 This time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Okay, looking good, Billy Ray feeling good Lewis. We're very lucky today folks. Whenever I have a question that I can't get answered, I call someone that's going to be our guest today and his name is Bill Meridian of Cycles Research out of Vienna, Austria. Bill, how are you doing? Well, I'm good Larry. How are you? I'm very good. I have three questions here from our listeners to start off. Can I start with those? Because this is a new system that we have here at TF&A. It's called Discord. I know it's a strange name for a company, but it's actually a pretty good system. But it's not like the old Den that we used to have where it was easy to put in charts. So whether we have charts or not to show, I don't know whether we'll be able to do that. But the questions that I have are pretty important. Bill, in my 62 years of being in these markets, my first trade was 1959. And I have never seen it this squirrely. I've been through the Cuban missile crisis, the crash of 87, all the dot-com bubbles and stuff, a couple of assassinations. But my God, I've never seen anything crazy in the world that's going on. I mean, there's so many things that are going bad. Is this astrologically what's supposed to be happening? Yes. Listen, Bill, don't expand on it if you don't want to. Why is it so bad, Bill? I'll try to give you a brief explanation. Last time I was on, I explained that, I think it was December 2020. Wow. Two years already? Are in the year, I'm trying to remember now, we had an eclipse at zero cancer, eclipses at zero effect the whole world. Six months later, we had a Jupiter-Saturn conjunction that supposedly rules the political economic situation for the next 20 years. I think it may only be 10. But they were directly linked because the eclipse was at zero cancer and the sun at the moment of the Jupiter-Saturn conjunction was zero Capricorn. This means these are the world points. That means the energy affects everybody. And if you remember on Bloomberg, they were coming on saying, we're all going to have to participate. We're all going to go through a change. And well, COVID affected everyone, slowed down the economies affecting everyone. But those are not friendly charts. And neither was the inauguration chart for the current administration. They're all very difficult. So that's the short answer. Okay, that's a good short answer. And the second question that someone's asked that's there from Tupelo, Mississippi, the home of Elvis Presley. And his question is, is there anything in the stars or cycles that you're looking at that would cause a crash-type environment sometime in October or November of this year? Well, it's a good question. First of all, I did a study. It's called the panic cycle. Most panics have occurred in years in October and November of years ending in seven or eight. So yes, October and November have brought crashes. I just have a funny feeling it's not right now. The market may go lower. But if you're looking for banks, Lehman brothers going out of business and things like that, I don't think it's right now. Okay, that's fair enough. That answers that question. And the third question is, how is the price? What is your feeling on the environment in Saudi Arabia? I know this is geopolitical, but it's an important question, I think, as a dude asked it. What is the geopolitical ramifications of Saudi Arabia not going along with Mr. Biden, President Biden cutting increasing production? Is that all part of a scenario that's working out in the Middle East? And I know that's one of your specialties because you lived there for so many years. Yeah. And I just spoke to them last week. Well, they're not happy with the president. And I think the feeling throughout the Middle East is, you know, their major concern when I last spoke three and a well be three and a half years ago, when I was this last physically there and I sat with, you know, all these guys were, when I got there, I was 40, all these guys were 25. Now they're running the country. I sat with the guy who's the minister of economics at his home. And what are your major concerns? Well, Iran and fracking. And so I think they want American help and defense against Iran. And if they're not getting it, they're not happy. And so it's sort of a double, you know, we could produce all the energy we need here. We could sink the price of oil, but we're holding it up. So they are arming themselves as fast as they can. And they would appreciate support from the U.S. government against Iran and other encroachments. Well, I can't believe it's been this long since you've had, you know, and I got three other questions here right off the bat. Is there, is there potential, you know, some of these are, you know, really far out, but you know, this is what I'm reading. Is there a potential for a Armageddon type war here that President Biden mentioned this week, a nuclear war in the future? Well, there's always a possibility of anything. But is it going to, I have done, I have to review my work in that area because I'm not really up to speed. But all I can say is the horoscopes that I mentioned, I meant, you know, I, you don't know what to say in 2019 when I looked at it, I said, well, it's increase in violence. I left it at that. I'm in at all levels. I mean, look at the streets. Oh my God. The streets between nations, civil wars, things like that. Yeah. A nuclear, I don't think anybody really wants that. I wouldn't think so. But my goodness, you see it in the news so much now. It's scary. What's happened in Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Los Angeles, I mean, your thing is there to scare you. That's it. Got that right. Are you safe where you are there in New York? Are you all right? I mean, you're out of that area. I mean, no, I'm in right at the moment. I'm in my home in Monroe, New Jersey, which is outside of Princeton. Oh, okay. Well, you're in a real nice area. That's really cool. Okay. One other question that we have here on the price of oil. Do you think we've reached the price of oils peak at 125 or do you think we could possibly go higher? Well, I've got that in the presentation here. But I think the odds of it going higher are low because you're moving into the weak part of the year and very seasonal. Okay. Since we can't post the charts, how about if you go ahead and talk about the charts? You can't see them because I've got them on the screen. They say that he can see them. Well, let's just go ahead. Maybe Al will tell me that I'm not able to see them. Well, he told me to start screen sharing, so I did. Oh, well, then let's fire away. Let's go. I can get those late. I can no figure out how we're ready to go, Bill. Go ahead, start out with number one. And when we come to the break, I'll, well, the break's coming up in just a few seconds here, but let's bring up the first chart and then I'll figure out how to, I will, I will be able to see it very, very soon. So I think all I have to do is to, I think I got it. So let's go ahead. Well, when now we got a commercial now. Yeah, that's what we're going to do. We'll write back folks with Bill Meridian Cycles Research. Low cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. Vista Gold just completed the Mount Todd Feasibility Study, which resulted in a 7 million ounce gold reserve in a 16 year mine life. All of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits. This distinguishes Mount Todd as an attractive, dearest party, ready development stage goal project. Vista Gold trades on the New York Stock Exchange and the symbol VGZ. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master. Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019, finishing it number two for the year. An amazing accomplishment. Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his Mastering Probability Newsletter. Steve's award winning newsletter, Mastering Probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon. Sign up for Steve's Market Newsletter Mastering Probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars absolutely free at TFNN. All our newsletters come with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have absolutely nothing to worry about. 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Bill, you want to take off on your first chart? We'll move to the second one. You see the summary? Yes, sir. Well, a stock market round, I'll talk about this is doing Q4 where we are, but the average bear market runs 30 to 30 months and retraces 38 to 50% of the prior bull market. We're not there yet. So the bulls are on thin ice here. Rates are headed higher, which means lower bonds. Oil I think is moving lower in this Q4. And the real estate cycle which I presented on your show many times, I said 2023 would be the top. It's already creaking. You're beginning to see the fault lines. So always have to keep our eye on the money supply. You see here, this is the global money supply. It is contracting. So if you're looking for an expansive money supply or looking for a reason to own some inflation hedge, really the facts do not support that. You are running up to down escalator. And of course, credit is tightening. Percent of the world's banks hiking rates. I mean, you can see that is higher any times as 1985. I have a bunch of slides like this. These are the only two I put in. This is incredible. We can see it. Mortgage rates hit 7% here in Tucson this week. Of course. Now, October from 1885 to the present in terms of the S&P in all months, it's up 56% of the time. October is the single most volatile month. It has seen the biggest one day declines. It has seen more lows and usually closes on the upside. And according to the descending pattern in years ending in two, October has bottomed a lot of bear markets. I don't know if we'll do it this year, but anyway, in years ending in two, which we're in, it's been up 31% of the time. In election two years past election, it's up 62% of the time. Both zero and elect zero, that should be two in election years, the combination of items two and three. Up 67% of the time. The month has been the highest and as the highest percentage return of 4.1%. It's been the most volatile month. So that's what we're facing right here. So usually, you know, very choppy in the opening and closing on the upside. Now, the one four and 10 year cycle, the one year cycle is the annual cycle in any year that the market is weak in the autumn. It is a strong in Q4. There's a spring rally and so on a summer top. That is the red line. The election year cycle is the green line. That is a four year cycle. It's actually 3.8 something, which has been attributed to the Federal Reserve. And the story goes that the Federal Reserve wants to support the incumbent president. So they juice up the money supply in the year before the election. So the year prior to the election, the market returns have been best the year after they've been the worst and the other two are in between. That is a good theory. But as my old pal, he and Natalie used to point out, there was a four year cycle before the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. And there's a four year cycle in countries where they have six year election cycle or no elections whatsoever. In other words, it's a four year cycle. And the decennial pattern is from Edgar Lawrence Smith of the Maritris Bank. And that is years ending in five have had the best returns years ending in zero have had the worst returns and all manners and shades in between. And if you look here, you'll notice there it is. It's it's bottoming right now. And this is the sum of all those cycles up here, the solid blue line. So you see, according to this, we should have started bottoming two weeks ago. And what I'm seeing here is a very weak, I mean, that the market can't really muster any support in my this, by the way, is a cycle I use in 2016 when I was ranked number one by time of digest. And then it didn't work as well. So I have other cycle that I used 17, 18, 19, 20. And I noticed last year in 21, this one fit the scenario. So I decided to follow this one. And you'll note that it projected a very weak Q2 and Q3. And there you see the week September right here. And it's been it's been very it's been the best of the cycle combinations. It doesn't always work every year. But it's working right now. Now that's the composite of the three cycles in Q4. So you'll see we are currently down right here right at the point of just above October 10. So the market is trying to bottom the technical problem that I see is if you look at the new lows, new highs, new lows have been dwarfing new highs, it started straight now. And then it went back to the downside. And even on updates, you're getting more stocks making new lows than new highs. So that is not a positive signal. And so I'm sitting on a lot of cash waiting for some signal. Now Q4, this is the, this is all years, two years best election that are also years ending in two. And you'll note they've only been six of them since 1885. You'll note, you see how weak September is? That's that does not include this past year. And then you'll note that October 4 is October and November, December are strong. But you'll know. So in other words, I confirmed the 1410 year cycle with this, I said Q2 and Q3 would be the weakest. Q4 would be the strongest. So this is where we are now. This is an extreme, you have not seen this before. This is only the Dow 30. I got into the habit of looking at seasonality. In other words, which stocks traditionally do the best? For example, we're worst in a month. The worst month to hold Apple is September. It's down 65% of the time. If Apple is down in August, which it was, it rises to 72%. Now, Larry, you're a trader and if I told you, Larry, I've got to trade you the 72% probability of success. You would, I think, find that interesting. Anybody that'll flip a coin, I'll do it. You bet 75% is way out there. That's an outlier for me. And that's a good one. And October is the best month to hold it. So if you look right here, you see Apple and you'll see seasonal rank three. In other words, of all these stocks, the best performer, the third best performer has been Apple. The best performer has been GSO Goldman Sachs. The second best performer, Johnson & Johnson. The RSV is the relative strength. So this is seasonality. This is what the market is currently doing. We look for confirmation. And relatively speaking, the number one stock is CVX Chevron Texaco down here. So if we, it normally does not do well. It's 28th ranked out of 30 stocks for October, but it's ranked first. So its rank is the sum of these two divided by two. So I'll put the top as Johnson & Johnson. It's number two in seasonal rank and number seven relative strength. Now, I have been publishing this in Forbes and in the past 30 to 36 months, and this is not a managed portfolio. This is a test, but I put it out there. The numbers are that the top five stocks, if they are the longs, they outperform the index by about 30%, the index being the Dow Jones industrials. And the shorts are running around like 0.6 a point. In other words, at down 20%, 30%. So it's working exactly as a long, short equity strategy would work. And it's got two components, seasonality and relative strength. Of course, you can look at this and go through the top five and say, I'm going to rule this one out or that one out for some other reason, because it's in a weak sector or whatever. So this is, I ran this for the month of November, which hasn't even started yet. So I may have misspoken and said October, but for, and then I try to look for, notice J&J is a healthcare stock. Let's go down foreign as united health. So you've got two healthcare stocks highly rated, then you have Merck over here. So of approximately the top 10, three are in the healthcare industry. And of course, down at the bottom here, you've got Verizon, Boeing, Intel, Dow, Nike, IBM. So these would be the shorts. So this is a tool I've developed just over the, I was doing it by hand and we finally computerized it because it showed Merck. So now this is the S&P monthly and in 1987, the stock market crashed. I'm sitting in my apartment in Greenwich Village in New York and I called up Arthur Merrill who wrote behavior of prices on Wall Street and Fulton waves. And I said, Arthur, could this 1987 crash have been a mini bear market? They said, well, Bill, there are two considerations, price and time. And if you asked me to pick between the two, I would say that price is more important than time. So I said, this is retraced at percent with the fire move up. So it could qualify as a mini bear market. Okay, so Bill, we had we got to go sell things. Yeah, we have to sell some things. We'll be back in just a few minutes. This is really good. Stay with us, Bill. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Okay, we're back, folks, speaking with Bill Meridian, Cycles Research. Bill, do you want to continue, please? This is really interesting to me and I know the folks like it too, so please continue. Here's the S&P 100 monthly, so these are obviously Fibonacci retracements, but on any chart, I've kept this simple. I'll put on as much as you like. I put a regular trend line on, the GAN, one by one, one by two lines. Where they, Joe DiNappoli calls this confluence, where you see a high concentration of lines, it is thick ice for the bulls. In other words, if you walk out on the frozen lake, you're not going to go through into the drank. What is that area here? Well, first of all, you've got this move from back here, 87 crash. Look, that 87 crash panicked us all. Look at the size of it now. I know. It was 87. And then we start again here in 2009. And then we over here in, that's around 2019, 2020. So I picked 30, 30 because 3300. You'll notice it's 61.8% of the most recent rally and 38.2% of this rally. And if you go below that in an emergency all-out, 2,500 would be 50% retracement of the entire rally from the 1987 law. So 3,300 has been my target for a while, but obviously markets don't move straight down. They, you have bear market rallies, which are devilishly difficult to catch and lose a lot of money for you. So I find it hard to believe that we're going to have a strong market next year. I just think we're having a Q4 rally and you're this rally right now. I mean, the S&P is right now, off 11 cents as I'm talking, that's not much of a rally. But this is what I'm keeping my eyes on. I think this is one of the key charts to watch. And composite, didn't we just have that back here? Anyway, I think I put this in here twice. Composite of the three cycles in Q4. Now, let's move over to bonds. Now, first of all, I'm sorry, things were a bit out of place because I'm traveling and having a computer problem. So bonds have hit a retracement level of 78.6 of this rally from 05 up to here. And from 1982 to the high up in 2020, that is a 38.2% retracement. It's right there. So as my old friend Tony Plummer in England says. Yeah, it's Elliott Mann of England. Yes, you betcha. Yeah, if it exceeds 38.2%, that usually means some fundamental has changed. In other words, the investor's view of the fundamentals has changed. The fundamentals may have also actually changed. But if it violates 38.2%, it tells you that the previous trend may not be valid or it's weakening. So right here, I'm just saying that I'm very negative. I'm very bearish on bonds. But right here, you may get a bit of a bounce. And this is in the wrong place. If I can get back to bonds. Here we are. Sorry about this, folks. It's okay. You're doing great, buddy. Well, here we are seasonally. Here we are in October. This is 40 years. The red is the probability of a rise on that day or time period. So here, January, we read the right scale. That's almost 70% chance of a rise in the month of January. But look what it drops down to in March. That's about a 30% chance. So from here to here, if you're a bond bull, you're swimming upstream, you're climbing up the down escalator, you're eating soup with a fork, and then you buy the load here and you hold up until here. I said to the late Richard Moghi, Richard, is it my imagination or when you're looking at a new market with cycles, you should start with the annual cycle of the year. He said, yes, Bill, that's what I have found. And so this is the annual cycle of the year. And July and August were the best months. October is up slightly. And then November and then it weakens. You'll notice you sort of hit the peak up here. You're sort of swimming upstream here. But this is working against this. This is the U.S. national debt. It's 1972. And interest on that has to be paid. So I have had a boss, I've had very good people around me older in my life. And he said, the longer term you go, the more the fundamentals play a part. He said, so the shorter term, it's supply-demanding balances. You measure that with technical and market analysis. So he said, now everybody tell me what's going to happen in two to three years and I'll give you the ideal investment strategy. So whether you're doing fundamentals or technicals, you're still in the same boat. You want to know what's going to happen tomorrow. And that is the composite cycle, which I think you have seen before. That is my program which extracts the cycles using spectral analysis, but then tests, which I don't think any other software program. It runs a buy and sell signal test. Well, if that's the amount of debt, and that's the seasonality, and that's the dynamic cycle. In other words, that's all the cycles on a monthly basis that are currently active and making money. So we just don't look at the one year cycle, which is the annual cycle. We look at, well, this is the vacuum cleaner, or as they say in Europe, the Hoover that hovers up all the other cycles. So you put the two of them together and you're off to a pretty good start. Let me just see what the next slide. Okay, I want to go back now. This, I'm sorry for this being out. Oh, hey, you're doing great. I remember the last time you were on or very close to the last time, you were very negative bonds and thought that gold was going to have a significant correction over the next year or so, and you certainly been right on both of those. So keep on going. You're moving great. Hey, we got bills to pay here in just a few minutes, but keep going until we hear the music and then we'll... Okay, let me get back here. This is a book I wrote, Planetary Economic Forecasting, which I wrote in the early 90s. Okay, Bill, here's some, we've got to pay the bills now. We'll be back with in just about two minutes, okay? Bill Meridian folks, cycles research. We'll be right back. The Opening Call Newsletter at TFNN.com. The Opening Call Newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices. Get the Opening Call Newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com. Educating investors. As well as entry prices, target prices, and stops to set for each trade. Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every Friday with updates throughout the week. You can get the technology insider at TFNN.com for only $37.50. Sign up for Dave's newsletter, the technology insider, and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer. Try it risk-free today with our 30-day money-back guarantee. TFNN. Educating investors. But for how long? Whether you think the Biotech bull has room to run or has run its course, trade L-A-B-U or L-A-B-D. Directions daily S&P Biotech three times bull and bear ETFs. Visit DirectionInvestments.com slash Biotech today. An investor should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Direction shares carefully before investing. The Prospectus and Summary Prospectus contain this and other information about Direction shares. To obtain a Prospectus or Summary Prospectus, please contact Direction shares at 866-476-7523. The Prospectus or Summary Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Okay, we're back folks. We're speaking with Bill Meridian of Cycles Research. You tell us about this book, Bill. We'd like to hear about it. Yeah, well, Planetary Economic Forecast was written back in the 90s, and I took the Business Activity Index from Ameritrust Bank. They took every stitch of economic data they could find from, I think it was 1780 up till the present. They were taken over, I think in 88. The first thing you do is you fire all the creative people who do this. And so I've been attending to numbers myself ever since. And so I tested planetary cycles out. Six showed great promise. The major one is Jupiter going through the signs, which is a 12-year cycle. That was way ahead of whatever was in second place. And I don't have the chart here, but it very clearly showed the 2007-08 top, which was the real estate bubble. Then it showed a flat market for eight years, and I was in London explaining this, and some white-haired gent who was a walking history book on economics and history said, well, why would the economy remain flat for eight years and thinking on my feet? I said, they'll elect someone like the Carter administration that's not friendly to business, which is what happened in 2016. It took off. And so I predicted whoever won, there was going to be a rally. So back when we initially did this, I ran the projections to 2020 and not any further, unfortunately, but I figured out a way to get them out. Now that is 2022. And we are right now, we are over here. So this is all the news you've been hearing about weakness in the economy. And this is business activity. So it's anything that a merit trust could find, and they stitched it together, and it's a long explanation that was stock averages. And since 19, it's the end of the World War II, it's the FRB index of industrial production fed into a regression analysis. And so that's what the numbers are. And this is 2023. So it indicates actually things ain't that bad in the economy. I don't know if I really trust the cycles, but they haven't failed yet. But this is 2024. Now the odd thing is I was speaking to Felix Zuloff, who was the most successful fund manager in Europe. And by going long technology, he used to come to Abu Dhabi, used to come to my place. And so I always like to compare notes. And he, when I last spoke to him, he said he thinks the real trouble is coming in 2024. Well, that's what this chart says. Because that's a steep decline for this index. And that is 2025. So it indicates from Q1 of 2024 to sort of Q3 to 2025, a sharp drop in industrial product, in business activities, the proper term. So a lot of people have asked me to update that. So that's the updating. So now we go to gold. And as you can see here, the gold dynamic cycle bottoms now. Let me first say that September is the single best month to hold gold. It's up 61% of the time. And this cycle actually pointed up at that time. And I went long gold and got, I mean, there was a 70% chance of gold going higher, and it did not. So that tells me there's something fundamentally very wrong with gold. So now I'll tell you a story of some guys in New York that I know who had a currency trading program. And they, in the very early days of social media, and that well, they went to news feeds, and they hired a PhD in linguistics. And they said, take words like, you know, buy the pound or sell, sell the yen and search for those and that effort failed. So finally, before they gave up, they used, I think they used a test called multiple discriminant analysis. So they said, go to highs and lows and just figure out what the words were, whether they make logical sense or not. That worked. And those guys had a very successful currency trading operation that was super secret. When the euro was introduced, it fell apart. Now I think gold is having trouble for two reasons. One is cryptocurrencies, that a lot of the money that would normally go into gold is going into crypto. And number two is the strength in the US dollar, which I'll get to. So this, and there is a gold seasonality. See, as you can see, it declined in September, which is very rare. And right now we're in this period. So we may have, I think, a strong finish here in November, December to the year, year, but I'm not too bullish. I think, and I'll just get into Bitcoin cryptocurrency for a minute before he passed away. Matthew Mellon and I met from the Mellon banking family. We met three times and he was the backer of Bitcoin. And he said, I'm, you know, tired of these guys and get besides of getting out of this, the government has contacted me and they want to create a government coin and they want me to help them. Well, as you know, the current administration has already issued plans to do so. And globally, they want to do this. And I said, aha, that's the fundamental. That's why that's why Bitcoin and cryptos aren't going anywhere. When the government comes in, it's like a big fat Uncle Sam diving into a swimming pool is going to be a huge wave. And all the little cryptocurrencies will sink, like they used to have so many car companies, Studebaker, Doos and Barrier. And I said, if the government comes in, what they'll do is they'll offer you some kind of an incentive, like we'll give you a quarter of a percent off your tax bill if you pay it with our dub coin. Well, my client came in Friday night from the Bahamas, we had dinner in New York, and I said, what's going on in the Bahamas? And he said, well, do you remember what you said about the words I just said? I told him, he's in the Bahamas, you can pay with the US dollar, the Bahamian dollar, or a local government currency, and you'll get a discount if you use the local government currency. Now, if the US government did that, Bitcoin, I think an Ethereum would survive, but all the little ones will get sucked. And they also probably they'll hit them with a lot of regulations that a lot of the smaller ones can't afford. So that is why Bitcoin is flat as a pancake. And in Tony Plummer analysis, it couldn't even retrace 38.2% of the last loss. So I'm not a buyer right here. Okay. Wow. Here's oil, you can see the seasonality, we're in October, look at this. So it's up, let's read the right schedule, 42% of the time. Next month, it's 38%. The blue is the average percentage change, which is losses of about two and three percent. And the green is the product of the two. So you're sailing into a headwind here, if it's if you're looking at oil. Now, the daily histogram for oil this month, and I'm now impounding the table here. And the second half of the month, look at that. That's how in the month of October, that's how weak oil is, and particularly the 19th and the 22nd. So I went bearish because it was a projected turning point on oil on Friday. And I doubt I'm going to come off of that till the end of the month. Wow. You hit it right on the high, it closed on the high on Friday. Well, and now why is gold having so much trouble? Well, this, is this a contrary opinion signal? This is from last week. Well, I have, you'll see why. When you do this, you have to, when you get into it, you know, you buy the technical analysis book, you go to the course or whatever, and you think you've got the grandmaster key to forecasting the markets. And then you start working and realizing by the time you're done, half of them point up and half of them point down and you're sort of back where you started. So this looks very bullish. And this is the US dollar seasonality. You'll notice we're in October, which is kind of flat November, but look at December. And then look at January. This is a real flip flop here from the very bearish December to a bullish January. Well, we've got to, we've got to pay a few bills and someone's asked the question already, which currency would you move to? We'll be right back with Bill Meridian folks, cycles research, two minutes. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve. Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accreted transaction. Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC. Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. 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There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfnn.com. Don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv. That's tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv. Okay folks, we're back speaking with Bill Meridian, Cycles Research. Bill, the question from one of our listeners is if the dollar is going to top up in here, which currency would you go to? Well, let me finish the presentation. I think it'll answer the question. We'll be quiet. The major graph I'm looking at is this from the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, which down here where I have the pointer, I ran those cycles that come from my software on a monthly basis and it showed a rally. I said, well, if it rallies, it's going to break this trend line. So that's what I predicted. Once it got up here and got overbought and as we all know, after a major breakout, you get a consolidation. And you see the consolidation, then the cycles turned up. I said it's going to break out over here. Well, that counts up to about 115-120. We're not there yet. So I think we've got to get up there. So let me see. There's the US dollar cycle. That's the current cycle. And it doesn't top until sometime later next year. Now, I was on the phone with Felix at Switzerland and he said, well, Bill, do you know where the dollars are strong? And as we both know, it's the reserve currency of the world. So if you want to trade with someone else, you've got to convert your currency, whatever it is, into dollars in order to trade. That's what holds the dollar up. It creates an artificial demand for the dollar. But he said, the reason it's so strong is the economy's slowing and people want to borrow money with interest rates. And he said, so it's loan demand and the loans are denominated in dollars. And he said, fundamentally, I don't see this stopping until sometime later next year, which is what my cycle says. So that's what's behind this. It's loan demand because people want to stay afloat and the economy is slowing. And so the answer to the question is, I would stay with the dollar. I would not try to trade off into another currency because this cycle has worked all year long, people have been arguing with me since 2019 about this. And how the feeling. See, I was looking at this. I was looking at this as I'm thinking, well, if they ask you what the dollar is, is bullish or bearish, say bullish, just think of this graph. And so that's the dollar index. Well, that's it. Hey, buddy, we're going to have you on again in a couple of weeks. Okay, Bill. Thank you so much, my friend. Look at how trading cards are being purchased. Oh my God. Thanks, buddy. We'll see you later. Bye bye.