 Welcome to Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 11th of November with me Patrick Munderley. In the US, unless October retail sales on Friday collapse, it looks like the recent benign conditions can probably continue. We're waiting for this year's monetary stimulus to show up in better confidence numbers. Wednesday's release of US October CPI figures, headlines still at 1.7% year-over-year, are unlikely to mean much to the market, who are more focused on activity right now. There's also Fed chairs, Powell's address to Congress on Wednesday. But like the other central banks, the Fed looks to be in a way in C mode, pushing to see if their three rate cuts this year have curtailed the slowdown. From a technical perspective, the dollar index made a new low as anticipated and buyers have stepped in ahead of the major sending trendline support of the 9680 area. We're now looking for a test of symmetry swing resistance. This is our A, B, C, and this being our decompletion point at the 9890 area where we also have the monthly R1 pivot. I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns here to set new dollar shorts, looking for a test of this trendline support down 97 and then an equidistant swing objective down a 96 area. Also looking at the dollar, let's check in with gold. Gold failed to hold the support at the 1460 area and now looks poised to test an A, B, C, D pattern, which will complete down at the 1422 level. As this area potentially acts as support, bulls will be looking for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, targeting a move back up to test the monthly pivot from below, coming in now at the 1500 level. Some perceived cracks in the so far very tight Canadian job market are pushing traders to keep following the easing lead, deriving from the latest Bank of Canada meeting and are gradually increasing their bets for a rate cut in the next few months. There is a higher than perceived risk that the BOC will deliver a one and out insurance cut at the December 4th meeting. Some clarity on this point may come from next Thursday's speech by BOC Governor Stephen Pollas. There is also likely to be the only idiosyncratic catalyst for Looney next week and otherwise the pair will remain mostly driven by the US-China trade related news flow. From a technical perspective, the Looney held support at the 131.30 area and now looks poised to test a resistance cluster up at the 3250 to 3280 area. As this area acts as resistance, there is a potential that we trade lower again to test the monthly pivot from above back down at 131.86. Failure to find support here would suggest that we come back down to retest the base in a continuing range trade between 131 and 132. FX performance represents the emergence of the euro as a preferred funding currency on the view that interest rates in the eurozone will remain at rock bottom throughout 2020. Supporting this view could be the German 3rd quarter 2019 GDP data release on Thursday, which may well show a technical recession. Driving that weakness will be the industrial sector and eurozone IP data on Wednesday should also tell the story of manufacturing sector grinding to a halt. Market watchers down some modest uptick in Tuesday's German ZEW survey will provide much of a lift. From a technical perspective, we're now looking for the euro dollar to test the century swing support area and the monthly S1 pivot down at 109.60, where I've been looking for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions targeting a retest of the prior cycle highs at 111.80 and then on towards the 112.50 equidistant swing target. A close or a breach below 109.50 would suggest that we are not going to be holding the century swing support area and they were likely to test down back into the year state lows at the 108.80 area. While we're talking about the euro, let's check in with the DAX. DAX continues to grind higher. We're now testing the monthly R1 pivot, where we've seen some profit taking emerge. However, as the 13,000 area holds a support now, I'm looking for a test of the 13,640 major equidistant swing objective. I'll be looking for profit taking and sellers, just step in here and looking then for a pullback initially to test the monthly R1 from above back down at the 13,300 level. In the UK, the third quarter GDP growth will be released on Monday. It's expected to show a solid 0.4% quarter over quarter rebound. However, another sharp four in the level of employment data released on Tuesday would emphasize the jobs market is no longer tightening. Hiring indicators point to deteriorating demand for staff amid Brexit and global uncertainties. October CPI inflation data released Wednesday should show a decline to 1.5% year over year. But October retail sales released Thursday should rise by 3.3% year over year. Like the Bank of England meeting last week, the data should be of secondary importance for sterling and the effect on the currency should be short-lived and limited. All the matters at the moment of GDP is the upcoming parliamentary elections and traders will be keeping a close eye on the polls that have been released. From a tentative perspective, the sterling pattern continues to develop a bullish consolidation pattern. As long as we hold this 127 20 to 127 40 area, then there is the potential that we set a base looking for bullish reversal patterns to target a retest of prior highs and the stops above 130 on route to a test of the 130 to 30 area. However, a failure to hold 127 of support would suggest a much deeper pullback initially targeting a move down to test trend line support there at 1.2440. However, as I say, watching the test of the monthly pivot and this ABCD pattern at the 127 area looking for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions. In Japan, the focus will be on Thursday's release of 3rd quarter GDP data expected at 0.2% quarter over quarter. It's expected to be supported by front-loaded consumption ahead of the October sales tax hike. We'll also be watching the regular portfolio flows data and where the Japanese buying of foreign bonds is accelerating. That's been implied by recent surveys of life insurance managers and Japan's largest fund manager, the GPIF, suggesting it was making room for larger unhedged foreign bond purchases. From a technical perspective, the Dolly Yen has continued to test the offers at the 10950 area and we've been unable to take out the stops just above as such as the potential that we pull back now to test 108 again as support. However, a close above 10960 would be a bullish development setting sites firmly then on the multiple equidistant swing targets situating at 11040 to 11070. This will be an area I've been watching for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions targeting a retest of the prior assistance at 109. Over the last few months, the expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate path have been strictly connected to any marginal change in the inflation and employment data. This means that next week's labor report for the month of October has once again a make or break potential for the Australian dollar. In line with consensus and according to the Bloomberg survey, market watchers expect the unemployment rate to remain at 5.2%. Such an number will not be enough to push markets to take out anything from the 15 basis points currently priced in for the next six months. The risk remains that even a marginal 0.1% increase will give a pretext to pencil in an RBA cut. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar is pulling back to test the pitchfork support and the monthly pivot at the 6830 area. As this area supports, I've been watching for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions targeting a test of the 70 cent level. However, any failure below the 6830 68 support zone would open and move back down to test 6730 at support. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 11th of November.