 The following is a presentation of TFNN The power trading hour with your host David white Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 now David white Welcome all to another exciting edition of the power trading hour As we left you 23 hours ago We're within about three or four points on the S&P cash Guess yesterday afternoon Someone dropped a baby Ruth in the punch bowl, and we had a little bit of circle I continue to see options firm up around this area and think that we're gonna have some sideways action Generally sideways action is good for commodities at least action in the commodities not bearish or foolish but generally when not much is going on in the Bigger indexes and hard to say that we're not going anywhere with a 70-point bounce today But I have a feeling like I said yesterday that we're kind of homing in on that 4,600 area for a while and Gonna have to consolidate out. I expect that the Volatility will start to drop over the next few days. Then we'll get into options expiration starting on next Wednesday And That the whole cycle starts all over again Anyway, as always it doesn't matter where you're at as long as you're here at this time The following takes place between 2 p.m. And 3 p.m. So I had a lot of volume had a lot of Additional shorts They got everybody all breathing hot and heavy on the high side They've tried to wash everybody out at the low side twice generally the That kind of action just leads to sideways action on the indexes so I would home in on sectors and probably not even sectors but individual stocks themselves and Yeah, that's what we got to say anyway so far today Just back to where we were at this time yesterday Again every time The government talks about spending another two four five six seven eight hundred trillion dollars The market tanks tanks fairly quickly Unclear though we got a lot of cash coming in from the From the Fed still Still wonder where that taper is Don't see a lot that TLT For today tried to break out once again on the high side did fail got to to do one fifty two ninety nine Earlier today and now back Tim Ward is on in the next segment. So if you Want to call in that's at eight seven seven nine two seven six six four eight and make sure and give the engineer The ticker you want to look at because we'll have them. He'll have or we'll have him look at those during the breaks He's not a kind of on-the-fly kind of guy needs a few minutes to look at stuff So we'll give him that during the breaks. We already have a couple of people asking About some different stocks. So we'll try to get to that. He's got four charts today We're gonna talk a lot about bottoming signals As I said earlier Yesterday that a low he would repeat this as a mantra a low is not a low until it's been retested and That's what we look. We got a retest. We got a retest of the retest and Now the question is where do we go from here? But pretty stiff resistance right above these levels at least in the S&P catch And the question is are things getting a little better or getting worse Was this all a plan just to scare the bejesus out of everybody? Don't know but we'll find out I as I said from looking at charts and options Mostly looking rather flat for the next week Although I've put on some new positions Today in the commodities sector as I said earlier In the monologue always wanted to have like my own monologue. Anyway, I have an internal monologue But mostly it's words that I can't say on the radio Anyway that the internal monologue is all about how Commodities tend to do well when the markets go sideways and conditions are right for lower volatility going ahead Somewhere around 4,600. I think is where we want to go out tomorrow On the S&P at least that's what options look like at about 12 30 today. So we'll continue to keep a good eye on that Let's do a little history. We'll get that out of the way and Then we'll come back with Tim or to the or dash oracle calm and your questions and his charts Right after this On this day in 2001 the Enron Corporation falls for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in a New York court Sparking one of the largest corporate scandals in US history. This price has fell lay so large amounts of Enron stock Why Simon teniously encouraging Enroy Enron employees to buy more shares on the way down Assuring him that this was the company on the rebound Employees saw the retirement savings accounts wiped out as Enron stock Price continued to plummet after another energy company Diner G canceled plans for a eight point four million dollar buyout when they found out It was a house of cards in Ron filed for bankruptcy and of course the rest is rather history Of the folks prosecuted the King cheese CEO Died within two months of getting Convicted although he had a second trial on appeal coming up anyway That was vacated The but yeah, you know these guys sold I think around I want to say It was in the tens of billions of dollars of stock before it wall started circling the glow the drain I always loved that that the TV series About hackers a few years ago was all about the big company and of course they had the Enron e out in front of The company. What was it now? I can't even remember the name of that Show but it was great. It wasn't hackers I'm losing my mind in my old age But a great movie a great series anyway at least the first year second year they screwed the screwed the viewers over and It never would only recovered from that, but maybe the best first year of any series Does anybody in the den remember it the guy that later came out to play? Freddie Mercury and And the evil dude in the last James Bond movie Egyptian kid Although now he's older But that's kind of anyway when we get back. We'll look at it We're up 71 points on the S&P cash now is up 676 Nasdaq up 112 Russell's up 53 crude oil is up 74 and again What do we have here gold is down 19? So we've got that we've got Tim Ward of the or dash oracle.com and That's pretty much it. We'll be back in a minute with Tim or Are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader? 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Yep. Thanks for having me on again. So kind of interesting times here in the market Actually, I we can actually get right to the charts if you want to okay Yeah, this is a go to chart one And this is a pretty this kind of tells the story what's going to happen next anyhow, the market Overlasts, I don't know a couple three days But the second window down from the top is the sp500 advancing issues minus declining issues And when the market all dumps, you know really hard This this advancing issues minus declining issues will get down below 80 percent and We hit that a lot or over the last couple of days or last three days or so we hit it and that kind of indicates an oversold market and The red vertical lines show when those times happen In most cases, you're right near or right at a bottom And what's important now? Um Is how this market rallies off of this bottom? uh healthy markets This will go from merely minus 80 Up to plus 80 percent If it does that that suggests intermediate term wise the market should keep on going and so Since we pretty much still oversold on a short term basis here this next rally will kind of tell the story Of uh, how strong the market really is it fails to get above 80 percent There'll be an intermediate term warning sign that the At the market may be making some sort of a peak Uh, so it's kind of important here how this goes if you notice back in um, that september high of this year You notice the It never got above plus 80 and that was kind of peak mark went down pretty good after that so The market can't hit a new high here, but also we like to see The advanced decline hit 80 percent now there's 80 percent of the issues in the s&p 500 Were up So we'll see how this rally goes We did get along here a couple of days ago and that yesterday what yes, they've been better But we got along What's today thursday be tuesday we got long so We got along on the clothes and we're still holding that long We think the market is pretty oversold here And seasonality's favorable for the rest of the month actually this month is probably seasonality wise It's one of the best months of the year. So Probably not going to get a crash this month and But depends how this month performs going into january if we do make a new high and the Advanced minus declines fail to get above 80. Uh, that could point to a down january Um Then from there, we'll have to see what goes on from there So it'll be interesting how this rally performs over the uh coming weeks here. So I thought that was important Yeah When uh, I was getting started you always said at low it and low unless it's been retested Does yesterday's low need to be retested? Uh, well if you if you look at Uh, yesterday's low and you can't and compare the volume to the previous day's low, which was tuesday's low Uh, yesterday we broke new low, but volume shrank over 10 so And even though that low was it, you know, uh, Tuesday's low was it feed by by quite a bit over a percent I think it was um, I don't think we're going to go back down and and test Uh, yes Day's low because it broke the previous low on lighter 10 percent at least 10 lighter volume So if we close above the previous low, which today we need to close above, I think what 40 I'm looking at the sp y's here. It looks like about 45 55 area we close above that That would suggest if you can't hold below the previous lows You'll attempt to take out the previous highs and the previous highs I think was what monday's high So that's an upside target So and how is that tested? We'll determine what kind of you know Stare step we go higher or we if we don't have the volume to get through it then Then that could flip us in Lisa at trading range There's another interesting thing too At market tops, you know, big tops don't really form until there's a lisa 5 correction before Uh, the final tops and I think september then we have a five percent correction or something september down to the october low um So if that was a five percent, I I meant to do that before it came on today, but normally market tops just don't be a A 30 decline The arm is the first top That kind of weakens the market first before it makes the final top And so back in september, I think we did have a five percent correction So this top here has the potential to make a bigger Uh bigger top form because you already seen a five percent the next one could be Bigger than that even though we may be fine this month. Um, I'm starting to see january could be a down month as one's saying yeah, so That may change How strong this rally goes again if we get to advance the clients up to plus 80 percent here the next few days Then uh, that was just market has enough energy to push higher You know into january and maybe beyond if we fail to get above that 80 percent threshold then um And even though we make new highs Uh, that was still suggest that the market doesn't have a lot of strength to keep pushing forward So it'll be interesting over the next 30 days what goes on here, but uh I still think december will probably be an up month. There's a good chance. We'll probably break new highs Um And depends on the strength of the new highs what will determine what may happen next so Okay, do you have a you have a piece of paper there? I do We've got some requests, uh, and I figured that during the breaks Maybe you can start taking a look at some of these and uh as we have time we've got Three more charts of years to go through But we see the first one here is nike in k e In k e Yeah, and then uh wants to take a look at natural gas, which is u and g great And see what else do we have out here anybody else? I know there was a couple of them out here Um Yeah, I'll find the rest of them. There's at least two of them for us to look at We'll try to interspersed those in the rest of your charts when we come back from our break here in about two and a half minutes Uh, when we look at the market out here, uh, kind of banging back up at the resistance We saw yesterday, uh 74 points on the s and p cash. Let me update that just to make sure Uh, to the up 71s, excuse me, uh dows up uh 679 nasdaq's up 118 rustles up 57 crude oil up 54 gold Downing key we'll be back You having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with Become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the tigers den trading room only at tfnn.com The tigers den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas Join the den and surround yourself with these sharpest minds in the trading world Subscribers to the tigers den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air And can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows Interact with other tigers and tigers is as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day Subscribe to the tigers den risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee and become part of the tfnn trading community tfnn educating investors You could be making money off the stock market and if you're already making money off the stock market You could be making a lot more Check out tfnn and tiger tv and get expert investing advice to give you the power to control your financial future Go to tfnn.com and find a newsletter for you Whether you're into trading gold metals futures currencies or options You'll get advice and analysis to help you seriously get ahead tfnn also features trading services with a 30 day money back guarantee for new subscribers As well as tfnn's tiger den trading room trading software and educational webinars for all trading levels And make sure you check out tiger tv for free on tfnn.com or tfnn's youtube channel for live financial content From 8 30 a.m. To 4 p.m. Eastern on market days stop watching on the sidelines while other people get rich and become the investor You were born to be tfnn educating investors tfnn is excited about our new software charting program the art of timing the trade charts In collaboration with tom o'brien and using his best-selling book the art of timing the trade your ultimate trading mastery system David white has programmed an outstanding piece of software that will complement any trader's methodology Using this first of its kind program the art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups including guardleys abc's butterflies and much more The art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks Just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months Searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only 79 dollars a month We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day Unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software Get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com As we return uh markets still kind of hovering around this uh 45 91 i'm looking just like i was yesterday for a close around 4600 on the s&p cash back with uh tim or to the or dash oracle.com And uh, are we finished with chart number one? Yep. Yeah, we can move on to chart Two Okay We can go over that briefly all this is um the top window is a 10 day average of the trend The bottom window is a three-day average the next window up from the bottom is a two-day average And the window above that is a five-day average So you got a two-day average all the way up to a five-day average of the trend and when you get all of them in bullish territories, which is On the on the 10 day trend is like 1.2 We're at 1.28 and if you get it on the five-day trend you get above uh Looks like about 1.3. We're at 1.49 on the two-day trend, uh, it's above 1.5 or it 1.88 and on the two-day trend is above 1.5 or at 1.65 But normally when this when these trends all in the two Two day to three day five day and 10 day are all of In bullish territory usually the markets associated there are markets, uh sold off enough Uh intermediate term wise that the rally can continue in a lot of times If you get these readings while the market's going up, the usually goes up higher if you look back in, uh First part of november here uh Even though the market was in an uptrend all those averages of the trend were actually in bullish territory And actually I added to my position a long position because of that and the markets finally went higher over the next couple of weeks And same thing happened back in august of uh last year You know, it was an uptrend but all the uh arms index all got back into bullish territory suggesting the trend should continue So it works pretty good. Um to find out When when the trends all the average trends are in bullish territory usually continues If you notice right now all the trends right now are in bullish territory Also and usually they they don't proceed in any big declines. So uh time frame wise were Uh in a good time where the market's probably going to rally over the next month maybe two months and um And it depends, you know, if the trend gets real low it would be a sign uh When the average trends get as they all them get below one That's usually kind of a bad sign for the market doesn't really have energy to push higher A lot of times they can turn into tops, but uh in our case right now This is for the next several weeks in how this looks like a pretty good sign That in general this mark is probably going to move higher So just one point. That's how that's one way I use the trend There's a double different other ways, but when the trend's above, you know, 1.5 normally that means there's more volume On the declining stocks than the up stocks and you would think that would be bearish, but it's not So it's the other way around so Anyhow, that's pretty much all I have to say on the trend. This is kind of an intermediate term uh signal I suggest there's probably uh, the selling's probably done and at least uh Multi-week rallies probably just about ready to begin if it has already done So it's kind of a good indicator for a little bit longer time frames that go out very far But it gives a common all clear for the next maybe 30 days or so So you want to take you want to take one of those charts or the one of the companies that uh, we had one of our listeners call in on about right here Yeah, Nike. I'm looking at Nike right here and this last correction. I was looking on the weekly because uh The market's kind of been really choppy here for the last couple of weeks, but from the low of uh of June there uh to the high of the recent high we just had here in in november And the market retrace going into that Looks like about the october low Uh, uh 61.8 percent Excuse me And that always kind of worries me. It's not a perfect indicator, but uh as the market's kind of flying high, which this one was Because that last uh consolidation that started in you know, basically uh january of uh 2021 and it looked like you know kind of went sideways into june of 2021 That was real bullish because it didn't retrace anything It pretty much went sideways and kind of explosion up then um then That explosion up led to a 61.8 percent retrace and now we're hitting new highs Um, or we're at the previous highs of looks like uh august there and the market's kind of having a trading range developed here Uh, so this is not ideal. I'll put it that way. You don't like to see a market retrace 61.8 percent of this previous previous rally So, um, Bollinger bands are starting to squeeze here. Uh, so this pattern if it holds up here um It's it's hard to say if it's going to hold above the previous highs and push higher But the market's having uh some highs here or have it it's having Tested the previous highs and it's not really punched through it to get through a previous high You should see a sign of strength If you notice the volume at the previous as the test this previous highs is kind of lack lustering So you have a 61.8 percent retracement, which is not good and you're not really having a sign of strength through the previous highs so you know You need more development. I guess to really make the decision but Um, if you had to stop on this position, I'd definitely leave that stop on But you don't want to see a retracement here Uh of this previous rally from the recent low in in october there Uh of another six one twenty eight percent if you do that again Then the whole thing turns into three drives to the top pattern and that could Tell us some trouble, but we're not seeing a sign of strength and the last leg down was kind of deep against the previous leg up so You know, it's to me. It's not a buy the Bollinger bands also on the week Leaves are starting to pinch here too. So it's getting ready to move It may just be more sideways consolation. Probably to year ends what i'm thinking Okay, because we're not gonna have a minute and a half previous high You we got about a minute and a half left, uh, u and g natural gas uh I don't think we've you know, it looks like so we're making uh But it Give you one second to pull it up Here it is. All right I went back and looked at a monthly chart and Bollinger bands are starting to squeeze and he had his sinus strength on the monthly chart This last high but also it's kind of a buying climax And he had another kind of a selling climax Well, you had big volume jump. So the market's getting to do something I don't think we've turned the corner to the upside But at least we're probably starting a base period here And I think it's the client's kind of done, but I don't think the uptrend's really started yet I think more or less we're gonna go sideways here Uh, that's how i'm doing it We'll be back in a minute. We've got a couple more charts to look at with uh tim and of course one of those being gold So everybody's waiting for that. We'll be back in a minute Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? 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If you trade china a shares now may be time to take a closer look Trade chau or chad Directions daily csi 300 china a share bull and bear etf's china a shares in either direction Visit direction investments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact direction shares at eight six six four seven six seven five two three The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk Including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC Don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day Go to tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv dance tfnn.com and hit watch tiger tv As we come back to break. Uh, we've got hit or dead or go on we're talking stocks today as usual Uh, we're gonna go to chart three anybody that wants charts hang on a second Anybody that wants these charts can email me at path tfnn.com and why tim is talking. I'll be Sending them out as quickly as I can so you can look at them at all the high resolution that they originally had Go ahead tim All right Let's do a chart four first Okay And as you can they'll they'll flow a little bit better Go ahead All right. So, uh, this this chart. This is actually a Continuous contract for gold the chart, uh Well, I'm thinking is probably but in my view. This is what What's happening here is the head and shoulders bottom And the may or the march april period was the head And we're screwing around with the right shoulder right now And this is consolidation. I'm calling even though it did go down pretty much It was kind of sideways move and it peaked back in august 2020. So Uh head and shoulder patterns usually are real symmetric both in time and price And a lot of times if the right shoulder looks similar to the left shoulder It gives more credibility to the pattern Uh to through the head and shoulder's pattern and also there's a lot of symmetry in time Now there's a left shoulder a lot of times are equal in time to the right shoulder I have a cycle there that that blew Oh cycle lines in other words, I took the august And cycled it to where it may end and I'm pretty close in time right now That the left shoulder is pretty much equal to the right shoulder So time wise pretty good For I think a breakout of this head and shoulders if you go down right below the chart You'll see a flow stochastic and this is an uh, this is a Uh weekly uh time frame here So the cascades is oversold on the weekly and it's just starting to bend Will it bend up don't know it hasn't yet But I think we're in a critical area right here Pretty much uh right now. There's a lot of symmetry everything kind of is winding up here Well, Wynnum rules all indicators And if Wynnum's going up it'll Trumped all of the indicators that are bearish And but it hasn't turned up yet And so anyhow, there's a lot of symmetry here Uh the trend the neckline comes in around 1850 So to get through that trend line you you'll need a sinus strength, which is basically a high volume high price Fast move through that line if that happens that will be a confirmation that this indeed it had shoulders bottom And you had a sinus strength through the neckline confirming the whole pattern So that hasn't happened yet either But we're getting signs here that may not be too far away Um, that's great. Now you flip to the next chart, which is chart number three Is a monthly chart um, and this chart goes back to 2018 And uh, you have time to put that one up yet. It's already up Okay, uh, anyhow, I did a Fibonacci retracement level From the 2018 low and took it to the august 2020 high The market pretty much only retraced, uh, 31.8 percent retracement of that big move That was a big move over, you know, two and a half year period or two year period And it's just really hanging strong The more a market retraces the more weaker it is And normally a normal retracement is 50 percent And kind of a When a market retraces 61.8 percent kind of shows the market's in a weak position Well, this one's holding around 31.8 percent showing it's a strong position and uh, go down Right below the volume chart here This is the monthly chart now and the monthly slow stochastic actually has turned up So you got the weekly turning and you got the monthly already turned up and again momentum rules everything and uh, so You go along them, especially on the monthly charts the momentum is up. So This chart's in a bullish position on the monthly time frame. It's only retraced 31.8 20 percent retracement and the monthly exposed stochastics already turned up. So Again, you should see a sign of strength through the 1850 area. That's where that neckline lies and um, a lot of times if the market Only traces, uh, 31.8 percent retracement a lot of times that marks the halfway point of the move so So we're at the halfway point Right now. So you add that on to where So anyhow, you come up, uh, you know in the 20 I don't know. I haven't done that calculation recently. I forgot what it was, but just right now if this Uh Check analysis works out like supposed to we're at the halfway point of the next move up. So it's quite a substantial rally to come Uh, so when we got the, you know, the The corners, uh, the virus out there. We got uh, china starting to have a little bit conflict So with a strong gold market using when that happened you got conflicts in the world. So um, that could be Kind of bearish for the market and actually bullish for a lot of these gold issues what seems to be happening here. So But you know, that's uh, that's a two-step Uh, you know for the weeklies showing a decent Demetric head and shoulders bottom forming and the cycles are pretty much lined up This is a monthly chart the cycles have turned up. So I think the rally If it does come I think it should show its face You know my opinion for the years out, which is only the next 30 days. So we'll see Today it ain't doing anything Uh worthwhile, but uh More mostly when these breakouts occur Most of time they're they're not anticipated if they are anticipated probably the breakout will fail will fail Uh, if it isn't anticipated And everybody's surprised use that's when the rally will continue It's kind of lined up there because nobody um, there's a sentiment indicator for gold called the uh daily Seminite index and it's at extremely low levels Right now it's been there for about the last 30 days And so everybody's kind of bored with gold or giving up on it and that's a really good sign here a minute term. So Um, that's my opinion on gold Okay When we come back, uh We've got a bunch of charts what you won't be able to get to But uh, we'll probably do the last segment, which is only two minutes long So we'll have to be brief. But why don't you uh, take a look at the chart of the smh That's the semi conductors and we'll handle that when we do return But tim or to the or dash oracle dot com author of uh, again Close that smh Sam and mary Howard All right, we'll do anyway author of the secret science of price and volume Uh, and uh as we go to break here up 68 points on the scp cash dow's up 656 nasdaq's up 111 russell's up 61 crudes up a buck 46 now uh, gold's down 17 60 And uh, I never bring up bitcoin. What's that thing doing? 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You can call 877-518-9190 That's 877-518-9190 catch tom o' brian professional trader and educator founder of tfnn also a special guest on cnbc Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the tom o' brian show next on tfnn And as we wrap the show up We've got tim orton Less than two minutes. So why don't we take a look at the smh's tim? All right, uh, I pulled it up charlotte. I look at the kind of the bigger chart trying to figure out where we are And I noticed over the years when you do a this is a weekly chart when you do a 50 day moving average um And put on smh and the market gets above 20 percent of that 50 day moving average Usually it's kind of it means a short-term exhaustion move and I just did the statistics on this one That's around 18 percent Because you had a kind of a big surge up and got away with that 50 day line And you know if it stays fairly close to it that's usually a good sign is it's not Not going up too fast not going up too slow But when it goes way past it quite a bit like it has over the last couple of months Um, that's about you know, it could be just a minor pullback But usually when it does pull back usually goes back to that line Which comes in as of today Um, where is it about 256? Uh, so you can see a pullback 256, but other than that, you know, obviously the things that are an uptrend And I kind of look over the last couple of weeks here. It looks like kind of like parabolic. So it may You know, but this way it's gone up too fast too quick on a short-term basis and it's due for Uh, possibly a pullback. So Uh, other than that, you know, there's no topping pattern forming yet that I see um you know Nothing really volume-wise. It's any really big clues a lot of times you get buying climaxes right at the end That hasn't happened here yet. You know, it's like selling climaxes uh, so I think it's an uptrend, but it's not a good buy Uh, at least we get some sort of short-term consolidation. So And and that may work with the market. I think, you know, january's starting to look like uh for the markets anyhow Equity markets are kind of not looking good right now So we want to thank you uh for being on today tim tim order the orc dash oracle Remember to sell when you can not when you have to and we'll see you here tomorrow the same bat channel same bat time All right. Thank you