 What's up navigation traders welcome to this week's video update today is Friday, October 25th Here's where we review all of our alerts all of our positions for the week And before we do that, let's jump into the community and talk about who got caught being hot This week goes to our friend a K Congrats a K. You got caught being hot. He's been jumping in Answering a lot of other traders questions sharing trade ideas. So all good stuff plus I think he's posted one of the better Gifts in the community so far. It looks like a dollar ride in a roller coaster SPY. I love it So congrats a K. Keep up the good work. We love we love all the engagement going on in the community Everybody helping each other. That is what it's all about So let's jump into the alerts starting with Monday the 21st and And the first trade was an opening trade in DIA So we put on a new iron duck in DIA with 11 days to expiration And so let's take a look at the platform to see where we're at. Here is our DIA duck Because he prices moved up higher since we put this on so it's way up here and So just holding this until next week November November 1st. So we still got seven days to expiration. So we'll be looking at this potentially next Friday or sooner so One thing I wanted to mention and I actually just did another video on this that I'm going to be adding to the iron duck course And that is you know at what point, you know if price runs up higher at what point? Do we just take this off early and book that beak profit? So I wanted to put some parameters around that and so kind of what I've what I've come up with and you can come up with your own Parameters, but this is what we'll use for the alerts as it relates to iron ducks And that is what I what I like to do if you if you move your price slice from the breakeven point if you move it up right here to the edge of the beak and And then look at the probabilities from that standpoint What I want to see is is that there's less than a 10% chance that price is going to go below that beak area So in other words, we can get more profit than the beak if there's less than a 10% chance Then we're more more likely most likely just going to close it out and book that Beak profit and you can see we're at over 25% chance of still being able to get back to that max profit zone So on DIA. Well, we're gonna give this some more time for sure But I just wanted to kind of put that out there and and you'll see that in the iron duck course Well, we'll be talking about More specifics about that so look for that that that video is being edited and will be put into the course here Here in the next week or so The other pieces that we have on in DIA. We've got a couple of short call vertical spreads One is way in the money. So we'll be looking to roll that next week or potentially. Yeah, we'll probably roll it We're kind of using these for our short delta exposure and then the other one you can see is is within range still here So just continuing to hold that for some more short bias Next trade was an opening trade in SPY So we added an iron condor in SPY out in the December cycle Which at that time had 60 days to expiration and then at that point we were still holding our other iron condor So the very next alert we went ahead and closed that one booked over 50% of max profit on that piece And so then we're still holding this one. You can kind of look at this as almost a roll I mean this one has five contracts. This one has four, but we were basically just repositioning this out in the next cycle and So on the platforms, they don't support rolling four-legged spreads because that's basically an eight-legged transaction So essentially, we just closed that one out and then reopened this one and you can see prices Still well within range here just kind of playing the waiting game waiting for some more time to pass in SPY Next trade closing trade in SPX. So we had an iron duck in SPX as I mentioned price continued higher There was less than 10% chance of price coming back into our duck head So we went ahead and booked a duck duck beak profit on that one. So we closed that out now We do have another SPX iron duck on so let's take a look at that and So this is this is kind of what I'm talking about here. So if price is way up here So at what point do we take this off? So I've got my price slice set right to the basically right at the long call so 2940 is where this is set and You know, we've got about a over 11% chance that it might come back So if this thing continues higher, we're just gonna go ahead and close that out and book a hundred thirty five bucks and move on and that allows us to redeploy that capital and And put on another high probability trade Next trade opening trade in BA. So we did a an earnings iron duck We are in the heat of earning season and so we put this on with just three days to expiration BA announced earnings at this point. It was the next day, but today when I'm recording this is Friday So this is the last trading day. So let's go. We still have this trade on If you take a look you can see prices right here So the plan on this is I'm gonna go ahead and just let this expire a couple reasons one It costs us commission I'm trading on toss so it costs us commission to get out and then and if we just let it expire with tosses new Commission structure there are no assignment or exercise fees. So if we just let it expire right here One will get exercise one will get Assigned and they just cancel each other out and we'll just keep that big profit in this case 55 bucks So that is the plan on BA now by the time you're watching this you will have already received an alert Letting you know that but I'm recording this with we got about an hour and 13 minutes before the bell For the closing bell on Friday. So that's the plan on BA So we'll end up booking a profit of 55 bucks beak profit on that one most likely unless something Dramatic happens and price comes way down and we hit a duck head, but doesn't look likely Next trade we did an opening trade in RUT. We put on one of our weekly double calendars And we did this with the front week with eight days and the back week with 16 Now we used a shorter duration for the back week So in the course in the weekly income course We talk about putting these on with six to eight days in the front week and then back week having closer to between 21 and 22 days Between 20 and 22 days, but in this case I didn't I just didn't like the risk reward and that has to do with how low implied volatility is So we went ahead and shortened up our duration on that back week to give us a little bit better Probability the other thing I mentioned is we would exit if the loss exceeds for 50 a contract Which is higher than that 25% like we talked about in the course But because of this risk reward we were able to give it a little bit more room So I'll show you what I mean on on this one So here it is now price has moved up at a center since we put this on With prices moving higher and when we put this on we had a max profit of closer to 900 now with implied volatility shrinking I mean just completely contracting today You can see our break evens they started out right here where the price slices are but they've moved all the way in here and Our max profit has has decreased as well. So You know, we've got about a thousand a little about 1,100 bucks as far as our buying power To put this on so, you know if we get down about 400 450 bucks Which would be somewhere out here if it continues to the upside or down here if it if it reverses and Of course if it reverses implied volatility is gonna expand and these break evens are gonna expand again So we'll see what happens, but we want to risk only about 400 to 450 bucks on this trade Next trade closing trade So we had a short strangle in oil for slash CL booked over 50% of max profit on that one great trade in CL Earlier today. We actually put another one on and so I'll get to that here in just a second Next trade we did a another earnings iron duck in this one in Tesla we did this just with two days to expiration and And this one just blew up to the upside. So let me let's take a look at chart of Tesla And that's the beauty of having this no upside risk because this thing jumped about 20% Right after they announced earnings. Well No risk to the upside. So we just went ahead and booked that big profit and we were out now The one thing I wanted to mention is I was actually looking at putting on a post earnings Shortput vertical just like we teach in the course if a stock opens well above its expected move Then a lot of times it'll continue higher now I didn't put one on because this opened up so much above the expected move You know, I typically like to be in that, you know One standard deviation up to two But this opened up so much higher that I just went ahead and passed on even doing that However, if anyone did take that you got rewarded today because it just continued to push higher I mean Tesla's on fire just just in these last two days, you know before the earnings announcement is trading at 253 Now it's at 327 just a crazy move higher. So Hopefully guys some of you guys caught some of that Next trade was a it was the closing trade in Tesla. So we went ahead and booked that beak profit that I mentioned And so we are out of Tesla And then the next trade Amazon whoo, this created some anxiety in the community people were People are getting a little nervous. So I want to talk about that. So we did another earnings duck in Amazon and with this one just with one day to expiration and So let's take a look at our Amazon trade Well, first of all, let's look at the chart and this is the daily So it right after earnings, you know, it opened down here and it's rallied all day ever since then But that doesn't tell the real story. Let's take a look at a intraday chart. Let's look at a five-minute chart. So This is this is overnight. So right after they right after the market closed They announced earnings and this thing dropped like a rock. It was down over two times the expected move And so if you can imagine You know people were in the community were freaking out because price was way down here. I mean, we were gonna take pretty significant loss if if price stayed there and It's so interesting to see people's emotions You know, it's a couple people saying I'm never trading the strategy again and you know Blah blah blah. Anyway, a bunch of stuff. It's it's kind of it's kind of funny But but the bottom line is this I Know I harp on this all the time But it all comes down to position size if your position size is small enough that even taking a max loss on this I mean, we're talking 1,600 bucks. It's not like that's a tiny bit of money But if you're putting this on and you're not willing to take, you know a loss of you know, we're you know Our max profit 615 so theoretically we would want to exit if it got down 615 bucks if you're not okay with taking that then you shouldn't be taking the trade at all You know, everybody thinks about the upside now price is not gonna move down that much, you know, Amazon's a great company blah blah blah But the reality is if you're not willing to take the max loss on this trade You shouldn't be trading it meaning it's probably too big of a trade for your account Now we only did one contract and so you're saying well, I can't really get any smaller You know and that's true, but if that's the case, don't don't even take the trade I mean it you've got to prepare for the worst situation Now what happened going back to the charts? So it was down way down here Then around the conference call or a little after it rallied back up a little bit still look like we're gonna potentially take a decent loss Overnight it started to grind higher and then into the open and then it just took off to the upside So I know a lot of people well several people in the community Just closed it out as soon as the market opened and they got out for basically a scratch trade I know a lot of others held it a little bit longer and ended up getting out at 30 50 60 70% of max profit, which is awesome We ended up we ended up just holding it. I'm still holding it right now again We're about an hour a little over an hour before the close and most likely now I'm gonna get beak profit. So obviously those who took their profits early would benefit more But I mean this thing I mean what a crazy move it moved from all the way way down here all the way up into our beak You know it was it opened and price was right dead center in our in our duck head And so I'm just kind of holding it and it started just grinding higher grinding higher grinding higher and And then popped up into the beak area So, you know good for good for you guys who managed early, but really I mean the mechanics over time Say that you're you're better off just holding this closer to expiration now There's always gonna be one-off situations where you end up taking a loss when you would have had a profit And there's a situation like this where I'm gonna end up taking less of a profit Then if I would have taken it off early But I'm gonna stick to the mechanics because I know the mechanics are going to benefit me greater Over time and I really think that as as traders you need to have those mechanics You know if you're just playing it on gut feel oh this one I'm gonna get out early, but next time I'm gonna I'm gonna be mechanical or you know this time I'm gonna you know take it off for a scratch. Well you missed out on a lot of profit Or in this case a little bit of profit by doing that So I you know I think you got to stay mechanical with these things. I know it's your money I know it gets emotional. I know you're scared overnight And so you're just happy to get out at break even and I I get that but the same time You've got to stick with the mechanics because the mechanics are what are gonna make you the most profitable Over time and taking that emotion out of the trade. So Congrats on everybody for for those who did make a profit on this trade Like I said, I'm gonna hold this all the way up until close to the close Maybe we can get a little push lower back into that duckhead probably not but we'll see There is a chance about 28% chance that it's gonna get lower than the beak here So we'll see what happens You will have already received the alert because I'm recording this before the market closes But that's that's just kind of what I'm looking at here Next trade opening trade in Baba so Alibaba announces next week and What we did here is we just put on a pre earnings long straddle now This is where we're buying a straddle So if you're not familiar with this concept the only time we really do this is leading up to earnings And the reason is is because typically implied volatility expands and if we can just get a decent price move up until earnings We can a book a nice profit We're never gonna hold this through earnings because obviously we get the IV crush after the announcement so we want to be out By 1031 next week on this one, but let's go to Baba and take a look at where that's at It's up about a percent today But still you know in this range here So we need a significant move higher or a significant move lower the good thing about this and the implied volatility leading up to earnings Is it typically? Mitigate some of that theta decay so when this type of position we do not like theta decaying And so you can see if I put my my marker right there. You've seen you've got not minus 99 in theta so we want this to happen fairly quickly and And the reason I like to put this on let's go back to a daily chart in this situation is Look what implied volatility has been doing. I mean, it's just been contracting contracting contracting Before the earnings announcement, so we're hoping that next week before the announcement happens We get a nice pop it implied volatility and that price either moves, you know a decent chunk up or down So that's the plan if not, we're just gonna close it out right before earnings and and move on Next trade rolling adjusting trade in SMH So we had a short strangle in or we have a short strangle in SMH got down to 21 days to expiration So we went ahead and just rolled this out to December rolled our puts up from 116 to 120 And then we just kept our call strikes the same So there's a little very little value left in the puts and with 21 days We just we just rolled the whole whole spread out to the next cycle. So let's take a look at SMH and And this thing's been stronger the last few days. I thought we were gonna get a little bit of a rollover But nope this market is unbelievably strong just popped back up. So we got close to our break even so this is where price is Right now just kind of hanging out in the upper end of that range And so we'll just continue to manage this as needed I'd like to add to this but implied volatility being as low as it is I'm just I'm not gonna add to this we'll continue to manage this and adjust and enroll But unless we get a spike in implied volatility, we're not gonna add to it at this point and then lastly we did an opening trade in CL so we jumped back in the oil pool and Sold a strangle there with 52 days to expiration Planned volatility has been contracting, but it's still IV percent still over that 50 level got in was about 53 So let's take a look at that. It's gonna be pretty close to where we put it on you can see dead centered So just gonna wait for some time to pass before we do anything in that trade Let's go through some of our other positions starting actually before I do that. I want to mention Going back to these earnings iron ducks and earnings trades a lot of big earnings next week including Apple Alibaba beyond meat Facebook Google Shopify all big liquid stocks that we can be placing these trades on and so be on the lookout for some more earnings related alerts and and And in the community people will be posting trade ideas for for earnings as well So make sure you check that out Ford slash 6b. This is the British pound. So we've got this adjusted strangle on here. You can see we since we've rolled this We're up 900 bucks. We're still down a little bit on the trade a couple hundred bucks So if we could get a little bit more down movement a little bit more theta decay will be in good shape here We've got you know, we've still got 42 days to expiration on this piece. So not looking to roll out in time, but Just looking for some more time to pass Yes, we've got this long Long put vertical and you can see with the strong market prices moved out of range So we'll look to potentially roll this one next week extend duration. We're keeping this on for that short Delta exposure In gold, we've got an iron condor now This one could could be taking off taking off here. We're a little over about 50% of max profit I haven't taken it off yet because Just trying to collect a little bit more theta The other thing is if you look at the options the January options have not come out yet So I do want to add to this one The implied volatility continues to stay high in gold But you can see it goes from December to February with 95 So there's nowhere to really reposition this one yet. So we're just kind of holding on letting for some more time to pass nothing wrong with Booking a little bit more profits potentially So that's the plan in gold in Natty gas we've got these two different pieces of our short strangle. They've got 31 days to expiration So really just holding these waiting for some more time to pass could use a little bit more up movement to get back into center But in good shape there ZB We've got this adjusted short strangle in ZB trying to get back to profits in bonds and Could use a little bit of up movement in bonds to benefit that piece now. We are at 28 days So, you know by next Friday, we will roll this Roll this out to the next cycle. So look for that late next week and if we look at the Let me go to TLT when I look at where the implied volatility is so we're still really high IV percentile of 73 You know, so we may look to add to this bond position So if price can whoops, I'm not sure what happened there If price continues lower, you know around this area here, we might look to add another centered Strangle on there assuming implied volatility continues to stay high. So that's the plan going into next week and in wheat we've got two pieces here one of which is a A Previous part of an iron condor, which is a short call vertical You can see prices come back into range for us, which is good if we get a little bit more down movement We'll just go ahead and close that one out and then we've got another centered iron condor here Or you can see we've got some profit, but not enough to take off yet. So just playing the waiting game on that piece Apple which announces earnings next week has got we've got this long put vertical on We've been just holding this for that short delta exposure will continue to do so I mean Apple's just been on a tremendous run again. And so hopefully we get a little bit of a relief pullback After the earnings announcement, we'll see we'll just continue to manage as is We're just again we're holding it for that short delta exposure and we're at about two and a half to one on that ratio for so for all You new members we like to keep a ratio of short delta in our portfolio to help protect us from those vicious Downside moves. So we so and we do that in relation to our position So, you know, a lot of our positions are premium selling positions. So we're collecting that theta So we use a ratio of short delta or short bias in our portfolio Beta weighted to SPY and we like to keep that in a range of about five to one So for every one dollar of theta, we like to have anywhere from one to five of Short delta and you can learn more about that. There's a couple of blog posts How to trade options like a professional and managing your portfolio using delta Just search for those on our blog if you want to explore more information on that Mentioned Amazon Amazon needs to come down for me. I needed that kid on Amazon B a I mentioned that one Baba I mentioned de so we've got this Long-put vertical, excuse me short call vertical in de see prices right here. Basically where it was when we rolled it So just waiting for some more downside to benefit that I Mentioned di a IWM kind of a similar thing We've got it in this a long-put vertical that we've been holding for short delta exposure or that we put on for short delta It's it's moved out of our range with this strong up move So we'll see if we can get a little bit of a cyclicality a little bit of a reversal into next week to help that one IYR this one's kind of in a similar position as gold where we've got a good profit But just holding on to this a little bit longer Get a little bit more. I was hoping that we'd get a little bit of a pop and implied volatility starting to here Now if we reposition this in the next cycle, I don't I don't necessarily need IV percentile It'd be up to 50, but I'm hoping to just get a little bit more, you know, at least above 20 to to help Receive a little bit more premium in those options. So that's the plan in IYR to potentially Lock in the profits in this one and extend it by re re-entering or re Yeah re-entering it in the next cycle QQQ we've got two sets of short call verticals here You can see price is just outside of our range. So just looking for a little bit of downside to benefit that I Mention RUT. I mentioned SMH SPX SPY XLK kind of a similar situation here. This one's in November We've got 21 days to expiration so we'll be looking to address this one potentially next week and Roll that out to get back into a positive theta position and then XRT is a short strangle. We put this on pretty tight This hasn't been rolled or anything. So this is exactly how we put it on price has moved up near the near the upside break Even and we've still got a little bit of premium in those puts in that untested side You can see the difference between the pink line and the green line So we still got a little little juice in those so I haven't haven't made an adjustment yet Now we are at 21 days to expiration. So we could have potentially rolled this out to you to December today I'm just gonna give it over the weekend if we see if we can get a little bit of a bounce bounce lower Before we do anything if you know if we I mean if we get a big move lower and we're at a profit We may just close it even though we're at not it You know the percentage of max profit that we're looking for or we might potentially roll that one out So we'll see we'll see where everything is going into next week All right, that's all the trades that is all the those are all the positions everybody have a great weekend Come back for earning season the heat of earning season next week. Look forward to it. See you in the community talk to you then