 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger, Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Morning on this Thursday, the 28th of June. I just wanted to show you something before we start. There has to be a future that's down 15 at 4,403. The cash is down at 4,364, down 14. All right. What we're really looking at here was a fascinating session yesterday. Look at the importance of this 200-period moving average right here, little with the dots. Look how it was in resistance at this peak at 3 a.m. in the morning, back on the, this is the 23rd. And then it pulled back, pulled back, made a cup formation, couldn't get back to that 200-period moving average. This started brand new with two little doji candles, and when it started, a brand new ABC failed a little bit at the 200-period moving average. But this time it spent seven sessions trying to break out, which it finally did. Gave a chapter of instant restart, and then continued higher sequentially peak EFG. What am I looking at? I'm looking at the one minute, sorry, the 10-minute E-mini contract, the S&P. And then what happened is gave a little doji candle right here side at about 2 o'clock that it was starting to stall, but it started one flourish going almost to the 4 o'clock high. So I always talk about two-click sessions. If one was able to get the pullback and not be stopped out, that was the low of 43, 74.50 at the 10-20, remember 10-20, I always say starts the next sequence of the daily quartet or quintile of the different segments. If you survive that, you are able just to walk the nine-period moving average. In fact, you're going to stay there right up until you were taken out at 450, that was 450 last night, eastern time, at about 44.15. I mean, not bad, right? This is just walking the nine-period moving average. And this particular is in 43.80 was a low. So it doesn't sound like all that much, but believe me, when you're in it, it feels really, it feels like, wow, I know exactly where my cushion is. I know where the limits are, where it's starting to falter using the MACD and the Stochastic. Everything's fantastic, but there's one technical indicator that I use that is able to keep you not every time, but a lot of times, it just keeps you in that trade a lot longer than your emotions and anything else could do. So anyway, I just wanted to mention that. And then I was thinking, wouldn't that be a great opportunity right there to actually switch to the short position? I never did anything like that. I was just looking at it. It was just, I've just had a slew of things that I've had to get done. So being limited in that sense. But then we went sideways looking the long rectangle formation which says, if you break out above it, be careful because if you take out halfway of the long rectangle formation support, you're going to break the level of the rectangle low and probably go much lower before trying to bounce back in. And that's where the real test says, ah, we don't want you back here. Goodbye, goodbye. Or hey, we missed you. Stay around a little while. And this particular instance is being repelled and what's really important at this particular time being hit four out of 10 minute bars in a row. That's 40 minutes back to the 200 period moving average. So you just, you set these things up and then you try to use them as guidelines. It's like the markers on the road. You know, yes, yellow light, green light, red light, yield, whatever it is. So these are the markers. And at this particular point, there's a really struggling down 15.25. I don't want to go on with that. Let me just move on to the next thing, which will be looking at the TLT. So for quite some time, in fact, I'm not going to say quite some time. I'm going to say for over a year, I've been talking about bonds are telling me and yields are telling me that they are just stuck in a range, that they are not the issue at this, at this particular time, meaning every time I said it at this particular time and I'm saying it again at this particular time, I don't think yields are the issue. However, this is the I shares 20 year treasury bond ETF. Big of this weekly chart, how that pink nine period moving average has just been an incredible barrier for months. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven months. It might break on the upside in two months, but it never closed above. But look what it's doing is also sorry to make a little bit higher highs, lower highs, higher lows, and making lower highs and higher lows. All right. And the bank is really close to finally turning up. It hasn't done that yet. So I'm not ignoring the fact that at this particular stage, this H pattern that goes to an M pattern, and with a much smaller one, I want you to see if all of a sudden we either take out the 99 to 98 key support area in the TLT, or if there's a sudden move above the rectangle horizontal line, which says suddenly you're trading at the 105 area, 105, maybe even back to 106. I don't know. All I can say is that for a long time we've been looking at sideways action in yields. So I'm eliminating that as one source. Looking at the XLF, this is the financials. It looks almost like the same thing. Dreaded H, lowercase H goes to a lowercase M. You could even make this just a very large H. I like to split them in two sometimes and then just say, okay, really just one big H pattern. Making high highs and higher lows. That's good. That's the financials. But wow, what a lousy chart. A big gap down from the 200-period moving average in the daily at peak F. Oops, I forgot to put down an error. It's in a sell mode right now. And as we speak, the day is young. But as we speak, that S has appeared, which says that we might see a sell signal upgrade to a sell mode as the nine-period crosses negatively. And we're going to see that very soon. Okay. I want to do KRE. KRE is the regionals. Also, not a very good chart pattern. Actually, it was looking a little bit better than the XLF as we were long for a short while. A tiny little profit got out of it and said, ah, not for us, not yet. But look at this weekly chart. And look at the monthly chart. There's a lot going on. And at this particular time, the lot going on is telling me that in a sense, what we've got to be looking at here is how's the rotation going? Well, Pave is the ETF that is covers infrastructure and developments, infrastructure and developments, and we're making possible PEE. Right here. It's been fantastic. Look at this. I've got a leg seen because we haven't taken out the starting point of the up move, which was way down the 22 area. This could become a G. In fact, I need to do it because that's my rule of thumb is that if you haven't taken out the left side low, it could keep active a wave count that just says go sequentially. Don't get carried away. Just make it as easy as possible, but consider that there could be a G that was at previous peak F at 30.30 back on the week of March the third of this year. At 30, it pulls back to the 26s and now it's trading at 30.82 pennies from an all-time high. I mean, that's really quite remarkable, right? Okay. Home builders who spoke about this yesterday, cold brothers, still another high. Unbelievable. And you're all-time high. And that speaks to the shortage. It speaks to my group that says, hey, we were fortunate enough to buy a real estate at very, very, very much lower prices. Now, where do we move if we sell? I mean, what do we do? I'll be back in a moment. We'll talk about it down 137. Tigers and Tigresses. Get ready for our annual 4th of July Tiger Dollar sale. From now until July 7th, you can receive a 20, 30, or even a 40% bonus when you purchase Tiger Dollars. Tiger Dollars are automatically applied to your account and can be used for all subscriptions and purchases. Don't wait. This sale ends July 7th. Visit TFNN.com today to purchase Tiger Dollars and receive a 20, 30, or even a 40% bonus. As an added bonus, every order comes with a special TFNN mug. Happy 4th, Tigers. TFNN Educating Investors. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. 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Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com. Educating investors. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities & Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Toll Free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. I'll go on to all the other indices in a moment, but I want to get to a couple of questions so I don't run out of time. A, trough A, trough B, trough C, trough T, nice balance. So we're looking at Arrowhead Pharma in the biotech area. 36.52, up 43. Let's see what it says here. Abazzle, please review ARWR. They've been making news lately and in my opinion have an imminent partnership announcement coming within days. On the master... D-U-X-4. Sock is right at the key level where if or when it breaks over 36.80. Why isn't that interesting? I was not even looking at the price. I was just looking at the pattern. I'm shocked to see... A sneeze. Shocked to see that price is actually 36. It looked to me like it had the characteristics of a teenager. And stock is right at the key level. If and when it breaks over 36.80 area, I see 42.50 test. Then likely the 50s and of course Dan and Dan does really good work looking at biotechs and other things, but especially biotechs. Yeah, looking out, I would just say that there's a potential cup formation in the monthly chart and that the high that I'd be looking at is really imminent in terms of a rally off this little triple top that we're seeing right now. If it can break 30... It's not there that I want to look at. It's this one here. If it can break 38. Yes, I think you're right. 30... Okay, 38. Oh, is that it? Oh, I'm moving this around. That's what it is. I didn't realize. 38.55. 38.55. In between. Now, in other words, this long wick right here, if we can start to trade for about 90 minutes, any session in the next couple of weeks, any session, if we can trade at 37.55 and hold that steady for about 90 minutes, I'd prefer over 220-minute bars. But anyway, 90 minutes to 120 minutes, I think there's a chance it could have a sudden spike up to the high of the 36.55 area. So that's the big thing. And here we are at 36.74 the high today, trading up 48 cents to 36.56. Now, the reason why I make that key is because you know what I normally do, I grab the outer ends and I say, hey, I'm bumping up against the Grand Canyon left side right there. And I'm just saying that looks to me like a potential lopsided gravy cup. But look, it's made within that, it's made a U that goes to a W like the lowercase h goes to a lowercase m. This is the U that goes to the y, that goes to a little double W pattern. So that's really important as far as I can tell because I've seen for the first two sessions in a while, that's today and because it happened yesterday, I can talk about it. The 9-period moving average has moved over the green. The mag D is just barely, it's really unchanged. It's fractionally higher. The stochastic is very weak at 47. On-balance volume is rounding, but really not doing very much. So it's the power of the push above this 200-period moving average which has been a magnet. That's the reason, another reason, I shouldn't say that's the reason, I didn't see that until now. But that's another reason to say that you can hold at 33, above 33.55, at least part of a day. Then there's a real, look, all of that resistance is gone and then you go to the next level and it's just a wick that went up there. So I like what you're talking about, but the magnet of the 200-period moving average of 35.16 cannot be ignored. Look how it's dragged the price back every single time it's gotten above. It's dragged it back to test at least the line-period exponential moving average. I like your reasoning. And yeah, I'm going to say something else which says that I probably could have taken 30 seconds instead of blab, blab, blabbing for what, three, four, five minutes. It's a biotech stock. If there is any news that's even remotely positive, or that could be read as being positive, you'll get that spike. You'll get that gap up. And then what this does, we've seen this in this stock so many times, it gaps, gaps, gaps sometimes, and then it gives it almost all back. But this one, it hasn't. That gap from the 24th of April, high of 31.19 to the next day screams up to a low of 33.44. This is the gap that nearest we've gotten to is 32 something, 32.30 on the 30th of May. I love to look at these patterns and say, what is the character? What is it telling me? What is it telling me two things? One is, forget about all this talk about upside, downside. It's going to move if there's anything that's remotely positive because it's got a very strong base in the 34s. That's number one. Number two, and make it as simple as possible, the weekly charted that huge move up gave back about 50%, but for four weeks now, it's been steadily trying to break above and hold the nine-period moving average as key support. It's walking the nine EMA and the black 14-period moving average of 34.34. I've got to be careful that O could turn out to be an 8. It's a 3. Oh, no, it's 34.66. 34.66. So I like it. Yeah, I think it's doing very well. And if by tomorrow it's really important to us, no, if at Friday's close, it's had some kind of a pullback, but it ignored the pullback and it went to higher highs today and a higher high tomorrow, that's the kind of action you want. So I'm pleased I looked at this because there are a number of stocks that have almost the same pattern, but the veracity, the strength, I'm going to write this down, ARWR at 36.02 over 30... Was that 37.55? What did I say? Yeah, over 37. Over 37.55. Boom. Just waiting to know. Okay, so we've done that well. Our next question is, let me just go through this very slowly. Okay. Oh, yeah, the partnership news. Okay, very good. Okay, so I like what I'm seeing in terms of the rotation and the fact that the S&P, now I can go through everything like INDU. Okay, I've got a couple of questions I'm going to get to them. I'll write them down. Okay, what was that? HYG. Yep, I'll look at that for GT. Another one was Apple. Yep, I'll have a look at Apple. Amazon. What was the other one? Oh, Costco, very good. Okay, there we go. So the dials are 143. The nine-period moving average is getting closer and closer to turning negative. I think it's going to turn negative, but you don't underestimate the strength of that nine if it's holding green. When it turns pink, watch out. But the weekly chart is saying, what are you worrying about? Well, we'll see. S&P, so I made this very clear. A close below 33,590 would say, uh-oh, we're going to go down. It doesn't tell you how deep we're talking about that in a moment. The S&P, the close trading right now, down nine, the close below, I'd have to say 43 is the cash. Below 43,25, there's going to be quite a bit of a close. QQQs, any close next week while it's holding very nicely. I'll be back. Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago, and the student has now become the master. 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For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Hi folks, I can't even remember where I was. Let me just go through what I had written down. So, let me just do this. H-Y-G, H-Y-G, J-N-K's, where I usually look at, ah, I used to have it totally notated for years and years and years. This is the junk bonds. Look at this, A, P, B. It makes a C. It could almost be a C1, C2. So, it goes from, this is J-N-K's symbol and what is the exact title? It's called Bloomberg, Bloomberg High-Nil Bond. So, it makes a low back in March of 2020 at 83.18. Let me just type that in right here. 83, oops, 83.13. And it makes a peak A. I don't want to go through it now. It just takes a little too much time. It makes a peak C and I'm correct. It just missed it. So, it's a C1, C2 right here and then a drop sharp. I know that you asked me about H-Y-G, but they both do the same thing. That's high grade. What is that? H-Y-G is called, this is the iShares, iBox, dollar, high yield, core, bond, ETF save. I don't know what it is. I've got this tiny little print here. Well, maybe it's my eyes. J-N-K. So yeah, it makes this double top and it comes back down. You remember 83.13 and it goes all the way to, oh, I guess I'm going to have to do this. And it goes all the way to, right there. It goes to 110.10, then 110.05 and then 110.14. No, I remember this now. It's come back to me. I thought it was a double top and when I went through it, that it was a peak C and then it was a peak D. You're always looking for D, the fourth highest peak in the Chapmanian methodology. That's when other things can happen and lo and behold, we made a top and it plunged and it came all the way down to the 86, 87 area. Wow. I mean it said made a top at 110. 110.14. Isn't that something? 110.14. I mean these are bonds. It's like a stock. Acting like a stock. And then it plunged and it came down to the 86 area. It's above the left side low. Now what's really important, this is a peak A. So all I can say is that as I look at this right now, it's a real struggle for the junk bonds to get any traction to the upside. They get traction for a little while. It did for the weekly chart. That was quite impressive. I remember this move. I remember it going to a peak D or an E. Let me just A. Is that the low yet? We go back enough to see that you've got the perfect low. C. And when you're doing it in retrospect, there's no excuse for missing it. Because you've got it there in front. If you have to look at tomorrow's action or the next minute's action, that's different. But this is already fixed in. Limestone. Here we go. And we're pulling back. Made the H pattern now. It's a lowercase H. It's almost like a right shoulder. If you're holding steady, if you want, you could just say, you know what? This has been chapped between that level and that level for look how long. It's just stuck in the range. All I can say is it made a peak A, B, C, D, E in the daily chart. It's pulling back, but it's not failing. And the technicals are kind of sporadically good and sporadically bad. But I just think it's stuck in the range. So that's why I've said that earlier on, and what's important to this is I wanted to do it because I wanted to put it together with something like the tall brothers. So the question is for a lot, I don't mean a lot, just mean like in your neighborhood, the 10 or 15 people. I suspect, I mean, Newton, Massachusetts, this is called the Garden State or Garden Town and Garden City or something. All I can say is that I could name just like this. I don't necessarily have to be great friends or anything. I just know these people. I've spoken to at least 30 people in the last year in this area and a majority of them have said, you know, we've for a long time, we've just been the two of us. We would like to go to something that is just simpler for us, but to sell our house at this price, even though it's way above what we originally paid for it, we're just going to put that money right into something smaller with a lot less that we have now. Yes, it will be simpler and that's what we have to think of, but we might even have to pay money to do that with the way prices are these days for maybe a three bedroom or two bedroom with a study so you can have your family over. So this is, that's the reason why the houses haven't been turning over and I won't turn over until there's a decent alternative. Somebody came up with something that said, hey, I'm going to give you a view. I'm going to give you at least three bedrooms, maybe even some people would run three bedrooms and a study. Not every, you wouldn't have that big garden that you had, you wouldn't have all the stuff, you wouldn't have the shoveling, you wouldn't have the roof or the repair of the air conditioner unit, the whole air conditioner unit because everyone's in a while. It's just a different thing all together but it's a different mentality. So, but the basic is that you're going to take what you've got and you're going to buy something for not that much less than what you're going to get for the much appreciated house and that's what I think is the issue and there isn't that much on the market. And when it is on the market it gets sinking quite quickly. So I think Toll Brothers, we're looking at at an all-time high as we speak kind of reflects, I think Toll Brothers is the higher end, I might be wrong Tom will be able to speak much more to that if he ever gets to talk about what Toll Brothers does I think periodically does but I believe we're looking at a home builder that does more the higher end and it's at an all-time high. You know, that's reflecting a bunch of things, I don't want to go into that right now at a limited time. So yes, Toll Brothers acting very well and then obviously in this category is helping the HEX which is the iShares, this is the oh, I must close that out there are. That is the Philadelphia Housing Index right there Housing Sector Index gone to a Leg C with the Chapman Wave overlapping wave and this should in the monthly chart go to a Leg D in 2023 isn't that, and here's the Leg D in the Daily, Leg G-B in the weekly it is by I my I says oh this looks so it's almost vertical, oh but wait a minute a vertical stock can continue going vertical number one, number two is the MACD is good, the stochastic is flat at 92% the relative strength is at a high right here even higher than it was back in May where it was doing so well, so all the technicals are confirming the 9 is way above the 40, so for us to get a smash the reason why I didn't want to go overboard to look at the short side at all and we are still short the S&P, but we're making this stuff really tight we're looking at strength in course cyclical, this is housing is cyclical, alright so I want you to get that out of the way next question was, oh what kind of handwriting is that how am I supposed to see what you just wrote um oh Costco trading right I can have can tell me okay there is Costco C-O-S-T wow look at that a nice recovery high trading at 5.30 up 26 this is a leg E, I'm calling it for now leg E in the weekly I'll be back that was down 115 S&P's unchanged the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report the gold report the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX, The Dollar, Bonds the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? 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one minute chart look it may load about 40 just under 4400 in the one minute chart the S&P e-mini it goes to peak A peak B look green 9-period moving out holes, holes, holes and then you get two bars with parallel highs and then you get another two bars with parallel highs and what I like to do is to say okay I want to be ahead of the game I'm calling one of these a phantom peak peak C and then I change the color or you can make it a small C just to whatever you make a note in your mind this is not a real peak C it's a phantom peak C because it's trading 25 cent increments and then you get to your D so I'm already saying okay I've raised actually I have no position right now I'm raising the stop I'm taking something off because if I'm waiting for that peak C to come and the magnities started to turn down still very good but the on balance volume gave you a vicious turn around so the casics now 86% still all very good but I'm just being ready that this could turn down but wait a minute the 100 this is the 10 minute chart started a brand new break to the upside I have no choice now to put this as an up arrow and say that we're in leg B this should pull back and then somehow it doesn't tell you how high but it should go to a higher high still legs C and D in the 10 minute chart because this is a buy mode with a stochastic at 86% in the 10 minute chart and they and the 9-speed moving cross crossing positive so we'll see what happens this one I'm expecting a bit of a pull back for the one minute chart watching that 10 alright let's get out of this see if we can apply the same techniques here Costco holding very well made a U shaped pattern double top hasn't closed above the high that was made right here on the doji candle of the 15th the doji is like a plus sign just a very small can that could have long legs but it's really opens and closes at the same price and now what we're looking at is at 531 26 let me put the glasses on and see if there's any difference at all uh and let's see what that says 5 31.26 it does make a difference oh okay good now I know I can so greater than again I don't wait too often but I do wear them they back to where my eyes were when I was 15 years old but lots happened since then I would say and look here it is at 530.75 this is so important to me to see so well look at the steady move up in the weekly chart leg E but under the previous major high of that was back in the week of the second of January of 2022 542.58 and wait a minute look at this what have we got here we've got um I wanted to put it together to say if you look at target they're different companies the target's got exactly the opposite pattern it's made set of the cup formation this has got that lower case H that goes to a lower case M breaks the low and it's pulled back really sharp 268 was the November 2021 high and here we are the 132 area so it's really you've got to be so selective here even in the um look NVIDIA NVIDIA's holding really well it was down 17 points at some point today now it's down 3 at 415.66 that goes for advanced micro devices holding steady but none of them are now in the in the this is the S&P now this is SMH semiconductor ETF what we're looking at is micron which is a really good company having a good day today but this is not a great little peak F and gaps down hasn't ever filled the gap to go to Morrill Vell another very good company in that sector sideways action holding very well so it's all selective look at this general electric very nice move today that goes together with the cyclicals with pave with the builders what's BLD are doing builder all time high as we speak it went to 135.99 why didn't it give me a round number high 134.13 right now 65 cents this is builders first resources Inc building materials manufacture components man all time high monthly this is what a diverse bifurcators not the way it's really trifurcated because there's so many different sectors here okay here's the other thing I wanted to look at question came Amazon here we go Amazon almost at a new recovery high up $1.93 at 131.15 legs C in the weekly chart and that's what I'm saying that's one of the reasons I don't want to get overly bearish but selectively we can say there's a chance that we are looking at a rotation this is some of the sectors actually some of the sectors that we're doing I wonder what this is doing what's that start oh AI haven't looked at that for a day or so ah AI is having a very nice move up today 243.35 79 this is C3.ai Inc obviously in the AI area 183.90 was the opening opening was 100 goes to 183.90 in December of 2020 that same month and then it has a little bit of a tumble a little tumble takes it down to what was the low right there thing was that ah here we go down to 10.16 no I think we're even lower than that this must have been lower than that surely no 10.16 ah can be slow yeah 10.16 then we put that down so 10.16 is up 300% or more ah and it's in that area it's spectacular move up to the 48 maybe 49 area pull back sharply held the 50 period moving average and now it's trying to go from pink 9 period moving average negative to maybe turn up again I don't know are the AI stocks going to be coming back ah we'll see this is what I'm saying that we've got to be very selective ah within that context when I say oh hack I want to look at hack which is the cyber security ETF prime cyber security ETF nice move up today made a peak F base is going to be a head and shoulders pattern I'm not sure but I am expecting that in the Dow that we have a balance and at some point we make this H pattern that's what I'm saying this is my if I'm looking at the charts this is the pattern that I would anticipate will unfold if the high that was made in 34,000 488 had a thousand point a decline then it bounced a little bit yesterday if that weakness that I'm seeing in the 9 period moving average was just strong right now but the weakness that I've seen because it's coming down together with the moving average if that crosses negatively that's the pattern I'm looking at we can have a leg B and then I'm going to look at this completely different I'm going to say hey that's good and that's the reason why we kept our call long position from October we've been at trading positions in between up and down I didn't want to go short the Dow um but we've chosen the S&P and we might be taken out in that S&P tight stop we'll see let the market tell me okay the other thing we're looking at here was down oh jet blue anybody trying to get somewhere lately it's unbelievable prices as soon as you're going to this one weekend are like 40% higher than they were just recently jet blue up 6 cents at 8.2 tell me this isn't a good sign jet blue airline very nice I'll be back until 4th of July Tiger Dollar sale from now until July 7th you can receive a 20, 30 or even a 40% bonus when you purchase Tiger dollars Tiger dollars are automatically applied to your account and can be used for all 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