 Hi guys, Wednesday the 5th of June just coming up to 8 o'clock here in London I hope everyone has had a good good rest and ready for the day ahead the calendar certainly looks like it should be a promising one and after yesterday's moves in the market which will come on to shortly could well be another decent day for trading after perhaps the Monday was a bit more lacklustre price yesterday was moving in quite a nice fashion helped mainly by the guy on my right Jerome Powell you can see the headline there ready to act if trade wars hit economy the guy must be going to sleep each night just praying that a trade war gets done so he doesn't have to cut rates which by all accounts is pretty much priced in to these markets but the fact that he was coming out yesterday and all but confirming they're going to do so if the the current state of play remains the same the markets loved it and we'll have a quick look over just yesterday's trading opportunities if you'd like now we'll have a look at the the S&P and stocks have their best day in five months in the US you can see what this looks like on a chart starting the last couple of days a failure to make that double bottom and you know you've got to give it credit where credit is due yesterday's briefing Anthony did mention how we thought stocks would recover how we wouldn't get a similar down day for the Fang stocks as well and price Julie pushed on we can see here just I'm coming under a bit of pressure this morning to what was the the low that I wouldn't get too excited about this just yet obviously got the the cash open for the the DAX in five minutes so we were keeping a close eye on that but stocks really pushing through every obstacle with with ease obviously the cash open comes around and this was a really nice trade opportunity so a couple people got in the push above the the previous high that came back down around about three o'clock or just before to find support for that push higher and I did see a few people still in the the market when we pushed to 2800 which would obviously been late last night it's a really good trades there with the the dubbish Fed from yesterday obviously gold has continued its journey higher this morning obviously helped by perhaps a bit of risk off into the market but the the the dollar has of course weakened over the period of a few days and gold has really been on some sort of journey as we pushed higher a market that had been struggling for a while pound also had a decent end to the day yesterday seems like a bit of a relief from that 26 failed test at that trend line and multi week year low as well although we are starting to see a tiny bit of a recovery here in the dollar and we do have a forer of Fed speakers later so promises again to be an interesting day for speaker wise which is what moved the market yesterday we did have some data out of course but in the term in the in the way of scheduled releases data wise it wasn't that that moved the market we did have some comments from feds Evans as well which at the time were if anything deemed hawkish from the market and the euro certainly came back down to the lower part of the day and you can see here was almost touching the pivot before power did come out the euro I guess was stuck within a bit of a range yesterday is really the stock markets that loved powers comments the most so let's be keeping an eye going into the morning what the DAX is doing now back towards yesterday's higher point that we reached around to 2 o'clock 145 so keeping a close eye on what happens in a few minutes back to the headlines obviously Jerome power the the main move but also yesterday what we had a course was the the Trump and main meeting I don't know if anyone watched this it was it was quite fun to to watch the the two of them just enjoying it actually and having a laugh and joke a lot different to if you remember the the Sun headlines from last time Trump was over where he basically threw me under the bus there was none of that no talking of any of the touchy subjects Iran or Huawei really was you know quite nice if you like and of course Trump came out with a big promise promising a phenomenal post Brexit trade deal which is optimistic to hope for the time duration on this as we know could be could be incredibly long so I wouldn't really get too carried away with the pound I guess you could argue liked it a touch it's you know positive for the pound outlook but really not something to get too carried away with at the moment evidently that the leadership race is going to drive the the pound shorter term and what happens from there where we get a deal or not then we can start talking about these things in a bit more future in the future I should say but Trump is comments on the on Britain itself it's the greatest alliance the world has ever known all of these comments obviously helping the sentiment just increase a touch a trade deal with the US of course is probably some way off and then would even be determined by how the UK split the EU as Mays planned envisioned if they do stay close to the EU then in order to negotiate a free trade deal with Washington is going to be incredibly unlikely so we keeping close tabs on what happens come October the 31st or beyond do we leave with a deal or a no deal or does it all get pushed back and and so on so it's something just to put on the back burner remembering these comments and then see what happens in the future as we know Trump can go back on his word instantly yesterday was talking about how everything is on the table including the NHS and then did an interview with Good Morning Britain taking it off the table effectively so I wouldn't get too carried away for now we talk about trade negotiations that US is currently doing the one with Canada and Mexico which was simply just amending an existing pact took over a year and still the deals fate remains unclear amid objections in Congress so this is yes a tiny bit of a positive but not something that I would be coming in today and just buying the pound as simply as that if we do have a look at the pound yesterday of course the the dovish Fed helped push us higher but you know if you look at just yesterday's price action here you couldn't really argue that much of it was down to this meeting so in summary good news for the future if true I wouldn't be getting too carried away and just having a look at this trend line from yesterday actually that's quite nice coming up to test that now previous higher of yesterday 127 handle technically really nice here for the power and is the dollar going to keep strengthening or is this level gonna hold would be one to keep a close eye on for now with the the leadership race I've just seen a really good tweet here from Adam Linton one of the guys at ran a squawking just about the process that it has to go down so any MP wanting to be lead that requires eight supporters to be in the running so this is their way of getting rid of the the deadwood effectively to sound harsh I guess nominations will be open and close and during the term so five more days for for the guys to get their names in cleverly withdrew his nomination yesterday it's the first one I've seen to do that field will be reduced to in a series of votes those votes taking place in the 13th the 18th the 19th and the 20th and then candidates will need to receive at least 16 votes to survive the first round 32 to survive the second the candidate with the fewest votes will be excluded in each round as we get down to the nitty gritty and they'll horse this could could take a while but conservatives graph group members will have the week beginning this 22nd of June so 17 days from now so the week beginning the 22nd of July to choose the winner out of these two in a postal ballot now if it was to completely drag on and and so on which of course it could worth noting that of course in August you have the recess period of Europe away so even if we do get a new leader in by then is much gonna get done in August I very much doubt it which leaves us September and October where there's political things going on as well so to get a deal a change in a deal by then I think is is quite unlikely and then you know even if we do in Parliament agree a new deal are the EU going to accept that I think there's still some weight to be had for the pound and Boris is reaffirming his position as favourite obviously the court order weighed on his odds a bit but if he is to come in and I think go there's still second favourite I do believe we will start to see it just a bit more of a down move in pound maybe not necessarily it's a dollar right now as of course you do have the the dovish fed but if we were to take a look at a market like the euro pound and let me to bring that into position here on this longer term chart you can see yesterday was the you know the biggest down day if you like the pound strength that we've had since well further may so really strong push higher and you know be keeping a close eye on what happens around here price action wise incredibly important going back to the 28th November that we had the breakthrough there of course beginning of the year to find resistance in February and we're now tracking around that point so I don't think the pound is out the woods certainly not against other asset pairs maybe for the dollar short term but in times of uncertainty you can see people buying the dollar back so I just wouldn't be I'd be just slightly careful there going back to the Jerome Powell comments now this was arguably the best opportunity in hindsight to buy stocks up but you know if we do you know we'll have a look back at the S&P in a moment it was already going high it recovered quite a bit if someone had said to you beginning of the week on Tuesday you know the Fang stocks are going to be down XY and Z percentage you're thinking well what an opportunity to get in what an opportunity and effectively that is is what happened those comments from from Powell speaking at a Chicago press conference signalling the central bank stood ready to cut interest rates saying it would act as appropriate to sustain the expansion amid the economic impact of escalating trade wars so I mentioned he's going to bed praying for a trade deal to be agreed and that's still very much the the case we do not know how or when these issues will be resolved he said in remarks that helped stoke a powerful rally on Wall Street and not just in Wall Street as well you can see if I just bring in the the Nikkei to picture just because I could see out the corner my eye you can see and again you'd argue that was the S&P or the NASDAQ or the Dow or the DAX a strong rally and just coming under a bit of pressure this morning so stocks love in life yesterday understandably but can that continue or not today remains to to be seen we are closely and you went on to say we are closely monitoring the impact of these developments for the US economic outlook and then referring to tariffs which have been in the past month been raised on imports from China and threatened on imports of Mexico he said the Fed would act as appropriate to stay saying the expansion with a strong labor market inflation near our symmetric 2% objective whether that will happen or not remains to be seen and and just on the the trade deal and all potential trade deal with the UK and the US it's worth just having a quick look over here at the current state of play with Britain so Britain sending half of its goods exports to the EU but only 16% to the US so Trump saying yesterday that it could nearly double or triple which really probably means less than that of course but at the you know that their current trade deal but at the moment you just can see the importance of the EU and that and I think any leader coming in even with these promises from our greatest ally needs to be a bit sensible early on but then you know on the flip side you'll have plenty of people saying listen this get out with no deal start a fresh yes it's gonna be you know struggle for the for the coming years but the potential is you know so high in the sky and we can get this massive new trade deal which triples with the US well it sounds all good on paper right whether it's realistic or not all of course remains to be seen also yesterday overnight let's have a quick look at WTI on the charts before coming back to the API figures not a bad reaction actually API you can see here usually not as big as this you can see we sort of guess we started 48 down to 85 quick math 66 which is a decent reaction and you see those numbers coming through there for the API figures all builds all builds crude you know big switch from the drawdown of 1.8 expected to a free and a half million barrel draw after four four straight days lower and of course the worst may in in in recent times managing to have an update yes they but underpinned by raising trade tensions the global economic picture has deteriorated these are the comments coming out overnight as well but this surprise build just weighing on on price a touch obviously DOEs later today will be the the main out well all things considered will be the main driver for where this market finishes with the correlation of S&P and oil I guess you could argue a bit of a break down yesterday but the same time the failure to make a new low despite that build could be telling could be telling maybe we're having this trend line drawn up today for later on as well acted quite well yesterday the trend line in a gauges sentiment you can see this one from the low through the effectively what were yesterday's lows that broke opportunity to get short and once we go above as well to go long and those guides a sentiment are pretty key I mean just looking here at the the S&P the comments yesterday from power about a rape cut will completely split the market you'll have people saying well they can't even deal with rates at this or this market is incredibly over overbought still and we're gonna come crashing down massively you've got as well the trade situation which isn't good you've got the idea that we're in a recession I know the stats over the weekend were that it's the longest the US hasn't been in recession since 1900 potentially obviously data could prove that otherwise but the recession fears the global trade fears the global slow down or well this markets got to come down on the flip side where you've got lower rates for longer potential of you know another round of QE coming in where this markets got to go higher and higher I did see an interesting article on Twitter on my way or is it maybe last night having a look about the impact historically of lowering rates in a rate cycle or pausing and the impact of the S&P and it's very much been an indicator that it's near the top the only you know point I would make is where the markets are different to what they were previously you know you didn't have the whole aspects of QE and myself my personal opinion is well we're going higher whether it be from right now I mean from a personal point of view I'm slightly slightly annoyed we didn't get down to 27-20 and the fear was as that was my entry should we have held I didn't have orders waiting there but it does look like we've we pushed higher but me and my personal view is we do continue to push on ever since coming into the markets in 2014 this market is just battled away then you know the China slow down Brexit Trump in a matter of days and pushed higher and I think that's still gonna be the case but the idea of the sentiment whichever way you have this bias where we're trading now 2800 or just above is is absolutely massive for that let's remove the the fib here and you can see on the daily chart and this is the futures of course we're looking at but just in terms of price action really really key to keep an eye on here and how we act around that level just having a quick look over at the calendar for today I mentioned earlier it's going to be an interesting one you can see all through the morning data out of Europe in the UK the services number at 930 out of the UK obviously the one to primarily focus on making up free quarters or near enough free quarters of the UK GDP number that's expected at 50.6 slight B or slight increase of last months you can see we did have a number below 50 and we're flirting around that number for quite some time now yeah we were keeping an eye on because of short term volatility but listen you've got there the Brexit scenario that's going to dry a price I think we've seen a couple of times where all things considered the pound should have moved of these data releases only to flick lower or higher or even not do too much but data wise you can see will be quite interesting to keep an eye on shortly got shortly I should say got the services number out Spain a couple of moments before it all comes out of Europe then relatively quiet I would say from give or take half 10 to 1 o'clock European lunchtime as you'd expect so of course maybe that's when you just reanalyze the the markets but then we do have the ADP number quarter past one ahead of non-farm payrolls on Friday so good back end to the week here and then we've got the composite final PMI the market comes in PMI the ISM non manufacturing and the services numbers at 2 45 and 3 o'clock before the DOE numbers at half three that alone would be enough to have people's interest but we do as well have you know quite a few speakers it so should be a good day for for the markets either scheduled or non-scheduled data or speakers as well that I would want to be on my toes for and ready to react having a quick look over the markets act how we stand obviously just going through eight o'clock so we'll start off with the DAX here bring this in so it's continued it's it's moved to the dance I got an important level here of the overnight low from quarter past seven UK time yesterday so be keeping a quote close on that breakthrough to the downside early morning you might see US equities follow suit as they're just finding support or have been finding support on the overnight highs as well the NASDAQ water recovery water recovery again that overnight high just been tested now so keeping an eye on the DAX going forward the dollar I mean it's pretty much exactly flat right now so we've you know we've data coming out I'd wait wait a bit just to get an idea what the euro against the dollar certainly gonna do 9.30 for the pound obviously got a lot of speakers in the afternoon as well but just before we have a quick look over some of the other charts just with this euro I think it's worth noting that yes we have had a strong recovery but again it's like looking at the stock market upside down in in the fact that you know if we do get higher or I should say the fang stocks if we do get higher we want a great opportunity to look to go short and where could that be one 14 looks quite good this whole area certainly from a medium term trade I think the overall the dollar's gonna remain stronger than say the euro all things considered in this area between one 14 124 and the futures I quite like whether we could get that by the end of the week or not I think remains to be seen there's gonna be a few twists and turns yet but now stocks is finding a bit of support bonds just coming off their highs we did have a bit of a break above this trend channel in the bund and tea notes also followed suit you can see here back up towards some of those highs from yesterday morning but we're just retreating a touch any questions as usual please do get them in the chat or if you're watching on YouTube in the comment section but I hope you all have a great trading day promises at least on paper to be a good one