 Everybody welcome to the weekly NFA live show. I am joined as ever guy from coin bureau guy. Welcome back to the show for a 46 or 47th episode something like that and of course to be him. Yeah, right? We made it we made it to the bear market and of course as as ever Bitcoin dominance been from any of the cryptiverse. Thanks for stopping by Yes charged Just we got some I picked some interesting questions for everybody because I The way that the market's going no one really knows of course, but I'd like just gets your insights about what exactly is happening So the first thing I want to talk about is this Yesterday and I want to I want to thank you Ben for actually posting all this stuff on on your X account because I follow you And it's makes things a lot easier all the things that drum pal has said So drone Powell came out yesterday and he sounded pretty darned hawk hawkish Now because of that the market's dropped off yesterday I mean we could see a little bit of a decline in the crypto market itself And now that we know I mean not for a fact things can change that March as he has said is not going to bring us any Ray cuts will the crypto and market and macro markets trade sideways For at least this entire first and second quarter, or do you think things will be just fine? And actually we'll see a marvelous bull run heading into the Bitcoin halving which is in roughly 84 days or so so I want to get your opinion on that first of all You know what? So Ben I'll start with you and then guy if you give some insight as well and we'll go from there Let me go ahead and share my screen That's a good idea. Can you see it? I Can see it's great. Yeah. Yeah, I just wanted to look at a couple of different things So I mean there's there's often sort of like a pre-having drop Right, right where you kind of in the first few months of the halving year We don't really do a whole lot and now this halving year has been a little different in some regards because we have the spot Etf so there's a lot of hype Going into into the halving year, but then once the halving year arrives we often get sort of a dip and a lot of times We don't really make any substantial moves until a few months into the halving year, right? I mean, that's pretty standard So I think it certainly could play out like that. There's other ways to look at it as well Like looking at the ROI this is one of the interesting charts like ROI after cycle peak And let me just get rid of her cycle like so in the current cycle We're actually ahead of both prior cycles right in the green right so I mean I I do it's sort of like last cycle we were we were also ahead at one point and Eventually we got sort of the mean reversion. I do think eventually we will get some form of mean reversion back down to where we Should be I mean you can see both prior cycles were Not this elevated from the peak At this stage, but history shows it can you know We can stay elevated for a long time before we ultimately get that mean reversion and then you can also look at it You know ROI from from the the lows of 2022 and if you look at it like that and we just look at the last If we just look at say like the last couple of cycles if you measure it like that We're sort of right in between where those those last two cycles were so I mean it seems like we are Where are we normally are? Measured from the peak it sort of seems like we're ahead a slightly ahead and I did a video recently that looks at The what was it the value days destroyed multiples. It's an on-chain metric. It's actually created by TXMC sees got a pretty good Twitter account I would encourage people to follow him if they don't but this it shows that we are A bit a bit more heated than we have normally been at this stage of the having year, right? Like it normally an early having year this metric is a lot more subdued and You can see all prior having years It's a lot more subdued this time We're actually quite a bit further up and I almost wonder if one of the reasons for that If you go back to that like year-to-date RLI chart of Bitcoin, yeah, you look at you look at 2023 2023 was unlike most pre-having years where we basically just went up the entire year And and actually yeah, I know Rob's excited about that Actually what what what 2023 looks like more so than a pre-having year if you average out all prior election years So having years yeah 2023 looks a lot more similar to having year returns then it Say, you know taking the average of 2015 and 2019 and Those out right you can see the average 2015 and 2019 is way down here in 2023 Bitcoin exceeded what it typically gets an a pre-having year So, you know, there's some elements to say we are a bit, you know a bit He did so I wouldn't be surprised at all To just see us go through a a cool off phase Before you know before the having and that that is quite common with that said I will remind people that when Bitcoin gets moving like it has been it's really hard to predict where the actual local top is so I'm not going to try to stand in the way of it if it if it wants to go higher I think if it does go higher It could just be sort of chasing the next narrative, which I know a lot of people were sort of flipping to a theory For the spot the spot ETF narrative for ETH that could be coming around in May But the problem with that is that the having narrative comes before May. So I still think that As you mentioned earlier, I still think that the dominance will flow Excellent response. So a guy having heard of all that can you Douse a little cold water on Ben's enthusiasm and bullishness and give us a little bit of a Slight one, of course, I'm kidding Ben. Ben's like, I'm not bullish. What are you talking about? But but but what do you think about that because I got to tell you like like the thing that that you said Ben was about, you know, we're ahead of the curve right now I mean as far as like the pre-having or the having as based on the having years But guy, what do you see? How do you feel what's gonna happen as far as like first quarters Q1 Q2 of this year? Well, I think I think it's good to sort of I'll frame it a bit in in response to in response to what we saw from Jerome yesterday You know Jerome being hawkish and rate cuts, you know, no rate cuts this month, which I don't think anyone realistically expected So whether or not we see, you know, whether or not we see markets going up or trading sideways for the rest of the quarter I think I mean really depends on on the data that we get that the Fed gets between now and then because They've always said That they're data dependent above all else. That's what Jerome that's one of Jerome's many talking points, isn't it? It's like they'll watch they'll watch the data and make decisions from that So and obviously I think, you know What the markets do if they if they pump or or chop sideways depends on the possibility of rate cuts being on the table So if that data shows inflation Continuing to come down Employment starting to weaken. I think that's a crucial element of it as well as a slowing in GDP growth then rate cuts could very well be, you know back on the table and I think My member rightly the CME seems to be, you know factoring them in March, I think there's a fairly low chance, but I think may is you know more realistic That we'll see them by then And of course it ties into it ties into long-term interest rates as well I think there are rumblings that you know that the Fed is going to stop tapering Which should take pressure off those long-term interest rates Because you know that this tapering in you know, the Fed is running off tens of billions of dollars in bonds every month You know, I think if the Fed will stop that taper then then then those you know those long-term interest rates should fall The interesting thing is that you know long-term interest rates still came down I say, you know still down I think after yesterday's announcement which in theory should be you know should be bullish for markets if they if they keep falling But I think you know again comes back to the data and I think I think it's jobs jobs data tomorrow So yeah, you know again as I say if we see if we see a sign of employment starting to weaken on the back If those jobs numbers are you know, and not great Then I think you know then that the possibility of rate cuts becomes more More likely and hence, you know a better chance that we'll see up and up into the right Well, let's see. I gotta tell you a good response is I will tell you like I'm hoping I'm hoping for some sideways action because I feel like I never accumulate as much as I should have So I think if there's sideways action, it'll be boring people will drop off That's just pretty much how it is but again, this is where all the riches are essentially made people can accumulate Not during the massive bull run blow off top. It's usually around these times when people start to really Make all their funds moving forward. So excellent response. This is gentlemen. I appreciate it How about let's switch gears and talk about great great scale. So Apparently we did a show just not too long ago We talked about how great this Bitcoin ETF is and everybody was very bullish and it was quite lackluster to put it mildly but that was because of the Outflows from FTX and essentially grayscale, but now it looks like that the outflows themselves are actually slowing down So will we see this type of supply shock that people are all talking about because as things slow down You know and then the other big nine ETF inflows so we can see this is a chart here from Hey, Apollo The trend is looking pretty positive as far as the grayscale Bitcoin outflows. Look at that. I'm not a TA person But I think this looks good Guy what do you think here? Are we gonna see that mythical supply shock that the pundits keep talking about? So supply shock you mean you mean supply hitting them excess supply hitting the market to tank the price It could be excess excess supply or it could be that hey that these outflows are starting to slow down And maybe these ETFs actually get bought up by the black rocks and the fidel with these and things like that And then there's only so much that that can actually go around on the OTC desks Which would be coin based and whichever ones are being hold holding it Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course, I mean as we I think we talked about this last week Didn't we we said that the the outflows from grayscale you know, they were they they were finite and There I think there's always gonna be there's always gonna be a you know a number of people who decide for one reason or another To keep them out to keep their you know keep holding GBTC Which doesn't make a huge amount of sense to me, but still obviously some people are going to do that and Yeah, in terms of the other ETFs I think again, we touched on this idea that it will probably be a slow accumulation You know, it'll be this slow process of Investment advisors talking to their clients mentioning these Bitcoin ETFs, you know Their clients going away and thinking about it and gradually I think you know, I don't think it's going to be a torrent I think it's going to be a sort of steady a steady trickle of Money flowing into these ETFs. So, you know, that will that will eat up some of the supply and but of course there are other there are other Sources of of supply there that could hit the market. I mean, I think Prices took a dip a few days ago. Didn't they when when the US government did its Did it sort of regular thing of announcing that it was going to sell some some of its Bitcoin holdings obviously, you know sees from Silk Road and what have you And actually interestingly, I saw a couple of other headlines kind of in that in that vein Just over the last couple of days, I think German authorities seized something in the region of sort of 50k Bitcoin, which is you know, billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin and actually the UK Also, I think see 69 K BTC as well. So You know, there's the if presumably if they look to sell then then that's a fairly hefty amount of BTC that could hit the market My my friendly enough my theory on this is that Because central banks are going to be allowed to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets from the 1st of January 25 What we're seeing actually now is is nation states, you know, basically seeding their seeding their their Bitcoin stashes But that's that's pure speculation on my part. And of course, you've also got things like Mt. Gox You know, I know Mt. Gox is Won't go away But I mean, I've seen reports that, you know, those payments are reportedly, you know have reportedly starting up started up Some creditors have actually got their money back So there's that there's also the light selling from the likes of Celsius, although I think Celsius is mostly selling mostly seems to be unstaking and selling ETH And of course, you mentioned Rob FTX as well. They they were the ones offloading a lot of GBTC I presume they have some regular BTC that they're going to look to offload And of course, I think there was an announcement either yesterday or earlier today That they expect to to pay back all their creditors And I think that's something that's, you know, they're talking about happening this year. So There are certainly there is certainly some some excess supply Sort of sloshing around out there that could that could hit the market and could suppress the price But yeah, I mean whether of course, you know, as I say, like German and you know, the UK Germany and the US government would be much better off Hoddling, but whether they'll actually do that. I mean, you know, the US government has sold off a lot of Bitcoin already So I don't see why they won't sell off any more And of course, you know, you can add to that I think one of the one of the things that helps sort of take the take the wind out of the ETF inflows was the fact that a lot of Bitcoin whales sold into that, you know, sold the news Of the ETFs and we could still see that We could also see I wonder as well possibly selling coming from miners because obviously they're looking at this You know, they've got the upcoming halving and that is going to be that is going to be potentially quite tough on them And some miners I think are really going to get hit hard by that So I think that's something to bear in mind as well, you know Will they look to sell some some Bitcoin? Will they be forced to sell some Bitcoin to you know to cover costs ahead of this ahead of this sort of supply shock that they're Going to experience, you know more More pointedly than anyone than anyone else. So yeah, there's a few there's a few sources of Excess BTC out there, I suppose man excellent excellent everything there guy I mean you really laid it out pretty well got then do you want to try to follow that one with any kind of that? What else is there to say exactly the interesting thing about FTX which is kind of a bummer for people is that I think they're They're getting paid out Theoretically, but only at what the price was back then so like if you were going to be someone If you were going to be someone that was just going to sell your crypto at the bottom Then you're basically getting what you would have gotten but if you're the person that was gonna, you know, huddle it For the next, you know year then you're clearly taking a big haircut on that which you know kind of sucks for those people I mean, it's good news that you're getting something back But bad news that you're not really getting back What you you know what you would Yeah, there have been some people that have posted some charts recently actually today Of some sell pressure coming in from the miners Which I think is actually pretty standard anytime Bitcoin gets a you know a big run-up in price in a short time the miners usually Take advantage of that and and sell into it but you know, there there's been several instances of that already this year and It sort of slowed the price down But it didn't you know, it didn't just completely send it back down, right? Again, sort of mark it down for a while I think I mean, you know Guy covered, you know the the supply side. I think the other side is just the demand side Will there you know, will the demand be there? and That's sort of the bigger question is you know as we get into Later and later in the business cycle, right the closer and closer we get to rate cuts We have to start weighing, you know, will people Be able to speculate as much as they want to or are they going to be fighting other? Macro risks, you know that that no one really wants to be fighting. So that's the other side of it So yeah, I think guy covered all the supply side stuff important things to consider The only other side is is the demand side and we'll see if if that can continue to come through I'd also be curious and I think I mentioned this before if the if the After the outflows from GBTC are sort of over do the inflows into the other ones Continue at the same pace or they also fall off. I don't know I mean, I think one of you guys mentioned like, you know, there's I know there's rules about like buying and selling too close But I don't know if it's considered the same the same asset if you're going from like one ETF to another one with different fees I don't I don't really know how that works. Do you as as I understand it is some form of like wash trading if you're going to take any type of deductions or Tax benefits from it. So if you're gonna say yes, I lost money You can't go back into it if you say something like well, I'm not gonna claim anything on there You can get right back in but a little bit murky But that's what as I understand it again, everybody can correct me the comment section which they love to do So, of course we can go from there I mean like I think the market is a lot bigger than people think it is a lot of times like if you think about it Like think about back in like, you know may of 2022 we had sailor announcing all these Bitcoin He was buying we had even even the what Luna they were backing. Yeah a lot of their stuff they had bought a lot of Bitcoin and Everyone was super excited about that and then the market, you know still ended up going down So, I mean I'm not saying it's gonna play out in the same way I think a lot of the the crypto specific risks have been washed out already But it's just a reminder that a lot of times the market is bigger than we than we think it is So just because you're getting a few hundred million of of either in flows or outflows Oftentimes the market doesn't really move a whole lot in response to that. Yeah, you know what? I never thought about that of like, I mean sailor was really buying everything in the halving year or 20 Well, you know Yeah, and then and then we had Luna and they came on and then of course we had Good old Elon Musk coming in and saying, you know what? We're gonna buy up a Bitcoin as well And they think they rounded up around 60,000 Bitcoin and all of that You still take a look at the chart that you showed and we're like even above what we were before so yeah It is amazing. Just how far along we are So I I personally think at the risk of selling very bullish This is gonna be a pretty darn good bull run, but it could be wrong wrong many times and then before I mean, I think One, you know, you talk it would talking about sailor and Elon Musk as being the sort of big buyers last time around and Ben mentioning terror Which is you know, they they were they bought a huge amount which they obviously then had to nuke into the market But of course, we've got a big we've got another big buyer this time around and tether, you know, these guys are I mean They they're allocating a proportion of their profits to Bitcoin I mean, we have to I guess we have to kind of take them at their word on that because they're you know Not the most transparent organization out there, but I mean these are guys who made this company Did you see that stat the other day tether made more last quarter and golden I Really mind blowing isn't it? So, you know, we've got we've got this this absolute beast You know, there's two billion dollar plus profit beast I'm Bitcoin as well. So I think that's something to you know to bear in mind on the on the on the demand side It means it's absolutely crazy. And like I say you do have to Sort of take them at their word for it. Um, but if that's you know, if they really are buying that amount of Bitcoin I mean, they're making such insane profits. Um, that is you know, that is gonna hoover up a lot of a lot of BTC in the in the long term Ladies and gentlemen, do not adjust your television set We are very bullish today and that is not likely But these are the these are the data that we the data points that we look at and I will just to bring it back Just a little bit of reality as before everybody gets a little bit crazy. London says it writes A lot lol Mike Novogratz Luna to the moon tattoo So remember that that as we move into this this bull market, we're gonna see some crazy stuff and Those will be one of those instances just like Mike Novogratz with his nice Luna tattoo or whatever If if Paolo Arduino or someone like that comes out with a you know, some crazy tattoo, then then we'll know we're in trouble That's what they call the top I think so yes So just to just to piggyback on what Ben was asking about about minor the minors This is minor revenue and of course we see these in the four-year time frames And yeah, as soon as the halving goes I mean essentially doing the same amount of work for half amount of The of the revenue and of course it just drops off So these guys these you know these these Bitcoin minors everything starts to go into a frenzy going into I mean it doesn't look like a frenzy over here Does it but it didn't look like that over on this side? So as we get into it, of course, there's gonna be this is the great thing about The mining platform which is that as time goes on and the mining companies are not profitable the other mining Companies shut down and because of that the difficulty rate drops and because of that The other miners are able to use their computational power and actually become competitive. So that's just how it goes But remember there is one thing it's called ordinals And there's a reason why the Bitcoin miner fees went bonkers not too long ago and it Mr. Teal I forgot to the CEO of Mara came out on one of the talk shows or different podcasts and said yeah We've made more in Bitcoin mining fees for you know ordinals and transcription services Then we did for the actual rewards for for Bitcoin. So just remember that there is a use case coming over there There's a lot of Bitcoin maxes don't like it. Okay. So yeah, I'll take care of that piece anything to add before we move on Great no to Nixon. All right next one this one and we've got a couple to go But so we'll speed up a little bit Kathy Wood Ark investments. She said the optimal risk-adjusted portfolio balance was 19.4% in 2023 in 2022 again risk adjusted 6.2% and in 2015 0.5% Then I know you're big on risk What do you think the appropriate risk-adjusted portfolio should look like for 2024 and of course you we can't get financial advice We're not financial advisors, but how would you kind of divvy this up as far as a risk-adjusted portfolio? Yeah, I mean I guess it first depends on like, you know, is it Interasset class intra asset class if you're gonna know she's talking about you're looking at it as a whole not just in crypto If you're if you first look at it to take some, you know Some leeway with your question and and first talk about it like within crypto and then I'll answer the other question Within crypto if you're just looking at say a portfolio consisting of Bitcoin and ETH Your your sharp ratio. So your sharp ratio is maximized. So your risk-adjusted returns are maximized with set and this is between just Bitcoin and ETH 76% Bitcoin and 24% ETH if you're trying to maximize the sortino ratio, which does not punish negative volatility Which I think makes more sense than the sharp ratio 78% Bitcoin 23% ETH and if you're trying to minimize volatility Which is kind of where I my risk Super risk of herself has has more so gone to It's more like 93 percent Bitcoin And only seven percent ETH and again, like some of my views have been that like, you know ETH or Bitcoin Is still struggling and and you know if you think about it like a lot last week It had had a pretty good run-up and then this past week. It just sort of sold off again ETH, you know sold off back to Bitcoin So I still think you know within crypto. I think being Bitcoin heavy. I still think makes the most sense Um And but there are some altcoins that that of course outperform. So if you're looking to take on that risk Uh, just know that you know, there's there's certainly a lot more risk in the altcoin market than there is in Bitcoin because even if you know, even if there were some type of like black swan event or geopolitical event or Whatever that might be everything would take a hit but Bitcoin would more likely recover Um than any random altcoin. So I think within crypto You have to you know, it makes really a lot of sense to stick mostly with bitcoin and you could add on You know some other some other altcoins onto this and like calculate it out like you could add a couple of relics Um that I've been around for a while Unfortunately, you have to have coins that have been around for a while for the tool to work if they've only been around one cycle It doesn't really work But you can see that when you add in altcoins it still calls for mostly bitcoin, right? Poor light coins still comes in at zero percent Oh, no, I think the reason you know, I really do think the reason is like the only time that light coin tends to Durably outperform bitcoin is like the first half of its having year And and not even then like not even not always even then does it outperform it? Um And and so you have to be careful like you have to be careful with some of the altcoins But again, you can add in a lot in here and show that as far as like outside of crypto Um What should be it really depends on I guess how how confident you are in the future Of of of crypto. I mean, I'm pretty confident. So my my ratio um For a while has been Has been pretty elevated, but I mean, I think the I think the numbers that that kathy put out are Pretty reasonable like if you if you're really pro bitcoin, what did she say 20%? Yeah 19.6 20. Yeah I mean, yeah, I think that's I think that's a you know A reasonable number if you as long as your outlook is sort of a multi-year outlook Like as long as you're as long as you're not going to be the person that's going to like you know Sell it if we if we drop, you know percent or something Um, but yeah, if you have a longer term outlook, I I think that's fine I I don't think for for me personally. I know there's some people out there that are just like, you know 90 percent bitcoin 100 percent bitcoin and nothing else I I think that's that's too risky. I think for me um Because the problem is is occasionally the market crashes right occasionally the market crashes and and if if the markets do crash You know like the s and p doesn't you know like apple doesn't crash as much as crypto, right? Right, so you want some of your net worth I think in other assets that are not as likely to crash like 80 percent or 70 percent, right? I mean, we know they can go down 20 or 30 percent, but they're likely not going to go down 80 percent So I think it makes some sense to have you know have to have some spread out across You know index funds low expense ratio index funds There's actually a lot of research showing that the higher the expense ratio the less your performance Because even sometimes the manager of the fund can be skilled But they that doesn't always all it doesn't typically offset the fees that they're taking from you So the lower the expense ratio, I think the better. So that's what I go with You know bitcoin I think having some in cash getting earning the risk-free rate Uh in in case there's in case there are dips and and the market Goes down. I think that makes a lot of sense And you could also hedge too with with some commodities like um, like you know gold and silver But those things those things move at a at a snail's pace. So don't don't look to those for to make you rich overnight What that's all that's all we're here for ben Yeah, I know Hey, I know that's why people are here. Yeah Hey before guy, I so I'm gonna same question for you before I go on Ben, what else do you invest into? Because it's it's bitcoin I know I mean bitcoin I do have a tiny bit of of ease, but it's not it's not it's no I haven't bought any ease um in in a couple in a few years Because I just think it's bleeding back to bitcoin. So like I'm just kind of under the impression if you're gonna buy anything I just buy bitcoin. Um, I have index funds. So like fz rox solo It's basically a zero percent expense ratio index fund. Um, not that covers the u.s. markets. There's Uh, f fz ilx f or fz ilx. That's the international market, but um, the united states market has been drastically outperforming You know global markets for a long time, you know, perhaps you could argue there's some type of mean diversion in play But that's not been the case for a long time. Um, so I still think that um, and then I think there's some other You know, there's definitely other companies like I mean like apple I think is you know, I have of course, I have I've had a position with them for I don't I'm not a huge buyer of Individual stocks to be completely honest. I mostly just stick with index funds Um, but there are a few companies that I think like if I use their product like I I I can often have a um, I often don't feel bad having a position in that in that company um, like apple, I mean, I you know, I have an iphone I have a I mean like Like everybody else on the planet. Well, we see Right. Yeah, and I'm not I'm not I mean, I know that I know that their stock could take a downturn if we have You know if the economy slows down, but I'm not under the impression that they won't survive it, right? They're going to survive Um, whatever whatever happens. So Yeah, I think yeah, just some other random um, I mean sometimes I'll pick up positions and some of the miners um, you know, but Yeah, just So essentially a more balanced portfolio guy same thing also and also some cash I mean, I know that's sort of the job But yeah, and and also earning the five and a half percent risk rate Hey, look everybody cash. I don't know about you, but if I'm going to do something Illicit, I'm not going to use the blockchain for everybody to see it So if you cash is king in that situation guy same question to parter Before you know, we talk about that but what else are you investing into besides crypto? And then what do you see us for like a balanced portfolio the same question about the uh, Kathy wood Well, um In terms of what else i'm investing into other than crypto not a lot everything's everything's everything's going into crypto at the moment I am keeping I am following Ben's advice and keeping keeping a fairly large sort of cash pile on hand Because yeah, I mean, I think we could see you know, we could very well see a drawdown before You know before we go before we go to all-time highs in in the bull market So I want to have that on hand my situation is kind of complicated a little bit by leaving the uk Uh, you know a year and a half ago because uh, I had to sell I had to sell my stocks um Did you I couldn't yeah, which was a real pain um, so I'm sort of I'm not quite all in crypto because I still have property in the uk um, but On that it's sort of most, you know, it's mostly crypto and and and a bit of cash um The investing landscape out here in the ua. I'm still sort of slightly come into terms of that, you know, whether I want to Whether I want to kind of use stock trading platform out here I'm not I'm not 100 convinced I do so. Yeah, it I'm my My risk tolerances has has got to be sort of fairly high at the moment just out of necessity um, but you know, I I regard bitcoin as because I've because I'm sort of so In crypto as it were I I'm almost sort of regarding bitcoin as a as a safe haven asset Um, yeah, you know in general rather than just in crypto Which I think is probably not quite the the attitude I should be taking. So um Yeah, that's that's kind of that's where I am with with investments at the moment It's you know, fairly simple crypto cash and a bit of property Great. So within that portfolio mostly crypto, which I got to tell you It's a pretty smart position because even more above it says invest into things that you are uh, expertly familiar with and uh, I gotta tell you Nobody else that's uh, you know knows more than you do on these these topics. So within that portfolio that you have How are you allocating it? Is it because I know we talked about this before it's mostly bitcoin But have you done anything else lately? Yeah, yeah, I've gone. I've gone in a few different directions. Um, I have well, I mean, I you know, I'm about 42 percent bitcoin about 30 percent ETH Um, then the sort of dry powder, you know dry powder with with usd t My next biggest position after that is pith, which I've talked about before, you know pith network Yeah, yeah, exactly and and and some soul And some uh atom those are my sort of big holdings and then I've got smaller smaller allocations things like thought chain Um And uh sentinel which is a sort of decentralized VPN. Um, I ate into that. That's a cosmos project. So Um, yeah, that's that's sort of my allocate crypto allocations as such and then, you know smaller amounts of various other things. Um But yeah, I mean Because I sort of I you know, I hear I hear a lot of very Intelligent people saying, you know, what with what with one thing and another, you know We could be we could be headed for a fairly big crash in q2 So which would suggest that, you know, I should be sort of sitting on my sitting on my hands and doing nothing You know accumulating cash ahead of that the thing is, you know, what keeps what really sort of keeps me up at night Is well, what if we're not, you know So I am sort of, you know, I'm trying to kind of hedge my bets in a little way like get into projects that I'm sort of interested in um at this stage, but you know, I'm I'm sort of Hesitating a little bit because I think, you know, there is a decent chance that we could see that we could see a big crash And I want to be I want to be sort of prepared for that if it comes Excellent, you know, and this is this what makes us this this show great because ben is very The careful and plotting along and it's worked out pretty well If you say if you if you denominate a lot of especially in the last week or so Denominate everything in bitcoin you can see that bitcoin's been a pretty good winner And you really couldn't go couldn't go wrong in that situation and for like a lot of people, you know Who have gotten into different equities and stocks and different positions? They're feeling it right now and even though like you could say well, you know, bitcoin's very volatile If you go if you have a long time frame, you're actually doing pretty good So for all of us, I can see this is like this is this is what makes the show go around and I appreciate The responses and just to just to back this up and we were talking about the things that the crazy stuff that we all do Uh, I can just show you that Here's my portfolio a little crazy, but it's mostly bitcoin But there's a lot of different all coins out there You got a therium soul near cardano abax and the whole plethora and then underneath here. It says other 67 plus This is all the dust that I've had accumulated from the nonsense that I've I've I've paid for over the different cycles since 2017 So take it with a grain of salt But I will say just to get back to to ben's point and to steal stuff from his website Which is a great website links in the description. Check it out if you Because I've been this is this there's this thing that's been haunting me and we talked about this before about the the real estate that we We've bought into and if I just take a look at I mean talking about the different condos that we just sold but it doesn't matter if I take a lump sum If you took a lump sum in 2020 february 1st going four years back, right? Which would be the halving year on the same date and just said, you know what I'm just going to put a thousand bucks into bitcoin Just so everybody knows In that time frame you would have been down as time went on When the corona sickness came around You would have lost like 50% And if only if you sold but look at this if you just would have put a thousand bucks in And just waited to hit the first top you would have sixth almost seven x'd Over here six seven x somewhere on there and even today who would have done absolutely nothing You'd still be at four and a half x So like when people talk about this they're like well, it's kind of risky It's whatever else try doing that in any other category. I've tried it. It does not work Especially I mean equities and precious metals petership. Sorry And of course real estate you can't do that So I think again we're in the right place the right time not to sound too overly Bullish all right, right, but I that's important that you only it's important that There would have been some people that would have Panicked during the the pandemic and sold so people have to be aware that like guys like that volatility It can happen and if it does happen, it's not the death of bitcoin, right? It just it's something that bitcoin occasionally does and then on the other side of it We just recover from it, right? So you just have to have to keep that longer time frame in mind Yeah, I got it. Yeah, excellent So let's finish this up Last one before we get into Q&A is a lot of good questions Usually when we get to this this point not even this point, but when things start to heat up you start to get these like external Indicators those indicators are essentially the people that are around you like hey, what about that magical bitcoin nerd money? What's going on with that? Should I get into that? Should I get into that? And then of course everything else that you see around here. Have you guys seen any of those indicators? Personally family friends close to you Anybody can take this one you know, I had a um I had a a neighbor at the bus stop, but this was back in This was actually before the spotty tf. This was like maybe back in november or december that brought it up but he's also he's also really tech savvy and and so I don't I don't it's sort of like He doesn't invest in bitcoin, but the fact that he said it made me knew that we were getting somewhat heated, you know But it's not like I I don't think the average Random person out there is really talking about it. And actually if you can show the the chart that I'm looking at I'm sorry here Like this show this I mean think about how much bitcoin has gone up over the last What year and a half or so eight uh 15 months? This is a 30-day simple moving average of youtube views to a lot of different crypto youtube channels including r3 coin girl Mine and and digital asset news. What's fascinating? is that views keep putting in lower highs so Like I mean guys, uh, but this is the thing. It's like like it just is what it is, right? I mean like there's like there there are definitely people out there that have taken notice of bitcoin Based on the price action and and yeah, like it's been in the news because of the spotty tf but when you think about like youtube views and and stuff to all these youtube channels They're still trending down, right? They're still trending down and I think it's because of um Like we just haven't we I think we need to to shift over Into into looser monetary policy for for retail to really get interested again, right? And so like there's people like us who will just stay no matter what right and we'll watch it But sort of the the more fringe investors that only get interested when when everything is moving Right and they just immediately leave the minute prices go sideways or down like look at what happens and it goes it interest goes up as price goes up, but then as As price starts to fade we just keep putting in lower lows on social interest, right? You can see these lower lows on social interest. So I I think that yes, there are a few people talking about it But we're nowhere near like we're nowhere near like sort of the um The hype in terms of social interest that we were at back in back in like 2021 as you can as you can see Ah So close but yet so far guy anybody coming into you go like hey man, should I get into this now or should I ape in or not? Well, yeah, because I mean that's been that's been one of my that's been something I've been keeping my ear to the ground To hear when I was back in the uk over christmas. I was sort of like, okay you know because me um Katie my wife and I we go back and we see a lot of friends that we don't you know that we don't Otherwise see very much of throughout the rest of the year and I was thinking I wonder if anyone is going to pull me aside And you know start asking which cryptos they should ape into and no one did No, but everyone's like, oh, how are you getting on with your how are you getting on with your youtube thing? Oh great, you know um And I said but I did have a conversation with a couple of people who were sort of you know Who sort of kind of know a little bit about it? Um, and I said well obviously the big thing at the moment is the spot bitcoin etf You know that's that's that's driving a lot of interest and they both looked at me and went. What's an etf? nah We've got we've got a long way to go We are we are not near the beginning of that journey yet. Um So yeah, I mean I haven't you know, I haven't had I haven't had people You know in my dms sort of going what should I buy? You know, what's what's going on my dad occasionally asks me about the price of bitcoin Um, so yeah that so those yeah, and and when and when you see the when you look at the data that ben pulled up You know, it correlates with that and and I think that is ben's ben's 100% right That is tied into to monetary policy because I think these sort of fringe investors are the sort of people who will invest in crypto If they have a few extra pounds dollars euros whatever it is in their pocket at the end of the month And at the moment, you know interest rates are high interest rates And you know and mortgage rates in places like the uk Have climbed massively. So people are having to you know, people are having to service debts You know people have got the cost of living crisis has got worse. So I don't think many people have a few extra Pounds dollars or whatever left over at the end of the month, which would in better times in easier times Um have found its way into crypto. I don't think they have that And until they do have that until interest rates come down until people's mortgage payments Stop, you know eating up all their spare cash Um, I don't think we're going to see the the the bull market that we're all waiting for Yep, rates have to come down and then the magical money printer has to be turned on It's it's an election year. So they're probably going to cut rates at some point And the funny thing is if you think about like when all the major You know when all these major peaks have previously occurred it was in the post-having years, right? It wasn't even in the having years But this time be different. I don't know. I know some people have have speculated about like a Like a left translated cycle Um, which that could happen, but this this shows the um The you know the hodl waves the hodl waves the this is short term So basically anyone who's holding bitcoin for six months or less You can see that you know at at peaks where Everyone and their grandmother is talking about bitcoin You can see that that's where all the short-term holders come in right at these right You can see that there's still not That much interest right now, right? Like I mean there's been there's interest amongst people like us, right who have been here the whole time But there still isn't a lot of interest from outside and and I don't think we're going to see that outside interest really pour in until until you know power finally caves And and pal's probably probably not going to cave until you know it may at the earliest. I guess I yeah, I will guess so all right excellent responses everybody So that will take care of the news portion and the the the questions now We're going to get into a little bit more of the q&a got about 10 minutes or so And we'll go over the people their question that they have but again if you are not subscribed which I find that Hard to believe it's a guy or to bend to their respective channels their links are in the description You can check them out So gents, let's go over this and do a little q&a and get out of here So first things first. I have to apologize to everybody because of the fantastic thumbnail that my assistant created Unfortunately, j pal was not the special guest. I'm sorry. He did look that way Even ben had to ask me that Before we started and he had a good point boy if we could just get j pal on the show How great would that be? Oh, I think he's calling me. Oh, he said he says they'll cut rates when dominates is at 60 percent Yeah, exactly. That's what that's what we're saying. Ben's like, you know, what'd be great if he came out and just said, you know What if bitcoin dominance does this then of course, you know, we'll cut the rate That's what everybody's waiting for. Actually, I'm waiting for the two hour bitcoin dominance video that apparently never gets made But uh, i'm just i'm still asking for it, but here we are All right Questions, ah Luis Luis was a little bit says besides bitcoin and soul. What should we be accumulating at this time now? not financial advice we can't give this to you but What do you guys think here as far as like accumulation because we're in the accumulation zone I mean we just talked about it and we're doing pretty well, but what should you guys look into? I know ben's answer, but then go like I I've always said like after bitcoin comes ethereum. I think um Like if you want to take on more risk than bitcoin, I think ethereum is the next obvious play I the the reason I haven't taken on ethereum is just because I you know It to me it just seems like it's bleeding back to bitcoin right now But yeah, I think if you if you want to go back out of a bitcoin. I think I mean, I personally think eth comes before Solana I thought might be a little controversial, but that's that's my I think ethereum. I mean it's been around longer I think it's proven itself more And actually if you were to I can pull this up um I think you have to be you have to be careful. Can I share my screen one last time? No, yes, of course. Just put it in there. I'll throw it on there Yeah, so a lot of altcoins a lot of alt ether valuations are oscillators at best. And so this is the soul ether valuation And so like it, you know, it hit these highs over here and it just hit them again And it could come back up and hit it again but the point is is like I think ethereum would probably would probably be a little you know I would say eth would come before Solana at this point Maybe if maybe if the soul ether valuation were you know further down It would make but I mean again, you have to remember that If Solana just went on a massive move, so it is certainly certainly more risky gosh, you know, I will say Uh before before guy you chime in I will say that There's really there's two things every time the market says, you know what we're going to go this way It's Solana or not, you know in this situation. It's Solana or nothing It's really dominating the altcoins the meme coins and everybody's using it Every time we hear the same narrative The market's like just fooled you and they do something else And the second thing I will say is this and this is from the the contacts I have made down here in portorico They pretty much tell me like rob never count ethereum out and the reason why is because there's so much money rolled into that You think those people are going to let that money slide you got another thing coming So, uh, expect a push coming into q2 on that one. But guy, what do you think about this? Yeah, I think I mean, yeah, eth has been eth has been bleeding against btc for months on end now Um, and I think but there are two. I think big catalysts for for eth in the future one is You know these etfs that keep getting talked about. Um, you know, standard charted came out yesterday or the day before Saying, oh, you know, we reckon 23rd of may we'll get them and they were, you know, they were predicting a 4k eth around that time I mean standard charted. I think, you know love making price predictions So you have to take them with a pinch of salt like any price But you know eth I think is yeah, don't write ethereum off The other big thing of course is the denkun upgrade. I think, you know, they've they've gone through two test nets now I think the final test net is next week And then it will go live on main net I fairly soon. I think within the next few weeks now that is make that's mainly Going to be beneficial for ethereum's layer twos. It's going to make them Uh, we looked at a report from coin shares. Uh, just recently we've been putting together a video on that and they were saying um The denkun upgrade will make these ethereum layer twos 10 to 100 times cheaper And 45 to 100 times faster Um, wow, I mean if that's true big if true as they say big if true, so I think, you know, I think that's something to bear in, you know, that's something to bear in mind It's kind of up for debate how much denkun is going to affect ethereum itself Because the layer twos are going to benefit so that is arguably going to take away Um, you know move move more transactions onto the layer twos away from the ethereum main chain So that will mean less activity less eth being burned for fees So, you know, obviously it won't it won't be as deflationary as it has been in the past but of course Denkun is all part of a much bigger cycle of upgrades moving towards, you know Moving towards dank sharding moving towards, you know, this This world where transacting on ethereum becomes way way cheaper in the future than it does now. So And of course, yeah, if it as you said rob, there's so much money tied up in the ethereum ecosystem Um, and there's so much development there. They've got more active developers than any other than any other project out there So I think yeah, I think ethereum eth could be could be a good one a good one to watch and its layer twos I'm I'm kind of bullish on its layer twos at the moment. Um, I picked up a little bit of Arb and a little bit of imx recently Um, because I think, you know, they could I think they're set to benefit from the from the denkun upgrade So I think yeah ethereum and its layer twos are definitely worth looking at. Um And of course, I've been I'm bullish on on projects in the cosmos ecosystem as well I think there are some very exciting ones coming there too Excellent. Hey, did you or did you ever do a video on the the upgrade the ethereum upgrade you was talking about denkun? We're putting one together now So I'm hoping it will come out. We did it. We did an ethereum update in general a few weeks ago But uh, we're gonna we're doing one on denkun and that'll be next week. I think tuesday I think with any luck. This is why I watch your channel. Thanks guy So I To be before the next one. I will just say this Uh, when we were talking about solana what what louis was talking about I did I have the second channel dan dj and it's a it's a channel. Essentially we go outside the top 300 Essentially, you're going to lose all your money or you may you may some pretty good profits One of those two things will happen and on this channel I was actually did a giveaway Of the myro meme solana meme coin and I did it live and we gave away Well, this is like the last two nights the first night we gave around Around $1,000 worth the second night we gave around $1,200 worth And we did this live everybody They just filled out a form that gave me their solana address And it was just so quick and easy and fast And everybody was you know, it worked out pretty well I was kind of a little bit nervous the first night because i'm like, you know, solana works pretty well But this just shows you like how fast cheap and easy it can actually be when you know Things actually work out right now people are going to say, ah, well, it's not decentralized and it goes down That's true. I mean that's true for like the last 334 days or something like that, but if we're just looking at How things work fast or cheap or easier as long as pretty good But just like guide said and you know then also don't discounty and we go from there All right, but I mean isn't um, isn't the phantom wallet It's a joy to use isn't it they the phantom wallet interface is just so simple And I think when you when you compare that with something like metamask It's like wow, you know that there is you know, solana is doing a lot right You know, it's fast it's cheap But it's all you know the ui and I always bang on about the ui in In crypto because I think it's so important. I think it's you know bad ui shuts shuts out new people Yeah, I mean solana's doing a lot right in that regard Yeah, and like I said like when we're doing this and we're doing this like again and again 20 transactions I and every time I did a transaction I counted it and it was between three seconds to 10 seconds every single time And then people in the chat were saying thanks. I got it. Thanks. I got it. Thanks. I got it So again works out pretty well and we're gonna do one tomorrow night. So Follow me on x and I'll show you too. All right, so let's see It's a good one and then we this will probably be it guys, but it's a good And in segway, how do you guys handle burnout because let's be honest We've been in this this game for quite some time What you have is to stay fresh and not get crushed by information overload Especially, you know Ben and all the kids and the different things they do and then guy all the moving How do you guys do this? I mean, I think you just have to have a plan right I think it's kind of all comes back to just have a plan and stick to it and kind of tune everything Tune a lot of the stuff out and just say all right. I'm gonna I'm just gonna keep my head down and and focus on the projects that I I think have a future and I will deal with the volatility that that comes if it comes but I think that's what you have to do because I mean there's always going to be something To worry about right and and there's always going to be occasional Reasons for a crash and then occasionally there will be a crash, right? But yeah, I think you just have to have a plan And you just stick to it no matter what and that usually works out over the long haul if you if you if you do something and like you You know you start buying and then you if you watch bitcoin drop 40 percent if you're gonna like panic sell into that Then that's not really a great plan, right? You know you you don't selling it you if you're if you're going to sell you should sell into strength not into weakness Um, because if you're selling into a crash, then there's a good chance just bounces and and leaves you behind Um, so yeah, I'd say just have a plan stick to it and and I think it's okay to sort of tune in and see what's going on But I wouldn't I wouldn't base all your investment decisions based on You know what you know what the latest data is coming out or any of that stuff Yeah, we all said have a plan stick to it because that's all that's going to save you guys same thing I've I've found I've been a lot stricter about routine Lately that was one of my sort of new year's resolutions So I get I've always been quite good at getting up in the morning and I get up in the morning I get up early because I'm a morning person But I have a rule that I read a book For a you know a physical book For an hour Before and drink coffee and and you know just generally sort of chill before I turn on any device before I because once my phone Laptop are on that's it, you know, I'm I'm I'm in I'm checking prices. I'm checking the news, etc. And I'm and I'm following it So but to have that hour at the beginning of the day and also at the end of the day So my I've started turning my phone Onto airplane mode at eight o'clock Um, and that really helps, you know, because you're sort of like I'm done with this What let what what will happen will happen and I'll deal with it in the morning um and uh, yeah, and my Katie and I we don't we don't talk about work at home anymore. We used to do that a bit I used to come home and you know just talk work and complain about stuff or whatever Um, but now I just just just I just don't do it So it I think it's just about and that you know having that as a as a set routine Works really well, and I think just having some time away from it You know, it's always there again in the morning without fail So I think that's I think that's really important, you know read and just do I think the more I think the more non-internet stuff you can do the better Excellent responses. I got to do that, especially with the uh nonsense that's going on with x all right everybody So that's we're coming up on an hour. That is it. Shout out to uh Head is east gifted five visualized the news memberships. I appreciate that and to the five people that got the memberships to the channel Thank you so much everybody follow guy and ben links are in the description. That's it for this week next week I believe we're on guys channel Yes, and we go from there. So everybody thanks so much like and subscribe. See you on the next one