 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a fun little tune up for the open championship coming up this weekend It is the Genesis Scottish open a links style course out in Scotland We're gonna break down that a event from a betting perspective by talking to branding Adila getting his read on a pretty unique field Outlining the course and getting you ready to play some bets over at Fandall sports book welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire joined here as mentioned by Brandon can do a check him out on Twitter at Kedula 13. You can find his work over at number fire calm Where he is the senior managing editor Brandon Scottish open coming up this week kind of a fun event now with the PGA tour co-sanctioning it which means we got a pretty good field too. How you doing today? Good. Yeah, and I know you love some some overseas golf so that you don't have to watch any of it And you can just wake up and check the scores. So this is I know you're this is like you are masters I think everyone else gets like amped up for the masters U.s. Open to you know a lesser degree. I don't know So I don't never know where the PGA lands, but I know you love the open I know you love the the European golf so that you don't have to watch golf Which really is more of a me take than a you take not to be watching stuff, but I Just find it fascinating that that you love it so much so I think that last night's home run derby is a good example of why I like this because I Can I don't think miserable when I got get stuff wrong if I get stuff wrong and it happens while I'm sleeping like oh I wake up and Paul Casey is six over sick. I don't have to worry about it. Like it's okay. I wake up I see it I can move on if I like Suffer through it and watch at least Garcia losing the first round Not but I like had him going beyond that anyway But like knowing that my first bet off the board was toast And then the guy had winning it all was in the first round too as you wear your mariners had to mock me like I'm sure you knew Exactly what I was referring to there. It was definitely intentional. Yeah, but like I don't to suffer through being wrong When it happens leap and I find that pretty reassuring the one of my mariners win it No, Julio Rodriguez did beat Peter Lanza on the first round though, and he's awesome. So that's fine You know, it's like it's one of those where it's like I'm bummed that I lost and I'm bummed that I was wrong publicly, but he's So at least there's that yeah, it's one of those Things I was running to I have a lot of hats And so people I like a dolphin's hat people will ask me like oh, what do you think about the dolphin season last year and I'm like Man, I mean I I'm on the sports guy, but I it's mostly that I just like hats. So yeah And like we're not results space people. So it's hard to like name like I don't know what the record was last year Yeah, that's the other thing too. It's like oh, you know, I think You know this or that about this team. I was like higher on them than consensus So like I think they did better or like wise versa and people ask me like the playoff team I forget I forget stuff right away. We know this but like I mean like we're constantly gone to the next Things that's hard to retain information beyond the past week and so that makes it difficult for sure, but You know, I think that this week should be fun I I have said my take that I like being able to wake up and while you're having your morning pee break You check the score. So yeah, things are going. Maybe some three balls already paid out. I don't know I wasn't doing three balls last year at this time So this is the first experience of that and I'm pretty pumped not all that So we'll talk about what to expect for the Genesis Scottish open here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can find us on Apple podcast Spotify wherever you get your podcast You can find us if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify And you know, I forget these podcasts also go up over on the fendal YouTube page and on fendal TV plus The name is on fire Apple TV and Roku as well Take your first swing at betting MLB on fendal and get ten times your first bet amount in bonus bets up to $200 that's right. Just bet 20 bucks. 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So you've got scottie sheffler or a macroe But also a lot of the best guys in the dp world tour playing against these pgh tour pros So I've already talked about this before how the dp world tour compares to other tours But a lot of people listening here probably have not so For people who are just tuning in just trying to acclimate themselves to this kind of thing How well do quality finishes on the dp world tour translate when facing a field with guys like sheffler macroe et cetera Yeah, I'll say that's a it's a page out of my playbook where you know, I know I know what's going on But for people who don't let me like can you uh, but no Yeah, I've talked about it a lot. So I know that uh, I'm not gonna throw a gym under the bus I'm just making a joke there. But uh, I need a refresher man. I've been I've been an office for a week I need help in actually I'm surprised you've listened to me. So I guess it's that's fair. That's it. Yeah I can't fight back because like I'm tired from moving. So like I'm not gonna fight back against these vicious allegations because they're probably true I can't wait for our dfs show then I'll be You're just gonna railroad. I'll be on offense. Yeah pedal to the metal Backpedal whole show. It's gonna be great Yeah, so You know, it's always something that we gotta figure out whenever corn fairy tour guys get called up or you know There's there's majors or something like this Co-sanction event and You can look at things a few ways the most obvious one is the official world golf rankings Strength of field. It's just much higher than for the pga tour than it is For the dp world tour average strength of field rating for the pga tour this year. It's a 267 Which is an arbitrary number basically and doesn't really mean anything So this context will help again 267 for the dp world tour in 2023 103 And then for the corn fairy tour, which if anyone doesn't know is like the basically the minor league tour to the pga tour It's like the one step down From the pga tour. So again, those are 267 103 and 72 So that puts the dp world tour closer to the corn fairy tour than it is to the pga tour Data golf, which we also cite Plenty has a field strength page that indicates a few things about the field Most helpful for this conversation is just the average Sort of world rating for a golfer basically where zero is like the average professional male golfer pga events this season Have averaged a minus point two strokes gained or sorry strokes like stroke average For the field this season That's a minus 1.1 for the dp world tour and a minus 1.4 For the corn fairy tour. So maybe like a third of a shot difference between the dp world tour And the corn fairy tour but about a stroke different per round. So Comparing things is always a bit tricky, you know data golf stuff Adjust every virtually everything automatically for us, which is nice With my motto I adjust stuff as well. So that helps me compare You know the same week of golf across different tours, but I know that that's not something everyone's going to do So I point people to data golf to help out try to get Up to speed on some of these golfers that you're a little bit less familiar with but yes, it's to sort of sum it up dp world tour I know some people think it's like Similar quality of the pga tour, but it's it's really not No matter how you how you cut it and it's it is better than a corn fairy tour Then on average but not substantially so So it's basically the secondary tour. I guess It'd be the third best tour If you try to figure out what the live tour is valued at so It's a step down for the pga tour. So maybe someone finishing like top 10, you know constantly on the dp world tour Just ballpark and maybe like top 25s or so on pga tour and that depends on the individual event itself So we'll get into it from there. But yeah, that's what that's what we're looking at and that's definitely reflected in the betting markets too because a lot of like the top end dp world tour guys are Gonna be 50 to one or longer to win this event So the betting markets reflect that but I wouldn't use finishes in the dp world tour to say Oh, a dream wrong 55 to one I should rush to bet that and stuff like that all like he has been a three ball god at times So full respect a dream wrong despite that Now this is the second time as mentioned, we've had the pga tour co-sanction in this event It's at the renaissance club for the genesis scottish open What did we learn about this course last year brand and what should we know about this course heading into this week's event? Yes with a lot of links courses depends a lot on whether And just sort of the elements in general How how firm the fairways are how firm the greens are whether we get rain whether we get wind so the recent winning scores um Last year is andre schroff lay one at seven under par When it was co-sanction, but the three years prior when it was on the dp world tour Which I guess for anyone else if we didn't clarify is what the european tour was for for a long time same tour Um 18 under 11 under and 22 under so it can be really varied Uh, and that's kind of what you get with a links course And with most links courses, there's a d emphasis on hitting fairways, uh slight emphasis on distance Statistically, I think if you look at the hole by hole it would make sense to target guys who are longer off the t So that's factored in for me a bit But really it's like an emphasis on irons wedges and putting Just having a great driver being long off the t's not enough Among 38 courses with shotting data last year according to gig office the fourth toughest place to gain strokes from approach play Tough greens the hit tough greens the stick. Um, so you're going to need to scramble and pot well so kind of an all-around test which In a bit of a creative test and there's really no shot shot like strokes gain creativity, but you're going to get some undulation You know guys maybe just playing things a little bit differently Uh, than they would typically so that that increases the variance a bit Um, but it's not it's not going to be completely random and with the amount of pg tour players we have in the field They're Probably going to rise to the top as they as they did last year against the end or one. Uh, kirt kediama tom kim tommy fleetwood patrick cantley kim tringale jamie donaldson Matt fits patrick branna woo were the guys who were t6 or better. So, you know, that's kind of Probably in in in store this year again So you mentioned that distance can matter at least hitting fairways doesn't matter as much Um, but then you also said that you know, it's going to be fairway through green that matters a lot Now justin roe is a guy who is not long up He's not short either to be clear But like he's not as long as a lot of the guys who are up near the top Do you downgrade someone like that who is not super long? Uh, but who does have like or or does the fact Act that he is so good after date that for you So, I mean tom kim was solo third last year. Uh, if the course plays firm enough, they're gonna get that roll out. Um So it's it's basically I prefer golfers to have distance off the tee So that they can take even more advantage, but it's kind of an equalizer in a lot of senses. So, um, not gonna not gonna like Penalize anyone. Uh, it's basically just yeah a slightly in toward distance if I can get it Uh, and basically, okay, the more important thing is like not emphasizing guys who are just super accurate I think that makes a lot of sense. Okay, so let's take a look at the odds board here over at fangirl sports book Where scotty schaeffler is a favorite. He is seven to one rory mackerel rory is plus a 50 Nobody else shorter than 14 to one brandy. When you look at the top board here You got those two favorites there any value for you when either scotty or rory with where things currently stand? On one of them. Yeah, and it's scotty schaeffler. My model has him around plus 6 10 To win against this field. He's just I mean, he's phenomenal first of all um And that's a big a big part of it one of the best tee to green games that we've seen Really ever in the shot link era. He's doing what he's doing Uh, without putting well and that's kind of crazy because to clarify like what he's doing Uh in 2023 like the calendar year itself Uh has not finished worse than t 12 In the 2023 season. He was t 45 at the cj cut back in october Um, he's got two wins. I mean and he's doing this with Just okay putting So my model likes him a lot. I like schaeffler Uh and over the past 50 rounds first in stroking it off the tee Which again, not necessarily the most important stat, but you love to see that in first and approach play um, the putting sit like the putting stats about 25th percent how for him within 15 feet, which Not great, but not abysmal so you would expect the putting to get a bit better So I like schaeffler. They're not necessarily uh for rory. I have him around 12 to 1 Like the recent form just not enough to back him. He hasn't really played the course Particularly well in his two starts um schaeffler if memory serves missed the cut last year T 12 the year before that so a little bit better there at least and and with schaeffler's form right now, it's hard to Hard to kind of knock him at 7 to 1 Yeah, uh schaeffler 7 to 1 you have plus 6 10 and to me if I hear that kind of gap where it's like One and a half percentage points of value. I'd be only to take that. Are you going to take schaeffler 7 to 1? Okay, I think that that's the right way to go that as well any other outrides stand out to you right now at vandal sportsbook. Yeah, a couple um, there's basically I think a decision if you're going to go with schaeffler you always got to make sure that you're uh Practicing smart bankroll management, but both patrick can't lay slight value at 14 to 1 in tearl hatton at 20 to 1 So if I have to if I can pick one i'm going to go hatton I haven't 19 to 1 he's 8th in the field and strokes gain t-degree Over the past 50 rounds with field strength adjustments according to data golf 15th in putting He's played the course a lot. Um three top 25s I like to see that and So I like can't lay an hatton again would lean hatton Especially if i'm going with schaeffler And then a name that I've mentioned a few times uh Down at 45 to 1 Unless he moved did he move It looks like maybe he moved your screen's really small for me windham clark Oh, buddy. He's 34 now. Oh, jeez. Okay. So that's that's not a number I can recommend so uh, gonna gonna pivot on the fly here, but If that lengthens just to know I mean I had him I think like 42 or 40 um So I'll do some looking really quick. See if we can still get them longer than that 34 is wild. Um, but dominant Yeah, isn't wild. It's kind of He would need a third win and six starts, but I just kind of envision him to You know, I like to let the model do the talking and then kind of from there. I'll Make some tweaks. I'll I'll disagree or agree in certain places, but uh with what windham clark did uh with this short game at the us open feels like he could kind of scramble his way to Uh, oh win here And he didn't even gain he lost strokes with his approach play at the us open, which is Honestly kind of disgusting that he did that. Um So And this is the guy who is like a great iron player. So I'm kind of not there at 34. So, uh But honestly, I would be okay still with with just basically a card of A chef or hatton and and maybe can't lay as well Um, you can still get clark at 40, but if you have my 42, that's not enough obviously. So yeah shop around on windham So you can get him out there because uh, maybe there's value remaining still out there, but obviously like even plus 340 would be appropriate for a golfer as beautiful and as wonderful as windham clark I know not outright snuck it posted until pretty recently Uh, and it's primarily just finishing positions right now over at fandal any time for you to Buzz through those to try to find value or uh, still working on the non outrides as of now Uh, there were two that I saw but yeah pretty recent. Um Top 20 here, uh, lucas herbert um It should be plus 320 unless I got Uh, you can steam again. No, it's 320 still here. Okay He's finished at t62 t4 t4 and a missed cut uh at renaissance club in his career But that's some of the best sort of cumulative form at this course. Um The stats model is just okay with with uh, herbert one of the more like core sensitive golfers I don't that's not that's not necessarily even mathematical Which just feels like his best play is at certain types of courses. I think this course can fit him well obviously based on Uh, his finishes here, but I think that's a good number according to my model. Um And then padrack herrington, uh top 30 Uh plus three ten He's got four starts at this course in his career t9 and uh 2020 t18 and 2021 missed cuts in 2019 and 2022 That's a lot of course knowledge and he has been tearing it up on the champions tour He was on the no laying out podcast talking about how he Is still putting on swing speed and has been basically Uh, it's kind of phenomenal t27 at the us open t50 at the pga championship and t10 at the valero texas open So combine all that Uh for just the top 30. I think that's a pretty nice way to get Uh something in you know something on a card Uh and with golf it's always tempting to go for the the outrights and and just look at the the big numbers but One thing i'm always trying to work on is look for the the more Uh sort of lower lower ceiling higher floor plays and uh, I think herrington at plus three ten for a top 30 is Pretty enticing Yeah, plus three ten for top 30 for padrick herrington plus 320 for a top 20 for lucas herbert The other brand is focusing on there. You said the is the renaissance club? Like did I say it wrong before? I think I think it's the renaissance club technically also It's in what looks like north burlick, but it's north barrack So, you know, we're always trying to do pronunciation, right? I don't care as much when it's a not a human like if it's a human I want to say their name, right? If it's a place i'm i'm more Okay with like being wrong, but i'd still like to not intentionally be stupid Look, I i'm doing my best here, but I think I mean would you Like would you call la joya la la jala because you just thought it was convenient like That's the thing with pronunciation. I always try to think like If people I mean I and I have gotten a lot of different pronunciations on my last name like What if people purposefully just said it how they wanted to Like that's you know, so we're I've learned it from you With places I just care more about it with people like I'm not gonna feel bad if I mispronounce a place at least I'll feel bad if I get any wrong Okay, I mean I could be wrong too. That's just what I have thought I've found out So, you know either way it sounds cool. So it makes me look renaissance I don't know. That's right renaissance. Is that how you're saying it though? That's yes, I'm trying to but maybe I'm wrong renaissance. I'm gonna go with that renaissance if I'm wrong It's on your conscience. I'm hope you know that but we're gonna go with that from now on So they'll be at the renaissance question mark club I'm gonna get hammered for being wrong, but it is what it is. I you know, if you're scottish, you're listening Do you want to correct us? I welcome that Let the efforts there probably the brandon's mentions All complaints go to akadua 13 on twitter as always even if it's complaints about me in general All complaints go to akadua 13 because he won't see it. So who cares? So send all complaints that direction as always That is all that we have here for today brandon though I want to thank you for swinging by talking about the scottish open Appreciate it and good luck to you with your bets for this weekend Yes, thank you and uh, good luck for for me hoping that I pronounced the name of the course Properly relative to the intended. I mean intentions there mea culpa if if uh, if I just butchered it And uh teas and peas to me for our dfs podcast So you railroad me as I roll over for you at all times Because I just don't have the willpower to fight back as of right now You can find brandon twitter akadua 13. I am on twitter at jim sonnis Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Uh, give us a five star rating if you like what you hear enough podcasts for spotify Also, check us out on the fandal youtube page or on the fandal tv plus app We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network