 Alright, thanks for staying with us now. The challenges primarily that has informed the decision for CBN to redesign the NIRON notes are significant hoarding of banknotes by members of the public, worsening shortage of clean and fit banknotes, increased ease and risk of counterfeiting to mention a few. Now, although global best practices is for the central bank to redesign, produce and circulate new local legal tender every 5 to 8 years, the NIRON has not been redesigned in the last 20 years. If like me, you're wondering why now and why is it such a pressing need given that the state of the economy, we have so many things that are much more important, then let's hear what you have to say. Remember, you can join the conversation, send us an SMS or WhatsApp at the rate 1, 803-4663. You can also tweet at us at weishoafqa1 with the hashtag weisho, like they're in one second. Are you wondering like Mida, what do you know? The last time they changed the money, I think they said they wanted it to be more durable, so they made it plastic laminated. So, well, they tried. It was better than what we had in the past, but no, it was because we don't want transparency. You don't know what it is, but at least they made an attempt at sorting that problem. Now, when I was younger, I used to go to a drawer and we were right next to the mint and they had explained to us that that's where they print money. As a child, I couldn't understand why they said there was no money in the country if we could be printing it anyhow. And in economics, they taught us that there's a certain limit to how much money that you can have in circulation at any point in time. The reason why this is baffling to me, sir, the reason why this is baffling to me is that just like the Bank of America, where they say their citizens are actually born dead to the country, everybody sort of has a debt to pay. The people that want to print this money now are a business onto their own selves, so it's an advantage for them to print. It's not so much that they think we need new notes because we're getting new notes. The same way we have issues, we're getting passports done because passport pages are like currency, like legal tender. If we can't get that sorted yet, why are we going to pump money into printing notes in my layman's understanding? I do not have anything to say. It's a public affairs analyst who constantly lends his voice on video every morning on issues as it appears on the front pages of our daily lives, and he's a friend of the house. Now, Abiodou Kirikwe, Managing Director of AFRI Best Consulting Limited, has been an avid commentator on the African market with over 15 years of professional experience in economics and investment research, business strategy and investment advisory. He currently leads the consultancy practice of AFRI Best franchise, where he supports what's called businesses with transformation and optimization strategies. Both of them have joined us live in studio because Uwada does not have anything to say about this topic, but thank you so much, guys. We're just going to be adding ous and ous and ous. So let me continue the vote first of all, because you see this matter, I don't get why it's like everybody, I mean, there are so many skits that have come on social media. I mean, there was one that we learned to chamber did that just cracked me up so badly. He said the building is collapsing. He said, no problem, paint the building, just paint it. He said, but I said the building is collapsing. He said, paint it now. That Nigeria can change currency. When the economy is collapsing, I can paint my building and sell it. I mean, it sounded funny, but this is how most Nigerians are seeing everything that is going on. So maybe you help us break it down. Why now? Why do we need to rebrand the Naira? Well, thank you very much. We've been playing football in this country for a long time now, and you have to be a good midfielder to understand that the connection between the goal and the defense is the middleman. And once again, we're at another opportunity of the more you see, the less you understand. Just like how they still are crude and we're not able to either make hay out of what is going on. Now, let's start with all the premises or the premise that the CBN gave. Now, first of all, understand that CBN is within their right and authority to carry out this tactic. It's under the monetary policy control or how they regulate cash flow within the economy. And we have about our economy is about 170 trillion, that's the GDP. Then the cash in circulation is about 48 trillion. And the amounts that they're trying to mop up is about 3 trillion. And the first simple direct reason is there's a lot of cash that's out there that's not within the banking system. And they gave different, different reasons that while they're trying to regulate the money supply, there's too much cash out there. Now, that action is usually like a form of control. Most times, under the monetary policy, they raise interest rates to reduce the capacity of from banks to even individuals in spending, right? Because when the interest rate is higher, you tend to spend less, right? Now, also, they have some other activities called open market operations to mop up cash, et cetera. But in this instance, they literally, this exercise helps to mop up cash because for there are many Nigerians who you and I know beyond the usual reasons, they keep cash at home. Yeah, so people don't trust the system. So they keep large hordes of cash at home. Now, they said that 85% of the cash out there is floating around and they want to bring that back. It's not within the system. Now, these are all good reasons, right reasons. They also said that, oh, to help their cashless policy, which they studied years ago, even though they put it on slight hold, there's been an increase in the use of electronic channels and moving money to the tune of almost $240 trillion, right? Then the POS is the mobile money, et cetera. They also said that to curb criminal activities with cash. And this is where it gets a bit tricky. One, money laundering, okay? We're aware of how, as they still are crude, many estates are being built in Abuja. We can't hide it anymore. You know how anytime people tell you they've bought a house, the first question people ask is, well, now they see this money. I need to ask, well, now they see the money to build all those estates in Abuja. Okay? It takes a lot of cash. Now, we also understand that real estate is used for laundering money. So money that's been stolen doesn't go direct to the banks. So people need to make a connection between all those estates being built and money that's leaving. So all this cash is out there in the system kidnapping. It's also criminal. Yes. They won't collect the transfer. And they collect cash to run some. No, no, kidnapper will take a transfer. A check. Or a check. An open data check. Right? It's not going to give an account to pay. Two, terrorism financing also comes by cash. Four, counterfeiting. Well, I'm not. Which he said, I mean, from the, from the communique, 500 Naira notes and 1000 Nairas, yes. Currently, there are so many counterfeiting in circulation, according to what the CBN said. According to the CBN, even though, you know, some people are tools counterfeiting the Naira. One, two, I haven't come across counterfeiting Naira. In a long while, yes. In a long while. Nevertheless, then also, new notes hoarding. Yes. Whilst new notes have been in circulation, most of us can't get them because they disappear at the banks and show up at weddings, parties. To buy 50 K, you 10 K to buy. At a fee. At a fee. So, you know. Releasing them. Now the last one, which many felt that maybe this is the reason is to curb vote buying. We're about approaching an election. We're aware, EFCC, FIU, CBN, INEC, they're all aware that many people have stored up cash. The same way we saw it in and also to be able to bribe or induce votes to their side. And they've been stopped piling across the years for this event. So the whole idea is that let's checkmate it by ensuring that you can bring in your money. Now, that takes me to the last reason, which was currency management. And this management has to do with, okay, the cost of production and distribution. Now, one of the things that most people are afraid of is that they believe that this three trillion that's out there, that the CBN is going to swap. Let's say I have a billion Naira at home in cash. Like that one they discovered in Koi. That was dollar. So people have the same stash in Naira. So let's say the CBN comes up with this promise. Yes. That I'm going to bring that my one billion out of the ground that I hid it and go to the bank and replace it with another. CBN is saying no, they're only going to replace like one third of that. Yes. Well, it will be in the bank. They want it to come back to the bank instead of staying under your pillow. So in a way, this might be a good thing. Because all these people are playing money politics. If you need my help, my account is available. Like they will arrest you. He's a joke allegedly. Don't joke like that. But Abiodi, let me come to you. I mean, Devo has said a lot, you know. But let me ask you, I mean, do you agree with Devo and why, when we are asking why now, are we wrong to ask this? Because people are saying that there's a lot of priority in this country. Changing Naira and what is not priority at all. But here in Devo now, I'm looking at it that, yes, something might just be good out of this thing because, you know, some candidates are not giving shishi, but some candidates are ready to spend a lot of money. But let me hear your thoughts on this. So, I mean, basically, as it is typical with policies generally, there is the positive and the negatives. And one needs to be able to have a very balanced view, balanced perspective. If we look back in time, 2016, November in India, we had similar developments where the prime minister basically decided to pull back all of the 1,500 rupees in the system, all still giving similar reasons and excuses, which the CBN has provided us today. Huge, huge growth in the use of black money and all of the other. And then you look at that policy and ask the question, what is the impact? What impact did it have? So, first of all, there was on the side that, were they able to actually cob down in the use of black money? If you track the numbers and the reports out there, you realize that really there was no effect in terms of cobbing black money because people got quite creative and while indeed, like Elio mentioned, a lot of people used those money, put, pump them into real estate, which had impact on prices. So, there was inflation, inflation began to rise. Which is who we're suffering now. Exactly. So, in the context of Nigeria, for instance, already inflation at 20.8 percent is quite elevated already. So, if we have a short window of about roughly two months to sort of begin to roll down on existing cash or existing currencies to replace a new currency, what does that mean for those who are falling into that window of stocking or stockpiling cash outside the banking system? It is real that those numbers, the truth is the currency outside the banking system or the total currency in circulation is a significant fragment of the entire money in supply. If you're looking at M3, M3 as a measure, M3 is probably around $43 trillion. Total currency in circulation is just about $3.23 trillion there about. What is outside the banking system? It's just about $2.7 trillion. So, you are saying it's not the major amount of need? It's not so huge compared to the overall money in supply. So, what then is the justification? But we'll be coming into that. Outside the fact that they were not able to really cop down black money, it had implications on average lives. India said back then, the number of poor people relative to the overall population was quite high. The use of financial digital platform, mobile money was quite low. But then after that policy, there had to be a bit of a significant rise in the use of digitalization and mobile money so that a lot of people were able to stay within the financial system. But then while that was happening, there was massive job costs, there was job losses, there was unemployment, there was increase in poverty because people could not readily assess the new notes. Institutions, companies were rejecting the old notes. So, there was basically a big gap in the lives of people. Now, are we likely to see that in Nigeria? Maybe not. Because we have somewhat very impressive levels in terms of number of financially inclusive people. Probably maybe we have just about $18 million outside the financial or outside the financial inclusion bracket. What does that mean? In the rural area, that number might be higher of the 38 million people within the rural area. It might be worse. Are these people able to assess these new notes when it's beginning to circulate? Maybe at a very, very low rate? So, what is their fate? I think that's another question you can ask. On the flip side now, what are the gains? Okay, before I move into the gains, the negative, also you could look at it in terms of taxes. So, for the government, when you have so much money outside the banking system, it then means that there's a lot of economic activity happening outside the financial system, which you're not able to earn tax revenue on. So, there couldn't be any switch in that for Nigeria. Already, if you look at our tax numbers, we're doing quite well. Government is able to track companies' activity, but the real challenge is in the retail, the macro, small businesses and the farmers out there and the very small families that do small, small transactions. Because we're talking about 38 million people here, if you gross those numbers together, it's going to come out to something significant. So, how is government able to leverage this policy to bring in those people within the financial system and then government can be able to sort of earn some type of tax revenue? I think those will be some of the positive, which there are, of course, the questions are how, how behind it. On that note, let me take a break because we're going to ask one house when we come back from the break. Stay with us. We'll be right back. All right. Thanks for staying with us. Now, before we went on the break, we're discussing the CBN Naira Notre branding and we're asking why and the buildup, they quite expanded a lot of our thinking because some of these things, we can't really understand it and place it, but I think it's beginning to make sense to me. So, let's hear what you have to say. Remember, you can join the conversation, send us an SMS or WhatsApp to 081-803-4663. You can also tweet at us at WeishawAfqawon with the hashtag Weishaw. All right. Lady, have a question. Yes, please come to me. Devo, you may want to take it up after I've done this. The question I want to ask, recently somebody said on social media, how many of you really have 500,000 Naira in your account? I personally don't and I'm supposed to be slightly more privileged than the average man in Nigeria, right? You would have us believe. I'm telling you for a fact, it's grace that we live on in this country. I'm slightly better to the grace of God than an average Nigerian and I personally don't have any time sitting in the accounts without purpose or use 500,000 Naira. Is it I'm gathering it for rent? I'm gathering it for something. It's not money that is just there for me to say I'm liquid. The people that have the volumes in their accounts, whether it's wired money that really doesn't even have to be seen, are the ones sitting down making this rule that we need to change currency. And they know that the deals that they tend to have, most of them, we never see money. It's wire, wire, wire, wire, wire transfers. The question now is considering the fact that most Nigerians who are not the one percent of the one percent don't have this cash that they even want to change in their account. Who do we really ask? Who came up with this? Because we will say CBN, but I won't call you goods. Yes, now the thing is this brings us to the challenges of this policy, right? The implementation. And like you rightly said, the bulk of Nigerians don't have all this cash. Now there are eight denominations. It's only the top three that have changed the 200, 500 and 1,000 Naira nodes. They're actually aiming, like let's say 80 percent of that three trillion in circulation is being held by a few people. Those are the people the CBN is actually chasing. Yes, those are the ones. And what they're telling those who don't really have all that cash is don't be panicky. You have between the 15th of December and January, half beginning of the year to exchange. So what that means is you can start now by just start depositing your money within the bank. So by the time it reaches the once they start to release it, you'll get it easily. You're actually not the one they're targeting. Now that takes us to the issues of this policy. One, with all this cash and circulation, right? If the bulk are those who keep money stored away, those who have lots of money for whatever, for 48 trillion of cash and supply, three trillion is only seven percent. So why the push? Why the short timing? That's question number one. Two, you know that if I'm holding between 500,000 or even 500 million or a billion in cash, will I want to go and drop it in the bank knowing that the bank is not going to give me back same in mint, right? And for whatever I mean. Do you mean you even have it? Yes. And for what I want to use it for, since they're not going to give me back exactly what I put in, what would I do if I'm smart as most Nigerians? I would go and try and exchange it for dollar. So already within two days of this announcement, dollar moved from 750, that's in the black market, to 760. And then to that I heard it was floating between 770 and 785 already simply because of this policy. And you know once there's a chase on the dollar, it's direct inflation to every other thing we import direct inflation to everybody expecting to change. And you know the airlines have been sitting and waiting. It just means we're all going to spend more cash. You know what? I want you to hold that thought because I'm here in the breaking news that federal government is disowning and may fail over the plan to redesign the Naira. And I believe they have a video or something if we can just petition. Yes, the Ministry of Finance. Oh, okay. I didn't know that. You should have said that. That's not a casual topic. Okay, if we can play that clip. So can we find that clip quickly while they are trying to find the clip? Yes, the politics is coming on board. Yeah, because if I hear you correctly, both of you write, it seems like this is actually supposed to be targeted at a few people, right? Okay, so let's hear the federal government. They're not consulted. It was an announcement that we heard. Okay, you two just saw the press release like everyone else. Part of the reasons that was advocated is that's one of the ways to more public liquidity to manage inflation. But there are also consequences that we're also looking at what would the consequences be. There will be some benefits, but there will be some challenges. And I don't know whether the monetary authorities have actually looked very closely as to what the consequences are and then how they can be mitigated. So I still advise that you have that discussion with the monetary authorities, not as the fiscal authority. First of all, as a fiscal authority, we're not aware of it. It was an announcement. Secondly, I think that's one of the ways that they're trying to use to manage inflation. But there are consequences that also need to be considered and how to manage those consequences. You are not aware? We're not informed. It's not a crime to not be aware. The Sibian hasn't gone out of his way. They have an act that backs the, it's within the past to decide what happens to the value. Is it possible for the Sibian to act without the federal Ministry of Finance? So the Sibian responds to reports to the President. So they can do things outside of the Ministry of Finance? I have a different view on that. Since 1990, Abacha's days, 1997, the Sibian before was autonomous. But with Abacha's error, he puts a limit to their autonomy. So they're under the supervision of the Ministry of Finance, which is why her raising questions on this policy move might put a hold, let me not say put a hold, but it's going to cause for there to be a review on it because this took place at the National Assembly Review. And you heard her say, you might want to ask the Monetary Authorities what is happening. And if those bodies from the Ministry of Finance and the National Assembly are not clear on this, it might not move, the Sibian might not be able to activate it as they wanted. If you remember during the days of Soludo, there was a time he wanted to redesimilize the Naira. And he brought it. He was like, oh, this is what we're going to do. He had already announced it. It's a great idea. On the surface, immediately a spanner was thrown in the wheel that the presidency had not approved. So even though this, in quotes, may have come presidential approval, I think some people have been sidestepped. It doesn't change the fact that Sibian has right to make this policy announcement. It's just parallel to when they have the NPC Committee and they decide they want to increase interest rate or reduce interest rate. They don't go to the NSA, NASS to request for permission or to the Ministry of Finance to request for permission to either increase interest. After the policy direction or implementation, you could have this kickback. If you have all of these commentaries coming in, I wasn't aware, we were not consulted and all of that. Depending on the pressure, where it's coming from, the circular already says it had been approved by the presidency. Exactly, the presidential approval. So basically what that means is we don't need somebody who can go meet the presidency, convince the presidency that this policy is totally wrong. But let's come back to both of you and I want to start with you. Do you think this would help our economy? Because given your case study of India, it didn't do so well in India. It didn't do so well in India because perhaps Nigeria and India now, in terms of certain metrics, we probably appear somewhat better placed, right? India then, financial inclusion was poor compared to Nigeria today. Financial inclusion is higher. Government's ability to track taxation and increase revenues from taxation compared to India then for today is better. We're better off. So basically, even just looking at those two parameters, it seems okay, it might have some positive for the economy. But if you now just epoxy within the bigger issues affecting the Nigerian economy, when we talk about debt sustainability issues, fiscal crises, poor revenue generation, foreign currency, volatility and what of you, should this then be the best decision that we should be pursuing? Because now I am hearing for you to print 30 million. I mean, how much? Okay, so there's some numbers. Yes, I saw a minute. It's about 30 million for one. 50 billion, you print about 1. something trillion. Right? Yeah, the value of printing is more than the value placed on the most senior edge in economics is called senior edge. So it just says that the cost of printing is a higher or lower than actually the value of the currency. Yes, but the truth is that if you're looking at in situ in one day, the truth is it stretched across time because that money would be in use for a long time. But again, my point is, instead of investing that amount of money in something that isn't priority, who do we talk to about? Like you said, someone is to sit with the president. I don't know if the heirs have been fixed. Who do we talk to about? Please let us channel this energy. So it brings us back to where I would love us to be in the sense that, like I said, once again when we started, our faces being pulled over with a wool. Someone taking us for granted. I want to hit, well, the National Assembly just started questioning today. Let's see how far that interrogation goes. One, two, there are too many things taking place just before election. And we're not unaware of how during political season so many capital projects begin to come out. And we all know how that is in a bid to raise financing for politics. This government hasn't given us too many reasons for us to trust it. Already we're discussing how someone said there was a security notification. Then another person says, no, don't really be bothered. Take it easy. And then all of a sudden we start seeing people heading for the airport. What is really going on? And then some level of security threats are discovered. Now that is in this same vein also. Now my question is this, even if they go ahead with it, because the motive is rights, but we're looking at the timing. I hope, and can we really trust government to ensure that the implementation is going to be seamless and smooth? In every instance that government has had to process one thing or the other for the Nigerian citizens. Nigerians have suffered EG, NIN, EG, passport, EG, driver's license, EG, SIM card registration, voter's card. And we've all had to suffer. Or maybe because I didn't have money then. Because clearly no bus on just time. They did NERA notes, whatever. I went to deposition my two co-workers that I had. They have problems. This money, from what you guys have explained, we are not the attackers. They know who they are. The fact is, they know who they are after. And truly, it's the question about time is really important. And if we can trust government, it's really another thing. Already in that communique, it said something about, banks will be served on a first confidence basis. So that already then says that would there even be enough or sufficient new currencies to go round? Or we're going to have this Nigerian way of inconveniencing this new currency. If that's going to be the case, then we're heading into another. Let's take comments. My dear beautiful sisters of water, you're saying CBN Naira knows rebranding why now. I am not against the rebranding of the Naira notes, but it is proper. But is it proper? It happens now. We have other problems that are more important to solve rather than Naira notes. We can tackle this later. Now, C dollar has risen from 755 Naira to almost 785 Naira, according to your guess. Please let us set our priorities right. I rest my case for now. My name is Daniel Ilo. You're always regular fan. Take your comments. Okay, we have someone saying wrong timing at this time. To me, the policy may be well conceived one, but the timing going by realities on ground is very wrong. As the Naira may fall to as low as 1000 Naira to a US dollar before January 31st, 2023. What be Kennedy, Jalingo, Taraba state? Also, somebody sent a message saying the CBN act was changed under our Basonjo. The CBN is independent of the finance ministry. It helps in stopping the payment of resume money. I don't know what he meant by resume. It helps in stopping the payment of resume money. But then again, like we said, they are targeting themselves. And because we're playing, no, we all know this way. We've been Nigerians for way too long not to understand how they play the game. We know politics. We know how they want to mop up your funds because where you are banking, the cash is not going to be available to them. Do you understand the logic? When they say the banks will get it on a first come first serve basis. So if I am a candidate and I know that your bank that you've invested in or that you have a directorship is so we won't make it available to you. So how are you going to bribe the people you want to buy votes from? They are playing a game of chess with one another. We're not involved. We don't have the money. We're not involved. It didn't consign us. It didn't really consign us. Let's leave our guests because they are fine out of time. Go ahead. It's early days. Let's give it time. The rabbit will be out of the hat very soon. Is that all you want to say? Because for those of you who kept Naira and you are abroad, you have some time to bring it back into the country and make sure it enters a Nigerian bank or else that your money will become tissue paper. Naira is the actual makeup tender Naira. That's true. When we travel abroad and we say, let me keep 50K when I come back into the country. What is 50K? I will not mention the gold. I remember they travel with boxes of cash. Of course. Now I am on big meat on that. It is big meat to hit home. Let me hear your final thoughts. Well, final thoughts. I think there are farmers on ground to catch the rabbit. If it comes out of the hat, you guys will come out of the hat and say, we will catch it. Are you serious? If it comes out of the hat, you will catch it. Why don't you say something quickly? Because real estate, are you trying to say to me now that with the current situation, because I have heard the EFCC boss say that most of the industries now, real estate is one of the key industries for laundering money and all of that, since they already know these things. And if this is one of the the motive behind this, why are they not just going directly to, is it something that they cannot Well, as some very renowned journalists would say, the answer to that question is flying. In the way. In the way. There is no or not amongst these. The truth is, real estate is, it's not just Nigeria. It's a global phenomenon. There is no law against how much you sell your property. Hence, all money that bears no character can find a home in your one bedroom or your mansion. Okay. I have a one bedroom apartment for sale. You can tell it for two billion. It's going for two billion. Now you're talking. Now you're talking. I have bank accounts. It's a buyer and seller market. It's based on purchasing powers and the perceived value from the asset. But this is the thing that messes up an economy. But that's actually what drives the economy. We are not part of this conversation. They know themselves. In terms of prices or supply, it has its downside. And then when the demand also is also regulated, it has its downside. So basically you let the natural forces of demand and supply take its course, which is where we're also struggling with the CBN. And when we talk about FX price, Lera price to the dollar, CBN says it should be around 413, 420. The market is saying, you know, it should be 740 to... Before we go, we are not... Thank you, Debo. Thank you, Abiodum. By the way, they didn't plan the outfit. I'm telling you. This is not black. This is midnight blue. But it doesn't come with that. It was just the shirt I was looking at. So they didn't plan it. So we're going to take them out for dinner. And again, him are doing our call on the bottom left. Before we go, I show you followers on all social media platforms at Weishu Africa. You can interact with us further. Drop a comment and more importantly, follow all our engagements. Like, share, and invite your families and friends to watch and follow the conversation. Now, if you missed our quotes for today, here it is again. There is no answer in the available literature to the question why a government monopoly of the provision of money is universally regarded as indisputable. It has defects of all monopolies. I leave it to you to go and decipher. We'll see you guys live on Monday at 8 p.m. As we bring another great conversation. Thank you so much.