 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network It is a smorgasbord Friday here on covering the spread We already touched on a Friday's play-in games in the NBA with Tom Vecchio yesterday We talked about the NBA playoffs series as well with Tom got some player props for Saturday So today we're talking about the EPL. We're talking about MLB for Friday and NASCAR in Martinsville It's gonna be a blast here to break it down with me Is Austin Cass will talk EPL and then dive in too much more later on this is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast Network and number fire calm. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire joined here as mentioned by Austin Cass You can find him on Twitter at Austin Cass He is a senior editor for a number fire You can find his work over at number fire Austin you are fresh off a vacation looking good. How you doing today? I'm doing really well. How are you? I am great ready to talk about some EPL because we've been making momentum We've been we've been making some strides You left us with some really good recommendations for the NCAA tournament. So I've been deprived of Austin I know we need vacations, but how selfish of you to leave on a heater and deprive me of your knowledge very rude Yeah, I'm sorry I did feel like we were moving in the direction of you gaining interest in the Premier League and then the weekend I left was We probably would have talked about Liverpool Arsenal and that ended up being one of the most entertaining games of the season so far So it was bad timing. It's okay We're gonna bounce back here match week 31 and break down that and get awesome thoughts on the same repents across this weekend And then dig into MLB and NASCAR But first a quick reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We of course are an Apple podcast Spotify stitcher Google podcasts. You name it You can find us there and while you're there if you like what you hear Leave us a rating interview. We are here every weekday breaking down MLB NBA, etc Etc everything you could possibly walk in at one place, but let's start things off for today by talking about the EPL It is a seven game slate on Saturday, Austin Pretty big slate pretty big offering here anything stand out to you at Fandall's sportsbook as far as Betsy Want to lock in for today So there's two props that I'd like to talk about the first one is in the very first match of the day Aston Villa at Newcastle. It's a 730 start, which is obviously early for us here in the States But I'm on Alexander Isaac to score or assist in that match Which is minus 1 15 Isaac has really seized the number nine role for Newcastle lately and they've been on fire playing as well as anyone in the league As a team they've scored at least twice in five straight matches Isaac's been a huge part of that He's got five goals over his last five appearances and he's got at least one goal in four of the last five games He's also taken a penalty in that time. So that's a huge boost for this prop So even though even though this is a far from easy matchup by Aston Villa I like Isaac to score or assist at minus 115. Yeah again minus 115 That's the Aston Villa versus Newcastle match to begin things on Saturday Isaac minus 115 in that market. It's under the goal score market over at Fandall Sportsbooks You mentioned there are two props you like that's the first one with Isaac. What's the second one you're eyeing here The other one is in the Manchester City Leicester City match Which is at 1230 tomorrow. So a little better timing wise for us This is one this is Julian Alvarez to score any time goal scorer minus 115 And I'll throw the caveat out that he doesn't usually start so I would wait until lineups come out Which is going to be at 1130 Eastern time Make sure he's in there this match for City They're obviously huge favorites. I think minus 600 last I saw This is the same as between two Champions League corner final matchups with Bayern Munich They just played one last week and they're going to play another one mid a week next week So I think they might rest early in Holland Which would likely result in Alvarez getting a start So when he's had opportunities this year, he's been really great He's got seven Premier League goals over seven starts and he's averaging 0.73 goals per 90 minutes Leicester is probably going to be overwhelmed against City. So as long as he starts, this is a bet I want to make I just want to make sure he's confirmed as a starter before I place the bet and those starters are confirmed 60 minutes before the kickoff there for those So that's Julian Alvarez minus 115 when it comes to these teams that are playing in the UCL and they've got these really big matches Do we tend to see them play things a bit more conservatively on the EPL side when they have those going on? It just depends City have a lot to play for in the Premier League. They're in the tight title race with Arsenal right now So they're not going to rest too many guys I wouldn't think but having such an easy matchup gives them a chance to do that a little bit They could bring Holland in off the bench if they wanted to If a team maybe say like if Chelsea they are still in the Champions League, but I believe they're 11th in the Premier League They don't have anything to play for in the Premier League So this weekend we can see them really rest a lot of their guys because They're really the opportunity cost doesn't really matter much for them in the Premier League right now So with Man City still a lot on the line here But some like Holland may potentially rest which held up some more minutes for Alvarez He is minus 115 to score a goal for Man City against Leicester on Saturday and you mentioned the the 730 game for you. That's your East Coast time or I don't know Indiana Falls, okay? We're in the Midwest it goes back and forth like that. Yeah, okay. Yeah Yeah, so you've got kids you're probably up to like 430 just like, you know Harassing you at all times. Yes. I will be up in time for that game Okay, good So you know a sandwich here with the the game at 730 the game at 1230 between the Alvarez goal and then the ESAC Goal or assist for the Aston Villa versus Newcastle match couple matches on Sunday as well Austin To in that one West Ham versus Arsenal and then Nottingham Forest against Manchester United When you look at those two matches specifically on Sunday anything you like across those at Fandle Yeah, I'm intrigued by both of the underdogs is specifically Nottingham Forest against Manchester United And I'm gonna be taking Forest and draw in the double chance market at plus 115 Forests are absolutely in desperation mode as they try to avoid relegation and getting anything from this match would be used for them And I think there's reasons to think they can get at least a draw They've been really good at home this year. They've lost just once over their last 11 home league matches A span that includes a draw against Manchester City and a win over Liverpool. So they've played well against good teams United Meanwhile have been pretty subpar away from home They're just 14th in a way goal differential this season at minus 12 and they've won only six of their 14 road matches on top of that they just played Thursday last night in the Europa League and So forest is gonna have the rest advantage and not only did United play in that game But they lost both of their center backs. They exited early due to injury and they probably I'm guessing will not be able to play This weekend They're also gonna be without Marcus Raffford who's their top goal scorer He's got 15 league goals while no other United player has more than five So he's gonna be a big miss. It's basically we have a team in In force that's been really good at home a team in United that hasn't been good away from home and United's gonna be Have a big rest disadvantage and be short-handed. So I think there's a lot of reasons to think forest can get at least a draw from this game So again, that's the double chance market noddingham forest and draw is plus 115 right now Over at vandal sports because this is a market you go to often where you get to group two different outcomes together or Is it more so in specific circumstances like this where you think they need that point? They're gonna fight for whatever they can to get at least that Yeah, it's it's more so the latter especially I kind of like this market for bigger underdogs You're not taking quite as big of a swing on betting on them to win But uh, it's still a plus money number and this number is actually plus 125 last night before united had their two injuries so I wish I could have come on yesterday and had people make this bet before that but uh, yeah, I really like this market for them and Like the name of the markets double chance. So yeah, I feel pretty good about forest tomorrow Yeah, so that's plus 115 right now as you mentioned for noddingham forest against Manchester united That is a sunday match. So you can find that right there and uh, I do like the the bundling of things together there It's kind of like in each way in golf where you split up your your bet You're gonna get money if they finish, you know They have you have the outright if they do get that but then also some on top three and stuff like that as well So it's nice to get some person. Yeah to get a little bit there podium bets or NASCAR stuff like that All right, that is austin cas make sure you check him out on uh, twitter at austin cas find his work over at number five He doesn't have full uh, betting primer up for match week 31 find that over on the website austin It is a pleasure to have you back excited to have you back in the mix And good luck to you this weekend Thank you. Appreciate it. Have a good weekend. Thank you. Same to you check out austin again on twitter at austin cas Again, if you want to read the version of the betting guide, that is over on number fire Of the epl match week 31 We're gonna dive in talk some baseball for friday and some NASCAR martinsville in one second But first the nba playoffs are here and you can turn crossovers into cash with fan duel Just visit fan duel right now and place a five dollar bet and you'll get an instant 150 bucks in bonus bets win or elutes There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than america's number one sports book Just go to fan duel and sign up to get a hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet your first five dollars Fan duel official sports betting partner of the nba must be 21 plus in president select states Fan duel is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement with the kansas star casino llc Bonus issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Restrictions apply c terms at sportsbook dot fan duel dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Or is it fan duel dot com slash rg hope is here in in massachusetts call or go to gambling helpline ma dot org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 For 24 7 support in new york 1877 8 hope and wire text open y In arizona 1800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 Or is it ccp g dot org slash chat in indiana 1809 with it in wyoming in kansas 1 100 5 2 2 4700 or in kansas ks gambling health dot com louisiana is 1 in 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop In maryland mb gambling health dot org and in west virginia go to 1800 gambler dot net Let's shift focus now and talk about some major league baseball for today got a full 15 games on the slate today Across major league baseball. There are four money lines. I like and then there are a couple strikeout props I want to bet assuming they have not moved since I was looking at things earlier on today The first money line is going to be for the angels and the red socks I like the the red socks money line at plus 104 and I know this can be Tough mentally after having watched the red socks boot balls across the yard all day yesterday Their defense sucks and that matters a lot as we saw in that game. It's an abomination But my model does account for defense And it knows that they suck and it does still show value on them here The one hesitation I have is that It could be a bigger issue with their defense today because hannah hawke is a ground ball pitcher He is our starter for today, but hawke is look good to open this year He's getting stretched out uh from being largely in the bullpen last year It seems like that transition for him has not been too difficult. So I'm accounting for the defense here. I know the defense is bad I know it's going to probably continue to be bad until they get some, you know new guys in there But I've got the red socks win odds at 58 percent up from 49 percent implied It's possible. I'm underselling how big of a detriment it is to have bobby doll back at shortstop and stuff like that, but I think this number is overselling it a bit So, uh, it's a bit dramatic plus 104 the number on the red socks money line I know it can be tough mentally to click to to click that given the way things have gone Given the way they may continue to go until they get a solution in there for the defense But I do think this number may be overselling things a little bit It's the red socks plus 104 the first money line Second one I want to go to is the twins at plus 160 against the yankees full disclosure here I grew up a twins fan. So Uh, if you want to be skeptical totally justified, but that is not factored into the number here My model is a twins win odds at 44.9 percent versus 38.5 percent So still not you still favoring the Yankees for sure. They're 55 percent to win, but Pretty well above market here on the twins They're spreading louis varland was supposed to be tyler malley initially, but malley pushed back one day Varland not a ton of experience in the majors a five-star sample last year And he did pitch pretty well 4.14 skill interactive eray So That wasn't bad not a bad debut for varland actually did make his first art a Yankee stadium last year as well Twins missing some key pieces. I don't think Jorge Palacio or max kelp will be back yet They are on a rehab assignment right now. So they wanted them But Byron buxton did play in a last night's game edward julienne made his debut as well Which was pretty nice. So despite being down some key pieces still a decent twins offense We saw last night where they went bananas facing nester cortez cortez had that stretch last year where he was Unreal shutting everyone down hasn't been quite the same since then My number is due to humans being pretty good 3.82 skill interactive eray. It is nine starts at fewer sliders That's a pretty good number But twins very good against lefties even with their all the injuries they've had Um, I think varland might be a bit undersold by this number So twins at plus 160 is not the money line one to go to even though I do the Yankees favored by my numbers The next one does depend on where you're shopping right now fandal sportsbook has the orials at minus 110 To beat the white socks you can get them as low as minus 105 elsewhere So take a look at available books try to identify the best spot, but I think the orials Regardless of where they're at at your book are a value based on my numbers I have a 62 to win which is probably a bit high. Uh, that might be a bit high But direct directionally, I agree with what the model is saying I've got them That high in large part because I'm skeptical of my clevenger clevenger in the first two starts is a good eray The underlying data is really rough and in a two-start sample I will always trust the underlying data more so than the results now underlying data doesn't stabilize across two starts either because strikeouts typically take about 50 or so plate appearances stabilize walks 60 to 70 ground ball rates around 80 balls and play I believe and we're not there yet for most of those so he could be A guy where the underlying data is underselling and because it is a small sample, but his expected eray is really really high and I trust that more than what the the current numbers are saying He's not getting whist right now is his swinging strike rates are on seven percent Opposing batters are making pretty quality contact. So maybe at the two-start blip. Maybe clevenger is Pitching as well as what the results have said I'm skeptical right now and that does put me on the Orioles here. I also think Tyler Wells is pretty okay as a pitcher so Shop around on baltimore try to find what you can get there Minus 105. I think is the best number you can get there has been some movement towards the white socks here Maybe we'll see more of that but I'm comfortable with the Orioles right now Minus 110 at fan dual sportsbook buying into this Orioles offense selling clevenger from what he's done so far And get exposure to them via that the final money line for me today Is it a seven o'clock game? That's a guardians. They are favorite at minus 154 against the nationals I think that should be a bit. I've got the guardians at 64.8 to win the implied odds here at minus 154 60.6 percent Facing trevor williams who is back in a starting role Hasn't looked superb so far. There is a reason he'd been shifted to a more secondary long relief role in other spots So he struggled there cal quantral starting for the guardians has not been lights out either But the guardians have an elite bullpen. They have an elite defense behind him And those things can help negate a more mid-tier starting pitcher the guardians Were very high my power rankings before the year started They have fallen down From there from where they initially were due to some injuries and stuff like that But they have not fallen to the point where I don't want to bet them as a modest favorite against a rough opponent So the guardians minus 154 the final money line I want to take again buying into a team. I like coming into this year facing a pretty rough team I think that makes a lot of sense. So the money lines and then they'll be today I like the red sox plus 104 twins plus 160 Orioles shop around for the best number But minus 110 if annual sportsbook and the guardians of minus 154 against the nationals Couple of strikeout props. I have not rechecked these since we started recording So don't know if they are still where they were earlier on today The first one I want to check on though is in the blue jays versus the rays game Jose barrios is starting here for the blue jays and facing a team with a lot of lefties And under four and a half strikeouts for barrios is plus 104 I think that is a very fine number in one. I am willing to take my model as barrios projected for 4.28 strikeouts here. So Pretty tough to pass up plus money on the under barrios is a guy Who thread his career honestly a struggle quite a bit with lefties and the rays Between their switch hitters like wander franco and all their lefties I would bet they roll out a pretty lefty heavy lineup for tonight They've got lau and low. They've got luke rayley in there. They can plug in They've got a lot of lefties they can turn to if they see a guy like barrios who struggles versus lefties Barrios has had that issue for a while, but now looking at the early data in 2023 Seems like the issue is maybe bleeding over into what he does against righties too So eventually we will see the rays cool off. You can't win every game in a majorly baseball season So they're gonna cool off eventually, but they are a a good team Against righties. They've got a lot of lefties take advantage of barrios's issues I'm fine continuing to buy into them via this market So I like barrios under four and a half strikeouts plus 104 right now at vandal sportsbook I think that is a very fair number if you want to buy into the rays sell barrios's struggles without Getting two out over your skis with regards to the blue jays The second strikeout problem to check on here is in the pirates versus cardinals game and right now Jake woodford over three and a half strikeouts is minus 104 I will say if you go to other books, I believe you can still get over two and a half It's at like minus 200 So I'd rather go with the three and a half at minus 104 personally But would look around see what you can get on woodford because potentially could get a better number somewhere else But um, I have woodford woodford projected for 4.26 strikeouts here He has struggled across his first two starts from a results perspective But despite those struggles still three strikeouts and five strikeouts again, the number here is three and a half 95 pitched for woodford in his first start. So He is fully stretched out the pirates active roster that he'll face today 23.9 Strikeout rating versus righty since the start of last year So 3.5 not a big number for woodford. Um He is a low strikeout guy. He's transitioning to being a starter from being a reliever in the past So there are a lot of reasons to be skeptical, but it's a low number He's stretched out facing a high strikeout team that does struggle and is without their best hitter right now So I do think that the over here is very in play. So strikeout props barrios under four and a half at Plus 104 shop around on that one too because there he was plus 120 earlier on this morning at some other spots And then woodford over three and a half at minus 104, which you can find right now at vandal sports book That's gonna wrap up baseball for today But do you still want to talk some nascar here because we have uh all three series in action in martinsville For this weekend in the cup series looking for value here We had shades elliott added to the entry list and when he was added Didn't see a lot of guys lengthened So it's a pretty tough market to bet into right now not seeing a whole lot that I like The one bet that I like that I want to highlight here Isn't the top 10 market for martinsville in the nascar cup series That's eric elmerola at plus 230 Uh the implied odds there 30 i have elmerola at 36 to finish inside the top 10 We talk about elmerola a lot on short flat tracks And martinsville fits in that description. It is not his best track in this track type by any means He's better at phoenix. I think he's a little better at a lot better new hampshire as well So it's not his best track within this track type But it has still been a track where he's been inside the top 10 With pretty decent regularity. He's been to martinsville 10 times since joining steward haas racing in those 10 times elmerola Five top 10 so a 50 rate again the implied odds here are 30 percent And he's not the same driver that he was earlier on because steward haas racing has fallen off a bit But last year elmerola one top 10 finished in two races a decent average running position in both those races too So he's been struggling so far this year on the short flats In phoenix had an issue richman didn't run that great But phoenix he was working his way through the pack before a tire issue Ruined his day. I think that he would have at least pushed for a top 10 Had that kind of flaky tire issue not happened So i'm not as worried about the the four. Maybe I should be more worried, but Plus 230 for a top 10. I think it's a very fair price. So in the cup series the one The one top 10 that I want to lock in is eric alberola at plus 230 with practice of that set for tomorrow morning Shifting focus now and talking about the nascar xfinity series. I'm very close to value on cool, uh, cool custer He is plus 750 right out vandal sportsbook I I haven't had exactly 11.8. So i'm right in line at the market there, but that's not value So if you find custer longer than plus 750 I would take a look at that because I do think that is intriguing I do like outside of fandal. You can find these at william hill shops. They have top 5s for the xfinity series I do like brandon jones top 5 at plus 160 I have jones in the top 5 41 of the time is implied out there 38.5 So it's a small edge, but it is enough if you can get jones outright at 12 to 1 or longer He is 10 to 1 at fandal. I believe he's or he's 11 1 of fandal He has shortened to 10 to 1 at some other spots if you can find him at 12 to 1 still I did take 12 to 1 either yesterday or wednesday. I believe it's yesterday. So Maybe there's still a 12 out there on jones I would rather take the top 5 because to get top 5 does need to beat out all of John hunter nema check chandler and sammy smith Justin all guy or all these guys were very good on this track type So I prefer jones top 5 plus 160 good value for me decent value for me If you can get 12 to 1 I think that is intriguing the kind of the one outright I want to place but for outright xfinity series not seeing a whole lot for this week The final one Is the nascar truck series the craftsman truck series that is going to be on I believe this is They're practicing today. I think that the race for that is either tonight or tomorrow Either way my favorite two bets of this weekend are both in the nascar truck series The first one is an outright. It's the only outright. I want to lock in for this week That is ross chastain who is for some reason h1 to win a fan dual sports book. I haven't met 24 to win I'm way above market. That's very scary Usually if you are way off in the market, you're the dummy the market is correct And I know that and I'm scared having this much value on ross chastain His implied win odds 11 percent at h1 a fan dual sports book The reason my numbers are high are a bunch He's driving for niece motorsports who has some rough drivers and they're stable But you know cars and hosts of ours a good driver and he is competitive in these trucks So if cars and hosts of our can be competitive in a niece truck Why would we not expect ross chastain to be that? hosts of ours went on sleek 41 and in large part because Kyle bush and chastain are in the field, but He is competitive on this track tide. So I expect chastain to be the same Chastain at circuity the america is running the same truck. He I think maybe because I had bet him there too I think he was on track to win that race But had a fuel pump issue had some pit strategy break against him And he went to finishing inside the top five still But had the potential to win that one against cow bush against zane smith and all those guys This number 24 percent for me on chastain is not because my model is underselling cow bush It has done that at times, but I've got bush at 45.7 percent to win this race So with that much win equity going to cow bush. I feel a bit better about having chastain up at 24 percent Looking at this one I think we just kind of take it uh chastain eight to one. I think it's too long So ross chastain eight to one the one outright I like for nascar across all three series for this week The other bet I really like here steward freason top five at plus 220 you can find this At william hill books the implied odds at plus 220 or 31.3 percent. I've got freason at 41 percent And in the top five freason doesn't at the top doesn't have to top cow bush ross chastain And he's a guy who tends to run really well on short tracks. He is a dirt racer Which doesn't really apply super well to martin zilks It is a single group track and stuff like that But freason has had good runs here in the past the zane smith one of the other contenders Doesn't tend to run as well on short tracks. He doesn't big tracks. He's more mortal on this track type So time of jeski very good here. I do my model likes him a lot and I like him as well But freason I think is undervalued So plus 220 top five for steward freason Is my second favorite bet this week followed by or preceded by the chastain outright at eight to one So again two favorite bets me this week both in the truck series chastain eight to one freason Plus 220 to finish inside the top five other ones. I'm looking at Brandon jones top five in the extremity series at plus 160 and eric almirola top 10 at plus 230 In the cup series as I said a lot of stuff covered here today on covering the spread want to give a big Thank you once again to austin cast for swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on the epl Check out austin on twitter at austin cast and find his work over at number fire I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m S a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Again, if you want some some mba playoff talk check that out on yesterday's show With tom vecchio broke down the playing games tonight and the playoff series beginning saturday including Some player props for those find that on the covering the spread podcast feed hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating as well I hope you all have fantastic weekends. Good luck to you with your bets. We'll talk to you once again on monday This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network