 Okay, welcome traders. It is 1 p.m. British summertime. Welcome to this week's live market and trading out this session with me, Patrick Munley. Before we get going, can I just check, do a quick audio and visual check here? If you can hear me loud and clear and you can see the welcome screen, if you just type a Y into the chat box, so I know that we are good to go. Testing audio, 1, 2, 3. If you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen, can you type a Y in the chat box, please? Good stuff. Okay, let's get going here. First of all, as always, I want to adhere to the risk disclaimer and most importantly for today's session, what we want to pay attention to is the fact that the views expressed by me are solely mine. They are not indicative or representative of those held by Tickmill UK or Tickmill Europe Limited. So for those of you who are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself after I graduated from university. I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriately at that stage, day gambling. After some early beginners' luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as it's often the case, my beginners' luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure financial here. To say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and I sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years was a time during which I had not just my technical gain in terms of researching, developing, sensibly back-and-forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. Most importantly, though, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mentor game and probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investments and hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over this extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion-dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've met hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos shared through the tick mill trading view account. I'll post a link for you to access those videos later in the session. I also run tick mills rapidly growing E-mini strategy group where I post a daily video outlining my pre-market trading plan for the New York cash trading session of the S&P 500. I give my bias for the day and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 2500 points of profit since we launched the group last year. The second tick mill strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The tick mill futures trading telegram group is a real-time environment or a daily basis. I share in-depth insights, analysis and trades. I also provide live market commentary during the opening hour of the New York cash trading session where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay, so that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from. Let's jump into today's charts. What I would say before I begin is I'm going to cover a bunch of markets where I see imminent potential trading opportunities. If you have any questions, if you just type them into the chat box and once I finish running through the charts that I'm tracking, I'll cover off any questions you've got. Equally, if you've got an instrument you want me to take a look at that I don't cover in my presentation, then you can just pop that into the chat box and I'll give you a view on that at the end of the presentation. I'll give you my email address. I'll put my email address on the screen at the end of the session. Antonio, you can get in touch with me via email. Okay, so let's get going starting with the S&P 500. Now for those who follow the trading view accounts, the technical trading view account where I post the setups here, you'll be aware that I was looking for a correction higher in the S&P 500. Now I use an analysis tool whereby I track the prior corrective swings in the cycle and then I overlay them versus a trainable or a local low to give me an idea of target zones where price may start to run into offers. So in this move that we had into that 39, just below the 3950s, you can see that three of the last six corrections completed by then and also this doesn't just give me a price level, it also gives me a time level. So we can see here that this corrective move completed in a similar time scale to this correction here and since then we've got an outside reversal day on Wednesday and we are following through to the downside. Now in terms of downside targets, if we take out the 3760, 3750 today in the cash trading session, what I would anticipate is we are going to take a look at 3620. Now why is 3620 important? Well 3620 would be an equal decline to the COVID crash that we saw during the pandemic. Now that doesn't mean to say that that's you know this is where the market is definitely going to stall but certainly if we work on the premise of market memory and the idea that the market is essentially made up of a bunch of human beings making decisions about price and value, given a similar set of circumstances or a similar scale in move you will find that programmatic trading will probably kick in in terms of the potential for profit taking at least or by stepping into the market as they see that symmetry swing so to speak in terms of corrections. So that's going to be the key area I'm going to be watching as we head into today. We've obviously got month and quarter ends so we can see some pretty erratic price action around the close there today with position squaring and window dressing in terms of portfolio managers. So 3620 is going to be key today. If we take out 3620 then we are looking at 3500 which represents a 50% retracement of the advanced scene since the COVID lows put in and if we get through there then the next target area for me is this high volume load which comes in just below those post pandemic crash highs there 3414 so I've been looking for a test into 3390s is a key area where once again I'll be watching to see if buyers step in to engage on the long side. I'm currently in short positions in the S&P 500 moment and so I'm going to pay close attention like I say to this 3750 3760 area today in the cash trading session we'll take that out then we're looking for that 3620 as the next downside target through there we look for 3500 as the 50% retracement objective. Moving to the NASDAQ now NASDAQ again using this similar tool of measuring prior rally attempts in the move to the downside the NASDAQ didn't meet either well failed to meet the minimum price objective that we were anticipating which comes in just above 12400 and we're in an interesting area here this area is the equality objective versus the prior swing highs here at 15269 so this 15505 level is key if we can if we head into the cash session buyers step back in and we can take it back through the highs of today 11714 what we could see develop is this type of scenario so if we hold our current swing lows here then we could get a next leg up in terms of corrective swing here which would take us into that price objective the equality objective there would be 12650 however if we fail to to hold support here at the 11500 then I'd be anticipating further weakness to develop back down retesting the prior lows on route to a test of this descending trendline support 10700 and then below there we have the confluence area of the 61.8% retracement and the 131 extension from our swing highs up here so that comes in 10,380 to 10,500 area so if we fail to to find support here then we'd be looking for another leg down to test lower into that 10,500 10,300 area but we'll see if as cash trading starts in New York if we get some responsive buying there is the potential that we can complete an ABC correction there in terms of the NASDAQ Dow obviously weak as well in line with with the other indexes so really again there's the potential for another leg of corrective upside here but if we don't find or sorry another useful tool to use if we take out the 78.6% retracement so the 30,130 area if we fail there the next downside objective is going to be the 127 extension of this prior advance gives us 29,000 just about 29,000 and just check in here what we've got 50% retracement 27,400 and 70s 27,370 is the 131 extension so that would be the next target zone on the downside if we continue to see weakness so it's really going to be key today and and into tomorrow certainly as well to see if we can hold these retracement areas to set us up for another leg of corrective upside or if we or if the correction is complete here and we roll over to the downside we know where our next downside objectives are and the one that that is most interesting to me at the moment is this Russell because the Russell out of all the US indexes the major US indices the Russell is the only one that hasn't tested its equality objective yet and that equality objective comes in at 15,079 and interestingly as well sorry 15,079 not 15,000 interestingly as well these coincide with the weekly high volume nodes so I'm going to pay close attention to the Russell further weakness so if we let me just draw this in for you so any move through this trend line support here would be an opportunity on the short side so taking out 16,70 would set up that test then of the 15,70 so 100 points of downside to play for there so a nice risk reward scenario in terms of the Russell Dax we talked about last week the key for the Dax was to hold on to this weekly trend line we're taking it out at the moment now any close that takes out this prior low 12,430 and this high volume node 12,350 that's going to be pivotal because if you take that out on a closing basis then the next downside objective for the Dax is the equality objective which comes in at 11,129 and we've also got the 61.8 so the placement there at 11,230 so we're really paying close attention to the weekly close here on the Dax and if we take out that prior low and that high volume node then we want to be focused on the short side with those downside objectives in mind Nikkei in line with the other indexes is reversing here any weekly close that takes out 25,540 bearish development and then we are targeting the equality objective down to 22,550 moving to the FX space taking a look at dollar index we are setting up for this eventual fifth wave test here and the target for me on this one is this R3 now this is going to be a pivotal test here especially if we get it today because what we've got coming into today like I said at the beginning is we've got month end rebalancing taking place and portfolio managers due to the disparity between performance of US and other equities are having to are basically having to buy dollars to rebalance their books and that could see this dollar index finally pop into our target zone here 106 30s 106 17s from there as long as we maintain this momentum divergence I'm going to be moving into dollar short positions certainly thinking about corrective move back into test support to the one in 130 area will be the target for me on the downside initially because we should see this completion of this fifth wave move and then in terms of further downside targets we can see the weekly trend line support coming in just above the 100 level 150 so pay close attention to the 430 UK time that's when you get the London fixing flows if you see a really nice spike in the dollar and then a reversal that's going to be an opportunity to move into tactical short positions in the dollar to my mind anyway equally here with the euro any breakthrough the support at 103 50 the target is 102 40 on the downside so that would broadly co coalesce with the dollar testing about that 106 from there I'm watching bullish reversal patterns to trade tactically long euros looking for a move back into that one in 350 and then the trend channel support comes in 104 70s sterling we held that 120 we've got nice with a decent reversal not so not as not as strong as we would like to have seen but we obviously are seeing sterling weakness in line with the other majors so we could break those here um through that one 1930 giving us a test of 118 from there be watching for bullish reversal patterns looking for the trend channel test there 120 180 so again sterling top is going to take its lead today and tomorrow from the dollar index so we really want to pay close attention to that dollar index because that's going to give us the key signal the confirmation signal with respect to these effects majors donnie yen is another one I'm paying very close attention to I think this has the potential to ping up and test now the ascending wedge resistance come in 137 70s from there a watch bullet bearish reversal patterns as long as we maintain negative divergence here in terms of the momentum indicators and then we look for a break of the trend line support 135 and I think that gives us a move back down to 131 for a corrective play there in terms of the dollar yen and taking its lead from the yields we talked about this last week we've got a pretty meaningful double top in place here at the 3.248 percent the test of our target zone of 3.5 and have reversed sharply and these yields have been trading in close correlation to the dollar yen so this weakness we're starting to see in the yields on the recession fears should what starts away on the dollar yen and give credence to that setup in terms of the wedge pattern bunch of other yens I'm watching this euro yen is looking weak to me getting an outside reversal here and we are flipping the five five-week volume waste average price bearish here so I'm going to be looking to be short dollar yen through 141 30 initially targeting 139 46 but ultimately I'm looking for this high-volume node 136 70 as the next downside objective sterling yen as well rolling over I'm looking for sterling yen to take out last week those and I want to engage on the short side targeting to move down to test trend line support into the 158 area we have that high volume node there as well 156 30 so those are some of the downside targets we're looking for as we break last week's lows in terms of sterling yen again flipping that five-week volume waste average price bearish as an additional confirmation we haven't really been able to get any traction above the 166 handle in terms of dollar yen and similarly in the euro yen we've been rejected now three times nice topping tail patterns from the the yearly r3 we've got nice momentum divergence in place I'm really favoring some of these yens as short opportunities Aussie yen holding up pretty nicely actually holding this this trend line support so really I'd need to close through that trend line support and the high-volume node here to engage on the short side looking for a test of 90 49 alternative we break higher than I'm looking for triple divergence to develop and this ending diagonal pattern 97 80s what's bearish reversal patterns and I'll be engaging there on the short side cad yen holding up with the with a bit of a pop that we've seen in crude I'd really want to see a close back through 103 50s to start to think about short positions and then target the base here 98 29 and the high volume node just above their 99 80s with the downside objectives Kiwi yen any close through this trend line support I think it's an opportunity on the short side again we're getting a bearish reversal in terms of the weekly volume waste average price gives us a target zone down here trend line support 79 20s so a decent move to play for there in terms of Kiwi yen once we take out this trend line support dollar CAD we are looking for that 132 test tested back into the high volume mode here on the daily price sorry on the daily scale got some bullish reversal patterns so any move through this trend line resistance in the pivot here 129 40s long targeting that test of 132 on the upside which is our equality objective Ozzie starting to feel some pressure here with the souring we've seen in global risk sentiment so I'm looking for any move through 68 30s I want to engage on the short side and I'm targeting 66 40s which is a big quality objective versus the swing structure that we have in place from the 76 60s Kiwi also we care so close through the prios to my mind opens a test of the 60 handle on the downside 60 13 is an equal objective versus this swing structure here in the breakout from the triangle so that's the downside target there we do have a quality objective 61 26 but bearing mind the position that the dollar's in and some of these other commodities I think we've traded a little bit lower there so I'm looking for a test of the 60 figure oil sorry goals breaking down as as we talked about last week so any move now through 1780 gives us that downside objective of 1670 which is the big quality objective and really the base of this bigger trading range that we've been in over the past few years so from there I'll be watching the bullish reversal patterns there are some big cycles 60 and 90 year GAN cycles that come into play in August with respect to gold and the gold miners so pay pay close attention to where we we trade in August and gold I think there's an opportunity for a significant move potentially to the upside once we complete this corrective move silver breaking down now and a daily close through that 2042 level gives us 1848 as the downside objective for the major corrective swing to complete and then we'll see from there if I'm going to step in and again if we get that reversal in gold that should take silver with it and we'll be looking for a sign on some of these pressure metals and weakness in the dollar to help drive that let's check in with these cryptos having further weakness taking out the briefly overnight taking out 19 000 to the downside my target is into the equality objective 12 000 it's the area where I'm going to pay very close attention to Bitcoin alternatively if we can take out this trend line resistance back through 24 700 that could suggest that we've seen a decent tradeable low in place and we look for a move into the high volume mode 29 700 but for now nothing can be to do at the moment I'm just watching for this 12 000 tests to to set up similarly with ether we are looking for 851 so close this week through the thousand level I would play tactically short looking for that test of 851 to complete this major corrective cycle versus the swing structure that we have in place here in the 35 80s swing high let's just finish up here with copper copper is coming into the corrective target zone that I talked about 3.5 865 3.5 24 hours the area from there I'm going to be watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side looking for a move then into trend channel resistance in the high volume mode 4.4 3 700 so that's the whistle stop tour so to speak of the markets that I'm tracking really pay close attention to this dollar price action into the London fix today if we can spike that 106 and get a reversal and I think we have decent some decent trading opportunities decent risk reward there for a pullback to to develop in terms of the dollar and some of these fx majors that's at some decent levels as well and pay close attention to that Russell when it tags that equality objective that could be that could be the catalyst to see a turnaround in terms of some of these equity indexes but line in the sense that it's going to be 35 50 35 60 in terms of the s&p in the s&p's and if we break through there then we know we've got 36 20 is the next downside target ahead of 3500 so that's those are the marks I'm tracking are there any questions or would anyone like me to take a look at chart and cover them just type it into the chat I'll I'll also post some links for the s&p 500 strategy group you just simply request access on facebook and I'll add you to that I'll also give you the tip mill trading view link so you can follow these trade ideas through the daily videos that I post there and I will leave you with my email address for those who want to follow up any questions you want to reach out to me on email my you can reach me at patrick.money at tickmillpartners.com if you don't have any questions if you type an n in the chat box so I know I've done a reasonable job of explaining the views that I have at the moment on the markets remember it month end coming in 430 today like you see some volatility sort of your impositions tighten up some stops lock-in profits don't get they get spooked with some short-term volatility okay I can't see any other questions coming through so I'm going to wrap this session up here as always traders plan the trades trade the plan the most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much