 Hey everyone, welcome to this week's video update. Today is Friday, January 29th. Hope everybody had a great week of trading. Taking a look at the S&P. Some blood in the streets this week. A couple big red days including today. The S&P is getting ready to close down about 75 points. If we look at the other indices you've got the Dow down 638 today. NASDAQ down 279 and the Russell down 33. The market is getting ready to close here in just a second. What's going on here? Keep in mind from a perspective, if I look at year-to-date percentage, the S&P is still positive for the year. We're only 4% off of the all-time highs in the market. It feels like a big drop. These are two big red days but you've got to keep it in perspective too. This could just be a little dip and we could rip back higher. I think a little damage might have been done here. We tried to bounce on Thursday and then we rolled back over. We may see some more legs to the downside. I don't think this is COVID crash 2.0 where we're going to be down 30-40%. But being down 4% now, having another little drop, another 4-5% being down 8-10% is certainly not out of the question. We are prepared for this. We've got a little bit of short delta in our portfolio and where we sit after today is we're a little bit less than one-to-one on our short delta versus our theta ratio. I was considering adding a little short here just in case this did roll over. Didn't end up doing it. Wanted to see if it was because it was a pretty solid bounce until the end of the day. We did in fact roll over. I didn't get any extra short delta on but the account is still positive even with down days like this. That is a good thing. Just make sure that you're comfortable with the amount of risk that you have on or the amount of hedge that you have on. We've got several verticals that I'll go through here today that are helping with that. Then we're continuing to add and take off and book winners day in, day out, week in, week out. That's the methodology here. Let's take a look at the, actually before we jump into the alerts, just a real quick recap of the week in day trading. Weekly P&L in the mighty 90 was a little over $1,900. Not a ton of mighty 90 trades this week. Only 10 trades total but only two losers. So 80% win rate which is nice. On the runners, had a couple of red days. Monday and Tuesday just small. Nice runners on Wednesday and Thursday and then a red day today. So basically a scratch on the runners for the week. 20 different trades right at 50% win rate on those. If we take a look, so the total summary for the week booked a little over $1,900 on the week between the two strategies. So still continuing to do very well. Nice bounce back from last week's red week. So that's always a good thing as well. All right. Let's jump into the alerts for the week starting with Monday. Did an opening trade in Amazon. This is a long call diagonal and what we're looking at here, if you go to our earnings class, a lot of times what we try to do is in anticipation of some upside momentum leading into earnings, we will buy calls or redo long call verticals. In this case, we're doing a long call diagonal. And the reason is is because we've got a pretty slim amount of risk if this thing does come down, which in fact it has. But we've got a good potential if it does in fact rally into the earnings announcement along with a spike in implied volatility. So if we look at our Amazon position here, you can see we're down a couple hundred dollars. But even after a week like this where we've seen this massive, pretty sizable downside move, we're still in a situation where if this thing just bounces a little bit into earnings, which in this case Amazon announces earnings on February 2. So we've got a few days next week where this thing might be able to bounce and we can still book a profit, but we shall see what happens there. Next alert was Facebook closing trade. So this was a long call diagonal that we did in Facebook, kind of a similar situation. On this one, we booked over 100% profit. On this piece, we had two different contracts. We booked half last week and then we took the remainder off this week for a nice profit overall in Facebook. Did a closing trade in SPX. This was an iron duck. This was when price was still higher before it fell, ran up big. So we closed it out, booked a big profit on that one. Facebook closing trade. So we also did a pre earnings long strangle in Facebook. And when it did have the up move, we're able to book this for small profit. I think we booked about 10% profit on it. So no big deal. We're targeting about 20. But on this up move, I didn't want to give back any profits. And so we went ahead and just took our money and ran, which ended up obviously in hindsight being a good thing because we took it off when price was up here. Had we held it, price rolled over and we would not have booked that. Now, we did have earnings coming up too. So that helped. We don't want to hold these through earnings. And so that was a whole anticipation is this run up into earnings, which did happen in Facebook. And so those both worked out very well for us. Tesla opening trade. So this was a earnings iron duck that we put on in Tesla. This was a little frustrating today because we were right smack dab in the middle of the duckhead hoping for a max profit of 716. Unfortunately, obviously, if you're watching the markets today, you know what happened. I mean, the whole the whole entire market came down and took Tesla with it. So Tesla moved down ended up down 5%. I mean, it took a 5% move lower in Tesla to create a loss for us on this. And so I had this conversation a little bit with a few folks in the community today is, you know, why, you know, some of the questions was it's kind of like, why didn't you take it off earlier when, you know, you were over 50% of max profit? The reason is when we trade iron ducks, the whole the whole premise of it is obviously just like a lot of our strategies, we are playing the probabilities. So you know, if price runs higher, you're booking these small beak profits, beak profits, beak profits, that's the most common thing that you're going to do. And those are nice, right? You book them and, you know, so you have no risk to the upside. But you've got if price comes down and it's come down in that duckhead area, you can't just you can't take it off early. And the reason is because if you get in the habit of always closing it out at 30% of max profit or 50% of max profit, because you're scared it might go down too far. Well, then overall, your PNL overall will be much less, if not negative overall, because what happens is you've got to you've got to book those big winners to to compensate for the risk involved as well. So the way that we have the criteria set up for the iron duck is to maximize profits over time. You know, there are going to be situations like this where the whole market falls apart, drags this in particular stock down with it. And we ended up having to take a loss on this trade where we did have a nice profit earlier in the day or yesterday. But you can't look at one trade and start making trading decisions based on that. Our criteria where we have it set up so that if we come down and we, you know, we have a loss that's equal to our initial credit received, that's when we exit. And that's the only time we exit unless we're closing it early for a big profit, which is this is all part of the course. But you know, think about this, if price would have come down and you would have booked profits early and we would have just got a little bit of a bounce in Tesla and booked max profit, you know, that that happens too. So you can't you can't start speculating and doing things based on, you know, how you feel about a trade after the fact you have to have. Now, if your set criteria is, Hey, I'm going to take this off at 50% of max profit every time. Okay. You know, I'll listen to that. But what you can't do is on any individual trade to trade. Sometimes I'm going to leave it for max profit. Sometimes I'm going to take it off early. You know, that that's when you start letting your emotions get into play. And then you're not trading by probabilities. You're trading by emotion. And that's what our strategies are designed to get away from is trading on trading based on probabilities and statistics, not on emotion or hype or what you feel is going to happen because because none of that really matters. So I took a loss on this one, but that happens. That's part of the game of trading. And so we'll move on to the next trade. And as long as you're keeping your position size small, taking a loss like this shouldn't even make you blink an eye. Because, you know, you're going to take losses like this. But over time, you're going to maximize your profits by using the criteria that we've developed of when to take it off, when to leave it on, that kind of thing. So hopefully that helps. Let's take a look at rut. Didn't opening trade in rut. When as price was coming down, we put on an iron duck in rut. Did this one with 16 days expiration? It's now at 14, I believe. So you can see prices just starting to come into the duckhead. So we still got a lot of room to the downside. If this market does continue, continue lower, we got 14 days left on this. So hopefully price kind of stays in our range. And we're able to book a nice profit on that one. Next trade Microsoft opening trade. So in this one, we did what's called a ratio double diagonal. And I added a link to a little video because we don't have a specific course on ratio double diagonals. This is kind of a hybrid between a weekly double calendar and some similar features to the strategy that Tim Weiss has been teaching the revised enhanced double diagonal. But the criteria was not the same as red. So I want to make sure I clarified that. So I sent out a little video so you can use this link if you if you haven't watched it, but we're targeting 20% on this trade. And basically what I'm looking at is after Microsoft released earnings, if you take a look at the options chain, what you'll see is that so Microsoft announced earnings in this week, right? These are the ones getting ready to expire. Well, if you look out in the very next week, a lot of times those options will still be elevated after the earnings were announced. And so what we wanted to do is we wanted to sell those because we we knew or we assume in a normal situation, those front week options are going to start decaying faster than some of these further dated options. So and you can see what happened that that's exactly what has happened where this was at like 38%. And this was at 36 when we put it on. Well, now this is at 36. And this is still at 36. So these options decayed faster than these. And so by by doing that, we put this on with a it's actually a calendar on the call side, you can see the 245 calendar on the call side and then the put diagonal on the put side the 225 230 puts. And so here's where we're at right now. We're up about $138 max capital max at risk here is 1405. So we're up about 10% on this, really targeting about a 20% return on capital. So if we move through time, if we take this off a day before expiration, which would be this day here, you know, looking to, you know, book somewhere around 230 240. And this is, you know, obviously volatility in price is going to change a lot of different factors. But if it stayed right here, that's kind of what we're doing is we're targeting about 20% return. Now obviously, if it moves a little bit higher on that day, we can book a lot more. If it moves lower in price could be less. But that is the plan with this trade. So we'll be looking at more of these. You know, I was looking at potentially do one on Apple or Facebook. But you want to do these on a day when just like a double calendar, you want to do it on a day when implied volatility is contracting or prices going higher. Obviously with today's massive down move and implied volatility spiking, I didn't want to put one on today. We may look at one next week on one of those other stocks that has just just announced earnings. And we've got some others coming up. We've got Amazon coming up and a couple other big ones. So I'd have some potential on those as well. So look for that in next week after those companies announced earnings. Next trade, SPX opening trade. This is a weekly double calendar. Put this on with eight days to expiration 11 in the back week. So we take a look at SPX. This is an iron duck that we have that expires next week. This one's right in the duckhead. So hopefully we can hold there and potentially book a book a nice profit there. The weekly double calendar is this one here. And you can see after today's down move prices come down, not, you know, just out of center here, but still well within range. So if we if we can stay here and take this off the day before or the day of exploration, we'll, you know, book a nice profit if it stays in range. And then lastly, while we're here on SPX, let's take a look at the other iron duck that we put on today. This is pretty close to where we just put it on. It's in the beak here. So got a lot of room to the downside here with this one that expires on 213, even with the move lower that we've seen today still have a 82% chance of probability of profit on that one. Next trade SPX weekly double calendar. So we had another weekly double calendar on this one, booked a really nice profit book, booked over 50% profit on that trade. We took that off with one day to expiration and booked a really nice profit on that one. SPX opening trade. So this is a iron duck that we put on with 14 days. That's the one that I just showed you. And lastly, Tesla, this is that closing earnings iron duck that I already mentioned. So let's take a look at some of these other positions we've got ES, which was got a long put vertical, you can see with this price moved down, we're now up over $577, $550 on this trade. If this continues to move down a little bit into next week, we'll go ahead and roll this out to the next cycle. This has 21 days to expiration. So we can go ahead and roll that out to March, which currently has 49 next week, we'll have 47 46 whenever we decide to do it. So that would be the plan in ES. Nat gas has been pretty strong for us, but down a few percent today, we are currently up about $840 since we did our last roll here. If we can get a little bounce here, I mean, if we get a bounce up to, you know, where we're up about $13, $1400, we will be profitable on this trade after all adjustments and rolls over the last few cycles. And so hopefully we can get a little bit of strength going into next week in Natty gas. We just bounce back up really above, you know, this high here up into that 2.8 region. We'll be able to book that and close that out for profit after that wild ride that we took with Natty gas. Let's see, bonds. Similar thing in bonds, we need a little bounce and bonds to get back into range here. And if we can do that, we will take that off and book a profit after all adjustments and rolls here as well. We got 21 days to expiration. So we could have rolled it today, but I'm going to wait until early next week. See if we do get a little bounce and then we'll just close it out. If not, we will roll and extend duration and go for another cycle. This is Apple, another one of our short Delta positions. This is a long put vertical and price was way out here, but with this down move, take a look at a chart of Apple. I mean, really big down move. Of course, Apple announced earnings as well, had absolutely blowout earnings, the best over $100 billion in revenue in one quarter, which is the biggest quarter of any company ever. And bright skies ahead, but the market taking that downturn brought Apple with it as well. And so a nice downside, which helped out our position here, getting us right back in our break even on this piece and still room to go if this thing does continue lower. This is Amazon. I showed you that one. Alibaba, we've got a couple of positions here. This is our call vertical side of our iron condor. So if you remember, if you had this on, price came through, broke through the break even so we closed out the put vertical side, booked max profit on that piece and then given this a chance to work its way back into range. Now we've got, this is in FEB, so we've still got 21 days left to expiration. So we're going to hold this. If we get some continued downside, we'll end up taking it off. Earnings is here on the second before market opens. So actually on the first, we will take this off. So regardless of where we are profit wise on the first, we'll take this off and close it out. We're not going to hold through earnings. And then we also have this long call diagonal. So if it price does go up, we'll benefit on this. So these are, you know, one's, one's bearish, one's bullish, but, you know, before earnings, we'll take both of them off and see what happens. Maybe we can do a little ping pong action and book both, but we will see. I never know what'll happen. Baidu, we've got this iron condor. We've been holding this thing what seems like forever. We put this on and then implied volatility really spiked up on us. And so we've been, we've been in range the whole time, but we've just never, still never had a chance to book a profit on this thing. And so hopefully we get some theta decay into next week. We have no earnings risk on this one. We're closing out before the earnings cycle happens. So if we can get a little bit of a contraction implied volatility, and this thing stays in range, we should be able to book a profit next week. I mean, if the markets do end up bouncing overall, or just kind of staying steady, we should get some decent implied volatility contraction and have a chance to book that one. John Deere. So this one had a big move down on Thursday. And I was going to give it one more day to see if it continued. And then we were going to roll it ended up snapping back, but still a decent profit. We're up about 153 since our last roll. So if we get some continuation to the downside, we'll roll this one out to March. We are currently in FEB, DIA, some short call verticals we have here, still a lot of room to the downside there before we would roll or do anything. Same with IWM. All these verticals are kind of in a similar, similar position. We're up about 40 some dollars on this one since we did our last roll. So looking for some more downside to benefit that. Microsoft, I mentioned that one, QQQ, another short call vertical piece, right inside range. So looking for some more downside to benefit that. SMH, we've got a short strangle here that we have adjusted because the price is pretty well centered here, even after this down move just left the center. We're up about 150 dollars since we did that last adjustment roll. And then lastly XLK, now the market just closed. So this P&L line's little goofy, but it's well within range here, but a lot of downside, a lot of benefit if it moves lower as well. So that's all the alerts. Those are all the positions. If you guys have any questions, let me know. Otherwise, have a good weekend and we will catch you next week.