 There's no room for debate. Okay. The bulls are either going to reject excuse me reclaim the 296 75 level on the 50-day moving average And start making its way to the 300 level the next supply zone or they're gonna get rejected again and close below 289 which is the rise in five-day support and go Welcome to access a trader the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success profitability and longevity Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge master your process and own your future Hey guys good evening everybody welcome to another edition of the access a trader calm weekend well weekend Monday update show Everybody's doing well. So, you know great run last week really really good run last week by the bulls again We we highlighted pretty much everything throughout the week, especially on the weekend video But you know, we came to a crossroad and that crossroad Was the 50-day moving average again in case you're joining us here for the first time that was the big defense, right? Nothing good happens in the market when you're below the 50-day moving average for a macro point of view and Generally, right if you're a bull nothing bad generally remember There's always bad positions bad companies But it happens if you're above the 50-day moving average that is risk on and the most important part of this rally And this is kind of when we emphasize the difference between all these other bear markets that we've seen just in the last 20 years to where we are now There's been really good pockets of strength in this bear market again. We've saw this really really big Run in March. We saw this really pretty good run here in May We saw another run a couple of weeks ago in June and this was our five-day run In July and hitting the 50-day moving average perfectly. So if you watched the weekend video last night's video We knew, you know, there was two areas of the market We knew that the bulls had to reclaim the 50-day moving average, which was 296.75 And we also highlighted in yesterday's video any clothes Below this 290 area is not exactly what the bulls want to see and You know going into today. I was like, you know what? Let's see what happens here You know, I thought that if the bulls can kind of not necessarily even rally today But I thought if the bulls can actually just you know put up a very boring methodical kind of a complacent day I thought we had a you know, we had a shot, right? I thought we had a legitimate shot that later in the week the market will wake up But the one thing that I knew more than anything any speculation any Guessing because again, you know, I'm not a really good guesser. We knew our levels, right? We knew our levels 50 day to the upside 10 day to the downside and unfortunately for the bulls we closed Below the five-day moving average, which is the shortest-turn sentiment and now we're shaping up to a 10-day 10-day defense for you for tomorrow and it's going to be a big big deal I got again I don't want to sensationalize tomorrow's trading day that hey do or die if we Confirm tomorrow we're going to go back to the lows. Listen, maybe that happens But at least baby steps we have to understand what happens before we go down to the lows that the bears need to right? They need to confirm this 10-day moving average this 288 level for tomorrow's session is gonna be pretty big It's gonna be really really a big deal because again if you believe in the theory that socks trade from you know Supply to demand right? Well, this is coming from demand to demand So they start losing 288 tomorrow at any point of the day the cues have a destined You know destination of 284 and any clothes below 284 again, you could see where the bottom of the channel is So again without putting it anything into like a dramatic Do or die situation if you are a permable You have to really you know appreciate that 288 level again the 290. There's nothing you could do about right now Right, we talked about that in the last night's video that level is gone, right? Bulls need to defend that 288 tomorrow If not there's another four points four four and a half points of downside coming in into this rising support right here But the big one the big with the biggest Pocket for you know pretty aggressive damage could be a close below 284 same thing Pretty much on the spies although we talked about in last night's video that the spies weren't Exactly where the cues were challenging the 50-day moving average They were a little bit of the lager but the question was well if the cues started losing the bottom the channel again And I'll be honest. I did not think Today was gonna be the day that they were gonna give up especially that quickly Without a fight but that happened and you could see her quickly how even though the spies were the lager It gave up the five and the 10-day moving average very very quickly as well And all these stocks that had the really big runs yesterday world excuse me last week I'll tell you one thing like you know, we had a we had a pivot on we have three separate pivots this morning And we'll get to the pivots in a second one on Tesla one on Amazon. What was the other one Tesla Amazon and Metta right at least meta got downgraded so fine. Let's take meta out of the equation But when you look at all these stocks for example, they were going up last week on pretty big massive option flow, right? Like last week they were coming for you know the 770s the 780s the 800 800 calls Man, look how easily look how easily without any effort today The bears really took they took down two major Candles here and closed it below the 10-day moving average which again if you look at Tesla's chart Man, this thing is one day away from having a lot of airspace back to the downside That's not a good thing all those buyers they were coming in on on Amazon last week They were coming for the 1820s this one candle in gulf three days, right? Almost three and a half days worth of buying on one day with without any really big fight back to get it back above The five-day moving average you can see it 114 was a five-day moving average closed You know way below almost three dollars below that as well and you saw that on a lot of stocks as well You know names like Roku gave up, you know gave up its all its major support here lowest close Shopify I really like Shopify tomorrow if we start moving lower held bottom the channel here twice They were coming for the $30 weekly puts, you know pretty aggressively here ups going back to Tesla Like this is a pretty big candle today Okay, and obviously anybody who bought pre-market or bought Friday night on the news that you know musk is walking away in the deal The one thing is man once you start to see the option flow is it went right on the day today They weren't just coming for like the 730 720 puts they were coming for the 680 670 weeklies That's something to really really keep in mind again That type of aggression is really going to open up a lot of eyes and really raise a lot of eyebrows because again When you're talking about technical damage and you could see again We might be a day day or two away any clothes below the 690s level it may has 60 65 points of downside That's where they're betting me these guys are betting somewhere around here 670 680s when the stock was still in its set and it's 740 So you got the institutional money flow that was coming into the market on deep out of the money option flow Last week and today they started betting, you know pretty heavy on a lot of names that ran up last week Really went through technical damage pretty quickly today didn't put up a lot of fight Like I mentioned earlier and the most important part is yeah We did close below the 290 level and now the question is what happens next? So here's the levels right here's the levels and every day you know every night I'm gonna try to give you guys You know I don't want to use the word macro levels, but important levels going into the next day here So the 10-day moving average is 288 everybody see that right 288 is this green line here There's something that in the ps60 theory that I call the 10-day moving average on the upside It's called the birth of the trade so basically what that means is it reclaimed five-day Which is a short-term sentiment and now the birth of the trade gives you a kind of a room right room for the next potential measure potential So not that this is the end all be all but this 288 level guys watch this area here 288 Obviously to the upside we're not even close to that now But 288 to the downside 288 becomes a pretty big turn and anything below 284 guys again Big big levels down so keep an eye on that on the spies You know watch below today's low the same thing 10 day if we start gapping and start you know building below 383 50 on the spies then your next move is down to 380 and any close below 380 again You can see how much airspace there is as well. So, you know, we're kind of set up tomorrow I mean, you know look it's very very tough and you kept on hearing this and this is kind of would I kept on reiterating the point You keep on hearing like you know any rally in this market, especially in a bare environment Well, that's the bottom. That's the bottom. That's the bottom and all I kept on saying especially on on the weekend video is I'm like Listen, nobody cares about picking the bottom or being being right of you know identifying the bottom That's again. That's water cooler talk. That's social media stuff, you know fishing for shares and likes Maybe that was the bottom. Maybe that wasn't but the one thing I kept on reiterating over the weekend videos can at least we Get above the 50 day moving average before somebody Appointing this is the bottom and that's the problem. We didn't get above the 50 day moving average We were definitely not the bottom release not yet and the most important part is the bulls gave back control The bears got it right back closed below pretty decent levels And if this if those levels confirmed tomorrow again, we're going to see More downside bias. So let's talk about the pivots Really quickly again, here's the you know again, you didn't you didn't need to to be creative today Anybody who turns around that said, uh, you know any any point this morning and any sell-off Well, who could have seen this comment if you looked at charts. It was obvious, right? It was obviously here's from two days ago You know, we talked about, you know, 96 75 to the upside to 90 to the downside again Again, it's right in front of you guys The market is not trying to trick you new traders is nobody pulling the curtain behind you Nobody's trying to you know, nobody's trying to play games with you It's right in front of you everybody has the data All you have to do is just look at the charts and see where the viable defense is And where the viable supply is and once that defense gets cleaned up the market goes lower And once that supply gets cleaned up the market goes higher and these were very very definitive levels And if you came into today unprepared, unfortunately, you're looking at a pretty decent move Back to the downside and the bears having control. So let's talk about today's action Of you know, pretty quickly here. So meta Downgraded and need him this morning 105 80 held twice if it builds below can flush more. Here is meta, right downgraded. So here's the here's the Here's the 60 minute view. You see this right here 65 80 held once 65 80 held twice Third time was the charm traded all the way down to 60 62 Meta looks lower for tomorrow Mara wasn't even watching. What did Mara do? Mara 890 to the upside never came close Never came close again. Here's the two sided trade guys. And this is and this is what we talk about Don't fall in love with the stock, right? You might love the company. I I love tesla as a company and last week we were You know by bias tesla, but again, it's all about the pivots. It's all about where is it going to control? Who's going to take control over either the bottom of the range or the top of the range here? Here was 765 to the upside 746 to the downside something had to give here and tesla just just got murdered I mean, that's pretty much the way to you know the way to say it. So here is the 765, right? Here's where I get these channels for you see the top here 765, right? That's also the high from friday You see the low here 746, right? So you have 765 746 and Destruction absolute destruction on tesla. Congratulations. I mean great move I mean absolutely great move on tesla. I would just love the if it was had a little bit more liquidity to today But it is what it is amazon 1350 last week's bottom channel and the pre-market low as if it builds below can flush right out the gates they started coming for Amazon 110 puts very very aggressively. So here's the channel last week right here. There's 1350. Everybody see it? 1350 that was also pre-market low once it took out the 1350 went all the way down to 1087 again amazon's not broken yet, but any close below 110 109 will have a lower prices Qualcomm I liked it to the upside at one point never got there shop I liked it to the upside at one point never got there and again Here's the macro, you know macro channels for the week All right, 297 upside 290 downside. Obviously we saw which one confirmed here comes here comes amazon Guys watch uh watch uh watch shop for tomorrow I like this thing if shop takes down today's channel a buyer came in with a thousand of the weekly 30 puts this thing can get hit as well And I believe that's it. So that's it guys. That's it. Unfortunately if you're a bull I wish I had a better Viewpoint for you wish I had a little bit better news But again, I think the bulls had their opportunity. They really really needed to kind of put it in the inside day I understand we all understand they got rejected last week off the 50 day moving average But if we could have just rallied a little bit Then we would have probably attacked that 50 day moving average at some point this week But the fact that we fell below the five and now we're very very close To confirming back the 10 day moving average back to the downside. It's not a great picture And I wish I had better news for all the long Bios traders in the crowd. That's it guys. Have a great night. God bless We're going to my son's basketball game and with God's help. I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care