 A lot of big games from a playoff perspective on the week 15 main and daily fantasy football sleigh, but not a lot of big totals on the board for this week with no totals above 50 over at Fandals Sportsbook for week 15, which means we might have to get a little bit funky because the two highest totals both involve massive, massive spreads. We got to decide do we stack those games? Do we have bring backs there? Do we go to tighter spreads and lower totals? It's not easy. It's same complications for everyone, but we'll see how things break down here. We'll get you set for the week 15 main sleigh and hopefully lead you on the right path towards profitability. This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire. That's right here on the Fandal podcast network and Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the senior managing editor of Numberfire.com. Brandon week 15 is coming up. How are you doing today? Better now. Right before we went live. The last thing I heard from Jim was oops. Yeah. So like we were on YouTube and I sometimes forget the order of doing things because for covering the spread, I pressed live and then quickly press the intro so that it like measures up well. For this one, people are watching it live. So if I mess it up, it'll just be us sitting there on a screen with no intro. It'll look super stupid because I'll be like, you know, fiddling around, you know, just doing whatever. I almost went live without the intro because I start the intro first for heat check. I almost said covering the spread it went into in the podcast. I'm very organized, very prepared week 15 brand very ready. No, I've been distracted this week because I decided to build out a model for betting totals. And I think I spent most of my day yesterday doing that. I did prepare for like the slate as well. But I was really excited. I was like backtesting like ROIs based on what edges I have and stuff like that. So I'm very prepared, very ready, very locked in and definitely not going to mess up anything else the way. Well, I think it's good. I know you'll like ask me about the slate overview. Like, but this week, it's almost like nothing's perfect. So I just need to like we should be either like pick some games to stack. Like, yeah, because there's not like you're sifting through five or six really good games and figuring out it's like, it's probably going to come down to like, which games you settle on to stack. And so we'll talk about those and talk around things, but not a whole lot of screaming value. I think it might be another week where receiver in the flex is viable to save some salary because there may or may not be some value at running back. Yeah. As of right now, nothing concrete. So it really does depend on your tolerance level for imperfection at running back among value plays, but also what transpires in terms of injury reports throughout the week. We'll break down key spots to watch which guys we've got our eyes on and how we'd handle things based on the way injury reports break throughout the week. But first, a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast. We of course are an Apple podcast Spotify, et cetera, et cetera. Just search for it. The number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and while you're there, if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Also live on the handle YouTube page Mondays and Thursdays at 10 a.m. Eastern with only a handful of Monday night football games are meeting this season. 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Like you said, two of these slate over you here for week number 15 and Brandon, I think for me it is, it's a slate where there are a lot of desirable studs, maybe not like a lot like in terms of volume, but the studs that are desirable to me at least are very desirable and I want to get there. So it to me it comes down to deciding if it's worth it to take shots on value plays in order to get there, like jam in both there at Henry and Jamar Chase in the same lineup. Can I do that? Yes, I can, but it does force me to, you know, make some consolation. So to me it comes down to that making consolations deciding how heavy I want to go on those studs and more. What is the slate overview to you? Yeah, it's pretty similar. It's basically trying to figure out what are the odds that the big names make us regret not using them because if they go off and you need to have them in your lineup, you're going to have some value plays who just naturally don't put up a lot of points to begin with. But I don't, I don't like, I don't think it's even that easy because the mid range everywhere is like not that great. Like the mid range at running back is pretty bad, like the 7000 range for me is what I consider the mid range at running back. Basically 8000 up is a stud and below 7000 is like more in the value tier, but none of those guys are really flawless. Like Miles Sanders salary is really high. Alvin Kamera, we can talk about maybe being viable, but the fact that Kamera is not a slam dunk at 76 against the Falcons at home is like a toll on conversation. But like, Isaiah Pacheco's got his issues, Zeke, James Connors on of a night. Like these guys are not, I'm going to say it again, they're not slam dunk plays. You can't just build around them and feel like, I'm just going to take these three of these guys and feel good about it. So, like it's like a combination of making sure we get ceiling, but also there's not an alternative of like, I'll miss out on the studs so that I can just pepper that mid range. Because I don't think that's a great strategy either. Yeah, I think that that's a part of it too. Part of the reason why I'm so infatuated with Henry and Chase is because the opportunity cost in getting to, you know, like on the mid range and stuff like that is not as big. Like, you know, I think the gap between the studs and the mid range is bigger this week. That's the better way to phrase that. Of the guys in the 7000 range, like you mentioned, there are seven guys in that range who are like healthy and stuff. Of those seven, three of them are with quarterbacks who did not start the season for them. So Cole McCoy for James Conner, Mike White, like he's better than Zach Wilson, but is he a desirable quarterback? Probably not. At least not for me. And also in the timeshare with Michael Carter and then Kamara's with Andy Dalton, maybe better than James. I don't think so, but like they do. So I don't know. It's weird. They all are very flawed. I do like trying to CTN a lot, but like we know have a past couple of weeks gone. It's like there are paths of failure there too. So even the guys I like are imperfect. So it's difficult. I do think that there are some value plays worth discussing at running back even without getting injury news to break in our favor, but we'll break that down and dive into that throughout the podcast for today. Let's start things off though. With the injury section, we've seen backup quarterbacks most likely for both sides of the Broncos and the Cardinals. Kyler Maurit or his ACL, he has done for the year. Russell Wilson, this practice Wednesday in his in-computation protocol, will likely get the Broncos with no Coralyn Sutton here, and Brett Rippin played okay in his one game, filling in for Russ, but does the quarterback play in this game make it a cross-off across the board? In the end, almost, yeah. I would have considered like mini stacks here just because the names are good enough, but the salaries are too high for just about everyone. I think the only outlier there is Greg Dulcich just because he's a really good tight end. The salary is 5,600. Arizona allowing a catch rate over expectation of 8.1 points, which is easily the highest of the position. 1.87 yards per route run to tight ends that they face, like easily the highest as well. I think Travis Kelsey is a priority, which makes it really difficult, because I'm with you with Henry and Jamar Chase as being like their own priorities, but I think everyone's out, but Dulcich really because of where the salaries are. Yeah, Judy remained 65. I could be there because again Rippin was fine in that one start against the Jets and they're a tough defense. I think that was solid. Dulcich, the low salary I think is viable. You got Evan Ingram there at 55. The problem is, so I put in, I was tinkering to see if I could do a Henry Chase lineup, and I can. I just put in best play I could afford each position, and doing so left me with three Jags. I've got to navigate my way around that. I think I'll naturally wind up at Dulcich a bit. Cole Commets there at 53 getting off Ingram as well, but it's too many Jags. We'll be a theme with the podcast for me. Josh Jacobs was our tagline last week, like we're going to be on the Jags. We were on the Jags. I forgot about that. I should have done more of my actual lineups. Fun stuff. Josh Jacobs able to get in a limited session Wednesday with the finger injury he suffered last week. He wasn't a non-contact jersey, so I don't think this means he's a lot to play. If Jacobs does play, probably okay to treat him pretty close to his normal self. I would note that with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Wallerback. We'll talk about that in a second. Might lose some targets, but if Jacobs cannot go, are you looking at any other pieces in this backfield? We haven't really seen a whole game from Jacobs where he's been limited to get a read on what exactly they would want to do. We've seen Xamir White kind of be the name that was supposed to pop off, but Xamir Abdullah has been relevant. There's one of those spots. We talk about this a good amount. There might be opportunity, but we have to guess who's going to get it. We can guess wrong and just be flat out having a zero, or we can just guess and have it be 45% for each of those guys, like maybe Brandon Bolden. He's gotten some offensive snaps. He's not just a special team scout with them. Abdullah would be almost a lock to get the passing game work, which means we're relying on Xamir White to go nuts on the ground. Kind of tough, so I'd be okay backing off. Passing game pieces there again, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow designated to return from IR does not mean they'll be active, but they could be. Renfrow is 54, Waller is 51, facing off of the Patriots. Any interest in either if they suit up this week? I think it's an interesting week. One of my trends actually is about this team against tough defenses. I don't think that those guys are out of play for this week. Waller specifically is in play, 51. I mean, we've been here before. As someone and no one cares about your season long teams, but I've had Darren Waller on my season long teams for the past two years now, and he's just been sitting in the IR slot for all of that time. I've got to overcome that bias. The game series has been healthy, which has been like three, so I don't know how I have a memory of using him. We'll see how it goes. Tyler Boyd and T Higgins both logged limited sessions on Wednesday because, of course, T Higgins is limited. I still think Boyd's going to miss based on earlier reports and that finger injury. I have no idea how to read the Tiggins. The Tiggins. T Higgins side of this. The Bucks likely to be with Avita Veja for this game, which I think does boost the Bengals offense. We'll talk about them in the trend section. They are annoying. Don Trout Hillier missed practice Wednesday with a neck issue. His absence helped Eric Henry get five targets in week number 14. Traylon Burks also missed practice and is still in concussion protocol. We'll talk about them in the bookmaker section. Damian Harris and Jacobi Myers both got in limited sessions for the Patriots on Wednesday. Reminder Stevenson, Devonte Parker were both sidelined. Parker concussion, Stevenson ankle. It seems like Harris is trending toward playing while Stevenson very much up in the air. If we could Harris without Stevenson, would Harris be on your radar at 65? He would, yeah. I comp a lot of guys that Damian Harris. I've talked in the past about not loving Damian Harris for DFS, but we gotta remember that like at the beginning of the season, Harris had like a 40-ish percent snap rate and was a thorn in the side of Reminder Stevenson who once Harris got hurt, this team just leaned on Stevenson. So it's very clear that they love Stevenson, but they liked Harris enough to keep that in check from the start of the season, which I think is relevant. And so I would assume that Harris has a pretty substantial role. And look, I don't, I don't really see a lot of great plays in the 6,000 range of running back. I'm willing to take a guy who might not catch a lot of passes at that salary just to help me round out lineups. So again, I don't like to play guys because of their salary. I think it's a little bit more than that for Harris. I think that the team does like him. And the past catch is not a zero. He's had multiple targets in six separate games this year, six out of nine that he's played and he's left two of those early with injury. So he's not a zero in that regard. We know that they'll be willing to give him goal line work. Obviously Harris, Kevin Harris, and then Pierre Strong played fine Monday, but the fact that they have gone so hard at Ramandre when Harris has been out, I think tells you what you need to know. So if we get Harris with no Ramandre, I'll be very, very interested. And Harris at 65, probably a core play for me at that point that that happens. The Saints play smart Ingram on injured reserve with a knee injury. Alvin Camariz has been better without Ingram, like from a snap rate perspective. But as you pointed out to me, like the actual usage usage has not been better. They're facing the Falcons this week. Good match up, but also like bad vibes. Where are you on the Saints specifically, Camara? All right, I mean, yeah, I mean, with, with Camara, like the salaries tempting. It's weird to say again, like that 76 is too much to ask for. Yeah. Yeah. I just like this. This is weird because he has a five touchdown game. Or was it six? Six. And these are on the holidays too. So the holiday narrative, but Christmas Day, I think so. Yeah, because I made the joke of the VI in his name for the Roman numeral six. So that's, it's all coming back to me, Jim. What's not coming back though, I think is like the true ceiling of Camara within this offense. I don't really see a path for him to turn out a ton of yardage. I think you could score multiple times. I don't really know if he can score three times. Like, I don't know if this team will even take advantage of this match up well enough. These teams just don't run a lot of plays combined both sides. So like, it's one of the spots where maybe the optimizers like them a good amount, but I don't think I'm gonna end up getting there as a primary play. Yeah. And I'm not gonna stack this game either. So I'm gonna just hope that Camara has just an okay game. So I'm also not like super, I don't know, obviously turned on by, but that sounds weird. That's phrasing. I'm also not super enthusiastic about using Camara. The counterpoint would be if I were playing devil's advocate here against myself is the games in which Camara didn't do a lot were Tampa Bay, great rush defense, San Francisco, amazing defensive front. The Rams at the time, I believe still at Aaron Donald back in week 11. So tough spot there. He faced Pittsburgh. That was after TJ Watt was back. I think that was the game that make if it's Patrick missed with his appendectomy. So partially a better spot. They faced Baltimore. I think that was post-roquan Smith trade. So they've had a lot of tough situations and Atlanta is not that in terms of like the way a running back can feast against them. So we get them a buy, maybe Camara is healthier now than he was before. There's no Mark Ingram. The Saints are still in the NFC South race, despite being whatever like four and eight. I don't know. I don't know. I have no idea. Oh, yeah. Well, I was like, presumably they've played Atlanta by now. They played week one. And he did nothing. Nine carries, 39 yards, four targets and seven yards. And I'm not saying I copy and paste that. You make a really good point. And you actually almost sold me on Camara as someone I should just play. And I still might because running back is what it is this week. Yeah. So they're four and nine, which means they're only two games out in the NFC South. This is a pretty big matchup. These two teams hate each other. So like maybe there's that. I think that Camara is someone I need to give a lot of thought to this week and make sure I'm not dismissive based on the game log. I was not into it before I talked to the devil's advocate. Like, yeah, argument. I'm like, ah, that kind of actually makes sense. So I feel like the two guys who I think fit that mold this week of like, I'm pretty turned off, but think I should get to them are now Camara and Joe Mixon. We'll talk about Mixon in the transaction, but Camara, I think I might need to be on this week. Yeah. And we're not just here to like read the box scores or anything, but you want to see what the tangible upside has been. He has two games with at least 20 Fandall points. One of those is 20.4 against Seattle. Yeah. But he does have a 38.3 point game. Aided by three touchdowns, but even you take away the 18 points and still 20 with no touchdowns. That's good. Yeah. So you're basically banking on what was the where the issues related to the matchups or just this offense in general. And I'm not sold that it's not just the offense. So I'll have some Camara. I've decided on that already. I have a reverse course from just no Camara to some Camara, but he's not. I'm not itching to play him in my head to head against you, even though I might. Yeah. I will also say that this game has the fourth highest total by my like new total model on the main slate. It's it's 45.34. So, you know, it's not high. But Jim, I know, I know you were you were we were talking about that process. It made a lot of sense to me. I'm done. And for that reason, I'm out. Speaking of that game, that total is high despite a downward adjustment for Desmond Ritter. Desmond is starting for the Falcons over Marcus Mariota. Ritter's a third round pick. Mariota struggled this year, but he wasn't as awful as people made him seem to be. So I do have a downgrade in there for Ritter and still potentially might like the over despite that. So how does Ritter starting impact your view of, I guess we can just say Drake London, unless you want to talk about Cordero Patterson here. No, I'm not a CPAT guy. I still respect the Saints defense enough, especially in New Orleans, that I don't like to get there. My question to you is you do a lot of quarterback work. What should we expect from Ritter and is he viable at a $6,500 salary? I don't think the passing. So it's like he's weirdly kind of like Mariota in that like he's super, super athletic. He didn't run a lot in college, but like he's a great athlete. Like he tested super well. I thought he was fun. He's very experienced. He's not super old. I think that's a really good combination in terms of quarterbacks. My model liked him more than guys like Malik Willis and stuff like that. So, you know, it was he's the third round pick. Expectations for a third round pick should always be minuscule, but they're still in the NFC South. They decided to bench Mariota despite that. I think that is an endorsement of Ritter in innocence. So I'm not super high on this offense. And like I said, I do have a downward adjustment in there for them. And if London's salary weren't 63, it looks like Marshawn Lattimore might play this week. He got an limited practice Wednesday. He's been out since week six. So he's been out for a long time. I wouldn't like downgrade London based on that, but it's noteworthy, I think. I think that if I were to tell you like the most simple way to phrase this, I will have a non-zero number of Camara London stacks in multi-entry. I might get to Camara himself in single entry, but I don't think I'd burn a London lineup in single entry personally. That's where I'm at on it right now. Yeah. I don't want to stick on Camara too much, but he was someone when I was looking at loves. I only have two running back loves because I figured I'd find it throughout the shift. I didn't have three that I liked that much. I was like, I'll find someone. It might be him. And in that regard, then I should probably be more open to drink London. Are you going to regret this on Sunday morning or Sunday afternoon? Camara? Yeah. Yeah, we will. We'll have, we'll finish with eight carries, four targets, 67 total yards. This team will, they won't even show up on Red Zone. They won't even show a single play. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe a Ritter pick six or something, or adults in pick six. That might be more likely. Yeah. Or Tayson Hill just fake handing off. 70 yard touchdown for Tayson Hill and then no other yards the entire game. Yeah. Corey Davis missed practice Wednesday with a concussion. The Robert Salas said that he's optimistic that Davis will be cleared for Sunday. Davis's injury helped lead to 10 targets for Elijah Moore this past week. So how will Davis's availability impact your view of Moore and Garrett Wilson, you know, just kind of if more or if Davis plays stuff like that. Yeah. If Davis plays, I wouldn't get to Elijah Moore. I think Elijah Moore is viable just due to the salary and the fact that look, like if we want to play, you know, Patrick Mahomes, if we want to play Jalen Hertz, if we want to play Derek Canary, Jamar Chase, I really think I'll make a case for Travis Kelsey, which it's like the easiest thing to do of all time. But the fact that he has not had good games, I don't think he's like at the forefront of people's minds. We're going to need some guys at sub 6000 salaries. So I hope that Davis rests up gets well. So I can plug in some Elijah Moore. But if Davis plays, probably not going to play either of them, despite the matchup. And I still can't get out of my head, like the salary for Garrett Wilson. Like I get it with the matchup holistically, but that's really difficult to play like Garrett Wilson over Kenan Allen. Yeah, like I'm not saying they're the same salary, but looking me to want a Smith probably with the savings factored in. Yeah, I think I'm more accepted to Wilson than I thought I'd be. I think he might just be a freak. I'm receptive to him. Yeah, I'm not real. I'm not logically thinking I can play a lot of Garrett Wilson this week. Right. From a roster construction perspective, yes, I agree with that. I would also say with Moore and Wilson, their salary on another site that shall not be named is egregious. And people are going to be on them this week. And I'm guessing that will translate to Fandle as well, especially for Moore Moore. But I think that let's say Davis is cleared from Concussion Protocol and plays. I think that that makes Elijah Moore like I don't, I don't like seeking out like, oh, to fade the chalk is like that's such like an easy fallback. And it's such like a, it's a lazy, a lot of times a lazy analysis. I would be actively looking to be under way on Elijah Moore if Corey Davis plays because I think that leads to another, another path to failure. And his yard is upside, even on those 10 targets think he had like 60 yards, like it's like he went nuts. So I don't know, I would like to be underweight. Realistically, he's probably the best option this 5000 range. So I might need to wind up being there. But my goal would be to be underweight. Would you use Davis at all or no? Probably not. I don't even know what a salary is to be honest. He is 57. So right by Elijah Moore. Um, I mean, I guess I guess maybe it could be a really good pivot off more. No one will use Davis. That's true. Where do you rank them compared to Michael Gallup? Probably Gallup first, regardless. Same here. And similar conundrum at the top. Not that they're all the same salary, but like CD Lamin 81, Keenan Allen at 8000 or Garrett Wilson at 78. How do you rank those guys? Um, factoring in things like how likely are to stack the games, etc. I think that I would probably go Keenan last just because he has, I think he has the lowest odds to scorch me for like 140 yards. So I go lamb one, Wilson two, Allen three, probably. I'm fine with that. I don't dislike Allen. I will use him in game stacks, but I think that's the key knit I'd pick with him. Yeah, I like CD Lamin a lot this week. I did too. Canaries Tony got in another limited session Wednesday, should return from his hamstring injury this week. Nicole Hardman also returned to practice and should be at or could be acted from IR following his abdominal illness. Sounds like he regained the weight that he lost. So it sounds like he's tracking towards playing. We'll talk about the chiefs and the trend section on the opposing side. The Texans appear likely to be without Brandon Cooks and Nico Collins this week. We saw Chris Moore pop up in week 15 or week 14. Any interest in Chris Moore now that his salary is $6,000? So I went back and watched all of his targets from last week. Film boy. Yeah. Just to see because his numbers were pretty crazy. He had a 46% target share, 58.4 receiving yards over expectation, catch rate over expectation of 19.7 percentage points. So basically everything went his way is what that means. But it's kind of like a Rorschach test with him because he came out and got like a screen pass to start. Grant some jet motion twice. He scored on one of them, you know, inside the five. So like the overall eight out of 7.4 not very appealing. Had a six sideline catch. So like, is he going to maximize his opportunities from bad quarterback play weekly? Probably not. Is it really worth the upside? Probably not. Then again, who else are we going to stack from for bring back stacks with the Texans? Nobody. So I think he's basically, if I'm assuming that I want my homes in Kelsey to keep a game like somewhat close, I'll play Chris more. Otherwise, I'll just hope that it's a dud. Yeah. So you said more have like 58 expected receiving yards, right? No, yards over expectation. So his expected receiving yards was like 50. His expected. He actually had. He had 124. So yeah, basically like basically doubled his on 11 targets. He's expected to get that's because he had a really six sideline catch, which was most likely not very catchable. There was another downfield pass that I don't know which of the two quarterbacks it was. Let's pay attention. Tristlin with you like six times scramble. Well, there was some scrambling. So yeah, but it was like not a busted play, I would say, but like a downfield pass. And the Cowboys lost like multiple cornerbacks, like multiple secondary pieces either in game or pregame during warm ups. So like, I feel like I'd rather not get to more. Even if you're playing like my homes, like give me 10 my homes on ups, I'll probably put more in like three and have no bring backs in the other seven. I think I forgot to put the backfield on the sheet, but Damian Pierce not going to play this week. They also released, you know, Benjamin tough break for, you know, everyone gets hurt and he gets released. Like whenever someone's hurt, he's gone. It's very odd, which means that they basically have Rex Burkhead and Daria Gumbawale. I don't want to do that. So kind of just give me a reason not to please. Daria's size 5000. Rex is 48. Gosh. I think I think at a certain point when sellers are that low, you reconsider what it means to be a good play because you can play my homes and Kelsey stacks with pieces of the other offense. Oh boy. Are they the plays? So all right. Last week, Gumbawale 27% snap rate, Rex 8%. Gumbawale 30% of routes, Burkhead 7% Burkhead. Do you have any lingering Jared Dokes takes from last year's draft? He's on their practice squad. I do not. Okay. Sevens are on pick out of Cincinnati. Fine. I guess he'd be called up and he's kind of like the bigger guy. So I bet that he probably winds up getting the early down work and then Gumbawale and Rex split the late down stuff. That's me trying to give myself an out to not use this backfield is saying, oh, Dokes will get the early down stuff and the other guys will get the late down stuff. This team is going to run the ball as long as they can as much as they can. I think I might be on Gumbawale. I think of the guys, he'd be the one I'd be highest on I want past catching ability and he has that. And like you said, he played above Burkhead last week. Now Burkhead was coming off a concussion, but still you got clear to play. So I mean, we've seen we don't want to spend too long on this situation, but it could be a key piece. Yeah, it could be. Gumbawale 29, 20 and 27% of the snaps the past three games Burkhead played in the first of those three. So he outperformed Burkhead in week 12. Yeah. Here's the snaps were down. Yeah, it's bad. Like a Gumbawale or like Elijah Moore is like a flex level play to open up the rest of the lineup. And you rather use Elijah Moore by a mile. Yeah, personally. The Eagles designated Dallas Goddard to return from IR. He has missed the past four games with a shoulder injury. We'll talk about the Eagles in the bookmaker section. Same game chase Claypool, mispractice Wednesday with a knee injury. Concerning, giving that they're coming off a buy. Matt Eberfluss also said that it was either him or Luke gets either OC said that Claypool doesn't know the playbook yet, which is not ideal. He's better for a bit. That's not ideal. But again, we'll talk about them later on Najee Harris, mispractice with a hip injury on Wednesday. He did lose snaps to Jalen Warren last week. I thought it was kind of odd because Najee looked okay at times during that game. So I thought it was weird that his snap is about 60%. Maybe he picked up a hip injury there. Can he pick it able to get in the limited session, trying to work back to make concussion? So if Najee sits, we'll play this game again. Where are you on Warren at $5,100? I'd be pretty all in at that salary. Warren at 51 or Harris at 65, assuming that Ramandre and Najee sit. I'd like both a lot. Warren would be a core play, I think, for me. Yeah, I think my third running back is going to be either like Camara, Damien Harris, or Jalen Warren. Third running back after ETN and Henry. Okay, cool. Those are my two as well. We have a lot of the same interests at the end of the show. What could go wrong though, right? Well, I mean, punched my microphone. Good form. Like the secret is it's not that hard to find the two or three best plays at the position. The real angle to all of this is finding the guys who are not as obvious. Yeah, Warren at 40% snap rates this past week, again, with Najee playing for the most part. He's had yardage. He's pretty good pass catcher. I want all that stuff. He's 51 facing the Panthers. I don't mind Deontay forming in that game on the opposing side, but I'd happily dump out of him for Harris or Warren if given the chance to do so. So rest up Najee playing well recently. We want you to stay healthy. See, I was actually still a shot at the playoffs. So there's that, but rest up Najee and rest up Ramondray. We need you. Actually, yeah, the Dynasteme I have Ramondray on is done, so rest up. Take the year off. We'll come back fresh in 2023. Wow, that's upsetting. 2023. Okay, let's dive in the bookmaker section for week 15. One of the higher totals with a tight spread is in Jacksonville for our Jags hosting the Cowboys. Our Cowboys, maybe, is this an hour matchup? Love it. Totals 47 and a half with the Cowboys as four and a half point favorites. This game has the highest game-wide projected efficiency by my model. We talked about the Jags salaries Monday. Very forgiving to a disturbing level. So where does this game rank for you in terms of game stacks? Number one. Two quarterback game. I think so. Mm-hmm. I think the real question this week is in how do we get to Henry and Kelsey and Chase? Can we trust the lower salary quarterbacks at all with like Dak and Lawrence specifically? Yeah. And I think we can feel pretty good about that, but Dak is one of my loves this week. So yeah, I think it's two quarterback game. I think it is as well. I would say the Dak is above Lawrence for me, despite Lawrence having a really good game last week. Didn't run a lot in that game, which is concerning given the toe injury. He missed practice again Wednesday. He'll play, but like it's, you know, he's not fully healthy. But I prefer Dak. Obviously Dak has not had like a pop game yet, but they've been leading by a ton, stuff like that. It's been in play a lot. There have been a lot of weird circumstances leading to the lack of pop games for Dak. And I think he has that within his range of outcomes. So I prefer Dak will likely use Lawrence if I had to guess as of Thursday morning, but I wouldn't be shocked to get squeezed out of my player pool. So I'll be here for sure. Let's talk about the pieces within this game. We've got the Cowboys side first. Tony Pollard's salary is high at 82. I still think he's in play for Game Stacks. Won't get there outside of Game Stacks, but I think he can play at 82. You got CD Lam, you got Michael Gall, Dalton Schultz salary at 65. I was pretty off that initially, but like he does, he does have a lot of, a lot of usage since Noah Brown came back. So I don't think I'm actively off anybody here, probably lowest on Schultz relative to salary. But what's your read on the Cowboys side first? Favorite play is CD Lam. Well, I guess maybe favorite plays Michael Gallup just because of the salary that he can save us. But I really like CD Lam. He's one of my loves this week. He still has like substantial upside. He's not in like the Jamar Chase tier, but in two of his past five, he's gone over 100 yards. One of those was 150 and two touchdowns. You know, the volume's been a bit, a bit down, but they've been, you know, they played the Colts and that game wasn't competitive. And then they had the weird like letdown spot. Maybe they were looking ahead to other games against the Texans. I don't know. But, you know, it's been a minute since we've seen a huge game from Lam. He has that in his range of outcomes. And so I think that people, it's weird because if I just looked at this box score and I knew that it was a good receiver with good market share numbers, I'd be like, okay, people won't really be here, but people do love to play CD Lam. So I don't know if we'll get a huge discount, but within game stacks, he is a, he's a big priority. I don't want to get like a lot of Lam ETN stacks. Yeah. With Gallup, you touched on him. I just want to expand him quickly because I agree that he said on, on Lam with Gallup in the games since Noah Brown came back, 19% overall target share, 27% deep, 19% inside the red zone for a receiver at 57 on the site where we need value. That's fine. So I like Gallup quite a bit. And I would say is my favorite receiver below $6,000? Question mark? Yes. I think so. And I feel fine about that. Like it's not a huge like, it's not as bad as it felt like DJ Chark two weeks ago. I feel better about Gallup than I did there. I don't think it's as thin of an option. Despite the fact he hasn't shown yardage upside yet, I think that he has a building blocks for it within his usage. Looking at the opposing side here, you mentioned Travis ETN. I think he is a staple for me on this slate. ETN has been bad, objectively bad the past couple of weeks. And that could be due to the foot injury. And I think that's worth considering. But even when you include those games, over six games as the full featured back for the Jags, 23.2 adjust opportunities per game, carries plus two X targets, 96.3 yards per game, very good number for a back at $7,000 and a 43% red zone share at that time. So I want to be heavily on an ETN. I think that he is the most logical bring back for this Jags team. He doesn't get as much passing game work as you'd hope. And I don't think we should expect that to change. But I see no reasons to push back on him. Any other thoughts on ETN? Nope, love him. He's one of my loves this week. He's one of the two firm loves that I have running back this week. So Jags pass catchers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones and 11 games with Marvin Zay Jones active. They're both in a 23% target share. Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Their deep target shares very similar. The red zone target shares very similar. Zay's salary is 63. I feel like I'll wind up having a lot of lineups with ETN and Zay both in them. I don't mind having a receiver and a running back from the same team because like it shows up pretty often in perfect lineups. So it's fine. It's not, it's a deterrent outside, but not to the extent where you need to avoid it, especially they're both under salvage. I think it's true here. In that same sample, Evan Ingram at 17% target share, 12% deep, 13% red zone. He went off last week, but I'm not expecting that again. I think that I'd like to be off in this week if I can. What's your read on the pass catchers here? Yeah, pretty similar to you. I think the fact that Zay's salary is substantially lower than Christian Kirk's, but their workloads are similar. Makes it pretty easy. That being said, it's also then just as easy to overlook Christian Kirk. So both are viable. I should probably have Zay as like a consideration for loves at that salary. For sure. Not saying I didn't consider him, but I don't have him in there, but I might even pivot to him throughout the show. Just a really good game environment overall. This game could have plenty of points, or frankly, these are two teams that can't disappoint. They're not flawless, but for the salaries here, I think that's the overall takeaway. The salaries are good. If I am playing Zay, that's whenever I would feel comfortable maybe overspending a bit to get to Tony Pollard. Is Zay your favorite play in the 6000 range? Because he is from me. Let me see who else is there because it's not a great. It's a lot of dudes with bad quarterbacks. The name I was looking at when you said that. Sorry. I didn't mean to sound Brady. I'm not going to do that. Although I do love Chris Godwin this week. Good for you. You can have him. I'll talk you into him. Zay is my favorite play in this range. I agree. Pollard will be in your game stacks, correct? Yes. Zay Pollard is going to be pretty common for me. Okay. Cool. Other tight spread with a high total is in Los Angeles for the Titans and the Chargers. That is up to 47 and a half right now with the Chargers favored by three. It's a good match over both sides too because the Chargers can't run, but who cares? The Titans stopped the run well, so they are going to throw a lot. The Chargers can't stop the run. They're facing Derek Henry. Not great. I feel like this one, the puzzle pieces fit really well, and I don't want to overthink it. I feel like I just take the good puzzle pieces and go with it. With a Derek Henry, Mike Williams stack, where are you on this game? Very similar. In my placeholder lineup right now, I have Henry and Mike Williams together. That's going to be a combo that I have a good amount of or at least a good amount of confidence in. Sometimes I talk about games being a little bit too narrow to stack, which is a good because production means we're expecting the production to come through so many guys, but it doesn't leave me a whole lot of room to differentiate. I don't always love that, and that's just me being spoiled there. But I think the name that I might end up overlooking, because for the Titans we have Derek Henry and we have Chica Conquil. I think that's basically it. Yeah. For the Chargers, it's going to be Herbert, Kenan, Mike Williams, and the name that I think I could end up overlooking is Austin Eckler, which is nothing new for anyone who listens. Sure. So what are your thoughts on like Eckler in this spot? Tough rushing matchup. We don't care about rushing for him. Like my issue with Eckler is always yardage. In the 13 games he's played this year, 96.7 yards per game. It's a pretty bad number for a guy above 8,000. His red zone rule is amazing though. This game could feature a lot of points. If I tell you right now that Austin Eckler scores three touchdowns, you're not surprised. Like, okay, make sense. If you tell me he doesn't score and has like 95 yards on 10 targets, I'm not surprised. Exactly. Yeah. So I feel like we need to actively wedge Eckler into game stacks because if he goes off the game probably goes off, right? Yeah. But is he like the same but different version of Nick Chubb? Like it's not Nick Chubb this year, but like... No, it's like polar opposite. I think he's like old Derek Henry. Like Derek Henry before he got passing game work where it's like he's not going to project super well, but you know he has a path to going bananas. So what we did with Henry back in the day, again, before he got passing game usage was we'd ask, what are the odds he burns us for not using him? So for Eckler, what are the odds he gets the two touchdowns? I can get that from Fandall Sportsbook after accounting for juice. Like I feel like the odds he burns like gets two touchdowns and burns if you're not using him probably 10 to 15%, which means game stacks only, right? Yeah. Game stacks only for sure. And is your is your favorite game stack here, Henry and Mike Williams? Yeah, I know that'll be popular, but like it should be. Yeah, I agree. I know. So last week, you look at Mike Williams, only six targets in that game, but he was being shadowed by your hat, Xavier and Howard wearing a Dolphin's hat right now. Xavier, like we don't care about your like cornerback matches, but like it can reduce your target share. So he was great in terms of production for that game. Now, based in Tennessee, whose weak spot is our cornerback play, I know that like target share was not good for Mike Williams, but I want to be there pretty heavily this week. Where are you on him? And then Keenan. Love Mike Williams. I like Keenan a lot too. Would rather play Keenan in a head to head, but I don't know if I'm going to prioritize Keenan over CD lamb this week. Yeah. It's a hundred dollar difference. I'm not saying it's the exact same, but I'm going to go Mike Williams in tournaments time and time again. I hit a catch rate over expectation of 40 points last week because it's caught everything. He's that throne man. It's absurd. But yeah, I like both. Again, it's just basically only five or six options here, which is totally fine. Will you get to Herbert 83? Yes. Okay. I likely won't because you know, I likely will. I figured out the reason that he bugs me. It's like, he's like, if you, if you took Jimmy Garoppolo, or if you took like a freak as a way and put him in a Jimmy Garoppolo offense where the ADOT is super low, it's like, why are we doing this? I mean, he's got over 330 yards passing on, yes, huge volume. But guess what? This team just is just dropping back and throwing it time and time again. If he had, if he has the thought process behind why I will get there. But like, I talked to, I said the same thing on fun day for the race. And I said that I probably used him, but I said that I'm annoyed with it. That I get, but you know, give him 330 yards, three touchdowns instead of one and like a 20 yard rushing game. Yeah. None of those would surprise us. None of those individual outcomes. And his salary is very forgiving at 83. Yeah. That's a big pitch in his favor too. Easy to stack this game. So I'm going to get there, but like, I'm still, I just wish they'd run any other offense and what they do, it's the worst. They're the worst. He's the best. I wish, I just want to see him thrive. Like, oh man, we're going to say some reckless stuff here. So Todd Monkin, I don't even remember him. He was an offense coordinator in the NFL a couple of years ago. He's now George's OC. If you put Todd Monkin on the chargers as their OC next year with Sean Payton as the coach, I lose my, lose my mind out of like just going all in and Justin Herbert. We're not there yet. So I want it. Todd Monkin. Come back. Come back, baby. Come back to the NFL. Okay. This total is a bit more one-sided, but we do have a high total in Chicago for the Bears and Eagles. That is at 48 and a half with the Eagles favor by nine. The Bears are coming off their buy. So Justin Fields should be healthier. Mispractice Wednesday due to an illness, but it sounds like he'll be good to go. We don't know what he'll do in terms of running in a game that doesn't matter to them in theory. The Eagles sound like they'll get Dallas Goddard back. So when you go Eagles, will you bring it back with Bears here? Go birds. I mean, when it comes to really matter for the Bears lately, for being honest, you mean lately isn't like this year total zero? Yeah, like that. So I mean, I'm surprised that they even brought him back to begin with with the shoulder because I mean, there were reports that he's going to be fine. The coach said he could be done for the year. Are you going to be good to go next week or he's done for the year? We'll wait and see. We'll see if we're going to amputate the army. You know, it's, it's, it's up in the air right now. Yes. He's got what six straight games with the touchdown, seven rushing touchdowns in those six games. A, a season low six rush attempts for the 71 yards. That's the, that's the weird sticking point because he had that long rush for a touchdown yard or something like that. Yeah. So like you take that out. It's again, you know, take away everyone's best play. It is what it is. But like that's a very different just in fields than what we've been getting. Now I will say a season high passing yardage output as well, 254 yards, no passing touchdowns. And despite the fact that he's not a high volume passer, you know, he's had, you know, uh, before that two, four, six, seven straight games with at least one passing touchdowns. Like that's not super common. It's not like he doesn't throw any passing touchdowns. Yeah. Um, I don't think he's the best play this week with the salary down. I don't expect him to rush as much if he does. Kudos to everyone who foresaw it and can look back and say that I was being stupid and he's going to run 13 or 18 times again. But I don't think he's going to be a priority for me. And therefore I'm kind of lower on this game as a whole. Yeah. I think that if Claypool can't go, I know that Claypool is not like good. Has not been a different space for this team, but that means he boot out both Darnell Mooney and Claypool. And at some point that has to matter. Um, so I think that would hurt me in terms of him too. So if there's no Claypool, I can see myself excluding him. I think he's a sharp play this week in terms of like, oh, people probably won't be on him and his salaries come down. But if there's no Claypool, I think I can see myself not being there. The one guy I do like on the Bears is Cole Comet, $5,300. He's shown yardage juice this year. It seems like he just kind of figured stuff out. Seven targets in the one game without Darnell Mooney. And now Claypool is banged up too. 72 yards there. He's now at 70 yards twice in the past four games. So I think Comet works at 53. He'd be the one bring back. But like, again, if we do the exercise of if I have 10 Hertz lineups, I'm probably bringing it back with Comet in four of those. So I like him better than Chris Moore. Four or five, I think is where I'd wind up settling in there. Yeah, that's fair. I almost view this more as like, I like Devante Smith again. It's all, I'll do mini stacks there. So I'll probably have a good amount of Cole Comet, whether it's with Hertz or just Devante. I mean, I like Age of Brown too, obviously. But yeah, the games I played with Goddard, if we assume he's back, Age of Brown at 30% target share with 46% of the deep work and 36% in the red zone, gross. Devante Smith's target share does come down to 24%, but 24% for a guy at 72 is still pretty good. Deep work, 22% there, but like we saw him get a lot of deep shots without Goddard. I don't think that'll go away. Goddard in those games, 21% target share, 26% in the red zone. So I adore Goddard. People probably won't be there first game off IR. Maybe they ease him back in, but like I doubt it because he's been talking about being back for the first game for a while. So I think Goddard is actually my favorite piece in the Eagles outside of Hertz. I like it more than Devante, but I think all three are very good. Yeah, it's a really easy stack to like. So come that works, for a lot of reasons, I want to see Justin Fields play like Justin Fields again, but I'm okay taking a wait-and-see approach. I'm not saying I'm one of any if I'm playing like 20 lineups. I'll make sure I have some just because he could put a flamethrower to everything if I don't use him. But it's more of a FOMO thing than I think he's going to come out and run 18 times for 170 yards and nine touchdowns. Got a question from Jack over on YouTube, asking Devante Smith or Keenan Allen this week, and I want to spin this a little bit differently. So sorry, Jack, I'm not answering your question directly. But we've got three receivers in the 7,000 range, and we've talked about liking a lot. Devante Smith, Mike Williams, Christian Kirk, all at 72 or 71 rank them because we like all these games, but rank them for me. I like Chris Goddard went to, but for those three specifically, Big Mike, Devante and Kirk in that order. Probably same. I could see myself talking myself into Kirk over Devante, but I don't think I'll put anyone above Mike Williams for this week. And you did rank Keenan versus Lamb and Gary Wilson and put Keenan last, correct? Correct. Okay, let's go to the trend section here and talk about our Lions. How many teams do we own here? I guess I don't know. I'm going to say our Lions because they're the best. You're talking about them against good defenses on the road. I'm curious what sample you pulled because it's not a big one. It's good defenses and it's on the road. Okay, talk me through that then. I didn't read your trend clearly. What can you see when you look at the data? I didn't read it either. But yeah, they're on the road. They've been darlings for us for a bit now. Jared Goff, QB4 and consecutive weeks in season long. Love to see that, but they're up against the Jets who are fourth in adjusted past defense, ninth in adjusted rush defense according to number fires metrics. So, you know, what do we do with them for this week? Jared Goff at home, there's a Jared Goff at home narrative, has averaged 21.1 Fandall points per game, 51% passing success rate, 0.31 passing net expected points per drop back, which is 0.25 over expectation with the defense's expectations. That's really good. 277 yards per game, 2.5 touchdowns per game. On the road, Fandall points are cut in half. In just five games, this team's not played a lot of road games. That comes with a passing net expected points per drop back over expectation of 0.01. So basically playing to the level of the opponent, still a decent success rate of almost 49%. 227 yards per game, 0.4 passing touchdowns per game. Against top tier past defenses on the road, there's just two games against the Patriots and the Cowboys. The caveat there is that Amon Ross St. Brown barely played in those, and so there's really no sample as Jim alluded to to know what we're going to get. And that can be bad because we don't know what to expect, but it can also be good if people just assume that anytime Goff's on the road or against a tough defense, he doesn't play well. Amon Ross St. Brown is very good at football, so I think that's something that we need to account for. Goff, about just under 230 yards in those games, horrible efficiency, took a lot of sacks in those games, and the Lions scored six total points in those matchups. So I don't think people are clamoring to play the Lions. If anything, they're excited to play the Jets against the Lions, which I understand. But if you're excited to play the Jets, if we still like Garrett Wilson despite the salary, we want some Elijah Moore. We're considering Corey Davis. Maybe he's on of a night, is like an answer in game stacks at 7,200. Then we should take a look at the other side and see what is actually here. But again, very difficult situation for Jerry Goff in those spots. And on the road against the other three teams who are all 24th or worse and adjusted past the offense, 0.22 passing that expected points per drop-back over expectation. Again, that accounts for opponents, so he's been very good on the road otherwise. Just at 226 yards in 0.7 touchdowns, but the efficiency was there. Volume and touchdown lock, not quite. So it's sort of a, do you think that Goff can do something with St. Brown against the tougher defense? Or do you think that anytime he's on the road against the tough defense, no matter who he has, he's going to crumble? And that's the question we have to answer this week. I'm not going to get to Goff himself, but it's more about the viability of someone like Almonra, St. Brown, in a tough matchup. Maybe DJ Chark, unfortunately for us, no D&J Swift. But since week 13, with Josh Reynolds back to a bigger workload, St. Brown, 28.4% target share, which is 10.5 per game, 91 yards per game and a touchdown per contest, 57% red zone target share. Absolutely love to see that. I could understand that St. Brown is not anyone's priority, but could make a lot of sense in the right types of lineups. DJ Chark, 18% target share, 6.5 per game, 4.0, downfield targets per game, 8 out of 14 yards. Love that. D&J Swift, Josh Reynolds, each with a 13.5% target share. Reynolds is 9.6 star at 8.0, 1.5 downfield targets per game. I'm not going to get there, but again, we have the jets are priced up to roster. The Lions kind of untested in this regard, but we know that they're a good offense generally. So we talked about the jets enough. Do you like the Lions at all here? So I think that if I want to like, I love Jared Goff as people know, I've profited off the Lions recently, so if I want to remove that bias out of the situation, I think that what I want to do is go back to last week and think about my thoughts on the Bills. Bills are better offense than the Lions. I didn't have a lot of interest in the Bills at home against the Jets because I respect this defense so much. So why would I be hiding the Lions against the Jets? That's again, I think you're asking the right questions. I'm just asking myself, if I flip it that way, I don't think I'd have any interest. So a Mod Ross fine at whatever his salary is, but I'm not going to prioritize him over even AJ Brown or CDLAM. Probably going to be lower there. I adore DJ Chark as you know, but I don't want to use outside receivers against Soss Gardner and DJ Reed. Like they're both very good. So as high as I was on Chark the past two weeks, I'm okay jumping off board this week. I'll get back on. And it's not about Goss home road splits. And you were talking about this too. Like, you know, you were accounting for the fact that, hey, people are probably overreacting. I think they are too. This is just about the Jets defense and I don't want to go against them. So I think we're on the same page with this team for the same reason, which makes me feel better about it too. Yeah. Like the trends are, they're not based on like, let me talk you into everyone that I like. It's what's here. What are we maybe not seeing initially? What needs to a little bit more focus? And I do think pretty sure that the Lions play a lot of road games to finish out their season because they don't have a lot so far. Yeah, they haven't played a road game in like a month. So I think that like if golf gets good, I don't know who they play in those, but if there are some good matchups there. Yeah, I'll be in. Maybe we hope that they struggle this week. Yeah, I want them to be like, not bad enough where it actually gives me worry, but like bad enough where it throws people off the scent. Like they get the Panthers next week. Next week. Then I pay it. That's at home. Packers on the road. Potentially to make the playoffs. Hopefully to make the playoffs. Yeah. I won't be here this week. I kind of hope we get a chance to buy in later on though. Yeah, that'd be fun to me. Okay. Let's talk about my trend here, which is the Chiefs while they are leading, because as we saw last week, the Cowboys, you know, being heavily favored doesn't mean you'll be leading the entire way, but the Chiefs are 14-point favorites this week. So it's worthwhile to dig in to see what they do when they are up. The Chiefs have run 143 plays while leading by a year or more points in the second half this year. The league average pass rate in those scenarios is 39.7 percent. The Chiefs are at 46 percent, which ranks eighth among teams with at least 20 such plays. So they're more past heavy than league average, but they will pedal back at least a bit. The Chiefs have won five games this year by double digits. In those five games, Mahomes is at 37.4 pass attempts per game. That's down from 39.3 for the full season, but still a respectable number. Mahomes is at 27.74 fan dual points per game in that sample. He has topped 32 twice. He had a rough game against the Rams to drag that down, where they couldn't do anything in the red zone. But across all games, Mahomes's fan dual point average is 25.5. So it actually has gone up and blowouts, and he has upside. So I want to get a read on Mahomes's projected popularity. If people are off him, this would be a great spot to pivot. I think that'll happen based on the implied total, based on the defense stuff like that. But if he were low roster, he'd be pretty sick. I also think there is enough passing volume to get the pass catchers. The problem is that Kaderius Tony is back, Miko Harbin likely back, not initiative for Travis Kelsey. He can be fine despite those guys, but it does cloud things a bit for Juju Smith-Houster, who seemed odd the past couple of weeks. He did do well last week, but it's a bit odd. The one game they played with Tony and Hardman, Juju had 12 targets and Kelsey had 17, but that was on 62 targeted throws. Can probably cut that in not half, but almost half for this week. So you can take Swipes at Harbin at 55 or Tony at 6,000, but I think Kelsey may be the only desirable stack partner with Juju being like an other to consider here. As far as the backfield goes today, Pacheco's salary is 76, which is pretty high. He's averaging 90 yards since scrimmage per game in 5 without CEH, which is fine, but his 30% red zone share is lower than he'd like for a salary. Jarrett McKinnon's salary is more forgiving at 62, but he doesn't really get rushing attempts, and this would be the script to get rushing attempts. Even after this huge game, McKinnon is at 60 yards since scrimmage per game in 5 without CEH. So I like Mahomes and Kelsey a lot, but their salaries are high, open to Pacheco, but he is also imperfect. So it's tough. I want to be on the cheese, but it's not easy to get yourself there. So how are you viewing this team against the Texans? Love him as a pivot, and not just in the sense of like, I need to see Mahomes at a certain... Yeah. Like he's going to be, he's going to be lower roster than he deserves to be, just because of the spread, and because Houston like did some things last week, but he is, he's a few weeks removed from like reminding us that he's Patrick Mahomes, and I don't really think that that's gone by any means. Like played Denver last week, threw for 350, played Cincinnati. That was a weird game. Like Cincinnati really had the right game plan to like limit them. He had just 27 pass attempts in that matchup, played the Rams before that, but if you keep going back, like it's been there, so I'm not that concerned. Again, I think that Kelsey is bound for a huge game this week, and I feel really good about that. He's one of my loves. I'll talk about him in more detail in a bit, but I'm okay saying I like this offense, even if it's just Mahomes and Kelsey. I mean, yeah, I think that's fair. Where are you going to Pacheco? I wouldn't ask. Because of this without running back works, I'm okay with it. I just, I don't fear Pacheco that much because I don't, I just don't, like I'm not saying he doesn't get any red zone work, but I just assumed that Derek McKinnon's going to come on in the red zone, and I don't love that for... Well, his red zone sure is 70%, which is not nothing. But it's not good. Is it good at 76? It's not. Right. But when you account for the fact that they're projected to score 90 points, that helps. It does. So... Yeah. He's had 10 points. I would consider a Mahomes Pacheco stack to try to get all of the production that they have. If you just look at his point totals with no touchdowns the past four, it's 10.7, 9.1, 9.2, 10.8. That's like, if he gets a two, which is possible here, like that's doable. It's also still like 22 points, which is not great either. But the rushing yardage could increase, too. So I feel like, again, I don't want to say this for everybody, but he's a 20%, 15%, 20% kind of play. But I think that's what he deserves. I'd prefer Camara over Pacheco, though. Yeah, it's a very scary week. Very easy to say. I'm going to have some of this guy, some of that guy. Yeah, it's tough. It's not fun. Okay, let's go to your second trend. Talk about there it is. Because they're facing the Patriots, very good defense. What do you see when the Raiders are put up against a tough foe? Yeah, I mean, there are just not a lot of situations that are flawless this week. And so you want to look a little bit deeper and make sure that we're not crossing off teams that maybe don't have to be crossed off. This week they host the Patriots. And again, with a solid total for this slate, tight spread as well, but New England second in adjusted pass defense according to Number Fire's metrics. The Raiders have faced just one at top 10 adjusted pass defense and two in the top 12. Against those pass defenses, though, Derek Carr has four games because those are against in-division opponents with the Chargers in the Broncos. In those games, Derek Carr has averaged 260 yards and 1.5 touchdowns, playing just above opponent expectation in those matchups. 260 and a touchdown or two is not terrible. It's not enough for me to want to play Derek Carr in a bad spot, but it's more about can they move the ball, can they be relevant, and can they make their skill position players relevant as well, especially with potentially, assumingly so, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow back. But in those four games, Devonte Adams just forced the ball. 13.8 targets, 140 yards, 1.3 touchdowns, 43% of the targets, 3.89 yards per outrun. 57% red zone targets here. I'm not very concerned about Devonte and I don't think people want to play him, especially coming off of a down game. Like, it's a super sick workload. And again, he's coming off of a bad game on Thursday. Devonte now has three or fewer catches in four games, including last week on that Thursday, Baker Fest. In the three follow-up games, Devonte has averaged 12 targets, 92.3 yards and a touchdown with a 35% target share, compared to 18% for those the weeks before when he didn't have a lot of catches. So seems like they really try to get that correction in there. Now, I know Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, potentially coming back, but I don't think that really affects Devonte Adams too much. And then only two games with them, playing at least 50% of the snaps, those were way back the first two weeks of the season. Devonte, 32% target share, Renfrow, 22%, Waller, 19%, Mack Hollins, 12%. I honestly think Devonte's a really fun pivot play that people will not use. I won't argue with anyone who doesn't want to get there because of the matchup, but he's been really good against the only tough defenses he's faced and there's the narrative that he should just get peppered. I think that's fun. And if you give me Waller and Renfrow to take away some extra attention, I like that. Josh Jacobs, if he plays totally into it just because the workload is sick, do you see enough here that you would consider Devonte? I know we talked about Waller a little bit, but where are you at this team against a really tough opponent? So you mentioned the overall target share for Devonte. Do you know his deep target share and red zone share in those games? I do not. 50% deep target share and 42% in the red zone, bananas. Just like, and that's with those guys in there. It's sick. So I should be on Devonte. Salary is actually very fair at 85. No one's going to use them. Yeah, if we get Damian Harris there too, a Damian Harris Devonte game stack isn't bad. My numbers, do you like the under in this game? Has it at 41.3 points? So pretty bad game overall, but I don't think using Devonte is off base. They played a lot of bad games. Like from a, they were playing, their defense stinks, but like, you know, so it's, you know, I think I should be there. I'm not sure if I will be, but I think like, I think it's a should versus will. I should not sure if I will. Yeah. Does that make sense? Yeah, it does. Cause I think he's a, I think he's a really fun pivot play, but I don't even know if I'll talk myself into it. I hope I do. I've talked myself into the process behind it, but. Yeah, yeah. I think, so I was talking before about a game stack. Oh, I said, saying like, I'll probably have a non-zero number of Camara London game stacks. I should probably try to make sure if we get no Ramandre that I have a non-zero number of Damian Harris, Devonta Adams game stacks. I think that's very in play. Let's finish up with my second trend here and talk about Tampa Bay defense because one of the more reliable offenses on this side is the Bengals. The problem is that they're facing the Bucks and that offense that the Bucks offense is not creating shootouts right now and the defense is largely good. So I wanted to see if they were good enough to make us avoid the Bengals. The Bucks currently seventh in my defense of power rankings, they're specifically good against the Rush. They are in the 77th percentile there in early downs. They're in the 67th percentile against the pass in early downs. They've been especially good against the Rush when Akeem Hicks has been healthy because they've exceeded expectations against the Rush on early downs in five out of seven games when Hicks has played versus just three out of six when he has sat. For this week Hicks will play but Vita Veja sounds like he's probably going to sit. And I think that opens stuff up for Joe Nixon whose salary got bumped down to 81. He had bad uses last week but I think that's intriguing. You can't hurt the Bucks through the air especially as injuries have piled up. Both the Saints and 49ers shredded them the past two weeks with Antoine Winfield out. He also missed weeks eight and nine and they weren't as bad there but they did perform below expectations. Winfield did not practice at all last week so not sure what his status will be heading into this game as far as Wednesday goes. He got in a limited session so he may be back but the Vita Veja loss might potentially nullify that a bit. The Bengals haven't played many good defenses since they completely revamped their offense back in week five. The one defense I'd classify as good as the Steelers who don't grade out well for the full season but did a bold TJ Watt and make of its Patrick in that game. And the Bengals hung 37 on them. Burrow went for 355 and four touchdowns even without Chamar Chase. So I think Burrow, even if Boyd and Higgins are both out, can still light it up here. He's at least on my radar and it helps me feel better about Chamar Chase at 9000. Trenton Irwin ran 33 routes on Sunday with Higgins and Boyd both going down early. He had just two targets but had 58 yards. Eight out was 21.1. One of those on a broken play which is worth noting but still. Irwin is at 1.2 yards per route run this year. Has a target on just 11% of those routes but if there's less competition I think he's pretty interesting as a lower salary play this week. So wishy washy but I think I kind of want to get to mixing. I think Chase and Burrow and Irwin all have some appeal. How are you feeling about the Bengals this week? Yeah, I like them. Burrow's very capable despite the fact that he's without, you know, look, I think Tyler Boyd's okay. TJ Higgins is fantastic but he still has Jamar Chase. So like this is one of the spots where you downgrade the offense but this is still an offense that we would like if it was a different team and they never had TJ Higgins. We'd be like, yeah, let's place. I mean, I don't know if this makes sense but like the Vikings, like we still like Justin Jefferson. We don't, I guess we don't like Kirk Cousins but, you know, there are examples out there of like just one great receiver, a good running back that we're still into the offense. So I'm not going to downgrade them that much. I probably will play Trenton Irwin. I think I'm going to load up on some by receivers this week just because I thought you'd yell for that. I'm pretty happy about that. I thought you'd be mad at me. Man, I live in the, in the, no offense to anyone. I was born in the dumpster. Yeah, as I was going to say, no offense to anyone in the NFL but I live in the trash tier and I'm okay taking chances on guys. So yeah, Irwin, I'll play him. I liked Mixon last week. I'm here. I think Chris Godwin could bring back. I don't. I'm not as high on that but I do like Irwin enough. If we get no Higgins boy, now the Higgins situation is what it is. Is there a scenario in which you'd use Higgins this week? No. Not even if he's falling off the injury report on Friday because he was limited off the injury report last Friday. If he's falling off, I'll do it again and I'll hate myself for it but like he's 75. So if he's falling off, he'll do it. I'll do it. Yeah. It just feels, I'm still hurt by that. I'm so mad. That's Zach Taylor. He's the worst. He's not getting a Christmas card this year. Yeah. He also said that Joe Mixon was the starter and yeah, he started this week. Why? That was the most truthful he was all week. Do you agree with the Mixon or no? What am I agreeing with? I think he's a good tourney play and to the point where I'd use him in single entry. Probably a little bit lower than that but he's like I performed like Miles Sanders. Yeah, I do too. Pollard or Mixon? Probably Mixon. But I'd say Pollard because I'm more likely to stack. It's true that game. But it's fair. I think Mixon will be like that guy. Like he'll be on 5% of rosters and if you use him, he goes nuts. It could be like easy slate. I think the Pollard Mixon thing is exactly what I was talking about at the top of the show where it's going to dig like my exposure level is going to dictate on which games they actually end up stacking. If I can talk myself into more of like the box and I just like load up on that game a little bit more than I thought then I'll have more Mixon than Pollard. But I think that's kind of ultimately what it's going to come down to. Yeah. So Mixon not like a cash gain consideration for me but a really good tournament play I think and what I want to actively seek out because bad workload last week but still had 106 yards. Workload could expand this week. We don't know. No Vitevea but people probably won't know slash account for that because they don't really care about defensive players. So I think that's a fun angle to play. Yeah. This is why we're I'm I will talk defensive stuff and you talk me out of bad plays. Yeah. You talk offensive line and defense. And then you talk me out of bad plays but apparently not Trent Nuerwin which is concerning. I thought you might but you didn't. So man I need I need some savings. Good hair for Trent Nuerwin. You should consider watching it but it's decent hair. Okay. Weather for this week we do have 10 mile per hour wins for that game between the Bengals and the Bucks. Nothing concerning yet but worth noting. Same thing for Jetson Lions 10 miles per hour there and then 12 mile per hour wins for Eagles and Bears which is like high enough where like it's worth a bit of a downgrade but that's actually the highest total in my model for this week is that game. So I wouldn't downgrade hurts too much despite the wind being up there. Let's go now position by position break down our favorite plays on Fandalfe week number 15 Brandon. What are you doing at quarterback this week? I want to get to Patrick Mahomes. I guess the caveat here should be a lot of my loves are going to be higher salary guys because we're going to find some value by Sunday. We just don't know exactly where it is yet like between potentially running backs like Trent Nuerwin depending on you know T Higgins stuff like that but I think we can spend up to be contrarian this week and again like being contrarian at quarterback is not something you have to worry about too much if at all but if you can do it and it works out that Mahomes is a little bit overlooked. I'll take it. There really aren't like the value quarterbacks in elite matchups which is something I think I need to do a better job of is scanning those really good matchups and just making sure that I'm not overlooking things but not playing like Mac Jones or Andy Dalton or anything like that this week. So limits the guys who can really match a big ceiling from someone like Mahomes who has been basically just mortal for three straight games with 22.7 eight or fewer Fandalfe points and all of them but those games were good for 320 yards and just one touchdown on elite efficiency that could have had more touchdown lock 223 and one on the road plus a rushing touchdown against the Bengals who really seemed to know how to like play the Chiefs the right way. So factor that in and then 352 yards and three touchdowns against the Broncos last week on the road. That's awesome. Like I'll take that. The three picks really brought him down but otherwise really good spot and my second love is going to be Dak Prescott. Might be the guy I have the most exposure to just to help me open things up salary wise but Jags 29th and adjusted past defense Prescott versus teams 22nd or worse 18.4 Fandalfe points almost 260 yards per game 1.6 touchdowns with efficiency of 0.28 passing that expected points per drop back over expectation. That's awesome. The breakout is going to come eventually and it could finally be this week and he had five carries for 24 yards last week excluding Neodown. So yeah. Dak is mine as well. My second love the Jags pretty good against the run. As you mentioned not very good against the pass could encourage them to be a bit more pass heavy which is part of the reason why Dak hasn't blown up because if the Cowboys can kick your butt in the ground they will and they might not be as able to this week as usual. I think it'll be a pretty tight script. I bet the Jags money line should be a tight script potentially high scoring game. The Cowboys might not be able to bully the way as much so I do like Dak at 75. My first love though was Dylan Hertz. The risk here is that Eagles could pull away from the jump but I like Hertz regardless because they blew up the Giants last week and he still scored 30 Fandalfe points and that was with Miles Sanders going bananas as well. So Hertz might not run as much if they get ahead but he should still be efficient both on the ground and through the air. I think that he is the best range of outcomes on the slate. So I want Hertz to be at the top of my pool. Probably won't get there for our head to head. I think I'll likely go Dak there to save salary in order to get more access to guys with better workloads elsewhere. But if we got a lot of value like Jalen Warren, Damien Harris, I would happily, happily, happily get to Hertz a quarterback then. Running back, what do you have there? Two guys I feel really good about, Derek Henry and Travis Etn. For Henry, I'm definitely going to prioritize him this week which if anyone's listening to the show forever knows that's a little bit weird for me but it's a different situation for Henry. With Dantro Howard leaving early last week, Henry had a 76% snap rate and in games with his 70% snap rate are better this year. He's averaged 24.7 carries, three targets for 146.3 scrimmage yards with a 40% route rate and 44% of the total red zone carries or red zone opportunities. He's facing the Chargers who allow 1.55 rushing yards over expectation per carry that is 0.49 yards per carry worst than any other team. Pretty bad. So it seems good. Seems good. Travis Etn facing a really good adjusted pass defense. Trevor Lawrence maybe not 100% so they could lean on Etn more and in games with at least half the snaps, 14.3 carries, 2.9 targets for just under 90 scrimmage yards. Okay enough, red zone opportunity share of 35% for the salary for the game stack ability. I like that a lot. My third love is sort of contingent. We might get Damien Harris without Ramandre. Might get Jalen Warren without Najee Harris. I still think I'm going to consider Dariah Ogun-Bawale for my stacks with the Chiefs. But realistically I think Alvin Kamara deserves more attention. Atlanta's average in rushing yards over expectation per carry allowed to backs but 30th in rushing success rate allowed still involved as you mentioned. He's faced some tough defenses. I think the path for stealing is still there and the salary is low enough that I should probably be higher on Kamara than I was at the beginning of the show. Yeah and I think that the fact that he's had a week to like get rested. I know that he had that injury like way, way, way longer but it's possible that was still like bothering him to an extent. He had to buy we'd get rested. So I do think Kamara is a good turn to play. My first two loves are the same as Dariah's, Dariah Kamara Travis Etn because I do think it's worthwhile to spend up a running back this week given Jacob's workload. If he's healthy, Henry's workload, the matchup that you alluded to. Henry is at 128.4 yards from scrimmage per game at 11 games since his passing game usage ticked up and we could get more here with no Dantral Hilliards. So likely no Dantral Hilliards. So I think that Henry is very good. Etn, the outputs have been rough but it's possible that's because of his foot but the overall sample on him is the lead back is still very good and his stat ratio has come down like $1,000 from its peak which is quite a bit. Maybe 1,200. I think he might have an 82 on point. But you can run on Dallas a bit. 17.8 carries per game, 2.7 targets per game. I like Etn a lot this week. My third love if I assume we don't get Najee or Najee Harris out, don't get Remandre out. I will go Deontay Foreman. Last week his usage was not good. I think that's worth noting but despite that, he still had 21 carries, a target and 75 yards in scrimmage. He's had 100 plus yards in scrimmage four separate times and for a guy at 64, that's pretty good. He's facing the Steelers. I think they should be able to remain close throughout that game potentially Mitch Trebisky or Mason Rudolph starting to feel the pose inside. So I think Foreman is in play at 64. I'd prefer Harris. If we can get him, I'd prefer Joan Warren but I'm okay going with Foreman if I need to in order to save salary. Running back, we'd prefer Camara as well at salary but Foreman is in play at 64. Receiver, what you got there? CD Lamb, 8100. The upside's still there. Has two games of 100 plus and within his past five coming off of a down game which is always fun for receiver variants. He has the best floor sealing combo in my early simulations for the week and stacks with Dak Prescott means I can get a Dak Travis ETN CD Lamb stack without really breaking the bank and I feel pretty good about that. My second love Chris Godwin. Now I'm not saying that I prefer him to Mike Williams straight up but Jim has Mike Williams in his love side. Sorry. We had so much overlap I was like how can I at least differentiate but Chris Godwin's like the only constant in the Buccaneers offense right now. We're going to want to have some you know bangles as we talked about so what else do we do other than Chris Godwin? I like this game enough you know and Godwin now has a 24% targets here in three post-buy games for 11.7 targets per game just the 76 yards per game which I know Jim's going to hate on but he does have yardage upside through volume kind of like a lower salary keen and Allen. He's been trending up with his efficiency. We got to remember he's coming off a serious injury. He's just like the only guy I could plug in in a bring back and I think that he's going to get 12 targets with a chance for a solid game and a bring back so. Lower salary keen and Allen is accurate and that does increase my interest. I think that's a fair way to put it. So you didn't talk me into it but you did not I'm not out out. I'll say that. So good job. I mean I'd rather play Chris Godwin with Jamar Chase than Jamar Chase with some other receiver like without the correlation. Like Christian Kirk. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Fair. Third love. I guess I'm going to Cowboys here. Michael Gallup. $5,700. He's just the best player below $6,000 at receiver. Need to save salary. So again like I might have two or three guys below $6,000 this week which is weird but the studs are really studly for this week. Better overall situation than what Elijah Moore's offense has. So I'm not going to prioritize Moore over Gallup or Corey Davis over Gallup. He's the most elite Ariards value in my model for this week. The Jags are not particularly good against receivers 25th and adjusted Fandall points per target. Yeah. If I was on DJ Chark against the Jags Michael Gallup is DJ Chark like in a different uniform. So like why would I not be there? Gallup is also my third love of 57 for the exact same reason. So do love Gallup. My first love is Jamar Chase because even on Thursday not knowing that if we have Jalen Warren or Damien Harris I can still build lineups with both Jamar Chase and Derek Henry. If I'm going to make consolations and I am a 37% target share for Chase in games with T Higgins Outer Limited I guess just limited because he hasn't he's technically played every game so far this year but Chase has at least 12 targets and all those he's had 129 129 yards 50 yards and 119 so one clunker but still this offense is clicking better now than it was earlier on this year. So Chase I think at 9000 well worth that salary. My second love is Mike Williams because the Titans cornerback plays the weak spot of their offense or the weak spot of their defense. It's a pretty solid bring back for Henry lineups at a lower salary just six targets for Williams in his first game back but a lot of yards while facing coverage from Xavier and Howard they're playing indoors he makes big plays Mike will back in the menu this week and then Michael Gallup was my third love tight end what you doing there? I'm going to prioritize Travis Kelsey this week. If you build around Dak you can still build like Dak Henry Etn Kelsey stacks without completely punting all of your receiver spots is doable. The Texans have faced just 85 tight end targets which is around average at this point in the year but they've allowed the highest target per route rate to the position. How does that happen? And they basically played nobody at tight end with the pulse or like they played the Titans but that was before a concoil was like elevated to a bigger role the guys that they did play there's really been two Dallas Goddard and Dalton Schultz Goddard had a hundred yards and a touchdown Schultz had 10 targets and 87 yards I think that this is an eruption spot waiting to happen for Kelsey who hasn't done it in a few weeks and if he does we're going to need that so I think that everything lines up for Kelsey this week. Second love Cole Comet definitely stacks on the bring back side of Hertz but also like Devonte I'm not going to do a Goddard Comet like double tight end stack or anything but when I do play Justin Fields it's going to be tied fairly often to Comet the target shares in single games are elevated 20% or more in five straight and the last time we saw Justin Fields threw for a season high and passing yards ran at a season low rate I don't know how how much that'll stick but Comet at 53 makes a lot of sense He was my second love too I think the only downside of Comet is that he kind of looks like Max Verstappen so I kind of like kind of punchable but seven targets in that one game without Darnell Mooney he's had yardage upside obvious bring back for Joan Hertz lineups I think there's a lot of lots like there my first love though is actually that same game which means I can't stack them because I don't want to go two tight ends but I do like Dallas Goddard at six thousands I'm guessing people will probably not be there in his first game back but he was talking in the locker room like a week or two ago about how he was ready to go for this game which means I don't think he'll be super limited for this one people probably won't roster him because he has an IR tag next to him until 4 p.m. on Saturday so I think $6,000 for a crazy efficient tight end in a good game on an offense I like a lot I think that's pretty fun for me defense enlighten me what you got I got the Broncos they might be the best value in my model all year at defense the highest that I can remember they're gonna be chalky and you have to worry about that a little bit with defense but you can differentiate where you want I think the Jets work the Bengals Chargers Falcons puntable as well but you can talk to me about the Broncos as well here yeah Broncos my favorite at 37 I think they're like my the default one I put in if I want to save some salary I am okay going down to the Falcons who you alluded to okay with the Chargers as you mentioned as well Bengals actually a decent number of defenses below 4,000 this week Raiders against Screen and Mack Jones can you imagine if anyone else were like screaming at their office according to the way Mack Jones is the discourse would be having around it it's so annoying to me anyway so Raiders at 39 in play Jets at 41 in play so I just stole your list sorry Panthers at 42 as well did you say them no I I cut it off with the Jets there we go but I think they're all in play spend down a defense this week because we actually have decent options for doing so any final thoughts for you Brandon before we close the show for this week keep an eye on the news see what value opens up this feels like one of those slates where we're going to we talked for an hour and a half about the slate and then we're going to get no nodgy or like no Ramon Dre or something else weird that happens and please right so I pray and that will change a lot if we don't you know you have to make concessions and maybe you do end up going a little bit more balanced but I think that the studs are worth chasing this week and I'm okay with a little bit less perfect value for this week to make that happen 100% same with me and if you have questions about like guys feel free to tweet us I don't know Brandon will check us Twitter but like I'll check my Twitter on Sunday just sign me up for that yeah yeah I'll check it so you can tweet at me I'll try and I'll answer questions if you have questions about like value plays a pop-up stuff like that more than happy to take questions on Sunday morning but that is all that we have here for today we'll be back with you once again Monday to recap at all final recap show of the year because the holidays coming up the end of the season coming up so get that by subscribing to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear leave us a rating in our view as well Brandon if people have questions for you on Twitter where can they find you there I'm on Twitter at Goodwill 13 GD ULA 13 and I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the FanDuel Podcast network at FanDuel Podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you with your DFS lineups in week 15 we'll talk to you once again Monday for the final recap podcast of the year this has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire