 Mr. Minister, Mr. Chairman, dear colleagues, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. It's a great pleasure again to come back to Dublin and to share with you our views on the global energy system. Mr. Chairman was completely right when he described the task of the virtual energy outlook. To stop and think is what we aim. But one more perhaps I can add to that, Mr. Chairman. Stop, think, and walk in the right direction. So this is also, we are not only reading the game, but what needs to be done, how we are going to, if possible, to fix the problems that we are facing. We published our book about two weeks ago in London, and since then we are sharing our views with different colleagues, with different audiences. And I just arrived here from New York, in the United States, thank you, in the United States, different concerns, different news and different perception. But I can tell you that the Americans are very, together with the Canadians, very happy with our findings. But what I told them is don't get too excited. And I will tell you why I told them don't get too excited too quickly, because we have major challenges in front of us, which are not only affecting the rest of the world, but also the America and Canada and the rest of the world as well. So, let me start. First of all, the context we are in. A key message in our work is, as Mr. Minister alluded as well, the foundations of global energy system are shifting rapidly. And this is driven by three major factors why it is shifting. First one is, in some unexpected encode, countries, we see a major increase in oil and gas production. What are those countries, United States, Canada, these two, as a result of an unconventional energy revolution that I am going to describe in a minute, but also another country which you may not have heard a lot in terms of energy context, Iraq. Why Iraq is an unexpected or non-business as a country, you may think that Iraq is also another country in the Gulf, but Iraq is a very different investment framework compared to some other Gulf countries. Any international company can go and invest in Iraq, but it is not like that in the other major Middle East countries where, by constitution, it is only the people in those countries can invest. So, there is an investment freedom, anybody can go, capital can flow in. Second, Iraq is run a bit differently than some other countries in the region, how the country is run. So, this is the first thing, U.S., Canada, and Iraq, it is growing. But nuclear power, after Fukushima, there is a major change in the perception of nuclear power worldwide, especially in OECD countries. Germany, Switzerland, already the phase out, close the door for nuclear power. Japan, where it gets a lot of energy from nuclear, set a target 0 percent by 2030. And even in France, where I live, the, you know, the three-fourth of the French electricity comes from nuclear power, President Hollande, reconfirmed what he said during the campaign. He wants to see a lower share of nuclear power by the year 2025. Just two weeks ago, he put the statement, and there are some steps by the French government in that direction. But what happens in nuclear power is not only important for the nuclear industry, but also for the other competing fuels. Because if nuclear goes down, something has to come up in order to compensate the decline. It can be natural gas, renewables, coal depending on the country. But in the, especially in OECD countries, we see a retreat from the plants in terms of nuclear power. The third one, which is not yet very well known, but we will see the implications later, that there is a growing momentum on energy efficiency. The biggest one is in China. China has, China runs its energy, it's through five-year plans. And the last China five-year plan, 12 five-year plans, set a very significant target in terms of energy efficiency improvement for the next five years. In Europe, as Mr. Minister explained in an excellent way, we have now energy efficiency directive. In United States, we have now, after years and years of discussions, so-called CAFE standards, which is improving the fuel efficiency of the cars. Big improvement for the United States, by the way. So putting a first Obama administration has successfully introduced, in United States, the car economy, there's a fuel efficiency standard for the cars to make the cars use energy in a more efficient way so less oil will be used. And also in Japan, there is a very strong target in terms of electricity savings. So there is a growing momentum in many countries, but in terms of energy efficiency. We are not yet there, I will come to it in a minute, energy efficiency, but it is important to highlight this because this moves on energy efficiency will have an impact on the demand side of the energy equation. Sometimes we will see that. Couple of other points, oil prices. We have very high oil prices, ladies and gentlemen. When we talk about the oil prices, high oil prices, many of us think one number, $2,847. This is the first number that comes to our mind, but this is not right. Because how the oil prices affect the economy is not because of one day, but the duration of the time is very important. How long do you have the high prices? And when you look at the year 2012, this year, when you look at the oil prices, of January of this year, up to today, mid-November, the average oil prices of this year is the highest oil prices in the history. We have never had such high prices, which serious impact on the economies in terms of when we think of the weak recovery, fragile recovery efforts in terms of economy. And in the countries where the gas prices are indexed oil prices, a double problem. When I talk about the natural gas prices, we see a major picture, a major disturbance between different countries. Today in Europe, natural gas prices are up to five times higher than the United States. And in Japan, it is about eight times higher than United States. This is spectacular, five times eight times. And it is even more striking, if you remember or if you think, that only five years ago, not much, five years ago, natural gas prices in these three regions were more or less the same, perhaps only one dollar difference. But within five years of time, there was a period of the prices more or less, and now five times more expensive in Europe and eight times in Asia, in Japan. And this will have major implications. I will come to that in terms of the big picture, in terms of the economic competitiveness. And a couple of points on the unsustainability issue. Beautiful, in the virtual energy outlook, every year, one of the issues we stubbornly and consistently look into is the fossil fuel subsidies, subsidies for oil, coal, and gas, mainly coming from the emerging countries, Middle East, China, India, and other Asian countries. And last year, it was more than half a trillion dollar for fossil fuel subsidies, which gives a major input for CO2 emissions growth. In Europe, we have a CO2 price just to discourage the people to use fossil fuels, which is about sometimes $10, sometimes a bit higher, sometimes over. And we are thinking, how can we increase the CO2 prices that people have considered as a factor in their decision making? It is so insignificant now that nobody more or less cares about the carbon price when they make important energy decisions in the order of $10. And $500 billion of fossil fuel subsidies mean an incentive to pollute the world with the order of $110 per ton of CO2. You encourage people by giving them $110 per ton of CO2, and you compare them, we try to discourage the people with $10 CO2 price. There is a big difference between those two. So therefore, I believe fossil fuel subsidies are the public enemy number one for the fight against climate change, because bulk of the growth of CO2 emissions come from them. Another point, which I think some of you may know, last June, we made a major statement about the CO2 emissions, saying that there was an increase about one gigaton in 2011, a spectacular growth of CO2 emissions, and brought the CO2 emissions at the record high, and out of this one gigaton, 50% was coming only from China and from other countries. And again, mainly from the countries which subsidize fossil fuels, and when you subsidize, it is so cheap that it is used in a very wasteful manner. And renewable energy is going through difficult times, the industry. In the last 10 years, global renewable energy investments increased year by year, every year. But for the first time in the year 2012, we see a decline in the global renewable energy investments for a few reasons that I will come in a minute. And I think this is definitely a bad news for addressing the climate change. Another issue, which is close to my heart, our hearts and the VO team, and we've pushed the agenda since 10 years, is the access to energy of poor. What is that? It is the following. Today, 1.3 billion people, about 20% of global population, they have no electricity. They have no access to electricity. In Sub-Saharan Africa, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, 1.3 billion people. And this is not only a statistics. Parents cannot keep the medication for their children in the refrigerator. You don't have a linkage with the external world. The day finishes for them much earlier than for us. This is a real issue, real life. And when we look at the future, despite the economic growth in all these countries, despite the technological improvements worldwide, in 2035, in the current situation, there will be still 1 billion people who will have no access to electricity, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa. And I think this is not only an energy issue, not only an economic issue, but beyond that perhaps a moral issue for all of us. Lastly, in our outlook, we focus on a topic which we think will be more and more important in the energy sector in the next years to come and wanted to give a wake-up call, namely the issue of water for energy production. Today, about 15 percent of the global water use is because of energy for cooling the power plants, for the fossil fuel production, for biofuels production and others. And we think this number will grow substantially. And the availability of water for energy production will be a critical factor in determining the economic viability of many energy projects. Currently, when we have energy projects, we think what is the fuel cost, what is the construction cost, this and that. But we have to think more and more how much does it cost to bring the water from which distances and how does it affect the general economics of my project. Now, let me look at the future now. When we look at the future, this is not a good news for the agency that I am working for, the International Energy Agency, which means the following. When IEA, whose members are basically OECD countries, U.S., Canada, European countries plus Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand, their share in the global energy use in the mid-70s was about two-thirds of the global energy use. And very soon it will decline to one-third only. And which countries are dominating the game, China, India and Middle East in terms of energy use? And this means, ladies and gentlemen, center of gravity of energy use is shifting to East, slowly but surely. And we have to look to understand what is happening in the global energy markets. We have to look more and more to Beijing and New Delhi to see what will be the implications for us in the next years to come. Now, a bit under what is happening in the United States, because this is not only for U.S. but for all of us, as you will see in a minute. In the United States, conventional oil production was declining years and years, and it was a major concern for Americans. But as a result of technological developments, which is called the fracking technology, we see a major return in the U.S. oil production, which is the so-called shale oil, tight oil and unconventional oil, which makes the U.S. production grow again after years and years of decline. It is the so-called V-curve. And as a result of that, our expectation is around 2017, United States will be the largest oil producer of the world, overtaking Saudi Arabia. Second, in terms of natural gas, more or less the same picture, the conventional gas production was declining years and years, and the same technology made a big jump in the so-called shale gas, unconventional gas production, and U.S. gas production is growing very strongly. Only in the last five years, U.S. gas production, five years, increased about 200 B.C.M., which is equal to the current gas exports of Russia, only in five years of time. And we think with those trends around 2015, United States will be clearly the top natural gas producer of the world, overtaking Russia. So in other words, within 10 years of time, U.S. will be the top oil and top gas producer of the world, mainly as a result of the major technological breakthrough in the fracking technology. And I will come to the implications of this for all of us. One of the implications is the Middle East. When I was having the privilege to discuss with Mr. Minister, Mr. Minister immediately told, what about implications for Middle East? He's completely right. There will be implications for Middle East-U.S. relationships. At least in terms of trade, I can tell you about that. Some of you who were following the U.S. presidential campaign, I should say campaigns in the last couple of campaigns, one of the major preoccupations of the nominees is the reliance on Middle East oil. There was a major topic on that. Unfortunately, no discussion on climate change, but a lot of discussion on this issue. But when you look at the numbers, it was right. Until recently, United States was importing a significant chunk of this oil from Middle East. But very soon, we expected the U.S. imports from Middle East will go to a minimum, if not to zero. So this may have major implications for the international oil markets, but maybe well beyond that. For Middle East, for example, until recently, Middle East was exporting half of its oil to West, half to East. But now what we see is that the bulk of the Middle East oil, the exports, will go to Asia. About 90% will go to Asia. And there will be a growing trade linkage between Gulf, Middle East Gulf, and Beijing and New Delhi, big trade access. And I am sure many of you are much more experienced than me in foreign policy. This trade access will have parallel access in terms of the foreign policy, defense, and other issues. So what happens in the United States is changing almost many well-known parameters. I mentioned to you Iraq. Why Iraq? First of all, country has huge resources, huge. You will see if we have chance in our book, those resource numbers. I don't want to bother you with those numbers, but I can bet you are wanting that those numbers in terms of resources will be very soon wrong, updated, and revised upwards. Because in the time of previous regime, years and years there was no exploration work. So when the exploration work has started now, and they will discover lots of new resources and numbers will go up, even though it is very, very rich now. So you find something if you look for. So they didn't look for oil and they didn't find oil. But even what they know, what they have is huge resources, oil and gas. And plus, it is very, very cheap to produce. We have colleagues from the companies who are working in that country, in this room, and they would second me that it is the production costs are extremely cheap. Just to give you an example, to produce one barrel of oil in Iraq is about 15 times cheaper than in Russia. Or 13 times cheaper than Canadian oil sands. So I can give you many, many examples, very, very cheap. Because geology is very easy. So the production is set to grow and the exports of Iraqi oil will go again to Asia and mainly to China. Two million dollars per day will go to China. And again, this threat access, I said there will be different directions. Oil will go to China and from China investments are coming to Iraq. Just to give you one example of this production growth, which is from our point of view, very modest. But for Iraqi government, when you compare with the Iraqi government, official projections, we are very, very low. We are very, very low. But of this production growth, 30% of this growth comes from the oil fields which are owned either directly or indirectly by the Chinese companies. So 30%, which is not a penis number. So therefore, I call it a B2B access. There will be a Baghdad to Beijing access in the next years to come. And this will be another one which we didn't know before, but it will be very strong in terms of the amount of money, amount of dollar going in both directions. Now, natural gas markets are also going through very exciting times. Exciting doesn't mean it is a good news for everybody, for some very good news, for some others very bad news. And for the remaining part, depends. I will explain what I mean. So what is happening is that the so-called shale gas revolution is affecting everybody. Four years ago, we said in the World Energy Outlook, and I have many statements like that, a silent revolution in the United States is starting. It was only four years ago. And that silent revolution now became very loud and beyond the United States is affecting everybody. If you use gas, don't use gas, produce unconventional gas, don't produce, it doesn't matter. Through different linkages, it affects everybody. I want to give you one example about Europe. Because I spent a lot of time going to meetings in Brussels, talking with my colleagues there, as I'm sure the colleagues from Dublin do. You know, if I tell you, if I would make a survey before the colleagues come here with the kind permission of the chairman, what do you think? Which countries were the top three countries in terms of coal consumption growth worldwide last year? Everybody would put China, of course, number one. But I think how many people would put number two in terms of highest coal consumption growth at all? Europe. Europe last year is at the highest coal consumption growth second highest in the world and the highest in its history in the 40 years because of the following. Natural gas penetrated the United States and it is a generation, substantially, and coal went out. And a lot of coal became available for exports and it was exported to Europe. And so much coal came and therefore the coal prices crashed and we have very low carbon prices in Europe as a result of that many people switched from gas to coal and we saw a major growth in coal consumption. Why I am giving this example is that the fact that it will affect everybody what is happening in the share gas and it is only the beginning now. Just wait and see what will come. And what we see is today, one impact, the trade, natural gas trade is very limited worldwide but as a result of new producers coming, US, Canada, a very important country, Australia, major projects Australia, encore machine gas is coming. And there we expected the trade will be much more pronounced, lots of trade, lots of new suppliers. And this is definitely a very bad news for the traditional gas exporters. At least for two reasons. One, the amount of gas they are going to export will be significantly less than what they thought before because some of the potential clients produce their own gas now. Even some of them became exporters. And second, since there will be a lot of trade, there will be new exporters, the pricing, what kind of pricing regime will be there will not be dominated or dictated by one or two players in the market. Currently, for example, in Europe, about three-fourth of the gas is indexed to oil prices, which is very bad news for the consumers and very good news for the exporters. But many countries are negotiating with the Russia and the other traditional gas exporters in order to improve the terms. Because if you don't give me your gas, the better price I can get from the other one. It's a big, big, big opportunity for the consumers now. Their hands are getting stronger. This is a gift given to Europeans by Americans. I am not sure it's deliberate. But this is a side effect, I should say. This is definitely making the hands of the Europeans and other importers stronger in terms of their negotiations with the traditional gas exporters. Now, energy security is a crucial subject for almost all governments. And it is also an integral part of the foreign policymaking now, energy security. Energy security and foreign policy is very much interwoven. And many countries, especially major countries, are taking this issue very seriously. For example, China. China imports today 15% of its gas and about 50% of it is oil. And China's government decision makers are very much preoccupied with this. And, of course, the development as well. Some of you might have followed two weeks ago. There was a Chinese Communist Party Congress and this was one of the key topics discussed, energy security. The same for Europe, India, and others. And when you look at the future, the situation becomes much worse. The import dependence on oil and gas will increase, therefore, vulnerability of their economies and the price fluctuations and the geopolitical events worldwide. And it will be much more difficult for those countries when they sit on the table for any subject with the producing countries because there is an issue of reliance on those countries for the oil and gas import needs. China is increasing, India is increasing, Europe is increasing, Japan cannot increase only 100%, but it's almost there. But there's one country which is going in a different direction, which is the United States. U.S. goes completely opposite direction. U.S. becomes a gas exporter and the U.S. oil imports go to a minimum. A big success story. Whatever you may like U.S., you may not like U.S., you may like this politician or not. These are completely irrelevant. This is a big success story, I can tell you this. But as I told our friends last week in U.S. and D.C., and I don't know if you have colleagues from media, when our book came out, they made a big splash in the newspapers, but they did cover only one part of the problem or the success story, I should say. U.S. success story, oil import dependence is getting less and less, going through self-sufficiency, energy independence and so on, is not only because of the growth in the domestic oil production, but also as a result of declining domestic oil consumption as a result of new fuel efficiency standards. This is very important. First, Obama administration, as I said, has successfully introduced in the United States that the cars can consume x amount of oil, not above that, and this will put a downward pressure on the domestic oil consumption. So there are two legs of the success story. One is the increasing production, and the second one is decreasing domestic oil consumption as a result of efficiency policies. I think these are concrete examples for all of us to understand that efficiency policies do pay back in terms of the cost, in terms of energy security, and I will show you in a minute, in terms of climate change. And this is a concrete example. Therefore, the newspaper articles were looking on one part of the problem or success story, which is a production growth, but the other one is the decline in the consumption as a result of efficiency policies. Now let me say a couple of things about electricity generation. We have a few colleagues here I understood from the utilities. In Japan, we expect a further decline of nuclear power. Gas and renewables are growing. In Europe, gas growing renewables mainly as a result of significant amount of subsidies and renewable energies. United States further penetration of natural gas call out renewables if they continue to enjoy the support, which will be decided at the end of this year in December by the president if they continue to enjoy the support renewables will grow. And in India, India is growing very strongly. India is a country which doesn't attack enough attention. But when you look at the numbers of India in terms of economy, energy, and anything, if there was no China, India would be the China because it's so big the numbers here. For example, India becomes around 2020 the largest coal importer of the world, a huge, and it will change many, many things what happens in India. But I should tell you something, one of the numbers about India is for me in this big book, most interesting number. We have a lot of numbers in the book, thousands of numbers, but this number is for me the most interesting or data is the most interesting one because it puts energy and the differences between rich and poor in a context. Despite this growth, huge growth in the electricity generation, electricity consumption per capita in India, the average electricity comes in by Indian, in the year 2035, 20 years from now, will be equal to the electricity consumption of an American in the year 1947. So there's still a hundred years of difference. There will be still a hundred difference between rich and poor yet to come. And this is, for me, shows that there will be still unfairness, there will be inequality in the world, a hundred years to come, and the big cliff between rich and poor. Now, of course, we have China, and therefore, I have to show China. And China numbers are really stunning. When you look at China, it is overtaking everybody, everybody. And what does this mean? First of all, in terms of numbers, China will add additional, in 20 years, a capacity equal to current capacity of United States plus Japan. So only the addition to China in 20 years, they will build one United States and they will build one Japan in terms of electricity capacity. And this is not only a nice graph or different colors, but this will affect all of us. If China goes for one technology, I don't want to name any technology, but technology X. Given the sheer size of the investments and the technology going there, the efforts, the cost of technology will go down significantly, so-called learning by doing issue. And this technology can be accessible by many other countries in the world. It will change all the balances. But Beijing decides, for its own economy, will affect all of us. Let me give you one, again, an example. Beginning of this year, I was in a meeting where a Chinese premier gave the opening speech, which is very rare, and he talked about energy and he was talking about the achievements of China. 10 points, there's always either seven or 10 points. He had 10 points this time speech. He said one, two, three, and one of them was under environment and it was an excellent one. He said, last two years, we closed down about 100 inefficient and unsafe coal mines in order to protect the lives of our workers, which is an excellent, very, very decent decision because some of you may know the coal mine accidents is a major issue in China because of the primitive way of how they are built. Very good decision. Okay, no worry about it. However, let me go one step further. As a result of this very small primitive coal mines closure, China hit the import about 2.7% of what is coal, which is so small for China that I'm sure many Chinese even didn't notice that. But this 2.7% for China coal was so big for the international coal markets that the coal prices in six months of time jumped from $90 to $120. And it has impact for the Korean iron steel companies to, I don't know, in Europe and elsewhere. Why I'm saying this is that, just all of us to understand, given the sheer size of the country, the China, the decisions which have been made there, maybe for Ireland, for other countries in Europe, as important as the decisions which are made in Brussels through the trade linkages, through CO2 linkages, through other technology linkages. And this is how the things will go in the next years to come. So let me finish the first part of my presentation by trying to tell you these developments in the shale oil, shale gas power markets, how can it be summarized in terms of different countries positioning in terms of the economic power? When we look at the electricity prices in the future, we expect that the European electricity prices will be about 50% higher than the US electricity prices and about three times higher than the Chinese electricity prices. I already mentioned through the differentials in terms of the natural gas prices and electricity prices comes on top of that. And this is, ladies and gentlemen, a major issue, especially for the manufacturing industry in terms of its competitiveness vis-a-vis its rivals in Europe. How the European companies can have an impact, have a chance to compete with the other countries where the cost of electricity, because of natural gas, is much cheaper. Why we have higher electricity prices in Europe? Couple of reasons. One, because natural gas as a major input to electricity generation is much more expensive. Second, we have renewable subsidies in Europe. Third, we have carbon prices in Europe. I'm not saying that these are wrong, but this is the reason why we have higher electricity prices. And this will definitely be a major factor for many manufacturing industry for their decisions. Just two weeks ago, the largest petrochemical company in the world, therefore in Europe, in Germany, decided to go to the United States because natural gas is a major input for their work. So, and we shouldn't be surprised if there is further reallocation of the companies moving from the low-cost basis in the next years and Europe will need to be very careful here. And one of the very few instruments that we can try to address this problem is efficiency, using energy more efficiently, which I will come just now. As Mr. Minister mentioned, every year in the outlook, we focus on a fuel. Last year it was cold. The year before we worked on renewables in debt. We always look at all the fuels, but one fuel in debt. The year before oil, et cetera. And this year, as a fuel, we chose energy efficiency as a fuel and this itself shows how determined we are to push the agenda. And now, when I look at the countries in the world, there is not much interest years and years on the energy efficiency. Even though they said so, there are not major initiatives. And for me, as somebody who follows the energy policy making of the governments for some years, energy efficiency is a epic failure of international energy policy making. There are some exceptions. And for example, I am sure we can easily consider Ireland, Denmark, Austria, this exception, Japan to those exceptions. But in general, there is a major, major problem here. What we have done, we look at every country, every sector, what is the potential for energy efficiency savings in an economic way? So, economically potential. So, what we have found out is that even though if the current energy efficiency policies I described in the beginning, energy efficiency directive in Europe, Chinese targets, Japanese, US efficiency standards, even if they were introduced, still, worldwide, we use only one third of the economically available efficiency potential. And two thirds is untapped, completely. And this is definitely from an economic point of view. Leave aside the environment and moral being good citizen, bad citizen, just from economic point of view, this is completely nonsense. Last week, I was in a similar presentation with the CEO of a major intention company in Norway and I told him during the discussion, what would you do if you had an oil field which produces oil and brings your company, brings money, cash all the time? And after your stuff gets one third of the oil and makes the money, then they close the field and they put a cement on that and they close the field. What would you do? He said, I would fire the reservoir engineer. And this is completely true. The two thirds of the money is under the ground, still there. But this is exactly the same story. Two thirds is still unused. But of course, in this case, we do not know whom we have to fire. So this is definitely, we should point out somebody, but many governments are set, most of the governments are not using it in the right way. The only hope in this picture I see, I may be too optimistic perhaps or to naive here, but the only thing is that when you look at the sectors, it is the industry sector which uses the most of its potential. Why it gives hope? Because with all respect to colleagues here from the industry, industry has one objective function, one main function, one aim, which is to make money. The others are following this. And if industry with the main objective of making money uses the most of its potential, it means there is money in the economy, in the energy efficiency, there is a business case in energy efficiency and the others can learn from that. So what we have done is that we said, what happens if the governments in the world would push the button for different sectors, energy efficiency measures? How would it change the global energy system? What is good, what is bad, what kind of good news and bad news are there? So what we did is that in addition to our central case, we build a scenario which we call efficient world scenario which means countries would push the economically viable efficiency policies. What is economically viable? Just to tell you I don't want to go too much detail here unless you ask me later on, all the policies, efficiency policies are going to go through if the cost of making those investments will be paid back within the next maximum five years of time. So payback period of five years of time. If this payback, we said these are the economically viable policies. It can be in certain cases two years, three years, but we said around five years. What happens? What happens is that first, worldwide we have the same comfort, same lifestyle, but we use less energy. We save a lot of coal, a lot of oil, a lot of gas and a lot of everything. So global energy demand growth slows down. And this is definitely a very good news for energy security. And this again, we have the same lifestyle. We don't go through, I don't know, the uncomfortable lives and sacrifice are going to primitive life, exactly the same lifestyle. This is the first good message, first advantage, first benefit of energy efficiency, policies, energy savings and good for energy security. Second, what we have found out is that from an economic point of view, both for the countries and the consumers, this is a good news. Their economies, countries' economies are growing even stronger, the GDP, as a result of lower oil and gas import bills. And the consumers' expenses will be much less. The money going from their pocket will be much less. So it's also good news from the economic point of view. Third one is under climate change front. Climate change is slowly but surely sliding down in the international energy policy agenda. And when you look at the current trends, global temperature is set to increase up to six degrees Celsius. And the increase of six degrees Celsius will have devastating effects for all of us. Even the school children know it by now. But the world leaders, and this is my last slide, the world leaders agreed in principle to limit the temperature increase at two degrees Celsius. But we wanted to know whether we have still time or not since there is no action happening. When we speak today, the world leaders were supposed to be in Doha, in Qatar, to discuss another and climate change agreement. Of course, this is not happening, but there is a meeting there. So we said, how much time we have, if any? In order to understand how much time we have, we made the following exercise. We said, let's assume the following. Next 20 years, in the entire world, there will not be any new power plant built. Next 20 years. No new cars will come in the streets. No new factories are built. Next entire year, of course, this is a very, very hypothetical thing, but just to show from the existing power plants, existing cars and factories, how much emissions will come from the existing ones only, and how does it compare with the budget giving us, giving us to stay under the two-degree trajectory, just to see where are we today from the existing infrastructure. What we see is that from the existing power plants, cars and factories, the emissions coming from them, will already eat up about 80% of the emissions which are allowed us to stay under two degrees, even though we don't build anything new. And of course, every day new cars are coming, new power plants are built, and this 80% becomes 81%, 82% is going like that. Just to show the room of maneuver we have is very, very limited. And the bad news is, ladies and gentlemen, if we don't have a major change in the energy investment decisions, around year 2017, 2017, we believe this room of maneuver will be zero and our energy infrastructure will be completely locked in and we will have to say goodbye to a two-degree trajectory, which means goodbye to the lifestyle that we used to know. And I can tell you that many scientists even say that two degrees, it's not taken for granted that two degrees is guaranteed that it is a similar life that we have today, it may be even risky. So this is the situation. And we thought, given the fading appetite for an international legally binding agreement, given the situation of the renewables or other low-carbon technologies such as nuclear power, such as carbon capture and storage, all most of the time they're all going down, what can we do? We could do the following, we said, what about pushing the energy efficiency button? If the energy efficiency button is pushed, then we can, in our energy efficient world scenario, we can postpone this date by five years globally. So energy efficiency can leave the door open for additional five years before it is closed. And this is the third advantage of energy efficiency. The first one was good for the energy security. The second one was good for the economy. And the third one is the good for addressing the climate change. And to me, it is the most realistic instrument we have in our hands to address the climate change given the current political, economic framework we are in. So let me finish my presentation. The today energy system is becoming more and more complex. The decisions by the energy executives, executives, especially on the government side, will be more and more difficult. So Bonchance, Mr. Minister, so this is not it. Why? Because there are so many determinants need to be taken into account. Something which is good for the environment may not be good for the energy. Something which is good for the energy may have negative implications for the economy. So there's a consistency of these three objectives is very, very important. Second, I tried to tell you that the global oil gas production is changing profound manner and also the use of energy. And this will have implications on the relative global economic power of key countries in the world. And I am sure this will have also implications on the global geopolitical balances. Third, we believe Iraq is set to play a crucial role in the next years to come given it is significant resources. So I cannot get rid of this now. So let me just say the other two points just verbally. The fourth point is on the climate change. Perfect, thank you. The fourth point is on the climate change. With the climate change, as I said, the apartheid is fading away. And what we see is that there is an inaction. Inaction is not a neutral issue. Inaction is a negative issue. It is the following. The longer we wait to fix the problem, the more expensive the problem solution will be. And the more expensive it will be, the more difficult it will be to have an agreement. And the more difficult we have a longer text and agreement, the more expensive it will be. There's a vicious circle and we not only make it more expensive by waiting, but also solution to be close to impossible. Finally, I believe energy efficiency with these three benefits I highlighted in parallel to Mr. Minister's opening remarks. The positive implications in terms of energy security, in terms of economy, in terms of climate change, makes me hopeful that we will see a change on the energy efficiency side. And I would like to finish by saying that four years ago in the world energy outlook, we have predicted already an unconversion energy revolution which already took place. And now, not a prediction, but I want to leave you with a hope that there will be another energy, unconversion energy revolution, but this time on energy efficiency. Thank you very much for your attention.