornings. So main thing if you are trading this and you're new to this environment, not the time to be going gun hoe, it's really the time to be just patient, disciplined, sit on your hands and wait until this afternoon. The data obviously all coming out at 1.30, it's alongside some jobs data out of Canada as well but obviously the US numbers will take precedence across the macro global environment. From a speaker point of view, Bank of England is broadband, following the BOE decision yesterday, speaking just after midday and that is it. So yeah, don't forget to subscribe to the channel and hopefully I'll see you online live later. Also, don't forget to check out. Piers and I have got a slot, I think, at 5 p.m. today. So hopefully we'll be able to talk about payroll, what happened, what does it mean, implications, so on and so forth and we'll wrap up some of the highlights of the week in that podcast. So just search for market watch from Amplify on Spotify, Apple and so forth. And yeah, I'll see you later. All right, thanks very much guys.