 Welcome traders to this week's live trading analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. We're getting started here in just about 30 seconds. Just before I get going, just want to do a quick audio and visual check if you can hear me and you can see my screen. If you could just type Y in the chat box so that I know we're good to get going. Y in the chat box if you can hear me and you can see my screen please. Okay, that's 2pm UK time and we are going to get going here. All we jump into today's discussion. Just want to take a minute to review the disclaimer. Most importantly, with respect to today's presentation is the part here with respect to the views that I express are solely mine. I'm not indicative of or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe limited. Those that are here for the first time a brief introduction to myself. And as I said my name is Patrick memory and after I graduated from King's College London I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues went on to successfully co-found an exit a consulting startup focused on C suite executive search for technology business. Having a front row seat the dot com bubble witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market sometimes quite literally overnight I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands I started day trading day trading 500 or probably more appropriately day gambling after some early beginners luck I racked up some pretty solid gains, however, as is often the case my beginners luck ran out and as the market phase change I began to average down into what would become losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure financial hit say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences and understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market so I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record, working with my mentor for periods of 18 months to two years it was a time during which I had to not just my technical game in terms of researching developing sense we back and forward testing strategies that crucially suits my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. Importantly during the period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game, and probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial games to becoming purely process oriented. So what does that actually mean well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Sometimes in the face of negative feedback from the market in the form of losing trades, but once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading, being a numbers game in which we're simply playing the probabilities, you really lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades or. And so I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or a small string of trades my focus on the next 100 trades, because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable manual returns since 2008 2013. I'm currently managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've mentored hundreds of private traders all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. I run management and mentoring and engaged in some other market orientated projects I am a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill, providing an in depth daily market outlook in which I break down, fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups for two to three markets that I'm actively tracking. I also run tick mills rapidly expanding the many strategy group where I provide a daily specific trade plan with intraday trade updates since its inception in April I delivered over 1100 points in profits. Okay, so that gives you a flavor of where it is I'm coming from with respect to the other tick mill the mini strategy group we are actually offering a trial. But what happened there, lost that link bear with me guys. Okay, I'll have to. Let me see if I can get a link from another age here with me. Let me do that at the moment. I will, if anyone is interested, post the link at the end of the session. Also with respect to the charts we're going to walk through now if you, if you have any questions, or you want me to take a look at a chart that I don't cover in my presentation. So just wait till the end and I'll open up a Q&A session and give you a chance to ask any questions with respect to any of the charts so we're going to start by looking at the dollar index. So this is month end and quarter end today, and Sissy bank who is context follow a month and rebalancing clothes suggests that there's a large net US dollar buying need, which is basically allowing for hedge rebalancing for portfolio rebalancing. So what I would anticipate today certainly as we head into the 4pm UK time 4pm London fix is we could see a bit of volatility in terms of the dollar and some of these dollar majors but we've traded up into now this projected in terms of extending trend line resistance using the midpoint of the pitchfork here. We've exceeded the equality objective we've taken out the yearly pivot but I'm watching for potential for a pullback here in the dollar, not necessarily going to see a full rise at the moment but what I would anticipate is we get something like this three wave corrected move. Before getting another extension to the upside the reason why I sense we're going to see another high here is because we haven't got any divergence with respect to our momentum studies at this point. What that means is that corrections from these current levels, certainly in three swings can be bought, and then we can target the next leg to the upside. Certainly we'll be thinking about this prior peak over here and it's also coincides with the increase of retracement of the entire decline and this zone is going to be an area where I'll be paying close attention but for now I'm looking for a pullback into test this prior descending trend line resistance as support. So anything into this 93 area would be an opportunity to set long positions looking for that next leg of upside. And then from there, as long as we have some momentum divergence in play. We could see a more meaningful corrective phase develop but for now the dollar due to the fact we don't have any divergence at this point. I'm expecting further upside in the dollar index and obviously then feeds into the euro dollar, the euro dollar traded through its extension target the 100% extension versus a swing structure here from 122 70. So the 1628 was the 100% extension. We also have these prior lows here on 16 handle we traded through the 116. And again just pay close attention to that four o'clock time today as price action could get a little wippy, but ultimately, on the basis that we don't have any divergence here. So the momentum studies is making new lows as as we're making new lows in price, then again similarly to the dollar index what we'd anticipate here is that any any corrective move certainly again thinking in terms of three wave correction into 117 15 we've got descending trend pitchwalk wave pattern will then I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns and looking them for another extension to the downside, likely targeting a move to test that one 1450 area. And then from there, you may see, well we could start the next leg to the upside in terms of the euro, as we are still in a bullish sequence overall, but certainly see a bit of correction here so watching for any pullback in three ways to set short positions, looking for new lows. And ideally we're going to test down here this one 1490 area as as an excellent to the downside, and potentially one 1429, where we have that next extension target sterling check in here. So sterling now has a downside objective here versus this swing structure. Let me just draw this in peace, you can see, exactly what it is I'm talking about. So we have our A, B, and then a C target down here now 133 30. So first attention to how price responds here. Ideally what we'd get is a pullback first into test this prior support zone at 136 as resistance, and then get that extension to the downside with then looking for some momentum divergence to be in play to set long positions from there. Certainly then we can think about a test of the 136 50 to the upside. So looking for a corrected move back into the 136 initially to fail, and then new lows 133 30 is the pivotal quality objective to the downside. And then from there we'll be looking for momentum divergence so new low in price, but no new low in the momentum study would be an opportunity then on the long side. So let's take a look at the dollar yen. There with me that's my dog in the background. And then line resistance, this was sort of trade we had on week or two ago now on the long side here in terms of the dollar and I'm looking for this test of 1230 to find some resistance. But again, in line with that broader dollar dynamic, any pullback at this stage, certainly to this one 1080 would be an opportunity to get it on the long side. Ultimately I look now for an extension up into this 1307, and that's the swing target of this a be see objective. 1307 is going to be the pivotal test. And ideally once we get up into that area will have some momentum divergence in play but for now momentum is just broken above the trend line resistance and so this suggests that any failure at the 1230 to 1250 is going to be a corrected move, and then we should look to re engage on the long side, ultimately looking for a move up to test that 1307. Let's take a look at the Aussie. So we're looking now in the Aussie here whilst we hold us, we get any pullbacks that move into test this 72 handle. So we're looking for failure there. And, and ultimately we're looking for new loads here in the Aussie and what I'd really like to see is this yearly pivot get tested. And then from there we might be able to mount a more meaningful correction in terms of the Aussie so pullbacks into the 72 area 7280 73 area. So we're looking at reversal patterns, set short positions targeting and move down to this 6990, which is the next downside objective for the Aussie. Let's just take a look at the Kiwi as well because that obviously is is under pressure. We have taken, we didn't get the upside break that we were looking for training back through the trend line. And whilst that's in play we look for a retest of the 68 handle, which was the equality objective the A, the C target, which we traded to the PIP last time and then got that really nice bounce. But we found weakness here in line with the broader dollar strength that we're seeing. Now if we take out this 68 level, we will have a new downside target. So looking at then will be this swing measured using these are these areas. So, this is what we earlier wave fanatics will probably refer to as WXY, but I just in terms of these sessions like to keep it nice and simple and we just use the swing measures for these targets. And so we can see here, if we take out the 68 handle in the Kiwi, that gives us a downside objective then at the 65 handle, and we're back into these prior loads here support structure. So what we'll be looking for will be potential to get into test this 68 probably see some profit taking there. So we'll look for three wave corrected moves to fail, and then look for that next lead to the downside to get us into that 65 before we can see a more meaningful reversal in terms of the Kiwi. So much for potential double bottom here that will attract some attention, and then look for a three wave corrected moves to fail, and then we're looking for that extension to the downside to test that 65 handle. So let's take out these these prior loads at the 68. Let's check in with some of these other major markets, let's look at SMP 500. So, we have a, we had a potential corrected low in place here in terms of the SMP let me just remove that for now. We're looking for a fourth wave low to trade to the upside. Now, as I stated last week, ideally what we'd like to see is this next leg of downside complete into the October time window. And then that sets up the end of year rally that we often see so whilst we hold, as we hold 4487. These are our suggested B target. We then have a downside objective. Let's draw this in. So we look for an extension into 42 53, which is the equality objective. Just below there we have a couple of S3 pivots, and these prize so anything into this 42 30 to 42 50 area is where I'll be watching for bullish reversal set long positions. And then we've actually been looking for the market to extend higher and take out these prior highs in in in run up into year end basically into into the whole day season so the alternative scenario with this now is that we do a double correction here. Let me just map that out for you so you can see exactly what I mean. Hold seconds. So if we hold the current swing low, which at this stage looks less likely less probable sorry. It could be then that we run up and make a really deep corrective move here let's just draw this in here. Before getting that next leg of downside. Again, what we're looking for is an equality objective so if this pattern plays out we'll be measuring this swing here. As our downside objective versus that high there if this is the scenario this is the second scenario preferred scenario at this stage is that we take out these lows. And we head to our downside of quality objective, thus is the swing structure that's already in place here. So ideally what we're going to see is loads taken out and then we trade down into that 42 38 downside objective. I can see you've got your hand up if you have if you've got a question just make a note of it and I'm going to open up the Q&A session at the end. That will allow allow everyone to chime in with any questions. Thank you Etienne appreciate your your comments. Yeah, we're looking for 42 38 in terms of the S&P. And obviously that feeds into these other equity markets the NASDAQ here. Was the was the leader in terms of our performance and strength but we're actually seeing this NASDAQ rolling over here. So we're looking for a C wave extension now to the downside and again that's going to bring an opportunity for long positions so ideally something like this plays out and we get into this target zone so 14,538 is the equality objective. And then, just below there we've got that ascending trend line support coming in 40,300 so we look for bullish reversal patterns that set long positions, looking for new all time highs in terms of the NASDAQ. Let's take a look at the Nikkei. Nikkei, we're looking for a test here at 29,097 which is the equality objective versus this swing high at 30,444. And then again, from there, we will be looking for bullish reversal patterns we check back check that trend line resistance that we broke out of. So this is an impulsive move you can see we didn't get any divergence on this high. In cases we didn't get any divergence what's the tradeable information from that well, it suggests that it's highly probable that any pullback here is corrective and we should be on the lookout for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, looking for a breakout to the top size. And then we'll see on that next high, do we get, do we get divergence and if so, then that will be an opportunity to trade for a more meaningful corrective phase but for now, we're looking for long positions in the Nikkei. Checking with some of these metals here. Gold still rolling over. We don't find support at the 1744. So the next area of interest now in terms of this, this pullback in gold here will be any move now into, so if we can get down into this area, we see a bounce we use the trend line here as our resistance point. And then again what we're actually looking for them will be this 1520 target, which is the quality objective versus that 119 high and I'll just draw that infuse you can see exactly what I'm talking about so it's that swing structure there that we're watching. So any initial profit taking that we see into this support zone, what's for pullbacks into the trend line resistance to bearish reversal patterns at short positions, looking then for that test of 1520 as the quality objective crude oil. So we've got that little pullback into the trend line, testing the trend line from above obviously it held and we've extended to the upside, but we want to pay close attention to here in terms of crude though, and this is important. We have a potential double top here, and that comes with momentum divergence. So what we could now see in terms of crude. Let's get this in here. Let's see three wave into here, which reversal pattern to target that fifth wave objective to the upside. But most notably what I would say, let's just change this. Adjust the trend line to there. So this is going to be the key zone for crude. If we hold 6740 6750. Then, again, there's an opportunity there with a bullish reversal pattern such long positions, targeting this 8030 to 80 115 area versus our way for low minimum upside or fifth wave objective is that 127 extension of the fourth wave. So that's the story in crude there. But what I would say, and this is important, if we, if we take out this trend line support on a closing basis, that could be a bit of a concern for crude because, like I say, in terms of tradable information, or, you know, playing the probabilities. This divergence is, is a little bit ominous for crude there so we really want to make sure if we do get this pullback that we see that the bullish reversal patterns before jumping in. I don't suggest just blindly buying or selling trend lines. Dr copper as they say. Following the analysis really from from last week we're looking for extension down into the 3.8552 zone now, and then we could see a more meaningful low in place in terms of copper. We're looking for outside extension, you can see copper, you know trades really has a risk asset, and this, what I do like to see is copper testing this area, as the S&P test sits pullback point so we're looking to these corrections tie up and complete before we get this next potential leg higher in terms of, in terms of risk assets. Let's take a look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin held, just help the support was a little bit shaky there but has held. We, for me to, to reengage this on the long side, I want to see a break of the trend line resistance here on the closing basis. And then we can start to think about the next leg of upside in terms of Bitcoin but really what I, an ideal scenario will be that we trade down into this major trend line support and then we look for the bullish reversal patterns, and we target the top side of the channel here up to 76,700 ether holding its trend channel support as it does so we wait now for a break of trend line resistance as an opportunity then to deploy long positions looking for four six seven eight on the upside with one two seven extension of this, of this consolidation zone. So many other trades have had on recently Singapore dollar. Lovely pullback into the projected pitchfork support area and got in on the long side on a closing break of the trend line there. The trade has moved nicely. We've also had the dollar and we have the, the dollar yuan run up 230 pips on this trade and I think what I ideally what we'd like to see is another. The corrective move here to set the final base I think then for, for the more meaningful extension to the upside, and I'm looking for higher prices for in terms of the dollar one. This one on works, work pretty nicely back to 94 pips of that. It's rolling over a bit a little bit now obviously being weighed by the Aussie itself and the weakness and those cross dynamics are leading to a bit of a weakness now in the Aussie again. We see how these equity markets shake up because the Aussie yen more often than not trades in tandem with these equity markets and so if we are going to see another leg of downside in terms of equities, then what we'd be expecting in the Aussie yen is actually an extension to the downside there would give us target down 7428 on the downside so keep your close eye on how the equity markets trade with respect to how we're looking to play the Aussie yen next. The Aussie CAD has broken its support there so that again that trade didn't get validated we didn't get the bullish reversal patterns that we're looking for last week, and we're starting to roll over a bit there. Another one that's pretty interesting as well as this Kiwi CAD. It's sitting right at a major trend line support so. So what I'm watching for here is looking for bullish reversal patterns in this area, so a key day reversal pattern is is what I'm looking at. Then, then we can think about long positions and certainly targeting a move up into the midpoint of the channel here would be the upside objective. But if we don't get a bullish reversal pattern here, and we get a close below the trend line support and the downside objective becomes the equality versus this swing structure here. So from that low to this high that gives us a move down to 8315 in terms of in terms of the Kiwi CAD. So those are the other position I've had on which to work nicely was this Aussie Kiwi. I talked about this a couple of weeks ago, we have this big quality objective test at the 10320 projected trend channels support. Importantly, we've got that reversal through the trend line resistance, and this one's run out quite nicely. What I've been looking for now with this Aussie Kiwi is an extension like this. Pullbacks, once we test this resistance zone at 10530s, any three wave corrected pullbacks will be another opportunity to get in on the long side here, and certainly thinking about trend line resistance coming in 106. So, that's gives you an overview of some of the key levels I'm watching some of the key opportunities, certainly in terms of trading for me today. What I really like to see is get that London fixed out of the way get this short term volatility in some of these pairs off the table, and then look at redeploying capital after after we get this quarter end as a way. I can open this up for questions. If you have a chart you'd like me to take a look at you can type into the box and I'll take a quick look the chat box there. And let me just get this link for you for the futures group where you can join me. Okay, where I post a trade plan, I give intraday trade updates and alerts and like I say this. This group has has run up over 1000 1100 points since April, and you're more than welcome to join me in there on a daily basis, where like I say I'll share the trade, a daily trade plan with you and intraday alerts. So, any questions. Frida, you have a question. You want to type it into the chat box. Can you show. I don't know what an S 90 crossover is. You asked me this last week and I don't know. It's not a strategy I'm familiar with. Sorry about that. No questions. Equally if you don't have a question if you could type an N in the chat box that's also helpful, as then I know that we're all on the same page and I've done a reasonable job of explaining my perspective on the markets. Okay, I'm going to take the silence as a no for questions. Thanks everyone for joining me this week. Like I say please feel free to join me in the strategy group Julius. Thanks Frida. Do you want to type the question into the chat box Julius. Can you see the link. Let me just see that link there Julius if you click on the link that I just posted the Facebook group there and you can request membership to the group. And we can get that set up for you. Okay, if there aren't any other questions I'm going to wrap this session up here please feel free to join me next week. Hi sorry, my first time in the webinar. Can I download. Yeah, there will be a recording posted tomorrow Leroy. Normally, I post it. I'm doing mid morning lunchtime. So don't worry about that that'll be posted to the tick me off blog and you can also get it on my LinkedIn page. I'll just show that I'll show my LinkedIn with you. So you can, you can follow me on there I post, most of my charts, etc. There we go. Those who want to follow along, like I say I post daily updates there. Okay, thanks very much everyone. I hope you found this session helpful and we'll reconvene at the same time next week. All the best.