 of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, Larry Pezzavento. Okay, looking good. Billy Ray feeling good, Lewis. I posted the chart here that we were looking at yesterday. And if you remember, we were looking for a 382 retracement in the S&P up there at 44.42. We got to 44.43. And then we went down and we went all the way down to 40.01, I believe today. And then we've rallied back another 382 retracement. If we get above 44.25, folks, that's where we will be taking profits. Maybe we'll be stopped out of that trade, because that was the 382 of the last move. And we know this market has still been bullish. And we could have the Fed speaking like they've been speaking all day. I heard that they were on, but I don't listen to that stuff. It's almost as bad. Well, politics is the worst. The Fed stuff is second worst. But anyway, that's what we're doing. We had a really good trade in the short gold market. Also, we had a really nice trade in natural gas. It worked out right at the old 382 level, which was good. So those were been acting relatively well. I wanted to take a moment to bring up the chart here of, oh, there's too many things I want to do. And our guest today is Bill Meridian. And we want to see what he's got to say, here, what he has to say, because he is really good. Cycles research in Austria. Here is the soybean oil, folks. It's down the limit. It's 40. Jimmy Tourneyman called me about a half hour ago saying there were 48,000 contracts in a selling pool. Evidently, the government came out sometime today and made an announcement. What it is, I don't know. I had him contact Rich Anderson. Rich is very busy today, probably because of this. So this is going to shake up the soybean market. But folks, stop and think about this. We're in the middle of a drought. And soybeans are up 35 cents on the day. Corn's up 20 cents. Wheat's up. You remember wheat? Remember wheat back there at $6 when nobody wants it? Now it's 770, folks. Hello, operator. I mean, there's got to be something to these patterns that we work with for heaven's sakes. Pay close attention to it. The reason why this soybean oil is so important, folks. Soybeans became available here back in the 30s because Henry Ford wanted to be able to paint cars in color other than black. They were using lacquer. Lacquer is related to insects and I don't know what all that stuff is. But they needed an oil that could accept color. And the Chinese had a product called soybeans. And so he imported soybeans sometime in the 20s and stuff that became popular in 35. What they were doing with soybeans to start up with, folks, they would plow the field over. In other words, they would grow soybeans in one field and then plow it over and use it as fertilizer for the corn coming up. I remember I lived in. It tarred Indiana. It's one of the big soybean areas of the United States. I saw it all the time. Anyway, they were able to get soybean oil mainly for paint. And then someone figured out, my gosh, they could make this synthetic for margarine. Those of you that are young don't remember this. When I was a little shaver, we had to go to the store. You bought margarine in your tub from Wisconsin or wherever it was. It was a synthetic margarine. And not only that, it had to be white. That was part of the rules. And what you had to do is you had to take this little tube of dye, yellow dye, and you mixed it together to make it look like butter. Well, the margarine people got a little upset with that. And then they finally figured out that they could all work together. And it's still pretty much at this day. I'm still a aficionado of butter being an Italian that I am. And so anyway, that's why all this stuff is so interesting to me is because one little stroke of a pen, the government can change a whole lot of things. Folks, that's why you've got to be able to be able to put stops in. Honest to God. It's really, really important because if you don't, you're exposing yourself to risk that is just totally, totally unacceptable. And you don't want to do that. That's just not worth it. Okay. Now, I want to share a really neat chart with you today because very important, something happened in silver today. Remember, folks, just a second, we'll get up here. We were just trading here just a few days ago up at 2560. And we dropped $2 an ounce here in the last few days. And I want to show you the bottom in silver today, folks. This bottom right here was right at the exact 1.618 expansion. It hit it exactly at 2251. It rallied up to 2281. Haven't checked it lately, but it stopped exactly at that 1.618. Look how it stopped right at the 78% level here. It rallies up to the 78% level here. And then look at the big move down. And then it just keeps going down. And now we've hit a major bottom. We really need to watch the silver. Now, we were short gold today and gold took out the old lows at 1936. We got out of it around 1940. It's trading in 1941 now, but we sold it in 1968. So that was a very nice move that we had also. And we are now waiting to see what the next move is going to be in the stocks. What we're assuming we're going to have happen is we're going to be looking for that ABCD pattern that we like so much. Now, let's take a look at the big daddy rabbit here, which is the NASDAQ. This is going back to the high that we made back here on last Friday. Remember, the whole world was bullish back there. And well, there were a couple that weren't that bullish. But anyway, there's your high right up in here. There was your 382 retracement. You can see it hit it 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 70 times. And then today we came down and broke pretty badly down into this area here. I don't know whether we took out the low here in the NASDAQ. I didn't check that. I probably should have, but I didn't quite get that done. I'm just the excitement of having Bill Meridian here today. We haven't had him on for a couple of weeks. And he's been calling for some really big moves. He alerted to us the fact that these bonds were getting ready to go lower, i.e. higher interest rates. And that is certainly what's going on. So he'll be with us here coming up at the break. And we want to be able to see that. I want to remember, folks, I look at these patterns. I got to show you this pattern. To me, this is the most important pattern of all. This is this S&P with the, it weights the market with those, the Magnificent 7. The dark lines are the Magnificent 7. Down here is the S&P 500. We have never seen anything like this with divergence like this, with seven stocks doing this. But look at that. There's a three drive to a top pattern, folks. And I know these fail all the time. But what if it doesn't fail? What if this is something really big? This means that these stocks are going to be probably getting to a little bit of a trouble. Also, when we come back before the break, when we have Bill on, I have to show you the chart of Tesla. Because about two months ago, we were mentioning that Tesla should go to around 272 to 273. And I think the high today was 276. I'm going to post that when we come back from the break here. Because I want to show you that there's another perfect example of how some of these numbers, you know, really line up. So let's take a break here. We'll be back with Bill Meridian of Cycles Research. So stay with us. 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Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. Okay, we're back folks. It was a great deal of pleasure. I've been announcing that we have Bill Meridian in the house. Bill, how are you doing? Can you hear me well? You guys, it's just like you're sitting right next to me, pal. It's just coming in perfectly. Okay, you want to go ahead and start? June 21, the summary, we're in a shallow correction followed by a further rally, which I'll explain. One good rally is needed to turn the bears to bulls, which I'll explain. Bonds, I think, are lower. Gold, higher prices after June oil is likely down. So the pessimism that had sparked the rally has been dissipating bearish short-term but bullish longer-term. So the cycle sort of punked out in April-May. The market has held up because there were too many people looking for a decline and sentiment is very tricky. There are a number of ways to measure it. Fortunately, I knew Paul McGray Montgomery, who was one of the great masters of sentiment along with a few other people. And what I concluded was in order to dissipate the sentiment, which was bearish, which using contrary opinion is bullish, you had to have a rally. And so we're in that rally now. And suddenly, as you'll see, some of the sentiment indicators have turned up to getting more bullish. In the past, that has been bearish short-term but bullish long-term. So I hope that's understandable. So the big cap leaders are likely to remain strong. The lagging stocks are now picking up. Those are the stocks in the S&P 400, 600, the value line index, and the S&P equally weighted index. The relative strength of all of them started to turn up about two weeks ago. In other words, they're not going straight down. And the big cap stocks are not the only ones appreciating in the index. Those stocks have gotten extended a bit expensive. And so now fund managers are looking elsewhere and they're starting to bid up stocks that are small cap and mid cap. And here's the S&P daily. I don't think yesterday's close is in there. But as we'll see, we are now in post-OPEX week, post-Option-Expiration week in June, which has traditionally been bearish. But we lost one day. We had a holiday Monday. And I do not expect stocks to come down any much lower than that. That's a Fibonacci retracement line. That's an old support line from a previous high or low. I don't really think it'll come down much lower than 43, 25 or so. If it does, it'll stop then at 4,200. But I don't think that's going to happen. And as you can see yesterday, the S&P was off 40, but closed down only about 15 or 20. And if you look, until today, the technology stocks actually with Tesla and other stocks were actually up. The market is overbought. That is an oscillator based on momentum that I've used for years. So it was overbought as we were in early April. And here is the 10-day breadth MA moving average. In other words, advances minus declines, taken as a 10-day moving average, which has been a fairly reliable indicator. But as you can see, it's up about as high as it was in late March. So it's not up where it was in early 2023. But it's no longer that series of higher lows was a buy signal. And you'll notice that's come down fairly sharply here. So it is overbought, but not too overbought, which would lead to a major correction. And here again, we'll just review the one for 10-year cycles. Of course, the one-year cycle is just the average cycle for the year. And of course, we're in June, which is usually weak. And the four-year cycle is the election year cycle, which peaks in late June and turns down. But they call it the election year cycle. But again, as I pointed out many times before, before we had the Federal Reserve in 1913, we had a four-year cycle. We have a four-year cycle in countries in which there's a four-year election cycle, six years and no elections at all. There is a four-year cycle, which actually measures out to about 3.84 years. And down here, we can see the average of all four of these. So it doesn't really signal any trouble until we get to September. Now, this is the dynamic. These cycles are what I would call static. They change slowly. This is dynamic. This is based upon... What's the difference in that, Bill? How do you figure the... Well, the static changes very slowly over time. The one-year cycle is probably not going to change over the next 20, 30 years. You need some significant variation from that. And the green is... I forgot to mention the 10-year cycle, the decennial pattern of Edgar Lawrence Smith, which, as you can see, is pointing down. That changes very slowly. This was just run this morning. That is based upon the latest data. And you see a buy signal. You see a sell signal. The only problem with this is, I have to tell you, only 58% of the sell signals in the last year have been valid. So that is why I'm not looking for a sharp decline this month. The last two weeks of June are usually weak. That is a static cycle. We confirm it with this, the dynamic cycle, but it's only been right 58% of the time in the last year, which means it is probably a shallow correction based only in the technology stocks. So now we go to this week in June. Monday, the market was closed. Tuesday we were open, and today is Wednesday. And as you can see, the weakest day is Friday. So post-OPEX week in June, as you can see down here, that's $100 invested. More or less, you start with $100, you end with $100. But these weeks, if it's triple option expiration, which only occurs four times a year, it is down four to five times more than it's been up. So in other words, it's not only the expiration in stocks, it's the expiration of a couple of other instruments, a couple of the markets. So it is triple witching, because four times a year it is especially bearish. So this is not as bearish as it should look. Now the S&P 100, here's the big change. The S&P 100 is the 100 largest cap stocks. And you see here, we got a little reversal here. This is only a daily chart, so it's not the end of the world. And it doesn't include yesterday, but it's overbought, yes. And you note the relative strength here started to come down, it started to recover. Let's go, this is the S&P 500 equally weighted. So in other words, since all 2023, if you equally weight the stocks, the relative strength is going down, which means most stocks are going down, and it's a few very large cap stocks holding the market up. And as you can see, it too is overbought. So now we go, this is weekly, and you'll see what's happening. You're forming a big triangle, which we know a breakout from there is bullish, and you see higher lows in momentum. And you see the, so we're going from daily here to weekly, so that relative strength upturn does not look like much at all. But you can see how much the average stock has underperformed quite dramatically. And somebody came on Fox Business News the other day and said the average stock this year is up 1%, if you take out the big leaders. The S&P 600 is firming up. This is the small cap stocks. Note, in June, at least they've stopped declining relative to the S&P 500. So not only are they up in absolute sense, they're up in the relative sense. And here's what I meant about the sentiment. Are you more likely to increase the decrease cycle exposure over the coming day? Excuse me. We've got to, we've got to pay a few bills, my friends. Stay with us. Okay. We'll be right back with Bill Meridian, folks. Cycles research. The gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. 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You then look for a technical confirmation and a technical confirmation of sell signals in March and April would have been excessive optimism, which we didn't have. And I also just want to jump back. I think a lot of pessimism is back here. If we can find the is the 100. Why would people only buy the 100 biggest cap stocks? You see the green line? That's the relative strength versus the S&P 500. They do that because the economy doesn't look good. The politics don't look good. The weather doesn't look good. I don't know. They get frightened. So they only buy the biggest best stocks. And this was a mentality. You know, I fought when I was in Abu Dhabi, you get young guys coming in. They don't want to make a mistake. And in that coach, you don't want to lose face. If Morgan Stanley recommends a stock, you say, well, Morgan Stanley recommended it or Dolvin Sack's record. Oh, well, you know, we forgive you, you know, we won't, we won't throw you off the ship here, because they recommended it. It's not your fault. And so if you, as I talked to, I remember talking to Ralph Ackampore, I talked to young fund managers, what do they do? They go out and buy more of the winners. We're still winning and they're big caps, so they're safe. So I maintained that that green rising line is a sign of fear. It's we're buying these stocks and not these stocks. You see the declining green line. We're a little afraid of the average stock. So that makes sense. I agree with that too. So here we are, still too bearish. Now let's go to the next one. Now last time, let me just jump up here. One month ago, I was on your show, Larry, I recommended applied materials, which rose 9%, micron, which dropped to 2%, Nvidia, which was up 40%, and Meta, which was up 16%. The Nasdaq 100, from which these came, was up 9%. So the net gain here was about 15, 16%, as opposed to the benchmark nine. This comes from this screen. The seasonal rank, if I run it now, it is looking at the seasonal rank for next month. So in other words, I can never pronounce it as at very risk. They do data analytics for the insurance industry. They're ranked number two for the month of July in the Nasdaq 100. But their current relative strength rank is 11. And so we add the two together, divide by two. I used to check one, check the other, then I had the coding guys do this. Fiserv, which is a software company, seasonal rank is seven, relative rank, QLD, I don't know who that is. Amgen, I'm sure you've heard of Amgen, Sintas, AVGO is Broadcom. They're ranked, they're number one for relative strength. Comcast is number three, KLA is number four. So from this group, first I have a special word of an Nvidia. This looks overboard, it looks overvalued, it's over everything. In the financial analyst journal, the one with the PhDs, the guys who don't believe anything that Larry and I say, they did a test using fuzzy logic to identify technical patterns. And they used the rectangle, the triangle, all the obvious ones. And the conclusion was that these patterns are real and they work. The single most prevalent one is the rectangle. And the single most profitable one is the rectangle, particularly a rectangular low. What you see right there is a rectangular low. When it broke out, this should rise, the technical analysis 101, by the height of that triangle, and that would put just a height of that rectangle, this should go to 500. And it's only about 440 or so. Relative strength going up, overbought, yes, it's overbought, but this is weekly, monthly it doesn't look that overstretched. Now let's add in some contrary opinion. This is Time Magazine. AI is the end of humanity. This is a very negative suggestion there for holding a stock. You know, own the stock and it'll kill you. And it is especially potent if it appears on the cover of a non-financial publication, which time is. Now it was Paul McRae Montgomery that discovered this when he researched 3,200 covers of Time Magazine back in the 60s and 70s and 80s. So this, you know, when people ask me, well Bill, you know, what should we do? Should we sell it? It's overbought. I said, just hold it and in fact add on to it. And that's what we did. So I'm convinced that's going higher. And the fundamentals, of course, who knows? I mean, if China takes over Taiwan, who knows? But all of the things being equal, they've got the chip of the day. And I remember back when LSI Logic, trading under $4 a share, developed a chip for use in the Sega game stations. The stock went from $4 to $56. And the Arabs are telling me, why don't you buy it? I said, we're already loaded up with chip stocks. And what is LSI going to do when people stop playing the Sega game? And the answer was it went back down below $10 a share. But I don't think this is going down any time soon. Now Contrary Appliance applied to the market. This is from June 12. And this is a bullish cover which suggests that we should have a correction here this week and perhaps next week. Now let's apply Contrary Opinion to the economy. The Economist writing high, the lessons of America's astonishing economy. There are a lot of people who don't think this economy is astonishing. And so this is bearish to the economy. Now of the stocks, very risk, which I picked out of that group, to me is, well, first of all, this is daily. So a lurch up on their earnings announcement. Now it's consolidating, poise to go higher. It's not, if you look at the momentum, you got a series of higher lows in here. And of course, the relative strength is very strong. So if I'm adding a new stock, I'm going to add this one because I went through the entire Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. And this is also, I think, number four in the S&P 500. It is number one in the Nasdaq 100. And this is the seasonality. It's only 14 years, but you can see May, June, July. And this is expected return. So it's only, again, it's only 13 years, but seasonally it's the right time of the season to own the stock. Shopify also comes in, but let me see where was it here so I can show you. SHOP is, oh, that came from, all right, I didn't include it. Value line keeps a list of the highest cash flow generators. It is computed in the following way. You take the free cash flow and you divide it by the plant spending and the advertisement is now coming on. Larry's going to make some money. No, don't prove his cash flow. I just, I just introduced it. 877-976648. Stay tuned for more Bill Meridian, folks. Psycho's Research, we'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Biotech is booming, but for how long? Whether you think the Biotech bull has room to run or has run its course, trade LABU or LABD, Directions Daily S&P Biotech three times bull and bear ETFs. Visit Direction Investments.com slash Biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact Direction Shares at 866-476-7523. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle. The fund are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, foresight fund services LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Okay, we're back folks and we're on with Bill Meridian cycles research. Bill please continue. Okay, now that you've improved your cash flow, we will look at Shopify. Value line has a list of the 100 highest free flow cash generators. It is computed in the following way. They take free cash flow and divide it by plant spending and dividends. In other words, it's cash into cash out. Now, when I first looked at it in 1977, Thompson Medical was at the top. The number was $19, $19 coming in from every $1 out. It's changed dramatically over the years. Now, the top 10 have like $20 per share cash into cash out and the top one is 40. So this is where Shopify comes from. I think Barrisk is also on that list. So that came in very highly rated. So let's look at the chart. It had a huge tumble from 175 down to 25. So it's got to get back up to about 75, what it almost is, to just retrace 50%. But the key here I think is the relative strength, which is bottomed out in May of 2022. So general rule of thumb, you have to have six months of rising relative strength or at least not making it low to launch a major uptrend. They just reported very good earnings, which is why you can't see it too well there, but that gap up here. So that's another stock that I'm considering adding as soon as this one to two week softness is over with. And old friend Cintas, CTAS is always on the list. They do uniforms, uniforms people wear in hotels and restaurants. The way the business shakes out, it's a high cash flow generator. And as you can see, it was in this 350 to 450 range, which means it should rally at least 100 bucks from where it broke out, which is 450, which would put it up at 550. And it's currently at 500, which means another 10%. And again, the series of higher lows and momentum relative strength has been a bit off, but you know, from here to here, it's rising. But you get a series of higher lows and relative strength. That's another one that comes with the screening method, but it's just applied to a different list. Now, last month, I had recommended meta and I just wanted to follow up as I see no reason not to continue. You have a new high here, absolutely, relatively. And if you look at this, this momentum, you can't say it's overbought. I mean, you can't say that. And you can't say this is overbought monthly, you would have to be up in this range. So I'm continuing to hold meta. I don't know what you're doing right. Maybe Zuckerberg started wearing a tie instead of t-shirts. I have a question though. You're a pretty smart guy. You got a real high IQ. What do you think of this AI stuff? Is it the panacea of all that everybody's talking about, or is it a fad? Do you have an opinion on it? No, I think it's going to develop and be useful, but it's like other things. Initially, it will not deliver the bang for the buck. People are very amazed now with what is that new software program that I forgot the name of it now, chat, GP. I think it's going to eventually create more jobs than it will replace. Right. Victor Verpaille, he must be 90 now. I haven't seen him. I met him in Vienna. He's a futurist in a serial tech entrepreneur, lives in Northern California. He thought our economy will be as sophisticated as Star Trek. If you remember Captain Kirk, who always ate chicken salad sandwiches, he'd say computer chicken salad sandwich. And you hear a bubbly noise and a screen would go up and there's a chicken salad sandwich. And he thinks that's actually going to happen with the help of AI. And he says the problem is going to be that so many people will be replaced. You won't have people making chicken salad sandwiches by hand. It'll be done, I guess, at a nanotechnology level. Or it'll be made out of bugs or something. But Victor said people will not have the disposable income to buy the stuff that the economy is going to churn out very cheaply. So therefore, he is for a national minimum wage so people could buy this stuff. I sat with the guy who was the chief expert in blockchain and cryptocurrency from New York University whose name escapes me right now. But he lectured and I caught him a half hour before the lecture. We sat in the act and he said blockchain is the big thing. And he said if you want to tell your kids what to study in college, have them study technology and management like a BS in technology and master's degree in management because there are going to be lots and lots of people employed in blockchain and digital currency who will need management. And so banks close down or they automate staff but they don't lay anybody off. Why not? Because the people get retrained and they do a higher function at the bank because now there is something new to do because of the new technology that displaced them. And also there are going to be, there will be accidents. It's like cars, self-driving cars that crash. And I'm sure there will be but I think it will take some time to come in. I think we are Star Wars is quite a way away with the, but I do think automation is taking over. I mean automation will take over after all if you have people who don't show up for work or people who file spurious, what do they call them? Annoying lawsuits. They're going to replace people. And they're doing that. They go automated hamburger stands and stuff like that. But somebody has to invent all that stuff. I visited NYU's robotics lab and I met Caesar the robot. You've got all these students working, one's making hands, the other's making feet. So anyway, we'll switch over to gold. Gold, I'm still holding it for two reasons. Look, it usually bottoms in June and it rallies up through September. So you're at the beginning of a strong seasonal run. And look at this. This is the close only monthly. It broke out here and it hasn't gone below this line, which is around 1925 or so. Well, as long as it stays in this position, and how did that happen? As long as it stays in this position, I'm bullish on it. And I think the sentiment is not bullish enough to reverse the trend. So I'm staying long gold. Well, this is gold from 1861. I didn't even know this was in here, but it shows relatively the same histogram. Now we'll switch to oil, which is bearish and bearish. So this is oil's monthly histogram. This is the expected return only. This has, the blue is the average percent change. The red is the probability of a rise on that day. And the green is the product of the first two. Let's make it simple. Where are we right now? This looks like an Austrian ski slope. You're in June and you're headed toward the seasonal low in October, November. So oil bear, oil bulls are swimming upstream. Let's look at that. Now this is a static cycle. It doesn't change that much. If I had it back to 1860, the data at 1860, it would probably look the same. Let's look at the dynamic cycle, which is the extraction of the latest price data projected out. And that is on a monthly basis. Down, you have your choice of down or down. And so I would say there's a 75 to 85% chance of lower oil prices. So why do I pick that? Because I learned from Richard Diamond, the professional trader, whose great qualification was he never worked for anybody else. He made money trading or he didn't eat or pay the rent. I studied with him and he said, if you're 85% certain with his a healthy degree of doubt, you're usually right. But if you're 100% certain, you're usually almost always wrong. And I'm throwing it 75 to 85% because you don't know politics plays a big part. No oil supplies can get choked off. Yeah. Hey, stay with us, please. We want to let the folks know how to do it. We'll be right back with Bill Meridian Cycles Research. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. 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If it breaks below that, then you're going down into the 50s. So I don't have the monthly chart, but we'll go to the bond market. Most bond markets, whether it's Italy, Germany, Japan, they're at major, if you've been out to your retracement levels, like the US 10-year note, which we see here, it's a 38.2%, which is around 109.110. So has it got far to fall? Well, no, not over the short term. Now, here's notes monthly. You'll notice June is a week month, not as weak, but all that weakness is tied up in this week. This is where we are right now. Today's date is what? 20? 21st. We're right here. I'm covering shorts and getting out of this tomorrow, the 22nd. But this happens in March, June, September, and December, of which March is the most bearish one. If the month of May is down, the probability of this is enhanced. So right now it's about 75, 80% that we're going to see lower prices lower on the 22nd, 23rd than they were on the 15th. So I'm currently short, but after that, it turns up. Here's the... Oh, this is important. What is that, Larry? It goes to a new high and close below the close and below the low of the prior month. That's a hook sell signal. Yes, it is. We have this confirmed. So my guess is you're going down to about 109 eventually. I don't know whether it's this month or next month. And that's the notes monthly cycle. As you can see, it's been headed down as a seasonality weekends. It actually bottoms out in July. So at that point, the seasonality and the dynamic cycle will be in conflict, which means you'll probably get some sort of a trading range with the emphasis on the downside. And we are editing show and I want to thank you for being with us, my friend. We'll have you on again soon and stay safe, my friend. I'll be ready folks. Cycles research in Austria. We'll see you tomorrow. Live every day in an attitude of gratitude and may God bless.