 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill earning season preview with me Patrick Munley before we jump into today's presentation As always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer and most important To the content today is the fact that the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine They're not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limitids. Okay, let's jump into today's report We're looking at Microsoft. Microsoft are set to announce earnings after the close of New York trade-in today Consensus is for an earnings per share of two dollars thirty on revenue of fifty point zero eight billion Should note there is a whisper number out there that the earnings per share could come in slightly higher at two dollars thirty two cents In terms of the earnings report, obviously we've had news this week or sorry last week that Microsoft intends to lay off 1,000 workers across multiple divisions with fears of recession looming Axios and business inside a recent report these layoffs could come in Under 1,000 workers, but will span various regions and departments Microsoft spokesperson has confirmed the accuracy of these reports in email software giants first-quarter earnings also come amid foreign exchange Pressure and concerns about weakness in the company's PC business After a pandemic-related boom the PC market is in its sharpest fall since data on it was first collected in the mid 90s according to analysts Microsoft cloud revenue accounted for almost 50% of the company's total revenue during its fiscal Fourth quarter results in July and grew 28% compared with the prior years quarter Despite foreign exchange and PC headwinds the software sector in general is expected to be one of the highlights of the tech earning season Microsoft's second quarter forecast however will be crucial in recent quarters Microsoft sock has fallen even after the company reported strong numbers Then flipped to the green after the software maker delivers its forecast roughly two hours later Despite Microsoft's fiscal fourth quarter earnings miss in July the company's guidance sent the stock higher shares of Microsoft have fallen 29.78% in 2022 outpacing S&P 500 decline of 23.9%. Let's take a look at some of the stock trading patterns around the Microsoft earnings release Microsoft shares have moved higher in the immediate Aftermarth of earnings eight out of 12 previous reports on average stops moved up 1% in the first day of trading after the company's earnings release based on the previous 12 earnings releases Microsoft is more likely to trade higher one day after earnings from average gain of 0.4% On average the stocks move higher by 3% one week after earnings in terms of volatility What we can expect there options traders are pricing in a 5.4% move on earnings Stocks actually average a 3.1% move in recent quarters and from a flow and sentiment perspective Noteworthy here that there's been just under 8,000 contracts Bid on the $250 call expiring this Friday and options order flow sentiment in general is bullish Analyst sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 89.3% of coverage bullish Microsoft's share price has drifted down 8.1% post its prior earnings release Using the last 12 quarters of the data the average earnings drift as after announcements is about 5.6% Let's pull up the Amazon charts and see if we can identify any near-term trading opportunities In the stock so from a technical perspective We have seen a decent recovery in line with broader risk sentiment in terms of the market So whilst we hold the $234.25 as the swing low I have a technical upside objective at $258.78 remember there's a decent bid in the market for those 250 calls So what I'd be looking for is any close now through The $249.55 area to engage on the long side targeting that $258 We do have a gap above there at $266.50 In terms of a stop on this opportunity, I've been placing a stop level just below the $245.00 area But the setup looks constructive here at the moment obviously any loss of the $234.00 on the downside will be bearish development to my mind opening a retested price cycle lows $219.00 And just below there on the weekly timeframe we have $214.53 as the high volume load for that post-pandemic advance and the 2022 pullback because that's really a crucial area to hold If we fail at $214.00 the next downside objective is going to be an equality target to the downside $190.70 but for now constructive looking for longs through that $249.50 As always traders plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk Until next time, thanks very much