 You're welcome back. We're glad to know you're still there. It's the breakfast on plus TV Africa and right now we're looking at the fact that Nigerians are groaning as higher fuel prices shrink incomes and worsen poverty and to help us talk with about that is Mr. Shagun Shokwiton principal partner Woodridge and Scott and he's here in the capacity of public affairs analyst. Good morning and welcome to the program sir. Good morning I do hope you slept well I'm asking you this. We do hope you've woken up well and today is going to be a wonderful day. Now fuel prices have gone up in fact in some places it's bought as far as high as 700 Naira but officially so to speak it's like 617 Naira there about 650 617 just fluctuating between those prices. Well let's just take your comments as what you think the lifestyle of the people would be now as the fuel prices have gone up and there's a likelihood it will still go up. Welcome to the new Nigeria is the person that I'd like to say you know to everybody I mean this is the way it's likely to be for the near future and I say this because I do not see any type of engagement on the part of Nigerians that would make the government to have everything in the past you know you wouldn't have this quantum of an increase before you would have heard from organized labor civil society students groups professional bodies and protests and strikes would have been you know the song of the day but we in the new Nigeria for some reason everybody is approaching the matter from a point of view of helplessness you know so it's a new Nigeria and I think that to address the point that you make about adjusting because this is our reality I think it's important that people begin to think all they can do to survive this of course we've spoken extensively about the proprietary you know the necessity of this decision it's a completely different conversation but that decision has been made and we need to think together on what to do to survive and you find that people as usual as human beings you must survive so people are already taking measures some people have had to leave their jobs because simply because the salaries that they were being paid in in those jobs no longer cover the transportation costs sufficiently to leave enough for other things you know transportation costs has risen up to as much as 80% of some people's salaries 60% you know and all of that and it has those jobs became more sustainable so people have had to leave and you and I know trekking is no longer an exercise it's no longer a fitness activity or a lot of Nigerians now you know people have to try to work to and fro walking distances as much as 15 kilometers 10 kilometers 20 kilometers both ways every day in the scorching heat sometimes you know so those are the adjustment that we are making and I want to suggest that if you if you own a car aside from the obvious and natural reaction of limiting how often you go out your driving pattern and your driving style might need to change and you know this is a very serious conversation you you could save as much as 50% of your fuel consumption by simply making very minor adjustments to how you drive sudden acceleration sudden braking consumes a lot of fuel maintaining a steady pace you know through your trip not necessarily not going fast you can go fast without consuming a lot of fuel but just maintaining a steady pace and save you a lot if you have a car that has an onboard computer that gives you the reading of your fuel consumption use it make sure that that is what is displayed on your screen as you drive because to tell you how many liters per kilometer that you are using and these things now it's no longer just a nice gadget to have in your car it could very well be a survival tool because it could save you as much as 50,000 Naira maybe even 60 maybe 100,000 Naira per month depending on your on your on your lifestyle and your movement pattern so you know these are just some little tips there's so many other things that we need to do just to adjust to this new real estate and like you say we need to remember that these prices are likely to go up again you know once exchange rate settles at any at a range that is higher by 50 to 100 Naira from what we have today and once cool dog prices move higher from the 80 dollar there about that we have today there will be an adjustment again upwards there's a possibility of an adjustment downwards but you know your guess is as good as mine as to which one is more likely to happen and I think it's also important to point out that even though the NMPC says that the market have been liberalized and its market forces that are play but you find that prices pump prices are still being adjusted at the prompting of the NMPC we have to keep an eye on this something does not add up we claim that the oil marketers whether majors or independents are the ones that are now importing petroleum products and that prices are being set just by by the cost that they incur in doing that and yet it is NMPC that leads the way in establishing price increases why so this is a question that we would is it because they are for now still the largest importer or are we still in some sort of regulated market even though we claim that we have the regulated so there's still a lot of questions that we need answers to as we go along this journey yeah well the issue of fuel price hike seems to have swallowed the issue of dollars just about yesterday or so we hear that the Naira or the dollar sold for about 800 and something Naira and it fluctuates like that from 750 which is almost like a constant now to 800 back and forth like that we're not even looking at the dollar which also because I see that in Nigeria everything hangs on fuel and the exchange rate but now fuel is swallowing the dollar we don't we are not talking much about the dollar is it that we are comfortable or do you think we it's something that we should keep talking about and you think there is a solution that can come well as far as the value of the Naira is concerned and the exchange rate of the Naira to other currencies especially the US dollars we it's it's a it's again you know it's a new journey just started this to operate this new policy this new regime and we have to wait to see how the market settles like you say right now we have a lot of volatility yesterday the dollar closed at 860 Naira thereabouts the day before it closed at 744 in the official markets you know so that that swing a hundred Naira swing in just a one-day period tells you that volatility is a big problem it tells you that the market has not settled it tells you that there's a lot of speculation and there's still a lot of doubt instructive in all of this is the fact that the unification of the exchange rate the abolition of the multiple official rates you know policy has been in operation now for over a month so we shouldn't be talking about volatility and you know you know the markets are very dynamic and the market usually would settle within a decent amount of time not months so this volatility is suggestive that there's a problem in the mechanism and in the mechanics of market today I have repeatedly advocated that if you want to float your exchange rate you must also be willing to remove as many exchange control restrictions that you have in place if you feel to exchange rate and you do not remove those restrictions supply will not match demand and the only way will be up as far as the price or exchange rate is concerned we have done the one we have not done the order enough so we have floated the value of you know the mechanism for determining the value of the night against the US dollars but the extreme cash controls that we have had for decades in the foreign exchange markets have not been lifted we've done a few so for example the restrictions on the use of local Naira debit cards for international transactions have now been lifted that restriction was put in place by the former well the suspended CBN government in the early days of the baria administration and onwards the restriction kept getting tighter and tighter until it was no longer allowed at all that restriction has been lifted now so that's an example of one good response from you know from the authorities which regards to exchange control but there's still so many others that need to go in order to encourage the holders of liquidity to bring their money in and that has not happened if we don't do that then the likely direction of the exchange rate will be up okay well we're talking about the poverty that people have been subjected to because of the hike in fuel prices and all that we're blaming fuel price hike but the poverty is going round and it's coming from multiple sources and heating Nigerians really hard but there is this news I don't know whether we should be happy about it or be sad about it because we know that the FAAC are going to share the 1.959 trillion Naira you know this is like like triple what was shared in June so the states the local governments the federal government they are going to share this money 1.959 trillion and the last time money was shared it was a 786.161 billion Naira that was shared in June so this time around this is there is so much money that will be shared by the street government is that something that we are supposed to rejoice over that you think that so much money coming to the states will will cushion the effect of these as fuel subsidy removal will cushion the effects we are facing as Nigerians now because of the price hike in the in the in fuel and so many it will remove some people from poverty that we are crying this morning that people are now falling into well it's very interesting you know that you bring this up because I'm discussing with a friend yesterday look it's important to note yes the removal of the subsidy will have an impact on the fiscal policy of government and availability of revenues perhaps hopefully and perhaps that may be what we are seeing however it is important to note that typically by pattern July if you check the historical records of FAC allocation which you know usually be published has been published in the days of the minister was your word your weather July has always traditionally traditionally in the highest so for example whilst previous months last year around 700 billion 600 billion Naira was shared by FAC in July of 2022 FAC that was shared FAC allocation that was shared or disbursed was 1.2 trillion July you know as against 1.01 trillion in June of that same year so look let's not make sensationalize what needs not be sensationalized we do not know yet what the effect of the subsidy removal has been we know what to expect but whether what we expect is what we will see and the impact of what we see eventually if it don't if we do see it we do not know what that impact will be until we experience it and I think that the point still needs to be made that as fantastic as it is to create this additional revenue buffer for government the revenue is useless to the people if they do not feel the benefits in their lives as quickly as possible if their lives as a result of additional revenue has become significantly harder in a manner that perhaps is avoidable that is the conversation that I think we need to have it's very good to increase government revenues because government can then do more but is this the only way to achieve that is there a better way is there an easier way is there a way to achieve that without impoverishing more Nigerians if you have poverty at you know you have already 130 million Nigerians living in multi-dimensional poverty you have an unemployment rate of over 30% if you add on the employment of over 50% you know is this the time to do this where you then push more people below the poverty line push more people into the job labor market you know because they simply can sustain you know their jobs and all of that you know so I think that that's the commission we had celebrating an increase in factor location for me now is superficial okay while we wrap up because this actually will be the last questions as we wrap up they the National Assembly has said that the president should lift embargo on unemployment do you think this is a solution to the poverty that is ravaging the land now I mean we're talking about a federal government that pays 30 million dollars 30,000 minimum wage how can that solve the problem and plus how many people can the federal government is not employed what is the workforce of the federal government you know so asking the federal government to lift embargo as a potential solution to what we're experiencing now is a mood point it's it does nothing we need coherent policymaking from government to address the issues that are being created by the policies of the same government that is what we need at the moment and right now I'm afraid we're not seeing enough of that even the policy of removing subsidy appears as we have seen with the back and forth and the flip flopping not to have been implemented in a coherent manner and in fact has not been implemented in line with the plan of the government itself you know so that is what we need to speak to asking government to lift embargo on unemployment again is very superficial okay we'd like to thank you Mr. Shokwiton for coming on the program thank you for your time you're welcome yeah we've been talking with Mr. Shokwiton principal partner Woodridge and court consulting and we'll we were talking on the fact that people are falling into poverty because of the the hike in the fuel price and so many other issues that are making Nigerians to become poorer and poorer he provides some solutions and we do hope that everybody will be patient enough and we'll also think outside the box to make sure that you regulate the way you live your life and then you wait for the solutions that may come in a short time or not too long a time in our lives let's leave to see that Eldorado for Nigeria as we are hoping we'll take a short break when we return we'll go to the next hot topic stay with us