 What's up guys this is Alps from Rex Trades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list I hope everybody had a wonderful weekend. We had a pretty amazing week last week I mean just crazy volatility in the markets able to catch them downside with puts and Take profit on that and also we had a huge rally on Friday, which honestly I didn't even participate in but that doesn't mean We can't participate in it this week. So let's go ahead and get in our first setup here We're looking at fdx and I really like fdx here because you do have a back test of resistance We're trying to make new support here to have your main resistance making a base and making support And this is a nice little candle. So ideally we're gonna see it run up to this trend line here We'll probably find resistance about there and if you go down in the four hour I mean same thing to be looking for about that level to hit, you know It's not a huge price target or anything But we need to see how it will react to the trend line, you know before saying it's gonna go any higher So that's our first setup just really nice back test of the break here If you don't know this is just a classic break and retest strategy So you got your breakout comes back test makes a base off old resistance and that's your setup So it's just a nice little easy one Stop loss obviously be under 184.39 so that you know, it would be slightly under this If you really want to go under this low this candle here that would work too next we're going into WMT So this is Walmart. I really like this one It's holding the bottom of the man very well made a nice base off the 200 EMA here Oh, and by the way, we are looking at calls on fdx. We're looking for upside obviously WMT We're also looking for calls. I forgot to mention that we're gonna cause and that is totally in the bottom of the man opening a really nice base Finally was able to pop back over the 200 EMA after having you know one day break under Probably spooked a lot of people to be honest once the stock leaves it loses your daily 200 That's a really good reason to start selling But it was a fake out because it did hold the bottom of demand. So it looks good Ideally though, I want to see a reclaim over this 140 which comes from this little base right here So you want to see it get over 140 head back up into the upper trend line We're probably fine resistance about there and you also have your daily 50 EMA right here So you will need to keep it keep an eye on that as well. So you can use that as a price target You don't have to just use the trend line. Yeah, we're gonna cause on that I just think it looks really nice minus the fact that it is forming a descending triangle Which is a bearish pattern your stop loss would be under 138 28 and that would be Your max risk because if it did break under, you know, the demands of them Well, there's a good chance it could flush under, you know Try to make a base off, you know old support make new resistance and flush to the downside And you can see this little volume pocket here on the volume profile This is kind of like looking a little gappy. So if there's not much holding up here I mean, obviously it can fill up this area pretty quick and flush So that's why you'd want it to hold this general high volume area, which is also your demand zone So yeah, we're gonna cause on that. So FDX linear calls WMT also looking at calls next We're going into Walgreens. So it's a ticker symbol WBA There's also holding a drop base rallied demand zone starts off with a selling So it's got a drop creates a base rally to the upside and that would be a drop base rally demand zone So I really like these because they are countertrend And you are buying at lows. So you do kind of get a discount on premiums Assuming that you snipe the right entry one thing you will want to see WBA do here You can see our I already added an alert You just right-click at alert and then, you know, we could put breakout and wait for that to hit Oh, you can see it's kind of like a wedge. I wouldn't say it's like the cleanest wedge or anything Because it's kind of, you know, why but it is holding this uptrend line Which is pretty important. So you got test one test two came down close to test three I would still count it also holding your drop base rally demand Which comes from this base candle and next we're gonna see a break out of this uptrend line So that's two retail, you know, two retail trades to keep an eye on WMT and WBA. We do have Microsoft earnings this week and we have a bunch of others So look, we got a bunch of big oil names. So you got SLB. You got J&J, Verizon, Microsoft, IBM Tesla, Tesla would be a huge one. So, I mean, you just got crazy earnings this week You got MasterCard, Visa, CVX, another big oil American Express. So I mean, you could just see this this week can be a pretty big market mover Assuming that these stocks do go ahead and have huge moves from earnings So we're gonna have to be careful with that. Another thing that we do have coming is the PCE Which is a little bit different than CPI. This is the Fed's number one preferred indicator And they do prefer over CPI and if you go to the St. Louis Fed website, they also claim that as well So it's just something to keep an eye out. Next, we're gonna go into Billy So this ticker's gonna be ILI. This is a Chinese ticker You can see it's breaking the uptrend here kind of like a rising wedge You got test one, test two, test three, breaking down the fourth and you got your daily 200 EMA here Ideally, we're gonna see it get under the 200 EMA and come back down to your supports. Your next supports would be 2228 and also 2048 and that comes from this base. That comes from this base So Billy, you're gonna want to see it go ahead and fall down from here I will be looking at puts on this because I have to break the uptrend line so that, you know Does confirm our bear bias. Next we're going into BABA. So I really like this one for puts again So this is another Chinese ticker obviously. The thing where this differs from Billy is that BABA does have Ernie's coming up So, you know, they could have different movement You can see BABA's had a pretty pretty strong rally compared to Billy where it's starting to sell off And if you go back to Billy here, you can see that Blackrock did trim their position Trim their position to only 4.96% according to their Hong Kong exchange filing So I thought that was interesting But the thing with BABA here is pulling into a one week supply and what kind of supplies this Is the rally base drop supply zone that just creates a rally makes the base super strong selling to the downside And now it's finally testing this general area. So we're going to be looking for resistance about here Could get through supply test the top of the area find resistance about there But this general area is what you're going to be looking for resistance So if you do get, you know resistance right away on cash open Monday You do have a good case for taking an entry there just because you know you are in the supply And it could curl down and head back down to you know this little daily demand candle right here So it'd probably be about 110 or something Ideally I'm going to be looking at day trades on this just because earnings is coming up Billy, you know, maybe you could look at a swing trade because you know They don't have earnings coming up so you wouldn't really be like gambling on an earnings report They're both kind of different but looking at puts on both and they are both Chinese companies Next we're going to go into the spot. So last week so last week we're looking at this downtrend line from all-time highs To current and you can see we're looking for resistance either there or we're looking for a breakout So we did go ahead and get the resistance for a few days You can see Tuesday found a small resistance didn't really have a big red day But the next day we did sell off about you know 1.5 percent And then even had follow-through with another about 1% move down But it only closed down 0.73 percent So I mean this move from the trend line did produce negative 3.21 percent move from that high down to that low So there's about a 3% sell off just in two days, which is I mean pretty crazy I mean we did have the 200 EMA in the way on the daily We also had the downtrend line in the way so we're looking for resistance on that obviously Or breakout but it did confirm the resistance. So I mean it gave a really good entry for puts I was already in them from last week So I just you know I had a little draw down maybe minus 17% or something on the contracts But it did end up following through to the downside and I think it paid about You know 50% or something made like $400 a pop. So really nice this week I don't have any new swing trade positions yet So I'm going to be looking carefully and hopefully find something new But yeah, so first buy here pretty much the same as last week You know, we're only a little bit down further from where we were when we covered this last week So obviously, you know, it's forming that kind of like a wedge You got the uptrend line here that's holding and you also have the downtrend line that hasn't broke out of yet You know, and what does that set you up for sets you up for chop We're going to see it do something it could either break that way or break that way That's how symmetrical wedges work. They are bilateral So you don't really know until you get the confirmed breakout But um, I mean you are trading under your daily 200, but then you get this massive bullish candle from Friday I mean that's pretty much indicating that August came through And they wanted to buy and they chased it higher So but the main resistance to break this week along with the downtrend line for bulls Obviously, it's just 400 flat or 423 which is that high And then also that would take you up to 410 49 Which is the same level we covered last week if it was able to break out or can you get up to 410 49? So same thing as last week, but you are on the switch. Be careful of the range. Maybe wait for a breakout. All right, and qqq So pretty similar. Um, I mean to spy it's running up into the downtrend line You do want to see it either break out or reject here You might have a couple more a couple more points before it actually taps the line You can see the volume profile here. This is the point of control We haven't cleared it yet so that I mean that could be setting up for sales for all we know So we do want to get over the point of control Which is this line This is the highest volume pocket and you can see if it gets over that There's a little bit less of volume over here and it could give you free space up to 296 So you really want to see you get over the point of control as well as you know Break out of the downtrend line. You don't really have an uptrend line holding you up or anything The uptrend line originally was this you can see it broke down Made a double bottom and wasn't able to reclaim so I mean, I guess you could keep that there Although once, you know, it breaks through I kind of I kind of just get rid of the line because it, you know, it could be invalid I mean, I don't think algorithms really care, you know, the if they see it reclaimed, they're gonna buy They, you know, so you go back down. They're gonna, you know, regardless if it's chopping through through it or not So that's just one thing to keep in mind. I guess it's more like an OCD thing for me You know, it does kind of like invalidate my analysis a little bit if it does, you know, break through You know, you're going to want to be looking for something fresh and new after that looking for a new trend to form Rather than an old one that's been broken through. So, yeah, QQQ Um, same thing. You just want to see it either rejected at the downtrend line Or you're going to want to see it break out and get up to 296 88 So no setup at the moment Your one clear line of resistance that does need to get over is 284 69 Which is this uh, this little high from the sell-off and once that gets over I mean that could give you a pretty big move So I mean you could even go down to the one hour comes from this right here So that 284 definitely needs to get broken over because I mean just look at this crazy selling balance just from you know Rejecting off that area. Next we're going into the IWM So last week we wanted to see it pull up in the supply So if you look at puts and it pulled up in the supply was able to do that So this was it's one that's one rejection. That's two three. This was its fourth rejection And that just gave you a crazy move to the downside along, you know What the other index is and you can see just how perfect the supply was So hopefully I mean if you'll keep track of the IWM you mark that supply zone and you know took puts when it got there Because that was a really nice trade now It's kind of like it's almost like forming an interesting Cup and handler inverse head and shoulders or something. I mean you can just see it right now If it was able to do that that'd be pretty bullish But obviously it would have to get over the supply. So that's your supply I'd have to get over that you know to validate any trend like that So, but I mean it's interesting setup. It's just it's not confirmed yet. So you don't really know So if our IWM this week, obviously, um, you're just going to see it get over the 189 86 Which is also the supply. Um, I can even read the supply here So yeah, I need to get over that 189 86 and uh, that could give you some good bullish momentum If it was able to get over that otherwise, I'm feeling more bearish neutral here until it gets over that It does have if you look at this candle, I mean from friday just crazy bullish, you know That does give you a good case for a small run up to this and that would be good for like a day trade on calls That's about as far as I can put you for now. Um, I need to see that supply get taken out Maybe even form more of the cup and handle giving you a more of a clear signal for bulls But otherwise, I mean you could keep, you know, stop and put to the supply Maybe look at a swing trade or something But yeah, I mean just wait for the pattern to form wait for the supply to get taken out Also, if you wanted to take puts, you know, wait for supply to tap So you do want to wait for the supply and see what it does there first Otherwise, you know, you do have a small range of two supply that you can maybe trade like I said earlier Just that little, you know, free space in that selling balance area back up to supply Next we're going into the vix so the vix last week had a, you know, pretty interesting week per usual It's really just been chopping this range, but uh, hasn't been the greatest indicator of volatility lately to be honest It really just depends like some days. It'll, you know, it'll really help you kind of put things into perspective and You know, if it's selling off pretty hard, you know, usually you're going to see a rally, you know, just like friday sold off 3% We saw, you know, about a 1.5% move to the upside on the spy Yeah, I mean, we really need to see it getting out of this downtrend line So you get this short term downtrend line here If you're bearish, you do want to see a get back over that that maybe give it, you know A good little hint of volatility is coming back and it could have back up for, you know, mean regression back to the 2022 to 2023 Average close. Otherwise, we're going to want to see it make a base and make support off 20s holding over 20s again Otherwise, you know, it could go lower So your main level right now to get under if you're, you know bullish on stocks You do want to see get back under the the $18 low here and then you do have support, you know here at 1895 Which comes from this base, you know, that does bring you down to 1634 which comes from over here And that's what makes that little, you know, that free space I'll even draw so you can see this little free space It can take you down to the 1634, which is the previous low But otherwise, just make sure, um, if you are, you know, bearish on stocks You do want to see a breaking out of this and reclaiming 20, you know If you're bullish, you do want to see it getting under the 18 mark Really to just simplify what I was explaining and then I can also show you the data here So this is the 2022 to 2023 average close Last week is at 2552 after this, uh, these four trading days and to drop it down to 2542 And you can see that I'm sorry 2544. So a drop down from 2552 to 2544 So volatility is trending lower. The moving average is going lower. The average close is going lower So volatility is very cheap right now, which means options are pretty cheap Next we're going to go into the dx y this is the dollar index So it actually sold off a little bit more, um, but it is holding that same like, you know That base that we covered last week at 10129. Uh, so we do want to see it, you know, make a move from here If you do want to see, you know, more movement in the market If you're bullish on stocks, you definitely want the dollar to get under this If you're bearish, you do want to see it holding up here making a base and heading back up to, you know, the You know, the 102 is 103s But otherwise I still have this, uh, man Covid peak from 2020 on watch here I just think this is a huge level and I think it's really big that we're, you know, finally under it And it didn't it barely even held up like once we got there it Maybe lasted a couple days try to make a base and then it just fell right through like it didn't even matter I think this level is huge because this is when, you know, the dollar peaked in 2020 at its highest level before selling off So ideally, you know, same thing as last week You just you want to see it making a, you know, a monthly base So by the end of january, you do want to see it holding over this. Um, if the monthly candle close is under I mean that'd be pretty good for stocks I think short term maybe even on a long-term basis for a long-term basis, obviously that depends on the fed And their monetary policy how much more they're gonna keep raising how longer they're gonna keep Interest rates up, etc And if you guys didn't know the federal reserve doesn't have a meeting february 1st So it's coming up pretty soon And you know with all these earnings coming up like we just went over, you know, you got your microsoft You know tesla all those big ones following up into the federal reserve meeting This could be a big pretty big couple of weeks for the stock market So just make sure your trade's safe all over the setups one more time. So fdx we're looking at calls Wnt we're looking at calls wba looking at calls Billy and baba two chinese names looking at puts because they're you know, are getting into overbought conditions The indexes, I mean, you can see that we're waiting for the breakout qqq We're waiting for the breakout or rejection for both iwm waiting to get over that supply vx You want to see under 18 or you want to see it back over 20 dx y you do want to see over 102 99 Which is the covet peak if you're you know, bearish on stocks You do want to see it reclaiming that also if you're bullish you do want it to get under that one to 129 Which is this base and that would be good for the stock bulls. I hope you guys enjoyed this video I love you guys. Make sure you like comment and subscribe to our extra youtube channel I'm over ahead and end this and I'll get it uploaded and edited and chopped up So love you guys tap into the next one