 Hi everyone, Basil Chapman sitting in for Tom O'Brien and we're looking at on this Wednesday, the 16th of March, where the Fed has already had the Fed speak. There are a whole bunch of things that we're going to look at. I'm going to start off right now and just go straight to the TLT, which is the bonds. The bonds slumped to 130.32 today. It was at 155.12 in December. This looks like a stock. In fact, if you look at this chart right here, there are so many stocks that look with this double top and then a failure and then the cup formation gives a one-to-one to the downside. There are just so many stocks that have done that. This looks like a stock, but it's not. It's bonds. The safety of bonds. Remember? Well, 155 down to 130 between about 25 points. I would say that that's quite a dip. At this particular point, let's go through this one step at a time. One of the reasons for my subscribers to my opening call yesterday morning, early when I sent out my newsletter at about 8.10, I said, we want to go along the Dow Diamonds. We want to start at least a small position. We want to get in. It's the only new position we've got for the day. That's what we want, because there's a really good chance based on the fact that the MACD, the moving average convergence divergence, crossed positive usually after that happens, especially in the daily chart, you get at least further upside activity. That was yesterday. You can see right here, yes, this is the daily chart on the left. You can see the Dow did cross positive. Just for the moment, we'll step aside. We're going to talk about the bonds. We'll talk about just each index, and I'll tell you what's really important at this particular time based on my methodology. This cluster formation that we're seeing right here, very often in the chapter wave methodology, you get what's called a buy signal that doesn't get to a buy mode. The buy mode didn't apply. There should be at least four higher peaks, but all it does is it goes to peak A, just one peak up, and then it fails, or it goes to A, and then B, and then fails, but it does not take out that initial low. I just do this to show you, for those of you new to my work, the chapter wave notation, price comes down, and you try to identify the lowest low bar, and then each, like a sawtooth wave to the upside, you count each successively. You're basically grading alphabetically in sequence each higher peak, and the idea is to get to usually to a peak A and then a B, and at that point, there's a chance that you can go to a buy mode, which implies there should be at least four higher peaks. That's your obligation in this particular pattern to go from a buy signal to a buy mode. Now, sometimes this starts off, and then it fails, and it tries again, but it doesn't take out that initial low. If it takes time and moves sideways, at some point, when everything kicks in, not only does it go to a buy mode, it actually could recycle and go peak A, B, C, D, E, F, and even G, or the D recycles, but it's a very powerful move. We haven't got to that stage just yet, but I want you to just explain the pattern that we're looking at. So that's number one. That's the first pattern. The second pattern is, within this context, I do not like to see a very quick peak A, a bar rest, a peak B, a bar rest, and not very high, and then a leg C, and look today, there was this big move up to the upside, and the pattern that I show right here from the high that was made at $36,952.65 on the 5th of January, look at the lower lows, sorry, look at the lower highs and much lower lows. That's a pattern that I call the falling ax, let me just see if I can draw that in. Yep, there it is. So that's a pattern where price goes higher, then it starts to come down, starts to make these lower highs, much lower lows, then all of a sudden it finds a base and it tries to break out of that uptrend line, which is actually the upper downtrend line, and then it can go one to one to the upside if it succeeds in breaking that and turning that line into support. Whoops, wait a minute. They tried to break out to the $35,824 level around about February the 7th, 8th, and it failed, and that inside-track repellent zone has produced a reversal every single time. What a nice little technique. Instead of one trend line, there's easy for all of you to do, you just grab another line, make a parallel line, and within about a sixteenth inch of an inch or so, you have this inside-track either a pro-palant zone or the downside, we'll look at the ES in a moment, and I'll show you that, or a cell zone right here. So this cell zone says it's already in leg C, that's already using up a little bit too much, you serve too much energy without really going anywhere on a closing basis if it was up at the $33,951 instead of $33,702, the day is young, anything can happen. But so far, this is a long-legged doji type candle, there's a lot more that has to happen. I would say by Friday afternoon, the Dow has to at least test this 200 period exponential moving average of $34,363, and by Monday or Tuesday of next week has to be holding the $34,000 level as support if this is going to be a signal that says we should go into next week with higher highs. Okay, but at the same time, as I said, for subscribers, we went along early yesterday morning, we got just a little above the price that I initially thought was the preferred price, but we did get in, and I did not only raise the stop to a gain so that there was a bit of a profit, why? Because even if we pull back on FedSpeak today, my gut feeling was that this histogram, there's a zero percent line in the MACD, was starting to turn positive, and that at least gives you a cushion to the downside. Remember the restart of the buy signal, we can get a whole bunch of those as long as we don't take out $32,272. I'm spending time with the Dow because this is the one that I'm looking at very closely, it in many ways is holding a lot better than the others. The weekly chart is in a sell mode. The monthly chart hasn't given a sell signal yet still in a buy mode. Let's go to the S&P. I'll try to finish these off quickly because there is a lot to discuss, and there are a lot of questions. So S&P, so this is very important. You see this trend line? Do you remember the inside track repellence zone? Well, look at this, going all the way back to last year in August of 2021, this is the daily chart, I drew in this pattern, I made it very light now, I made it a deeper color to show the support level. So the 41,14.65 low of the 24th of February, you see all these restarts yet, but in the H pattern, we're not doing a dreaded H pattern, we haven't taken out 41,14.65. This is with the war going on, this is with appeals for all sorts of things, this is with wheat going to highs, crudel going to major highs, this is with all the VIX index holding, even now the VIX is at 2726, still pretty high, and yet it's held this Chapman Wave inside track repellence zone. So far the action is not good, but it's holding. There's a lot to talk about as soon as I return Basel Chapman, I do the Tiger Technicians at 10 o'clock every day, this is a Tom and Brian show, I am fortunate to be the guest host today, there's a lot to discuss, I also want to show you the E-minis, how there was a Chapman Wave squash pattern, and that you broke out to the peak C and now we're in a