 How badly has the British government handled the coronavirus crisis? Has their strategy and messaging changed over time? And with more than 2,300 people dead so far and that number rising rapidly, did they fail to understand the scale of the challenge which confronted them just a few weeks ago? Allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population. We're going to have to generate what we call herd immunity. 60% is the sort of figure you need to get herd immunity. To build up some degree of herd immunity. Herd immunity is not our goal or policy, it's a scientific concept. Our policy is to protect lives. Many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time. Stay at home folks, protect our NHS, save lives. There are actually a few coronavirus patients and I shook hands with everybody. The rate of infection has been doubling every three to four days. We're already seeing the government try to cast blame elsewhere, whether that's China or the general public. Some of the reporting from China was not clear. Is China to blame for Britain's slow response? Or did our politicians only realise the scale of the problem when it was all too late? And should we really be blaming all the members of the public or does that just let the government off the hook? Why in your view are people ignoring the advice? Well I don't know because it's very selfish. COVID-19 is a pandemic, an act of nature. It was always going to take lives, whatever happened. But it's the actions that states have taken that have so far saved lives. That's why per head, South Korea, Norway and Germany have far fewer deaths than countries like Britain, the US and Sweden. People are inevitably going to die from this virus and factors like an older population like in Italy matter. But how societies respond through measures like testing, social distancing, lockdowns and protective equipment can also make a critical difference. Now when you're dealing with a crisis, the first thing you need to do is appreciate the scale of the problem. When did British politicians start doing that? Let's look at the timeline. The first known case of COVID-19 was in Wuhan, China back in November 2019. By December it was clear that there was human-to-human transmission of this virus. Now doctors who tried to raise the alarm with colleagues about this new disease in late December were reprimanded and the Chinese authorities failed to publicly acknowledge there was human-to-human transmission which was of critical importance until January, where which time a 61 year old male had died in case had been reported in Thailand and Japan. This was wrong and is why parts of the British press and government are now seeking to blame the Chinese authorities. But that was just the start. On January 23rd Britain's Department of Health issued its first press release on COVID-19 reassuring the public that the risk to the UK population has been assessed as low and that any visitors to Wuhan, the epicentre of the breakout in China, should quote, maintain good hand, respiratory and personal hygiene. But within 24 hours this press release, the city of Wuhan and others in Hubei province went into complete lockdown, making that advice immediately obsolete. On January 24th six Chinese doctors published an article in the Lancet a globally recognised medical journal stating COVID-19 could have the acquired ability for efficient human transmission. Furthermore, and of even greater concern, was how it was already clear that high numbers of those affected required intensive care treatment. That combination of easy transmission and intensity would soon overwhelm healthcare systems around the world. And yet the British government at this point, like many others, still fail to see the threat. On that same day, the 24th of January, Britain's Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty claimed, quote, we all agree that the risk the UK public remains low, but there may well be cases in the UK at some stage. We've tried and tested measures in place to respond. The UK is well prepared for these types of incidents with excellent readiness against infectious diseases. By this point the potential severity of the virus was clear and the British authorities had accepted that there may be cases of COVID-19 in the UK at some stage, but they remained adamant. Measures already in place were sufficient. Three days later on January 27th, that stance was repeated as Health Secretary Matt Hancock told Parliament that there were no confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK and that the risk the UK population was, quote, low. Answering parliamentary questions on both the 29th and 30th of January, the government repeated that claim, although it now advised against all travel to Hubei Province. Advised being odd because Wuhan was already in lockdown as the death toll in China jumped to 170 and the virus began to spread across Hubei Province rapidly. On January 31st, Britain left the European Union. Now it could be argued that given the importance of that moment in the government's agenda, they'd taken their eye off the ball and yet even in the days and weeks that followed, their response to the COVID-19 threat remained only the same. On the same day, Britain had its first two known cases of the virus with two Chinese students in York testing positive. As late as the 7th of February, Public Health England repeated how, quote, the risk to individuals remains low, appearing to contradict the stance of other government agencies and the World Health Organization. Indeed, it was so confident the UK had sufficient capacity, it said it was, quote, testing samples from countries that do not have assured testing capabilities. What is more, despite Wuhan being a lockdown for two weeks where large numbers of people were being taken into intensive care, the government's advice was that if you traveled from Hubei to the UK in the previous 14 days, to quote, immediately, even if you do not have symptoms of the virus, stay indoors and avoid contact with other people as you would with the flu. They also instructed people to call NHS 111 to inform them of their recent travel abroad. It added, if you've returned to the UK from China, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau in the last 14 days and developed symptoms of cough or fever or shortness of breath, you should immediately stay indoors and avoid contact with other people. Even now, with WHO having declared a global emergency, the British government's approach was about self-regulation and critically, no testing, which, whenever mentioned by the British government at this point, was related purely to helping other countries. We know that large numbers of people infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic, meaning at this point, there could have been hundreds of people passing on the virus to their friends, housemates or family members without knowing, even if they did choose to voluntarily self-isolate. And because the virus can take more than a week to incubate, those people in turn would pass it on, even if they self-isolated after becoming sick. By this point, it was clear, the British government was not taking this as seriously as they should. It was only on February 10th that the Department for Health and Social Care declared, quote, the incidents or transmission of novel coronavirus constitutes a serious and imminent threat to public health. In the week that followed, the virus itself was still seen as primarily being an issue of foreign policy, not a domestic concern. The foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, said, the UK is a world leader in tackling global health issues, spending $6.5 billion over the last five years. Thanks in part to the centre of excellence that is the NHS, British doctors have been at the centre of the response to every major disease outbreak around the world in recent decades, and coronavirus is no different. Yet, until just six days before that, people were coming to the UK from the affected area and they weren't being tested. I've been through essentially no screening process. Furthermore, any self-isolation was entirely voluntary. On the 24th of February, China and the WHO held a joint press conference and told the world that, at the peak of the outbreak in Wuhan, exhausted medical staff like personal protective equipment, and that China's hospitals needed to invest in more ventilators. Now, the advice to other nations was clear, with Dr Bruce Ellwood, a senior WHO advisor, being completely candid about its scale, declaring complacency is the single biggest risk. Thinking you've beaten this virus is the single biggest risk. It was now long established that the virus was easily transmittable, dangerous and overwhelmed, even well-resourced healthcare systems. What is more, the Chinese experience demonstrated the need for far greater capacity of ventilators and safety equipment for healthcare workers. Now, it was around this time at the end of February that in a story published in the Sunday Times, it was alleged that Downing Street Advisor Dominic Cummings outlined the government's strategy at a private engagement. Those presents say it was dramatically at odds with the scientific evidence so far and the recommendations of the World Health Organization, with the quote in the Times reading, herd immunity, protect the economy, and if that means some pensioners die, too bad. Despite the first known case as being as far back as late January, it wasn't until 3rd March the UK government announced its official coronavirus action plan. Even now, however, the tone was off, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson failing to convey the severity of the crisis, telling people they should simply wash their hands with soap and water for the length of time, that it takes to sing happy birthday twice. On the 5th of March, Johnson sowed yet more confusion when he appeared on a daytime TV show. The Prime Minister even shook hands with his TV host after saying this. This was done more than a month after it was widely known that COVID-19 spread remarkably easily and was far more fatal than seasonal flu. Even now, however, the Prime Minister failed to take it seriously. On the 10th of March, the government was still saying there was no rationale to postpone sporting events in Britain because of coronavirus. The Cheltenham Horse Racing Festival went ahead that day, attended by a quarter of a million people. It would later be found that 10 of those people were infected by the virus. Meanwhile, close to home, Johnson announced on the 12th of March that testing of people with mild symptoms would stop, flying in the face of World Health Organization advice. The next day on the 13th, his chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, appeared to repeat the alleged comments of Dominic Cummings. We do face the prospect of, as the Prime Minister said yesterday, of an increasing number of people dying. In other words, for hundreds of thousands of people to die and millions to enter emergency care. And one more thing. The premise of herd immunity is that once you've had coronavirus, you're immune. And the thing is, we don't know how long that immunity might actually last for. The science remains unclear. After all, this virus has only been known to us since December last year. At this point, it was a matter of speculation on radio and TV news as to whether we should be seeing a similar number of casualties to Second World War. What do you think was tougher? Living through the blitz or living through this virus? Living through this virus. And this from a government which for weeks have been claiming to be well prepared and for the risk to be low. On March 15th, the Health Secretary met Hancock told Sky News the country had around 5,000 ventilators, but that we need many more times more than that. The urgent need for ventilators has been established in the last three weeks earlier. And yet, at this point, the government had failed to consider procuring new ones or building any extra healthcare capacity. The following day, on March 16th, Hancock asked ventilator manufacturers in a tweet to contact the government. A tweet. If nothing else, surely this would underline a lack of preparedness with several of his Tory cabinet minister colleagues doing likewise. This was the same Matt Hancock who just six weeks earlier had said that the risk to British nationals was lower than the country was well prepared, but now the government was beginning to acknowledge a full blown crisis and in real time on social media. Yet still, the Prime Minister himself didn't appear to be taking things seriously. On the 16th of March, Johnson stated that risks of transmission of the disease at mass gatherings such as sporting events are relatively low. And while he advised people to avoid bars, cafes and pubs, these places remained open with his own father appearing on daytime television saying he would go to one. Of course I go to a pub if I need to go to a pub. The following day on the 17th, as Johnson shared a conference call with ventilator manufacturers, he reportedly joked about this as Operation Last Gasp. By that point, 71 people had died. By the 20th of March, the first reports of hospitals being overwhelmed were coming in. And despite the government repeatedly saying that NHS staff would have all the equipment they needed, staff reported back that they were wearing paper masks, plastic aprons and gloves instead of full PPE. We've had doctors tell us that they feel like lambs to the slaughter. All of this was a month after the exact same shortages were highlighted by the WHO and healthcare professionals in Wuhan. Here, as with ventilators and so much else, the government had failed to act as it should have. And it wasn't until the 23rd of March that Johnson finally announced some form of lockdown. Two months after the original action had been taken in Wuhan, where it had been shown to work. By now, the UK death toll exceeded 300 and Johnson told the country that the coronavirus is the biggest threat this country has faced for decades. But just a week earlier, mass gatherings like concerts and sports events, major risks for transmission, were still going ahead. This concert in Cardiff was held on March the 14th. Four days later, on the 27th of March, the death toll stood at 759. The editor of The Lancet, Richard Horton, lamented that the NHS had been wholly unprepared for this pandemic and called it a national scandal, the gravity of which has yet to be understood. He slammed both the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser for not heeding the warnings from China early enough. They had a duty to immediately put the NHS and British public on high alert, Horton said. February should have been used to expand coronavirus testing capacity, ensure the distribution of WHO-approved personal protective equipment, and establish training programs and guidelines to protect NHS staff. They didn't take any of those actions. The result was chaos and panic across the NHS. Patients will unnecessarily die. NHS staff will die unnecessarily. How could we allow this to happen? The hypocrisy of clapping NHS workers and yet the government not supporting them to go into that front line is tragic. It's not uncommon for some of our staff to have had panic attacks. I'd assumed that it would be the older and the sicker, but some of them are coming through who are young and fit. The following day, on the 28th of March, Stephen Powis, the medical director of NHS England, openly conceded that if we can keep deaths below 20,000, we've done very well in this epidemic. 20,000 deaths. Less than three weeks after the government said there was no rationale to postpone sporting events like Cheltenham, and a little more than two weeks after it decided that testing people with mild symptoms was unnecessary, contrary to WHO advice, test, test, test. 20,000 deaths was now being presented as a success story. Given that remarkable U-turn, with it becoming ever clearer that the government had been asleep at the wheel, it's no surprise that more recently there has been a concerted effort to blame the public and, yes, China. And yet, it's the government which failed to act quickly and decisively enough. The choices they made have, without any doubt, cost the lives of many, many people. We'll find out just how many in the weeks and months ahead. For now, however, Britain is on the same trend as Italy, despite having precious additional weeks to prepare. While the government failed to respond appropriately for a month, if not more, is unclear. It is likely that the accumulation of a general election hangover, similar scares in previous years, failing to be bad as predicted, and a default among Britain's political class to think they're somehow immune to tragedies elsewhere, all played their part. And yet, we now know we aren't different. For a government to go from a low threat to 20,000 deaths would be an outstanding achievement, and all in the space of two months, is a spectacular failure from the Prime Minister to the Department for Health and the government's scientific advisers. Action now taken will undoubtedly save lives, but from testing to protective equipment to simply failing to comprehend the scale of the problem until it was too late, the government's previous actions seem almost inexplicable. This is, without any doubt, one of the single greatest failures of government planning in recent history. And how do NHS workers view things, the one taking risks to keep us safe after years of budget cuts and rising work clothes? We are literally making it up as we go along, said one, according to Lancet. It feels as if we're actively harming patients, said another. Total carnage. Forget lockdown, we're going into meltdown. When I was country director in many conflict zones, we had better preparedness. The hospitals in London are overwhelmed. And finally, the public and media aren't aware that today we are no longer living in a city with a properly functioning Western healthcare system. A health crisis was inevitable, but calamity of this magnitude, well, that was a result of political negligence. In the months and years ahead, when people look back and reflect on what went wrong, whether that's an inquest or inquiry, if it is found that herd immunity was a strategy adopted and pushed by senior members of government, advisors, ministers, scientists, well, those people would be responsible for the lives of many, many people. What's more, they should never be welcome in public life ever again.