 Okay, welcome back to Think Tech. I'm Jay Fidel, your host, and this is Midnight in Brussels featuring Gaui Kondekar, deputy director and director Europe of Global Relations Forum. We provide updates of events across Europe with Gary. She joins me, my Skype audio today from Belgium to address European topics of interest. And today, especially, we're going to talk about terrorism continues in Europe. Hi, Gary. Happy New Year. How are you? Hi, Gary. Happy New Year to you and all your listeners, and everything is fine here. I hope Honolulu is doing perfectly well. I hope so. Well, Honolulu is doing okay, regularly, you know, as usual kind of thing, but Europe has troubles that, you know, I'm happy to report we don't have. So can we talk about the continuing terror in Europe? Most recently, the market attack in Germany. Yes. Well, you know, Christmas markets are a big tradition in Europe, and especially in Germany, they're quite special. It's especially nice. And, you know, every day there are terror threats that transpire, markets would be attacked. Yes. Also because they're religious symbol, yes? I mean, it has to do with Christian tradition. The Christmas markets would be a target. Unfortunately, it happened that there was an attack in the Berlin Christmas market where Anis Amri, who is a Tunisian immigrant, discussed his history. But it was something like what happened in Nice where he drove a truck through a crowd that a lot injured and injured gravely. So unfortunately, this is what happened during Christmas, yeah. Yeah, that's a way to dampen Christmas for sure. But I think what troubles me about it is the repetition of the Nice incident. In this case, the guy commandeered the truck, killed the driver, took the truck over. It's clever, you know, in a way of terrorism. You don't have to have anything, just whatever we use to kill the driver. And all of a sudden now you have a weapon and you drive it into a crowd. I have a feeling that the success of these two attacks is going to be repeated. Yes, I mean, this is what ISIS had basically called for in Europe these kinds of attacks. They said if you have a car, just drive it through the crowd. There are a number of people as possible. So this was let's say a propaganda that ISIS has been using for terrorist attacks in Europe. Security agencies have been working quite hard, especially after the Brussels attacks. So the formation of terrorist cells, well-developed terrorist cells is quite circumscribed. So these lone wolf attacks, as you see, which people are self-radicalized on the Internet or via some mosque where they might meet these groomers. And their means are limited. Therefore, whatever is available like these mega trucks, large trucks which could cause damage and which draw international attention. Because that's the main goal. It's not about killing a handful, but about spreading terror basically. And they succeed in that actually. Unfortunately, they do succeed. Well, you know, it's very interesting, you know, the connection. I mean, all of Europe is connected and Europe includes the European parts, I think, of the Middle East. For example, Turkey and Israel. And there were two pieces that I picked up this morning on CNN. One is that somebody noticed that an enormous number of Jews have left Paris because of terrorism after the Charlie Hebdo incident. Until now, the number of Jews emigrating away from France, apparently because of this, you know, has dramatically increased. Of course, a lot of them go to Israel. And then at the same time, there's a story about, and I don't know the details, but there's a story about a truck incident in Jerusalem where four Israeli soldiers were killed in the same vein, I believe, as a niece and the German market. So what we have is, you know, connect the dots kind of spreading, whether it's lone wolves or more actively inspired by ISIS. It sounds like it's all ISIS directly or indirectly. And it's, you know, these kinds of modus operandi are repeating themselves, not only in Europe, Gary, but everywhere that's halfway European. Well, basically, just to start with the Jewish community, if you see the past terror attacks have targeted indiscriminately, so they've not particularly sought out specific communities. Well, the Christmas market here, I mean, you know, a large majority of a large number of Europeans are or call themselves atheists. So they don't conform to the themselves to the Christian values or traditions or even the religion. So these Christmas markets are not really Christian, let's say, but traditional religious seen as something to do with religion. The Jewish community has not been targeted in these recent attacks in Brussels, also various locations that were sought in the November 2015 Paris attacks, or the nice attacks. That said, Jewish organizations have been targeted in the past in various places globally, I would say, like we've spoken about the Jewish Museum here in Brussels, but also in the Mumbai terror attacks that happened in India in 2008, where a Jewish, I think, education center was targeted. And so organizations belonging to the Jewish community have been targeted. That said, I wouldn't think that, you know, a specific community should be afraid. Europe has been their home for, you know, centuries. And they have no reason to fear more than any other person. So I have the same amount of fear. I would say like any other person here, probably more. But it's not targeted for now. I appreciate that. What about Turkey now? Turkey had a pretty bad one in that nightclub on the Bosporus a week ago. And that was really too bad. I agree, in that case, it was anybody and everybody. I don't think they were intending to target one group or another, just an iconic gathering. And they certainly had a profound effect on Turkey. I'm very concerned that Turkey, you know, is becoming destabilized because of this. Is there a connection? What is the connection? And what is the effect of this terror in Turkey? Turkish nightclub attack was the sources aren't clear because the perpetrator has not yet been caught, as far as I know. More with the war in Syria and Turkish participation or the deal that Turkey is making with Russia for ceasefire. And I think that could be the main motivation because Turkey is largely Muslim. Of course, there are different sects of Islam that do cohabitate peacefully in Turkey. But I think it was more politically motivated. As you know, also the Russian ambassador to Turkey was shot a week before that, I presume. So it's more politically motivated than the attacks that happen here in Europe, I would say. Well, let's turn to the turning. Europe seems to be turning right. For example, read that Angela Merkel is now operating on an initiative to deport migrants. And there was a piece recently, it was on 60 Minutes yesterday, to the effect that there are hate crimes on the rise in Britain. And I'm sure there are other indicia you can tell me about, about how people and political structures and leaders are turning to the right because of the terror, because of the migrants. What do you hear? What do you see in Europe on that? That's interesting. So in Europe now, the discussion amongst the thinkers, the analysts is that whatever shift, whatever is causing the shift to the far right, or to the right, let's say, of the spectrum, is because of the failure of neoliberalism. I'm arguing that Europe has forgotten its social democratic roots, and that neoliberalism is now the main reason that's causing people to be at malice and to revolt against the system, let's say, in inverted commas. So that's the main reason. Now, the shift to the far right across Europe is different for different countries. In the UK, you see a backlash against Europe, and European immigrants. So there's a large community from South Asia, India, Pakistan, and you've also had crimes related to, let's say, Pakistani and Bangladeshi migrants. But the communities that have been targeted in these racist attacks have been largely the Eastern European migrant communities, the Polish, Romanian, Bulgarian. So that's more to do with political motivations and which basically culminated in Brexit, or the impending British exit from the European Union. In Germany, what was interesting is that most people still consider Angela Merkel to be the possible next leader. So it is, even though Germany has faced the largest number of migrant flows in Europe, they've received one of the largest numbers of Syrians and Iraqis and other nationalities as well. And these terror attacks, quite a few have happened in Germany yet. Most people remain pragmatic. They're not falling prey to fear-mongering and targeting Islam, per se. But the trend that we see across Europe is that far-right parties pick up agendas which seem too sensitive to be discussed. For example, Islam. So when the Islam, offering a platform that may have not been political mainstream, politicians that avoid speaking about these issues that are seen as more taboo and take the line of multiculturalism. So these far-right parties have taken advantage of that fact. Even though at the inception, Islam has not been one of the main causes of their formation. So especially in Germany, where you see the Pegida movement, they had nothing to do with Islam. The neo-Nazis as well had nothing to do with Islam. It's more about the economic malice, but also as many analysts now agree, the failure of neoliberalism. We're not in a good time. And I would add that the U.S. is not in a good time either. Let's take a short break, Gary. Let's Gary Kondekar with Global Relations Forum. We'll take one minute. We'll be right back. And we'll discuss some more about how these things are affecting Europe and how Europe is changing. Aloha. I'm Kaui Lucas, host of Hawaii is my mainland every Friday here on Think Tech Hawaii. I also have a blog of the same name at kauilukas.com where you can see all of my past shows. Join me this Friday and every Friday at 3 p.m. Aloha. My name is Mark Shklav and I'm the host of Law Across the Sea. And Law Across the Sea is a program that brings attorneys who have traveled across the sea and live in Hawaii or are staying in Hawaii for a time to talk about their travels, where they're from, where they're going and bring it all together because really we're all connected some way although we travel across the sea. So I hope that you'll tune in and watch our program. Thank you very much. Okay, we're back. We're live with Gary Kondekar and we're talking about the terrorism continues in Europe but there are other things to talk about too here on Midnight in Brussels and she stays at the place to talk to us. So Gary, what is the perception of reaction around Europe to all that we see in the press in the U.S. from, what's his name? I'm blocking, from Donald J. Trump. It's like every day all the media always talking about him. I mean he commands and dominates the media and I wonder if he commands and dominates the media in Europe the same way. Yes, everybody is mainly shocked. In the Twitterati in Brussels, U.S. elections, U.S. issues about Obamacare, abortion and there were, I think yesterday there was a march by women in the anti-abortion rallies basically. In Europe? Yes, in Europe against... About what Trump might do, yeah. Yes, about the election of President Trump's NATO which is the security alliance underlining about Russia even denouncing President Obama said Russia has been behind hacking. So Europe is quite afraid because Russia is quite belligerent especially on the eastern borders as we've seen with the annexation of Crimea. So Russia is quite active militarily and strategically as well. Russia is playing a military role now in Syria which was seen as the U.S. geostrategic sphere of influence and also European. But now Russia has overtaken the Middle East, let's say. And so Europeans are afraid. So Russia is one reason, NATO is another. And the third one, or not surprisingly, is climate change because President Trump has said that he doesn't believe in climate change. It's a Chinese hoax and that he's going to roll back U.S. efforts against climate change which has left many in Europe worried because climate change is quite a huge priority here. Yeah, it strikes me that right now Europe seems to be more liberal, more conscious, more aware, more in tune with global events and issues than the U.S. is. And certainly than Donald Trump is. And I find that very interesting that Europe becomes the moral leader, or at least most of Western Europe anyway, becomes the moral leader on world issues. Don't you feel that? Yes, it was funny when it was announced that Donald Trump won the U.S. elections. There were a few tweets which said that, oh, now Angela Merkel is the leader of the pre-world basically. True, you know. So it's all changed. So before that, as we've spoken in previous shows, she was criticized quite a bit about her immigration policy, open immigration. And suddenly, overnight after the election of Trump, she was seen as a glimmer of hope in Europe, hold together the Western liberal world order, you know. So interesting. What you just said surprised me that Europe seems more in tune with world politics, but you know, the U.S. is the superpower. So it's so funny for me. Well, the U.S. is redefining itself, or let me put it this way, Donald Trump is redefining the U.S. and we're not sure what's going to happen. You know, but one thing seems clear that, you know, he is emerging as a power, even as a powerful leader, even in the presidential elect phase and before, you know, the inauguration, making all these statements. These statements are basically consistent with the kinds of things that he was saying during the campaign and that they are very threatening to a lot of people in the U.S. and apparently a lot of people in Europe, too. So it's not, you know, it's not going to resolve so quickly. As a matter of fact, it could get worse. You know, what one commentator says, it's going to get worse before it gets worse. Unfortunately, as disappointing as that might sound, I mean, that's the analysis. I mean, everybody's gone into 2017, a bit depressed, a bit lost, a bit of hope, I would say, because politics has changed. U.S. politics is completely changing. And nobody knows how the international system is going to function because it was the U.S. underpinning the global order. And who's going to take leadership? Who's going to provide peace around the world? Yes. Well, it's not going to be Vladimir Putin. Vladimir Putin, you know, it's clear that he's made Russia more powerful. He's dominated, as you mentioned, you know, the Middle East now through his activities in and around Syria. U.S. announced this morning that it had a raid in Syria against ISIS. But you know, I think U.S. comes out number two on that. And they're also in the air and they're competing with the Russians for airspace over Syria. But I think the U.S. comes out number two on that. And really, you know, the question is how do people see the emergence of Putin? How do they see Putin as, you know, the one who is essentially attacking, you know, Ukraine and also the Baltic countries, and who is doing hacking on a regular basis for all of the countries that he's trying to get advantage on? Are people concerned about him? Putin in Europe always. There's never been a moment I would say, especially in Eastern Europe, Poland, the Baltic countries, the Nordic countries, where they've not relaxed, you know, they've always been on edge. And that's why the majority of NATO focus lies on Europe's Eastern border. The missile defense systems are all mainly in Eastern Europe. And this is the topic of one of my papers is that you see a more because of Europe. That's not because Russia has ambitions to take over Europe. But it's more to do with China. China is emerging as a regional superpower and a global leader. And it's Russia's closest neighbor. So if you've seen Asia, it's the dominant, it's the alpha male, let's say. China is more and more active in Central Asia, in Africa, of course. And Russia has seen its traditional sphere of influence. And this is my theory that it's more geared towards China than towards Europe. Where can we see your paper, Kauri? In your coffee. OK, please. Well, you know, the thing about China, you know, reminds me of something really remarkable that happened this week where the Chinese announced they were establishing a rail line, a direct rail line, mostly freight rail line, probably passengers as well from Beijing into Europe, into Western Europe. This is a romantic notion. Have you heard about it? What does it mean? China is trying to recreate the Silk Route, which connected Asia and Europe, basically Eastern China to Western Europe. And it's called One Belt, One Road Initiative, which includes sea links and road links. And it's going to be a vast, vast network of infrastructure and connections, transport and infrastructure, telecommunications as well. And this network passes through Central Asia, but also the Caucasus, other Eastern European countries, which, as I mentioned, have been Russia's traditional sphere of influence. See, China has been very active. China has money at the moment, and it's investing. It needs to invest. Europe is seen as a huge market for China. It's its top trading partner. Yeah, with that trade, it'll be able to deliver enormous quantities on a steady, continuous basis of China manufactured goods into the heart of Europe. Exactly. And this is one of the fears that's rising also vis-à-vis Trump, is that the more aggressive he gets against China, and if this erupts into U.S.-China trade war, there's going to be more dumping of Chinese goods in Europe. Well, I wanted to ask you about the economy of Europe in general these days. I mean, there are various factors. Playing, of course, there's a terrorism factor. There's a Russian factor. There's the American election factor and the comments from Donald Trump. And of course, you have the Brexit factor, all these things. And of course, you have the Trump boost in the stock market, at least in the U.S. And my question to you is, how is the economy of Europe doing with all of those factors working on it? Is it having a rally, like the Trump rally in the U.S., or is it going the other way? More continuous, I would say growth, but low growth scenario. There's not much growth coming in. The austerity continues as well. So it's not a dynamic economy. It wasn't since 2008, and it continues to remain a stagnant economy with low growth scenarios across the board. I think the European Central Bank recently last month announced more quantitative easing measures, which means that also austerity continues. Much trade in terms of free trade agreements externally. So of course, the EU-Canada free trade agreement did come about after much hassle because one small region in Belgium opposed it, so the entire agreement was held. The free trade agreement with the U.S. is now suspended. Trump does not want it, and many free trade agreements across Asia have been also in limbo. But the euro has been falling vis-à-vis different currencies. The British pound has fallen, and I think the biggest challenge to the EU economy, the eurozone economy, and the UK is going to be Brexit, is not going to be resolved now. There are analysts who've guessed that Brexit might take 10 years of negotiations. So it's not going to be an overnight process, 10 years of negotiations to get the right deals. London has been a financial hub for Europe. There are many banks that have operated from London, and which now want to completely uproot and move to continental Europe. Because then they have access to the huge European free trade area, right? Which is going to create havoc for the UK economy because London is the biggest cash cow that the UK has. Its economy is largely centered on this city. So there are a lot of economic challenges, like you mentioned, quite a few. Immigration, not for now. I think the repercussions might come by later. Because the impact on, and I think we've discussed this as well, the impact on the social security systems, the social welfare systems, will be compounded in time. So for now, immigration is less and less visible accounts, let's say. Then it would be in a couple of years' time. Why do I feel you've got some more papers in the pipeline around these economic issues and immigration issues? What else are you writing? Tell me what you're writing. I'm very curious because it sounds like you're all over and you're doing some fantastic work, Gary. That's so kind of you. I just finished a paper on human security. The definition of human security and how urbanization in Asia can be identified as human security. Actually, tonight I'm finishing my book. I've been editing a book on the Asia-Europe meeting. It's a forum like the APEC, but it includes Europe and Asia. So tonight is the final deadline for the book. So I'm finishing that and then again my second book on Japan's Security Strategic Partnerships for this month. You don't get any sleep anyway, but anyway, we're not going to hold you up. We're going to let you finish your papers and your books and we'll say farewell. We'll say happy new year to you again, Gary. And we'll check in with you in a few weeks to find out what else is happening, what more is happening. It's really, really interesting to talk to you in just a few seconds.