 Rwy'n dechrau, mae'n dweud y 6 ddangos. Felly mae'r flwyddyn yn half-seven o'r ystyried yn Llywodraeth, Tyreza Mae, yn ystod yn ymddangos i ddweud. Yn ymgyrch ar ôl, mae'n ddau'r clif yn dweud i'r e-CB mewn cystafell. Mae'n gweithio'r gweithio, mae'n gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio. Mae'n gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio. yn sgwm gyrraedd o'r hanes yn dweud. Roedd gennych eich oesrwynt o'r cyfan ymlaen chi'n yn ei ddweud mwy fydd drws a'r grannol yw ddweud eu ddweud. Felly mae'n rhi'n rhaid i fynd oherwydd eich bod ymlaen diolch yn cofio'r cyfan. Ond fe dda chi ddweud eich cyfan yma, ac mae'r chyfe gynnwys iaeth i ddweud o'r unig o'r cyfrwyddaf i dda'r chyflodd, y dda, y Dax here, y head of the ECB likely to be a bit more subdued, but just coming under a touch of pressure as well the same can be said for the S&P and the NASDAQ which fought off the gap closed to push on before coming back lower. Yesterday we saw the Mexican peso push higher in the early part of the afternoon if I can just circle this here on the idea of Navarro coming out and saying there was going to be a deal reached if you like, but you can see this market gapping lower overnight as they are far from that deal. So one to keep an eye out for today you can see that peso under a series of pressure really from the beginning of the week you can see a bit of a recovery yesterday short lived and then the gap lower as well unfortunately for any Mexican peso traders hopefully you weren't holding a position overnight there as you can see that gap lower quite significant. So if you look obviously at the Euro head of this meeting we're on quite a key level if I just bring over this area from the left hand side the previous high back on the 24th and 27th I'll be keeping a close eye on that this morning whether we can have a decent reaction either way before that meeting I wouldn't be too sure. Yesterday as well one of the bigger movers in the market oil you can see especially if we lower this time frame down from the DOE numbers pushing down to the lowest point of the year those numbers and you can see here if I just transition my chart coming in as a build for everything 6.7 million. More than expected API gave the signal on Tuesday evening that there was going to be a build but not as big as was expected and price did come under a bit of pressure and even late last night where we had a bit of a recovery the S1 previous low the day has acted as a quite good level of resistance there. Just having a look at oil on that longer term chart so in the weekly strategy let me just remove all of these studies you can see we were talking about the importance of this level in general and call it a zone really from the lows that we had back in February and January of this year. We have now had a go at trying to break through to the downside closing below these these key levels so I'll just be keeping an eye especially where we close the week is it going to be an opportunity to get long and we start to see a reversal or is this just the start of a further push down from the top of the year to the low 24 nearly 25% move to the downside. Big push there also yesterday and this was a if I told you looking at this chart with your dollar on the low of well today and yesterday that ADP was the worst number in nine years you would think this chart is upside down that number coming in a lot less than expected 180,000 was expected and a miss of nearly 160 150,000 on that. Took a while it did take a while to push on and this gave the opportunity for people to get in and what a great trade it was around 115 the usual release for that we pushed higher and since then it's just drifted down from the R2 we did have some other figures out. And I suppose as we come into the the ECB meeting I understand that it's under a bit more cautious approach but a good opportunity nonetheless that number you can see here on the trading economics 27,000 when this this figure came out. Piers was was doing some work next door and he came running across and he goes you know this is a bad number this is the the worst for at least 10 years and I got the the chart up put in five years and okay yeah so it's definitely not 10 years going back and you can see well this is the you know the lowest number we've had since 2010 when we had negative readings so really bad number here. And you know you have analysts some analysts over overnight and yesterday suggesting well now you're starting to see the impact of the trade wars and the global slowdown really coming to play here. It would obviously be prudent to you know use this as a guide for the non-farm payrolls which is expected to come in at a similar number so knowing the ADP is missed by so much you know you will have a bad number half priced in. On Friday off that headline but as we know certainly over the last couple of years or so on the non-farm payroll day it's all about the hourly earnings for that just having a look at the fed probability for rate cuts now this was again something that it took me by surprise I was coming back we had a seminar here last night for the students that come in over the summer for the internship program. And I was just doing a bit of research before I was going on to talk and there was an article just posted from the FT not this one that you see on my right but the one I'm going to show you and this was effectively this time yesterday where you've got the probabilities of rate cuts and you can see June you know guess you can call that 10% July between 40% and 50% and then after that ADP reading. We really have now priced in I mean 63% chance 63% chance that there's going to be at least three rate cuts in 2019 I was saying this to Charlie the stage one mentor here as well and I mean he couldn't quite believe that's what the market necessarily priced in and fought itself and I would be surprised myself if we were to have three cuts for now but quite interesting to see just from that ADP number now you have this growing sense of concern for sure that on Wall Street and also you hear that the US economy is facing stronger head wings just as a trade war between America and China is has stalled, has hot it up so non farm payrolls I would usually certainly in the last couple of years have said it's a it's a much about nothing but it could be quite an interesting one you know if we were to have a really bad number where the Fed are going to look to act and just having to look at the countdown the Fed watch tool so for June 28% chance of of a cut as we go into July you've got that I mean it's it's going to happen by the looks of this 72% chance of a rate cut in in July so these figures worth keeping an eye on if you if you haven't used this this tool before it's definitely useful so I just pop that into into the chat just to get an idea of what the the market is is pricing in and and what to expect but you can see just from this chart here on on the financial times just the probability of those three cuts just the way that's really pushed on and and that ADP number being so weak I mean this look at that incredible incredible and it was a shot to the market I mean the one of the biggest shots yesterday was just how long it took for the dollar to weaken I mean here we've got the put this on to well maybe even a minute chart and that's up to scroll back so give me a bit of time so you can see yes we had the push but I mean this initial Algo spiked if you like was only 68 14 ticks and for the worst reading since 2010 you know then we came back lower before pushing on I mean obviously like I said it's a great opportunity would have been a bit confusing at first to have seen it stalled but decent push higher nonetheless eyes on non farm payrolls and if we have a look at the dollar recently over the last well I mean you can argue first you know two first days ago on the on the euro dollar but we've had the dovish comments from power we've had the dollar weakening elsewhere you know affecting gold prices pushing on and on you can see that recovery you know of this this push higher yesterday in gold we did come back lower when we had some dollar strength so you know the market is still susceptible or gold I should say still susceptible to strength of the dollar so you know really surprising maybe if non farm payrolls will come out really good you know a good opportunity to to get short gold but like I was saying we've had these dovish comments from from power and this has led to some weakness definitely in the dollar and the euro dollar has pushed higher in turn which makes this easy be meeting quite interesting so you've got the picture of draggy here and he's ever the professional usually the the press conference is a well I guess pretty boring by you know that's probably what he wants you know doesn't want to give too much away but certainly looking at just doing the research this morning and we sent out a good a good article by an article so research material from from ran a school that they did so that should be in your inbox is of anyone didn't get that do let me know but certainly looking at this this meeting I think it's it's got the opportunity for certainly to get to the downside anyway just due to the fact that the the the euro dollar has pushed higher that we could effectively correct if you like or we've now got quite a bit of room to come lower since the last meeting eurozone growth has improved to 0.4 from that 0.2 so this is obviously a positive being encouraging for the ECB and confirmed its assessment that the recent slowdown does not consist of an outright risk to imminent recessions so okay that's ticked one one positive however on the flip side the inflation numbers for may badly disappointed so the inflation headline to 1.2% year on year in the core worse at 0.8 so quite away away from that 2% goal and by a larger margin then had been anticipated comments on inflation those those forecast will be key it's pretty much bang on priced in that they are going to lower the 2019 forecast for inflation so you hear that I would be I would just brush it under carpet move on what will be interesting is that they are going to lower 2020 as well also what's been quite interesting as well is the the bring this in here the ECB cut percentage so not too long ago we were talking about an interest rate rise in equity market in in Europe at the well they were calling it what what is the the back end of summer so was it going to be August October November when they were looking to rise rates now it's looking like we're actually in July next year we're going to be lowering interest rates so yeah one to to keep an eye on I think the who would want to be a central head of central bank at the moment with obviously the trade talks all going on and or not going on sort of weighing on on policy and making it hard and with draggy of course July August September October November five months before he's headed out it's odds on now that he's not going to raise interest rates in his couple of terms that he has done which is is pretty incredible to say the least but that those inflation forecast will be certainly one to to keep a close eye on at 1245 today UK time and then any comments on that 130 speaking of trade for the ECB obviously talks between US and China broken down as we know trade war has been intensifying weighed on stocks we have had a slight recovery of course helped by power but these these comments on on trade will be interesting especially as we just overnight had the the Mexican sort of gap lower on the idea that they're not going to be spart and there's no deal right there for now and when draggy you know it said risks are moving to the downside regarding the trade he's also list protectionism so this is this is the word for now protectionism and we want to a dictionary definition I've got one right here for you the theory of practice of shielding a country's domestic industries from foreign competition by taxing import so it's all about this now what is the situation between the US and Europe the the delay on on tariffs was seen as a positive will be it briefly for the markets we saw rally in the DAC we saw rally in the Euro only to come back down partly that day but then over the coming days as well so the comments based on on what's going on between the US and Europe will will obviously be quite key and the US has kept its fret to hit the EU with levies on cars and car parts so yeah it's certainly an interesting one the ECB also has pledged to keep interest rates current or lower levels until at least the end of 2019 so that really has pushed on you know they this is now you know the the hiking in autumn is of course not priced in whatsoever and now it looks like the markets are expecting by July next year a rate cut free rate cuts now expected in the US pretty unbelievable you know new age economics if you like where these rates are just so low and the markets can't seem to deal with them so those new forecast I mentioned obviously at 12.30 or 1.30 I said you have the opening statement from from dragon last few ones have been pretty boring also worth noting the last few meetings we've either gone higher to come back lower in the press conference on Golanola to come back to pretty much exactly where we were so the idea that maybe there's going to be a long lasting effect from this press conference or meeting I would say it is slim but certainly from an opportunity it could be a good one to the downside just considering how we have recovered and the US at the moment is a seems a much more attractive place for an investor than certainly Europe. So those inflation forecasts as mentioned will be important to keep an eye on and if they were to change that well downgrade the 2009-19 outlook expected at the 2021 and if they're pessimistic on that the euro certainly will have a bit more more room to fall if you like elsewhere in markets. Obviously we've well we had a couple of comments overnight Chinese President Xi said the economy is improving and that China has ample room to use policies to deal with risks. Menunchkin US Treasury will meet PBOC Governor Yi Yang at the G20 Finance meeting in Japan so these comments slightly more positive for stocks and my view on US equities and inequities in general is I think we do continue to push higher in the short term. I don't necessarily think the the push to all-time highs is again ready just yet but maybe the next week or so we might just have seen a shorter term bottom. We'll obviously remain to see how that goes as well but that's just my my personal view on that of the interest see what you guys think. Have we seen the the bottom short term bottom for stocks or have we you know or have we seen the bottom and we're going back up to the highs. Trump was was in Ireland yesterday as well I'm sure anyone on Twitter was was enjoying those comments when he was starting talking about a border wall between Ireland and Northern Ireland in typical Trump fashion going there and he was saying how everything's going to be OK for you guys as well to Ireland. He is now off to France for the 75th anniversary of D-day landings. I think ultimately from the meeting with Ireland more questions that were there than answers. Also the I mentioned at the beginning Theresa May has one day left before standing down and standing off to overseeing that conservative leadership. Michael Gove yesterday said that he could live with another short delay to the October 31st deadline. Again another question what's I've just seen a question there from Andy wonder what colour tie a draggy will wear today. Well these are the important questions but certainly with the October 31st deadline. You know who thinks and let me know in the in the chat why or and yes or no who thinks we will have left Europe deal or no deal by 31st of October. The comments overnight from from Gove stating that he is not to bothered if you like by a continuation past that. The rules going forward we briefly touched upon this yesterday from a good tweet from Adam Linton at Ranscork about the leadership race. The rules here are by candidates need to be nominated by eight members of Parliament a higher bar than previously. Nominations open and close June the 10th so expect a lot of movement over the weekend names in the hat people back in this person people back in that person. Obviously Boris is now back to even money maybe even bit below now so you've got to be slightly careful about maybe looking to get too short the pound if it does look like he's going to be favourite for now as a lot of that is priced in. I would only start looking to go heavy short the pound if he steps up his rhetoric on no deal. Conservative lawmakers then vote in a series of secret ballots to knock out the least popular candidates. Sometimes candidates withdraw themselves that will happen. I think you know to save a bit of pride people might just remove themselves ahead of that the ballots then continue until the short list of two emerges for my better money. I think that's going to be gove and I think that's going to be Boris. I think at the time when we were when when Theresa May resigned I think you know gove looked good money at 10 to one he's now down to fives. Understanding Boris is still the favourite despite the the court order. The final pair then take part in hustling around the country from June the 22nd. A Conservative party's estimated 160,000 members mail in their votes. The process wraps up week of July the 22nd. We know there's recess in August we know August is a quiet month so you know are they really going to get anything done. It gives them maybe September to do stuff and then next thing you know it's October and Europe are going to change their mind and well maybe we're just about to see just how. I'm not going to say good Theresa May did but how hard it was for her to do anything. May obviously remains Prime Minister until that successor is chosen. It's quite interesting as well. It's just having a look down according to a poll or research I say 64 of card carrying Tory members are men 40% are over the age of 65. Significantly 86% regarding the leaving the EU is the most important issue facing the country according to the December analysts. So I mean this is quite old and perhaps not worth looking too far into it. But the one thing I found quite interesting two thirds of Conservative members back a no deal exit. Boris has been leading this race for the main most part of it. Gove as well as said previously he likes the idea of this no deal which brings us back on to the pound and in my opinion despite you know if we have a look certainly at the recent trend of May the top of the May here 132. You know we have come down a fair whack and that is you know the uncertainty that is perhaps Boris as well. I do think if he was to step up that rhetoric of the no deal and be very bullish and hawkish in that talk then we do have have a bit more room to come down and unfortunately and you know I'm a longer term pound bull if you like. I think we could get down to 122 quite sharpish. But for now those those trend lines we've talked about in previous times in the previous low from you know the 2017s have held pretty pretty good. And if anything that's just in the range right? A weekly range going back from 17 September last year to the double bottom now and the double top as well. So from here technically we go higher hopefully as I'm off holiday tomorrow. But any questions as usual guys please do let me know just having a quick look at the calendar and just for the guys watching this later on. One, two, three, four. The majority of people were saying we will not get a deal done by 31st of October and I think that resembles as well a bit of the market pricing in that and the uncertainty which markets obviously hate. Just going back to the calendar having a look here we have the GDP revised figures from Europe not expecting in any way a reaction from that. One because it's revisions two because you have the ECB at 1245 press conference 130 as well. Weekly initial jobless claims also at the same time as the press conference very rarely is going to move the market anyway. But obviously focus is going to be on Draghi's opening statements from then as we go into the back end of the afternoon or the back end of the morning. We've got Carney speaking obviously Draghi as we mentioned 130, Kaplan the non-voter 140 before Feds Williams at six o'clock. There's been some decent opportunities in the market following Fed comments so just be close watching those times and any positions that you do have as it could of course be to the detriment to not have that risk management in place. But I hope you'll have a good trading day will obviously be on the mic closer to the ECB but I hope you'll have a good day ahead.