 Mae'r Pwyllteig yn ei fod yn ymddi, yn ymddi i'ch ei ffordd, i fynd i'w gwaith i'r tyniol, neu'r bydd ymddi, i fynd i'r bwysig i'r ffordd arfer, ac mae'n gyfle i'r bwysig i'r bwysig am hynny, ac mae'n rhai yn benwyd i'r bwysig o'r ffordd i'u bwysig i'r bwysig, i fynd i'r bwysig i'r bwysig i'r bwysig i'r bwrddol, Ac rwy'n gweithio'r cwmhaen o'r cwmhaen o'r gwaith gyda'r cwmhaen o'r bwysig yn y gyrdd y fwn yn y rhan ac rwy'n meddwl i'w ddweud ei gweithio'r cyfnod yn ddiddordeb am ddau'r gwrthion ac rwy'n meddwl i'w ddweud ei gweithio'r gwrthion ac mae weithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gwrthion i'r oedd. Rwy'n meddwl i'w ddweud roedd yn y cwmhaen o'r gwaith, ac mae chael yn oed yn ardal i'r certhoedd anodd, y bufnwyr, a'r oedd ei wneud yn ysgrifennu'r bobl yn ysgrifennu. Roeddwn i'n golyg y gallwn i ffannau ysgrifennu sy'n gwneud i chi i gyd, a ddylu'n gwybod y ffannau'r bobl yn ysgrifennu, felly roeddwn i'n gwybod yn ysgrifennu ysgrifennu, y ffannau o'r bobl yn ysgrifennu, yw'r coffinion i'r dwylo'r projekty? Fyddwn i'r bobl yn ysgrifennu ysgrifennu, ond mae'n gwirio'n bobl yn ysgrifennu, ac mae'n mynd i ddweud, ond yn fath yn cael ei ddweud yn cael ei gweithio yn cael eu ddweud, a'r hyn sy'n argymell ar gyfer teimloedd yw'r llaw ddiadeth a'r llaw o'r 21 yma. Dylai'r llaw o'r llaw o'r llaw, dwi'n mynd i'r llaw i'r llaw, oedd mae'n mynd i'r llaw o'r llaw o'r llwyddiad have never been experienced by previous civilisations. They have been created by the advent of the modern industrial order and by the emergence of the digital world which is reshaping it all before our very eyes at the moment. And I want to propose to you that we're in the middle of probably the biggest series of technological changes ever in human history. Certainly in terms of their speed and their global nature. One way of understanding this is to compare the advent of the internet with the invention of writing. There are analogs between those, I think, because writing made possible the early civilisations. I also wrote a book on that once. But writing took 10,000 years to become diffused even to small elites in a relatively small number of civilisations. The internet is only 20 years old and it's completely transformed our lives on a global as well as on a personal level because when you get out your mobile phone it's a device which is about your personal life at the same time as it's a means of global communication. Mobile phones as computers are only something like 10 to 12 years old and now there are more mobile phones in the world than there are people. Not everybody has one but that border was passed about two months ago when it calculates anyway more mobile phones in the world than people. This is stupendous stuff. So I think we're like living along the edge of a wave of technological innovation and other kinds of social and economic innovation which follow from it, which if we don't insert into the European debate is not going to allow us to understand it properly. That would be my argument anyway. I think we're like frontiers people in 18th century America really against a frontier of a surge of massive scientific and technological innovation. I'm on a committee in the House of Lords studying the digital world and we've had representations from many different companies, individuals, scientists, thinkers. It is just mind blowing what is happening. I will portray what's happening as like a completely new mixture of risk and opportunity such as we've never had to disentangle before. So on the one hand you have risks associated with climate change that I mentioned earlier which simply have no precedent in prior civilisations. No civilisation could have intervened in nature remotely to the degree to which ours has. Many people will probably know that geologists have got a new word for this. They say we've entered the age of the hollow scene, H-O-L-O-C-E, an age in which nature is no longer nature because it's been so completely penetrated by human activity and I think this is correct. So we've penetrated massively into what used to be an independent external world that constitutes a resource for us but also posing us huge new risks which we know we're near in my view adequately coping with. That's true of the outer world. This is also happening in the inner world. One of the things that's really impressed me taking the evidence on this committee is the degree to which we're now penetrating the human mind and the human body on a level again, never ever even contemplated before I think. And there's some very interesting thing because you're working on this and I have people here know Ray Kurtz vile whether you know the debate on singularity. The debate on singularity is debate about the point of which we will cease to be authentic human beings or we'll be so different that we won't any longer be as it were human beings. And Ray Kurtz vile wrote this book called The Singularity is Near in which he argues that there is the possibility of immortality within 40 years so that younger people are alive today might be immortal. Immortality would mean not what you just think immediately of a preserved body it would be a very different way of example if you could download the brain on a computer and you could clone bodies you could live for as long as you wanted in whatever guides you chose. Of course no one knows but the most important thing about it the reason why I like Kurtz vile is now by the way the technical director of Google so he's got a kind of somewhat noxious possibly practical impact on the world because lots of things Google does that I don't really prove up I must say but nevertheless he's an information scientist so he's a serious person but we just don't know so part of my argument is also that we're living in a kind of don't know world because the pace changes so dramatic of course you never knew the future obviously logically it's true if we know the future it wouldn't be the future I'm not talking about the fact that we're in a world with truly turbulent change very rapid and global which is largely unprecedented therefore that's the reason why I call it a high opportunity high risk society the opportunities are immense but the risks are huge too and we don't know in advance how those two sorts of things will be connected so I wanted to argue to you that we have to understand what try and assess the implications of what's happening inside the EU against the context of these broader global trends if we don't do that we might misunderstand both what's happening within the European Union countries and the remedies that are needed to address the issues that are raised so I'm arguing that a good deal of the debate about the European Union is too parochial you can understand why it's so concerned with the euro so concerned with Europe itself but it's a mistake to make it too parochial I think and second to institutional too concerned with for example reform of political systems very important reform of the euro very important but that isn't necessarily going to address these lateral trends which are impinging on all societies across the world so I was sort of asking you if you treat this speech a bit like a wine tasting that is I wanted to go through four areas where I think this is interesting in respect to the current debates about the European Union I won't be able to discuss any of those in the detail you would need to exhaustively examine them but just to give a kind of taste to why I think we absolutely must understand our local problems in Europe against a much broader global background and remember when one talks about global you're not talking just about their global you're talking about in here global because what global means is now the connection between even the very core of the self and the larger global changes we're experiencing so these are my four sort of substantive points which I'd like to raise and get your reactions to first it seems to me crucial to understand that populism is not confined to Europe not at all that the rise of populism in politics is part of a global trend it therefore comes from wider structural sources than purely European ones it's visible in the United States it's visible in Latin America visible in Australia and it's going along with like a fragmentation of politics in many countries in which the established two-party systems are no longer viable and in which many other formerly fringe parties are becoming a poor part of the political process such a core part that they probably settle elections this is likely to happen in the next British election where the reason no one can really predict it is you know what's going to happen around the edges both in terms of who votes and where but also the array of smaller parties that will probably settle the issue in British politics there's nothing British or European about this this is happening more or less everywhere it's worth discussing and I won't have time to discuss in detail why this should be so wise populism becoming so prominent wise politics becoming fragmented in so many democratic countries anyway well I think it stems fundamentally really from the world I've been describing that is you have a hierarchical word of traditional politics and you have a new horizontal world of electronic and digital technology which completely cuts across it and we have not found a way of effectively integrating those things in any kind of institutional fashion attempts like citizens, juries and referenda and so on haven't got very far to do that so there's a kind of huge hole there in politics and those things are overlapping with a failure of the developed economies to be able to redistribute wealth and income effectively many people in lower income groups are not seeing across the world any advance in their living standards even though there's talk of recovery everywhere and there is a substance to that talk in quite a few countries and that connects also I think with the experience of de-industrialisation de-industrialisation is deeply involved with the rise of populist parties in almost all countries because of the groups that it affects so you find some very interesting parallels between populists across the world they're nearly all against the establishment being against the establishment forms part of the discourse all this appears in the European populist parties but my point would be that in Europe we must disentangle these generic from other local influences so we mustn't assume that because the populist parties focus their attention on hostility to the European Union that the European Union is the origin of the things that they're objecting to to me the origins are deeper and perversely as a pro-European only through a stronger Europe can you hope to have some impact on them if Europe seriously became a cluster of nation states you have far less chance of having an impact on some of these forces than you would if you can create unified European actions so I think pro-Europeans have to find a way of making that case effectively we're dealing with huge forces here they're not within control of the United Nations or any democratic system on an international level we're seeing all this fall out on the uncertainty across the world at the moment even talked by the Pope two days ago of the existence of a third world war it's a kind of low grade world war three going on so we mustn't be too parochal we must sort out what's general and what is specific and we must produce our remedies in our political strategies accordingly I'm very happy to discuss that later second, there are absolutely sweeping changes affecting the economy on a global level and it seems to me that although it's quite right to say there is a cyclical element obviously following the crisis in the economic travails of Europe and the United States and other countries across the world I would want to make the argument that the crisis is also structural and it can't be resolved purely by anti cyclical measures important they will be because I completely by the argument myself that we need renewed investment in Europe we must breach the gap between north and south we were talking about lunchtime for this meeting Germany must change its attitudes otherwise Europe could relapse into deep troubles but when you look at what's happening on the ground in work it is just transformational I think and it's dominated by the digital revolution so when in my household's committee we started studying the digital economy many of us thought the digital economy is one little bit of the wider economy but we rapidly came to see that the whole economy is becoming digital just like the whole of our personal lives become digital through the fact you wander around the streets you can't let go of your bloody mobile phone you're lost if you lose your mobile phone you've probably got an iPad at home et cetera et cetera et cetera amazing transformation in such a short period and so I've been working tracking some of these changes and what you have is like a convergence between the advent of supercomputers robotics and big data which are transforming large chunks of economic life also of political life and also warfare the US has about 7,000 drones in the air every day a drone is essentially a robot still relatively primitive robot but you're having these convergent developments so I don't know if anyone here has trapped the IBM computer Watson Watson engaged in a TV confrontation with the two champions at this game Pergamon computers have long been able to beat the world champions at chess but chess is mathematical Pergamon is a word game, general knowledge game and the IBM computer beat the two world champions on three separate occasions at this game was never thought possible before you go about 10 years and people were saying computers could never master natural language because natural language is embedded in reality and so on and could never write poetry could never do translation but now you have supercomputers do very good accurate natural language translations are able to think creatively and can actually learn this is a sort of huge thing for all of us linked to what Kurzweil is talking about a potential transcendence of the human being but deeply involved in the transformation of work as is robotics because robotics has advanced amazingly even in the last 10 years I went to the Sony Media Lab I think it was about 12 years ago where they said the future is robotics but their bloody robot couldn't do anything couldn't even walk upstairs now you've got robots that can run faster than human being that can jump in the air, that can play soccer that can do all sorts of well many things better than human beings now you've even you'd be interested in know what a robot stand-up comedian that invents its own jokes and can respond to the audience in a creative way I'll tell you one of its jokes it's quite good actually I started going up with an Apple device but it didn't really work because she was always either side that either other quite good I thought really and the truth is this is again you know high opportunity high risk scenario for us some calculations have been done by these guys in Oxford, Carl Frey and other people that supercomputers could knock out 40% of existing professional jobs in the US economy they did this by very detailed tracking of those jobs they include legal jobs, scientific jobs, accountancy and so forth it's possible that these developments could cut a swath through existing labour forces but having looked at it in some detail myself I tend to think not, I think the opportunity side is pretty huge and I think where it's very important for Europe is that it also is likely to produce a new localism and I'm one of those who thinks that many people here might not share my opinion but to me it's very important we must counter de-industrialisation I think de-industrialisation has been a lethal force in western countries and you can't simply allow it if we can do anything about it just to go on and get worse so therefore we must try to reconstruct manufacturer against the background of these technological changes in the back again wider changes in the position of the Chinese economy and so on where China should be investing in domestic demand not just exporting to the rest of the world I take seriously at least the possibility of re-industrialisation in Europe and I've been tracking that debate in the United States it's been going quite controversial but it's been going about 15 years now you have for example widespread development digital production 3D printing which can be done anywhere is just the outer edge as I would see is a much wider transformation towards digital production much of which could be re-localised and from which everybody in the world economy would probably gain so I was pleased that Mr Yonka put high on his agenda the possibility of re-industrialisation of Europe it's admittedly controversial and it's against the background we don't really know but I think we have to take it seriously it involves more than the forces I'm just describing of course it involves a kind of restructuring the world economy too it involves the so-called reshoring debate and other things going on in the area but I think if de-industrialisation simply continues I just don't see how we're going to address the socio-economic issues that it brings in its train so I think we have to make a serious attempt without fully knowing in what sense and where it will be possible a lot of these changes do seem to me to be positive not just destructive third and this comes back to what we're talking about at lunch time today I think we need a radical re-thinking of the European social model and I'm just amazed how separate the debate about the future of Europe has been from this I get invited to a lot of conferences on European social model and quite a lot of conferences on the future of Europe but it never seemed to come together it seemed to be different people working on them why is that? I think it's because of the separation which is kind of enshrined in people's minds and enshrined in European thinking really between economic and social policy and the kind of traditional idea of the welfare state whereby the economy creates wealth and then the welfare state spends it on good purposes and does so through taxing the people who make the wealth that's surely an outdated way of thinking about it all that's why I invented this term that was referred to as social investment state because I think we have to recognise the investment in social goods also as economic consequences and if you get it right this can be very significant for economic prosperity in obvious cases education but there are many other eras where I think we should speak of a social investment state in other words you don't want to wait just to redistribute after wealth has been created you want to build that into the very constitution of the economy by the investments you make so an investment in education is not just an investment in improving people it's also creating a certain kind of labour force and one of the things that's happened again in this famous committee that I mentioned several times is we've discovered just how poor the quality of training and education relevant to living in a suddenly developing a universal digital age is sort of way behind I'm also glad that Mr Ynchry is talking about that and I hope that I might have had some sort of marginal impact on it all I think we have to have a pretty radical rethink of the European social model and part of that is the move towards treating it as a social investment state the other though is to lock on to these technological transformations and I think there is something very significant potentially going on here I work in universities and probably some other people do here you'll know about the advent of mass open online courses well those are forms of courses carried online where you can interact with other people in a seminar group across the world so much in real time bit like on Skype as it were you can see the other people those people might be anywhere in the world at the moment you don't pay anything for the course in principle these could reach many millions of people again it's like a don't know future some people think this will seriously undermine campus based universities other people think it might only have a marginal impact but what's happening in universities is happening everywhere so if we're really going to transform the medical system if we're really going to transform prisons there's probably got to be a fairly leading high tech digital edge to it all and I'd like to propose to you that what could happen is like a reversal of Foucault I don't know how many people have studied Michel Foucault Foucault pointed out late 18th century you've got the invention of the workplace you've got the invention of the school you've got the invention of the prison you've got the invention of the university organisations situated in specific times and places were constructed about that period he says because you needed to discipline people in those places while it's at least possible we'll see a radical reversal of that I think over the next 10 to 20 years even not over a long period or potentially a short period when these things could become again decentralized and de-centred with the usual mix of risk and opportunities but perhaps the opportunities side being pretty huge because an enormous amount of medicine can now be done at distance enormous amount of treatment can be done by self-monitoring devices if you have a pacemaker now it can send information back to a surgeon or a hospital on a routine basis you can see that some of these things could be noxious of course they could but they might be a fundamental part of the solution how are we going to create a 21st century welfare system which deals with the problems of ageing which deals with the demographic problems that we have in such a way that we're not leaving people simply outside of the system and destitute I'm not saying it will, I'm saying it's another don't know kind of universe but the more you look at it the more interesting it seems to me it is so if you go to universities I think we're certainly going to get a sort of mix really of MOOCs and traditional campus based teaching I think MOOCs are quite transformative and they could track what happened to telephones in Africa you know in African countries they bypass fixed telephone systems in favour of mobiles and simply skip that stage where the same thing could happen with university education you probably will get amalgams of these systems and since you're dealing with very rapid changes here these are not just things for any kind of remote future they're all kind of here and now things at least in my opinion where the advances are just stunning and some of them are medicine supercomputers can now decode aspects of the genetic construction of the human body which no human being could ever have done before you combine that with nanotechnology you have just immense possibilities of medical treatment way beyond anything we ever thought possible and again there's a more or less here and now thing I don't think it's just a remote future thing the more detail you get into it the more stunning it actually is I'm not saying it doesn't have noxious consequences it does all of it is a massive tangle of recent opportunities my fourth point is the return of sectarian divisions which is visible everywhere and is not again just a phenomenon in Europe so you see the rise of nationalism but also of other forms of closed idea systems so the internet which at first seemed to many people to be an intrinsic instrument of cosmopolitanism turns out to a very dark side indeed I think which was not appreciated by its early pioneers in which we were only starting to discover the consequences of so if you look at ISIS or IS, as it now calls itself it's a quite extraordinary mix of the medieval and avant-garde because ISIS deploys the latest forms of information technology it does most of its recruiting online it has very sophisticated monitoring systems it beheads people online as everybody knows it's quite extraordinary mixture therefore not just a return tradition I think it's a kind of creation of the very world we're talking about which is bringing in to play a lot of dark forces alongside the more liberating ones and like everybody probably many people here are cracking Scottish referendum and I don't want to go straight from ISIS, Scotland of course and that's quite amazing I found that also mind blowing because the Scottish referendum was just the opposite of a parochial event it was being tracked everywhere not just by separatist groups which it was but also by others too across the world and you can read it all on the internet you can see the Kurdish newspapers discussing it newspapers in Russian media use Scotland a lot when talking about Crimea but it's actually a global thing the same thing in Kashmir it's quite amazing it could never have been possible before but it's been like a complex global dialogue about it all many separatist groups of course using it as a basis of their own legitimacy and Catalonia in Europe is the next one along as we all know potentially followed by the Basque Country potentially followed by six or seven other possible ones but it is really global and I must say I never expected that really it just shows you the sort of intensity of globalisation in the world in which we live so my argument is that we have to therefore situate our own specific discussions in this broader context otherwise we'll get the causes of them wrong and the possible remedies for them wrong I want to conclude by saying that this is a time in which Europe is more or less everywhere seen as problematic I think if you look at what Chinese say about Europe or in Russian say about Europe or discussion of Europe or even Australia it's unremittingly dismissive of the European Union look at some Mr Putin's speeches and see what he's been saying in Europe for quite a long while Europe seems unable to generate effective economic growth seems plagued by divisions obviously where the populist tinge and because of Russia has a sort of semi-active war going on on its periphery looks really disturbing and yet having gone through it all it just seems to me is a possibility that Europe might be in a better position not a worse position than the other major industrial countries in the world in coping with the world which is coming into being and even being a leading factor in it because whatever else it is Europe is a cosmopolitan endeavour it does offer the possibility of shaping global forces the opposite view of sovereignty from most people most people say when you join the European Union you sacrifice part of your sovereignty I think the opposite is true I call this sovereignty plus in my book you get more real sovereignty in the independent world from being part of the European Union then you would ever get outside and shouldn't confuse formal sovereignty with real sovereignty in the independent world and finally an awful lot of reform has happened in the European economies including some of the most problematic ones admittedly not all of the problematic ones but I think if you compare the European Union with the United States the divisions between the poorest parts of Europe and the most affluent parts are actually less than they are between the poorer states and the more affluent states in America and the level of reform has been lower I think in the United States in those areas so I don't feel as pessimistic about it as one might do and I think if we could somehow get our act together in Europe further not succumb to divisiveness there's a possibility that Europe could in fact even against this apparently disturbing situation in these three areas again represent something of a beacon to the rest of the world not just a laggard but this is the high opportunity, high risk society we just don't know the future anymore not in the logical sense but in the sense in which you cannot know in advance how the balance of risk and opportunities will turn out you must try and assess it and place political policy in such a way as to confine the risks and accentuate the opportunities but none of that is going to be easy but I don't think Europe is in a worse position than the other industrialised parts of the world thank you very much for your attention