 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader.com nightly update show. Everybody is doing well. I hope everybody had a great three-day weekend, whether you celebrated Easter or not. Hopefully you got some rest, some quality time with family, with friends, with loved ones. Again, at the end of the day, that is what it's all about. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, thank you very much for the one filing us. The only thing we ask if you enjoy the content, take a second, hit the like button, subscribe, share, and all that good stuff, and I'll try to really give you an unbiased take of the market on a day-to-day basis. Let's talk about the tape. Friday, the market was closed. It was a good Friday, but there wasn't any data that wasn't left out, right? Always ask them data. Data always comes out. Traders, whether the market's open or not, are always going to try to digest it, and they're going to try to figure out what happens next. Friday, the PCE data came in, and there was a brief Q&A session with Sharon Powell. He basically said it was in line with expectations. And when you woke up this morning, right, you saw the futures, NASDAQ futures up 100 points, everything was surging. The doubt of futures up, everything was big, everything was great. And then yada, yada, yada, here we are. The doubt closed down 240 points, S&P down 10, and the NASDAQ finished off slightly in the green 17 points. But the biggest issue of what we're continuing to see here, especially if you've been an active participant to the market, is kind of the sideways pattern. Again, it's not a bad thing that the last thing you want to turn around and try to read a little bit more into it. But if you look at the last one, two, three, four, five, six, seven closes of the NASDAQ 100, you'll see five of them are red closes, which basically means a red candle, which basically means a close that is lower than the open, and you had two channels, right? You had two channels that were right in the middle of the channels. And the point is what I'm trying to make is the buyers and sellers are kind of comfortable here. That's not a bad thing. The bad thing is if you're an active trader and you're looking for 95 subs throughout the day, you're probably not going to get it. That's why we always try to specialize in one specific group, especially the heavyweight mega cap technology names. But the point is when the market rests, you rest as well. Luckily for us, we had some pretty aggressive pivots, especially at the open today. And the market literally did nothing else for the rest of the day. But the most important part is the sideways action is continuing to give us very definitive lines in a sense. So for example, to the downside, if you were watching the video in the last week, you know that last week's lows is going to be a definitive factor kind of going forward. This 441.93 area to the downside. And we have this whole channel here above 448. So 441.90 to the downside 448. The upside, as you can see here, we're right in the middle. Now, what does that middle mean, right? There's only X amount of time the digestion channel can play out, right? Eventually, somebody has to take a step forward, whether it's the bulls or the bears, but somebody has to take control. It looked this morning that it was going to be a runaway train. Matter of fact, if you look at the first bar here, right? If you look at the first bar here, literally at the open here, let me just show you. Forget about this one here. Let me just get rid of this one. Refresh all. Okay. So if you look at the initial bar today, we just had this one big move up. Literally the cues went from 445 all the way to 447 on one bar. The problem is the next bar, they gave it right back. And now we're right back into this middle distribution channel. And the question is, well, how long is this channel going to last? Distribution is kind of an ugly word. If you've been watching this broadcast for many years, you kind of know that's like the ugliest word in a trade or vocabulary. Because again, there's not enough strength to push stocks higher and there's definitely not enough fear to push them low. We're kind of stuck in the mud here. Fortunately for us, like I said a few minutes ago, it's all about individual trades, not about the dynamics of the overall market. The distribution channel usually lasts about a week, week and a half tops. We're going into what? Date 8 tomorrow? So we're approaching a two week period of distribution. Something eventually has to come in, right? Something eventually has to give here in this pull and push type of scenario. It's almost like a game of chicken. The question is, can you be mature enough if you're an overall market sum up, right? If you're an overall market participant, you trade randomly, the hot stocks, can you really sit there for it to try to trade the hot stock of the day when the overall market is kind of sleeping? And that's a very, very honest question. For us, you know, I trade primarily 10 stocks, right? 10 stocks, 90% of the time. So they're always going to give us a channelable to the upside or to the downside because they have such a big average range. But if you are trading like, you know, at any random stock, like a Lowe's or a Target or a Moderna, you know, sometimes you'll get that really good move. But most of the time trading random stocks will give you random results. And this is why I kind of like today, you know, we'll get to the pivots in a second. But going into tomorrow, we do have a little bit of catalyst to potentially get us some pretty good trades. And let's talk about that. Number one, you have Tesla's delivery numbers coming out, I believe in the next 24 hours. I'm not really sure exactly when. I think it's going to be tomorrow before the market open. And I'll tell you, we've been talking about Tesla for a long, long time. I'd say we caught a nice pivot on Tesla to the downside. But there's not a lot of enthusiasm, guys. Again, you can be the biggest Tesla bull in the world. There's just not a lot of enthusiasm going into tomorrow's session, right? You see a slew of brokers kind of take down their estimates. I saw last week, I forgot what it was. Somebody took them down from 500,000 delivery number to like 465. You got a lot of really stale price targets on the stock. So I think for Tesla to really kind of get out of this doldrum, it really needs to knock it out of the park. Or to have such a, or in a other scenario, kind of have such a horrible number that everybody's sold out to the number that it rallies off the lows. But the problem is if the numbers get received as a stalemate or get received at phase value and they start taking down today's channel, yeah, the stocks are going to go lower. So it's very, very important. One notable thing that we did not see today on Tesla ahead of their delivery numbers was major bets. We really didn't see anything to the upside. We saw some 175 calls, we saw some 180 calls. We saw some 170 weeklies. We saw some 165 weeklies. But we didn't get that institutional runoff one after another after another to kind of give us at least a feel of what Wall Street predominantly institutional flow is obviously thinking. But again, it's not about what they're thinking. It's not about our opinions. Again, like I said for years, there's a million opinions. There's only one confirmation. So tomorrow we have the top of the channel. We were watching from two weeks ago and we have today's channel on the downside. Something's going to give tomorrow. At least this will give us some sort of pretty good trade tomorrow one way or another. NVIDIA. NVIDIA now has been sitting in this little channel here for the last three days. You can see it's literally holding on to this rising support. It's literally been defended in the same area three days in a row. Like we talked about on the weekend video, it needs to either lose the 20 day moving average or get above the five. As you can see here today, it got rejected off the five but held the 20. So again, another one of those stocks that because the market is going sideways because there's distribution, something eventually is really good, right? It's either going to reclaim back the five day moving average or lose the 20. Again, I have pivots on both sides. The one thing that we did see on NVIDIA today versus what we didn't see on Tesla, they actually did come back with some pretty good aggressive bets. We saw some weekly 920s, 940s. We saw some end of the month 970 calls. So at least we started seeing some institutional money flow. The problem is they took the stock red on the day at one point. It was down like eight, nine points. Granted, it held the bottom of the range. But now it's again still stuck on stupid, just like the majority of the Nasdaq 100 names. Matter of fact, if you look at the Nasdaq 100 names, there was only three or four that were green on the day. Everything else is going sideways. One of those names was Google. Google, we talked about this on the weekend update, finally broke out of a multi month channel. That's a very, very rare thing to see in this distribution cycle. But here we are, right? So Google got above this 153.78 level, which was the January 29th highs and closed within 20 cents of the highs of the day. Again, very, very good looking chart. One chart that we talked about over the weekend that was not good looking was Reddit, right? So Reddit had a great debut, had a nice run, and now it's basically teetering around the IPO lows. If you saw today and we talked about on the weekend video, well, if this thing starts closing below the IPO lows, there's going to be a problem, right? Houston, we don't have a problem just yet. But if Reddit tomorrow starts losing today's channel, yeah, I think there's more downside ahead. So you're kind of in this holding pattern of a dynamic move on the overall market, but it's okay. We don't trade the overall market, right? We don't trade the stock market. We trade a market full of stocks, and that's exactly what we have going into tomorrow. So let me give you guys a couple of ideas for tomorrow's session that I definitely like. You know, some long, some short, mostly short. Mostly short just because everything is moving up. Again, Reddit, I really like Reddit for tomorrow. It's going to get off of SSR. I think it's going to get off SSR tomorrow, short sale restriction. If it loses, keep an eye on this thing for tomorrow, guys. If it loses today's channel tomorrow, it should have another leg down. Look at Lululemon. They blew up on earnings about a week ago. It's just going sideways here. Let's lose in the bottom of the channel of its earnings lows. You should see the next leg down. So keep an eye on that. Google, like I said, broke out today from the January channel. That's very, very bullish. I'm going to use any weakness tomorrow into rising 60-minute support to try to get a bounce on this thing. This thing looks really, really good. So I'm watching this thing eat it tomorrow for a bounce into weakness off of a 60-minute channel or a break above today's highs for a potential move to this 158 level. That looks really, really good. And Tesla, again, Tesla is going to give us some sort of trade tomorrow, whether it's going to be to the upside, to the downside we don't know. This is obviously based on the numbers that will be delivered. But again, when you have such a low bar, and that's one of the things, if you guys remember a couple of quarters ago, maybe two, three quarters ago on Netflix, there was no enthusiasm on Netflix. Everybody knew their subscriber growth, at least in the States, was starting to slow down because of the password sharing. So there was no expectations. There was nothing ahead of their earnings. And they came out with a nothing, a nothing burger type of earnings. And because there was so little expectations, the stock rallied. Is it possible that happens tomorrow with Tesla? Of course it's possible. There's a shot. But the way Tesla's been trading, the way the stock has been kind of losing back, backtesting into support and almost lost the 10 day moving average today on the close. Again, it's going to be very, very tough to impress the shareholders, to impress the traders tomorrow. So they better come out with a gang buster delivery number, or we're going to, there's a good chance tomorrow we're going to have a conversation about a pivot that we took that hopefully will end all the way down here into this bottom Bollinger band. One of that. You had a really good aggressive session today in the morning. Again, not a lot of things triggered, but you didn't need a lot of things today. That was the whole point. Again, you only need one. We have this acronym, Yono, right? You only need one just because on beta when you catch one, they're not good for 2030 cents. They're good for two, three, four dollars. That's the whole point of trading the mega cap technology needs. So Tesla was good today. 175 30. If it builds below can flush. Here was Tesla took out the 75 30 lost the five to 10 went all the way down to 170 guys. I'm telling you watch this channel for tomorrow. If the news is that if the if the deliveries are not received well, it starts losing today's channel. This thing is going to backtest a lot more. So watch Tesla for tomorrow arm. I was watching for a flush and never got there. Google again broke out huge 152 25 needs to build Google just a massive, massive move on Google. Right from the word go took out the 52 and a quarter took out 53 78 the January eyes and yada yada yada. Here we are almost at 156 156 into the close. Square didn't confirm. JetBlue never confirmed Boeing never confirmed the only one confirmed. Oh yeah. Reddit got smashed 49 and 48 pre market lows. If it builds below can flush. Reddit went all the way down to the lower daily Bollinger ban of 44 30s. Again, this thing starts losing 44 guys. This thing is going to have the next leg down and meta was also on the open the problem with meta. I couldn't get it. It was just way too thin. There's no liquidity. They took it down like four or $5 before a pretty good reversal. And if you didn't trade today, right? This is kind of a this is kind of the morning summary today. This is a chart on Nvidia, but this is pretty much a chart on everything. Every technology name today, the market shot up out of a cannon. And then it is when completely belly flop right on the way down. So again, good session. We were desperately wedding. Well, not desperately, but I think every active trader is at least ready for the market to kind of pick a choose a side. We've been in this distribution cycle for about a week. It should end the next day or so. It does. We'll have a lot more clarity to which side the market wants to go next. Guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless and I will see you all in the field tomorrow. Take care.