 The round of eight about to get underway this weekend for the NASCAR Cup Series out in Texas for the Auto Trader Echo Park Automotive 500. That is a mouthful, but it's gonna be a fun one. We have this race on Sunday and then two more in the round of eight before the finale in Phoenix. So the season dwindling down, but I think a pretty good one this week out in Texas. Things do line up pretty well for DFS. I think that we got logical drivers in each tier. So let's dive on in and get you set for Sunday's race. Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network in NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Here to preview Sundays, Auto Trader Echo Park Automotive 500 in Texas. Lock is set for two PM Eastern on Sunday and the lineup has already been set. So as you're listening for today, you can fill out your lineup as we go along and get those lines submitted for Sunday's race. Before we dive in to talk about the track breakdown for this week, quick reminder that we do a lot of stuff here on the NumberFire Daily Fantasy Podcast feed our week six, NFL DFS preview podcast is posted. Myself, Brandon Gadoula breaking down to the main slate, talking through value running backs, game stacks, studs were prioritizing and much more. Tom Beckial is back with the Daily Deak, his NHL DFS podcast that's every weekday. We have UFC coming up later on today. We have PGA, a lot of good stuff here, NBA coming up just around the corner too. So plenty of incentive to make sure you are subscribed to the NumberFire Daily Fantasy Podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. Hey soccer fans, this season, fan duo and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one of a kind soccer contest. Introducing Captain Morgan's soccer pick-up, a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play. The contest is simple. All you have to do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season. You'll earn points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win $3,000 in prizes every single week. Head over to FanDuel, enter the Captain Morgan soccer pick-up today. Must be 21 plus two, participate for more details as at fanduel.com or download the FanDuel Fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply. Don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in the Captain. Let's take a look at the track breakdown for this week and we're gonna have a very front-centric approach both for our studs and our value plays. The appeal for the studs and the reason to drift towards the front is the number of laps in this race. There are 334 laps scheduled for Sunday, which means there are 33.4 FanDuel points available for laps led. That is a really big number, especially for a mile and a half track. We want those laps led in our lineups. When you have that many laps, we'll often prioritize drivers at the front and that's even easier this week because the eight drivers remaining in the playoffs are going to start at the top eight spots in the starting order. The top four drivers in my models projected average right position are starting the top four spots for this race. So we want lap leaders desperately and those lap leaders very likely to come from the front of the pack. We want to pepper that group. The top eight, but specifically for me the top four great out really well for this week. In my mind, this would lead to getting at least two playoff drivers in each lineup. There was a chance we could have gotten a deviation from that last year because Kevin Harvick was the favorite in my model for that race in Texas. He was starting from the pole led laps early, but there was rain in the track and Harvick ran into that rain, hit the wall, finished poorly, which opened the door for some chaos during that race. And a guy no longer in the playoffs did win that race. Kyle Busch was outside the top eight, did not advance to that round. He won that race. So there was a lot of chaos there. We could have seen the situation where there was just one playoff driver in the perfect lineup. We still got two though, both Martin Truex Jr. and Alex Bowman made the perfect lineup without a win because they led laps. They both led at least 40 laps. So even when the race got wacky last year there were still two playoff drivers in the perfect lineup because of the number of laps available because those are the guys most likely to lead laps. I want to build that way this week because of the salaries of the guys on top it could lead to pretty top heavy rosters. You know, Kyle Larson's 14-5. That's no joke by any means. Denny Hamlin 13-5, Kyle Busch 13,000. If you want to get two of those guys in there it does mean that we might just skip over the mid-range. Mid-range is pretty fun this week. I do like William Byron, Kevin Harvick at least interesting, but they're both around $10,000. I might not be able to get back up there for my third driver if I use Larson and Busch or Larson and Hamlin which I do want to do. But I think that's a worthwhile trade-off. If I have to choose between a second playoff driver getting to those high upside guys and getting more exposure to the mid-range I will prefer the playoff guys. I might be able to get both specifically because of Ryan Blaney at $11,000 a guy I do like quite a bit this week and I would like to get there but if I'm forced to choose I will skew toward the playoff drivers as opposed to the mid-range guys. Of the value plays we'll also be looking in the teens pretty often in terms of where the starting order is. Of the top 19 drivers in my models projected average driving position only two of them are starting in the back half of the field. Those guys are Harvick and Eric Almirola in 24th and 22nd. And both of those guys have struggled in this rules packages here. Harvick less so, but Almirola has not been great. If you look back at Larson's perfect lineup the two value plays there started 14th and 15th and I think we'll see something pretty similar this week. We need to maximize finishing position for our value plays and this week that means passing up sites that place differential guys to target guys in the teens. There are some place differential guys we can turn to and we'll talk about those in the tier by tier breakdown but for the most part it'll be drivers starting inside the teens. When trying to judge who has good finishing upside and who can lead laps we wanna lean heavily on the races at the mile and a half tracks. We've had seven of those so far this year which is plenty of data to lean on. Four of those were on tracks with either minimal tire wear or not too much. Those four races were in Charlotte, the two in Las Vegas and the one in Kansas. Kansas has more fall off than the other two but it's not as extreme as Atlanta homestead. So I'd bucket them as being Charlotte and Vegas being the top races to look at. Kansas in the middle and then you can look at Atlanta homestead but they're definitely different tracks based on the tire fall off there. But if drivers haven't done well on the mile and a half tracks it's hard to expect them to do well here. So to recap strategies for this week I want to target lap leaders which means I'm likely targeting two playoff drivers in each lineup that might mean you'll have to pass over the good mid-range plays but to me that's a worthwhile trade off. As far as the value guys go I wanna make sure they have good finishing upside which likely means I'll be drifting closer to the fronts which is okay and it is uncomfortable but I think that it is okay for this week as far as determining who is fast lean on the mile and a half tracks but put a heavier emphasis on Charlotte and Vegas bumping up Kansas a bit relative to Atlanta and homestead. So that is the outlook for this week. What does that mean in terms of our favorite drivers? Well, let's talk about it and go with the tier by tier breakdown based on the salaries over at fan duel.com starting off with the elite tier that is Kyle Larson at $14,500 through Chase Elliott at $12,500 and Larson is the key to this race for me. My simulations have him winning 25.9% of the time that is a massive number. Nobody else above 14% and the reason that Larson's there is because he has led 931 laps on the mile and a half tracks this year that is almost half the laps they've run. Nobody else within 700 laps of him. He's won twice already and that doesn't include the all-star race at this very same track which he also won. Larson will be the number one driver for me this week by a wide margin, I would bet him. He's plus 360 at Fangirl Sportsbook. I think that's a very fair number. Does depend on where you're betting because at Caesars William Hill he's plus 275 so shop around but you can get him a plus 360. I bet Larson and shovel him into a lot of DFS lineups for this week. Number two for me is Kyle Bush. Bush has been just a hair better than Denny Hamlin on the mile and a half tracks. He has six top fives and seven races. Hamlin did win Vegas though during the playoffs that matters quite a bit. So it could go either way. I will lean on the larger sample here which says Bush but both those guys are above Chase Elliott. Chase was awesome in Charlotte, ran well in Vegas but I will rank him below these two guys here. So I'm gonna rank this tier Larson one, Bush two, Hamlin three, Chase Elliott's number four. The second tier is Martin Truex Jr. at 11.5 through William Byron at $9,800. And the guy in this tier who could jump up and lead laps is Ryan Blaney. And Blaney's key here because his salary is $11,000. That means he has a discount from Larson, Bush and Hamlin. He is the fourth guy I talked about at the beginning who I think has a good shot to lead laps during this race. If you go with Larson and Blaney, you can get back up to Byron at 9.8. And I think that's a pretty fun construction for this week. And the reason I like Blaney is he has four top fives in the mile and a half this year. He won Atlanta beating out Larson late in that race. He was fifth in Las Vegas during the playoffs. He was fifth in the first Vegas race too. And Blaney has been great in Texas throughout his entire career. Back when he was with Wood Brothers Racing, which is kind of a Penske car, but like, you know, not the same team around him. He led 148 laps back in 2017. He led 150 laps during the summer race last year. I had bet him during that race. It was very mad when he did not win. Probably should have won that race. So I like him more than Byron here and I like him more than Harvick because I think that he's got good odds to win this race. So, but I think that you can get bull. Like if you go Larson Blaney, you can get to Harvick or Byron as well for that third slot. Speaking of those two guys between Byron and Harvick, I'm gonna prefer Byron. Harvick is starting deeper, which is good for his DFS outlook, but I just feel better at Byron's speed on these tracks. He pushed Larson hard in the all-star race. My numbers like him a lot. I would be betting him if he weren't eliminated from the playoffs. We don't see a lot of non-playoff guys when I know Kyle Busch did last year at this track, but for the most part it does tend to skew towards the guys who are still in contention. So I would bet him if it weren't for that. Harvick does have two top fives on the mile and a halfs, but he has not had a single lap yet on those tracks. So his upside is pretty muted. So I would go Byron over Harvick because I think that Byron's odds of getting a top five here, maybe leading some laps are better. So I'm gonna rank this tier Blaney one, Byron two, Harvick three, Martin Truex, Jr. four and Joey Logano five. I just don't think Logano has the speed to hang on this track type. So I won't have any Joey Logano for this week. The mid-range is Brad Keselowski at $9,500 through Tyler Redick at $8,200. And all these guys are starting between 7th and 17th with Keselowski being the lone playoff driver. And I'm super skeptical of Keselowski given that he's on his way out of Penske. So he was fine in Vegas. I'd need some convincing. The sound was good, but I would need some convincing here. If I rank this tier based on speed and starting spots, Austin Dillon and Kurt Busch stand out most to me. Dillon's starting 15th at $8,500. Busch is 17th at $8,700. Busch is one of the non-playoff guys who does have a win on the mile and a half tracks this year. Dillon won Texas last year, this very same track. Dillon has three top tens in the mile and a half this year. His worst finish is 13, so I like him a lot. Also, it is a key strategy race because of the lack of tire fall off. That's why Dillon won last year because RCR invests heavily in analytics and knows what to do with tires on pit stops. So I trust him a lot and Tyler Redick too on tracks like this. Busch was 8th in Las Vegas, so he's running well and that was after he was eliminated from the playoffs. So I have a lot of confidence, both Austin Dillon and Kurt Busch for this week. Alex Bowman is $9,200, starting 14th. I like him more than Busch straight up, but it is a $500 discount and that does go a long way this week. So if you got the salary, I would go Bowman over Busch, but with the salary discrepancy, I will favor Busch here. I'm going to rank this tier Dillon 1, Kurt Busch 2, Bowman 3, Redick 4, Brad Keselowski 5, and Christopher Bell, number six. The value tier is Eric Amarola at $8,000, through Daniel Suarez at $6,500. Amarola and Ross Chastain are starting in the 20s, which could make them stand out, but they've been pretty rough on the mile and a half tracks this year. Neither guy is a top 10 finish and they both have an average finish outside the top 20. So I'm pretty likely to be underweight on both of those guys. The guy I want to be overweight on is Bubba Wallace. He's starting 18th at $7,000 and he's run well on these tracks this year. He has had a top 17 average running position in four of the past five races on mile and a half tracks. And it hasn't turned into great results, great finishes yet, but Bubba did run well in Charlotte. That's the best corollary for this track. So I like him at 7,000. That team is, I mean, they've gotten further along, further, you know, they didn't have a shop a year ago. So like, I think as the year goes along, I'm okay bumping him up. That does lead to me liking Wallace here at $7,000. I'm also willing to take Swipes and Matty Benedetto at $7,500. He's starting 13th, so not a big place differential guy, but I think he can get you a good finish. He was fourth in Kansas. He was top 11 in both Atlanta races. He was also 12th in Las Vegas, which was after he was announced he'd be leading Wood Brothers racing. So the lame duck theory, not as much of a concern here, given the salary as it is for Keselowski. De Benedetto finished eighth here in last year's race. Also was good here when he's with Levine family racing. I'm guessing that De Benedetto will be less popular than Amarola and Chastain because it's starting deeper in the pack, but I think he's a great pivot. So I'm gonna rank this tier De Benedetto one. It might be a bit ambitious to put him there, but I'm okay with that. I'm gonna have Bubba Wallace two, Chase Brisco three, due to a low salary, low starting spot and improved finishes recently in the mile and a half tracks. I'll go Chastain four, Amarola five and Chris Busher number six. I'm probably gonna be lower on Amarola and Chastain than others, but given what they've done on these tracks, I'm actually okay with that being the case. As far as the punting tier that is Cole Custer at $6,200 on down, I am very okay with Ricky Senna's junior at $5,700. We've seen Senna set massive pop runs on these tracks this year. He had a top 15 hour drive position in Vegas, Atlanta and Charlotte. And he didn't turn any of those into top 10 finishes, but you don't need a top 10 for him to pay off when he's $5,700 and starting back in 27. Stenhouse Rex a lot. That can be a concern for a 500 mile race. There are a lot of chances to mess up there, but I'll still do it. I like him quite a bit here. So old Recky gonna be in the lineups for this week. I will take some looks at Ryan Newman, starting 31st at $5,500. That can work at times. And he's had good runs on this track type. He's just had better runs when there's been more tire fall off. And seems like he's kind of coasting right now. So not super enthused about Newman. Wouldn't be mad if I didn't get there. I think Stenhouse a much better play in this year. I can live with Stenhouse. I can live with Newman. Might take some spice to Cole Custer, but to me, I think that things fall off from a top 10 perspective after Wallace, unless you consider Stenhouse, which I kind of do, but Stenhouse kind of the one standout among the punting tier for this week. Let's finish up here with our win picks, one above 10,001 below. I can't pick against Kyle Larson. He got the win for us last week as well at the Charlotte Roval. Again, 25.9% to win in my simulation. So I'll go Kyle Larson, really hard not to. As far as a guy below 10,000, I will go William Byron there. Again, I'm not betting him this week because of the fact that he's not in the playoffs. I think that's a big enough red flag where I won't get there. I don't regret that, but I'm okay with it. I think that from a process perspective, that's okay. Byron is at 7.5% to win in my simulations. That shows value relative to his outright odds. So if you are less concerned about the playoffs, go ahead and bet him. Just I'm telling you, me personally, I will not be. So win picks for this week, Kyle Larson, William Byron, we'll see if Hendrick can not mess it up this time like they did in Las Vegas earlier on the playoffs. That is all that we've got here for today on the NASCAR edition of the Heat Check Fantasy podcast. But again, a lot of stuff here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast. Heat Austin Swain breaking down UFC this afternoon. I don't think the slates are up yet, which is why that one's pushed back a bit. So that'll be up later on. Once these slates are posted over on FanDuel, for this weekend's USC car, we of course have NHL via Tom Vecchio, NFL via myself and Brandon Cadulla, and PGA back next week as well via me and Brandon. Hit subscribe and also leave us a rating and review. If you like what you hear if you win some money. If you've got questions for me about NASCAR DFS, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to Evan for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your NASCAR DFS Linus for Sunday's race. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.